KseAlert | Morning News: Pakistan’s real growth forecast stays unchanged: State Bank

Morning News: Pakistan’s real growth forecast stays unchanged: State Bank - By WE Research

Apr 29 2025

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) projects a more optimistic macroeconomic outlook for FY25, citing improving economic indicators, easing financial conditions, and stronger external balances, with real GDP growth expected between 2.5% and 3.5%. While positive trends like declining commodity prices, rising remittances, and improved exports support this view, risks remain, including global protectionist policies, geopolitical tensions, and potential inflation resurgence. Inflation is now projected lower at 5.5–7.5%, down from earlier estimates of 11.5–13.5%, aided by fiscal consolidation, stable energy prices, and food supply. However, fiscal risks such as potential tax revenue shortfalls and weak agricultural performance—particularly in wheat—could limit growth. The SBP’s report underscores that Pakistan’s outlook remains sensitive to external shocks, particularly in trade and global financial markets.

In the first half of FY25, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions improved notably, with headline inflation falling to a multi-decade low of 0.7% by March 2025, the current account turning surplus, and the fiscal deficit reaching its lowest level in 20 years, largely due to fiscal consolidation, tight monetary policy, and favorable global commodity trends. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) attributed these gains to a coordinated policy stance, IMF program support, and improved credit ratings. Despite easing inflation and a 1000 basis point cut in policy rate from June 2024 to February 2025, real GDP growth remained modest due to weak Kharif crop production and industrial contraction, though services showed relative strength. A rise in exports and remittances also helped bolster foreign reserves. However, the SBP warned of long-term challenges, emphasizing that weak productivity growth has undermined competitiveness and contributed to economic volatility, calling for structural reforms to enhance productivity and economic resilience.

In the first nine months of FY25, Pakistan’s salaried class paid a record Rs391 billion in income tax— nearly 10% of the country’s total income tax collection—highlighting a starkly disproportionate burden compared to other sectors like traders and retailers, who contributed far less. This represents a 56% increase from last year and already exceeds the government’s full-year target by Rs140 billion. Despite paying taxes on gross income without deductions and bearing the brunt of policy changes like reduced tax slabs and surcharges, their plight was not addressed in recent IMF negotiations. In contrast, retailers and wholesalers, many unregistered, paid a fraction of this amount, undermining the fairness of the tax system. With the IMF team set to review Pakistan’s budget in May, officials suggest high salaried-class collections might deter tax relief. Meanwhile, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) faces revenue shortfalls, attributing underperformance to slower economic growth and inflation, despite Rs1.3 trillion in new taxes introduced in the current budget.

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Market Wrap: Highlights of the day July 7, 2025 - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025

JS Global Capital

The KSE-100 Index surged 1.4% to an all-time intraday high of 133,862.01, driven by optimism over trade negotiations, macroeconomic stability, and a strong corporate earnings outlook. Falling inflation, strengthening FX reserves, and capital inflows are enhancing investor confidence, while higher taxes on alternative assets are redirecting capital into equities. With earnings season ahead and technical indicators breaking new ground, we expect the bullish momentum to persist in the near term, supported by favorable macro trends and reallocation from fixed-income instruments.

Market Wrap: Bullish Momentum Carries KSE-100 Beyond 133,000 - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025

HMFS Research

The market continued its unrelenting bullish streak, surging past the 133,862 mark for the first time in history. This milestone rally was fueled by renewed investor confidence, driven by key trade developments and sector-specific momentum. Investor sentiment received a notable boost as Pakistan and the U.S. concluded a critical round of trade talks ahead of the July 9 deadline. While an official announcement is still awaited, early signs point to a favorable deal for Pakistan’s export sectors. Adding to the positive momentum, OGDC reported a production uplift following the successful installation of an ESP at Rajian-05, where it holds full ownership—further reinforcing its operational strength. The rally was led by the banking and fertilizer sectors, supported by expectations of strong upcoming results and favorable sectoral tailwinds. The KSE-100 index closed at 133,370 level, up 1,421 points in a robust session. Market activity remained upbeat, with 344 million shares traded on the KSE100 and total market volume reaching 915 million shares. Volume leaders included IMAGE (48mn), BOP (43mn), and WTL (37mn). While a short-term breather cannot be ruled out given the sharp upward trajectory, overall sentiment is expected to remain strong amid continued macroeconomic improvement. Investors are advised to stay focused on fundamentally sound stocks with long-term value.

Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC enhances production at Rajian-05 well - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025

AKD Securities

Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has enhanced production in Rajian-05 through installation of electrical submersible pumps (ESP). Following the workover, production has increased to 3.1kbpd of oil and 1.0mmcfd of gas, compared to 1.1k bpd/0.5mmcfd of oil/gas during 3QFY25. Notably, OGDC is the wholly-owned operator of the Rajian heavy oil field, where several workovers and artificial lift systems have been implemented at previous wells to expedite revival. We anticipate the aforementioned development to have an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR1.3 per sh for OGDC, respectively.

Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025

AKD Securities

The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.

GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular

Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).

Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025

JS Global Capital

We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.

All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.

For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.

Technical Outlook: KSE-100 setting a record - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025

JS Global Capital

Bullish momentum continued for the KSE-100 index, which gained 1,262 points to close at 131,949. Trading volumes stood at 733mn shares, compared to 900mn shares previously. The index is likely to retest Friday’s high of 132,130; a break above this level could target 133,412, with potential to rise further toward 135,232. On the downside, support is seen in the 130,710-131,600 range. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. Immediate support and resistance are placed at 131,067 and 132,480, respectively.

Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025

HMFS Research

With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations. While both sides have reached an understanding, a formal announcement is expected only after the US concludes similar ongoing negotiations with other trade partners. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline. The agreement, when signed, could lead to increased Pakistani imports of US goods — notably crude oil — and potential American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors.

The U.S. dollar hovered near its lowest since 2021 against the euro and the weakest since 2015 versus the Swiss franc on Monday, with traders alert for any trade-related headlines in the countdown to President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline. The dollar index , which measures the currency against those three rivals and three more major counterparts, was flat at 96.967, hovering above Tuesday’s nearly 3-1/2-year trough of 96.373.

US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he had signed 12 trade letters to be sent out next week ahead of an impending deadline for his tariffs to take effect. “I signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday, probably 12,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, adding that the countries to which the letters would be sent will be announced on the same day. His comments come days before steeper duties — which the president said on Thursday would range between 10 and 70 per cent — are set to take effect on dozens of economies, from Taiwan to the European Union.

Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By Vector Research

Jul 7 2025

Vector Securities

With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations, reaching an understanding on a deal that could shape the future of the country’s key export sectors. The delegation arrived in Washington on Monday with the aim of finalising a long-term reciprocal tariff agreement that would prevent the re-imposition of a 29 per cent tariff on Pakistani exports — primarily textiles and agricultural products. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline.

Pakistan and Azerbaijan in a major development Friday signed a partnership agreement. The agreement for investment of a total of $2 billion by Azerbaijan in the economic sector of Pakistan.

Foreign exchange companies contributed around $450 million to remittance inflows during June, taking their total contribution to approximately $5 billion in FY25, according to the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP). “We sold about $450m to banks in June, highlighting our growing role in supporting the country’s exchange rate stability,” said Zafar Paracha, Secretary General of ECAP.

Morning News: Azerbaijan to invest $2bn in economic sector WE Research

Jul 7 2025

Pakistan and Azerbaijan have signed a significant $2 billion investment agreement, marking a new milestone in bilateral economic relations. The deal, signed in the presence of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, and Azerbaijani Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov, reflects growing investor confidence in Pakistan. It follows a cordial meeting between Prime Minister Sharif and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Khankandi, with a more detailed agreement to be finalized during the Azerbaijani President’s upcoming visit to Pakistan. Both countries committed to further enhancing cooperation across various sectors, including trade, investment, and climate issues, as emphasized by Prime Minister Sharif during his remarks in Shusha.

With less than a week before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have reached a preliminary understanding on a trade agreement aimed at securing Pakistan’s key export sectors, particularly textiles and agriculture, from the re-imposition of a 29% tariff. Led by Commerce Secretary Jawad Paal, the Pakistani delegation concluded four days of negotiations in Washington, with a formal announcement expected after the US finalizes talks with other trade partners. The proposed deal includes reciprocal tariff arrangements, increased Pakistani imports of US goods such as crude oil, and potential American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors—including projects like Reko Diq. Officials remain optimistic that the agreement will preserve Pakistan’s access to the US market and revitalize economic ties strained since the Trump-era tariffs.

Oil prices dropped over 1% after OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing a larger-than-expected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August, raising fears of oversupply. Brent crude fell to $67.50 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped to $65.68. The hike, up from prior monthly increases of 411,000bpd, reflects a more aggressive push for market share, with Saudi Arabia driving much of the actual output gains. OPEC+ cited strong global demand and low inventories as justification. Goldman Sachs expects a final 550,000bpd increase to be announced for September at the group’s August 3 meeting. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia raised prices for its flagship Arab Light crude in a show of confidence in demand. In a related development, U.S. President Trump indicated higher tariffs will be announced by July 9, with implementation set for August 1.

