Commercial Bank: 1QCY25 Universe earnings to grow 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Apr 18 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect 1QCY25 TSL Banking Universe earnings to grow 13% QoQ on account of lower cost of funds and provisions. Wherein, UBL and BAFL have already announced their results posting 39% QoQ growth and 52%QoQ growth in profitability, respectively. On an annualized basis, we anticipate earnings to go up 5%.
  • During the period, the State Bank of Pakistan cut its policy rate by 100bps to 12%. Resultantly, the industry spread on outstanding loans and deposits is estimated to have averaged ~6.50% as compared an average of 5.39% in the previous quarter—on the back of the re-pricing lag between the assets and the liability side.
  • Nevertheless, we anticipate a cumulative re-pricing of ~900bps in asset yields to have taken place by the period when compared to the corresponding period last year. Hence, affecting the interest incomes, specially on the investment books.

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Oil Marketing Companies: OMC sector earnings to surge 41%YoY in 4QFY25E - By AKD Research

Jul 17 2025


AKD Securities


  • OMC players under our AKD coverage universe i.e. PSO and APL are anticipated to report a combined NPAT increase of 41%YoY/16%QoQ during 4QFY25E.
  • For the full year, earnings for the AKD OMC universe are anticipated to grow by a modest 3%YoY in FY25E.
  • Our coverage universe is expected to record a 31%YoY decline in finance costs during 4QFY25E, where-in full year finance costs are also expected to shrink by 32%YoY.
Fertilizer: Offtakes pick up as Kharif kicks in - By AKD Research

Jul 17 2025


AKD Securities


  • Fertilizer offtakes witnessed an improvement for the second consecutive month during CY25, driven by discount offerings by companies, availability of interest-free loans, and lower channel inventory.
  • Urea and CAN sales improved by 21%/28%YoY, while, DAP & NP sales declined by 7%/13% YoY, respectively.
  • We expect urea sales to recover going forward, with Kharif season offtakes projected to increase by 15%YoY, driven by lower channel inventory and price discounts.
Market Wrap: June Sees Recovery, Inventory Concerns Persist - By HMFS Research

Jul 17 2025


HMFS Research


  • Fertilizer offtake continued its seasonal ascent in June 2025, propelled by active Kharif cultivation, consistent irrigation flows, and ongoing loan disbursements under the Kissan Card scheme. Total nutrient offtake climbed 11% y/y to 407kt, supported by a 16% rise in nitrogen and a 41% surge in potash, though phosphate offtake slipped 7% y/y. Urea volumes jumped 21% y/y and 39% m/m to 582kt, while DAP offtake softened by 7% y/y to 115kt, though still up 21% over May, indicating staggered procurement patterns amid uncertain demand.
Pakistan Cement: 4QFY25E—Profitability to decrease 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Jul 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect TSL cement universe PAT to clock-in at PKR 22.6Bn, down 13%QoQ on the back of drop in domestic dispatches by 9%QoQ as construction demand remained subdued, resulting in lower domestic utilization (down 3pptsQoQ to 41% in 4QFY25) and regional conflict (Indo-Pak escalation during Apr’25) which forced companies to focus on exports. Even though, exports went up 55%QoQ in 4QFY25. Profitability is likely to be affected due to lower margins on exports.
  • Going forward, we expect some pressure on the utilization amid uncertainty revolving around anticipated lower exports after the commencement of US tariffs. However, construction sector is expected to revive on the back of favorable budgetary measures (FY26) as the Government announced PKR 10Bn (PKR 5Bn Mark-up subsidy and PKR 5Bn housing subsidy) subsidy to support construction and real estate sectors in FY26.
  • TSL Cement universe gross margins are expected to arrive at 32%, likely to remain flat compared to the previous quarter as surge in the retail prices in both North and South regions (up 3%QoQ each) may be off-set by significant rise in exports. To note, capacity utilization in 4QFY25 increased merely to 53% compared to 52% during the previous quarter.
Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR): Stepping in to the Hybrid space - By JS Research

