Economy: Sweeping Tariff Hikes Announced - By IIS Research

Apr 4 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new set of tariffs aimed at reducing trade imbalances and protecting American industries. Starting April 5, a 10% tariff will apply to all imports into the United States. In addition, much higher tariffs will be imposed on certain countries, including a 34% tariff on Chinese goods and a 20% tariff on European Union exports, beginning April 9. The U.S. government believes these actions will help bring back manufacturing jobs and reduce its trade deficit. However, the move has caused strong reactions from affected countries like China and the EU, who have promised to take countermeasures. Global markets have already reacted negatively, with Asian stock markets falling sharply and U.S. and European futures showing losses. Experts are warning that these tariffs could increase inflation, raise production costs, and slow down economic growth both in the U.S. and worldwide.
  • For Pakistan, this situation presents both challenges and possible advantages. In 2024, Pakistan exported around $5.7 billion worth of goods to the U.S., and 80– 85% of that was textile-related products such as garments, home textiles, and fabrics. Pakistani textile exports will face a 29% tariff in the U.S., which is high compared to many other countries. However, with the U.S. now increasing tariffs even more on countries like China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh—Pakistan’s main competitors in textiles there could be a window of opportunity. If U.S. buyers look for cheaper alternatives to avoid higher tariffs on Chinese and Vietnamese goods, Pakistani products may become more attractive.

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Systems Limited (SYS):2024 Annual Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

Apr 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Systems Limited (SYS) held its corporate briefing today to discuss 2024 financial result and future outlook.
  • SYS EBITDA margins in 2024 decreased to ~15% in 2024 compared to 18% in 2023. Revenue growth in USD terms was 27% in 2024 compared to 2% growth in EBITDA. In 2024 Revenue in USD terms stood at US$242.35mn and EBITDA stood at US$35.94mn.
  • Appreciation of PKR had dealt a blow to margins of the company since the management had planned for PKR to depreciate by 5% in 2024. Going, forward management is now focused on optimizing its operations rather than be dependent on PKR depreciation
Fertilizer:1QCY25E earnings to drop on lower off-take - By Taurus Research

Apr 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness a decline in profitability (24%YoY) on the back of drastic drop in off-take during 1QCY25 i.e. Urea down 40%YoY and DAP down 50% YoY, attributed to continuous disruption in water supply (Rabi Season 2024-25), lower farm economics, weak outlook for wheat and seasonality effect i.e. Ramazan and Eid Holidays.
  • However, EFERT’s market share dropped to 23% (down 10pptsYoY) in 1QCY25 owning to higher gas tariffs compared to FFC along with increase in the market share post amalgamation with FFBL during 2HCY24 (up 13pptsYoY in 1QFY25). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has put significant pressure on the margins (down 7pptsYoY in 1QCY25) of EFERT, forcing it to sell Urea at a discounted price (dropped by PKR 100/bag during 1QCY25).
Cement: Mar-2025 Local dispatches decline 11% YoY - By JS Research

Apr 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Cement dispatches for Mar-2025 clocked in at 3.6mn tons, reflecting a 9% YoY decline, primarily due to an 11% drop in local dispatches in both the North and South regions amid Ramadan season. While export dispatches remained relatively flat YoY during the month as a 23% YoY increase in Southern exports was offset by an 85% decline in North exports.
  • Cement prices in the North region continued their upward trend during the month, rising by Rs50–60/bag to approximately Rs1,400/bag – taking the cumulative increase to approximately Rs90/bag.
  • Additionally, the government’s announced power tariff reduction of Rs7.59/unit is expected to benefit grid-reliant players such as FCCL, KOHC, and ACPL having an impact of 6.8%, 4.6% and 8.6% on FY26E EPS.
Pakistan Fertilizer: 1QCY25 Preview: Lower offtakes to dent profitability - By Insight Research

