Morning News: Goods exports rise by 7.7% to $24.7bn in nine months - By Vector Research

Apr 4 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s exports climbed 7.7 percent to $24.7 billion in the first nine months of the fiscal year 2024-25, bolstered by gains in textiles, rice and other key agricultural products. The policymakers expect total exports to surpass $33 billion by June, aiming to sustain the momentum despite economic headwinds.
  • Pakistan's annual inflation rate slowed to just 0.7% in March, the lowest level in over 57 years, primarily due to a reduction in prices of perishable food items and some relief in electricity rates. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Thursday reported that the price spiral significantly eased in March compared to a year ago. It was the lowest inflation rate since September 1968, when the country recorded an annual inflation rate below 0.7%.
  • Pakistan’s central bank’s foreign exchange reserves increased by $70 million to $10.68 billion during the week ended March 28, the State Bank of Pakistan said on Thursday. The total liquid foreign reserves held by the country also rose by $29 million to $15.58 billion. However, the reserves of commercial banks fell by $41 million to $4.903 billion.

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Systems Limited (SYS):2024 Annual Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

Apr 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Systems Limited (SYS) held its corporate briefing today to discuss 2024 financial result and future outlook.
  • SYS EBITDA margins in 2024 decreased to ~15% in 2024 compared to 18% in 2023. Revenue growth in USD terms was 27% in 2024 compared to 2% growth in EBITDA. In 2024 Revenue in USD terms stood at US$242.35mn and EBITDA stood at US$35.94mn.
  • Appreciation of PKR had dealt a blow to margins of the company since the management had planned for PKR to depreciate by 5% in 2024. Going, forward management is now focused on optimizing its operations rather than be dependent on PKR depreciation
Fertilizer:1QCY25E earnings to drop on lower off-take - By Taurus Research

Apr 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness a decline in profitability (24%YoY) on the back of drastic drop in off-take during 1QCY25 i.e. Urea down 40%YoY and DAP down 50% YoY, attributed to continuous disruption in water supply (Rabi Season 2024-25), lower farm economics, weak outlook for wheat and seasonality effect i.e. Ramazan and Eid Holidays.
  • However, EFERT’s market share dropped to 23% (down 10pptsYoY) in 1QCY25 owning to higher gas tariffs compared to FFC along with increase in the market share post amalgamation with FFBL during 2HCY24 (up 13pptsYoY in 1QFY25). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has put significant pressure on the margins (down 7pptsYoY in 1QCY25) of EFERT, forcing it to sell Urea at a discounted price (dropped by PKR 100/bag during 1QCY25).
Cement: Mar-2025 Local dispatches decline 11% YoY - By JS Research

Apr 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Cement dispatches for Mar-2025 clocked in at 3.6mn tons, reflecting a 9% YoY decline, primarily due to an 11% drop in local dispatches in both the North and South regions amid Ramadan season. While export dispatches remained relatively flat YoY during the month as a 23% YoY increase in Southern exports was offset by an 85% decline in North exports.
  • Cement prices in the North region continued their upward trend during the month, rising by Rs50–60/bag to approximately Rs1,400/bag – taking the cumulative increase to approximately Rs90/bag.
  • Additionally, the government’s announced power tariff reduction of Rs7.59/unit is expected to benefit grid-reliant players such as FCCL, KOHC, and ACPL having an impact of 6.8%, 4.6% and 8.6% on FY26E EPS.
Pakistan Fertilizer: 1QCY25 Preview: Lower offtakes to dent profitability - By Insight Research

Apr 10 2025


Insight Securities


  • As per NFDC, urea offtakes decreased by 38% YoY to clock in at 1.13mn tons in 1QCY25, from 1.82mn tons in SPLY. Similarly, DAP offtakes decreased by 52% YoY to reach at 143kt, compared to 299kt in SPLY. This decrease is primarily attributable to weak farm economics. Due to steep decline in offtakes, we estimate EFERT/FFC/FATIMA to post EPS of PKR2.0/9.1/3.3 in 1QCY25, respectively.
  • FFC is expected to post unconsolidated PAT of PKR12.9bn (EPS: PKR9.1) in 1QCY25, reflecting a decline of ~13%/9% YoY/QoQ, primarily driven by lower offtakes. In 1QCY25, FFC's urea offtakes decrease by 34%/36% YoY/QoQ to reach at 537kt, compared to 819kt in the SPLY and 839kt in previous quarter. Similarly, DAP offtakes decreased by 52%/77% YoY/QoQ. FFC's revenue is expected to clock in at PKR60.8bn, down from PKR104.9bn in SPLY. Gross margins are expected to increase by ~11ppts YoY, amid increase in product prices. Similarly on QoQ basis, gross margins improved by ~10ppts due to a one-off adjustment in the previous quarter following the FFBL merger. Additionally, company’s finance cost is anticipated to decrease by 35% YoY, primarily due to decline in interest rates. Other income is expected to witness a decrease of ~46% YoY, amid lower dividend income and interest rates. Whereas same is expected to increase by ~14% QoQ due to dividend income in the quarter and increase in cash & cash equivalent. Along with the result, we expect company to announce a cash dividend of PKR7.3/sh.
Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW): 3QFY25 EPS to Clock in at Rs90.7 - By Sherman Research