Jul 17 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Honda Atlas Cars (HCAR) held its analyst briefing yesterday to discuss MY25 results and outlook of the company. To recall, the company reported an MY25 EPS of ~Rs19, up 16% YoY, driven by a 42% surge in revenue on the back of a 53% YoY increase in car sales.
  • Management discussed the recent launch of HCAR’s first hybrid electric vehicle (HR-V HEV), noting that test drives are now open to consumers and expressing confidence in a strong market reception.
  • Further, the management also shared that the recently announced FY26 relaxation in duties on imported vehicles are expected to have minimal impact on HCAR’s sales, as 90% of imports fall within the 1000cc or below segment. Additionally, they anticipate the auto industry to grow by 40% YoY in FY26.
Morning News: PKR 50 bn extra subsidies to power consumers: Planning ministry defies ECC decision: - By Alpha - Akseer Research

Jul 17 2025


Alpha Capital


  • The Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives has reportedly declined to comply with the Economic Coordination Committee’s decision to allocate PKR 50 bn in additional subsidies to power consumers over a three-month period.
  • HSD prices have risen by PKR 11.37 per litre for July 16-31, 2025 fortnight. This increase is largely attributed to an exchange rate adjustment granted to PSO while petroleum levy (PL) and climate support levy (CSL) have been kept unchanged.
  • The Finance Act 2025 has significantly expanded the definition of tax fraud, prompting considerable unrest and concern among the business community. This extensive revision has raised alarm bells, as many fear it may impose stricter regulations and heavier penalties, potentially impacting their operations and compliance efforts.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation expected - By JS Research

Jul 17 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index witnessed a volatile session to close at 136,380, up 440 points DoD. Volumes stood at 706mn shares compared to 879mn shares traded in the last session. The index is expected to face resistance in the range of 137,230-137,750 where a break above is needed to refresh upward momentum. Meanwhile, any downside will be tested between 135,050 and 135,550 levels as a fall below can initiate a corrective trend with 132,589 as the downside target. The indicators are mixed, signaling no clear trading view. We recommend investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance are placed at 135,538 and 137,227, respectively.
Morning News: US eyes Pakistan portsector in push to deepen commercial ties - By Vector Research

Jul 17 2025


Vector Securities


  • More than 65 US companies took part in a landmark webinar on Tuesday aimed at exploring commercial opportunities in Pakistan’s maritime sector, signalling growing American interest in the country’s ports infrastructure.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has asked the Ministry of Finance and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to sit together and find a way forward for financing the Pakistan Remittances Initiative (PRI) - a scheme for facilitating remittances through formal channels. The committee observed that the remittances’ reward paid to banks and exchange companies facilitating overseas inflows through official channels is turning to be a new circular debt.
  • After a brief pause, the Pakistani rupee continued its decline against the US dollar on Wednesday, falling by 0.10% in the inter-bank market amid increasing import payments, profit repatriation by multinational companies, and a cautious sentiment ahead of upcoming external debt repayments. The currency closed at 284.96, marking a depreciation of 29 paisa from Tuesday's closing rate of 284.67.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day July 16, 2025 - By JS Research

Jul 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index traded near high records today, rising 1,292 points to an intraday high of 137,232 amid strong corporate earnings and optimism over a potential Moody’s ratings upgrade. Investor sentiment was buoyed by positive economic signals, including falling inflation, a stable rupee, and rising foreign reserves. Finance Minister Aurangzeb’s meeting with Moody’s further reinforced confidence. While some profit-taking capped gains, the medium-term outlook remains bullish, supported by fiscal reforms, strong banking sector growth, and improving macroeconomic indicators.
Market Wrap: Profit-Taking Caps Rally; KSE-100 Closes Up 440 Points - By HMFS Research