Apr 10 2025


Insight Securities


  • As per NFDC, urea offtakes decreased by 38% YoY to clock in at 1.13mn tons in 1QCY25, from 1.82mn tons in SPLY. Similarly, DAP offtakes decreased by 52% YoY to reach at 143kt, compared to 299kt in SPLY. This decrease is primarily attributable to weak farm economics. Due to steep decline in offtakes, we estimate EFERT/FFC/FATIMA to post EPS of PKR2.0/9.1/3.3 in 1QCY25, respectively.
  • FFC is expected to post unconsolidated PAT of PKR12.9bn (EPS: PKR9.1) in 1QCY25, reflecting a decline of ~13%/9% YoY/QoQ, primarily driven by lower offtakes. In 1QCY25, FFC's urea offtakes decrease by 34%/36% YoY/QoQ to reach at 537kt, compared to 819kt in the SPLY and 839kt in previous quarter. Similarly, DAP offtakes decreased by 52%/77% YoY/QoQ. FFC's revenue is expected to clock in at PKR60.8bn, down from PKR104.9bn in SPLY. Gross margins are expected to increase by ~11ppts YoY, amid increase in product prices. Similarly on QoQ basis, gross margins improved by ~10ppts due to a one-off adjustment in the previous quarter following the FFBL merger. Additionally, company’s finance cost is anticipated to decrease by 35% YoY, primarily due to decline in interest rates. Other income is expected to witness a decrease of ~46% YoY, amid lower dividend income and interest rates. Whereas same is expected to increase by ~14% QoQ due to dividend income in the quarter and increase in cash & cash equivalent. Along with the result, we expect company to announce a cash dividend of PKR7.3/sh.
Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW): 3QFY25 EPS to Clock in at Rs90.7 - By Sherman Research

Apr 10 2025


Sherman Securities


  • We present 3QFY25 earnings estimate for Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW) wherein company is expected to post net earnings of Rs5.4bn (EPS Rs90.7) as compared to net earnings of Rs3bn (EPS of Rs50.2), up 81%YoY. Furthermore, SAZEW is expected to announce a cash dividend of Rs20/share (up 2.5xYoY) in 3QFY25.
  • The growth in profitability is primarily driven by higher sales of Haval HEV SUVs coupled with higher sustained gross margins expected at 29.5% (supported by tax exemptions on HEV CKD imports).
  • On cumulative basis, net earnings are expected to reach Rs12.2bn (EPS Rs200) compared to net earnings of Rs4.4bn (EPS 73.6) up by 2.7xYoY during 9MFY25
Pakistan Bank: Banks earnings to fall 19% YoY and 12% QoQ in 1Q2025 Market Weight Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

Apr 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Banking Universe is likely to post a 12% QoQ decline in earnings in 1Q2025, amid a fall in Net Interest Income (NII) and Non-Interest Income.
  • NII of the banks in the Universe is likely to decrease by 11% QoQ to Rs279bn due to (1) a decline in the average policy rate from 15.2% in 4Q2024 to 12.3% in 1Q2025, and (2) 10% QoQ decline in advances growth.
  • As per SBP’s weekly publication, advances of the banking sector declined by 10% QoQ from Rs15.6trn as of Dec 27, 2024, to Rs13.9trn as of Feb 28, 2025
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 fall below key averages; cautious - By JS Research

Apr 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Bears dominated the session as the KSE-100 index posted a loss of 1,379 points to close at 114,153 level. Volumes stood at 449mn shares versus 531mn shares traded previously. The Index has dropped below the 50-DMA and the 30-DMA that will now restrict upside at 114,257 and 115,342 levels, respectively. However, a fall below 112,891 will extend the decline to the recent low of 110,104 level. The RSI and MACD have shown weakness, warranting a cautious stance. We recommend investors to remain cautious at higher levels and wait for dips. The support and resistance levels are at 112,999 and 115,200 levels.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day April 9, 2025 - By JS Research

Apr 9 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced a sharp decline as the benchmark index dropped by 2,641 points intraday, closing 1,379 points down at 114,153. This downturn stemmed from escalating political uncertainty, concerns over economic reforms, which has created tension in global markets too. The market breached several psychological thresholds, amplifying investor anxiety. The market's trajectory will remain volatile until there is greater clarity on both political and economic fronts. Stakeholders should approach with caution amidst these uncertainties.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day April 9, 2025 - By JS Research

Apr 9 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced a sharp decline as the benchmark index dropped by 2,641 points intraday, closing 1,379 points down at 114,153. This downturn stemmed from escalating political uncertainty, concerns over economic reforms, which has created tension in global markets too. The market breached several psychological thresholds, amplifying investor anxiety. The market's trajectory will remain volatile until there is greater clarity on both political and economic fronts. Stakeholders should approach with caution amidst these uncertainties.
Mughal Iron & Steel Industries Limited (MUGHAL): 1HFY25 Analyst Briefing Key Takeaways - By Foundation Research

Apr 9 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Mughal Iron & Steel Industries Limited (MUGHAL PA) held its analyst briefing to discuss the company’s financial performance during 1HFY25 and outlook.
  • Mughal Iron & Steels Industries Ltd’s(MUGHAL PA) profitability clocked in at PKR 210Mn (EPS PKR 0.63, down 73% YoY) in 2QFY25 against PKR 773Mn (EPS PKR 2.30) in 2QFY24. This takes 1HFY25 profitability to PKR 217Mn (EPS PKR 0.65, down 83% YoY) as compared to profit of PKR 1.3Bn (EPS 3.84) in 1HFY24.
  • Currently, the company is operating at maximum operational capacity; capacity utilization of furnace plant for melting is 80% and 65-67% for re-rolling. Moreover, the production mix for girders and rebars is 40-45% and 50-55%, respectively.
Economy: Sweeping Tariff Hikes Announced - By IIS Research

