Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW): Result Review: SAZEW 3QFY25 EPS Rs103, DPS Rs12 - By Sherman Research

Apr 21 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW) announced 3QFY25 results today wherein the company posted record net earnings of Rs6.2bn (EPS Rs103.1), 2.6xQoQ higher than our expectations.
  • The earnings growth was driven primarily by robust gross margins and higher sales of Haval SUVs during the 3QFY25.
  • SAZEW declared cash dividend of Rs12 per share for 2QFY25, taking the cumulative dividend payout for 9MFY25 to Rs32 per share.
Sazgar Engineering Works (SAZEW): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways - By Topline Research

May 22 2025


Topline Securities


  • The management of Sazgar Engineering Works (SAZEW) held it's corporate briefing today to discuss the financial results for 3QFY25 and share the company's future outlook.
  • SAZEW plans to complete its four-wheeler manufacturing expansion by March 2026 and introduce new NEV models. The company will also focus on expanding its export markets (mainly three wheelers) and the local dealership network. Sazgar currently has a network of 20 four-wheeler dealers, with expansion underway as new centers in Mardan and Peshawar are set to open soon.
  • The production capacity of the company will increase from 40-50 cars a day to 90-100 cars a day post expansion.
Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd. (SAZEW): 9MFY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

May 22 2025


AKD Securities


  • Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd. (SAZEW) held its analyst briefing to discuss 9MFY25 results and its future outlook. Following are the key highlights:
  • To recall, company posted topline of PkR81.4bn in 9MFY25 vs PkR34.6bn in 9MFY24, an increase of 2.4xYoY. The said increase is primarily attributed to higher volumetric sales of four wheelers, particularly HAVAL.
  • Company posted earnings of PkR12.9bn (EPS: PkR212.7) in 9MFY25, compared to PkR4.4bn (EPS: PkR73.6) in SPLY, an increase of 2.9xYoY.
Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW): 3QFY25 EPS is recorded at PKR 103.1/sh, DPS PKR 12.0/sh - By Foundation Research

Apr 21 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW PA) reported profitability of PKR 6.2Bn (EPS PKR 103.1), up 134/159% YoY/QoQ in 3QFY25. This takes 9MFY25 bottom-line to PKR 12.9Bn (EPS PKR 212.7), up 215% YoY. Results is higher than our expectation of PKR 89.2/sh due to higher than anticipated gross margin.
  • The result is accompanied with an interim cash dividend of PKR 12.0/sh in 3QFY25, pulling 9MFY25 pay-out to PKR 32.0/sh. The dividend is lower than our expectation of 18.0/sh given planned expansions which are to be financed completely with internally generated cash.
  • SAZEW posted sales of PKR 36.7Bn (↑83% YoY) in 3QFY25 which were driven by volumetric sales growth and upwelling gross margins. SAZEW’s 4-wheeler sales volume clocked-in at 3,486 units (↑85/80% YoY/QoQ) in 3QFY25, whereas, 3-wheeler sales were 7,170 units, registering a growth of 41/4% YoY/QoQ.
Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW): Result Review: SAZEW 3QFY25 EPS Rs103, DPS Rs12 - By Sherman Research

Apr 21 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW) announced 3QFY25 results today wherein the company posted record net earnings of Rs6.2bn (EPS Rs103.1), 2.6xQoQ higher than our expectations.
  • The earnings growth was driven primarily by robust gross margins and higher sales of Haval SUVs during the 3QFY25.
  • SAZEW declared cash dividend of Rs12 per share for 2QFY25, taking the cumulative dividend payout for 9MFY25 to Rs32 per share.
Sazgar Engineering (SAZEW): 3QFY25 EPS clocked in at PKR103.06 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 21 2025


Insight Securities


  • SAZEW has announced its 3QFY25 result, wherein company has posted PAT of PKR6.2bn (EPS: PKR103.06) vs. PAT of PKR3.0bn (EPS: PKR50.19) in SPLY. The result is above our expectation mainly due to higher than estimated topline and gross margins.
  • During 3QFY25, revenue witnessed an increase of ~83%/100% YoY/QoQ to clock in at PKR36.7bn, primarily due to higher volumetric sales.
  • Gross margins increased by ~360bps/420bps YoY/QoQ to clock in at ~32.6% in 3QFY25, possibly attributable to higher sales volumes.
Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW): 3QFY25 EPS to Clock in at Rs90.7 - By Sherman Research

