Hub Power Company Ltd (HUBC): 2QFY25 Result Review — Resumes cash-payout post base-plant termination - By AKD Research

Feb 26 2025


AKD Securities


  • Hub Power Company Ltd (HUBC) announced its 2QFY25 results earlier today, where-in the company reported consolidated NPAT of PkR4.2bn (EPS: PkR3.25), down by 72%YoY and significantly lower than expectations due to sharp-increase in other expenses and elevated effective tax rates. Alongside the result, the company announced a half-yearly cash dividend of PkR5.0/sh.
  • Consolidated revenue for the quarter clocked in at PkR15.5bn, down by 48% YoY vs. PkR29.9bn in SPLY. The contraction was primarily driven by the termination of the base plant’s PPA, effective Oct 1st, 2024, leading to a significant compression in the consolidated topline. Resultantly, company’s gross profitability amounted to 41%, compared to 56%/56% in 2QFY24/1QFY25, respectively.
  • Finance cost amounted to PkR4.1bn, down by 41%YoY. The decline was led due to falling interest rates and lower debt level
Hub Power Company Ltd (HUBC):3QFY25 Preview: Earnings dip amid PPA setbacks - By AKD Research

Apr 28 2025


AKD Securities


  • We expect Hub Power Company Ltd (HUBC) to post NPAT of PkR10.7bn (EPS: PkR8.25) for 3QFY25, down 38%YoY.
  • HUBC is anticipated to record its lowest consolidated topline in four years, expected to clock in at PkR14.3bn (down 55%YoY/8%QoQ).
  • Mar’25 marked the first month of BYD’s official entry into the domestic auto market, with the commencement of sales for the Atto-3 and Seal models.
Hub Power Company (HUBC): 2QFY25 EPS at Rs3.25, down 72% YoY and 78% QoQ – lower than expectations - By Topline Research

Feb 26 2025


Topline Securities


  • Hub Power Company (HUBC) announced its 2QFY25 result wherein company reported earnings of Rs4.2bn (EPS of Rs3.25), down 72% YoY and 78% QoQ —falling short of expectations due to lower gross profits and higher other expenses.
  • This brings 1HFY25 profits to Rs 23.3bn (EPS 17.99) a 28% decline from 1HFY24 where a Rs32.4bn (EPS 24.95) earning was recorded.
  • HUBC declared a Rs5/share dividend for 2QFY25, above industry expectations.
Hub Power Company (HUBC): 2QFY25 EPS at Rs3.25, down 72% YoY and 78% QoQ – lower than expectations - By Topline Research

Feb 26 2025


Topline Securities


  • Hub Power Company (HUBC) announced its 2QFY25 result wherein company reported earnings of Rs4.2bn (EPS of Rs3.25), down 72% YoY and 78% QoQ —falling short of expectations due to lower gross profits and higher other expenses.
  • This brings 1HFY25 profits to Rs 23.3bn (EPS 17.99) a 28% decline from 1HFY24 where a Rs32.4bn (EPS 24.95) earning was recorded.
  • HUBC declared a Rs5/share dividend for 2QFY25, above industry expectations.
Hub Power Company Ltd (HUBC): 2QFY25 Result Review — Resumes cash-payout post base-plant termination - By AKD Research

Feb 26 2025


AKD Securities


  • Hub Power Company Ltd (HUBC) announced its 2QFY25 results earlier today, where-in the company reported consolidated NPAT of PkR4.2bn (EPS: PkR3.25), down by 72%YoY and significantly lower than expectations due to sharp-increase in other expenses and elevated effective tax rates. Alongside the result, the company announced a half-yearly cash dividend of PkR5.0/sh.
  • Consolidated revenue for the quarter clocked in at PkR15.5bn, down by 48% YoY vs. PkR29.9bn in SPLY. The contraction was primarily driven by the termination of the base plant’s PPA, effective Oct 1st, 2024, leading to a significant compression in the consolidated topline. Resultantly, company’s gross profitability amounted to 41%, compared to 56%/56% in 2QFY24/1QFY25, respectively.
  • Finance cost amounted to PkR4.1bn, down by 41%YoY. The decline was led due to falling interest rates and lower debt level
The Hub Power Company Limited (HUBC): 2QFY25 Consolidated EPS arrived-in at PKR 3.2 ; PAT down 68%YoY - By Taurus Research

