Ghandhara Automobiles Ltd (GAL): Upward Revision in Earnings, 3Q Preliminary Estimates - By Sherman Research

Mar 27 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Following our January 14, 2025, report, "Breaking Monopolies: GAL Introduces JAC T9 Hunter“, we are revising our earnings forecast upward by 34-62% for FY25-26 and raising our target price to Rs705 per share, driven by the T9 Hunter’s strong market response.
  • We maintain a “Buy” stance, as the stock is currently trading at an attractive FY26 P/E of 5.1x.
  • Our earlier assessment of the T9 Hunter (in pickup market) as a monopoly breaker has proven accurate as evidenced by its overwhelming market response. T9 Hunter’s appealing aesthetics and competitive pricing has driven exceptional demand, leading the company to pause bookings and increase price by 7.7% after just two weeks of launch. The strong demand appears sustainable, with current delivery timelines extending to Sep’25 coupled with lower-cost parts compared to competitors.
Ghandhara Automobiles Ltd (GAL): Upward Revision in Earnings, 3Q Preliminary Estimates - By Sherman Research

Mar 27 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Following our January 14, 2025, report, "Breaking Monopolies: GAL Introduces JAC T9 Hunter“, we are revising our earnings forecast upward by 34-62% for FY25-26 and raising our target price to Rs705 per share, driven by the T9 Hunter’s strong market response.
  • We maintain a “Buy” stance, as the stock is currently trading at an attractive FY26 P/E of 5.1x.
  • Our earlier assessment of the T9 Hunter (in pickup market) as a monopoly breaker has proven accurate as evidenced by its overwhelming market response. T9 Hunter’s appealing aesthetics and competitive pricing has driven exceptional demand, leading the company to pause bookings and increase price by 7.7% after just two weeks of launch. The strong demand appears sustainable, with current delivery timelines extending to Sep’25 coupled with lower-cost parts compared to competitors.
Ghandhara Automobiles Limited (GAL): Result Review: GAL 2QFY25 EPS Rs8.2 - By Sherman Research

Feb 26 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Ghandhara Automobiles Limited (GAL) announced 2QFY25 result today wherein the company posted consolidated earning of Rs469mn (EPS Rs8.2) down 22%QoQ.
  • The decline in GAL's PAT is attributed to lower Dongfeng trucks to ~100 units (down 15%QoQ) coupled with lower other income and higher operating expenses.
  • Additionally, sales of JAC trucks increased to 309 units (up 14%QoQ).
Ghandhara Automobiles Ltd (GAL): Breaking Monopolies: GAL Introduces JAC T9 Hunter – By Sherman Research

Jan 14 2025


Sherman Securities


  • GAL has made a strategic entry into the pickup truck market with the launch of the JAC T9 Hunter. The vehicle's appealing aesthetics and competitive pricing are key attributes that position it as a strong contender, challenging the wellestablished market leader in this segment
  • We have removed Chery Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) from our earning estimates, replacing it with T9 Hunter in our earning forecasts of FY25.
  • We have adjusted our consolidated EPS for FY25 reducing them by 9% to Rs40 from Rs44.3, however, FY26 and FY27 profits remain unchanged. Moreover, the truck segment remains the significant contributor to GAL's overall earnings.
Annual Strategy: Market Momentum Ignites: Galloping Towards the Bull Run – By Darson Research

Dec 27 2024


Darson Securities


  • We project the KSE-100 Index to reach a significant milestone of 137,591 by December 2025. This target is based on a comprehensive analysis incorporating Target Price Mapping, Technical Indicators, and Earnings Growth Projections.
  • The global economic landscape is showing signs of recovery, with many central banks adopting a cautious stance toward monetary policy adjustments. As inflationary pressures ease, rate cuts are being calibrated to maintain progress toward inflation targets without overheating economies. This balanced approach is helping bolster demand and restore consumer confidence globally.
  • However, the outcome of the U.S. election is poised to have wide-ranging effects on global markets, economic policy, and central bank strategies. Investors are eager for a decisive result to mitigate the risk of prolonged uncertainty amid heightened market volatility. Donald Trump’s return to the presidency in January 2025 introduces additional unpredictability to an already uncertain economic landscape. While 2025 is expected to be marked by significant uncertainty and volatility, it also offers opportunities that are likely to become clearer as the year progresses.
Ghandhara Automobiles Ltd. (GAL): Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Sherman Research

