Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC): Result Preview 2QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Feb 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • PIOC is anticipated to declare a profit after tax of PKR 1,487mn (EPS: PKR 6.55) in 2QFY25, reflecting a gain of 45% QoQ.
  • During the quarter, sales are expected to reach PKR 9,453mn, indicating an increase of 19.79% QoQ.
  • We estimate gross margins at 30.46%, representing a decrease of 4.07ppt YoY.
Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC): 3QFY25 EPS clocked-in at PKR 4.3, PAT down 44%QoQ - By Taurus Reseach

Apr 30 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 3QFY25 – EPS: PKR 4.3; PAT: ~PKR 974Mn, down ~44%QoQ – below expectations.
  • PIOC’s topline clocked-in at ~PKR 7.9Bn in 3QFY25, down 11%QoQ amid fall in domestic dispatches by 6%QoQ. Gross margin arrived at ~26%, down significantly by 16pptsQoQ on the back of drop in North region cement retail prices (lower demand during the quarter) and higher cost of production. 3QFY25 PAT arrived at PKR 974Mn, down 44%QoQ. Lastly, the Company did not announce a cash dividend for the quarter.
  • Outlook: We expect PIOC’s sales volume to remain subdued during 4QFY25 owing to lower demand from construction sector. Also, the Company has no contribution from exports and only engages in sales to the domestic market. Therefore, we anticipate PIOC’s earnings to remain under pressure during FY25.
Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC): Result Review: PIOC 3QFY25 EPS Rs4.3 - By Sherman Research

Apr 30 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC) announced 3QFY25 result today wherein company posted net earnings of Rs974mn (EPS Rs4.3) as compared to Rs1.2bn (EPS Rs5.3) during the same period last year, down by 19%YoY. The result came in-line with our estimate.
  • During 3QFY25, PIOC’s topline clocked in at Rs7.9bn (down 8%YoY) as cement dispatches fell by 7%YoY.
  • PIOC’s gross margin clocked in at 26% as compared to 32% during the same period last year. We believe that sharp decline is mainly attributed to lower capacity utilization and higher royalty expense during the quarter
Cement: LUCK, PIOC & ACPL: 3QFY25 result previews - By JS Research

Apr 24 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We present 3QFY25 earnings expectations for Lucky Cement Ltd (LUCK), Pioneer Cement Ltd (PIOC), and Attock Cement Pakistan Ltd (ACPL).
  • We expect LUCK (Standalone) and ACPL to post earnings of Rs22.4/share and Rs3.8/share, respectively in 3QFY25, up 33%/ and 2.9x YoY, mainly due to increased dispatches and improved margins. PIOC on the other hand is expected to post earnings of Rs4.95/share in 3QFY25, down 6% YoY.
  • Declining international coal prices (-17% CYTD) and stable cement MRP’s in the South are expected to bode well for LUCK and ACPL, while PIOC is expected to benefit from the recovery in cement prices in the North going forward.
Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC): Result Preview 2QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Feb 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • PIOC is anticipated to declare a profit after tax of PKR 1,487mn (EPS: PKR 6.55) in 2QFY25, reflecting a gain of 45% QoQ.
  • During the quarter, sales are expected to reach PKR 9,453mn, indicating an increase of 19.79% QoQ.
  • We estimate gross margins at 30.46%, representing a decrease of 4.07ppt YoY.
Pakistan Cement: PIOC, MLCF & FCCL: 2QFY25 result previews - By JS Research

Feb 18 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We present 2QFY25 earnings expectations for Pioneer Cement Ltd (PIOC), Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd (MLCF), and Fauji Cement Company Ltd (FCCL). PIOC and MLCF are expected to report a decline in earnings, with EPS likely to arrive at Rs6.2 and Rs1.47, reflecting a YoY decrease of 17% and 16%, respectively. This decline is primarily driven by lower local dispatches and higher royalty charge.
  • On the other hand, we expect FCCL to post an EPS of Rs1.45 during the quarter, up 34% YoY, largely attributed to a 19% rise in dispatches, following the company’s expansion, which has increased its capacity-based market share.
  • Punjab-based manufacturers continue to face pressure from the higher royalty charge, which adds Rs60-70/bag to manufacturing costs. However, cost efficiencies and declining Afghan and local coal prices are expected to partially offset this impact.
Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC): Analyst briefing takeaways – By Insight Research

