Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Inflation Preview - By AHCML Research
Mar 26 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Inflation for Mar’25 is likely to come in at 0.72% YoY, compared to 1.52% YoY in Feb’25 and 20.68% YoY in the same period
last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to clock in at 0.9% MoM, driven by an increase in food and clothing, which is
expected to fuel inflation in Mar’25. The high base effect still exists and may persist until Apr’25.
The increase in monthly inflation is expected due to rising prices of Fresh Fruits, Tomatoes, Chicken and Sugar, which are
anticipated to increase during the month.
Going forward, the decline in agricultural and industrial output, along with water shortages, is expected to put pressure on
imports, subsequently fueling inflation. Additionally, the higher base remains a significant factor; however, it ends in April’25.
Stability in the PKR, along with any decline in energy-related commodity prices, could help slow the pace of inflation.
Pakistan Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Inflation Preview - By AHCML Research
Jun 30 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Inflation for Jun’25 is likely to come in at 3.47% YoY, compared to same 3.46% YoY in May’25 and 12.6% YoY in the same
period last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to clock in at 0.46% MoM, Headline inflation for Jun’25 is expected to
increase, primarily driven by a sharp increase in food prices, which make up 35% of the CPI basket. Food inflation is projected
at 3.6%YoY due to significant increase in key items: Spices (88% YoY), Milk (36%), rice 37%), meat (20%), and cooking oil
(16%). On a MoM basis, the food index is expected to increase by 0.6%, led by higher prices for tomatoes, eggs, and chicken.
The ongoing reforms in the energy sector as increase in the gas and power tariff expected to increase inflation going forward.
For the FY25, average inflation is forecasted to range between 4.5% YoY, compared to 23.4% YoY in FY24.
Pakistan Economy: Jun’25 NCPI to arrive at 3.4%YoY/0.4%MoM - By Taurus Research
Jun 24 2025
Taurus Securities
We expect headline inflation for the month of Jun’25 to clock-in at
3.4%YoY owing to the base effect primarily, along with the sequential increase in food inflation and elevated core inflation.
Hence, average inflation for FY25 is expected to touch-down at
4.7%YoY (down 19.3ppts over FY24).
During the month, we anticipate food prices to drive the general
price level on the back of significant surge in prices of vegetables
like Potatoes (up 20%MoM), Onions (up 8%MoM) & Tomatoes
(up 30%MoM), mainly. This is expected to be offset by ~17%
MoM fall in the price of Chicken (possibly due to lower consumption because of Eid) and stagnant or muted increase in the
prices of other food items for the month.
However, Chicken prices are likely to increase in the coming
months as the Government has proposed to impose a PKR 10
FED on one-day old chicks, as part of the Budget FY26.
Pakistan Economy: May’25 NCPI clocked-in at 3.5%YoY/-0.2%MoM - By Taurus Research
Jun 3 2025
Taurus Securities
Headline inflation for the month of May’25 picked-up as anticipated due to the low base effect mainly, to clock-in at 3.5%YoY/-
0.2%MoM. Consequently, FYTD NCPI stands at 4.7%YoY. Accordingly, inflation in both Urban and Rural areas arrived in at
3.5%YoY and 3.4%YoY, respectively.
Nevertheless, MoM inflation dipped on account of slight decrease in food prices; ~1.2%MoM decline in utility prices due to
adjustment in electricity charges; muted impact of fuel prices;
and continued slowdown in core inflation. To note, core inflation
in Urban areas stood at 7.3%YoY, down 0.4%MoM and in Rural
areas it was recorded at 8.8%YoY, down 0.4%MoM, respectively.
In food category, excluding Eggs (up ~24.3%MoM), a broadbased drop was witnessed including substantial fall in prices of
Onions & Tomatoes. Conversely, core segments like Clothing &
Footwear , Furniture & Household Equipment, Restaurant & Hotels and the Miscellaneous showcased resilience. Additionally,
SPI inflation on a YoY basis fell 0.6% in May’25. However, WPI
inflation on a YoY basis was up 0.4% in May’25.