Apr 10 2025


Sherman Securities


  • We present 3QFY25 earnings estimate for Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW) wherein company is expected to post net earnings of Rs5.4bn (EPS Rs90.7) as compared to net earnings of Rs3bn (EPS of Rs50.2), up 81%YoY. Furthermore, SAZEW is expected to announce a cash dividend of Rs20/share (up 2.5xYoY) in 3QFY25.
  • The growth in profitability is primarily driven by higher sales of Haval HEV SUVs coupled with higher sustained gross margins expected at 29.5% (supported by tax exemptions on HEV CKD imports).
  • On cumulative basis, net earnings are expected to reach Rs12.2bn (EPS Rs200) compared to net earnings of Rs4.4bn (EPS 73.6) up by 2.7xYoY during 9MFY25
Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW): Revving up for the new era - By Foundation Research

Apr 7 2025


Foundation Securities


  • In a rapidly evolving automotive landscape, SAZEW’s entry into Pakistan’s 4-wheeler market capitalizing on the surging demand for SUVs, marked a pivotal moment. At the heart of this transformation stood the company’s resolve at redefining the industry with its sustainable forward-thinking approach - leveraging Greenfield incentives and expanding into the electric and hybrid segments. With the expected resurgence in the Auto sector, our positive view is underpinned by the company’s (1) brand equity of “HAVAL” in the 4-wheeler market, (2) robust gross margins to upkeep bottom-line, (3) efforts to penetrate further into the EV and HEV segment solidifying its green foot prints and (4) growth in iconic “SAZGAR” 3-wheelers along with broad products offerings - diversifying operational risks. In the light of the above, we initiate coverage on SAZEW with an ‘Outperform’ rating and a Dec’25 TP of PKR 1,504/sh, implying a 38% upside.
  • HAVAL's success story: HAVAL made its entry into the Pakistani market at a very opportune time. Where the SUV segment was slowly growing post the launch of KIA Sportage, MG-HS and Hyundai Tucson to name a few, HAVAL made a solid entry with the launch of Pakistan’s first locally assembled HEV. Consequently, the company has sold over 14k units in just 30 months. In 8MFY25, sales have exceeded 7k units and given the momentum, we opine reaching 12k mark in FY25 would not be a challenging feat. Plus, the collaboration with HIT to convert HAVAL H6 into a security vehicle and the recent MOU signed with Armed forces suggest robust volumetric growth going forward.
  • Elevated margins to stabilize but still remain higher than peers: SAZEW benefits greatly from its Greenfield status and AIDEP (2021-26) policy providing CD and ST concessions, which have resulted in stellar ~29% gross margins over the past 4 quarters compared to only ~10% when 3-wheelers was its main operating segment. Upwelling margins are expected to remain intact till FY26 when concessions end, whereby, we see them settling at ~16.5% in the longer term.
Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW): Result Review: SAZEW 2QFY25 EPS Rs39.8, DPS Rs10 - By Sherman Research

Feb 24 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW) announced 2QFY25 results today wherein the company posted profit-after-tax of Rs2.4bn (EPS Rs39.8), down 43%QoQ below our expectations.
  • The decline in SAZEW’s earnings is attributed to lower sales of Haval SUVs mainly due to year-end effect. We believe the company sold close to ~180 units lower than our estimate of ~350 units during month of Dec’24.
  • SAZEW declared cash dividend of Rs10 per share for 2QFY25, bringing the cumulative dividend payout for 1HFY25 to Rs20 per share.
Sazgar Engineering (SAZEW): 2QFY25 EPS at Rs39.83, up 3.2x YoY while down 43% QoQ – lower than industry expectations - By Topline Research

Feb 24 2025


Topline Securities


  • SAZEW announced its 2QFY25 result where the company recorded earnings of Rs2.4bn (EPS of Rs29.83), up 3.2x YoY, however, down 43% QoQ. The result came lower than industry expectations as we believe company have moved forward majority of its Dec sales to Jan 2025.
  • The large part of deviation was seen in the net revenues, which we expected to be around Rs20bn for Dec quarter, however, actual sales has clocked in at Rs18.4bn. Nonetheless, its up 2.8x YoY. We await the release of half year accounts to ascertain 4-wheeler sales units for month of Dec 2024.
  • Alongside the results, the company announced a dividend of Rs10/share in 2QFY25. This brings 1HFY25 dividend to Rs20/share.
Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW): Driving the SUV Market in Pakistan – By Sherman Research