Nov 26 2024


Insight Securities


  • Pioneer Cement Limited has conducted its analyst briefing to discuss financial results and future outlook of the company. We have highlighted key takeaways from the briefing:
  • PIOC has posted topline of PKR35.5bn in FY24 vs. PKR36.1bn SPLY. Whereas PAT stood at PKR5.1bn (EPS: PKR22.8) vs. PKR2.6bn (EPS: PKR11.5) in SPLY. The increase in profitably is attributable to increase in gross margins and declining in finance cost.
  • As per management, company’s current retention price stands at PKR16,800/ton.
Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC): FY24 & 1QFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Nov 26 2024


Taurus Securities


  • The management of PIOC discussed that the Company will change its business model by focusing on expansions regardless of the current overcapacity of the industry. They told that since the last couple of years, PIOC’s market share fell to 7% from 9.4% back in 2021. They highlighted the specific reasons i.e. plant expansions from other cement players along with improving cost efficiencies. The management shared the view to utilize excess cash flows to pay-off debt as the utmost stance for increasing shareholders wealth, then focus on plant expansion (adding 2.5Mn tons plant in Khushab whenever there is surge in demand in the construction sector).
  • As per the cost efficiency side, the management is optimistic to increase local coal consumption up to 90% in FY25 (10% from Afghan coal). They also shared that the cost of adding new plant will be around USD 175-200Mn for 2.5Mn tons per annum. They also highlighted that PIOC has one of the lowest cost of sales compared to the industry average. The current power mix comprises of 60% utilization from coal fire power plant (CFFP) – 20-24MW, 26% from WHR (9-10MW) and remaining from National grid. The management told that they do not intend to add solar plant as Coal fire power plant (CFFP) is generating efficient energy to meet the demand.
Textiles: Pause-period for US tariffs ending today - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The 90-day pause period for the implementation of reciprocal tariffs expires today. Meanwhile, US govt plans to issue letters to all countries which have not struck a deal yet and are likely to face higher than previously announced tariffs effective 1st August, 2025.
  • Countries having completed successful round of bilateral trade agreements including Pakistan, are expected to face a lower tariff, however, a minimum baseline tariff of 10% is likely to remain. A formal notification of the same is likely to be announced along with other trading partners with negotiated contracts.
  • With softening of US stance towards Pakistan since the cease-fire between India and Pakistan and a potential successful round of dialogues between the two, optimism towards Pak Textile sector has gained strength, with an upside of 38% from its low seen in May-2025 and 21% from the pre-tariff announcement levels.
Cement: Capacity Utilization at Record Low, Huge Growth Potential - By Sherman Research

Jul 8 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Currently, cement sector is running on historical low utilization level of 55% versus last 30-year average utilization of 76%. The main reason for this significant decline is that although capacity has increased sharply, demand has remained subdued over the past few years. To note, cement capacity in Pakistan has increased to 84.6mn tons as compared to 9mn tons in FY92, (up 9x) during the years.
  • Historically, we have observed that capacity expansions have only been undertaken when utilization surpasses 80%, therefore, we do not expect any capacity expansion in the near term. Furthermore, the pause in expansion is expected to enhance the liquidity of companies, which could enable them to increase their payout going forward.
  • During FY25, local dispatches arrived at 37mn tons compared to 38.2mn tons during FY24. Thus, during last 4 years, cement sales posted consistent decline on annualized basis reaching at 8 – year low level in FY25.
Morning News: Reserves up: SBP eyes global bond market - By Next Research

Jul 8 2025


Next Capital


  • According to the central bank, reserves reached $14.5 billion by the end of June, surpassing the IMF’s target of $13.9 billion and exceeding even the Governor’s own projections. The hard work is paying off. SBP has been persistent in buying dollars from the interbank market, and now, finally, the international commercial financing channel has reopened. The next move is to tap into the international bond market — starting with the Panda bond, followed by a Eurobond issuance.
  • In a significant economic achievement, the government of Pakistan has demonstrated its firm commitment to fiscal discipline and long-term stability by retiring Rs 1.5 trillion in public debt ahead of schedule in FY25. This substantial early repayment has contributed to a notable improvement in Pakistan’s fiscal indicators, bringing the debt-to-GDP ratio down from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said on Monday.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside likely - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a positive session to close at 133,370, up 1,421 points DoD. Volumes stood at 920mn shares compared to 733mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is likely to retest yesterday’s high of 133,862; a break above this level could target 135,232, with potential to rise further towards 137,549 level. Meanwhile, any downside will be tested between 132,460 and 132,610 levels, respectively. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. The support and resistance are placed at 132,604 and 133,999, respectively.
Morning News: SBP governor speaks of policy mix: - By HMFS Research

