Pakistan Economy: Mar-2025 CPI clocks in at 0.7%, a six-decade low - By JS Research

Apr 4 2025

JS Global Capital

• CPI for Mar-2025 clocked in at 0.7%, lowest since 1965. The main contributor to this was the significant decrease in food inflation, which declined 5.1% YoY in Mar-2025.

• Our average CPI forecast for FY25E is ~5.3%, including a rebound expected in May and June figures. We expect Prime Minister's recent announcement of an ~18% reduction in electricity prices to provide additional support in lowering overall inflation. 

• The SBP did not cut interest rates in the last MPC meeting but based on the lower-than-expected inflation readings thus far, we may see a cut in rates going forward. At present, the real interest rate (RIR) hovers around ~11.3pp.

Technical Outlook: KSE-100 setting new high - By JS Research

Apr 4 2025

JS Global Capital

• The KSE-100 index witnessed a positive session, closing at 118,938, up 1,131 points DoD. Trading volumes stood at 423mn shares, compared to 330mn shares previously. The index is expected to face resistance between 119,180 and 119,430, with a breakout targeting 120,937 and 122,299, respectively. On the downside, support is anticipated in the 117,900-118,540 range. The RSI and MACD have moved up, reinforcing a positive outlook. We recommend investors view any downside as a ‘Buy’ opportunity, with risk defined below 117,508. The support and resistance levels are at 117,904 and 119,575, respectively.

Morning News: Goods exports rise by 7.7% to $24.7bn in nine months - By Vector Research

Apr 4 2025

Vector Securities

• Pakistan’s exports climbed 7.7 percent to $24.7 billion in the first nine months of the fiscal year 2024-25, bolstered by gains in textiles, rice and other key agricultural products. The policymakers expect total exports to surpass $33 billion by June, aiming to sustain the momentum despite economic headwinds.

• Pakistan's annual inflation rate slowed to just 0.7% in March, the lowest level in over 57 years, primarily due to a reduction in prices of perishable food items and some relief in electricity rates. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Thursday reported that the price spiral significantly eased in March compared to a year ago. It was the lowest inflation rate since September 1968, when the country recorded an annual inflation rate below 0.7%.

• Pakistan’s central bank’s foreign exchange reserves increased by $70 million to $10.68 billion during the week ended March 28, the State Bank of Pakistan said on Thursday. The total liquid foreign reserves held by the country also rose by $29 million to $15.58 billion. However, the reserves of commercial banks fell by $41 million to $4.903 billion.

Economy: Sweeping Tariff Hikes Announced - By IIS Research

Apr 4 2025

Ismail Iqbal Securities

• On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new set of tariffs aimed at reducing trade imbalances and protecting American industries. Starting April 5, a 10% tariff will apply to all imports into the United States. In addition, much higher tariffs will be imposed on certain countries, including a 34% tariff on Chinese goods and a 20% tariff on European Union exports, beginning April 9. The U.S. government believes these actions will help bring back manufacturing jobs and reduce its trade deficit. However, the move has caused strong reactions from affected countries like China and the EU, who have promised to take countermeasures. Global markets have already reacted negatively, with Asian stock markets falling sharply and U.S. and European futures showing losses. Experts are warning that these tariffs could increase inflation, raise production costs, and slow down economic growth both in the U.S. and worldwide.

• For Pakistan, this situation presents both challenges and possible advantages. In 2024, Pakistan exported around $5.7 billion worth of goods to the U.S., and 80– 85% of that was textile-related products such as garments, home textiles, and fabrics. Pakistani textile exports will face a 29% tariff in the U.S., which is high compared to many other countries. However, with the U.S. now increasing tariffs even more on countries like China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh—Pakistan’s main competitors in textiles there could be a window of opportunity. If U.S. buyers look for cheaper alternatives to avoid higher tariffs on Chinese and Vietnamese goods, Pakistani products may become more attractive.

Economy: March CPI Clocked in at 0.7%YoY - By Sherman Research

Apr 3 2025

Sherman Securities

• CPI for March’25 is recorded at 0.7%YoY compared to 1.5%YoY during the previous month thanks to decrease in food & housing index and base effect.

• The food index reported disinflation (i.e. down 5.1%YoY) in March’25 which is highest decline since recent history. This decrease is primarily due to decline in prices of wheat flour (down 35%), wheat (down 35%), onions (down 71%), fresh vegetables (down 32%) and tomatoes (down 54%).

• On a MoM basis, inflation increased by 0.9%MoM primarily driven by food index (up 1.9%MoM) and slight decline in housing index (down 0.1%MoM) mainly due to decline in electricity charges (down 1.3%MoM). The uptick in inflation was largely attributed to the Ramzan effect.

Economy: Reciprocal Tariffs of US Impact on Pakistan and Listed Cos - By Topline Research

Apr 3 2025

Topline Securities

• The United States of America (USA) has imposed reciprocal tariffs on its trading partners including Pakistan, aiming to boost domestic manufacturing by making foreign imports expensive and to raise revenue.

• The reciprocal duties ranges from 10-48%, which reportedly is in addition to universal tariff of 10% on all countries.

