Bank Alfalah (BAFL): 1Q2025 EPS at Rs4.49, up 65% QoQ (Earnings lower than industry expectations) - By Topline Reseach

Apr 17 2025


Topline Securities


  • Bank Alfalah (BAFL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded consolidated earnings of Rs7.1bn (EPS of Rs4.49), down 29% YoY while up 53% QoQ.
  • Alongside the results, the bank also announced a first interim cash dividend of Rs2.5/share, which came in higher than expectations.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) for 1Q2025 settled at Rs33.6bn, up 6% YoY and 5% QoQ, driven by (1) higher asset yields and (
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 Earnings Call Key Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Apr 24 2025


Taurus Securities


  • PAT for the quarter clocked-in at PKR 9.9Bn. Wherein, net interest income was up 6%YoY as the impact of lower interest rates was offset by building fixed-rate PIB book and growth in current accounts. Non-markup income was up 13%YoY. However, fee income came under pressure due to revision in the commission structure affecting the Bank i.e. home remittances. Operating cost was up significantly owing to surge in marketing expenses mainly and branch expansions. Finally, the Bank booked a net reversal of PKR 468Mn in provisions due to strong recoveries and reversals during the period.
  • Advances were up 29%YoY with a market share of 6.5%. NPL ratio stood at 4.4%. Coverage was recorded at 113%. The Bank aims to continue lending with an ADR of ~45%. Overall, asset quality remains robust.
  • Deposits clocked-in at slightly over PKR 2Trn, resulting in a market share of 6.1%. Current deposits were up 9%YoY, amounting to PKR 853Bn. The Bank’s CA ratio stands at 42% and is likely to improve further during the year. BAFL is targeting deposits growth of ~10-15% for CY25. 20 branches opened in 1QCY25 and 30 more planned for rest of CY25.
Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

Apr 24 2025


AKD Securities


  • Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL) held its analyst briefing today, where-in the management discussed the following:
  • Bank's profit for 1QCY25 stood at PkR7.0bn (EPS: PkR4.5), down 29%YoY, due to lower mark-up earned and higher non-markup expenses. Alongside the result, bank also announced an interim cash dividend of PkR2.5/sh.
  • NII recorded a modest 6%YoY growth in 1QCY25 to PkR31.3bn, primarily due to higher investment book, up 9.4%YoY, and net advances, up 30.6% YoY, compared to SPLY
Bank Alfalah (BAFL): 1Q2025 EPS at Rs4.49, up 65% QoQ (Earnings lower than industry expectations) - By Topline Reseach

Apr 17 2025


Topline Securities


  • Bank Alfalah (BAFL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded consolidated earnings of Rs7.1bn (EPS of Rs4.49), down 29% YoY while up 53% QoQ.
  • Alongside the results, the bank also announced a first interim cash dividend of Rs2.5/share, which came in higher than expectations.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) for 1Q2025 settled at Rs33.6bn, up 6% YoY and 5% QoQ, driven by (1) higher asset yields and (
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS clocks-in at PKR 4.5; PAT down 29%YoY/up 52%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 4.5. 1QCY25 PAT down 29%YoY. BAFL also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.5/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Up 6%YoY/5%QoQ, despite pressure on yields, on the back of significant decrease in the cost of funds which can attributed to the build-up in current accounts during the quarter. To note BAFL’s CA ratio is up 4ppts QoQ with current accounts as of Mar’25 amounting to PKR 914Bn.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 14%YoY/Down 21%QoQ. Sequential decline is owing to a surprising 16%QoQ fall in fee and commissions income, along with a 67%QoQ plunge in capital gains.
Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL): 1QCY25 EPS to clock-in at PKR 3.3; PAT down 47%YoY/up 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 16 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: Thursday, April 17, 2025
  • 1QCY25 EPS: PKR 3.3. 1QCY25 PAT down 47%YoY. BAFL is also expected to announce a cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): We anticipate net interest income to post a drop of 9%YoY/11%QoQ mainly on account of falling yields on investments and re-pricing of the loan book; partially offset by a lower cost of funds due to the rate cut in Jan’25 and the impact of revised MDR regime coming into effect Jan’25 onwards
Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL): CY24 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

