Fertilizers: Urea sales to hit 5yr low in Mar-2025 - By JS Research

Apr 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Fertilizer sales during Mar-2025 are expected to remain abysmal amid suboptimal farm economics. Accordingly, Urea offtake is likely to witness a decline of 54% YoY, arriving at 308k tons during the month. Cumulatively, Urea off-take during 1QCY25 is estimated to clock in at 1.1mn tons, down 40% YoY. Likewise, DAP sales are likely to drop by 61% YoY during the month.
  • Company-wise, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to post Urea off-take of 187k tons, down 26% YoY in Mar-2025. This includes 19k tons of granular Urea (ex. FFBL). EFERT’s Urea sales volume likely to arrive at 59k tons, down 60% YoY. Similarly, Urea off-take for FATIMA is likely to hover around 37k tons, down 53% YoY.
  • Continued slowdown in Urea market is expected to keep inventory levels significantly high, arriving at 840k tons with EFERT being the most affected amid dull off-take, losing its market share by 6ppts YoY to 24% during 1QCY24. On the contrary, FFC continued to hold lesser inventory levels with market share increasing to 49% YoY (up 9ppts YoY)

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Market Wrap: Highlights of the day July 7, 2025 - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index surged 1.4% to an all-time intraday high of 133,862.01, driven by optimism over trade negotiations, macroeconomic stability, and a strong corporate earnings outlook. Falling inflation, strengthening FX reserves, and capital inflows are enhancing investor confidence, while higher taxes on alternative assets are redirecting capital into equities. With earnings season ahead and technical indicators breaking new ground, we expect the bullish momentum to persist in the near term, supported by favorable macro trends and reallocation from fixed-income instruments.
Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Carries KSE-100 Beyond 133,000 - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market continued its unrelenting bullish streak, surging past the 133,862 mark for the first time in history. This milestone rally was fueled by renewed investor confidence, driven by key trade developments and sector-specific momentum. Investor sentiment received a notable boost as Pakistan and the U.S. concluded a critical round of trade talks ahead of the July 9 deadline. While an official announcement is still awaited, early signs point to a favorable deal for Pakistan’s export sectors. Adding to the positive momentum, OGDC reported a production uplift following the successful installation of an ESP at Rajian-05, where it holds full ownership—further reinforcing its operational strength. The rally was led by the banking and fertilizer sectors, supported by expectations of strong upcoming results and favorable sectoral tailwinds. The KSE-100 index closed at 133,370 level, up 1,421 points in a robust session. Market activity remained upbeat, with 344 million shares traded on the KSE100 and total market volume reaching 915 million shares. Volume leaders included IMAGE (48mn), BOP (43mn), and WTL (37mn). While a short-term breather cannot be ruled out given the sharp upward trajectory, overall sentiment is expected to remain strong amid continued macroeconomic improvement. Investors are advised to stay focused on fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC enhances production at Rajian-05 well - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has enhanced production in Rajian-05 through installation of electrical submersible pumps (ESP). Following the workover, production has increased to 3.1kbpd of oil and 1.0mmcfd of gas, compared to 1.1k bpd/0.5mmcfd of oil/gas during 3QFY25. Notably, OGDC is the wholly-owned operator of the Rajian heavy oil field, where several workovers and artificial lift systems have been implemented at previous wells to expedite revival. We anticipate the aforementioned development to have an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR1.3 per sh for OGDC, respectively.
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
  • All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
  • For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 setting a record - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Bullish momentum continued for the KSE-100 index, which gained 1,262 points to close at 131,949. Trading volumes stood at 733mn shares, compared to 900mn shares previously. The index is likely to retest Friday’s high of 132,130; a break above this level could target 133,412, with potential to rise further toward 135,232. On the downside, support is seen in the 130,710-131,600 range. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. Immediate support and resistance are placed at 131,067 and 132,480, respectively.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations. While both sides have reached an understanding, a formal announcement is expected only after the US concludes similar ongoing negotiations with other trade partners. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline. The agreement, when signed, could lead to increased Pakistani imports of US goods — notably crude oil — and potential American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors.
  • The U.S. dollar hovered near its lowest since 2021 against the euro and the weakest since 2015 versus the Swiss franc on Monday, with traders alert for any trade-related headlines in the countdown to President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline. The dollar index , which measures the currency against those three rivals and three more major counterparts, was flat at 96.967, hovering above Tuesday’s nearly 3-1/2-year trough of 96.373.
  • US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he had signed 12 trade letters to be sent out next week ahead of an impending deadline for his tariffs to take effect. “I signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday, probably 12,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, adding that the countries to which the letters would be sent will be announced on the same day. His comments come days before steeper duties — which the president said on Thursday would range between 10 and 70 per cent — are set to take effect on dozens of economies, from Taiwan to the European Union.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By Vector Research