Jan 7 2025


Sherman Securities


  • In recent months, Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW) has captured significant attention within the auto sector by introducing Haval SUV brand in August 2022 through a JV with Great Wall Motors (GWM) - China’s 8 th largest automobile manufacturer. Beside dominating SUV market, Sazgar already has a well established 3-wheeler rickshaw brand alongside automotive parts segment.
  • With highest gross margin in the industry (due to its cost efficiency and tax exemption on auto parts). We expect Sazgar’s earnings to sustain in near term despite competition from new entrants in hybrid SUV market, thanks to its successful brand ‘HAVAL’.
  • Despite posting exponential return of 462% in last one year, Sazgar trades at a compelling FY25PE of 4.4x, compared to the auto sector's trailing PE of 9x.
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
  • All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
  • For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 setting a record - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Bullish momentum continued for the KSE-100 index, which gained 1,262 points to close at 131,949. Trading volumes stood at 733mn shares, compared to 900mn shares previously. The index is likely to retest Friday’s high of 132,130; a break above this level could target 133,412, with potential to rise further toward 135,232. On the downside, support is seen in the 130,710-131,600 range. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. Immediate support and resistance are placed at 131,067 and 132,480, respectively.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations. While both sides have reached an understanding, a formal announcement is expected only after the US concludes similar ongoing negotiations with other trade partners. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline. The agreement, when signed, could lead to increased Pakistani imports of US goods — notably crude oil — and potential American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors.
  • The U.S. dollar hovered near its lowest since 2021 against the euro and the weakest since 2015 versus the Swiss franc on Monday, with traders alert for any trade-related headlines in the countdown to President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline. The dollar index , which measures the currency against those three rivals and three more major counterparts, was flat at 96.967, hovering above Tuesday’s nearly 3-1/2-year trough of 96.373.
  • US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he had signed 12 trade letters to be sent out next week ahead of an impending deadline for his tariffs to take effect. “I signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday, probably 12,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, adding that the countries to which the letters would be sent will be announced on the same day. His comments come days before steeper duties — which the president said on Thursday would range between 10 and 70 per cent — are set to take effect on dozens of economies, from Taiwan to the European Union.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By Vector Research

Jul 7 2025


Vector Securities


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations, reaching an understanding on a deal that could shape the future of the country’s key export sectors. The delegation arrived in Washington on Monday with the aim of finalising a long-term reciprocal tariff agreement that would prevent the re-imposition of a 29 per cent tariff on Pakistani exports — primarily textiles and agricultural products. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline.
  • Pakistan and Azerbaijan in a major development Friday signed a partnership agreement. The agreement for investment of a total of $2 billion by Azerbaijan in the economic sector of Pakistan.
  • Foreign exchange companies contributed around $450 million to remittance inflows during June, taking their total contribution to approximately $5 billion in FY25, according to the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP). “We sold about $450m to banks in June, highlighting our growing role in supporting the country’s exchange rate stability,” said Zafar Paracha, Secretary General of ECAP.
Morning News: Azerbaijan to invest $2bn in economic sector WE Research