Apr 4 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new set of tariffs aimed at reducing trade imbalances and protecting American industries. Starting April 5, a 10% tariff will apply to all imports into the United States. In addition, much higher tariffs will be imposed on certain countries, including a 34% tariff on Chinese goods and a 20% tariff on European Union exports, beginning April 9. The U.S. government believes these actions will help bring back manufacturing jobs and reduce its trade deficit. However, the move has caused strong reactions from affected countries like China and the EU, who have promised to take countermeasures. Global markets have already reacted negatively, with Asian stock markets falling sharply and U.S. and European futures showing losses. Experts are warning that these tariffs could increase inflation, raise production costs, and slow down economic growth both in the U.S. and worldwide.
  • For Pakistan, this situation presents both challenges and possible advantages. In 2024, Pakistan exported around $5.7 billion worth of goods to the U.S., and 80– 85% of that was textile-related products such as garments, home textiles, and fabrics. Pakistani textile exports will face a 29% tariff in the U.S., which is high compared to many other countries. However, with the U.S. now increasing tariffs even more on countries like China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh—Pakistan’s main competitors in textiles there could be a window of opportunity. If U.S. buyers look for cheaper alternatives to avoid higher tariffs on Chinese and Vietnamese goods, Pakistani products may become more attractive.
Morning News: IMF objects to govt move to borrow Rs1.25tr for circular debt resolution - By IIS Research

Mar 10 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are poised to make key adjustments to the country’s macroeconomic and fiscal framework for the current fiscal year 2024-25. The upcoming policy-level talks, scheduled to commence from Monday, will finalize these adjustments.
  • The government is negotiating a Rs1.25 trillion ($4.47 billion) loan with commercial banks to reduce its bulging energy sector debt, the power minister and banking association said.
  • Energy Minister Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari on Sunday announced that no new surcharge would be imposed on electricity consumers to settle the Rs2400 billion circular debt
Economy: IMF Review Underway: Fiscal Discipline and Revenue Challenges in Focus - By IIS Research

Mar 3 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • A delegation from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has arrived in Pakistan to conduct an economic review and determine the release of the next $1 billion tranche under the $7 billion loan program, with discussions set to continue until March 15.
  • As of now, there is a PKR 606 billion shortfall in the revenue target. However, we believe this can be largely offset by savings on interest costs, driven by the sharp 1,000 bps reduction in policy rates and a continued decline in government borrowing costs. With market yields already adjusting downward and a shift toward cheaper domestic financing, the government's overall debt servicing burden is easing. This should provide some fiscal space to absorb the revenue gap without requiring aggressive expenditure cuts or additional taxation in the near term.
Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK): 1HFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By IIS Research

Feb 21 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK) held its corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results of 1HFY25 and future outlook of the company. Key highlights of the briefing are follows:
  • Local dispatches of the industry declined by 10.4% YoY, reaching 18.1mn tons in 1HFY25 due to subdued demand, while exports saw a significant growth of 31.7% YoY. Local demand showed some improvement in 2QFY25, reflecting an increase of 22.8% QoQ. Looking ahead, the company expects demand to recover from this negative double-digit growth, hinging on factors such as decrease in interest rates. However, Ramazan and Eid factor will likely affect the sales in 2HFY25.
  • For LUCK, total dispatches increased by 8.7% YoY in 1HFY25, primarily driven by rise in exports, as the company continues to explore different export destinations. However, local dispatches declined by 14%, in line with the industry trend.
Morning News: Oil extends gains on strong US demand hopes, Russia supply concerns - By IIS Research

Feb 21 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Oil prices extended gains on Friday, headed for a weekly increase, as falling inventories of U.S. gasoline and distillate raised expectations of solid demand while concerns over supply disruptions in Russia lent support. Brent futures climbed 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $76.64 a barrel by 0123 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude edged up 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $72.65. Both benchmarks were set for a weekly gain of about 3%.
  • Federal Minister for Finance Muhammad Aurangzeb said on Thursday that the “country has lost its credibility,” emphasising that urgent economic reforms are necessary to restore trust. During a meeting of the Senate Standing Committee on Climate Change, headed by Senator Sherry Rehman, the top financial czar briefed lawmakers on the country’s climate financing challenges and its negotiations with international lenders.
  • An International Monetary Fund mission will arrive in Islamabad next week to discuss around $1 billion in climate financing for Pakistan, an adviser to the country’s finance minister said on Thursday. Khurram Schehzad told Reuters that the mission would visit from February 24 to 28 for a “review and discussion” of climate resilience funding.
Habib Bank Limited (HBL): Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By IIS Research