Mar 6 2025


AKD Securities


  • Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL) held its analyst briefing yesterday, where-in the management discussed the following:
  • Bank’s profit for CY24 stood at PkR38.3bn (EPS: PkR24.3), up 5%YoY, due to higher Non-Interest income and low credit allowance charge.
  • Along with result the bank has announced final payout of PkR2.5/sh, taking full year payout to PkR8.5/sh
Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL): 4QCY24 Earnings Call Key Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Mar 6 2025


Taurus Securities


  • The Bank posted PBT of PKR 83.1Bn and PAT of PKR 38.3Bn for CY24, on the back of volumetric growth. Wherein, advances clocked in at PKR 1.2Trn (8.1% market share); Deposits stood at PKR 2.1Trn (6.4% market share); and Current Deposits stood at PKR 817Bn (6.7% market share), respectively. CAR as of Dec’24 stands at 17.96%. ROE contracted to ~29% for the year.
  • In terms of products, SME Lending clocked-in at PKR 52Bn (7% market share). Meanwhile, Consumer Lending stood at PKR 107Bn with BAFL having Credit Card, Auto, Personal and Home Loan portfolio of PKR 32Bn (2nd highest), PKR 41Bn (2nd highest), PKR 11Bn (2nd highest), and PKR 23Bn (highest), respectively. Home Remittances market share was 15.6%. Additionally, the Bank also generated over USD 7Bn in trade volume during the year. Digital throughput of PKR 9.5Trn.
  • Deposits growth was restricted to 2%YoY, with net advances increasing 51%YoY as the Bank focused on meeting the ADR targets. Nevertheless, ADR tax was abolished by the year-end with the corporate tax rate being enhanced by 5% for the Bank. NPL ratio dropped to 3.7%, while coverage stood at 110.7%. CASA stood at 77.1%. Current account ratio stood at 38%.
Bank Alfalah (BAFL): 4Q2024 EPS at Rs2.94, down 65% QoQ (Earnings lower than industry expectations) - By Topline Research

Jan 30 2025


Topline Securities


  • Bank Alfalah (BAFL) announced its 4Q2024 result today, where the bank recorded consolidated earnings of Rs4.64bn (EPS of Rs2.94), down 49% YoY and 65% QoQ
  • The result came lower than industry expectations due higher than estimated operating expenses.
  • Alongside the result, bank has announced cash dividend of Rs2.5/share taking 2024 dividend to Rs8.5/share. 4Q2024 dividend was also above expectations.
Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL): Earnings Miss on higher OPEX - By IIS Research

Jan 30 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Bank Alfalah has announced 4QCY24 result, where the bank has posted unconsolidated earnings of PKR 2.96/sh, down by 49% YoY and 64% on QoQ basis. The result is below our expectations mainly because of higher-thanexpected increase in operating expenses. The bank has announced final cash dividend of PKR 2.5/sh against our expectation of PKR2/sh, taking full year dividend to PKR 8.5/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) down 10% YoY and 6% QoQ, mainly due to lower advances income as banks lent cheaper to meet the ADR target, abolished in late December, and larger repricing has already been reflected in 2Q/3Q.
  • Non-markup income increase by 23% and down by 9% QoQ. The YoY increase is because of 2.5x increase in gain on sale securities and QoQ decline is because of lower FX income amid stable PKR/USD. Furthermore, fee income also down by 2% on YoY basis and up by 6% on QoQ basis.
Bank Al Falah Limited (BAFL): 4QCY24 EPS arrives at PKR 2.9; PAT down 46%YoY/65%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Jan 30 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 4QCY24 EPS: PKR 2.9. 4QCY24 PAT down 46%YoY. CY24 EPS: PKR 25.3. CY24 PAT up 10%YoY – below expectations. BAFL also announced a final DPS of PKR 2.50, taking the full year payout to PKR 8.5/sh.
  • Net Interest Income (NII): Down 10%YoY/6%QoQ amid falling net spread due to re-pricing of the asset side in response to the aggressive cut in the benchmark policy rate by the SBP; offset by falling cost of funds to an extent.
  • Non-Markup Income (NMI): Up 17%YoY/Down 11%QoQ, driven by 7% QoQ growth in fee and commissions. However, the highlight was the booking of hefty capital gains as anticipated amounting to PKR 5.3Bn in 4QCY24 (PKR 15.4Bn in CY24).
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
  • All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
  • For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 setting a record - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Bullish momentum continued for the KSE-100 index, which gained 1,262 points to close at 131,949. Trading volumes stood at 733mn shares, compared to 900mn shares previously. The index is likely to retest Friday’s high of 132,130; a break above this level could target 133,412, with potential to rise further toward 135,232. On the downside, support is seen in the 130,710-131,600 range. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. Immediate support and resistance are placed at 131,067 and 132,480, respectively.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations. While both sides have reached an understanding, a formal announcement is expected only after the US concludes similar ongoing negotiations with other trade partners. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline. The agreement, when signed, could lead to increased Pakistani imports of US goods — notably crude oil — and potential American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors.
  • The U.S. dollar hovered near its lowest since 2021 against the euro and the weakest since 2015 versus the Swiss franc on Monday, with traders alert for any trade-related headlines in the countdown to President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline. The dollar index , which measures the currency against those three rivals and three more major counterparts, was flat at 96.967, hovering above Tuesday’s nearly 3-1/2-year trough of 96.373.
  • US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he had signed 12 trade letters to be sent out next week ahead of an impending deadline for his tariffs to take effect. “I signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday, probably 12,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, adding that the countries to which the letters would be sent will be announced on the same day. His comments come days before steeper duties — which the president said on Thursday would range between 10 and 70 per cent — are set to take effect on dozens of economies, from Taiwan to the European Union.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By Vector Research