Apr 10 2025


Sherman Securities


  • We present 3QFY25 earnings estimate for Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW) wherein company is expected to post net earnings of Rs5.4bn (EPS Rs90.7) as compared to net earnings of Rs3bn (EPS of Rs50.2), up 81%YoY. Furthermore, SAZEW is expected to announce a cash dividend of Rs20/share (up 2.5xYoY) in 3QFY25.
  • The growth in profitability is primarily driven by higher sales of Haval HEV SUVs coupled with higher sustained gross margins expected at 29.5% (supported by tax exemptions on HEV CKD imports).
  • On cumulative basis, net earnings are expected to reach Rs12.2bn (EPS Rs200) compared to net earnings of Rs4.4bn (EPS 73.6) up by 2.7xYoY during 9MFY25
Pakistan Bank: Banks earnings to fall 19% YoY and 12% QoQ in 1Q2025 Market Weight Stance Maintained - By Topline Research

Apr 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Banking Universe is likely to post a 12% QoQ decline in earnings in 1Q2025, amid a fall in Net Interest Income (NII) and Non-Interest Income.
  • NII of the banks in the Universe is likely to decrease by 11% QoQ to Rs279bn due to (1) a decline in the average policy rate from 15.2% in 4Q2024 to 12.3% in 1Q2025, and (2) 10% QoQ decline in advances growth.
  • As per SBP’s weekly publication, advances of the banking sector declined by 10% QoQ from Rs15.6trn as of Dec 27, 2024, to Rs13.9trn as of Feb 28, 2025
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 fall below key averages; cautious - By JS Research

Apr 10 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Bears dominated the session as the KSE-100 index posted a loss of 1,379 points to close at 114,153 level. Volumes stood at 449mn shares versus 531mn shares traded previously. The Index has dropped below the 50-DMA and the 30-DMA that will now restrict upside at 114,257 and 115,342 levels, respectively. However, a fall below 112,891 will extend the decline to the recent low of 110,104 level. The RSI and MACD have shown weakness, warranting a cautious stance. We recommend investors to remain cautious at higher levels and wait for dips. The support and resistance levels are at 112,999 and 115,200 levels.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day April 9, 2025 - By JS Research

Apr 9 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced a sharp decline as the benchmark index dropped by 2,641 points intraday, closing 1,379 points down at 114,153. This downturn stemmed from escalating political uncertainty, concerns over economic reforms, which has created tension in global markets too. The market breached several psychological thresholds, amplifying investor anxiety. The market's trajectory will remain volatile until there is greater clarity on both political and economic fronts. Stakeholders should approach with caution amidst these uncertainties.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day April 9, 2025 - By JS Research

Apr 9 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced a sharp decline as the benchmark index dropped by 2,641 points intraday, closing 1,379 points down at 114,153. This downturn stemmed from escalating political uncertainty, concerns over economic reforms, which has created tension in global markets too. The market breached several psychological thresholds, amplifying investor anxiety. The market's trajectory will remain volatile until there is greater clarity on both political and economic fronts. Stakeholders should approach with caution amidst these uncertainties.
Mughal Iron & Steel Industries Limited (MUGHAL): 1HFY25 Analyst Briefing Key Takeaways - By Foundation Research

Apr 9 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Mughal Iron & Steel Industries Limited (MUGHAL PA) held its analyst briefing to discuss the company’s financial performance during 1HFY25 and outlook.
  • Mughal Iron & Steels Industries Ltd’s(MUGHAL PA) profitability clocked in at PKR 210Mn (EPS PKR 0.63, down 73% YoY) in 2QFY25 against PKR 773Mn (EPS PKR 2.30) in 2QFY24. This takes 1HFY25 profitability to PKR 217Mn (EPS PKR 0.65, down 83% YoY) as compared to profit of PKR 1.3Bn (EPS 3.84) in 1HFY24.
  • Currently, the company is operating at maximum operational capacity; capacity utilization of furnace plant for melting is 80% and 65-67% for re-rolling. Moreover, the production mix for girders and rebars is 40-45% and 50-55%, respectively.
Morning News: Trillions of dollars in minerals can free Pakistan from IMF dependence: PM Shehbaz - By Vector Research

