Morning News: Quarterly GDP growth figures to be released next week - By Vector Research

Mar 19 2025


Vector Securities


  • In a bid to meet an IMF condition, the government is all set to release quarterly GDP growth rate figures for the second quarter (Oct-Dec) of the current fiscal year next week amid declining trends in industrial sector. The real GDP growth will now mainly rely on the services sector and to some extent on the neglected agriculture sector.
  • Pakistan exported a record 933,000 tonnes of furnace oil in the first eight months of the current financial year, as the country’s power sector continues to phase out its use due to high costs and environmental concerns. According to oil sector data, fuel oil exports, however, plummeted to 39,000 tonnes in February, compared to 190,000 tonnes in January.Industry sources attributed the lower exports to an accumulation of furnace oil in local refineries, as buyers prefer to purchase in bulk.

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Textiles: Pause-period for US tariffs ending today - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The 90-day pause period for the implementation of reciprocal tariffs expires today. Meanwhile, US govt plans to issue letters to all countries which have not struck a deal yet and are likely to face higher than previously announced tariffs effective 1st August, 2025.
  • Countries having completed successful round of bilateral trade agreements including Pakistan, are expected to face a lower tariff, however, a minimum baseline tariff of 10% is likely to remain. A formal notification of the same is likely to be announced along with other trading partners with negotiated contracts.
  • With softening of US stance towards Pakistan since the cease-fire between India and Pakistan and a potential successful round of dialogues between the two, optimism towards Pak Textile sector has gained strength, with an upside of 38% from its low seen in May-2025 and 21% from the pre-tariff announcement levels.
Cement: Capacity Utilization at Record Low, Huge Growth Potential - By Sherman Research

Jul 8 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Currently, cement sector is running on historical low utilization level of 55% versus last 30-year average utilization of 76%. The main reason for this significant decline is that although capacity has increased sharply, demand has remained subdued over the past few years. To note, cement capacity in Pakistan has increased to 84.6mn tons as compared to 9mn tons in FY92, (up 9x) during the years.
  • Historically, we have observed that capacity expansions have only been undertaken when utilization surpasses 80%, therefore, we do not expect any capacity expansion in the near term. Furthermore, the pause in expansion is expected to enhance the liquidity of companies, which could enable them to increase their payout going forward.
  • During FY25, local dispatches arrived at 37mn tons compared to 38.2mn tons during FY24. Thus, during last 4 years, cement sales posted consistent decline on annualized basis reaching at 8 – year low level in FY25.
Morning News: Reserves up: SBP eyes global bond market - By Next Research

Jul 8 2025


Next Capital


  • According to the central bank, reserves reached $14.5 billion by the end of June, surpassing the IMF’s target of $13.9 billion and exceeding even the Governor’s own projections. The hard work is paying off. SBP has been persistent in buying dollars from the interbank market, and now, finally, the international commercial financing channel has reopened. The next move is to tap into the international bond market — starting with the Panda bond, followed by a Eurobond issuance.
  • In a significant economic achievement, the government of Pakistan has demonstrated its firm commitment to fiscal discipline and long-term stability by retiring Rs 1.5 trillion in public debt ahead of schedule in FY25. This substantial early repayment has contributed to a notable improvement in Pakistan’s fiscal indicators, bringing the debt-to-GDP ratio down from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said on Monday.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside likely - By JS Research

Jul 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a positive session to close at 133,370, up 1,421 points DoD. Volumes stood at 920mn shares compared to 733mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is likely to retest yesterday’s high of 133,862; a break above this level could target 135,232, with potential to rise further towards 137,549 level. Meanwhile, any downside will be tested between 132,460 and 132,610 levels, respectively. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. The support and resistance are placed at 132,604 and 133,999, respectively.
Morning News: SBP governor speaks of policy mix: - By HMFS Research