Jul 7 2025



  • Pakistan and Azerbaijan have signed a significant $2 billion investment agreement, marking a new milestone in bilateral economic relations. The deal, signed in the presence of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, and Azerbaijani Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov, reflects growing investor confidence in Pakistan. It follows a cordial meeting between Prime Minister Sharif and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Khankandi, with a more detailed agreement to be finalized during the Azerbaijani President’s upcoming visit to Pakistan. Both countries committed to further enhancing cooperation across various sectors, including trade, investment, and climate issues, as emphasized by Prime Minister Sharif during his remarks in Shusha.
  • With less than a week before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have reached a preliminary understanding on a trade agreement aimed at securing Pakistan’s key export sectors, particularly textiles and agriculture, from the re-imposition of a 29% tariff. Led by Commerce Secretary Jawad Paal, the Pakistani delegation concluded four days of negotiations in Washington, with a formal announcement expected after the US finalizes talks with other trade partners. The proposed deal includes reciprocal tariff arrangements, increased Pakistani imports of US goods such as crude oil, and potential American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors—including projects like Reko Diq. Officials remain optimistic that the agreement will preserve Pakistan’s access to the US market and revitalize economic ties strained since the Trump-era tariffs.
  • Oil prices dropped over 1% after OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing a larger-than-expected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August, raising fears of oversupply. Brent crude fell to $67.50 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped to $65.68. The hike, up from prior monthly increases of 411,000bpd, reflects a more aggressive push for market share, with Saudi Arabia driving much of the actual output gains. OPEC+ cited strong global demand and low inventories as justification. Goldman Sachs expects a final 550,000bpd increase to be announced for September at the group’s August 3 meeting. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia raised prices for its flagship Arab Light crude in a show of confidence in demand. In a related development, U.S. President Trump indicated higher tariffs will be announced by July 9, with implementation set for August 1.
Market Wrap: Banking on Bulls: KSE-100 Hits a New Milestone - By HMFS Research

Jul 4 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) sustained its upward trajectory in today’s session, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index surging to a fresh intra-day high of 132,130 before closing at 131,949, up by a robust 1,262 points (+0.97%). The rally was supported by sustained investor interest—particularly in the banking sector—as participants continued to rotate into fundamentally sound, undervalued plays amid a supportive macroeconomic backdrop. Trading activity remained strong, with the All-Share Index posting a healthy turnover of 731mn shares, while KSE-100 volumes came in at 199mn shares, indicating broad-based participation. Top volume leaders included, WTL (58mn), BML (36mn), and TREET (30mn). The banking sector emerged as the primary driver of index gains, supported by attractive dividend yields, and compelling P/B valuations. The recent softening in Pakistan’s sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads has further improved investor sentiment by lowering perceived external risk, catalyzing flows into equities. While the momentum remains firmly intact, the market’s proximity to psychological resistance levels suggests room for near-term consolidation, especially as investors may opt to lock in recent gains. However, the medium-term narrative remains constructive, underpinned by prospects of continued IMF engagement, fiscal reforms, and easing external account pressures. We continue to advise investors to remain selective and focus on sectors with resilient fundamentals and earnings visibility. In the current phase of the cycle, valuation discipline, liquidity considerations, and macro-driven event positioning will remain critical in navigating market dynamics.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index closed the session on a strong note, gaining 1,262 points to settle at 131,949. Broad-based buying was seen across key sectors, with Autos, banks, and Power leading the charge. Investor sentiment remained upbeat, supported by improved macros and anticipation of further monetary easing. Looking forward, we have a favorable view on the market in the near term, backed by favorable liquidity conditions, positive policy cues, and foreign interest returning to key sectors. However, intermittent consolidation cannot be ruled out as the index approaches resistance levels.
Fertilizers: Sales to recover in June-2025; albeit inventory level remains high - By JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • As per provisional figures, Urea off-take during Jun-2025 is expected to clock in at 580k tons, arriving at a growth of 20% YoY/ 39% MoM. Cumulatively, Urea off-take is likely to post a negative growth of 23% YoY during 1HCY25. On the other hand, DAP off-take is likely to fall 15% YoY during the month.
  • Company-wise, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to post Urea off-take of 269k tons in Jun-2025, up 4% YoY. This includes 51k tons of granular Urea. Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is likely to post growth 32% YoY, arriving at 205k tons. In terms of market share, EFERT Urea share improved by 3ppts YoY to 35%, while FFC’s share dipped 8ppts YoY during the month.
  • Urea inventory is expected to remain elevated at around 1.3mn tons by the end of 1HCY25. Assuming capacity utilization remains stable at current levels, allowance of export can be a key trigger in our view, helping to mitigate inventory buildup despite the anticipated increase in local sales during 2HCY25.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue - By JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index witnessed a volatile session to close at 130,687, up 343 points DoD. Volumes stood at 900mn shares compared to 1,026mn shares traded in the last session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 131,325 with a break above targeting 132,134, which can extend to 133,412. However, any downside will find support in the range of 129,050-129,870 levels. The RSI and the MACD are heading up, supporting a positive outlook. We advise investors to 'Buy on dips', keeping stoploss below 128,616. The support and resistance levels are placed at 129,867 and 131,415, respectively.
Fertilizer: Urea Sales Up 21%YoY in Jun’25 - By Sherman Research