Jul 16 2025


HMFS Research


  • The benchmark KSE-100 index maintained its bullish momentum in early trade, rallying by as much as 1,292 points. However, the rally lost steam toward the close as profit-taking set in, particularly in the banking sector, but still closed firmly in the green at 136,380 level—marking a net gain of 440 points. Sectoral performance remained mixed. Banking stocks faced notable selling pressure, contributing to the late-session pullback, while fertilizer stocks closed higher, supported by improved monthly offtake figures. Overall market participation remained moderate, with 273 million shares traded on the KSE-100 and 702 million across the broader market. Top volume leaders included PIBTL (91mn shares), FDPL (41mn shares), and DHPL (37mn shares). While the broader trend remains upward, near-term volatility may persist as investors continue to book gains at elevated levels. Sector-specific developments, corporate earnings announcements, and upcoming economic data are likely to guide market direction in the coming sessions. Investors are encouraged to exercise caution and maintain a focus on fundamentally strong stocks with long-term growth potential.
Pakistan Cement: 4QFY25E—Profitability to decrease 13%QoQ - By Taurus Research

Jul 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect TSL cement universe PAT to clock-in at PKR 22.6Bn, down 13%QoQ on the back of drop in domestic dispatches by 9%QoQ as construction demand remained subdued, resulting in lower domestic utilization (down 3pptsQoQ to 41% in 4QFY25) and regional conflict (Indo-Pak escalation during Apr’25) which forced companies to focus on exports. Even though, exports went up 55%QoQ in 4QFY25. Profitability is likely to be affected due to lower margins on exports.
  • Going forward, we expect some pressure on the utilization amid uncertainty revolving around anticipated lower exports after the commencement of US tariffs. However, construction sector is expected to revive on the back of favorable budgetary measures (FY26) as the Government announced PKR 10Bn (PKR 5Bn Mark-up subsidy and PKR 5Bn housing subsidy) subsidy to support construction and real estate sectors in FY26.
  • TSL Cement universe gross margins are expected to arrive at 32%, likely to remain flat compared to the previous quarter as surge in the retail prices in both North and South regions (up 3%QoQ each) may be off-set by significant rise in exports. To note, capacity utilization in 4QFY25 increased merely to 53% compared to 52% during the previous quarter.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25E earnings to jump on higher off-take - By Taurus Research

Jul 10 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect Fertilizer players in our universe to witness robust surge in profitability on the back of significant increase in offtake during 2QCY25 i.e. Urea up 14%QoQ and DAP up 99% QoQ, attributed to rise in demand for fertilizer products at the start of the Kharif Season 2025 amid facilitating farmers with Kissan Cards, mitigating wheat crisis and stable fertilizer prices.
  • On the Company front, EFERT’s market share went up by 32% (up 8pptsYoY) in 2QCY25 due to base effect as the Company had undergone scheduled plant maintenance activities for 2 months during 2QCY24, resulting in rise in Urea off-take (up 9pptsYoY to 34%). Further, disparity in gas pricing mechanism has still put significant pressure on the margins of EFERT, forcing to sell Urea at a discounted price (discount of PKR 100-150 per bag started in Jan’25). Further, FFC has also reduced Urea prices by PKR 40/bag effective from May’25.
  • FFC’s net sales to clock-in at ~PKR 68Bn in 2QCY25, up 7%QoQ on account of increase in overall off-take by 17%QoQ (Urea and DAP off-take were up by 9% and 66%, respectively). Gross margins to hover around 38% in 2QCY25, up 2pptsQoQ. Distribution and admin expense to increase 2%QoQ, in-line with the increase in sales volumes. Finance cost to remain on the lower side (down 16%QoQ) amid deleveraging of FFBL and ongoing monetary easing cycle.
Cement: June’25 dispatches down 26%MoM - By Taurus Research