Jul 8 2025


HMFS Research


  • Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Jameel Ahmad has said that unlike in the previous episodes of boom-bust cycles, the current policy mix remains conducive to a lasting increase in economic activity rather than a short-sighted, fragile, and populist ‘sugar rush’. Governor SBP also assured that SBP is fully committed to undertake structural reforms and lay the foundation for sustainable and inclusive economic growth. Both SBP and the government remain steadfast in their approach to transitioning from recently hard-earned economic stability to a medium-term economic transformation. This resolve is reflected in our prudent and cautious monetary policy stance, and fundamentals aligned exchange rate, and ongoing fiscal consolidation and improving debt dynamics.
  • The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said. Pakistan’s debtto-GDP ratio decreased from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25 due to early debt repayments. The successful buyback of Rs1 trillion in market debt, completed by December 2024, marked the first such operation in Pakistan’s history. Alongside this, the early repayment of the SBP Rs500 billion debt has collectively led to the early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt during FY25, said Khurram Schehzad, an advisor to the finance minister. The early retirement of central bank debt, executed by the Debt Management Office (DMO), marks a breakthrough in Pakistan’s debt management strategy. Early debt retirement while converting shorter tenure with longer-tenure debt significantly reduces concentration risk, lowers future liabilities, and strengthens the country’s macroeconomic foundations by curbing reliance on borrowings.
  • The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has notified businesses, including importers, suppliers, and manufacturers, of tightened restrictions under Section 21 of the Income Tax Ordinance for FY26, aimed at discouraging excessive cash dealings and broadening the tax net. Under the directive, any cash transaction exceeding PKR 200,000 will not be treated as an allowable business expense. Consequently: 50% of such expenditure will be recognized for tax purposes. The disallowed portion will attract an additional tax burden, effectively raising the cost by 20.5%.For completely disallowed transactions, the effective impact could surge to 79.5%. Businesses are urged to ensure all supplier and client payments are processed through proper banking channels to avoid heavy penalties and additional scrutiny by FBR
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day July 7, 2025 - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1.4% to an all-time intraday high of 133,862.01, driven by optimism over trade negotiations, macroeconomic stability, and a strong corporate earnings outlook. Falling inflation, strengthening FX reserves, and capital inflows are enhancing investor confidence, while higher taxes on alternative assets are redirecting capital into equities. With earnings season ahead and technical indicators breaking new ground, we expect the bullish momentum to persist in the near term, supported by favorable macro trends and reallocation from fixed-income instruments.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Carries KSE-100 Beyond 133,000 - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market continued its unrelenting bullish streak, surging past the 133,862 mark for the first time in history. This milestone rally was fueled by renewed investor confidence, driven by key trade developments and sector-specific momentum. Investor sentiment received a notable boost as Pakistan and the U.S. concluded a critical round of trade talks ahead of the July 9 deadline. While an official announcement is still awaited, early signs point to a favorable deal for Pakistan’s export sectors. Adding to the positive momentum, OGDC reported a production uplift following the successful installation of an ESP at Rajian-05, where it holds full ownership—further reinforcing its operational strength. The rally was led by the banking and fertilizer sectors, supported by expectations of strong upcoming results and favorable sectoral tailwinds. The KSE-100 index closed at 133,370 level, up 1,421 points in a robust session. Market activity remained upbeat, with 344 million shares traded on the KSE100 and total market volume reaching 915 million shares. Volume leaders included IMAGE (48mn), BOP (43mn), and WTL (37mn). While a short-term breather cannot be ruled out given the sharp upward trajectory, overall sentiment is expected to remain strong amid continued macroeconomic improvement. Investors are advised to stay focused on fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC enhances production at Rajian-05 well - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has enhanced production in Rajian-05 through installation of electrical submersible pumps (ESP). Following the workover, production has increased to 3.1kbpd of oil and 1.0mmcfd of gas, compared to 1.1k bpd/0.5mmcfd of oil/gas during 3QFY25. Notably, OGDC is the wholly-owned operator of the Rajian heavy oil field, where several workovers and artificial lift systems have been implemented at previous wells to expedite revival. We anticipate the aforementioned development to have an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR1.3 per sh for OGDC, respectively.
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
  • All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
  • For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By Vector Research

Jul 7 2025


Vector Securities


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations, reaching an understanding on a deal that could shape the future of the country’s key export sectors. The delegation arrived in Washington on Monday with the aim of finalising a long-term reciprocal tariff agreement that would prevent the re-imposition of a 29 per cent tariff on Pakistani exports — primarily textiles and agricultural products. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline.
  • Pakistan and Azerbaijan in a major development Friday signed a partnership agreement. The agreement for investment of a total of $2 billion by Azerbaijan in the economic sector of Pakistan.
  • Foreign exchange companies contributed around $450 million to remittance inflows during June, taking their total contribution to approximately $5 billion in FY25, according to the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP). “We sold about $450m to banks in June, highlighting our growing role in supporting the country’s exchange rate stability,” said Zafar Paracha, Secretary General of ECAP.
Morning News: Forex reserves climb to $18bn as of June 27 - By Vector Research

Jul 4 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves rose by $3.694 billion to $18.09 billion in the week ending June 27, the central bank said on Thursday, indicating a significant improvement in the country’s current account balance and the realisation of planned inflows. The forex reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by $3.66 billion to $12.73 billion in the reporting week due to receipt of the multilateral and commercial loans, the SBP said in the statement.
  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb advanced strategic partnerships during a series of high-level bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FFD4), held this week in Seville. Representing Pakistan at the UN-backed conference that ran from June 30 to July 3, Aurangzeb held discussions with counterparts and institutional leaders to bolster cooperation in trade, climate resilience, digital transformation and development finance.
  • Pakistan has adopted an 'open handed policy' to award multibillion-dollar mining contracts, by providing equal opportunities to global competitors including the United States (US), China and Russia. China and Russia have long been arch-rivals of the US. At present, Pakistan is simultaneously engaging with all three countries.
Morning News: June CPI inflation clocks in at 3.2pc YoY - By Vector Research