Apr 9 2025


Vector Securities


  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has invited both local and foreign investors to capitalise on Pakistan's vast mineral resources, which are estimated to be worth trillions of dollars. Speaking at the two-day Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum 2025 (PMIF25) in Islamabad on Tuesday, the prime minister expressed optimism that utilising these resources would enable Pakistan to reduce its dependency on global financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
  • Canadian mining giant Barrick Gold is set to raise $3 billion in international financing for the multi-billion-dollar Reko Diq Copper & Gold Project in Balochistan. Barrick’s President and CEO Mark Bristow told Dawn on Tuesday that a financing pact with the World Bank and its commercial arm International Finance Corporation (IFC) was expected to be signed by mid-year and final financing packages by third quarter this year for $650 million. “We expect to drawdown about $500m by 4th quarter,” he said.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Tuesday welcomed a $2 billion investment from global shipping giant AP Moller – Maersk, hailing it as a significant boost to Pakistan’s maritime sector. During a meeting with Robert Maersk, chairman of the board of directors at AP Moller – Maersk, he directed authorities to fast-track the conversion of memoranda of understanding (MoUs) signed with the company last year into formal agreements.
Morning News: Pakistan bondssink over 13 cents on Trump tariff pressure - By Vector Research

Apr 8 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan bonds fell more than 13 cents in the frontier market on Monday, as US President Donald Trump showed no signs of backing away from sweeping tariffs. It was the single biggest decline for Pakistan bonds across many maturities since Russia’s fullscale invasion of Ukraine shook markets in early 2022.
  • Federal Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources Ali Pervaiz Malik has announced that the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum 25 (PMIF25) would commence today (Tuesday) for two days, April 8–9, to highlight the country’s vast mineral potential. At the forum, the government would showcase Pakistan’s mineral-rich landscape, spanning approximately 600,000 square kilometers.
  • As the government considers its options, the private sector views the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs as a strategic manoeuvre to compel Islamabad to engage in discussions for better access to the Pakistani market. The tariffs have also impacted Pakistan’s three main competitors in the US market—India, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. However, New Delhi and Hanoi have already prepared in advance, while Pakistan’s commerce ministry remains in the early stages of discussions.
Morning News: Goods exports rise by 7.7% to $24.7bn in nine months - By Vector Research

Apr 4 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s exports climbed 7.7 percent to $24.7 billion in the first nine months of the fiscal year 2024-25, bolstered by gains in textiles, rice and other key agricultural products. The policymakers expect total exports to surpass $33 billion by June, aiming to sustain the momentum despite economic headwinds.
  • Pakistan's annual inflation rate slowed to just 0.7% in March, the lowest level in over 57 years, primarily due to a reduction in prices of perishable food items and some relief in electricity rates. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Thursday reported that the price spiral significantly eased in March compared to a year ago. It was the lowest inflation rate since September 1968, when the country recorded an annual inflation rate below 0.7%.
  • Pakistan’s central bank’s foreign exchange reserves increased by $70 million to $10.68 billion during the week ended March 28, the State Bank of Pakistan said on Thursday. The total liquid foreign reserves held by the country also rose by $29 million to $15.58 billion. However, the reserves of commercial banks fell by $41 million to $4.903 billion.
Morning News: IMF’s RSF; Pakistan to get $1.3bn in tranches - By Vector Research

Apr 3 2025


Vector Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Director of Communications Julie Kozack said Pakistan will receive $1.3 billion under Resilience and Sustainable Facility (RSF) in tranches over 28 months. Speaking at a press conference, Kozack said that for the RSF over the length of the arrangement, subject to approval by the IMF’s Executive Board, the staff-level agreement references an amount of $1.3 billion and that access will be over the life of the RSF, delivered in tranches.
  • Azerbaijan has offered over $1 billion loan in cash deposit in response to Pakistan's request for funding the $1.2 billion Sukkur-Hyderabad motorway amid a disagreement among various government departments over the mode of lending.
  • Remittances are expected to cross a record high of $3.5 billion in March, rising 15 per cent month-on-month, driven largely by inflows during Ramazan, according to financial experts and currency dealer.
Morning News: Key infrastructure projects; Azerbaijan keen to invest $2bn, Senate panel told - By Vector Research

