Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDC): 2QFY25 EPS expected to clock in at PKR 9.03, down by 48% YoY, DPS PKR 3.00 - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 25 2025


Alpha Capital


  • OGDC is expected to announce its 2QFY25 results, wherein we expect the company to report an EPS of PKR 9.03, down by 48% YoY. Along with the result, the company is expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 3.00/share.
  • Net sales for 2QFY25 expected to clock in at PKR 102.1bn, compared to PKR 115.2bn in SPLY, down 11% YoY mainly on the back of lower oil prices (-11.5% YoY), and a PKR appreciation of 1.8% YoY against the greenback.
  • Exploration expenses are projected at PKR 6.1bn (2.6x YoY) for 2Q FY 25 compared to PKR 2.4bn in SPLY, due to a dry well encountered at Kandewaro-1.
Oil and Gas Exploration: OGDC and PPL completes feasibility study of the Reko Diq project - By Topline Research

Mar 26 2025


Topline Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC), and Pakistan Petroleum (PPL) announced completion of the feasibility study of the Reko Diq project.
  • To recall, State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), including OGDC, PPL, and Government Holdings Private (GHPL), collectively hold a 25% stake in the Reko Diq Project through a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), with each company holding an equal stake of 8.33%.
  • As per the feasibility study, Reko Diq has a lifespan of 37 years, divided into 2 phases
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): Gas discovery at Soghri North-1, Attock - By AKD Research

Mar 17 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has successfully made a discovery at the Soghri North-1 exploratory well in Attock District, Punjab, yielding 13.95mmcfd of gas and 430bpd of oil, respectively. Notably, this marks OGDC’s seventh successful discovery/ production enhancement during CYTD, reflecting company’s improving ability to carry E&P activities, supported by a strengthened liquidity position. We estimate the new find to contribute annualized EPS impact of PkR1.03/sh for OGDC.
Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDC): 1HFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Mar 3 2025


Taurus Securities


  • OGDC is Pakistan’s largest exploration and production company. It is a market leader in terms of its exploration acreage (covering around 39%), oil and gas reserves, and production. OGDC holds 33% of Pakistan Minerals Private Limited (PMPL), 25% of Pakistan International Oil Limited (PIOL), and 20% of Mari Petroleum Company Limited (MARI). OGDC owns 112 Development & Production Leases, with 79 operated and 33 non-operated, respectively.
  • In 1HFY25, OGDC contributed 48%, 28% and 34% in total production of Oil, Natural Gas and LPG, respectively. Where, average daily saleable crude oil, gas and LPG production was 31.4K barrels, 672MMCF and 629 tons, respectively. In 1HFY25, remaining recoverable reserves (on net basis) were 491.41MMBOE on 1P basis and 710.74MMBOE on a 2P basis. Further, four wells were spud and three gas condensate discoveries were made during 1HFY25.
  • The management discussed operational highlights of the Company where they shared new developments i.e. acquisition of 174 line KM of 2D, 131 Sq.Km of 3D seismic survey. Four wells were spud (comprising of 3 exploratory wells and 1 development well. Exploratory efforts yielded three new gas condensate discoveries namely: i) Chak 202-1 (Sui Main Limestone), Mari East EL in district Rahim Yar Khan; ii) Baloch-2 (Sember), Baloch D & PL in district Sanghar; and iii) Bettani-2 (Samana Suk), Wali EL in district Laki Marwat in KPK, respectively.
Oil & Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): 2QFY25 EPS clocks in PKR 9.63, down by 44% YoY, DPS PKR 4.05 - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 28 2025


Alpha Capital


  • OGDC announced its 2QFY25 financial result today wherein the company reported an EPS of PKR 9.63, down by 44% YoY. Along with the result, the company announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 4.05/share.
  • Net sales for 2QFY25 clock in at PKR 100.4bn, compared to PKR 115.2bn in SPLY, down 13% YoY mainly on the back of a lower oil prices (-10.2% YoY), and an appreciating exchange rate (+5% YoY).
  • Exploration expenses climbed to PKR 4.0bn (+68% YoY) for 2QFY25 vs PKR 2.4bn in SPLY, due to a dry well encountered at Kandewaro-1.
Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDC): 2QFY25 EPS expected to clock in at PKR 9.03, down by 48% YoY, DPS PKR 3.00 - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 25 2025