Feb 20 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Habib Bank Limited held its corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results of 4QCY24 and future outlook of the bank. The key takeaways of the briefing are listed below:
  • In 4QCY24, wherein the bank posted consolidated profit of PkR14.4bn (EPS: PkR9.8) for the quarter (down 3%YoY/flat on QoQ). Further, the bank also announced final cash dividend of PkR4.25/share, taking total CY24 dividend to PkR16.25/sh (vs. PKR9.5sh in CY23).
  • Total deposits grew by 5.5% from Dec’23 to ~PKR 4.4 trn, with domestic deposits rising by PKR180 bn (5%), primarily driven by an increase in current accounts (PKR 176 bn). Average domestic deposits saw a significant YoY increase of PKR 627 Bn, mainly supported by PKR 405 Bn in low cost deposits. International deposits also expanded to $2.2 Bn, reflecting a $192 million increase over Dec’23. Bank expects 17-18% growth in deposits during CY25
Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF): Earnings surge 3x QoQ on Higher Sales - By IIS Research

Feb 20 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) announced its 2QFY25 results today, where the company posted consolidated PAT of PKR 3.7bn (EPS: PKR 3.57) vs. PKR 1.3bn (EPS: PKR 1.28) in the previous quarter, reflecting a 3x QoQ increase. The result is above our expectations, mainly due to higher than projected revenue and gross margins.
  • The company’s topline grew by 21% QoQ to PKR 19bn, likely driven by 17% QoQ increase in total dispatches and improved export prices. On a YoY basis, revenue went up by 5%, supported by higher bag prices despite a 6% YoY decline in dispatches.
  • Gross margins stood at 40% compared to 32% in the previous quarter, benefiting from improved margins on white cement, an efficient fuel mix, and a decline in coal prices.
Morning News: IMF, govt teams to discuss energy reform mechanism - By IIS Research

Feb 17 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and government’s teams will discuss viable mechanism to extend electricity and gas tariff differential subsidy through Benazir Income Support Fund (BISP), adjustment of gas prices quarterly and additional levy on vehicles on use of liquid fuels on Tuesday (tomorrow), well informed sources in Finance Ministry told Business Recorder.
  • Supreme Court Bar Association of Pakistan (SCBAP) president met with representatives from the Governance and Corruption Diagnostic Assessment team of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Islamabad.
  • The International Finance Corporation (IFC) has announced plans to boost equity investments and target large-scale infrastructure financing in Pakistan, according to Radio Pakistan.
Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT): 4QCY24 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By IIS Research

Feb 14 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Engro Fertilizers Limited held its corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results of CY24 and future outlook of the company. Key highlights of the briefing are follows.
  • To recall, in 4QCY24 the company has posted consolidated earnings of PKR 7.7/share (PKR 21.16/share in CY24). Alongside the result, the company announced a cash dividend of PKR 8.00/share (PKR 21.50/share in CY24).
  • The company highlighted the YoY improvement in annual performance, from revenue to EPS. However, quarterly results showed a 7.8% YoY decline in PAT, driven by discounts offered to dealers. The gross margin for 4QCY24 stood at 35%, up from 31% in the previous quarter, attributed to the reclassification of expenses for better presentation.
Morning News: Oil settles flat, pares early losses as tariffs delayed - By IIS Research

Feb 14 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Oil prices settled flat on Thursday, paring early losses of more than 1% as U.S. tariff announcements were delayed until at least April, feeding hope that the world could avoid a trade war that would pressure economies and energy demand. Brent crude futures settled at $75.02 a barrel, down 16 cents, or 0.21%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished down 8 cents, or 0.11%, at $71.29 a barrel.
  • In a bid to further enhance trade and economic relations between the two countries, Pakistan and Turkiye signed 24 agreements and memoranda of understanding (MoUs) on Thursday, reaffirming their commitment to work towards a bilateral trade volume of $5 billion.
  • The country’s total liquid foreign exchange reserves fell below the $16 billion mark, primarily due to external debt servicing. According to the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) weekly report released on Thursday, the total liquid foreign reserves declined by $181 million, standing at $15.863 billion as of February 7, 2025, compared to $16.044 billion on January 31, 2025.