Nov 22 2024


Sherman Securities


  • Ghandhara Automobiles Limited (GAL) conducted its corporate briefing today, during which the management discussed FY24 and 1QFY25 financial results, along with future outlook.
  • The management informed that the company is in the process of launching the Cherry Cross PHEV model in January or February 2025. The delay is attributed to technical and testing issues faced by the Chinese partner, Cherry International.
  • To recall, during the AGM, the management had announced plans to launch the Cherry Tiggo 4 as a PHEV mode.
Ghandhara Automobiles Limited (GAL): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Nov 22 2024



  • Cherry Tiggo Cross release of CBU expected in 3QFY25 followed by CKD.
  • Truck sales are picking up with more growth anticipated.
  • Ghandhara Automobiles Limited reported earnings per share of PKR 6.40 in FY24 against earnings per share of PKR 3.04 in FY23 an increase of 111%.
Pakistan Economy: Mar-2025 CPI clocks in at 0.7%, a six-decade low - By JS Research

Apr 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • CPI for Mar-2025 clocked in at 0.7%, lowest since 1965. The main contributor to this was the significant decrease in food inflation, which declined 5.1% YoY in Mar-2025.
  • Our average CPI forecast for FY25E is ~5.3%, including a rebound expected in May and June figures. We expect Prime Minister's recent announcement of an ~18% reduction in electricity prices to provide additional support in lowering overall inflation. 
  • The SBP did not cut interest rates in the last MPC meeting but based on the lower-than-expected inflation readings thus far, we may see a cut in rates going forward. At present, the real interest rate (RIR) hovers around ~11.3pp.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 setting new high - By JS Research

Apr 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a positive session, closing at 118,938, up 1,131 points DoD. Trading volumes stood at 423mn shares, compared to 330mn shares previously. The index is expected to face resistance between 119,180 and 119,430, with a breakout targeting 120,937 and 122,299, respectively. On the downside, support is anticipated in the 117,900-118,540 range. The RSI and MACD have moved up, reinforcing a positive outlook. We recommend investors view any downside as a ‘Buy’ opportunity, with risk defined below 117,508. The support and resistance levels are at 117,904 and 119,575, respectively.
Morning News: Goods exports rise by 7.7% to $24.7bn in nine months - By Vector Research

Apr 4 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s exports climbed 7.7 percent to $24.7 billion in the first nine months of the fiscal year 2024-25, bolstered by gains in textiles, rice and other key agricultural products. The policymakers expect total exports to surpass $33 billion by June, aiming to sustain the momentum despite economic headwinds.
  • Pakistan's annual inflation rate slowed to just 0.7% in March, the lowest level in over 57 years, primarily due to a reduction in prices of perishable food items and some relief in electricity rates. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Thursday reported that the price spiral significantly eased in March compared to a year ago. It was the lowest inflation rate since September 1968, when the country recorded an annual inflation rate below 0.7%.
  • Pakistan’s central bank’s foreign exchange reserves increased by $70 million to $10.68 billion during the week ended March 28, the State Bank of Pakistan said on Thursday. The total liquid foreign reserves held by the country also rose by $29 million to $15.58 billion. However, the reserves of commercial banks fell by $41 million to $4.903 billion.
Economy: Sweeping Tariff Hikes Announced - By IIS Research

