Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Inflation Preview - By AHCML Research

Mar 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation for Mar’25 is likely to come in at 0.72% YoY, compared to 1.52% YoY in Feb’25 and 20.68% YoY in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to clock in at 0.9% MoM, driven by an increase in food and clothing, which is expected to fuel inflation in Mar’25. The high base effect still exists and may persist until Apr’25.
  • The increase in monthly inflation is expected due to rising prices of Fresh Fruits, Tomatoes, Chicken and Sugar, which are anticipated to increase during the month.
  • Going forward, the decline in agricultural and industrial output, along with water shortages, is expected to put pressure on imports, subsequently fueling inflation. Additionally, the higher base remains a significant factor; however, it ends in April’25. Stability in the PKR, along with any decline in energy-related commodity prices, could help slow the pace of inflation.
Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Inflation Preview - By AHCML Research

Mar 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation for Mar’25 is likely to come in at 0.72% YoY, compared to 1.52% YoY in Feb’25 and 20.68% YoY in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to clock in at 0.9% MoM, driven by an increase in food and clothing, which is expected to fuel inflation in Mar’25. The high base effect still exists and may persist until Apr’25.
  • The increase in monthly inflation is expected due to rising prices of Fresh Fruits, Tomatoes, Chicken and Sugar, which are anticipated to increase during the month.
  • Going forward, the decline in agricultural and industrial output, along with water shortages, is expected to put pressure on imports, subsequently fueling inflation. Additionally, the higher base remains a significant factor; however, it ends in April’25. Stability in the PKR, along with any decline in energy-related commodity prices, could help slow the pace of inflation.
Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 NCPI clocks-in at 1.5%YoY/-0.8%MoM - By Taurus Research

Mar 4 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Headline inflation for Feb’25 clocks-in at 1.5%YoY/-0.8%MoM, lowest in a decade, taking the FYTD NCPI to under 6%YoY. Hence, the real-interest rate has also risen to 10.5%.Wherein, 2.7% MoM drop in the food index (35% weight) was the major contributor to the lower NCPI readings, along with stable core inflation.
  • In geographical terms, CPI for Feb’25 was recorded at 1.81%YoY and 1.1%YoY in Urban and Rural areas, respectively. However, core inflation remained largely unchanged on a MoM basis, arriving at 7.8% in Urban and 10.4% in Rural areas. Nevertheless, the decline in food prices was mainly driven by a sharp fall in prices of Wheat, Wheat Flour, Vegetables like Onions, Tomatoes etc., Eggs, certain pulses and Tea. Utilities was down 0.3%MoM.
  • SPI was recorded at 30.4%YoY, along with WPI at 18.7%YoY.
Economy: Feb-25 NCPI expected at 1.8% YoY - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Feb 20 2025


Alpha Capital


  • The headline CPI is expected to arrive at 1.8% YoY in Feb-24, continuing the declining inflation trend, following a reading of 2.4% YoY in Jan-24. We expect average inflation of 5.2% YoY for FY25 with a run rate of 0.6% MoM. The base effect continues to contribute to the declining inflation trend, bringing the print down to the lowest in two decades. MoM inflation is expected to decrease by 0.6% MoM for the first time since May-24, primarily due to the Food segment (down by 2.4% MoM) and a negative Fuel Charge Adjustment (FCA), reducing the average electricity tarrif. The Transport segment is expected to exhibit an increasing trend (up by 1.1% MoM) owing to the rising POL prices.
  • The Food segment is expected to decline by 2.4% MoM in Feb-25. Items driving the reduction in prices include: tomatoes (-54.6% MoM), onions (-27.4% MoM) and potatoes (- 20.8% MoM). Additionally, wheat prices are expected to reduce by 2.3% MoM due to abolishment of wheat support price, as per the agreement with the IMF.
  • The Utilities segment is expected to stay flattish (up by 0.1% MoM) on the back of a negative FCA of PKR 1.23/kwh for Dec-24, which is expected to reduce average electricity tariff for consumers in Feb-24.
Economy: Jan’25 NCPI arrives at 2.4%YoY/0.2%MoM - By Taurus Research