Alpha Capital


  • OGDC is expected to announce its 2QFY25 results, wherein we expect the company to report an EPS of PKR 9.03, down by 48% YoY. Along with the result, the company is expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 3.00/share.
  • Net sales for 2QFY25 expected to clock in at PKR 102.1bn, compared to PKR 115.2bn in SPLY, down 11% YoY mainly on the back of lower oil prices (-11.5% YoY), and a PKR appreciation of 1.8% YoY against the greenback.
  • Exploration expenses are projected at PKR 6.1bn (2.6x YoY) for 2Q FY 25 compared to PKR 2.4bn in SPLY, due to a dry well encountered at Kandewaro-1.
Oil & Gas Exploration Companies: Reko Diq feasibility update: Long-term value emerges for OGDC & PPL - By AKD Research

Feb 19 2025


AKD Securities


  • Barrick Gold Corporation, the 50% operating partner in the Reko Diq Mining project, recently provided an update on the highly anticipated revised feasibility study in its latest press release for the project.
  • The updated feasibility study for Reko Diq estimates a 37-year mine life, with total capital investment estimated at US$8.83bn (Phase-1 requiring US$6.0bn).
  • Factoring in OGDC/PPL’s pre-divested 8.33% stakes, we estimate the mining project to contribute PkR51/81 per sh to respective valuations before adjusting for the minority stake discount.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): Discovery of Bettani-2 in Wali Block – By AKD Research

Dec 13 2024


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC), the operator of Wali Block, has discovered a second well i.e. Bettani-2, having a flow rate of 2.1mmcfd/74bpd of gas and oil, respectively. To note, Bettani-1 well is presently yielding 14.6mmcfd/978bpd of gas and oil as per Oct’24 data, and has been in production since Jun’23. Additionally, a third well Bettani Deep-1 is under drilling as well. In summary, the following discovery is expected to contribute an annualized EPS impact of PkR0.16/sh for OGDC.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL): 1QCY25 EPS arrive at PKR 1.19, up 1.5xQoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 1.19; DPS: PKR 7.5.
  • Revenue increased 9%QoQ to PKR 3.1Bn, attributed to improved dispatches amid seasonal demand recovery. However, YoY growth remained flat due to the impact of revised PPA terms, which converted the plant's structure to a 'take-and-pay' regime, limiting guaranteed capacity payments.
  • Finance income stood at PKR 26Mn versus PKR 238Mn in 1QCY24 (SPLY), reflecting the absence of late payment surcharge (LPS) which previously contributed significantly. The decline was anticipated after the company received PKR 8.04Bn in overdue receivables under the revised PPA settlements.
Commercial Banks: 1QCY25 Result Preview: Payouts to remain intact - By AKD Research

Apr 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in nonmarkup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
  • We anticipate our banking universe to maintain dividends in the first quarter, supported by resilient capitalization amid monetary easing, recovery in macro economic variables and removal of mandated ADR based taxation during the previous quarter.
  • Profitability to take a hit from declining yields: AKD Banking Universe is set to announce its 1QCY25E results, where we expect profitability to decline by 12%QoQ to PkR75.1bn, as contraction in NIMs and a drop in non-markup income are expected to outweigh the impact of lower operating expenses and reduced taxation.
United Bank Limited (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 18.4; PAT up 43%YoY/down 12%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 15 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Wednesday, April 16, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 18.4. 1QCY25 PAT up 43%YoY. UBL is also expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 12/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to go up 2xYoY/9%QoQ, driven by robust growth in current accounts and a lower cost of funds as changes to the MDR regime go into effect, along with a drop in leverage on a sequential basis – offsetting the pressure on yields, specially on the Bank’s investment portfolio.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Closed above 30-DMA - By JS Research

Apr 15 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index posted a gain of 1,537 points to close at 116,390. Volumes stood at 485mn shares compared to 459mn shares traded in the previous session. The index has closed above the 30-DMA which will now provide support at 115,535, followed by 114,357 (50-DMA). However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 116,500-117,300 where a break above targeting 118,718 level. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator have improved, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ‘Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below the 30-DMA. The support and resistance levels are at 115,593 and 116,840 levels, respectively.
Morning News: IMF concludes Pak visit, set to propose transparency reforms - By Vector Research

