National Bank of Pakistan (NBP): CY24 AGM Takeaways - By AKD Research

Mar 26 2025


AKD Securities


  • National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) bank held its Annual General Meeting (AGM) yesterday, during which following key matters were discussed:
  • Pension Expense Provisioning: The bank has provisioned PkR81bn for past-due pension liabilities under compensation costs during the year. Moving forward, based on actuarial valuations, management anticipates an annual charge of ~PkR10bn on a recurring basis under the head of pension expenses.
  • TSA Implementation update: A cumulative outflow of PkR350bn in public-sector deposits has been recorded so far, with PkR125bn exiting during CY24. Moving forward, outstanding outflows are expected to be more gradual, with a remaining balance of PkR600bn as per management. • Divestment of Investments: The bank divested its 45% stake in United National Bank Ltd (UNBL) in the UK, recording a gain of PkR5.7bn. Additionally, the sale of Agritech Ltd added PkR6.4bn to profits. The bank also closed its Paris and New York branches in compliance with regulatory directives.
National Bank of Pakistan (NBP): CY24 AGM Takeaways - By AKD Research

Mar 26 2025


AKD Securities


  • National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) bank held its Annual General Meeting (AGM) yesterday, during which following key matters were discussed:
  • Pension Expense Provisioning: The bank has provisioned PkR81bn for past-due pension liabilities under compensation costs during the year. Moving forward, based on actuarial valuations, management anticipates an annual charge of ~PkR10bn on a recurring basis under the head of pension expenses.
  • TSA Implementation update: A cumulative outflow of PkR350bn in public-sector deposits has been recorded so far, with PkR125bn exiting during CY24. Moving forward, outstanding outflows are expected to be more gradual, with a remaining balance of PkR600bn as per management. • Divestment of Investments: The bank divested its 45% stake in United National Bank Ltd (UNBL) in the UK, recording a gain of PkR5.7bn. Additionally, the sale of Agritech Ltd added PkR6.4bn to profits. The bank also closed its Paris and New York branches in compliance with regulatory directives.
Pakistan Economy: Mar-2025 CPI clocks in at 0.7%, a six-decade low - By JS Research

Apr 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • CPI for Mar-2025 clocked in at 0.7%, lowest since 1965. The main contributor to this was the significant decrease in food inflation, which declined 5.1% YoY in Mar-2025.
  • Our average CPI forecast for FY25E is ~5.3%, including a rebound expected in May and June figures. We expect Prime Minister's recent announcement of an ~18% reduction in electricity prices to provide additional support in lowering overall inflation. 
  • The SBP did not cut interest rates in the last MPC meeting but based on the lower-than-expected inflation readings thus far, we may see a cut in rates going forward. At present, the real interest rate (RIR) hovers around ~11.3pp.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 setting new high - By JS Research

Apr 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a positive session, closing at 118,938, up 1,131 points DoD. Trading volumes stood at 423mn shares, compared to 330mn shares previously. The index is expected to face resistance between 119,180 and 119,430, with a breakout targeting 120,937 and 122,299, respectively. On the downside, support is anticipated in the 117,900-118,540 range. The RSI and MACD have moved up, reinforcing a positive outlook. We recommend investors view any downside as a ‘Buy’ opportunity, with risk defined below 117,508. The support and resistance levels are at 117,904 and 119,575, respectively.
Morning News: Goods exports rise by 7.7% to $24.7bn in nine months - By Vector Research

Apr 4 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s exports climbed 7.7 percent to $24.7 billion in the first nine months of the fiscal year 2024-25, bolstered by gains in textiles, rice and other key agricultural products. The policymakers expect total exports to surpass $33 billion by June, aiming to sustain the momentum despite economic headwinds.
  • Pakistan's annual inflation rate slowed to just 0.7% in March, the lowest level in over 57 years, primarily due to a reduction in prices of perishable food items and some relief in electricity rates. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Thursday reported that the price spiral significantly eased in March compared to a year ago. It was the lowest inflation rate since September 1968, when the country recorded an annual inflation rate below 0.7%.
  • Pakistan’s central bank’s foreign exchange reserves increased by $70 million to $10.68 billion during the week ended March 28, the State Bank of Pakistan said on Thursday. The total liquid foreign reserves held by the country also rose by $29 million to $15.58 billion. However, the reserves of commercial banks fell by $41 million to $4.903 billion.
Economy: Sweeping Tariff Hikes Announced - By IIS Research