Apr 4 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new set of tariffs aimed at reducing trade imbalances and protecting American industries. Starting April 5, a 10% tariff will apply to all imports into the United States. In addition, much higher tariffs will be imposed on certain countries, including a 34% tariff on Chinese goods and a 20% tariff on European Union exports, beginning April 9. The U.S. government believes these actions will help bring back manufacturing jobs and reduce its trade deficit. However, the move has caused strong reactions from affected countries like China and the EU, who have promised to take countermeasures. Global markets have already reacted negatively, with Asian stock markets falling sharply and U.S. and European futures showing losses. Experts are warning that these tariffs could increase inflation, raise production costs, and slow down economic growth both in the U.S. and worldwide.
  • For Pakistan, this situation presents both challenges and possible advantages. In 2024, Pakistan exported around $5.7 billion worth of goods to the U.S., and 80– 85% of that was textile-related products such as garments, home textiles, and fabrics. Pakistani textile exports will face a 29% tariff in the U.S., which is high compared to many other countries. However, with the U.S. now increasing tariffs even more on countries like China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh—Pakistan’s main competitors in textiles there could be a window of opportunity. If U.S. buyers look for cheaper alternatives to avoid higher tariffs on Chinese and Vietnamese goods, Pakistani products may become more attractive.
Economy: March CPI Clocked in at 0.7%YoY - By Sherman Research

Apr 3 2025


Sherman Securities


  • CPI for March’25 is recorded at 0.7%YoY compared to 1.5%YoY during the previous month thanks to decrease in food & housing index and base effect.
  • The food index reported disinflation (i.e. down 5.1%YoY) in March’25 which is highest decline since recent history. This decrease is primarily due to decline in prices of wheat flour (down 35%), wheat (down 35%), onions (down 71%), fresh vegetables (down 32%) and tomatoes (down 54%).
  • On a MoM basis, inflation increased by 0.9%MoM primarily driven by food index (up 1.9%MoM) and slight decline in housing index (down 0.1%MoM) mainly due to decline in electricity charges (down 1.3%MoM). The uptick in inflation was largely attributed to the Ramzan effect.
Economy: Reciprocal Tariffs of US Impact on Pakistan and Listed Cos - By Topline Research

Apr 3 2025


Topline Securities


  • The United States of America (USA) has imposed reciprocal tariffs on its trading partners including Pakistan, aiming to boost domestic manufacturing by making foreign imports expensive and to raise revenue.
  • The reciprocal duties ranges from 10-48%, which reportedly is in addition to universal tariff of 10% on all countries.
  • The reciprocal duties are imposed with the exception of Mexico and Canada as these countries were subject to previously announced tariffs of 10-25%. While certain goods from key industries i.e. steel, aluminum, automobiles, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber - are also exempt from these rates.
Economy: Mar-2025: 4% MoM gain led by IMF’s positive feedback - By JS Research

Apr 3 2025


JS Global Capital


  • KSE-100 posted monthly gain of 4% or 4.55k points for the month of March, after seeing negative returns for the first two months of CY25. This was primarily led by the positive outcome of IMF’s review. KSE-100 also hit all time high of 118.7k points but didn’t manage to sustain due to weaker trading activity reflecting the Ramadan affect. ADTO was down 29% MoM in terms of shares traded, where mutual funds (Net Outflow: US$295mn) and foreigners (Net Outflow: US$12mn) were net sellers during the month while banks were net buyers.
  • We witnessed interest in Energy stocks during the month on back of expectation of IMF approval for government's proposal to address the outstanding circular debt. Resultantly, Energy sector stocks mainly PSO, SNGP, PPL and OGDC reported MoM gains of 29%, 19%, 12%, 10% respectively from their lows seen during the month.
  • IMF staff and Pakistani authorities reached an SLA on the first review under Pakistan’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and a new 28-month Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangement with total access of US$1.3bn (SDR 1bn). Pakistan is now expected to receive US$2.3bn including immediate disbursement of US$1bn under the 2nd tranche of EFF by early-May subsequent to IMF board approval meanwhile IMF team is also due in May to review the FY26 Budget. IMF mission highlighted Pakistan efforts towards achieving macroeconomic stability and fiscal reforms aims at maintaining tight monetary policy to keep medium term inflation within 5%-7%, achieving primary surplus target of 1% of GDP, continuing energy sector reforms to reduce circular debt (integration of CPPs to the grid and power tariffs adjustment) and implementation of climate reforms in order to comply with the RSF (including introduction of carbon levy, water pricing).
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation to continue - By JS Research