Apr 15 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified key shortcomings in Pakistan's governance, including the politicisation of the civil service, weak organisational accountability, and excessive focus on short-term goals. These issues, the IMF noted, contribute to broader governance weaknesses and increase vulnerability to corruption. The report which is expected to be made public by August this year will give recommendations for ensuring greater transparency and improving the public sector delivery by minimising the chances of corruption and through merit-based decisions.
  • With the halt of USAID operations by President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s total portfolio of $445 million has been affected over five years, surfacing a gap of $40 million for the current fiscal year for on-budget development projects. “However, in a positive development on the external front, Fitch Ratings might upgrade Pakistan’s rating within a few days”, top official sources confirmed while talking to The News on Monday. The Fitch might upgrade from a notch of CCC+ to BBB keeping in view the reduced risk of default.
  • Members of the delegation of US congressmen visiting Pakistan have described their trip to the South Asian country as "extremely productive" and “significant for the future", which is good news for the mineral-rich country. The delegation also attended the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) last week in Islamabad.
Morning News: Trade gap with ME widens - By WE Research

Apr 15 2025



  • Pakistan’s trade deficit with the Middle East widened by 9.75% to $9.35 billion in the first eight months of FY25, mainly due to a surge in petroleum imports, particularly a 20.29% increase in crude oil volumes. While exports to the region rose modestly—by 3.56% to $2.095 billion—imports jumped 8.56% to $11.44 billion during the same period. Despite a narrowing of the trade gap in FY24 due to lower petroleum consumption, the deficit has grown again, raising concerns. Pakistan recently signed a free trade agreement with GCC states to address the imbalance, with notable export growth to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Exports to Saudi Arabia rose 10.59% and to the UAE by 5.84% during July-February, while imports from both also fluctuated. However, exports to Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar declined significantly, while imports from these countries mostly increased, further contributing to the widening trade deficit.
  • In the upcoming 2025–26 federal budget, the Pakistani government is expected to raise taxes on a wide range of food and beverage items to increase tax revenue. Proposed measures include doubling the excise duty on soft drinks, sweetened beverages, and juices from 20% to 40%, while introducing a new 20% tax on industrial dairy products. Meat products, bakery goods, and confectionery items— such as chocolate, pastries, and cereals—are also likely to face a 50% tax increase, along with frozen desserts and products made from animal or vegetable fats. These tax hikes are planned to be implemented gradually over three years. Simultaneously, the defence budget is set to increase by Rs159 billion to Rs2,281 billion for FY26, marking a 7.49% rise from the previous year and a Rs263.2 billion increase since FY24, highlighting a continued focus on national security amid broader fiscal reforms.
  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, chaired a high-level meeting on priority sector lending aimed at aligning Pakistan’s financial sector with the government's export-led growth agenda. Attended by key officials from the State Bank, the Pakistan Banks Association, and leading banks, the session emphasized the banking sector's vital role in facilitating foreign direct investment and supporting export-oriented industries. The minister highlighted the successful Pakistan Minerals Summit and Maersk Line’s $2 billion investment in maritime infrastructure as indicators of investor confidence. He stressed the need for sustainable, investment-led economic growth, avoiding past boom-bust cycles. Notably, this year’s budget process was initiated early, incorporating stakeholder feedback from commerce chambers. Zafar Masud of the PBA presented updates on banking support for agriculture, SMEs, and digital sectors, including initiatives like electronic warehouse receipt finance and SME performance indices. The minister concluded with a call for coordinated efforts to develop fintech-driven credit solutions for smallholder farmers and to ensure long-term economic transformation rooted in stability, inclusivity, and resilience.
Engro Powergen Qadirpur Limited (EPQL):1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 0.04; PAT of ~PKR 13Mn - By Taurus Reseach

Apr 14 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QFY25 EPS: PKR 0.04; PAT: PKR 13Mn, down 98%YoY over the SPLY.
  • Revenue is expected to grow slightly on a sequential basis due to seasonal pickup in demand. However, YoY topline may decline by 5% owing to the revised PPA structure, wherein ROE component has been shifted to the 'take-and-pay' basis, reducing guaranteed capacity revenues.
  • Finance costs & income are expected to undergo a structural shift – EPQL previously recorded sizable finance income from late payment surcharge, which has ceased following the full settlement of PKR 8.4Bn receivables. As a result, net finance income is expected to convert into finance cost, although lower short-term borrowings should limit the overall impact.
Pakistan Cement: FCCL & KOHC: 3QFY25 result previews - By JS Research