Apr 4 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new set of tariffs aimed at reducing trade imbalances and protecting American industries. Starting April 5, a 10% tariff will apply to all imports into the United States. In addition, much higher tariffs will be imposed on certain countries, including a 34% tariff on Chinese goods and a 20% tariff on European Union exports, beginning April 9. The U.S. government believes these actions will help bring back manufacturing jobs and reduce its trade deficit. However, the move has caused strong reactions from affected countries like China and the EU, who have promised to take countermeasures. Global markets have already reacted negatively, with Asian stock markets falling sharply and U.S. and European futures showing losses. Experts are warning that these tariffs could increase inflation, raise production costs, and slow down economic growth both in the U.S. and worldwide.
  • For Pakistan, this situation presents both challenges and possible advantages. In 2024, Pakistan exported around $5.7 billion worth of goods to the U.S., and 80– 85% of that was textile-related products such as garments, home textiles, and fabrics. Pakistani textile exports will face a 29% tariff in the U.S., which is high compared to many other countries. However, with the U.S. now increasing tariffs even more on countries like China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh—Pakistan’s main competitors in textiles there could be a window of opportunity. If U.S. buyers look for cheaper alternatives to avoid higher tariffs on Chinese and Vietnamese goods, Pakistani products may become more attractive.
Economy: March CPI Clocked in at 0.7%YoY - By Sherman Research

Apr 3 2025


Sherman Securities


  • CPI for March’25 is recorded at 0.7%YoY compared to 1.5%YoY during the previous month thanks to decrease in food & housing index and base effect.
  • The food index reported disinflation (i.e. down 5.1%YoY) in March’25 which is highest decline since recent history. This decrease is primarily due to decline in prices of wheat flour (down 35%), wheat (down 35%), onions (down 71%), fresh vegetables (down 32%) and tomatoes (down 54%).
  • On a MoM basis, inflation increased by 0.9%MoM primarily driven by food index (up 1.9%MoM) and slight decline in housing index (down 0.1%MoM) mainly due to decline in electricity charges (down 1.3%MoM). The uptick in inflation was largely attributed to the Ramzan effect.
Economy: Reciprocal Tariffs of US Impact on Pakistan and Listed Cos - By Topline Research

Apr 3 2025


Topline Securities


  • The United States of America (USA) has imposed reciprocal tariffs on its trading partners including Pakistan, aiming to boost domestic manufacturing by making foreign imports expensive and to raise revenue.
  • The reciprocal duties ranges from 10-48%, which reportedly is in addition to universal tariff of 10% on all countries.
  • The reciprocal duties are imposed with the exception of Mexico and Canada as these countries were subject to previously announced tariffs of 10-25%. While certain goods from key industries i.e. steel, aluminum, automobiles, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber - are also exempt from these rates.
Economy: Mar-2025: 4% MoM gain led by IMF’s positive feedback - By JS Research

Apr 3 2025


JS Global Capital


  • KSE-100 posted monthly gain of 4% or 4.55k points for the month of March, after seeing negative returns for the first two months of CY25. This was primarily led by the positive outcome of IMF’s review. KSE-100 also hit all time high of 118.7k points but didn’t manage to sustain due to weaker trading activity reflecting the Ramadan affect. ADTO was down 29% MoM in terms of shares traded, where mutual funds (Net Outflow: US$295mn) and foreigners (Net Outflow: US$12mn) were net sellers during the month while banks were net buyers.
  • We witnessed interest in Energy stocks during the month on back of expectation of IMF approval for government's proposal to address the outstanding circular debt. Resultantly, Energy sector stocks mainly PSO, SNGP, PPL and OGDC reported MoM gains of 29%, 19%, 12%, 10% respectively from their lows seen during the month.
  • IMF staff and Pakistani authorities reached an SLA on the first review under Pakistan’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and a new 28-month Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangement with total access of US$1.3bn (SDR 1bn). Pakistan is now expected to receive US$2.3bn including immediate disbursement of US$1bn under the 2nd tranche of EFF by early-May subsequent to IMF board approval meanwhile IMF team is also due in May to review the FY26 Budget. IMF mission highlighted Pakistan efforts towards achieving macroeconomic stability and fiscal reforms aims at maintaining tight monetary policy to keep medium term inflation within 5%-7%, achieving primary surplus target of 1% of GDP, continuing energy sector reforms to reduce circular debt (integration of CPPs to the grid and power tariffs adjustment) and implementation of climate reforms in order to comply with the RSF (including introduction of carbon levy, water pricing).
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation to continue - By JS Research

Apr 3 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile session to close at 117,807, up 34 points DoD. Volumes stood low at 330mn shares compared to 357mn shares traded in the previous session. The current pattern suggests further consolidation ahead. Meanwhile, a fall below 117,551 (Thursday’s low) will extend the decline towards the 30-DMA currently at 114,731 level. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 118,120-118,440 where a break above potentially targeting 120,937 and 122,299 levels, respectively. We advise investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance levels are at 117,523 and 118,119, respectively.
Morning News: IMF’s RSF; Pakistan to get $1.3bn in tranches - By Vector Research