Pakistan Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) - By AHCML Research
May 26 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Inflation in May’25 is expected to clock in at 3.0% YoY, up from 0.3% in Apr’25 and down from 11.8% in May’24, as base
effects continue to fade. On a monthly basis, CPI is likely to decline by 0.6% MoM, posting the second consecutive drop,
mainly due to a 2.3% fall in food prices amid improved supply of perishables. However, poultry shortages are expected to
push egg and chicken prices up by 32.8% and 20.7% MoM, respectively.
The transport index is expected to decline by 0.7% MoM due to lower fuel prices, while the clothing and footwear index is
projected to rise by 1.2% MoM.
On a YoY basis, food inflation is anticipated to ease to 0.9%, but non-food inflation is likely to remain elevated, led by
healthcare (+12.5%), education (+10.4%), clothing (+9.9%), and restaurants (+8.4%).
Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Inflation Preview - By AHCML Research
Mar 26 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Inflation for Mar’25 is likely to come in at 0.72% YoY, compared to 1.52% YoY in Feb’25 and 20.68% YoY in the same period
last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to clock in at 0.9% MoM, driven by an increase in food and clothing, which is
expected to fuel inflation in Mar’25. The high base effect still exists and may persist until Apr’25.
The increase in monthly inflation is expected due to rising prices of Fresh Fruits, Tomatoes, Chicken and Sugar, which are
anticipated to increase during the month.
Going forward, the decline in agricultural and industrial output, along with water shortages, is expected to put pressure on
imports, subsequently fueling inflation. Additionally, the higher base remains a significant factor; however, it ends in April’25.
Stability in the PKR, along with any decline in energy-related commodity prices, could help slow the pace of inflation.
Pakistan Economy: Feb’25 NCPI clocks-in at 1.5%YoY/-0.8%MoM - By Taurus Research
Mar 4 2025
Taurus Securities
Headline inflation for Feb’25 clocks-in at 1.5%YoY/-0.8%MoM,
lowest in a decade, taking the FYTD NCPI to under 6%YoY.
Hence, the real-interest rate has also risen to 10.5%.Wherein, 2.7%
MoM drop in the food index (35% weight) was the major contributor to the lower NCPI readings, along with stable core inflation.
In geographical terms, CPI for Feb’25 was recorded at 1.81%YoY
and 1.1%YoY in Urban and Rural areas, respectively. However,
core inflation remained largely unchanged on a MoM basis, arriving at 7.8% in Urban and 10.4% in Rural areas. Nevertheless, the
decline in food prices was mainly driven by a sharp fall in prices
of Wheat, Wheat Flour, Vegetables like Onions, Tomatoes etc.,
Eggs, certain pulses and Tea. Utilities was down 0.3%MoM.
SPI was recorded at 30.4%YoY, along with WPI at 18.7%YoY.
Economy: Feb-25 NCPI expected at 1.8% YoY - By Alpha - Akseer Research
Feb 20 2025
Alpha Capital
The headline CPI is expected to arrive at 1.8% YoY in Feb-24, continuing the declining
inflation trend, following a reading of 2.4% YoY in Jan-24. We expect average
inflation of 5.2% YoY for FY25 with a run rate of 0.6% MoM. The base effect continues
to contribute to the declining inflation trend, bringing the print down to the lowest
in two decades. MoM inflation is expected to decrease by 0.6% MoM for the first time
since May-24, primarily due to the Food segment (down by 2.4% MoM) and a
negative Fuel Charge Adjustment (FCA), reducing the average electricity tarrif. The
Transport segment is expected to exhibit an increasing trend (up by 1.1% MoM)
owing to the rising POL prices.
The Food segment is expected to decline by 2.4% MoM in Feb-25. Items driving the
reduction in prices include: tomatoes (-54.6% MoM), onions (-27.4% MoM) and potatoes (-
20.8% MoM). Additionally, wheat prices are expected to reduce by 2.3% MoM due to
abolishment of wheat support price, as per the agreement with the IMF.
The Utilities segment is expected to stay flattish (up by 0.1% MoM) on the back of a negative
FCA of PKR 1.23/kwh for Dec-24, which is expected to reduce average electricity tariff for
consumers in Feb-24.