Mar 25 2025


Vector Securities


  • The Senate Standing Committee on Planning, Development and Special Initiatives was informed that Azerbaijan has expressed its intention to invest $2 billion in Pakistan, potentially impacting key infrastructure projects. 
  • In a step to fulfill another condition set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the government has decided to operationalise the newly established Tax Policy Office by appointing a Director General and five Directors. The Ministry of Finance has invited applications from eligible candidates for these positions.
  • The rupee weakened slightly on Monday as the uncertainty over the finalisation of the staff-level agreement (SLA) with the International Monetary Fund for the second $1 billion tranche of the $7 billion bailout weighed on the local currency.
Morning News: Quarterly GDP growth figures to be released next week - By Vector Research

Mar 19 2025


Vector Securities


  • In a bid to meet an IMF condition, the government is all set to release quarterly GDP growth rate figures for the second quarter (Oct-Dec) of the current fiscal year next week amid declining trends in industrial sector. The real GDP growth will now mainly rely on the services sector and to some extent on the neglected agriculture sector.
  • Pakistan exported a record 933,000 tonnes of furnace oil in the first eight months of the current financial year, as the country’s power sector continues to phase out its use due to high costs and environmental concerns. According to oil sector data, fuel oil exports, however, plummeted to 39,000 tonnes in February, compared to 190,000 tonnes in January.Industry sources attributed the lower exports to an accumulation of furnace oil in local refineries, as buyers prefer to purchase in bulk.
Morning News: IMF says making progress on Pakistan review, new climate loan - By Vector Research

Mar 17 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have so far been unable to strike a staff-level agreement. However, the IMF staff stated that both sides made significant progress toward reaching an agreement under the 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Despite claims by Pakistani authorities of moving toward a broader agreement with the IMF, frequent changes by policymakers ultimately proved to be stumbling blocks, leading to the failure to finalise a staff-level agreement for the time being.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has agreed to scrap the Tajir Dost Scheme (TDS) after the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) shared data indicating that tax collections from retailers, wholesalers, and Associations of Persons (AOPs) have far exceeded the Rs50 billion target initially envisaged under the scheme.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has proposed an incentive scheme for overseas Pakistanis to repatriate their declared assets worth approximately $30 billion. This was disclosed by Special Assistant to the Prime Minister (SAPM) for Industries and Production.
Morning News: IMF agreesto cut FBR tax collection target by Rs620bn - By Vector Research

Mar 14 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan and the IMF have agreed to revise downward the macroeconomic and fiscal framework for the current fiscal year, under which the FBR’s annual tax collection target was slashed down from Rs12.97 trillion to Rs12.35 trillion. Without changing the envisaged tax-to-GDP ratio target of 10.6 per cent, the FBR’s annual tax collection target was revised downward to the tune of Rs0.62 trillion, or Rs620 billion.
  • The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has collected Rs7,346 billion during the first eight months (July-February) 2024-25 against the target of Rs7,947 billion, reflecting a massive shortfall of Rs601 billion. The FBR data revealed that the FBR has provisionally collected Rs850 billion during February 2025 against the target of Rs983 billion, reflecting a shortfall of Rs133 billion.
  • Foreign office on Thursday addressed recent media reports suggesting a possible entry ban on Pakistani nationals by the United States, clarifying that no official indication of such a move has been received.
Morning News: World Bank signals economic stabilization in Pakistan - By Vector Research

Mar 3 2025


Vector Securities


  • The World Bank announced on Friday that economic stabilization is “taking hold” in Pakistan, marking an opportune moment to sign an agreement for a ten-year development plan. The plan will focus $20 billion in development lending to the cashstrapped country under the new Country Partnership Framework, which was announced last month.
  • Ambassador of the Republic of Uzbekistan to Pakistan, Alisher Tukhtaev has said that Pakistan and Uzbekistan are committed for achieving the target of $1 billion in the coming years, through enhance the transit and bilateral trade between both sides.
  • Pakistan has met the International Monetary Fund (IMF) condition of increasing the maturity profile of its debt through retiring the short-term borrowing and the government also hopes to strike a $1 billion foreign commercial loan deal in April.
Morning News: Uzbek-Pak ties get boost: Leaders eye $2bn trade - By Vector Research

Feb 27 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan and Uzbekistan on Wednesday vowed to take the volume of bilateral trade from current $400 million to $2 billion in the near future, besides agreeing to exploit the immense potential for cooperation in the fields of investment, connectivity and tourism.
  • Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, will embark on his maiden official visit to Pakistan on February 27 (Thursday) at the invitation of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. This visit underscores the deep-rooted fraternal ties between Pakistan and the UAE and reflects the shared commitment to further strengthen bilateral economic partnership.
  • The Securities & Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) has helped the government in conducting 18 auctions and raising a gross amount of Rs 2.25 trillion by issuing Ijarah Sukuk since December 2023.