BF Biosciences (BFBIO): 2QFY25 Earning Preview - By Sherman Research

Feb 25 2025


Sherman Securities


  • BF Biosciences (BFBIO) is set to announce its 2QFY25 results on February 27. The company is expected to report net profit of Rs203mn (EPS Rs2.3) compared to EPS of Rs1.31 during previous quarter.
  • We expect BFBIO to post earnings growth of 77%QoQ. The rise in profitability is likely due to improved margins, as the company shifted its sales focus to highermargin products instead of low-margin toll-manufactured products.
  • Additionally, other income from interest on unutilized IPO proceeds further contributed to earnings growth. Finance costs are also expected to decline by 29%QoQ, supported by the repayment of long-term loans and a reduction in the policy rate.
BF Biosciences (BFBIO): 2QFY25 Earning Preview - By Sherman Research

Feb 25 2025


Sherman Securities


  • BF Biosciences (BFBIO) is set to announce its 2QFY25 results on February 27. The company is expected to report net profit of Rs203mn (EPS Rs2.3) compared to EPS of Rs1.31 during previous quarter.
  • We expect BFBIO to post earnings growth of 77%QoQ. The rise in profitability is likely due to improved margins, as the company shifted its sales focus to highermargin products instead of low-margin toll-manufactured products.
  • Additionally, other income from interest on unutilized IPO proceeds further contributed to earnings growth. Finance costs are also expected to decline by 29%QoQ, supported by the repayment of long-term loans and a reduction in the policy rate.
BF Biosciences (BFBIO): Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Sherman Research

Nov 28 2024


Sherman Securities


  • BF Biosciences (BFBIO) conducted analyst briefing session today, wherein the management discussed financial results and future outlook of the company.
  • The company reported a 44% growth in net revenue for 1QFY25, driven primarily by a 39% increase in volume, with the remainder attributed to price hikes. ICON was the largest contributor to revenue, followed by RIFAXA, ERTITREGEN, and VORIF.
  • Updating on Line 2 , the management conveyed that production dedicated to pre-filled syringes, has commenced. Depreciation for this new line will be recognized starting next quarter. Meanwhile, the combination and lyophilization lines are in the validation phase.
Pakistan Pharmaceuticals: FEROZ & BFBIO: Analyst briefing takeaways – By Insight Research

Nov 27 2024


Insight Securities


  • Ferozsons Laboratories Limited & BF Biosciences held its analyst briefing to comment on their financial result and to shed light on future outlook. Highlights of the session are given below:
  • Production from BFBIO’s Line 2 which is dedicated to prefilled syringes has commenced. From the next quarter, depreciation would be realized for this line. The combo line and lyophilization line are currently in the validation phase.
  • The company emphasized that semaglutide is a highly profitable product, boasting a margin of 40-50%. To highlight, Semaglutide is not a perfect substitute for type 1 diabetes but can effectively be used for type 2 diabetes.
BF Biosciences (BFBIO): Downgraded to ‘Hold’ – By Sherman Research

Nov 18 2024


Sherman Securities


  • BF Biosciences launched its IPO on September 25, 2024, with a floor price of Rs55/share. Thanks to an overwhelming response from investors, the IPO was oversubscribed by 3.4x, closing at a strike price of Rs77/share. We initiated coverage with a ‘Buy' recommendation on its IPO (please refer our report titled ‘BF Biosciences IPO - New Diabetes Business, a game changer: Subscribe’)
  • Since its listing on October 21, BFBIO has delivered an impressive 60% return, significantly outperforming the pharmaceutical sector’s 28% gain in the same period. Thus, due to sharp rally, we are downgrading our stance to ‘Hold’. BFBIO is trading at FY25 PE of 18x
  • BF Biosciences has been a leader in life-saving drug production from its advanced facility in Lahore, focusing on treatments for cancer, hepatitis C, and other critical conditions.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 18.4; PAT up 43%YoY/down 12%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 18.4. 1QCY25 PAT up 43%YoY. UBL is also expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 12/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to go up 2xYoY/9%QoQ, driven by robust growth in current accounts and a lower cost of funds as changes to the MDR regime go into effect, along with a drop in leverage on a sequential basis – offsetting the pressure on yields, specially on the Bank’s investment portfolio.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Closed above 30-DMA - By JS Research