• The reciprocal duties are imposed with the exception of Mexico and Canada as these countries were subject to previously announced tariffs of 10-25%. While certain goods from key industries i.e. steel, aluminum, automobiles, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber - are also exempt from these rates.

Economy: Mar-2025: 4% MoM gain led by IMF’s positive feedback - By JS Research

Apr 3 2025

JS Global Capital

• KSE-100 posted monthly gain of 4% or 4.55k points for the month of March, after seeing negative returns for the first two months of CY25. This was primarily led by the positive outcome of IMF’s review. KSE-100 also hit all time high of 118.7k points but didn’t manage to sustain due to weaker trading activity reflecting the Ramadan affect. ADTO was down 29% MoM in terms of shares traded, where mutual funds (Net Outflow: US$295mn) and foreigners (Net Outflow: US$12mn) were net sellers during the month while banks were net buyers.

• We witnessed interest in Energy stocks during the month on back of expectation of IMF approval for government's proposal to address the outstanding circular debt. Resultantly, Energy sector stocks mainly PSO, SNGP, PPL and OGDC reported MoM gains of 29%, 19%, 12%, 10% respectively from their lows seen during the month.

• IMF staff and Pakistani authorities reached an SLA on the first review under Pakistan’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and a new 28-month Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangement with total access of US$1.3bn (SDR 1bn). Pakistan is now expected to receive US$2.3bn including immediate disbursement of US$1bn under the 2nd tranche of EFF by early-May subsequent to IMF board approval meanwhile IMF team is also due in May to review the FY26 Budget. IMF mission highlighted Pakistan efforts towards achieving macroeconomic stability and fiscal reforms aims at maintaining tight monetary policy to keep medium term inflation within 5%-7%, achieving primary surplus target of 1% of GDP, continuing energy sector reforms to reduce circular debt (integration of CPPs to the grid and power tariffs adjustment) and implementation of climate reforms in order to comply with the RSF (including introduction of carbon levy, water pricing).

Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation to continue - By JS Research

Apr 3 2025

JS Global Capital

• The KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile session to close at 117,807, up 34 points DoD. Volumes stood low at 330mn shares compared to 357mn shares traded in the previous session. The current pattern suggests further consolidation ahead. Meanwhile, a fall below 117,551 (Thursday’s low) will extend the decline towards the 30-DMA currently at 114,731 level. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 118,120-118,440 where a break above potentially targeting 120,937 and 122,299 levels, respectively. We advise investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance levels are at 117,523 and 118,119, respectively.

Morning News: IMF’s RSF; Pakistan to get $1.3bn in tranches - By Vector Research

Apr 3 2025

Vector Securities

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Director of Communications Julie Kozack said Pakistan will receive $1.3 billion under Resilience and Sustainable Facility (RSF) in tranches over 28 months. Speaking at a press conference, Kozack said that for the RSF over the length of the arrangement, subject to approval by the IMF’s Executive Board, the staff-level agreement references an amount of $1.3 billion and that access will be over the life of the RSF, delivered in tranches.

• Azerbaijan has offered over $1 billion loan in cash deposit in response to Pakistan's request for funding the $1.2 billion Sukkur-Hyderabad motorway amid a disagreement among various government departments over the mode of lending.

• Remittances are expected to cross a record high of $3.5 billion in March, rising 15 per cent month-on-month, driven largely by inflows during Ramazan, according to financial experts and currency dealer.

Morning News: IMF’s RSF; Pakistan to get $1.3bn in tranches - By WE Research

Apr 3 2025

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that Pakistan will receive $1.3 billion under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) in tranches over 28 months, subject to approval by the IMF's Executive Board. This follows a staff-level agreement reached on March 25, 2025, after the first review of Pakistan's 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF), which was approved in September 2024 for $7 billion. The RSF disbursements, which are spread over the duration of the arrangement, will be provided alongside a $1 billion disbursement from the EFF once the Executive Board approves the first review.

• Azerbaijan has offered over $1 billion in cash deposits to Pakistan to fund the construction of the $1.2 billion Sukkur-Hyderabad motorway, following a request from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif during his recent visit. The proposal includes two options: Azerbaijan’s State Oil Fund placing a term cash deposit with Pakistan’s State Bank, which would then lend the money to the National Highway Authority (NHA), or Azerbaijan, in collaboration with the Islamic Development Bank, directly funding the project. Pakistan has also sought financing for the Hyderabad-Karachi motorway (M-9), estimated to cost $600 million. Despite this offer, there is a lack of consensus among Pakistani government departments, with the Finance Ministry opposing the cash deposit route. The NHA is exploring options, including public-private partnerships, to move forward with the projects, but delays are expected due to limited fiscal space. This comes amid ongoing efforts to secure foreign investments and address Pakistan's infrastructure needs while grappling with political and economic instability.

• The federal government has announced a reduction in the price of petrol by Rs1 per litre, effective from March 29, lowering the price to Rs254.63 from Rs255.63. However, the price of High-Speed Diesel remains unchanged at Rs258.64 per litre. The price adjustments, recommended by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), were made based on fluctuations in international market rates, with the aim of providing relief to consumers.