Jul 8 2025


HMFS Research


  • Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Jameel Ahmad has said that unlike in the previous episodes of boom-bust cycles, the current policy mix remains conducive to a lasting increase in economic activity rather than a short-sighted, fragile, and populist ‘sugar rush’. Governor SBP also assured that SBP is fully committed to undertake structural reforms and lay the foundation for sustainable and inclusive economic growth. Both SBP and the government remain steadfast in their approach to transitioning from recently hard-earned economic stability to a medium-term economic transformation. This resolve is reflected in our prudent and cautious monetary policy stance, and fundamentals aligned exchange rate, and ongoing fiscal consolidation and improving debt dynamics.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said. Pakistan’s debtto-GDP ratio decreased from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25 due to early debt repayments. The successful buyback of Rs1 trillion in market debt, completed by December 2024, marked the first such operation in Pakistan’s history. Alongside this, the early repayment of the SBP Rs500 billion debt has collectively led to the early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt during FY25, said Khurram Schehzad, an advisor to the finance minister. The early retirement of central bank debt, executed by the Debt Management Office (DMO), marks a breakthrough in Pakistan’s debt management strategy. Early debt retirement while converting shorter tenure with longer-tenure debt significantly reduces concentration risk, lowers future liabilities, and strengthens the country’s macroeconomic foundations by curbing reliance on borrowings.
  • The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has notified businesses, including importers, suppliers, and manufacturers, of tightened restrictions under Section 21 of the Income Tax Ordinance for FY26, aimed at discouraging excessive cash dealings and broadening the tax net. Under the directive, any cash transaction exceeding PKR 200,000 will not be treated as an allowable business expense. Consequently: 50% of such expenditure will be recognized for tax purposes. The disallowed portion will attract an additional tax burden, effectively raising the cost by 20.5%.For completely disallowed transactions, the effective impact could surge to 79.5%. Businesses are urged to ensure all supplier and client payments are processed through proper banking channels to avoid heavy penalties and additional scrutiny by FBR
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day July 7, 2025 - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1.4% to an all-time intraday high of 133,862.01, driven by optimism over trade negotiations, macroeconomic stability, and a strong corporate earnings outlook. Falling inflation, strengthening FX reserves, and capital inflows are enhancing investor confidence, while higher taxes on alternative assets are redirecting capital into equities. With earnings season ahead and technical indicators breaking new ground, we expect the bullish momentum to persist in the near term, supported by favorable macro trends and reallocation from fixed-income instruments.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Carries KSE-100 Beyond 133,000 - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market continued its unrelenting bullish streak, surging past the 133,862 mark for the first time in history. This milestone rally was fueled by renewed investor confidence, driven by key trade developments and sector-specific momentum. Investor sentiment received a notable boost as Pakistan and the U.S. concluded a critical round of trade talks ahead of the July 9 deadline. While an official announcement is still awaited, early signs point to a favorable deal for Pakistan’s export sectors. Adding to the positive momentum, OGDC reported a production uplift following the successful installation of an ESP at Rajian-05, where it holds full ownership—further reinforcing its operational strength. The rally was led by the banking and fertilizer sectors, supported by expectations of strong upcoming results and favorable sectoral tailwinds. The KSE-100 index closed at 133,370 level, up 1,421 points in a robust session. Market activity remained upbeat, with 344 million shares traded on the KSE100 and total market volume reaching 915 million shares. Volume leaders included IMAGE (48mn), BOP (43mn), and WTL (37mn). While a short-term breather cannot be ruled out given the sharp upward trajectory, overall sentiment is expected to remain strong amid continued macroeconomic improvement. Investors are advised to stay focused on fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC enhances production at Rajian-05 well - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has enhanced production in Rajian-05 through installation of electrical submersible pumps (ESP). Following the workover, production has increased to 3.1kbpd of oil and 1.0mmcfd of gas, compared to 1.1k bpd/0.5mmcfd of oil/gas during 3QFY25. Notably, OGDC is the wholly-owned operator of the Rajian heavy oil field, where several workovers and artificial lift systems have been implemented at previous wells to expedite revival. We anticipate the aforementioned development to have an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR1.3 per sh for OGDC, respectively.
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
  • All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
  • For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Economy: Pakistan Investment Strategy 2HCY25 - By AHCML Research