Economy: Jan’25 NCPI arrives at 2.4%YoY/0.2%MoM - By Taurus Research
Feb 3 2025
Taurus Securities
Headline inflation for Jan’25 clocks-in at 2.4%YoY/0.2%MoM,
lowest in over nine years, matching broad expectations—taking
the average NCPI for FYTD to 6.6%YoY. Wherein, 0.6%MoM
drop in the food index (35% weight) was the major contributor to
the lower NCPI readings, supported by falling core inflation.
On a geographic basis, NCPI in Urban areas clocked-in at 2.72%
YoY (4.4%YoY last month); and ~2%YoY in Rural areas (3.6%YoY
last month), respectively. Accordingly, core inflation stood at
7.8%YoY and 10.4%YoY in Urban and Rural areas, respectively.
Meanwhile, Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the month was recorded at 0.7%YoY as against 4.2%YoY in Dec’24. Further, WPI
decreased to 0.6%YoY as against 1.9%YoY in Dec’24.
Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) - By AHCML Research
Jan 23 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Inflation for Jan’25 is likely to arrive at 2.6%YoY versus 4.1%YoY in Dec’24, and 28.3%YoY same period last
year. On monthly basis, CPI is expected to increase by 0.4%MoM as increase in Restaurants/Hotels, House,
transport and Clothing to derive the inflation pace Jan’25.
The rise in monthly inflation is expected due to the mounting prices of Chicken, Pulse Moong, Sugar and
Firewood however, prices of Potatoes, Tomatoes, and Eggs expected to decline during the month.
Going forward, the decline in crop production in the country, driven by the end of support prices for wheat
and cotton, is expected to further fuel food inflation. Additionally, the higher base remains a significant
factor in keeping inflation on the lower side. Any changes in energy-related commodities could also impact
the inflation trend.
Economy: Dec-24 NCPI expected at 4.3% YoY, lowest since Apr-18 – By Alpha - Akseer Research
Dec 27 2024
Alpha Capital
The headline CPI is expected to arrive at 4.3% YoY in
Dec-24, continuing the declining inflation trend, following a reading of 4.9%
YoY in Nov-24. This is expected to take 1HFY25 average inflation to 7.3% YoY.
MoM inflation is expected to remain flattish, up by 0.3% MoM, primarily on the
back of (i) a muted trend in the Food segment, (ii) a -1.1% MoM decrease in
utilities segment due to a reduction in electricity charges, and (iii) a 0.7%
MoM increase in Transport segment due to a rise in POL prices.
The Food segment is expected to stay flat with a slight
increase of 0.2% MoM in Dec-24, indicating winter effect on perishable food
items. Within this category, items driving the reduction in prices include:
wheat flour (-2% MoM), chicken (-13% MoM), and tomatoes (-14% MoM).
Electricity tariff for Dec-24 depicts the continuation of a
downward trend due to (i) a negative FCA of PKR 1.145/kwh, (ii) an updated QTA
of PKR 0.196/kwh, and (iii) the introduction of Winter Demand Initiative (WDI)
offering a discount on incremental consumption to domestic consumers (using
above 200 units). Cumulatively, we expect these developments to reduce
electricity charges by 5.9% MoM in Dec-24 and, consequently, a 1.1% MoM fall in
the Utilities segment in the NCPI print.
Textiles: Pause-period for US tariffs ending today - By JS Research
Jul 8 2025
JS Global Capital
The 90-day pause period for the implementation of reciprocal tariffs expires today. Meanwhile, US govt plans to issue letters
to all countries which have not struck a deal yet and are likely to face higher than previously announced tariffs effective 1st
August, 2025.
Countries having completed successful round of bilateral trade agreements including Pakistan, are expected to face a lower
tariff, however, a minimum baseline tariff of 10% is likely to remain. A formal notification of the same is likely to be announced
along with other trading partners with negotiated contracts.
With softening of US stance towards Pakistan since the cease-fire between India and Pakistan and a potential successful
round of dialogues between the two, optimism towards Pak Textile sector has gained strength, with an upside of 38% from
its low seen in May-2025 and 21% from the pre-tariff announcement levels.