Jul 2 2025


Sherman Securities


  • According to provisional data, urea sales during June’25 is expected to clock in at 582k tons (up 21%YoY). Despite weaker farm economics, the YoY increase in urea sales can be mainly attributed due to 1) Subdued sales over the past few months and 2) Pre buying of urea amid concern of imposition of FED in recent budget.
  • Similarly, on MoM basis, urea sales is likely to rebound sharply by 39%MoM mainly due to higher demand owing to seasonal impact (Kharif season).
  • Urea sales of Fauji Group to clock in at 269k tons versus sales of 259k tons during the same period last year (up 4%YoY). Similarly, EFERT is likely to witness sharp recovery in urea sales of 34%YoY to 208k tons, mainly led by low base impact.
Economy: June CPI Expected at 3.54%YoY - By Sherman Research

Jun 24 2025


Sherman Securities


  • We expect headline inflation in June’25 to be reported at 3.54%YoY, slightly higher than 3.45%YoY recorded in the previous month. This increase is primarily attributed to a pickup in energy and food prices and a low base effect from the previous year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to increase by 0.5%MoM in June’25.
  • Despite a decrease in the heavy-weighted wheat flour (down 14.7%YoY) the food sector is expected to grow by 3.6%YoY mainly due to increase in price of Sugar (up 26.8%YoY), Eggs (up 33%YoY), Beef (up 13.8%YoY) and Fresh Milk (up 9%YoY).
  • On a MoM basis, the food index is expected to increase by 0.53%, driven by increasing prices of Sugar and Eggs by 3.7%MoM and 17.4%MoM respectively, however we expect a decline in prices of Tomatoes and Chicken by 30.7%MoM and 20.5%MoM respectively.
Energy: Levy on FO & Its Impact on Companies - By Sherman Research

Jun 23 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Under IMF’s program for Resilience and Sustainability Financing (RSF), government is expected to impose both Carbon Levy (CL) and Petroleum Levy (PL) on Furnace Oil (FO) from July 01, 2025 to curb excessive fossil fuel consumption and gather additional funds for green energy programs. This is the first time government will impose Levy of Rs79.5 per liter on FO including PL of Rs77 per liter and CL of Rs2.5 per liter. This will inflate price of FO by Rs85,000 per ton (57%) to around Rs235,000 per ton and may impact FO demand in Pakistan. It is to be noted that, if international oil prices stay above US$75 per barrel during rest of the ongoing month, FO price after this Levy may increase by 67% to Rs250,000 per ton.
  • Pakistan is likely to consume around 0.9mn tons (950mn liters) of FO during FY25 compared to 1.2mn tons during F24. Over the last 3 years (FY23-FY25), Pakistan’s FO consumption declined sharply by average 40% per annum. Interestingly, 10 years back Pakistan’s FO consumption was around 9.2mn tons as power sector was the major consumer since FO based electricity generation mix at that time was around 35%. Now Coal and LNG substituted FO as share of FO is now only 1.5% of the electricity generation mix. Local refineries produce around 2.5mn tons while annual export is 1.5mn tons. FO is a dyeing product used as bunker fuel for the ships and thus its global demand is limited.
Auto: SUV Sales Rebounded With 84%MoM Growth - By Sherman Research

Jun 13 2025


Sherman Securities


  • SUVs posted robust growth in sales with 2,638 units (up 84%MoM). This is the highest monthly sales numbers of the current year– barring one-off sales in January due to year end phenomenon.
  • Within SUVs, Tucson sales grew to 569 units compared to only 5 units last month. Havel sales also climbed by 70%MoM.
  • Company wise, highest sales was recorded by SAZEW ( Up 67%MoM) on back of elevated Havel sales. In 11MFY25, SAZEW lead the industry with the most sales growth (Up 2.3xYoY)
Pakistan Economy: FEDERAL BUDGET FY26, Key Budgetary Measures - By Sherman Research