Apr 15 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index posted a gain of 1,537 points to close at 116,390. Volumes stood at 485mn shares compared to 459mn shares traded in the previous session. The index has closed above the 30-DMA which will now provide support at 115,535, followed by 114,357 (50-DMA). However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 116,500-117,300 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have improved, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,593 and 116,840 levels, respectively.
Morning News: IMF concludes Pak visit, set to propose transparency reforms - By Vector Research

Apr 15 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified key shortcomings in Pakistan's governance, including the politicisation of the civil service, weak organisational accountability, and excessive focus on short-term goals. These issues, the IMF noted, contribute to broader governance weaknesses and increase vulnerability to corruption. The report which is expected to be made public by August this year will give recommendations for ensuring greater transparency and improving the public sector delivery by minimising the chances of corruption and through merit-based decisions.
  • With the halt of USAID operations by President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s total portfolio of $445 million has been affected over five years, surfacing a gap of $40 million for the current fiscal year for on-budget development projects. “However, in a positive development on the external front, Fitch Ratings might upgrade Pakistan’s rating within a few days”, top official sources confirmed while talking to The News on Monday. The Fitch might upgrade from a notch of CCC+ to BBB keeping in view the reduced risk of default.
  • Members of the delegation of US congressmen visiting Pakistan have described their trip to the South Asian country as "extremely productive" and “significant for the future", which is good news for the mineral-rich country. The delegation also attended the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) last week in Islamabad.
Morning News: Trade gap with ME widens - By WE Research

Apr 15 2025



  • Pakistan’s trade deficit with the Middle East widened by 9.75% to $9.35 billion in the first eight months of FY25, mainly due to a surge in petroleum imports, particularly a 20.29% increase in crude oil volumes. While exports to the region rose modestly—by 3.56% to $2.095 billion—imports jumped 8.56% to $11.44 billion during the same period. Despite a narrowing of the trade gap in FY24 due to lower petroleum consumption, the deficit has grown again, raising concerns. Pakistan recently signed a free trade agreement with GCC states to address the imbalance, with notable export growth to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Exports to Saudi Arabia rose 10.59% and to the UAE by 5.84% during July-February, while imports from both also fluctuated. However, exports to Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar declined significantly, while imports from these countries mostly increased, further contributing to the widening trade deficit.
  • In the upcoming 2025–26 federal budget, the Pakistani government is expected to raise taxes on a wide range of food and beverage items to increase tax revenue. Proposed measures include doubling the excise duty on soft drinks, sweetened beverages, and juices from 20% to 40%, while introducing a new 20% tax on industrial dairy products. Meat products, bakery goods, and confectionery items— such as chocolate, pastries, and cereals—are also likely to face a 50% tax increase, along with frozen desserts and products made from animal or vegetable fats. These tax hikes are planned to be implemented gradually over three years. Simultaneously, the defence budget is set to increase by Rs159 billion to Rs2,281 billion for FY26, marking a 7.49% rise from the previous year and a Rs263.2 billion increase since FY24, highlighting a continued focus on national security amid broader fiscal reforms.
  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, chaired a high-level meeting on priority sector lending aimed at aligning Pakistan’s financial sector with the government's export-led growth agenda. Attended by key officials from the State Bank, the Pakistan Banks Association, and leading banks, the session emphasized the banking sector's vital role in facilitating foreign direct investment and supporting export-oriented industries. The minister highlighted the successful Pakistan Minerals Summit and Maersk Line’s $2 billion investment in maritime infrastructure as indicators of investor confidence. He stressed the need for sustainable, investment-led economic growth, avoiding past boom-bust cycles. Notably, this year’s budget process was initiated early, incorporating stakeholder feedback from commerce chambers. Zafar Masud of the PBA presented updates on banking support for agriculture, SMEs, and digital sectors, including initiatives like electronic warehouse receipt finance and SME performance indices. The minister concluded with a call for coordinated efforts to develop fintech-driven credit solutions for smallholder farmers and to ensure long-term economic transformation rooted in stability, inclusivity, and resilience.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL):1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 0.04; PAT of ~PKR 13Mn - By Taurus Reseach