Jul 7 2025


Vector Securities


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations, reaching an understanding on a deal that could shape the future of the country’s key export sectors. The delegation arrived in Washington on Monday with the aim of finalising a long-term reciprocal tariff agreement that would prevent the re-imposition of a 29 per cent tariff on Pakistani exports — primarily textiles and agricultural products. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline.
  • Pakistan and Azerbaijan in a major development Friday signed a partnership agreement. The agreement for investment of a total of $2 billion by Azerbaijan in the economic sector of Pakistan.
  • Foreign exchange companies contributed around $450 million to remittance inflows during June, taking their total contribution to approximately $5 billion in FY25, according to the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP). “We sold about $450m to banks in June, highlighting our growing role in supporting the country’s exchange rate stability,” said Zafar Paracha, Secretary General of ECAP.
Morning News: Azerbaijan to invest $2bn in economic sector WE Research

Jul 7 2025



  • Pakistan and Azerbaijan have signed a significant $2 billion investment agreement, marking a new milestone in bilateral economic relations. The deal, signed in the presence of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, and Azerbaijani Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov, reflects growing investor confidence in Pakistan. It follows a cordial meeting between Prime Minister Sharif and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Khankandi, with a more detailed agreement to be finalized during the Azerbaijani President’s upcoming visit to Pakistan. Both countries committed to further enhancing cooperation across various sectors, including trade, investment, and climate issues, as emphasized by Prime Minister Sharif during his remarks in Shusha.
  • With less than a week before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have reached a preliminary understanding on a trade agreement aimed at securing Pakistan’s key export sectors, particularly textiles and agriculture, from the re-imposition of a 29% tariff. Led by Commerce Secretary Jawad Paal, the Pakistani delegation concluded four days of negotiations in Washington, with a formal announcement expected after the US finalizes talks with other trade partners. The proposed deal includes reciprocal tariff arrangements, increased Pakistani imports of US goods such as crude oil, and potential American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors—including projects like Reko Diq. Officials remain optimistic that the agreement will preserve Pakistan’s access to the US market and revitalize economic ties strained since the Trump-era tariffs.
  • Oil prices dropped over 1% after OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing a larger-than-expected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August, raising fears of oversupply. Brent crude fell to $67.50 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped to $65.68. The hike, up from prior monthly increases of 411,000bpd, reflects a more aggressive push for market share, with Saudi Arabia driving much of the actual output gains. OPEC+ cited strong global demand and low inventories as justification. Goldman Sachs expects a final 550,000bpd increase to be announced for September at the group’s August 3 meeting. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia raised prices for its flagship Arab Light crude in a show of confidence in demand. In a related development, U.S. President Trump indicated higher tariffs will be announced by July 9, with implementation set for August 1.
Market Wrap: Banking on Bulls: KSE-100 Hits a New Milestone - By HMFS Research

Jul 4 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) sustained its upward trajectory in today’s session, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index surging to a fresh intra-day high of 132,130 before closing at 131,949, up by a robust 1,262 points (+0.97%). The rally was supported by sustained investor interest—particularly in the banking sector—as participants continued to rotate into fundamentally sound, undervalued plays amid a supportive macroeconomic backdrop. Trading activity remained strong, with the All-Share Index posting a healthy turnover of 731mn shares, while KSE-100 volumes came in at 199mn shares, indicating broad-based participation. Top volume leaders included, WTL (58mn), BML (36mn), and TREET (30mn). The banking sector emerged as the primary driver of index gains, supported by attractive dividend yields, and compelling P/B valuations. The recent softening in Pakistan’s sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads has further improved investor sentiment by lowering perceived external risk, catalyzing flows into equities. While the momentum remains firmly intact, the market’s proximity to psychological resistance levels suggests room for near-term consolidation, especially as investors may opt to lock in recent gains. However, the medium-term narrative remains constructive, underpinned by prospects of continued IMF engagement, fiscal reforms, and easing external account pressures. We continue to advise investors to remain selective and focus on sectors with resilient fundamentals and earnings visibility. In the current phase of the cycle, valuation discipline, liquidity considerations, and macro-driven event positioning will remain critical in navigating market dynamics.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day June 26, 2025 - By JS Research

Jun 26 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The market opened on a positive note, touching an intraday high of 123,417 early in the session. However, broad-based profit-taking set in after two strong bullish days, which dragged the index into the red. Notably, the KSE-100 Index closed down by 715 points at 122,046. Total traded volume stood at 758mn shares, with top activity in PIBTL, WTL, PASL, SSGC and KEL. The recent rally was driven by strong buying in cement, banking, and fertilizer sectors. Near-term outlook remains positive, and dips may offer attractive entry opportunities.
Pakistan Power: Generation posts modest growth in May-2025 - By JS Research