Apr 3 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile session to close at 117,807, up 34 points DoD. Volumes stood low at 330mn shares compared to 357mn shares traded in the previous session. The current pattern suggests further consolidation ahead. Meanwhile, a fall below 117,551 (Thursday’s low) will extend the decline towards the 30-DMA currently at 114,731 level. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 118,120-118,440 where a break above potentially targeting 120,937 and 122,299 levels, respectively. We advise investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance levels are at 117,523 and 118,119, respectively.
Morning News: IMF’s RSF; Pakistan to get $1.3bn in tranches - By Vector Research

Apr 3 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Director of Communications Julie Kozack said Pakistan will receive $1.3 billion under Resilience and Sustainable Facility (RSF) in tranches over 28 months. Speaking at a press conference, Kozack said that for the RSF over the length of the arrangement, subject to approval by the IMF’s Executive Board, the staff-level agreement references an amount of $1.3 billion and that access will be over the life of the RSF, delivered in tranches.
  • Azerbaijan has offered over $1 billion loan in cash deposit in response to Pakistan's request for funding the $1.2 billion Sukkur-Hyderabad motorway amid a disagreement among various government departments over the mode of lending.
  • Remittances are expected to cross a record high of $3.5 billion in March, rising 15 per cent month-on-month, driven largely by inflows during Ramazan, according to financial experts and currency dealer.
Morning News: IMF’s RSF; Pakistan to get $1.3bn in tranches - By WE Research

Apr 3 2025



  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that Pakistan will receive $1.3 billion under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) in tranches over 28 months, subject to approval by the IMF's Executive Board. This follows a staff-level agreement reached on March 25, 2025, after the first review of Pakistan's 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF), which was approved in September 2024 for $7 billion. The RSF disbursements, which are spread over the duration of the arrangement, will be provided alongside a $1 billion disbursement from the EFF once the Executive Board approves the first review.
  • Azerbaijan has offered over $1 billion in cash deposits to Pakistan to fund the construction of the $1.2 billion Sukkur-Hyderabad motorway, following a request from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif during his recent visit. The proposal includes two options: Azerbaijan’s State Oil Fund placing a term cash deposit with Pakistan’s State Bank, which would then lend the money to the National Highway Authority (NHA), or Azerbaijan, in collaboration with the Islamic Development Bank, directly funding the project. Pakistan has also sought financing for the Hyderabad-Karachi motorway (M-9), estimated to cost $600 million. Despite this offer, there is a lack of consensus among Pakistani government departments, with the Finance Ministry opposing the cash deposit route. The NHA is exploring options, including public-private partnerships, to move forward with the projects, but delays are expected due to limited fiscal space. This comes amid ongoing efforts to secure foreign investments and address Pakistan's infrastructure needs while grappling with political and economic instability.
  • The federal government has announced a reduction in the price of petrol by Rs1 per litre, effective from March 29, lowering the price to Rs254.63 from Rs255.63. However, the price of High-Speed Diesel remains unchanged at Rs258.64 per litre. The price adjustments, recommended by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), were made based on fluctuations in international market rates, with the aim of providing relief to consumers.
Economy: March CPI Clocked in at 0.7%YoY - By Sherman Research

Apr 3 2025


Sherman Securities


  • CPI for March’25 is recorded at 0.7%YoY compared to 1.5%YoY during the previous month thanks to decrease in food & housing index and base effect.
  • The food index reported disinflation (i.e. down 5.1%YoY) in March’25 which is highest decline since recent history. This decrease is primarily due to decline in prices of wheat flour (down 35%), wheat (down 35%), onions (down 71%), fresh vegetables (down 32%) and tomatoes (down 54%).
  • On a MoM basis, inflation increased by 0.9%MoM primarily driven by food index (up 1.9%MoM) and slight decline in housing index (down 0.1%MoM) mainly due to decline in electricity charges (down 1.3%MoM). The uptick in inflation was largely attributed to the Ramzan effect.
Ghandhara Automobiles Ltd (GAL): Upward Revision in Earnings, 3Q Preliminary Estimates - By Sherman Research