Feb 26 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 2QFY25 EPS: PKR 3.2; DPS: PKR 5; 1HFY25 EPS: PKR 18.0; DPS: PKR 5.0. PAT: Down 27%.
  • 2QFY25 consolidated revenue declined by 52%QoQ, settling at PKR 15.5Bn, likely due to the termination of the Base Plant PPA and lower power generation demand during winter. Consequently, HUBC's other expenses surged by PKR 3.6Bn, a 5x increase. We await further clarity on this matter from the company.
  • The share of profit from associates stood at PKR 9.8Bn, down 7%QoQ, which can be attributed to lower load factors for CPHGC and Thal Nova during the quarter.
Pakistan Power: HUBC & NPL — 2QFY25E Result Previews - By AKD Research

Feb 25 2025


AKD Securities


  • HUBC – 2QFY25E earnings to clock in at PkR9.0/sh: We expect Hub Power Company Ltd (HUBC) to post NPAT of PkR11.8bn (EPS: 9.07/sh) for 2QFY25, down 23%YoY/39%QoQ. The decline is primarily attributed to the termination of PPA for the base plant, effective October 1, 2024, leading to a lower topline of PkR17.2bn (down 43%YoY/46%QoQ). Notably, power offtakes from the company’s RFO and imported coal-based generators remain subdued during the quarter, while indigenous coal IPPs remained active throughout, benefiting from a higher ranking in NTDC’s merit order. On the non-operating front, share of profit from associates is expected to clock in at PkR10.7bn for the period (up 1%YoY). We do not anticipate the company to announce a cash dividend during the period (vs. PkR4.0/sh in SPLY), however, any payout would be a positive development. We reiterate our ‘BUY’ stance on HUBC with a Dec’25 TP of PkR151/sh, alongside a DY of 4% during the same period.
  • NPL expected to announce PkR2.0/sh payout in 2QFY25E: We anticipate Nishat Power Limited (NPL) to report NPAT of PkR982mn (EPS: PkR2.77) for 2QFY25E, up 14%YoY. The increase in earnings is due to higher finance income, supported by elevated cash and short-term investment balances of PkR11bn during the quarter (up 31%YoY). Additionally, the receipt of any outstanding dues from CPPA-G is expected to further strengthen the liquid position, partially offsetting the impact of declining fixed-income yields during the period. Regarding operations, plant utilization remained near 0% during the quarter (vs. 6%/7% in SPLY/1QFY25), primarily due to lower generation from RFO-based sources amid subdued power demand during the winter season. Alongside the results, we expect NPL to announce a half-year cash dividend of PkR2.0/sh, taking cumulative payout to PkR4.0 during the first half (vs. PkR2.50/sh in 1HFY24). Overall, we reiterate our ‘BUY’ stance on NPL with a Dec’25 TP of PkR46/sh, alongside a DY of 20% during the same period.
The Hub Power Company Limited (HUBC): 2QFY25 Consolidated EPS to arrive at PKR 7.7; PAT down 34%YoY - By Taurus Research

Feb 25 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: February 26, 2024. 2QFY25 EPS: PKR 7.7; DPS: PKR 3; 1HFY25 EPS: PKR 22.5; DPS: PKR 3. PAT: Down 10%.
  • Revenue: Net sales are expected to decline by 39%YoY and 43%QoQ to PKR 18.3Bn, driven by the early termination of the Base Plant PPA and lower utilization owing to lower power demand during winter. Gross profit is projected to fall 61%YoY, while PAT is expected to drop 34%YoY to PKR 10Bn.
  • Share of profit from associates: Earnings from associates are anticipated to decline 9%YoY, primarily due to lower contributions from CPHGC
Hub Power Company Ltd. (HUBCO): From heights to hurdles – By Insight Research