Apr 14 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QFY25 EPS: PKR 0.04; PAT: PKR 13Mn, down 98%YoY over the SPLY.
  • Revenue is expected to grow slightly on a sequential basis due to seasonal pickup in demand. However, YoY topline may decline by 5% owing to the revised PPA structure, wherein ROE component has been shifted to the 'take-and-pay' basis, reducing guaranteed capacity revenues.
  • Finance costs & income are expected to undergo a structural shift – EPQL previously recorded sizable finance income from late payment surcharge, which has ceased following the full settlement of PKR 8.4Bn receivables. As a result, net finance income is expected to convert into finance cost, although lower short-term borrowings should limit the overall impact.
Pakistan Cement: FCCL & KOHC: 3QFY25 result previews - By JS Research

Apr 14 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We present 3QFY25 earnings expectations for Fauji Cement Company Ltd (FCCL) and Kohat Cement Company Ltd (KOHC).
  • We expect FCCL and KOHC to post earnings of Rs1.02/share and Rs12.89/share, reflecting growth of 41% and 23% YoY, respectively. This improvement is primarily driven by higher gross margins — up 3.3ppt YoY for FCCL and 8.5ppts for KOHC — supported by higher retention prices and lower coal costs during 3QFY25 compared to 3QFY24.
  • The proposed increase in limestone royalty rates in KPK, aligning them with those in Punjab, is expected to weigh negatively on both companies. However, reduction in power tariffs may partially offset this impact, given both companies' significant reliance on the national grid.
Pakistan Economy: Tariffs put USD 115Trn world economy at risk - By Taurus Research

Apr 14 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Global equity markets plunged enormously in the aftermath of the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on about 90 countries by the US President Donald Trump, putting the USD 115Trn global economy at risk. Wherein, the new tariff rates seemed to have been somewhat ludicrously calculated; inflicting disparate punishment on several countries, as they scrambled to renegotiate.
  • The tariffs include a 10% base-line tariff on all imports into the US, with additional tariffs of up to 34% on China (now raised to 145%), 20% on the EU, 29% on Pakistan, 26% on India and so on.
  • Accordingly, the MSCI World & the MSCI Emerging Markets Indices, which cover 85% of the free-float adjusted large-cap and mid-cap stocks in 23 developed and 24 emerging markets, respectively, were down ~11% owing to the announcement of the tariffs, with trillions of dollars being wiped out from the financial markets globally—amidst heightened global macroeconomic uncertainty, putting the USD 115Trn global economy at risk.
Pakistan Cement: Cement profitability likely to increase by 40% YoY in 3QFY25 Led by lower finance costs and higher sales - By Topline Research

Apr 14 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Cement Universe is expected to post profitability of Rs16.0bn in 3QFY25 against profit of Rs11.4bn in 3QFY24, up by 40% YoY, mainly due to lower finance costs and higher sales.
  • Net sales are anticipated to increase by 10% YoY to Rs93.7bn in 3QFY25 mainly due to higher YoY domestic retention prices and higher YoY total dispatches.
  • Finance costs in 3QFY25 is likely to decrease by 44% YoY to Rs2.8bn due to lower interest rates
Pak Elektron Limited (PAEL): Tariff Hike on China to Unlock US Transformer Market - By Sherman Research

Apr 11 2025


Sherman Securities


  • While accessing major implications of US tariffs on Pakistani manufacturers, we found out that PAEL seems to be one of the major beneficiaries of US-China Tariff war. Despite 29% Tariff imposition on Pakistani goods to US (currently paused for 90 days), higher tariff on Chinese goods (145%) may create additional demand for PAEL’s transformers as the company has already started exporting transformers to US from March 2025.
  • Our back of the envelope working suggest that for every 10% utilization of idle capacity, transformer business to generate additional annual earnings of Rs0.6/share (11% of CY25 earnings), provided we do not see dumping of goods by China.
  • PAEL is currently trading at CY25 PE of 7.8x versus last 3-year average PE of 9.6x. We have not yet incorporated the impact of US trade war with China on PAEL’s earnings.
Pak Elektron Limited (PAEL): Tariff Hike on China to Unlock US Transformer Market - By Sherman Research