Mar 27 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Following our January 14, 2025, report, "Breaking Monopolies: GAL Introduces JAC T9 Hunter“, we are revising our earnings forecast upward by 34-62% for FY25-26 and raising our target price to Rs705 per share, driven by the T9 Hunter’s strong market response.
  • We maintain a “Buy” stance, as the stock is currently trading at an attractive FY26 P/E of 5.1x.
  • Our earlier assessment of the T9 Hunter (in pickup market) as a monopoly breaker has proven accurate as evidenced by its overwhelming market response. T9 Hunter’s appealing aesthetics and competitive pricing has driven exceptional demand, leading the company to pause bookings and increase price by 7.7% after just two weeks of launch. The strong demand appears sustainable, with current delivery timelines extending to Sep’25 coupled with lower-cost parts compared to competitors.
Economy: Pakistan’s Trade Deficit Held Steady in Feb’25 - By Sherman Research

Mar 19 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Detailed breakdown on trade numbers released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) show imports declined to US$4.8bn (down 9%MoM), during Feb’25 compared to US$5.3bn in Jan’25. Historically, imports tend to remain lower in February. This decline was primarily driven by lower imports in the petroleum, machinery and agriculture sectors on weighted average basis, while food imports remained flat.
  • During 8MFY25, import bill was recorded at US$37.9bn (up, 8%YoY) mainly due to higher imports of machinery, and textile groups, while petroleum imports remained flat. Moreover, credit to private sectors has increased to Rs13trn (up 18%YoY and 17% since in June’24), wherein manufacturing loans are up 10%YoY and textile 14%YoY.
  • Similarly, exports also declined to US$2.5bn (down 16%MoM) during Feb’24. However, during 8MFY25, exports clocked in at US$22bn (up 8%YoY), largely supported by growth in exports in the food and textile sectors.
Food & Personal Care: Sector Earnings Grew by Massive 54%YoY - By Sherman Research

Mar 13 2025


Sherman Securities


  • With falling oil prices, sharp reduction in interest rates and improvement in disposable income led by falling inflation, one sector which attracts investors’ attention is Food sector. Pakistan’s listed Food & Personal Care sector is mainly skewed towards edible oils, snacks & related, dairy products and bakery & processed as these four sector contribute 66% of the sector revenue.
  • Interestingly, Pakistan’s listed food & personal care sector has lower representation at PSX (9% of the total market capitalization) while most of the stocks are illiquid since food sector contribute only 4% of the free float market capitalization. However, with reduction in logistic cost led by declining fuel prices and falling interest rates, we may see larger participation in food sector as earning growth momentum to continue.
  • Based on our analysis of 23 listed companies, Pakistan’s combined listed Food & Personal Care industry posted robust profit of Rs13.8bn during Oct-Dec 2024 quarter compared to same quarter last year, up by massive 54%YoY. This growth is mainly led Bakery and processed sector (including MFL,BNL,NATF,GIL), Beverages & Fruit sector (SHEZ, MUREB, QUICE, MFFL), dairy sector (PREMA, FFL, FECLP, NESTLE) and personal care sector (TREET, ZIL, SCL, GLPL, COLG) as these sub sectors grew by massive 300%, 148%, 75% and 39%, respectively (see table no.2).
Fertilizer: Urea Sales to Hit 10-Month Low - By Sherman Research

Mar 4 2025


Sherman Securities


  • According to provisional data, urea sales during Feb’25 is expected to clock in at 353k tons, down 35%YoY. Similarly, DAP sales to decline by 64%YoY. The YoY decline is mainly due to weak farm economics amid lower support prices and higher input costs.
  • On MoM basis, urea sales is likely to decline by 21%MoM, mainly due to high base impact amid wheat season during the last few months.
  • Urea sales of Fauji Group to clock in at 156k tons versus sales of 207k tons during the same period last year, down 25%YoY. Similarly, EFERT is likely to witness sharp decline in urea sales by 47%YoY to 101k tons as compared to 190k tons during the last year. On the flip side Fatima Group sales to clock in at 68k tons, up by 161%YoY.
Ghandhara Automobiles Limited (GAL): Result Review: GAL 2QFY25 EPS Rs8.2 - By Sherman Research