Jun 25 2025


JS Global Capital


  • As per latest data released by National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA), Power generation during May-2025 clocked in at 12,755GWh, with a modest growth of 1% YoY. Cumulatively, power generation during 11MFY25 remained relatively flat with a marginal dip of 0.3% YoY, clocking-in at ~113,416GWh.
  • On a QoQ basis, generation increased by 21%, mainly due to higher summer demand, a reduction in tariffs, and increased industrial consumption from a shift to grid electricity. Among the energy mix, hydel energy remained dominant, accounting for 38% during May compared to a contribution of 22% during the last month.
  •  Average cost of generation for May-2025 stood at Rs7.5/kWh, significantly down by 18%YoY. Likewise, on a sequential basis, average cost dipped 16%.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day June 23, 2025 - By JS Research

Jun 23 2025


JS Global Capital


  • PSX suffers heavy losses amid sharp sell-off, opening with a steep 2,000- point gap down amid panic selling. The index failed to recover throughout the session, touching a low of 115,887, eventually closed with a massive loss of 3,856 points, ending the day at 116,167. Total traded volume stood at 595mn shares, with top activity in WTL, SSGC, PASL, KEL and KOSM. The sharp decline reflects heightened fear driven by uncertainty and external pressures. We advise investors to remain cautious, focusing on risk management and selective accumulation.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day June 16, 2025 - By JS Research

Jun 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The market opened on a positive note, touching an intraday high of 122,903, but failed to sustain momentum. It eventually closed at 122,225, as profit-taking emerged later in the session. On the economic front, the State Bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 11%, aligning with expectations. Trading activity was dominated by small-cap stocks, reflecting short-term speculative interest. Market volume stood at 1,224mn shares, with top activity in WTL, PASL, FCSC, KOSM and MDTL. We advise investors to maintain a cautious stance and avoid aggressive exposure for now. Risk management remains key amid geopolitical uncertainty and macro developments.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day June 2, 2025 - By JS Research

Jun 2 2025


JS Global Capital


  • PSX opened on a positive note and rallied to an intraday high of 120,591 points. Selling pressure dragged the index down to close at 118,878 (down 813 points). On the economic front, CPI data was recorded at 3.5% YoY, providing further cues to market participants. Market volume stood at 498mn shares, with notable activity in DCL, ICIBL, KEL, WTL and FFL. Looking ahead, we expect market pressure to persist in the near term; however, this may present a buying opportunity in select sectors. Investors are advised to accumulate fundamentally strong stocks in the cement, automobile, and fertilizer sectors on dips.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day May 26, 2025 - By JS Research

May 26 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index fell 0.8% to an intraday low of 118,150, as investor sentiment weakened due to the government's delay in presenting the federal budget and ongoing uncertainty surrounding IMF fiscal targets. The postponement of Budget 2025–26 and unresolved negotiations with the IMF are driving the risk-off behavior. Market direction remains contingent on clarity from upcoming IMF discussions and the budget announcement; volatility is likely to persist until fiscal policy details are finalized.
Pakistan Auto: Auto volumes poised for modest uptick in Apr-2025 - By JS Research

May 12 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Apr-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd, representing 84% of the four-wheeler market, to post a 4% YoY volumetric growth, reaching 9,466 units.
  • The modest growth is likely to be driven by notable improvement in volumes of HCAR and INDU, with a significant growth of 70% YoY and 58% YoY, respectively. On the contrary, we expect Pak Suzuki (market leader) to report a negative growth of 25% YoY. Cumulatively, we expect our sample to post a decent growth of 37% YoY during 10MFY25.
  • Auto-financing continues to rise amid ongoing monetary easing, up 7.5% YoY during Mar-2025. We believe the prospects remain positive with momentum likely to continue in upcoming months
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day April 21, 2025 - By JS Research

Apr 21 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Bulls dominated the trading floor today as investors capitalized on attractive valuations, with the benchmark index closing up by 1,068 points (+0.9%) at 118,383 points. Majority of buying was seen in banking stocks where MEBL, MCB, and UBL alone contributed 648 points to the index gains. Looking forward we expect some corporate results based rally in the market while budget related updates and upcoming monetary policy would also drive market sentiments. Therefore, investors are advised to adopt a ‘Buy on dips’ stance with focus on Oil & Gas, Automobile, and Cement sectors.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day April 9, 2025 - By JS Research

Apr 9 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced a sharp decline as the benchmark index dropped by 2,641 points intraday, closing 1,379 points down at 114,153. This downturn stemmed from escalating political uncertainty, concerns over economic reforms, which has created tension in global markets too. The market breached several psychological thresholds, amplifying investor anxiety. The market's trajectory will remain volatile until there is greater clarity on both political and economic fronts. Stakeholders should approach with caution amidst these uncertainties.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day April 9, 2025 - By JS Research

Apr 9 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced a sharp decline as the benchmark index dropped by 2,641 points intraday, closing 1,379 points down at 114,153. This downturn stemmed from escalating political uncertainty, concerns over economic reforms, which has created tension in global markets too. The market breached several psychological thresholds, amplifying investor anxiety. The market's trajectory will remain volatile until there is greater clarity on both political and economic fronts. Stakeholders should approach with caution amidst these uncertainties.