Cement: Capacity Utilization at Record Low, Huge Growth Potential - By Sherman Research
Jul 8 2025
Sherman Securities
Currently, cement sector is running on historical low utilization level of 55%
versus last 30-year average utilization of 76%. The main reason for this significant
decline is that although capacity has increased sharply, demand has remained
subdued over the past few years. To note, cement capacity in Pakistan has
increased to 84.6mn tons as compared to 9mn tons in FY92, (up 9x) during the
years.
Historically, we have observed that capacity expansions have only been
undertaken when utilization surpasses 80%, therefore, we do not expect any
capacity expansion in the near term. Furthermore, the pause in expansion is
expected to enhance the liquidity of companies, which could enable them to
increase their payout going forward.
During FY25, local dispatches arrived at 37mn tons compared to 38.2mn tons
during FY24. Thus, during last 4 years, cement sales posted consistent decline on
annualized basis reaching at 8 – year low level in FY25.
Morning News: Reserves up: SBP eyes global bond market - By Next Research
Jul 8 2025
Next Capital
According to the central bank,
reserves reached $14.5 billion by the end of June, surpassing the IMF’s target of
$13.9 billion and exceeding even the Governor’s own projections. The hard work
is paying off. SBP has been persistent in buying dollars from the interbank market,
and now, finally, the international commercial financing channel has reopened.
The next move is to tap into the international bond market — starting with the
Panda bond, followed by a Eurobond issuance.
In a significant
economic achievement, the government of Pakistan has demonstrated its firm
commitment to fiscal discipline and long-term stability by retiring Rs 1.5 trillion in
public debt ahead of schedule in FY25. This substantial early repayment has
contributed to a notable improvement in Pakistan’s fiscal indicators, bringing the
debt-to-GDP ratio down from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25.
The government
has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank ahead of its scheduled
maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a
senior finance official said on Monday.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside likely - By JS Research
Jul 8 2025
JS Global Capital
The KSE-100 index witnessed a positive session to close at 133,370, up 1,421 points
DoD. Volumes stood at 920mn shares compared to 733mn shares traded in the previous
session. The index is likely to retest yesterday’s high of 133,862; a break above this level
could target 135,232, with potential to rise further towards 137,549 level. Meanwhile, any
downside will be tested between 132,460 and 132,610 levels, respectively. The RSI and
MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on
dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. The support and resistance are placed at 132,604
and 133,999, respectively.
Morning News: SBP governor speaks of policy mix: - By HMFS Research
Jul 8 2025
HMFS Research
Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Jameel Ahmad has said that unlike
in the previous episodes of boom-bust cycles, the current policy mix
remains conducive to a lasting increase in economic activity rather than a
short-sighted, fragile, and populist ‘sugar rush’. Governor SBP also assured
that SBP is fully committed to undertake structural reforms and lay the
foundation for sustainable and inclusive economic growth. Both SBP and
the government remain steadfast in their approach to transitioning from
recently hard-earned economic stability to a medium-term economic
transformation. This resolve is reflected in our prudent and cautious
monetary policy stance, and fundamentals aligned exchange rate, and
ongoing fiscal consolidation and improving debt dynamics.
The government has repaid a debt of Rs500 billion to the central bank
ahead of its scheduled maturity in 2029, resulting in an early retirement of
Rs1.5 trillion in public debt, a senior finance official said. Pakistan’s debtto-GDP ratio decreased from 75 percent in FY23 to 69 percent in FY25 due
to early debt repayments. The successful buyback of Rs1 trillion in market
debt, completed by December 2024, marked the first such operation in
Pakistan’s history. Alongside this, the early repayment of the SBP Rs500
billion debt has collectively led to the early retirement of Rs1.5 trillion in
public debt during FY25, said Khurram Schehzad, an advisor to the finance
minister. The early retirement of central bank debt, executed by the Debt
Management Office (DMO), marks a breakthrough in Pakistan’s debt
management strategy. Early debt retirement while converting shorter tenure with longer-tenure debt significantly reduces concentration risk,
lowers future liabilities, and strengthens the country’s macroeconomic
foundations by curbing reliance on borrowings.