Jul 7 2025


Vector Securities


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations, reaching an understanding on a deal that could shape the future of the country’s key export sectors. The delegation arrived in Washington on Monday with the aim of finalising a long-term reciprocal tariff agreement that would prevent the re-imposition of a 29 per cent tariff on Pakistani exports — primarily textiles and agricultural products. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline.
  • Pakistan and Azerbaijan in a major development Friday signed a partnership agreement. The agreement for investment of a total of $2 billion by Azerbaijan in the economic sector of Pakistan.
  • Foreign exchange companies contributed around $450 million to remittance inflows during June, taking their total contribution to approximately $5 billion in FY25, according to the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP). “We sold about $450m to banks in June, highlighting our growing role in supporting the country’s exchange rate stability,” said Zafar Paracha, Secretary General of ECAP.
Morning News: Azerbaijan to invest $2bn in economic sector WE Research

Jul 7 2025



  • Pakistan and Azerbaijan have signed a significant $2 billion investment agreement, marking a new milestone in bilateral economic relations. The deal, signed in the presence of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, and Azerbaijani Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov, reflects growing investor confidence in Pakistan. It follows a cordial meeting between Prime Minister Sharif and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Khankandi, with a more detailed agreement to be finalized during the Azerbaijani President’s upcoming visit to Pakistan. Both countries committed to further enhancing cooperation across various sectors, including trade, investment, and climate issues, as emphasized by Prime Minister Sharif during his remarks in Shusha.
  • With less than a week before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have reached a preliminary understanding on a trade agreement aimed at securing Pakistan’s key export sectors, particularly textiles and agriculture, from the re-imposition of a 29% tariff. Led by Commerce Secretary Jawad Paal, the Pakistani delegation concluded four days of negotiations in Washington, with a formal announcement expected after the US finalizes talks with other trade partners. The proposed deal includes reciprocal tariff arrangements, increased Pakistani imports of US goods such as crude oil, and potential American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors—including projects like Reko Diq. Officials remain optimistic that the agreement will preserve Pakistan’s access to the US market and revitalize economic ties strained since the Trump-era tariffs.
  • Oil prices dropped over 1% after OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing a larger-than-expected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August, raising fears of oversupply. Brent crude fell to $67.50 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped to $65.68. The hike, up from prior monthly increases of 411,000bpd, reflects a more aggressive push for market share, with Saudi Arabia driving much of the actual output gains. OPEC+ cited strong global demand and low inventories as justification. Goldman Sachs expects a final 550,000bpd increase to be announced for September at the group’s August 3 meeting. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia raised prices for its flagship Arab Light crude in a show of confidence in demand. In a related development, U.S. President Trump indicated higher tariffs will be announced by July 9, with implementation set for August 1.
Market Wrap: Banking on Bulls: KSE-100 Hits a New Milestone - By HMFS Research