Dec 19 2024


Insight Securities


  • HUBC recently witnessed a rally, rising by 41% from its 52- week low of PKR93/sh. The rally began following a notice regarding a shareholder agreement with Mega Conglomerate Pvt. Ltd. to acquire a 50% stake in Mega Motor Company. This move will reduce HUBC's exposure to BYD, potentially increasing its dividend payout capacity, and secure a stake in a long-term value-generating business. The company’s focus on electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries is well-aligned with the government’s target to convert 30% of new vehicles to EVs, which will be supported by the upcoming New Energy Vehicle (NEV) policy.
  • While this development offer growth prospects, significant risk remains for HUBC. As per newsflows, the government has reached settlements with 17 IPPs established under the 1994 and 2002 policies, transitioning them to a hybrid take-and-pay framework. We believe that HUBC’s Narowal (RFO) and Laraib Energy (Hydel) plants are also part of these discussions, with settlements expected to align with the terms agreed upon with other IPPs.
  • Following these developments and recent run in stock price, we have a ‘HOLD’ stance on HUBC, with a SOTP based target price of PKR138/sh. However, risks persist for HUBC’s CPECrelated plants as well, as the government task force may also consider revising their PPAs, which could pose further challenges.
Textiles: Pause-period for US tariffs ending today - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The 90-day pause period for the implementation of reciprocal tariffs expires today. Meanwhile, US govt plans to issue letters to all countries which have not struck a deal yet and are likely to face higher than previously announced tariffs effective 1st August, 2025.
  • Countries having completed successful round of bilateral trade agreements including Pakistan, are expected to face a lower tariff, however, a minimum baseline tariff of 10% is likely to remain. A formal notification of the same is likely to be announced along with other trading partners with negotiated contracts.
  • With softening of US stance towards Pakistan since the cease-fire between India and Pakistan and a potential successful round of dialogues between the two, optimism towards Pak Textile sector has gained strength, with an upside of 38% from its low seen in May-2025 and 21% from the pre-tariff announcement levels.
Cement: Capacity Utilization at Record Low, Huge Growth Potential - By Sherman Research

Jul 8 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Currently, cement sector is running on historical low utilization level of 55% versus last 30-year average utilization of 76%. The main reason for this significant decline is that although capacity has increased sharply, demand has remained subdued over the past few years. To note, cement capacity in Pakistan has increased to 84.6mn tons as compared to 9mn tons in FY92, (up 9x) during the years.
  • Historically, we have observed that capacity expansions have only been undertaken when utilization surpasses 80%, therefore, we do not expect any capacity expansion in the near term. Furthermore, the pause in expansion is expected to enhance the liquidity of companies, which could enable them to increase their payout going forward.
  • During FY25, local dispatches arrived at 37mn tons compared to 38.2mn tons during FY24. Thus, during last 4 years, cement sales posted consistent decline on annualized basis reaching at 8 – year low level in FY25.
Morning News: Reserves up: SBP eyes global bond market - By Next Research

Jul 8 2025


Next Capital


  • According to the central bank, reserves reached $14.5 billion by the end of June, surpassing the IMF’s target of $13.9 billion and exceeding even the Governor’s own projections. The hard work is paying off. SBP has been persistent in buying dollars from the interbank market, and now, finally, the international commercial financing channel has reopened. The next move is to tap into the international bond market — starting with the Panda bond, followed by a Eurobond issuance.
  • In a significant economic achievement, the government of Pakistan has demonstrated its firm commitment to fiscal discipline and long-term stability by retiring Rs 1.5 trillion in public debt ahead of schedule in FY25. This substantial early repayment has contributed to a notable improvement in Pakistan’s fiscal indicators, bringing the debt-to-GDP ratio down from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said on Monday.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside likely - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a positive session to close at 133,370, up 1,421 points DoD. Volumes stood at 920mn shares compared to 733mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is likely to retest yesterday’s high of 133,862; a break above this level could target 135,232, with potential to rise further towards 137,549 level. Meanwhile, any downside will be tested between 132,460 and 132,610 levels, respectively. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. The support and resistance are placed at 132,604 and 133,999, respectively.
Morning News: SBP governor speaks of policy mix: - By HMFS Research