The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has notified businesses, including
importers, suppliers, and manufacturers, of tightened restrictions under
Section 21 of the Income Tax Ordinance for FY26, aimed at discouraging
excessive cash dealings and broadening the tax net. Under the directive,
any cash transaction exceeding PKR 200,000 will not be treated as an
allowable business expense. Consequently: 50% of such expenditure will
be recognized for tax purposes. The disallowed portion will attract an
additional tax burden, effectively raising the cost by 20.5%.For completely
disallowed transactions, the effective impact could surge to 79.5%.
Businesses are urged to ensure all supplier and client payments are
processed through proper banking channels to avoid heavy penalties and
additional scrutiny by FBR
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day July 7, 2025 - By JS Research
Jul 7 2025
JS Global Capital
The KSE-100 Index surged 1.4% to
an all-time intraday high of
133,862.01, driven by optimism
over trade negotiations,
macroeconomic stability, and a
strong corporate earnings outlook.
Falling inflation, strengthening FX
reserves, and capital inflows are
enhancing investor confidence,
while higher taxes on alternative
assets are redirecting capital into
equities. With earnings season
ahead and technical indicators
breaking new ground, we expect the
bullish momentum to persist in the
near term, supported by favorable
macro trends and reallocation from
fixed-income instruments.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Carries KSE-100 Beyond 133,000 - By HMFS Research
Jul 7 2025
HMFS Research
The market continued its unrelenting bullish streak, surging past the 133,862
mark for the first time in history. This milestone rally was fueled by renewed
investor confidence, driven by key trade developments and sector-specific
momentum. Investor sentiment received a notable boost as Pakistan and the
U.S. concluded a critical round of trade talks ahead of the July 9 deadline.
While an official announcement is still awaited, early signs point to a favorable
deal for Pakistan’s export sectors. Adding to the positive momentum, OGDC
reported a production uplift following the successful installation of an ESP at
Rajian-05, where it holds full ownership—further reinforcing its operational
strength. The rally was led by the banking and fertilizer sectors, supported by
expectations of strong upcoming results and favorable sectoral tailwinds. The
KSE-100 index closed at 133,370 level, up 1,421 points in a robust session.
Market activity remained upbeat, with 344 million shares traded on the KSE100 and total market volume reaching 915 million shares. Volume leaders
included IMAGE (48mn), BOP (43mn), and WTL (37mn). While a short-term
breather cannot be ruled out given the sharp upward trajectory, overall
sentiment is expected to remain strong amid continued macroeconomic
improvement. Investors are advised to stay focused on fundamentally sound
stocks with long-term value.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC enhances production at Rajian-05 well - By AKD Research
Jul 7 2025
AKD Securities
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has enhanced production in Rajian-05
through installation of electrical submersible pumps (ESP). Following the workover, production has increased to 3.1kbpd of oil and 1.0mmcfd of gas, compared to 1.1k
bpd/0.5mmcfd of oil/gas during 3QFY25. Notably, OGDC is the wholly-owned operator of
the Rajian heavy oil field, where several workovers and artificial lift systems have been
implemented at previous wells to expedite revival. We anticipate the aforementioned
development to have an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR1.3 per sh for OGDC, respectively.
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research
Jul 7 2025
AKD Securities
The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY
compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP:
PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research
Jul 7 2025
JS Global Capital
We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd
(INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM,
reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative
budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units,
supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Economy: Pakistan Investment Strategy 2HCY25 - By AHCML Research
Jul 1 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Pakistan's economy is on track for sustained recovery, with GDP growth projected at 2.68% in FY25 and 4.2% in FY26. Pakistan’s economy is expected to recover modestly in
FY25, with services growing 2.9% YoY, supported by commodity sectors. Industrial growth is forecasted at 3.2% YoY, driven by LSM recovery, though energy-related challenges
pose risks. Agriculture is set to grow 1.8% YoY, led by livestock and forestry despite a decline in major crops. A shift to renewable energy is expected to cut costs and ensure
stable power supply, boosting efficiency.
This growth is supported by lower interest rates backed by lower inflation and a stable PKR. Inflation is expected to moderate to 6% YoY in FY26, aided by improving supply of
food related commodities, stability in PKR and completion of major energy tariff adjustments.