Apr 14 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We present 3QFY25 earnings expectations for Fauji Cement Company Ltd (FCCL) and Kohat Cement Company Ltd (KOHC).
  • We expect FCCL and KOHC to post earnings of Rs1.02/share and Rs12.89/share, reflecting growth of 41% and 23% YoY, respectively. This improvement is primarily driven by higher gross margins — up 3.3ppt YoY for FCCL and 8.5ppts for KOHC — supported by higher retention prices and lower coal costs during 3QFY25 compared to 3QFY24.
  • The proposed increase in limestone royalty rates in KPK, aligning them with those in Punjab, is expected to weigh negatively on both companies. However, reduction in power tariffs may partially offset this impact, given both companies' significant reliance on the national grid.
Pakistan Economy: Tariffs put USD 115Trn world economy at risk - By Taurus Research

Apr 14 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Global equity markets plunged enormously in the aftermath of the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on about 90 countries by the US President Donald Trump, putting the USD 115Trn global economy at risk. Wherein, the new tariff rates seemed to have been somewhat ludicrously calculated; inflicting disparate punishment on several countries, as they scrambled to renegotiate.
  • The tariffs include a 10% base-line tariff on all imports into the US, with additional tariffs of up to 34% on China (now raised to 145%), 20% on the EU, 29% on Pakistan, 26% on India and so on.
  • Accordingly, the MSCI World & the MSCI Emerging Markets Indices, which cover 85% of the free-float adjusted large-cap and mid-cap stocks in 23 developed and 24 emerging markets, respectively, were down ~11% owing to the announcement of the tariffs, with trillions of dollars being wiped out from the financial markets globally—amidst heightened global macroeconomic uncertainty, putting the USD 115Trn global economy at risk.
Pakistan Cement: Cement profitability likely to increase by 40% YoY in 3QFY25 Led by lower finance costs and higher sales - By Topline Research

Apr 14 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Cement Universe is expected to post profitability of Rs16.0bn in 3QFY25 against profit of Rs11.4bn in 3QFY24, up by 40% YoY, mainly due to lower finance costs and higher sales.
  • Net sales are anticipated to increase by 10% YoY to Rs93.7bn in 3QFY25 mainly due to higher YoY domestic retention prices and higher YoY total dispatches.
  • Finance costs in 3QFY25 is likely to decrease by 44% YoY to Rs2.8bn due to lower interest rates
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): 2QFY25 EPS clocks in at PKR 10.02, down by 32% YoY, DPS PKR 2.00 - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 28 2025


Alpha Capital


  • PPL announced its 2QFY25 financial result today wherein, the company reported an EPS of PKR 10.02, down by 32% YoY. Along with the result, the company announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.00/share.
  • Net sales clocked in at PKR 61.3bn during 2QFY25, compared to PKR 73.0bn in SPLY, down 16% YoY, due to PKR appreciation against the greenback (5% YoY) and a decline in oil/gas production (-13%/-10% YoY).
  • The company posted exploration expenses of PKR 5.3bn (-20% YoY) for 2QFY25 vs PKR 6.7bn in SPLY, due to reduced exploration activity during the quarter.
Oil & Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): 2QFY25 EPS clocks in PKR 9.63, down by 44% YoY, DPS PKR 4.05 - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 28 2025


Alpha Capital


  • OGDC announced its 2QFY25 financial result today wherein the company reported an EPS of PKR 9.63, down by 44% YoY. Along with the result, the company announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 4.05/share.
  • Net sales for 2QFY25 clock in at PKR 100.4bn, compared to PKR 115.2bn in SPLY, down 13% YoY mainly on the back of a lower oil prices (-10.2% YoY), and an appreciating exchange rate (+5% YoY).
  • Exploration expenses climbed to PKR 4.0bn (+68% YoY) for 2QFY25 vs PKR 2.4bn in SPLY, due to a dry well encountered at Kandewaro-1.
Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDC): 2QFY25 EPS expected to clock in at PKR 9.03, down by 48% YoY, DPS PKR 3.00 - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 25 2025