Jul 4 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) sustained its upward trajectory in today’s session, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index surging to a fresh intra-day high of 132,130 before closing at 131,949, up by a robust 1,262 points (+0.97%). The rally was supported by sustained investor interest—particularly in the banking sector—as participants continued to rotate into fundamentally sound, undervalued plays amid a supportive macroeconomic backdrop. Trading activity remained strong, with the All-Share Index posting a healthy turnover of 731mn shares, while KSE-100 volumes came in at 199mn shares, indicating broad-based participation. Top volume leaders included, WTL (58mn), BML (36mn), and TREET (30mn). The banking sector emerged as the primary driver of index gains, supported by attractive dividend yields, and compelling P/B valuations. The recent softening in Pakistan’s sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads has further improved investor sentiment by lowering perceived external risk, catalyzing flows into equities. While the momentum remains firmly intact, the market’s proximity to psychological resistance levels suggests room for near-term consolidation, especially as investors may opt to lock in recent gains. However, the medium-term narrative remains constructive, underpinned by prospects of continued IMF engagement, fiscal reforms, and easing external account pressures. We continue to advise investors to remain selective and focus on sectors with resilient fundamentals and earnings visibility. In the current phase of the cycle, valuation discipline, liquidity considerations, and macro-driven event positioning will remain critical in navigating market dynamics.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index closed the session on a strong note, gaining 1,262 points to settle at 131,949. Broad-based buying was seen across key sectors, with Autos, banks, and Power leading the charge. Investor sentiment remained upbeat, supported by improved macros and anticipation of further monetary easing. Looking forward, we have a favorable view on the market in the near term, backed by favorable liquidity conditions, positive policy cues, and foreign interest returning to key sectors. However, intermittent consolidation cannot be ruled out as the index approaches resistance levels.
Fertilizers: Sales to recover in June-2025; albeit inventory level remains high - By JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • As per provisional figures, Urea off-take during Jun-2025 is expected to clock in at 580k tons, arriving at a growth of 20% YoY/ 39% MoM. Cumulatively, Urea off-take is likely to post a negative growth of 23% YoY during 1HCY25. On the other hand, DAP off-take is likely to fall 15% YoY during the month.
  • Company-wise, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to post Urea off-take of 269k tons in Jun-2025, up 4% YoY. This includes 51k tons of granular Urea. Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is likely to post growth 32% YoY, arriving at 205k tons. In terms of market share, EFERT Urea share improved by 3ppts YoY to 35%, while FFC’s share dipped 8ppts YoY during the month.
  • Urea inventory is expected to remain elevated at around 1.3mn tons by the end of 1HCY25. Assuming capacity utilization remains stable at current levels, allowance of export can be a key trigger in our view, helping to mitigate inventory buildup despite the anticipated increase in local sales during 2HCY25.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue - By JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index witnessed a volatile session to close at 130,687, up 343 points DoD. Volumes stood at 900mn shares compared to 1,026mn shares traded in the last session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 131,325 with a break above targeting 132,134, which can extend to 133,412. However, any downside will find support in the range of 129,050-129,870 levels. The RSI and the MACD are heading up, supporting a positive outlook. We advise investors to 'Buy on dips', keeping stoploss below 128,616. The support and resistance levels are placed at 129,867 and 131,415, respectively.
Bank Alfalah (BAFL): 1Q2025 EPS at Rs4.49, up 65% QoQ (Earnings lower than industry expectations) - By Topline Reseach

Apr 17 2025


Topline Securities


  • Bank Alfalah (BAFL) announced its 1Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded consolidated earnings of Rs7.1bn (EPS of Rs4.49), down 29% YoY while up 53% QoQ.
  • Alongside the results, the bank also announced a first interim cash dividend of Rs2.5/share, which came in higher than expectations.
  • Net Interest Income (NII) for 1Q2025 settled at Rs33.6bn, up 6% YoY and 5% QoQ, driven by (1) higher asset yields and (
Systems Limited (SYS): 4Q2024 EPS at Rs6.92, up by 31% YoY – Earnings lower than expectations - By Topline Reseach

Mar 24 2025


Topline Securities


  • Systems Limited (SYS) announced its 4Q2024 result wherein it posted a consolidated PAT of Rs2.03bn (EPS of Rs6.92) up by 31% YoY and down by 7% QoQ. The result came lower than expectations due to lower-than-expected gross margins and higher distribution costs.
  • Alongside the result SYS announced a DPS of Rs6.00 which was in-line with expectations. Company also announced a Stock Split in the ratio of 5 shares for every 1 share held.
  • Gross margins for 4Q2024 clocked in at 23.6% vs 25.3% in 3Q2024 and 19.7% in 4Q2023. In 4Q2024 there is higher one-off trading revenue which has lower margins and has impacted overall average margins
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