Jul 3 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Total Cement dispatches in June’25 down 26%MoM on the back of lower construction demand and rise in geo-political conflict, declining exports i.e. domestic and export sales dropped by 29% MoM and 13%MoM, respectively. On a YoY basis, total domestic sales were down 16% in June’25 as higher taxes along with higher FED and increase in the cost of construction materials has reduced construction demand compared to the SPLY. However, exports during June’25 surged massively by 82%YoY on account of increase in clinker and cement demand from the regional/exporting countries during the period.
  • North-based domestic sales decreased 26%MoM in June’25 due to decline in the construction activities amid bad weather conditions and lower construction demand. Wherein, export sales were down 14%MoM amid escalation of war in the MiddleEast. South-based domestic sales dropped significantly by 44% MoM in June’25. On the export front, South-based exports were down 13%MoM, respectively.
  • On a YoY basis, North-based domestic sales down 14%YoY in June’25 due to lower construction demand i.e. impact of higher taxes and surge in construction material cost. However, Northbased exports were up significantly by 91%YoY, reflecting higher demand from the export regions. On the South front, domestic sales during June’25 decreased by 23%YoY. However, export sales surged by 79%YoY to 0.65Mn tons, respectively.
Economy: Jun’25 Volumes surge 2%MoM, up 8%YoY - By Taurus Research

Jul 2 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Petroleum products off-take for Jun’25 stood at approximately 1.56Mn tons, reflecting a monthly growth of 2%. Similarly, on a yearly basis, sales were up 8%YoY. The increase in volumes on a MoM basis was primarily driven by lower POL prices along with controlled smuggling activities.
  • Specifically, volumes for MS increased 5%MoM and 5%YoY. HSD volumes grew 9%YoY growth but declined 8%MoM. However, FO sales increased 62%MoM but increased 22%YoY, primarily due to low RLNG consumption and excess of LNG supply and heightened electricity demand.
  • Moreover, FY25 saw a surge in POL sales which were up 7%YoY primarily due to higher demand for MS, HSD, HOBC and KERO, up 6%, 10%, 1.7x and 19%YoY, respectively.
Attock Cement Pakistan Limited (ACPL): Strong interest from potential buyers… Dec’25 TP of PKR 352, warrants a ‘BUY’ - By Taurus Research

Jun 30 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We reiterate our ’BUY’ rating for Attock Cement Pakistan Limited (ACPL) with a Dec’25 target price of PKR 352/sh. offering an upside of 26% over the last day’s close. Our investment thesis primarily focuses on the Company’s strategic business advantages like: i) Presence in the South (2nd largest producer in the South) and the export market (15% share of Pakistan’s cement exports); and ii) Cost advantages (low dependence on the National Grid); coupled with an attractive valuation.
  • In addition, the location of the Company’s plant offers it immense strategic advantages like proximity to major projects like CPEC-Phase-II, Reko Diq and other mining & highway projects etc.; specially in the context of Balochistan, along with access to sea ports like Karachi, Port Qasim and Gwadar. Other triggers also include savings due to lower finance costs, going forward.
  • Moreover, recently the Company has also attracted strong interest from potential buyers in light of its sponsor’s intentions of a potential sale of the Company. The latter can be a strong catalyst for the current share price of the Company as it continues to trade at a massive discount on a replacement cost basis. Hence, a potential acquisition offer may be well above the current price.
TRG Pakistan Limited (TRG): 9MFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Jun 25 2025


Taurus Securities


  • The principal activity of TRG Pakistan is to manage a portfolio of investments in the business process outsourcing sector through its associate, The Resource Group International Limited (TRGIL). TRG Pakistan invests in the Technology, IT enabled services, and medicare insurance sectors. Its clients include companies from The Global 100. Through TRGIL, TRG Pakistan owns a 13% stake in both Afiniti and IBEX. Afiniti focuses on AI-based contact center optimization and IBEX specializes in outsourced customer interactions. Afiniti is controlled by Vista Lend Consortium. IBEX was listed on NASDAQ in 2020.
  • IBEX recorded 3QFY25 topline growth of 11%YoY at USD 540Mn, while 1QFY25 and 2QFY25 toplines recorded a growth of 4%YoY and 6%YoY, respectively. IBEX continues to outperform its peers with a 75% increase in its share price during the LTM, breaking the USD 30 level. Afiniti halved its senior debt by converting 50% of it into convertible preferred stock.
  • During 9MFY25, TRG recorded interest income of PKR 1.7Mn compared to PKR 1.8Mn during the SPLY. The Company recorded administrative and other expenses of PKR 456Mn compared to PKR 199Mn during the SPLY. This resulted in an operating loss of PKR 454Mn during 9MFY25 compared to PKR 196Mn during the SPLY.
Pakistan Economy: Jun’25 NCPI to arrive at 3.4%YoY/0.4%MoM - By Taurus Research