Alpha Capital


  • OGDC is expected to announce its 2QFY25 results, wherein we expect the company to report an EPS of PKR 9.03, down by 48% YoY. Along with the result, the company is expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 3.00/share.
  • Net sales for 2QFY25 expected to clock in at PKR 102.1bn, compared to PKR 115.2bn in SPLY, down 11% YoY mainly on the back of lower oil prices (-11.5% YoY), and a PKR appreciation of 1.8% YoY against the greenback.
  • Exploration expenses are projected at PKR 6.1bn (2.6x YoY) for 2Q FY 25 compared to PKR 2.4bn in SPLY, due to a dry well encountered at Kandewaro-1.
Economy: Feb-25 NCPI expected at 1.8% YoY - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 20 2025


Alpha Capital


  • The headline CPI is expected to arrive at 1.8% YoY in Feb-24, continuing the declining inflation trend, following a reading of 2.4% YoY in Jan-24. We expect average inflation of 5.2% YoY for FY25 with a run rate of 0.6% MoM. The base effect continues to contribute to the declining inflation trend, bringing the print down to the lowest in two decades. MoM inflation is expected to decrease by 0.6% MoM for the first time since May-24, primarily due to the Food segment (down by 2.4% MoM) and a negative Fuel Charge Adjustment (FCA), reducing the average electricity tarrif. The Transport segment is expected to exhibit an increasing trend (up by 1.1% MoM) owing to the rising POL prices.
  • The Food segment is expected to decline by 2.4% MoM in Feb-25. Items driving the reduction in prices include: tomatoes (-54.6% MoM), onions (-27.4% MoM) and potatoes (- 20.8% MoM). Additionally, wheat prices are expected to reduce by 2.3% MoM due to abolishment of wheat support price, as per the agreement with the IMF.
  • The Utilities segment is expected to stay flattish (up by 0.1% MoM) on the back of a negative FCA of PKR 1.23/kwh for Dec-24, which is expected to reduce average electricity tariff for consumers in Feb-24.
Oil & Gas Marketing Companies: Higher growth ahead, Still a Buy - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 7 2025


Alpha Capital


  • FY24 was a tumultuous year for Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), characterized by demand destruction, elevated fuel prices, and a resurgence of smuggling activities from across the border, all of which hurt the OMC industry. However, the start of FY25 has been promising, and the outlook for the sector is positive as we witness a significant rebound in sales volumes. The past six months have been favorable for OMCs due to high volumetric sales, primarily driven by increased demand for Motor Spirit (MS) and High-Speed Diesel (HSD).
  • The growth in MS and HSD sales reflects a recovery in economic activity, particularly in the transportation and agricultural sectors, driven by falling commodity prices. We believe with the economic conditions stabilizing, further growth in MS and HSD sales volume is expected. Inflation has been steadily coming down, with the average inflation during CY24 recorded at 13.1%, compared to 30.9% last year. This is coupled with a projected GDP growth of 2.8% and a gradual recovery in large-scale manufacturing and service sectors, which will stimulate demand.
  • The government is expected to approve an increase in the OMC margins in Feb’25 following a recommendation by OGRA to increase margins from PKR 7.86/l to PKR 9.22/l. This is in line with the CPI-linked methodology of implementing margins and has been long overdue. An increase in margins will set the sector up for profitability.
Morning News: Don’t take GSP+ for granted, says EU envoy: - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Jan 31 2025


Alpha Capital


  • The European Union has warned Pakistan not to take its GSP+ status for granted.
  • Minister for Finance Muhammad Aurangzeb said the legislation concerning the Agriculture Income Tax had been approved by the two provincial assemblies and the IMF was fully cognisant that progress was underway in Sindh and Balochistan.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan Governor, Jamil Ahmed, has said that exporters are being provided with all possible facilities to increase the country’s exports.
Economy: Revenue surplus expected to drop to PKR 4bn - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Jan 27 2025