Feb 3 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Headline inflation for Jan’25 clocks-in at 2.4%YoY/0.2%MoM, lowest in over nine years, matching broad expectations—taking the average NCPI for FYTD to 6.6%YoY. Wherein, 0.6%MoM drop in the food index (35% weight) was the major contributor to the lower NCPI readings, supported by falling core inflation.
  • On a geographic basis, NCPI in Urban areas clocked-in at 2.72% YoY (4.4%YoY last month); and ~2%YoY in Rural areas (3.6%YoY last month), respectively. Accordingly, core inflation stood at 7.8%YoY and 10.4%YoY in Urban and Rural areas, respectively.
  • Meanwhile, Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the month was recorded at 0.7%YoY as against 4.2%YoY in Dec’24. Further, WPI decreased to 0.6%YoY as against 1.9%YoY in Dec’24.
Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) - By AHCML Research

Jan 23 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation for Jan’25 is likely to arrive at 2.6%YoY versus 4.1%YoY in Dec’24, and 28.3%YoY same period last year. On monthly basis, CPI is expected to increase by 0.4%MoM as increase in Restaurants/Hotels, House, transport and Clothing to derive the inflation pace Jan’25.
  • The rise in monthly inflation is expected due to the mounting prices of Chicken, Pulse Moong, Sugar and Firewood however, prices of Potatoes, Tomatoes, and Eggs expected to decline during the month.
  • Going forward, the decline in crop production in the country, driven by the end of support prices for wheat and cotton, is expected to further fuel food inflation. Additionally, the higher base remains a significant factor in keeping inflation on the lower side. Any changes in energy-related commodities could also impact the inflation trend.
Economy: Dec-24 NCPI expected at 4.3% YoY, lowest since Apr-18 – By Alpha - Akseer Research

Dec 27 2024


Alpha Capital


  • The headline CPI is expected to arrive at 4.3% YoY in Dec-24, continuing the declining inflation trend, following a reading of 4.9% YoY in Nov-24. This is expected to take 1HFY25 average inflation to 7.3% YoY. MoM inflation is expected to remain flattish, up by 0.3% MoM, primarily on the back of (i) a muted trend in the Food segment, (ii) a -1.1% MoM decrease in utilities segment due to a reduction in electricity charges, and (iii) a 0.7% MoM increase in Transport segment due to a rise in POL prices.
  • The Food segment is expected to stay flat with a slight increase of 0.2% MoM in Dec-24, indicating winter effect on perishable food items. Within this category, items driving the reduction in prices include: wheat flour (-2% MoM), chicken (-13% MoM), and tomatoes (-14% MoM).
  • Electricity tariff for Dec-24 depicts the continuation of a downward trend due to (i) a negative FCA of PKR 1.145/kwh, (ii) an updated QTA of PKR 0.196/kwh, and (iii) the introduction of Winter Demand Initiative (WDI) offering a discount on incremental consumption to domestic consumers (using above 200 units). Cumulatively, we expect these developments to reduce electricity charges by 5.9% MoM in Dec-24 and, consequently, a 1.1% MoM fall in the Utilities segment in the NCPI print.
Economy: Nov’24 NCPI to drop to 5.4%YoY/1%MoM – By Taurus Research

Nov 29 2024


Taurus Securities


  • We expect headline inflation for the month of Nov’24 to drop to 5.4%YoY/1%MoM—lowest since Jan’21; amid relatively stable food and utility prices and only a marginal uptick in POL prices. According, FY25 TD NCPI is likely to touchdown at ~8.1%YoY
  • Nevertheless, some sticky core segments continue to drive the general price level upwards albeit at a decelerating momentum like Clothing (9% weight), Health (3% weight), Recreation (2% weight); Education (4% weight); and Restaurants & Hotels (7% weight), respectively. Transport segment to post a gain of 1.5% MoM due to a 1% and 2%MoM increase in MS & HSD prices
  • Going forward, we expect NCPI to remain around the mid-single digits range up to Apr’25, due to falling core inflation and stable fuel and utility prices, supported by a robust external outlook.
Pakistan Economy: Mar-2025 CPI clocks in at 0.7%, a six-decade low - By JS Research

Apr 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • CPI for Mar-2025 clocked in at 0.7%, lowest since 1965. The main contributor to this was the significant decrease in food inflation, which declined 5.1% YoY in Mar-2025.
  • Our average CPI forecast for FY25E is ~5.3%, including a rebound expected in May and June figures. We expect Prime Minister's recent announcement of an ~18% reduction in electricity prices to provide additional support in lowering overall inflation. 
  • The SBP did not cut interest rates in the last MPC meeting but based on the lower-than-expected inflation readings thus far, we may see a cut in rates going forward. At present, the real interest rate (RIR) hovers around ~11.3pp.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 setting new high - By JS Research