Jul 1 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Pakistan's economy is on track for sustained recovery, with GDP growth projected at 2.68% in FY25 and 4.2% in FY26. Pakistan’s economy is expected to recover modestly in FY25, with services growing 2.9% YoY, supported by commodity sectors. Industrial growth is forecasted at 3.2% YoY, driven by LSM recovery, though energy-related challenges pose risks. Agriculture is set to grow 1.8% YoY, led by livestock and forestry despite a decline in major crops. A shift to renewable energy is expected to cut costs and ensure stable power supply, boosting efficiency.
  • This growth is supported by lower interest rates backed by lower inflation and a stable PKR. Inflation is expected to moderate to 6% YoY in FY26, aided by improving supply of food related commodities, stability in PKR and completion of major energy tariff adjustments.
  • The IMF agreement has boosted investor confidence, while a clear roadmap for debt management, FDI commitments from friendly countries, and ambitious privatization efforts signal an economic turnaround. High-impact projects like Reko Diq and energy sector reforms under the SIFC enhance Pakistan's appeal as an investment destination, creating opportunities for investors to leverage these developments at the PSX.
Pakistan Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Inflation Preview - By AHCML Research

Jun 30 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation for Jun’25 is likely to come in at 3.47% YoY, compared to same 3.46% YoY in May’25 and 12.6% YoY in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to clock in at 0.46% MoM, Headline inflation for Jun’25 is expected to increase, primarily driven by a sharp increase in food prices, which make up 35% of the CPI basket. Food inflation is projected at 3.6%YoY due to significant increase in key items: Spices (88% YoY), Milk (36%), rice 37%), meat (20%), and cooking oil (16%). On a MoM basis, the food index is expected to increase by 0.6%, led by higher prices for tomatoes, eggs, and chicken.
  • The ongoing reforms in the energy sector as increase in the gas and power tariff expected to increase inflation going forward.
  • For the FY25, average inflation is forecasted to range between 4.5% YoY, compared to 23.4% YoY in FY24.
Oil & Gas Marketing Companies: Gas Tariff Hike: Positive for Gas Utilities, Negative for Industry - By AHCML Research

Jun 30 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) has approved a significant gas tariff hike across all consumer categories effective July 1, 2025. The revised structure includes increase in fixed monthly charges, PKR600 for protected households, PKR1,500 for non-protected users, and PKR3,000 for high-usage domestic consumers. The adjustment is part of broader IMF-led reforms to improve cost recovery, reduce subsidies, and contain circular debt in the energy sector.
  • The gas tariff hike is a structurally positive development for SSGC, SNGP, PPL, PSO, and OGDC, it poses near-term risks for industrial players. The policy supports energy sector sustainability and aligns with macroeconomic reform goals but warrants caution in sectors exposed to high gas input costs. Investors may consider overweighting gas utilities and upstream names while remaining selective in industrial exposure.
Economy: Pakistan-US Trade Talks Near Conclusion: Major Breakthrough on Tariffs Expected Next Week - By AHCML Research

Jun 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Pakistan and the United States are set to conclude trade negotiations next week, aiming to address reciprocal tariffs and strengthen bilateral economic ties. The talks, led by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, reflect a strategic push to reset relations amid evolving global alignments. A key focus is easing the 29% US tariff on Pakistani exports, imposed under former President Trump, as Pakistan posted a USD3 billion trade surplus with the US in 2024.To rebalance trade and attract US goodwill, Pakistan has offered to increase imports of American goods, including crude oil, and provide investment incentives, particularly in the mining sector.
  • A joint webinar this week showcased Pakistan’s USD7 billion Reko Diq copper-gold project, drawing interest from US investors and officials. The US Export-Import Bank is currently evaluating financing proposals worth USD500mn to USD1 billion for the project.
  • As the U.S. maintains high tariffs on key textile-exporting countries like China, Vietnam, and Cambodia, Pakistan faces relatively moderate tariffs, higher than Egypt and Turkey, but far more favorable than many others. This creates a strategic opening for Pakistan to increase its market share in the U.S., particularly in high-demand categories where it already has a foothold. These include cotton trousers, knit shirts, denim, towels, bed linen, and curtains.
Morning News: PM, Chinese envoy discuss CPEC projects - By AHCML Research