Feb 26 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Ghandhara Automobiles Limited (GAL) announced 2QFY25 result today wherein the company posted consolidated earning of Rs469mn (EPS Rs8.2) down 22%QoQ.
  • The decline in GAL's PAT is attributed to lower Dongfeng trucks to ~100 units (down 15%QoQ) coupled with lower other income and higher operating expenses.
  • Additionally, sales of JAC trucks increased to 309 units (up 14%QoQ).
Fauji Cement Company Limited (FCCL): Result Review: FCCL 2QFY25 EPS Rs1.64 - By Sherman Research

Feb 25 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Fauji Cement Company Limited (FCCL) announced its 2QFY25 result today wherein the company posted net earnings of Rs4bn (EPS of Rs1.64) compared to net earnings of Rs2.7bn (EPS of Rs1.1) during same period last year, up by 51%YoY. The result came in-line with our estimate.
  • During 2QFY25, net revenue surged by 24%YoY to Rs24.9bn primarily driven by rise in volumetric sales (up 19%YoY) and elevated retention prices (up 4%YoY).
  • FCCL’s gross margin clocked in at 36% during 2QFY25 as compared to 33% during the same period last year (up 3ppt). The increase in margins is mainly attributed to lower coal prices and efficient coal mix.
BF Biosciences (BFBIO): 2QFY25 Earning Preview - By Sherman Research

Feb 25 2025


Sherman Securities


  • BF Biosciences (BFBIO) is set to announce its 2QFY25 results on February 27. The company is expected to report net profit of Rs203mn (EPS Rs2.3) compared to EPS of Rs1.31 during previous quarter.
  • We expect BFBIO to post earnings growth of 77%QoQ. The rise in profitability is likely due to improved margins, as the company shifted its sales focus to highermargin products instead of low-margin toll-manufactured products.
  • Additionally, other income from interest on unutilized IPO proceeds further contributed to earnings growth. Finance costs are also expected to decline by 29%QoQ, supported by the repayment of long-term loans and a reduction in the policy rate.
Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW): Result Review: SAZEW 2QFY25 EPS Rs39.8, DPS Rs10 - By Sherman Research

Feb 24 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW) announced 2QFY25 results today wherein the company posted profit-after-tax of Rs2.4bn (EPS Rs39.8), down 43%QoQ below our expectations.
  • The decline in SAZEW’s earnings is attributed to lower sales of Haval SUVs mainly due to year-end effect. We believe the company sold close to ~180 units lower than our estimate of ~350 units during month of Dec’24.
  • SAZEW declared cash dividend of Rs10 per share for 2QFY25, bringing the cumulative dividend payout for 1HFY25 to Rs20 per share.
Cherat Cement (CHCC) Result Review: CHCC 2QFY25 EPS Rs11.7, DPS Rs1.5 - By Sherman Research

Feb 21 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Cherat Cement (CHCC) announced 2QFY25 result today wherein company posted net earnings of Rs2.3bn (EPS of Rs11.7) as compared to Rs1.9bn (EPS of Rs9.6) during the same period last year (up 22%YoY). The result remained lower than our estimate mainly due to lower than expected gross margins. Along with the result, company announced cash dividend of Rs1.5/share.
  • During 2QFY25, CHCC’s topline increased to Rs10.6bn as compared to Rs10.2bn during the last year (up 4%YoY). Despite decline in volumetric sales (down 7%YoY), rise in topline is due to elevated cement prices.
  • CHCC’s gross margin clocked in at 36% during 2QFY25 as compared to 35% during the same period last year. The increase in margins is due to better retention prices during the period.
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