The IMF agreement has boosted investor confidence, while a clear roadmap for debt management, FDI commitments from friendly countries, and ambitious privatization
efforts signal an economic turnaround. High-impact projects like Reko Diq and energy sector reforms under the SIFC enhance Pakistan's appeal as an investment destination,
creating opportunities for investors to leverage these developments at the PSX.
Pakistan Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Inflation Preview - By AHCML Research
Jun 30 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Inflation for Jun’25 is likely to come in at 3.47% YoY, compared to same 3.46% YoY in May’25 and 12.6% YoY in the same
period last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to clock in at 0.46% MoM, Headline inflation for Jun’25 is expected to
increase, primarily driven by a sharp increase in food prices, which make up 35% of the CPI basket. Food inflation is projected
at 3.6%YoY due to significant increase in key items: Spices (88% YoY), Milk (36%), rice 37%), meat (20%), and cooking oil
(16%). On a MoM basis, the food index is expected to increase by 0.6%, led by higher prices for tomatoes, eggs, and chicken.
The ongoing reforms in the energy sector as increase in the gas and power tariff expected to increase inflation going forward.
For the FY25, average inflation is forecasted to range between 4.5% YoY, compared to 23.4% YoY in FY24.
Oil & Gas Marketing Companies: Gas Tariff Hike: Positive for Gas Utilities, Negative for Industry - By AHCML Research
Jun 30 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) has approved a significant gas tariff hike across all
consumer categories effective July 1, 2025. The revised structure includes increase in fixed
monthly charges, PKR600 for protected households, PKR1,500 for non-protected users, and
PKR3,000 for high-usage domestic consumers. The adjustment is part of broader IMF-led reforms
to improve cost recovery, reduce subsidies, and contain circular debt in the energy sector.
The gas tariff hike is a structurally positive development for SSGC, SNGP, PPL, PSO, and OGDC, it
poses near-term risks for industrial players. The policy supports energy sector sustainability and
aligns with macroeconomic reform goals but warrants caution in sectors exposed to high gas
input costs. Investors may consider overweighting gas utilities and upstream names while
remaining selective in industrial exposure.
Economy: Pakistan-US Trade Talks Near Conclusion: Major Breakthrough on Tariffs Expected Next Week - By AHCML Research
Jun 26 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Pakistan and the United States are set to conclude trade negotiations next week, aiming to address reciprocal
tariffs and strengthen bilateral economic ties. The talks, led by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb and US
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, reflect a strategic push to reset relations amid evolving global alignments. A
key focus is easing the 29% US tariff on Pakistani exports, imposed under former President Trump, as Pakistan
posted a USD3 billion trade surplus with the US in 2024.To rebalance trade and attract US goodwill, Pakistan has
offered to increase imports of American goods, including crude oil, and provide investment incentives, particularly
in the mining sector.
A joint webinar this week showcased Pakistan’s USD7 billion Reko Diq copper-gold project, drawing interest from
US investors and officials. The US Export-Import Bank is currently evaluating financing proposals worth USD500mn
to USD1 billion for the project.
As the U.S. maintains high tariffs on key textile-exporting countries like China, Vietnam, and Cambodia, Pakistan
faces relatively moderate tariffs, higher than Egypt and Turkey, but far more favorable than many others. This
creates a strategic opening for Pakistan to increase its market share in the U.S., particularly in high-demand
categories where it already has a foothold. These include cotton trousers, knit shirts, denim, towels, bed linen, and
curtains.
Morning News: PM, Chinese envoy discuss CPEC projects - By AHCML Research
Jun 25 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Tuesday reiterated Pakistan’s
commitment to China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), describing
it as a flagship project of the longstanding strategic partnership
between Islamabad and Beijing.
Farmers across Punjab have increasingly transitioned their
agricultural tube-wells to solar energy in response to rising input
costs driven by expensive electricity and diesel.
Banks and Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) have surrendered
their unclaimed deposits up to December 31, 2023 to the State Bank
of Pakistan. Claimants can apply for refund of their claims.
Morning News: Trump announces Israel-Iran ceasefire - By AHCML Research
Jun 24 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that a “complete and
total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran will go into force with a view
to ending the conflict between the two nations.
ST, duty exemptions on imported cotton, yarn being withdrawn,
Aurangzeb tells NA: Govt taking steps to support cotton farmers,
industry.