Alpha Capital


  • As part of the IMF's conditions for the release of the USD 7bn tranche, Pakistan was required to terminate gas supplies to captive power producers (CPPs) by January 2025. This measure was intended to encourage a shift towards increased reliance on gridbased electricity consumption. However, following sustained efforts, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) succeeded in negotiating more favourable terms for CPPs.
  • Under the initial proposition, gas supply to the specified plants was to be discontinued by January 31st, 2025. However, the Government of Pakistan (GoP), while maintaining the gas supply for CPPs, has approved an increase in tariffs for CPPs, revising the rate from PKR 3,000/MMBTU (effective July 2024) to PKR 3,500/MMBTU (effective February 2025). All other categories, including domestic consumers, will remain unaffected by this tariff adjustment.
  • A total of 480 CPPs operate on the SNGPL network (54 MMCFD) and 800 on the SSGC network (118 MMCFD). With limited availability of capital, we anticipate minimal decline in demand in the short run. Additionally, the ECC has approved the imposition of a grid transition levy which penalises captive power, forcing the shift to grid power, thereby releasing the downward pressure on grid power consumption amid falling LSM index (-1.25% YoY) and transitions to solar power.
Economy: Dec-24 NCPI expected at 4.3% YoY, lowest since Apr-18 – By Alpha - Akseer Research

Dec 27 2024


Alpha Capital


  • The headline CPI is expected to arrive at 4.3% YoY in Dec-24, continuing the declining inflation trend, following a reading of 4.9% YoY in Nov-24. This is expected to take 1HFY25 average inflation to 7.3% YoY. MoM inflation is expected to remain flattish, up by 0.3% MoM, primarily on the back of (i) a muted trend in the Food segment, (ii) a -1.1% MoM decrease in utilities segment due to a reduction in electricity charges, and (iii) a 0.7% MoM increase in Transport segment due to a rise in POL prices.
  • The Food segment is expected to stay flat with a slight increase of 0.2% MoM in Dec-24, indicating winter effect on perishable food items. Within this category, items driving the reduction in prices include: wheat flour (-2% MoM), chicken (-13% MoM), and tomatoes (-14% MoM).
  • Electricity tariff for Dec-24 depicts the continuation of a downward trend due to (i) a negative FCA of PKR 1.145/kwh, (ii) an updated QTA of PKR 0.196/kwh, and (iii) the introduction of Winter Demand Initiative (WDI) offering a discount on incremental consumption to domestic consumers (using above 200 units). Cumulatively, we expect these developments to reduce electricity charges by 5.9% MoM in Dec-24 and, consequently, a 1.1% MoM fall in the Utilities segment in the NCPI print.
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): Deriving value from improved cash positions –By Alpha - Akseer Research

Dec 19 2024


Alpha Capital


  • We revise our stance to “Buy” on Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) with our Dec-25 price target (PT) of PKR 278/sh, which projects a capital upside of 44% along with a dividend yield of 3.3%. The stock is currently trading at a discounted P/B of 0.7x along with a FY26 P/E of 5.6x against its historical 10-year average of 1.5x and 6.8x, respectively.
  • Improved cashflow amid structural reforms: Under the IMF agreement, the Government of Pakistan implemented multiple price hikes to eradicate the longstanding issue of circular debt. Consequently, the gas system went from an OGRA estimated shortfall of PKR 171.2bn in FY24 to a projected surplus of PKR 78.9bn in FY25.
  • Reko Diq – A tier-one asset ready to be realized: Reko Diq’s enormous copper and gold reserves yield a project NPV of USD 18.5bn, which may improve both PPL and Pakistan’s future prospects. Utilizing Barrick’s projections and timelines regarding the project, our base case for Reko Diq estimates a valuation impact around PKR 191bn (PKR71/sh) for PPL.
Pakistan Economy: SBP slashes policy rate by 200bps to 13% - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Dec 17 2024


Alpha Capital


  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced its monetary policy on 16th December (Monday), wherein the policy rate was cut by 200bps to 13.0%, bringing down the real interest rate to ~850bps. This latest move brings the cumulative rate cuts to 900bps since Jun-24.
  • Some key developments influencing the macroeconomic outlook include (i) the current account recording a surplus for the third consecutive month in October 2024 amidst weak financial inflows and substantial debt repayments, (ii) global commodity prices remaining favorable, with positive spillovers on domestic inflation and the import bill, (iii) credit to the private sector increasing, reflecting the efforts of banks in meeting the advances-to-deposit ratio (ADR), and (iv) widening of shortfall in tax revenues from the target.
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