Jun 11 2025


Sherman Securities


  • We view the FY26 budget as Positive for the stock market, given that the announced targets appear realistic and largely aligned with IMF expectations.
  • With the budget now behind us, investor attention will shift toward macroeconomic indicators—particularly inflation trends and the external account. In this context, the trajectory of international oil prices will play a key role during FY26.
  • We do not foresee any material changes to our corporate earnings estimates, as key heavyweight sectors such as Energy and Banks remain largely insulated from new taxation measures. Accordingly, we maintain our FY26 earnings growth projection at 12%.
Refinery: GRMs Sharply Recovering - By Sherman Research

Jun 4 2025


Sherman Securities


  • After plunging to lowest level of US$4.5 per barrel in April 25, Gross Refining Margins (GRMs) of local refineries significantly recovered to US$9.3 per barrel during ongoing month of June. This is positive for local refineries as their earnings are directly linked with changes in GRMs.
  • Just to recall, highest GRM was recorded at US$30 per barrel during July 2022 while average GRMs during last 5 years stood at US$7 per barrel.
  • GRM is the sum of the weighted average spread of products which a refinery is yielding on every barrel of crude it processes. Major products include Diesel (HSD), Gasoline (MS) and Furnace oil (FO).
Economy: May CPI Clocked in at 3.5%YoY - By Sherman Research

Jun 2 2025


Sherman Securities


  • CPI for May’2025 was recorded at 3.5%, the highest level recorded in CY25 so far, primarily driven by a sharp rise in the Food and Clothing indices.
  • The food index posted inflation of 3.5%YoY in May’25. This increase was mainly driven by a increase fall in the prices of essential food items such as Meat (up 11.8%YoY), Chicken (up 52%YoY), Milk fresh (up 11%YoY), and Fresh fruits (up 30%YoY).
  • On a MoM basis, CPI declined by 0.2%MoM primarily driven by housing index (down 1.2%MoM) aimed decline in electricity charges (down 7.02%MoM). The food index also fell by 0.2% MoM, largely due to continued decline in the prices of wheat, onions, and tomatoes.
Fertilizer: Urea Sales Up 5%YoY, Inventory at 8-Year High - By Sherman Research

Jun 2 2025


Sherman Securities


  • According to provisional data, urea sales during May’25 is expected to clock in at 418k tons (up 5%YoY). Despite weaker farm economics, the YoY increase in urea sales can be mainly attributed due to subdued sales over the past few months.
  • Similarly, on MoM basis, urea sales is likely to rebound sharply by 67%MoM mainly due to seasonal impact along with base impact due to canal protest in several parts of Sindh during the last month.
  • Urea sales of Fauji Group to clock in at 207k tons versus sales of 289k tons during the same period last year, down 28%YoY. On the flip side, EFERT is likely to witness sharp recovery in urea sales of 85%YoY to 142k tons, mainly led by low base impact.
Economy: Pakistan’s Trade Deficit Widens to 2–Year High - By Sherman Research

May 19 2025


Sherman Securities


  • A detailed breakdown of trade numbers released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) shows that, on a monthly basis, imports of goods posted growth of 17%MoM at US$5.6bn during April’25. The growth was primarily driven by imports in the Machinery and Petroleum group on a weighted average basis, while Food imports remained flat.
  • Wherein exports clocked in at US$2.1bn (down 18%MoM) mainly due to decrease in exports in the textile sector.
  • Thus, the monthly trade deficit widened to US$3.4bn (up 59%MoM) in Apr’25 highest since May’23. On cumulative basis, import bill was recorded at US$48.3bn (up 8%YoY) during 10MFY25 mainly due to higher imports of Machinery, Textile and Metals, while Petroleum imports declined. Thus, cumulative trade deficit clocked US$21.4bn (up 9%YoY) for 10MFY25.
Auto: Car Sales Expected to Remain Flat in April’25 -- By Sherman Research

May 7 2025


Sherman Securities


  • The sales of leading car assemblers registered with PAMA are expected to remain flat clocking at 8,970 units in April’25 (down 1%MoM).
  • The flat sales are driven by decline in sales of PSMC following price hikes on popular models. Additionally, INDU’s moderate sales aimed losing market share to rising competition from new players.
  • Indus Motors (INDU) expected to report sales of 3,259 units (up 4%MoM) during the month. This growth in sales is mainly due to higher sale of Yaris, Corolla and Hilux
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