Apr 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a positive session, closing at 118,938, up 1,131 points DoD. Trading volumes stood at 423mn shares, compared to 330mn shares previously. The index is expected to face resistance between 119,180 and 119,430, with a breakout targeting 120,937 and 122,299, respectively. On the downside, support is anticipated in the 117,900-118,540 range. The RSI and MACD have moved up, reinforcing a positive outlook. We recommend investors view any downside as a ‘Buy’ opportunity, with risk defined below 117,508. The support and resistance levels are at 117,904 and 119,575, respectively.
Morning News: Goods exports rise by 7.7% to $24.7bn in nine months - By Vector Research

Apr 4 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s exports climbed 7.7 percent to $24.7 billion in the first nine months of the fiscal year 2024-25, bolstered by gains in textiles, rice and other key agricultural products. The policymakers expect total exports to surpass $33 billion by June, aiming to sustain the momentum despite economic headwinds.
  • Pakistan's annual inflation rate slowed to just 0.7% in March, the lowest level in over 57 years, primarily due to a reduction in prices of perishable food items and some relief in electricity rates. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Thursday reported that the price spiral significantly eased in March compared to a year ago. It was the lowest inflation rate since September 1968, when the country recorded an annual inflation rate below 0.7%.
  • Pakistan’s central bank’s foreign exchange reserves increased by $70 million to $10.68 billion during the week ended March 28, the State Bank of Pakistan said on Thursday. The total liquid foreign reserves held by the country also rose by $29 million to $15.58 billion. However, the reserves of commercial banks fell by $41 million to $4.903 billion.
Economy: Sweeping Tariff Hikes Announced - By IIS Research

Apr 4 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new set of tariffs aimed at reducing trade imbalances and protecting American industries. Starting April 5, a 10% tariff will apply to all imports into the United States. In addition, much higher tariffs will be imposed on certain countries, including a 34% tariff on Chinese goods and a 20% tariff on European Union exports, beginning April 9. The U.S. government believes these actions will help bring back manufacturing jobs and reduce its trade deficit. However, the move has caused strong reactions from affected countries like China and the EU, who have promised to take countermeasures. Global markets have already reacted negatively, with Asian stock markets falling sharply and U.S. and European futures showing losses. Experts are warning that these tariffs could increase inflation, raise production costs, and slow down economic growth both in the U.S. and worldwide.
  • For Pakistan, this situation presents both challenges and possible advantages. In 2024, Pakistan exported around $5.7 billion worth of goods to the U.S., and 80– 85% of that was textile-related products such as garments, home textiles, and fabrics. Pakistani textile exports will face a 29% tariff in the U.S., which is high compared to many other countries. However, with the U.S. now increasing tariffs even more on countries like China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh—Pakistan’s main competitors in textiles there could be a window of opportunity. If U.S. buyers look for cheaper alternatives to avoid higher tariffs on Chinese and Vietnamese goods, Pakistani products may become more attractive.
Economy: March CPI Clocked in at 0.7%YoY - By Sherman Research

Apr 3 2025


Sherman Securities


  • CPI for March’25 is recorded at 0.7%YoY compared to 1.5%YoY during the previous month thanks to decrease in food & housing index and base effect.
  • The food index reported disinflation (i.e. down 5.1%YoY) in March’25 which is highest decline since recent history. This decrease is primarily due to decline in prices of wheat flour (down 35%), wheat (down 35%), onions (down 71%), fresh vegetables (down 32%) and tomatoes (down 54%).
  • On a MoM basis, inflation increased by 0.9%MoM primarily driven by food index (up 1.9%MoM) and slight decline in housing index (down 0.1%MoM) mainly due to decline in electricity charges (down 1.3%MoM). The uptick in inflation was largely attributed to the Ramzan effect.
Economy: Reciprocal Tariffs of US Impact on Pakistan and Listed Cos - By Topline Research