Jun 25 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Tuesday reiterated Pakistan’s commitment to China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), describing it as a flagship project of the longstanding strategic partnership between Islamabad and Beijing.
  • Farmers across Punjab have increasingly transitioned their agricultural tube-wells to solar energy in response to rising input costs driven by expensive electricity and diesel.
  • Banks and Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) have surrendered their unclaimed deposits up to December 31, 2023 to the State Bank of Pakistan. Claimants can apply for refund of their claims.
Morning News: Trump announces Israel-Iran ceasefire - By AHCML Research

Jun 24 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that a “complete and total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran will go into force with a view to ending the conflict between the two nations.
  • ST, duty exemptions on imported cotton, yarn being withdrawn, Aurangzeb tells NA: Govt taking steps to support cotton farmers, industry.
  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb informed the National Assembly on Monday that the government has decided to withdraw sales tax and duty exemptions on imported cotton and yarn to support local cotton farmers and revive the domestic textile industry.
Oil Marketing Companies: Rising Oil Price impacts Import Bill Impact of Oil prices on Import Bill - By AHCML Research

Jun 13 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • With Israel’s military strike on Iran pushing Arab Light crude above USD 69/bbl as of June 13, 2025, Pakistan’s vulnerability to oil price shocks has intensified. In 10MFY25, the country imported USD 12.8 billion worth of petroleum products, up 3% YoY from the same period last year. Historically, for every USD 5 increase in oil prices, Pakistan’s import bill rises by approximately USD800mn- 1,000mn per year. If the conflict prolongs, the elevated oil prices could significantly strain the country’s trade balance and fiscal outlook.
  • Pakistan’s external sector may soon face renewed pressure, as higher global oil and LNG prices directly impact the current account (CA). While the CA posted a USD 1.9 billion surplus in 10MFY25, this buffer could erode quickly if oil costs remain elevated. A deterioration into deficit territory could require additional financing from multilateral institutions, Saudi oil credit facilities, or bilateral loans. This may also complicate ongoing negotiations with the IMF, potentially diverting crucial funds away from development projects toward essential commodity imports.
Pakistan Economy: Pakistan Economic Survey FY25 Highlights - By AHCML Research

Jun 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • GDP Growth: 2.68% in FY25 (FY24: 2.51%), driven by industrial (4.77%) and services (2.91%) sectors.
  • Inflation: Sharply fell to 0.3% in Apr’25 due to monetary tightening, stable food supplies, and lower global commodity prices.
  • Fiscal Discipline: Primary surplus of 3.0% of GDP (FY24: 1.5%) and first fiscal surplus in 24 years (Q1 FY25: PKR 1.896 tn).
Pakistan Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) - By AHCML Research

May 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation in May’25 is expected to clock in at 3.0% YoY, up from 0.3% in Apr’25 and down from 11.8% in May’24, as base effects continue to fade. On a monthly basis, CPI is likely to decline by 0.6% MoM, posting the second consecutive drop, mainly due to a 2.3% fall in food prices amid improved supply of perishables. However, poultry shortages are expected to push egg and chicken prices up by 32.8% and 20.7% MoM, respectively.
  • The transport index is expected to decline by 0.7% MoM due to lower fuel prices, while the clothing and footwear index is projected to rise by 1.2% MoM.
  • On a YoY basis, food inflation is anticipated to ease to 0.9%, but non-food inflation is likely to remain elevated, led by healthcare (+12.5%), education (+10.4%), clothing (+9.9%), and restaurants (+8.4%).
Economy: IMF Backs Pakistan’s Reforms With USD2.4bn Funding Package - By AHCML Research

May 19 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The IMF report on Pakistan highlights the country's economic performance under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, noting improvements in fiscal discipline, external stability, and structural reforms. However, challenges persist, including subdued growth, elevated core inflation, and risks from external shocks such as recent US tariff hikes. Key achievements include meeting quantitative performance criteria (QPCs), rebuilding foreign reserves, and advancing tax reforms. The report emphasizes the need for sustained policy tightening, fiscal consolidation, and energy sector reforms to ensure long-term stability. Additionally, the proposed Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) aims to address climate vulnerabilities and promote green growth.
  • Pakistan's economy has shown signs of stabilization but continues to face significant challenges. After recording GDP growth of 2.5% in FY24, economic activity softened in the first half of FY25, with growth slowing to 1.3% in Q1 and 1.7% in Q2. This deceleration primarily reflects lower yields from major Kharif crops and persistently subdued industrial activity.
  • On the inflation front, headline inflation declined sharply to just 0.7% year-on-year in March 2025, driven by tight macroeconomic policies and declining global food and energy prices. However, core inflation remains stubbornly high at around 9%, indicating persistent underlying price pressures.
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