Jul 2 2025


Vector Securities


  • The Consumer Price Index-based inflation clocked in at 3.2 percent on year-on-year basis in June 2025 as compared to 3.5 percent of the previous month and 12.6 percent in June 2024, says the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, it increased by 0.2per cent in June 2025 as compared to a decrease of 0.2per cent in the previous month and an increase of 0.5per cent in June 2024.
  • According to the PBS data, imports grew 6.57pc to $58.38bn in July-June FY25 from $54.78bn over the last year. Imports surged to $4.86bn in June from $4.96bn last year, a decline of 1.97pc. Month-on-month, imports decreased 7.08pc. The trade deficit in July-June FY25 increased by 9pc to $26.27bn from $24.11bn over the last year. In June, the deficit decelerated by 3.45pc to $2.32bn from $2.41bn last year. The trade gap contracted to $24.08bn in FY24 from $27.47bn in the preceding year.
  • Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) Chairman Rashid Mahmood Langrial Tuesday said that to achieve a national tax-to-GDP ratio of 18 percent by 2027–28, the provinces would be required to contribute three percent (currently 0.8 percent), amounting to Rs5.265 trillion annually (currently Rs961 billion), and the federation 15 percent (currently 11.3 percent, including the petroleum development levy (PDL)).
Morning News: Sovereign default risk; Pakistan most improved economy: Bloomberg - By Vector Research

Jun 30 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan stands out globally as the most improved economy in terms of reduction in sovereign default risk, as measured by CDS-implied probability. As per the latest data posted by Bloomberg Intelligence, Pakistan leads the world in sovereign risk improvement and tops global EM rankings. Pakistan topped Global EM Rankings in Default Risk Reduction, as the country has recorded the largest drop in sovereign default risk globally over the last 12 months.
  • In a timely supportive move, China has extended rollover and refinancing of its $3.4 billion commercial loans, facilitating Islamabad to meet the IMF condition of keeping the foreign reserves at over $14 billion at the end of the current fiscal year on June 30. China has rolled over $2.1 billion, which has been lying in the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) for the last three years, and also refinanced another $1.3 billion commercial loan, which Islamabad had paid back two months ago. Another $1 billion from Middle Eastern commercial banks and $500 million from multilateral financing has also been received, an official confided.
  • Flood project; Govtseeks $31m financing boost from WB The government of Pakistan has requested the World Bank for increasing the financing envelope by $31 million as well as restructuring of Integrated Flood Resilience and Adaptation Project.
Morning News: IMF may object to cap relaxation for transactions by ‘ineligible persons’ in revised finance bill - By Vector Research

Jun 25 2025


Vector Securities


  • The IMF may raise objections to the revised Finance Bill 2025-26 which proposes relaxations for increasing thresholds to ban “ineligible persons” from buying property and vehicles.
  • The government of Pakistan and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Tuesday signed a $350 million loan agreement for the “Women Inclusive Finance Sector Development Program (Subprogram-II)”.
  • Pakistan government has requested the World Bank (WB) for restructuring of the Higher Education Development in Pakistan (HEDP) project worth $393.73 million for the fourth time to allow for completion of critical information technology (IT) and ITrelated activities at the universities whose impact will be seen beyond the project period.
Morning News: Pakistan seeking to get two loans of $3.3bn from Chinese banks - By Vector Research

Jun 24 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan is aiming to secure $3.3 billion in the form of two foreign loans — one a syndicated loan and the other a refinancing of commercial loans — from Chinese banks within the next few days. It is expected that the foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will surpass the $14 billion mark if this deal materialises within the outgoing financial year, which ends on June 30.
  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Monday unveiled additional budget proposals in the National Assembly, introducing new taxation measures and announcing economic initiatives aimed at broadening the tax base and promoting compliance. Aurangzeb proposed an increase in the tax rate on income derived from the debt portion of mutual funds issued to companies, raising it from 25 percent to 29 percent.
  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Monday formally unveiled a Rs36 billion mini budget in the National Assembly and announced to exclude almost the entire population from disclosing source of income before buying a big home, a car or running a bank account.
Morning News: New taxation measures announced - By Vector Research