Apr 3 2025


Topline Securities


  • The United States of America (USA) has imposed reciprocal tariffs on its trading partners including Pakistan, aiming to boost domestic manufacturing by making foreign imports expensive and to raise revenue.
  • The reciprocal duties ranges from 10-48%, which reportedly is in addition to universal tariff of 10% on all countries.
  • The reciprocal duties are imposed with the exception of Mexico and Canada as these countries were subject to previously announced tariffs of 10-25%. While certain goods from key industries i.e. steel, aluminum, automobiles, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber - are also exempt from these rates.
Economy: Mar-2025: 4% MoM gain led by IMF’s positive feedback - By JS Research

Apr 3 2025


JS Global Capital


  • KSE-100 posted monthly gain of 4% or 4.55k points for the month of March, after seeing negative returns for the first two months of CY25. This was primarily led by the positive outcome of IMF’s review. KSE-100 also hit all time high of 118.7k points but didn’t manage to sustain due to weaker trading activity reflecting the Ramadan affect. ADTO was down 29% MoM in terms of shares traded, where mutual funds (Net Outflow: US$295mn) and foreigners (Net Outflow: US$12mn) were net sellers during the month while banks were net buyers.
  • We witnessed interest in Energy stocks during the month on back of expectation of IMF approval for government's proposal to address the outstanding circular debt. Resultantly, Energy sector stocks mainly PSO, SNGP, PPL and OGDC reported MoM gains of 29%, 19%, 12%, 10% respectively from their lows seen during the month.
  • IMF staff and Pakistani authorities reached an SLA on the first review under Pakistan’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and a new 28-month Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangement with total access of US$1.3bn (SDR 1bn). Pakistan is now expected to receive US$2.3bn including immediate disbursement of US$1bn under the 2nd tranche of EFF by early-May subsequent to IMF board approval meanwhile IMF team is also due in May to review the FY26 Budget. IMF mission highlighted Pakistan efforts towards achieving macroeconomic stability and fiscal reforms aims at maintaining tight monetary policy to keep medium term inflation within 5%-7%, achieving primary surplus target of 1% of GDP, continuing energy sector reforms to reduce circular debt (integration of CPPs to the grid and power tariffs adjustment) and implementation of climate reforms in order to comply with the RSF (including introduction of carbon levy, water pricing).
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation to continue - By JS Research

Apr 3 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile session to close at 117,807, up 34 points DoD. Volumes stood low at 330mn shares compared to 357mn shares traded in the previous session. The current pattern suggests further consolidation ahead. Meanwhile, a fall below 117,551 (Thursday’s low) will extend the decline towards the 30-DMA currently at 114,731 level. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 118,120-118,440 where a break above potentially targeting 120,937 and 122,299 levels, respectively. We advise investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance levels are at 117,523 and 118,119, respectively.
Morning News: IMF’s RSF; Pakistan to get $1.3bn in tranches - By Vector Research

Apr 3 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Director of Communications Julie Kozack said Pakistan will receive $1.3 billion under Resilience and Sustainable Facility (RSF) in tranches over 28 months. Speaking at a press conference, Kozack said that for the RSF over the length of the arrangement, subject to approval by the IMF’s Executive Board, the staff-level agreement references an amount of $1.3 billion and that access will be over the life of the RSF, delivered in tranches.
  • Azerbaijan has offered over $1 billion loan in cash deposit in response to Pakistan's request for funding the $1.2 billion Sukkur-Hyderabad motorway amid a disagreement among various government departments over the mode of lending.
  • Remittances are expected to cross a record high of $3.5 billion in March, rising 15 per cent month-on-month, driven largely by inflows during Ramazan, according to financial experts and currency dealer.
Morning News: IMF’s RSF; Pakistan to get $1.3bn in tranches - By WE Research