Jun 24 2025


Taurus Securities


  • We expect headline inflation for the month of Jun’25 to clock-in at 3.4%YoY owing to the base effect primarily, along with the sequential increase in food inflation and elevated core inflation. Hence, average inflation for FY25 is expected to touch-down at 4.7%YoY (down 19.3ppts over FY24).
  • During the month, we anticipate food prices to drive the general price level on the back of significant surge in prices of vegetables like Potatoes (up 20%MoM), Onions (up 8%MoM) & Tomatoes (up 30%MoM), mainly. This is expected to be offset by ~17% MoM fall in the price of Chicken (possibly due to lower consumption because of Eid) and stagnant or muted increase in the prices of other food items for the month.
  • However, Chicken prices are likely to increase in the coming months as the Government has proposed to impose a PKR 10 FED on one-day old chicks, as part of the Budget FY26.
Morning News: In another twist, Trump announces Iran-Israel ceasefire - By Taurus Research

Jun 24 2025


Taurus Securities


  • US President Donald Trump said late on Monday that a ceasefire has been agreed between Israel and Iran.
  • Pakistan has announced to extend its airspace restrictions on Indian aircraft for another month until July 23, 2025.
  • The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints —could deal a devastating blow to Pakistan’s already fragile economy, with soaring production, shipping, and insurance costs threatening industrial output, exports, and employment.
Janana De Malucho Textile Mills Limited (JDMT): 9MFY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

Jun 20 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Janana De Malucho Textile Mills Ltd was incorporated in Pakistan as a Public Company in 1960. The Company is mainly engaged in the business of manufacturing and sale of yarn.
  • In 9MFY25, sales clocked in at PKR 1.5Bn as compared to PKR 4.5Bn, down 67% over the SPLY mainly due to the suspension of production activities, weak demand, limited availability of cheaper imported yarn and inability to pass on price impact. The Company recorded gross loss of 29ppts arriving at -26% compared to 3% in the SPLY driven by the significant increase in its fuel & power costs from 18% to 20% during the period.
  • Finance costs arrived at PKR 218Mn compared to PKR 266Mn, down 18% over the SPLY driven by lower interest rate. Loss after tax arrived in at PKR 595Mn as compared to PKR 150Mn, up 3.0x over the SPLY primarily attributable to lower sale price of yarn and higher energy prices.
Economy: May’25 CAB posts a deficit of USD 103Mn - By Taurus Research

Jun 18 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Trade deficit continues to widen (up 16%MoM and 22% over the SPLY) as Pakistan’s CA posted a deficit of USD 103Mn during May’25. Goods exports fell 6% on a sequential basis. Whereas, goods imports increased 5%MoM. Services deficit recorded a contraction of 8% during the month to arrive at USD 2.7Bn in 11MFY25, up 1% over the corresponding period last year.
  • Remittances were the savior yet again, reflecting a growth of 16% over the previous month and 29% overall FYTD, clocking-in at USD 34.9Bn during 11MFY25. Consequently, 11MFY25 current account remains in a surplus of ~USD 1.8Bn. State Bank of Pakistan expects overall CAB for FY25 to post a sizeable surplus.
  • A dissection of the surge in imports shows that while petroleum imports posted a 7%MoM drop, machinery and transport group imports were up 17%MoM and 30%MoM, respectively. The latter is a strong indicator of uptick in economic activity. However, the situation poses a serious risk in case petroleum imports also surge on the back of soaring oil prices due to the evolving geopolitical situation. Resultantly, trade deficit is likely to widen further over the next few months, driving an even higher deficit.