Jun 23 2025


Vector Securities


  • Chairman Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) Rashid Mahmood Langrial Sunday announced new taxation measures of Rs 36 billion to narrow down financial gap on account of reduction in sales tax from 18 percent to 10 percent on solar panels and proposed increase in salary for government employees. FBR Chairman highlighted that the measures have been proposed to fill the financial gap for 2025-26. National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance approved following three new taxation measures: (i); Federal Excise Duty of 10 percent on Day old Chicks (DOC) of poultry sector. (ii); Rate of tax increased from 25 percent to 29 percent on dividend received by a company from mutual fund deriving income from profit on debt. (iii); Withholding tax has been increased from 15 to 20 percent on profit on government securities paid to any person (institutional investors) other than an individual.
  • Pakistan secured nearly $20bn in foreign loans and grants during the first 11 months (JulyMay) of 2024-25, surpassing the annual target of $19.2bn set for the fiscal year ending June 30. Almost half of this amount comprised legacy rollovers from China, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, while fresh loans and grant inflows totalled $6.89bn — about 9pc lower than the same period last fiscal year.
  • The World Bank said Thursday it is worried that some countries are less and less transparent about their public debt and use complex borrowing tools, making it harder to measure how much they owe. To remedy this the bank called for a fundamental change in the way debtor and creditor countries report and disclose debt. The worries concern in particular lowincome countries that make increasing use of borrowing arrangements the bank considers opaque. These include private placements — a kind of funding round done not publicly but privately, central bank swaps, and collateralized transactions, the bank said in a report on debt transparency.
Morning News: SBP forex reserves rise by $46m to $11.72bn - By Vector Research

Jun 20 2025


Vector Securities


  • The country’s total liquid foreign reserves rose by $130 million to $17.005 billion. The reserves of commercial banks increased by $83 million to $5.283 billion. The SBP’s reserves continued to increase due to a current account surplus. Inflows from the International Monetary Fund, rollovers from friendly nations, and the SBP’s dollar buying from the market also played a crucial role in bolstering forex reserves.
  • Federal Minister for Energy Ali Pervaiz Malik is leading Pakistan's delegation to the St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) 2025 from June 18–21, 2025. According to an official statement issued Thursday, Malik held key meetings on the sidelines of the forum, including one with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Tsivilev, who also chairs the Pakistan Russia Inter-Governmental Commission (IGC). Both sides discussed avenues for cooperation in energy, connectivity, trade, investment, banking, insurance, mining, and people-to-people exchanges.
  • The government has flagged a series of critical risks to next year’s budget and medium-term outlook, including slower than targeted GDP growth, inflation shocks, exchange rate volatility, lower revenue buoyancy, debt servicing costs, poor performance of state-owned entities (SOEs) and unexpected climatic and other natural disasters.
Morning News: Pakistan returns to commercial debt market, clinches $1bn loan facility - By Vector Research

Jun 19 2025


Vector Securities


  • In the aftermath of the IMF program, Pakistan has resumed commercial financing from international banks and signed a syndicated loan of $1 billion for five years. Islamabad is also making arrangements for securing refinancing of a $1.3 billion loan from Chinese banks, and it is expected that a total of $2.3 billion will be obtained by June 30, 2025. The foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan are expected to go up in the coming weeks with the help of borrowed dollar inflows. The foreign exchange reserves may go close to $14 billion mark against $11.6 billion standing on June 6, 2025. The two separate commercial loan facility will help Pakistan to increase its foreign exchange reserves.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Wednesday said the government successfully convinced the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to exempt Pakistan’s agriculture sector from taxation, despite persistent demands from the global lender.
  • Financial inclusion in Pakistan has seen a remarkable fourfold increase over the past decade, rising from just 8.0 per cent in 2013 to 35 per cent in 2024, according to the newly released Karandaaz Financial Inclusion Survey (K-FIS) 2024. The survey, launched by Karandaaz Pakistan, provides vital demand-side data and marks 10 years of tracking financial behaviours across the country.
Morning News: $3bn financing for Reko Diq project advances with IFC/IDA approval of loan - By Vector Research

Jun 18 2025


Vector Securities


  • Reko Diq Mining Company (RDMC) is continuing to progress with the raising of up to $3 billion of limited recourse project finance to support the development of Phase 1 of the Reko Diq project involving a group of lenders including the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the International Development Association (IDA), Asian Development Bank (ADB), US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), Export-Import Bank of the United States (US EXIM), Export Development Canada (EDC), Euler Hermes AG and KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH of Germany, Export kreditnämnden (EKN) of Sweden, and Finnvera Oyi (Finnvera) of Finland, together with a covered commercial bank tranche. RDMC remains on track to sign project finance documents and have the project loan available for initial drawdown in the second half of 2025.
  • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) fell by 7.6 per cent to $1,979 million during the first 11 months of FY25 compared to $2,142m in the same period last fiscal year, showed data issued by the State Bank on Tuesday. FDI in May declined by 36 per cent year-on-year to $111m. The inflow in April was $140m, March $26m, February $94.7m and January $194m.
  • Pakistan’s current account recorded a surplus of $1.8 billion during the first 11 months of the current fiscal year (FY25), largely supported by robust inflows of workers’ remittances.