Apr 3 2025



  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that Pakistan will receive $1.3 billion under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) in tranches over 28 months, subject to approval by the IMF's Executive Board. This follows a staff-level agreement reached on March 25, 2025, after the first review of Pakistan's 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF), which was approved in September 2024 for $7 billion. The RSF disbursements, which are spread over the duration of the arrangement, will be provided alongside a $1 billion disbursement from the EFF once the Executive Board approves the first review.
  • Azerbaijan has offered over $1 billion in cash deposits to Pakistan to fund the construction of the $1.2 billion Sukkur-Hyderabad motorway, following a request from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif during his recent visit. The proposal includes two options: Azerbaijan’s State Oil Fund placing a term cash deposit with Pakistan’s State Bank, which would then lend the money to the National Highway Authority (NHA), or Azerbaijan, in collaboration with the Islamic Development Bank, directly funding the project. Pakistan has also sought financing for the Hyderabad-Karachi motorway (M-9), estimated to cost $600 million. Despite this offer, there is a lack of consensus among Pakistani government departments, with the Finance Ministry opposing the cash deposit route. The NHA is exploring options, including public-private partnerships, to move forward with the projects, but delays are expected due to limited fiscal space. This comes amid ongoing efforts to secure foreign investments and address Pakistan's infrastructure needs while grappling with political and economic instability.
  • The federal government has announced a reduction in the price of petrol by Rs1 per litre, effective from March 29, lowering the price to Rs254.63 from Rs255.63. However, the price of High-Speed Diesel remains unchanged at Rs258.64 per litre. The price adjustments, recommended by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), were made based on fluctuations in international market rates, with the aim of providing relief to consumers.
Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Inflation Preview - By AHCML Research

Mar 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation for Mar’25 is likely to come in at 0.72% YoY, compared to 1.52% YoY in Feb’25 and 20.68% YoY in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to clock in at 0.9% MoM, driven by an increase in food and clothing, which is expected to fuel inflation in Mar’25. The high base effect still exists and may persist until Apr’25.
  • The increase in monthly inflation is expected due to rising prices of Fresh Fruits, Tomatoes, Chicken and Sugar, which are anticipated to increase during the month.
  • Going forward, the decline in agricultural and industrial output, along with water shortages, is expected to put pressure on imports, subsequently fueling inflation. Additionally, the higher base remains a significant factor; however, it ends in April’25. Stability in the PKR, along with any decline in energy-related commodity prices, could help slow the pace of inflation.
Economy: Pakistan’s Current Account Cumulative surplus overshadows the monthly deficit - By AHCML Research

Mar 18 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Pakistan’s current account balance recorded a deficit of USD 12mn in Feb’25 compared to deficit of USD 399mn in Jan’25. Moreover, CA balance was in surplus of USD 71mn in Feb’24.
  • Exports of goods reduced by 13% MoM to USD 2,593mn in Feb’25, similarly, imports reduced by 8% MoM to USD 5,023mn, resulting in a trade deficit of USD 2,430mn, down by a 1% MoM.
  • Exports of services grew by a meagre 2% MoM, reaching USD 709mn, while imports of services reduced by 1% MoM to USD 1,013mn, reducing the deficit on balance of services to USD 304mn.
Economy: SBP Keeps Benchmark Rate at 12%, Balancing Growth and External Account Stability - By AHCML Research

Mar 11 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 12% in the current monetary policy review. This decision reflects a careful balance in response to evolving economic conditions, particularly in light of inflation, external sector challenges, and growing signs of economic recovery.
  • The SBP’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) explained that inflation in February 2025 came in lower than anticipated, largely due to a drop in both food and energy prices. However, the Committee cautioned that while inflation has eased, there are still risks related to the volatility in these prices. Core inflation, in particular, remains stubbornly high, which means any rebound in food and energy prices could reverse the current downward trend in overall inflation.
  • Despite the inflation concerns, economic activity has picked up, as seen in indicators like automobile sales, cement consumption, and the growth in private sector credit.
Cement: Results review 2QFY25: PAT up by 54% YoY - By AHCML Research

Mar 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The 2QFY25 financial results of 15 listed cement companies reflected strong growth in profitability, driven by higher dispatches, improved margins, and lower finance costs. The sector reported a cumulative PAT of PKR 34,749 million, up 54% YoY and 46% QoQ.
  • Net sales stood at PKR 196,657 million, up 21% QoQ and 2% YoY, driven by a 23% QoQ increase in total dispatches.
  • Gross margins recorded at 33%, up 3ppt QoQ and 5ppt YoY, primarily due to reduction in international coal prices.
Economy: Monetary Policy: 50-100bps Cut Expected to Stimulate Growth Policy Rate - By AHCML Research