Apr 3 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Director of Communications Julie Kozack said Pakistan will receive $1.3 billion under Resilience and Sustainable Facility (RSF) in tranches over 28 months. Speaking at a press conference, Kozack said that for the RSF over the length of the arrangement, subject to approval by the IMF’s Executive Board, the staff-level agreement references an amount of $1.3 billion and that access will be over the life of the RSF, delivered in tranches.
  • Azerbaijan has offered over $1 billion loan in cash deposit in response to Pakistan's request for funding the $1.2 billion Sukkur-Hyderabad motorway amid a disagreement among various government departments over the mode of lending.
  • Remittances are expected to cross a record high of $3.5 billion in March, rising 15 per cent month-on-month, driven largely by inflows during Ramazan, according to financial experts and currency dealer.
Morning News: IMF’s RSF; Pakistan to get $1.3bn in tranches - By WE Research

Apr 3 2025



  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that Pakistan will receive $1.3 billion under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) in tranches over 28 months, subject to approval by the IMF's Executive Board. This follows a staff-level agreement reached on March 25, 2025, after the first review of Pakistan's 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF), which was approved in September 2024 for $7 billion. The RSF disbursements, which are spread over the duration of the arrangement, will be provided alongside a $1 billion disbursement from the EFF once the Executive Board approves the first review.
  • Azerbaijan has offered over $1 billion in cash deposits to Pakistan to fund the construction of the $1.2 billion Sukkur-Hyderabad motorway, following a request from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif during his recent visit. The proposal includes two options: Azerbaijan’s State Oil Fund placing a term cash deposit with Pakistan’s State Bank, which would then lend the money to the National Highway Authority (NHA), or Azerbaijan, in collaboration with the Islamic Development Bank, directly funding the project. Pakistan has also sought financing for the Hyderabad-Karachi motorway (M-9), estimated to cost $600 million. Despite this offer, there is a lack of consensus among Pakistani government departments, with the Finance Ministry opposing the cash deposit route. The NHA is exploring options, including public-private partnerships, to move forward with the projects, but delays are expected due to limited fiscal space. This comes amid ongoing efforts to secure foreign investments and address Pakistan's infrastructure needs while grappling with political and economic instability.
  • The federal government has announced a reduction in the price of petrol by Rs1 per litre, effective from March 29, lowering the price to Rs254.63 from Rs255.63. However, the price of High-Speed Diesel remains unchanged at Rs258.64 per litre. The price adjustments, recommended by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), were made based on fluctuations in international market rates, with the aim of providing relief to consumers.
Economy: IMF supplements EFF program with Resilience and Sustainability Facility - By AKD Research

Mar 26 2025


AKD Securities


  • The IMF team has reached SLA with the Pakistani authorities on the first review of EFF and a new 28-month arrangement of US$1.3bn under Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
  • Fund recognizes Pakistan's substantial progress in restoring macroeconomic stability and rebuilding confidence despite a challenging global environment.
  • Successful completion of first review would pave the way for KSE-100 to reach 165,215 by Dec’25.
National Bank of Pakistan (NBP): CY24 AGM Takeaways - By AKD Research

Mar 26 2025


AKD Securities


  • National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) bank held its Annual General Meeting (AGM) yesterday, during which following key matters were discussed:
  • Pension Expense Provisioning: The bank has provisioned PkR81bn for past-due pension liabilities under compensation costs during the year. Moving forward, based on actuarial valuations, management anticipates an annual charge of ~PkR10bn on a recurring basis under the head of pension expenses.
  • TSA Implementation update: A cumulative outflow of PkR350bn in public-sector deposits has been recorded so far, with PkR125bn exiting during CY24. Moving forward, outstanding outflows are expected to be more gradual, with a remaining balance of PkR600bn as per management. • Divestment of Investments: The bank divested its 45% stake in United National Bank Ltd (UNBL) in the UK, recording a gain of PkR5.7bn. Additionally, the sale of Agritech Ltd added PkR6.4bn to profits. The bank also closed its Paris and New York branches in compliance with regulatory directives.
Systems Limited (SYS): 4QCY24 Result Review - Earnings up 32% YoY, with MENA region at the helm - By AKD Research

Mar 24 2025


AKD Securities


  • Systems Limited (SYS) announced its 4QCY24 financial results today, wherein the company posted Profit after Tax (PAT) of PkR2.0bn (EPS: PkR6.9) vs. PkR1.5bn (EPS: PkR5.3) in SPLY, up 31.5%YoY. However, earnings were below our estimate, primarily due to higher than anticipated operating expenses and impairment losses. Alongside the result, company declared a final cash dividend of PkR6.0/sh and announced a share split in a 5:1 ratio.
  • Company reported revenue of PkR19.2bn in 4QCY24, compared to PkR16.1bn in SPLY, up 19.0%YoY. The growth in topline is attributed to robust growth of 17.4%/13.6%/84.3%YoY in the MENA/North America/Europe regions, respectively.
  • Gross margins clocked in at 24.4%, up from 22.0% in 4QCY23. This increase can primarily be attributed to improvement in gross margins in North America region to 30.2% from 25.7% in 4QCY23. In contrast, MENA region saw a drop in gross margins to 26.8%, declining from 28.0% in 4QCY23.
Mari Energies Ltd (MARI): Second discovery at Spinwam -1, Waziristan Block - By AKD Research