Apr 11 2025


Sherman Securities


  • While accessing major implications of US tariffs on Pakistani manufacturers, we found out that PAEL seems to be one of the major beneficiaries of US-China Tariff war. Despite 29% Tariff imposition on Pakistani goods to US (currently paused for 90 days), higher tariff on Chinese goods (145%) may create additional demand for PAEL’s transformers as the company has already started exporting transformers to US from March 2025.
  • Our back of the envelope working suggest that for every 10% utilization of idle capacity, transformer business to generate additional annual earnings of Rs0.6/share (11% of CY25 earnings), provided we do not see dumping of goods by China.
  • PAEL is currently trading at CY25 PE of 7.8x versus last 3-year average PE of 9.6x. We have not yet incorporated the impact of US trade war with China on PAEL’s earnings.
Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW): 3QFY25 EPS to Clock in at Rs90.7 - By Sherman Research

Apr 10 2025


Sherman Securities


  • We present 3QFY25 earnings estimate for Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW) wherein company is expected to post net earnings of Rs5.4bn (EPS Rs90.7) as compared to net earnings of Rs3bn (EPS of Rs50.2), up 81%YoY. Furthermore, SAZEW is expected to announce a cash dividend of Rs20/share (up 2.5xYoY) in 3QFY25.
  • The growth in profitability is primarily driven by higher sales of Haval HEV SUVs coupled with higher sustained gross margins expected at 29.5% (supported by tax exemptions on HEV CKD imports).
  • On cumulative basis, net earnings are expected to reach Rs12.2bn (EPS Rs200) compared to net earnings of Rs4.4bn (EPS 73.6) up by 2.7xYoY during 9MFY25
Mughal Iron & Steel Industries Ltd. (MUGHAL): Conference Call Takeaways - By Sherman Research

Apr 8 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Mughal Iron & Steel Industries Ltd. (MUGHAL) conducted conference call today. The major area of focus remained the implications of reciprocal trade tariffs announced by US on international steel prices and the update on company’s upcoming hybrid captive power plant.
  • During1HFY25, company’s earnings declined by 83%YoY on the back decrease in gross margin and elevated finance cost.
  • Segment wise earnings show that non- ferrous business dragged overall earnings downward while ferrous business improved during 1HFY25 compared to same period last year.
Auto: Car Sales to decline by 9%MoM in March’25 - By Sherman Research

Apr 8 2025


Sherman Securities


  • The sales of leading car assemblers registered with PAMA are expected to decline, reaching 10,049 units in Mar’25 (down 9%MoM). However, on a quarterly basis, sales are projected to rise to 36,035 units in 3QFY25 (up 31% YoY).
  • We believe the monthly decline in sales is primarily due to the Ramzan effect and the entry of newly launched non-PAMA models in Mar’25 (BYD & JETOUR).
  • Interestingly Indus Motors (INDU) reported 3,131 units (up 20%MoM). This growth in sales is mainly due to higher sale of Yaris, Hilux models and Fortuner.
Fertilizer: Urea Sales Almost 5 Years Low - By Sherman Research

Apr 4 2025


Sherman Securities


  • According to provisional data, urea sales during Mar’25 is expected to clock in at 308k tons, down 54%YoY. Similarly, DAP sales to decline by 61%YoY. The YoY decline is mainly due to weak farm economics amid lower support prices and higher input costs.
  • Similarly, on MoM basis, urea sales is likely to decline by 11%MoM, mainly due to seasonal impact.
  • Urea sales of Fauji Group to clock in at 187k tons versus sales of 252k tons during the same period last year, down 26%YoY. Similarly, EFERT is likely to witness sharp decline in urea sales of 60%YoY to 59k tons as compared to 148k tons during the last year.
Economy: March CPI Clocked in at 0.7%YoY - By Sherman Research