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb informed the National
Assembly on Monday that the government has decided to withdraw
sales tax and duty exemptions on imported cotton and yarn to
support local cotton farmers and revive the domestic textile industry.
Oil Marketing Companies: Rising Oil Price impacts Import Bill Impact of Oil prices on Import Bill - By AHCML Research
Jun 13 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
With Israel’s military strike on Iran pushing Arab Light crude above USD 69/bbl as of June 13, 2025, Pakistan’s
vulnerability to oil price shocks has intensified. In 10MFY25, the country imported USD 12.8 billion worth of
petroleum products, up 3% YoY from the same period last year. Historically, for every USD 5 increase in oil prices,
Pakistan’s import bill rises by approximately USD800mn- 1,000mn per year. If the conflict prolongs, the elevated oil
prices could significantly strain the country’s trade balance and fiscal outlook.
Pakistan’s external sector may soon face renewed pressure, as higher global oil and LNG prices directly impact the
current account (CA). While the CA posted a USD 1.9 billion surplus in 10MFY25, this buffer could erode quickly if
oil costs remain elevated. A deterioration into deficit territory could require additional financing from multilateral
institutions, Saudi oil credit facilities, or bilateral loans. This may also complicate ongoing negotiations with the
IMF, potentially diverting crucial funds away from development projects toward essential commodity imports.
Pakistan Economy: Pakistan Economic Survey FY25 Highlights - By AHCML Research
Jun 10 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
GDP Growth: 2.68% in FY25 (FY24: 2.51%), driven by industrial (4.77%) and services (2.91%)
sectors.
Inflation: Sharply fell to 0.3% in Apr’25 due to monetary tightening, stable food supplies, and
lower global commodity prices.
Fiscal Discipline: Primary surplus of 3.0% of GDP (FY24: 1.5%) and first fiscal surplus in 24 years
(Q1 FY25: PKR 1.896 tn).
Pakistan Economy: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) - By AHCML Research
May 26 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
Inflation in May’25 is expected to clock in at 3.0% YoY, up from 0.3% in Apr’25 and down from 11.8% in May’24, as base
effects continue to fade. On a monthly basis, CPI is likely to decline by 0.6% MoM, posting the second consecutive drop,
mainly due to a 2.3% fall in food prices amid improved supply of perishables. However, poultry shortages are expected to
push egg and chicken prices up by 32.8% and 20.7% MoM, respectively.
The transport index is expected to decline by 0.7% MoM due to lower fuel prices, while the clothing and footwear index is
projected to rise by 1.2% MoM.
On a YoY basis, food inflation is anticipated to ease to 0.9%, but non-food inflation is likely to remain elevated, led by
healthcare (+12.5%), education (+10.4%), clothing (+9.9%), and restaurants (+8.4%).
Economy: IMF Backs Pakistan’s Reforms With USD2.4bn Funding Package - By AHCML Research
May 19 2025
Al Habib Capital Markets
The IMF report on Pakistan highlights the country's economic performance under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF)
program, noting improvements in fiscal discipline, external stability, and structural reforms. However, challenges
persist, including subdued growth, elevated core inflation, and risks from external shocks such as recent US tariff
hikes. Key achievements include meeting quantitative performance criteria (QPCs), rebuilding foreign reserves, and
advancing tax reforms. The report emphasizes the need for sustained policy tightening, fiscal consolidation, and
energy sector reforms to ensure long-term stability. Additionally, the proposed Resilience and Sustainability Facility
(RSF) aims to address climate vulnerabilities and promote green growth.
Pakistan's economy has shown signs of stabilization but continues to face significant challenges. After recording
GDP growth of 2.5% in FY24, economic activity softened in the first half of FY25, with growth slowing to 1.3% in
Q1 and 1.7% in Q2. This deceleration primarily reflects lower yields from major Kharif crops and persistently
subdued industrial activity.
On the inflation front, headline inflation declined sharply to just 0.7% year-on-year in March 2025, driven by
tight macroeconomic policies and declining global food and energy prices. However, core inflation remains
stubbornly high at around 9%, indicating persistent underlying price pressures.