Mar 6 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to announce its policy decision on March 10, 2025. A further 50-100bps cut is expected, bringing the policy rate to 11.5%-11.0%, seems likely as the central bank seeks to sustain economic momentum. The SBP is expected to take a cautious approach, mindful of the impact of its sharp rate cuts, from 22% to 12%, driven by slowing inflation and increased stability in the PKR and foreign exchange reserves. Inflation, a key factor, has dropped sharply to 1.5%YoY in Feb’25, mainly due to high base effect and lower food prices. At the same time, PKR has strengthened against USD, driven by optimism over a successful IMF deal and the expected release of a USD1bn tranche, which will help boost foreign exchange reserves.
  • Lower global oil prices, supported by higher U.S. production/stocks and the resolution of the RussiaUkraine conflict can reduce Pakistan’s energy costs and narrow the trade deficit.
  • Seasonal remittance inflows around Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr are expected to provide some support to the current account, which posted a USD682mn surplus in 7MFY25, a significant recovery from last year’s USD1.8bn deficit. However, the monthly current account remains unpredictable, swinging from a USD474mn surplus in Dec’24 to a USD420mn deficit in Jan’25.
Oil Marketing Companies: Exploration Sector Performance 2QFY25 -- By AHCML Research

Mar 5 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The exploration sector revealed a mixed performance during 2QFY25, companies has posted net sales and PAT of ~PKR 217.32bn and ~PKR 87.51bn in 2QFY25, down by 13.23% YoY and 37.33% YoY, respectively. major companies include OGDC, PPL, POL, and MARI.
  • The companies’ profitability was negatively impacted by lower realized prices, forced curtailment by SNGPL and UPL and absence of tax rebate which was in SPLY.
  • As the negative price variance stems from the PKR appreciation against the USD, averaging PKR 278/USD in 2QFY25 versus PKR 287/USD in the corresponding period, alongside a decline in global crude oil prices, which fell from USD 87/bbl to USD 76/bbl over the same timeframe.
Pakistan Banks: Performance CY’24: Rate cut Headwinds Hindered the Headings - By AHCML Research

Mar 3 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The combined profit after tax of the top five banks—HBL, UBL, NBP, MCB, and ABL— deteriorated by 5.5%YoY to PKR82bn in 4QCY24, compared to PKR87bn in 4QCY23.
  • In 2024, Pakistan’s banking sector demonstrated remarkable resilience, reaching historic milestones despite facing economic headwinds. UBL stood firm, delivering an impressive profit after tax (PAT) of PKR 75.78 billion, a testament to its strength in a challenging year. However, the journey wasn’t without hurdles—banks had to contend with a sharp 1,000 basis points cut in the policy rate, which put pressure on net interest margins and profitability.
  • In CY’24, Net Interest Income (NII) declined by approximately 6.6%YoY albeit witnessed an uptick of 15% on QoQ basis. The drop was primarily driven by the cuts in the policy rate and declining yields on investment assets. However, banks strategically shifted their focus to nonfunded income sources, which showed a 48% increase in 4QCY’24 compared to the same period last year (SPLY), a notable 68% rise on quarterly basis, and a 61.6%YoY growth in CY’24.
Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC): Result Preview 2QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Feb 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • PIOC is anticipated to declare a profit after tax of PKR 1,487mn (EPS: PKR 6.55) in 2QFY25, reflecting a gain of 45% QoQ.
  • During the quarter, sales are expected to reach PKR 9,453mn, indicating an increase of 19.79% QoQ.
  • We estimate gross margins at 30.46%, representing a decrease of 4.07ppt YoY.
Economy: CPI for Feb’25 to clock in at 2.1% YoY - By AHCML Research

Feb 25 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation for Feb’25 is likely to come in at 2.1% YoY, compared to 2.4% YoY in Jan’25 and 23.1% YoY in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to ease by 0.3% MoM, driven by a decline in the food and housing & water index, which is expected to slow the pace of inflation in Feb’25.
  • The decline in monthly inflation is expected due to falling prices of tomatoes, onions, potatoes, and wheat, which are anticipated to decrease during the month.
  • Going forward, the decline in LSM production in the country driven by fragile demand and higher input costs—is expected to further fuel inflation. Additionally, the higher base remains a significant factor in keeping inflation on the lower side. Any changes in energy-related commodities could also impact the inflation trend.
Cherat Cement Company Limited (CHCC): Result Preview 2QFY25 - By AHCML Research

Feb 20 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • CHCC is anticipated to declare a profit after tax of PKR 2,107mn (EPS: PKR 10.84) in 2QFY25, reflecting a decline of 27% QoQ
  • During the quarter, sales are expected to reach PKR 10,193mn, indicating an increase of 6% QoQ.
  • We estimate gross margins at 34%, representing a decrease of 6.1ppt QoQ and 0.7ppt YoY
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