Mar 17 2025


AKD Securities


  • Mari Energies Ltd (MARI) has achieved a second discovery at the Spinwam -1 well in the Waziristan Block, KPK (working interest: 55%), with tested flows of 20.5mmcfd of gas and 117bpd of oil. Notably, first discovery at Spinwam -1 was announced in late Feb’25, with the latest find bringing cumulative production potential to 33.4mmcfd of gas and 137bpd of oil. We estimate Spinwam -1 well to contribute annualized EPS impact of PkR3.48/sh for MARI and PkR0.62/sh for OGDC.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): Gas discovery at Soghri North-1, Attock - By AKD Research

Mar 17 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has successfully made a discovery at the Soghri North-1 exploratory well in Attock District, Punjab, yielding 13.95mmcfd of gas and 430bpd of oil, respectively. Notably, this marks OGDC’s seventh successful discovery/ production enhancement during CYTD, reflecting company’s improving ability to carry E&P activities, supported by a strengthened liquidity position. We estimate the new find to contribute annualized EPS impact of PkR1.03/sh for OGDC.
Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FATIMA) : 4QCY24 Result Review Record earnings on higher sales and improved margins - By AKD Research

Mar 14 2025


AKD Securities


  • Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FATIMA) announced its 4QCY24 financial results, reporting consolidated earnings of PkR13.6bn (EPS: PkR6.5), compared to PkR10.0bn (EPS: PkR4.8) in SPLY, an increase of 36%YoY. The said growth is primarily attributed to higher sales and improved gross margins. The earnings came in line with our expectations. Alongside the result, company announced a final cash dividend of PkR4.25/sh, taking the full-year dividend to PkR7.0/sh.
  • Revenue stood at PkR85.9bn, a 16%YoY increase from PkR74.0bn in SPLY. The said growth is driven by increase in retention prices across the product line, with quarterly avg. prices rising 26%/23%/9%YoY for Urea, CAN, and NP, respectively. Additionally, sales volumes for Urea, CAN, and NP increased by 1%/1%/48%YoY, respectively.
  • Gross margins improved to 31.5% from 30.3% in SPLY, mainly due to the increase in retention prices and the availability of comparatively low-cost gas for the company’s Sadiqabad plant.
Automobile Assemblers: Auto sales continue momentum in Feb’25 - By AKD Research

Mar 12 2025


AKD Securities


  • In Feb’25, the auto sector witnessed a surge in volumes, up 5%YoY, with total industry sales reaching 14,091 units. The incline in sales was largely attributable to a 24%YoY increase in passenger car and LCVs sales.
  • Segment-wise, passenger cars with engine capacities of 1000cc & above emerged as the top-performing segment, clocking in at 4,700 units (up 19%YoY), primarily attributable to increased sales of Fortuner & IMVs.
  • Amongst the major OEMs, INDU/HCAR posted growth of 28%/35%YoY, respectively.
Economy: Subdued economic activity and low inflation justify 100bps rate cut - By AKD Research

Mar 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • We anticipate SBP to lower interest rates by 100bps due to subdued economic activity, contraction in money and declining trade numbers.
  • We project positive real interest rates to remain around 7.0% based on our 12-M forward inflation forecast that are currently standing at 1,048bps in Feb’25.
  • Monetary easing on the back of improving macroeconomic situation and IMF Extended Fund Facility would increase appeal for equities, in our view.
Pakistan Cement: Dispatches post double-digit growth for second consecutive month - By AKD Research

Mar 6 2025


AKD Securities


  • Cement dispatches for Feb’25 clocked in at 3.6mn tons, an increase of 10%YoY, driven by 7%/34%YoY growth in local and export offtakes, respectively.
  • Profitability of AKD cement universe posted an increase of 29%YoY in 1HFY25, due to ease in coal prices and declining finance cost.
  • We expect FY25E cement offtakes to decline by 2%YoY, driven by a 6%YoY contraction in local dispatches, while exports are expected to rise.
Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL): CY24 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

Mar 6 2025


AKD Securities


  • Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL) held its analyst briefing yesterday, where-in the management discussed the following:
  • Bank’s profit for CY24 stood at PkR38.3bn (EPS: PkR24.3), up 5%YoY, due to higher Non-Interest income and low credit allowance charge.
  • Along with result the bank has announced final payout of PkR2.5/sh, taking full year payout to PkR8.5/sh
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