Apr 3 2025


Sherman Securities


  • CPI for March’25 is recorded at 0.7%YoY compared to 1.5%YoY during the previous month thanks to decrease in food & housing index and base effect.
  • The food index reported disinflation (i.e. down 5.1%YoY) in March’25 which is highest decline since recent history. This decrease is primarily due to decline in prices of wheat flour (down 35%), wheat (down 35%), onions (down 71%), fresh vegetables (down 32%) and tomatoes (down 54%).
  • On a MoM basis, inflation increased by 0.9%MoM primarily driven by food index (up 1.9%MoM) and slight decline in housing index (down 0.1%MoM) mainly due to decline in electricity charges (down 1.3%MoM). The uptick in inflation was largely attributed to the Ramzan effect.
Ghandhara Automobiles Ltd (GAL): Upward Revision in Earnings, 3Q Preliminary Estimates - By Sherman Research

Mar 27 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Following our January 14, 2025, report, "Breaking Monopolies: GAL Introduces JAC T9 Hunter“, we are revising our earnings forecast upward by 34-62% for FY25-26 and raising our target price to Rs705 per share, driven by the T9 Hunter’s strong market response.
  • We maintain a “Buy” stance, as the stock is currently trading at an attractive FY26 P/E of 5.1x.
  • Our earlier assessment of the T9 Hunter (in pickup market) as a monopoly breaker has proven accurate as evidenced by its overwhelming market response. T9 Hunter’s appealing aesthetics and competitive pricing has driven exceptional demand, leading the company to pause bookings and increase price by 7.7% after just two weeks of launch. The strong demand appears sustainable, with current delivery timelines extending to Sep’25 coupled with lower-cost parts compared to competitors.
Economy: Pakistan’s Trade Deficit Held Steady in Feb’25 - By Sherman Research

Mar 19 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Detailed breakdown on trade numbers released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) show imports declined to US$4.8bn (down 9%MoM), during Feb’25 compared to US$5.3bn in Jan’25. Historically, imports tend to remain lower in February. This decline was primarily driven by lower imports in the petroleum, machinery and agriculture sectors on weighted average basis, while food imports remained flat.
  • During 8MFY25, import bill was recorded at US$37.9bn (up, 8%YoY) mainly due to higher imports of machinery, and textile groups, while petroleum imports remained flat. Moreover, credit to private sectors has increased to Rs13trn (up 18%YoY and 17% since in June’24), wherein manufacturing loans are up 10%YoY and textile 14%YoY.
  • Similarly, exports also declined to US$2.5bn (down 16%MoM) during Feb’24. However, during 8MFY25, exports clocked in at US$22bn (up 8%YoY), largely supported by growth in exports in the food and textile sectors.
Food & Personal Care: Sector Earnings Grew by Massive 54%YoY - By Sherman Research

Mar 13 2025


Sherman Securities


  • With falling oil prices, sharp reduction in interest rates and improvement in disposable income led by falling inflation, one sector which attracts investors’ attention is Food sector. Pakistan’s listed Food & Personal Care sector is mainly skewed towards edible oils, snacks & related, dairy products and bakery & processed as these four sector contribute 66% of the sector revenue.
  • Interestingly, Pakistan’s listed food & personal care sector has lower representation at PSX (9% of the total market capitalization) while most of the stocks are illiquid since food sector contribute only 4% of the free float market capitalization. However, with reduction in logistic cost led by declining fuel prices and falling interest rates, we may see larger participation in food sector as earning growth momentum to continue.
  • Based on our analysis of 23 listed companies, Pakistan’s combined listed Food & Personal Care industry posted robust profit of Rs13.8bn during Oct-Dec 2024 quarter compared to same quarter last year, up by massive 54%YoY. This growth is mainly led Bakery and processed sector (including MFL,BNL,NATF,GIL), Beverages & Fruit sector (SHEZ, MUREB, QUICE, MFFL), dairy sector (PREMA, FFL, FECLP, NESTLE) and personal care sector (TREET, ZIL, SCL, GLPL, COLG) as these sub sectors grew by massive 300%, 148%, 75% and 39%, respectively (see table no.2).
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