Jul 8 2025


HMFS Research


  • Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Jameel Ahmad has said that unlike in the previous episodes of boom-bust cycles, the current policy mix remains conducive to a lasting increase in economic activity rather than a short-sighted, fragile, and populist ‘sugar rush’. Governor SBP also assured that SBP is fully committed to undertake structural reforms and lay the foundation for sustainable and inclusive economic growth. Both SBP and the government remain steadfast in their approach to transitioning from recently hard-earned economic stability to a medium-term economic transformation. This resolve is reflected in our prudent and cautious monetary policy stance, and fundamentals aligned exchange rate, and ongoing fiscal consolidation and improving debt dynamics.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said. Pakistan’s debtto-GDP ratio decreased from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25 due to early debt repayments. The successful buyback of Rs1 trillion in market debt, completed by December 2024, marked the first such operation in Pakistan’s history. Alongside this, the early repayment of the SBP Rs500 billion debt has collectively led to the early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt during FY25, said Khurram Schehzad, an advisor to the finance minister. The early retirement of central bank debt, executed by the Debt Management Office (DMO), marks a breakthrough in Pakistan’s debt management strategy. Early debt retirement while converting shorter tenure with longer-tenure debt significantly reduces concentration risk, lowers future liabilities, and strengthens the country’s macroeconomic foundations by curbing reliance on borrowings.
  • The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has notified businesses, including importers, suppliers, and manufacturers, of tightened restrictions under Section 21 of the Income Tax Ordinance for FY26, aimed at discouraging excessive cash dealings and broadening the tax net. Under the directive, any cash transaction exceeding PKR 200,000 will not be treated as an allowable business expense. Consequently: 50% of such expenditure will be recognized for tax purposes. The disallowed portion will attract an additional tax burden, effectively raising the cost by 20.5%.For completely disallowed transactions, the effective impact could surge to 79.5%. Businesses are urged to ensure all supplier and client payments are processed through proper banking channels to avoid heavy penalties and additional scrutiny by FBR
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day July 7, 2025 - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1.4% to an all-time intraday high of 133,862.01, driven by optimism over trade negotiations, macroeconomic stability, and a strong corporate earnings outlook. Falling inflation, strengthening FX reserves, and capital inflows are enhancing investor confidence, while higher taxes on alternative assets are redirecting capital into equities. With earnings season ahead and technical indicators breaking new ground, we expect the bullish momentum to persist in the near term, supported by favorable macro trends and reallocation from fixed-income instruments.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Carries KSE-100 Beyond 133,000 - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market continued its unrelenting bullish streak, surging past the 133,862 mark for the first time in history. This milestone rally was fueled by renewed investor confidence, driven by key trade developments and sector-specific momentum. Investor sentiment received a notable boost as Pakistan and the U.S. concluded a critical round of trade talks ahead of the July 9 deadline. While an official announcement is still awaited, early signs point to a favorable deal for Pakistan’s export sectors. Adding to the positive momentum, OGDC reported a production uplift following the successful installation of an ESP at Rajian-05, where it holds full ownership—further reinforcing its operational strength. The rally was led by the banking and fertilizer sectors, supported by expectations of strong upcoming results and favorable sectoral tailwinds. The KSE-100 index closed at 133,370 level, up 1,421 points in a robust session. Market activity remained upbeat, with 344 million shares traded on the KSE100 and total market volume reaching 915 million shares. Volume leaders included IMAGE (48mn), BOP (43mn), and WTL (37mn). While a short-term breather cannot be ruled out given the sharp upward trajectory, overall sentiment is expected to remain strong amid continued macroeconomic improvement. Investors are advised to stay focused on fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC enhances production at Rajian-05 well - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has enhanced production in Rajian-05 through installation of electrical submersible pumps (ESP). Following the workover, production has increased to 3.1kbpd of oil and 1.0mmcfd of gas, compared to 1.1k bpd/0.5mmcfd of oil/gas during 3QFY25. Notably, OGDC is the wholly-owned operator of the Rajian heavy oil field, where several workovers and artificial lift systems have been implemented at previous wells to expedite revival. We anticipate the aforementioned development to have an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR1.3 per sh for OGDC, respectively.
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
  • All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
  • For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Hub Power Company Ltd (HUBC): 2QFY25 Result Review — Resumes cash-payout post base-plant termination - By AKD Research

Feb 26 2025


AKD Securities


  • Hub Power Company Ltd (HUBC) announced its 2QFY25 results earlier today, where-in the company reported consolidated NPAT of PkR4.2bn (EPS: PkR3.25), down by 72%YoY and significantly lower than expectations due to sharp-increase in other expenses and elevated effective tax rates. Alongside the result, the company announced a half-yearly cash dividend of PkR5.0/sh.
  • Consolidated revenue for the quarter clocked in at PkR15.5bn, down by 48% YoY vs. PkR29.9bn in SPLY. The contraction was primarily driven by the termination of the base plant’s PPA, effective Oct 1st, 2024, leading to a significant compression in the consolidated topline. Resultantly, company’s gross profitability amounted to 41%, compared to 56%/56% in 2QFY24/1QFY25, respectively.
  • Finance cost amounted to PkR4.1bn, down by 41%YoY. The decline was led due to falling interest rates and lower debt level
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