Market Wrap: Banking on Bulls: KSE-100 Hits a New Milestone - By HMFS Research

Jul 4 2025

HMFS Research

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) sustained its upward trajectory in today’s session, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index surging to a fresh intra-day high of 132,130 before closing at 131,949, up by a robust 1,262 points (+0.97%). The rally was supported by sustained investor interest—particularly in the banking sector—as participants continued to rotate into fundamentally sound, undervalued plays amid a supportive macroeconomic backdrop. Trading activity remained strong, with the All-Share Index posting a healthy turnover of 731mn shares, while KSE-100 volumes came in at 199mn shares, indicating broad-based participation. Top volume leaders included, WTL (58mn), BML (36mn), and TREET (30mn). The banking sector emerged as the primary driver of index gains, supported by attractive dividend yields, and compelling P/B valuations. The recent softening in Pakistan’s sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads has further improved investor sentiment by lowering perceived external risk, catalyzing flows into equities. While the momentum remains firmly intact, the market’s proximity to psychological resistance levels suggests room for near-term consolidation, especially as investors may opt to lock in recent gains. However, the medium-term narrative remains constructive, underpinned by prospects of continued IMF engagement, fiscal reforms, and easing external account pressures. We continue to advise investors to remain selective and focus on sectors with resilient fundamentals and earnings visibility. In the current phase of the cycle, valuation discipline, liquidity considerations, and macro-driven event positioning will remain critical in navigating market dynamics.

Morning News: In meeting with Pakistan’s COAS, Trump shows interest in long-term trade partnership - By WE Research

Jun 20 2025

During a cordial and extended meeting at the White House, U.S. President Donald J. Trump and Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, discussed expanding bilateral cooperation across various domains including trade, economic development, AI, energy, and counter-terrorism. Both sides emphasized strategic convergence and mutual interests, with President Trump expressing strong interest in a long-term trade partnership and praising Pakistan’s regional peace efforts. The leaders also addressed tensions between Iran and Israel, highlighting the need for conflict resolution. The meeting, which included high-level officials from both countries, reflected the warmth of ties and concluded with an invitation for President Trump to visit Pakistan.

Attock Refinery Limited (ARL) has signed an agreement with Italian engineering firm STP Studi Tecnologie Progetti for Front End Engineering Design (FEED) and Project Management Consultancy (PMC) as part of its refinery upgradation project, estimated to cost up to US$ 600 million. This major investment marks a significant milestone in ARL’s strategy to enhance value addition and environmentally friendly fuel production. The upgrade includes a Continuous Catalyst Regeneration (CCR) unit and the revamp of the Diesel Hydro Desulfurization Unit, following licensor FEED studies with UOP/Honeywell. The project aims to improve product quality, reduce environmental impact, and align ARL’s operations with international fuel standards.

The Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) has approved a revenue-sharing agreement between Sui Southern Gas Company Limited (SSGC) and Jamshoro Joint Venture Limited (JJVL), allowing the JJVL LPG-NGL extraction plant to become operational by July 31. Under the agreement, revenue will be shared at a 66:34 ratio in favor of SSGC, which will also receive a 25% share of LPG based on Ogranotified producer prices, generating an estimated Rs2 billion annually. While both parties have initialed the deal, formal signing will follow the issuance of SIFC meeting minutes. SSGC sought SIFC’s endorsement to ensure transparency and avoid future scrutiny by NAB.

Morning News: $2.5bn surplus in trade with US: Aurangzeb - By WE Research

May 22 2025

Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, reported that Pakistan recorded a trade surplus of $2.5 billion with the United States during the current financial year 2024-25 (up to March), with exports at $4.4 billion and imports at $1.9 billion. In the previous year, 2023-24, exports were $5.3 billion and imports $2.2 billion, resulting in a $3.1 billion surplus. Key exports include garments and medical instruments, while major imports consist of cotton, steel scrap, computers, and petroleum products. The U.S. has imposed a 30% reciprocal tariff on Pakistani imports, currently suspended for 90 days, which exporters see as a challenge but also a potential opportunity due to higher tariffs on competitors. In response, the prime minister has formed a Steering Committee and a working group, with the Ministry of Commerce coordinating a comprehensive strategy to engage with U.S. authorities.

Gold prices in Pakistan rose significantly on Wednesday, with 24-karat gold reaching Rs349,400 per tola after an increase of Rs6,600, and 10 grams priced at Rs299,554, up Rs5,659, according to the AllPakistan Gems and Jewelers Sarafa Association. The price of 22-karat gold also increased to Rs274,601 per 10 grams. Silver prices followed suit, with 24-karat silver rising to Rs3,466 per tola and Rs2,971 per 10 grams. Internationally, spot gold traded near $3,302 an ounce, up 0.39%, marking its third consecutive daily gain, driven by a softer dollar and heightened safe-haven demand amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

Pakistan’s per capita income rose by 9.75% to a record $1,824 in FY2024–25, up from $1,662 the previous year, with the economy’s total size reaching $410.96 billion—a 2.68% annual increase—according to provisional estimates by the Pakistan National Accounts Committee (NAC). In rupee terms, per capita income grew 8.27% to Rs509,174. This growth, driven mainly by a 3.99% rise in the services sector and a modest 1.18% increase in agriculture, helped Pakistan join the world’s 40 largest economies, despite a continued 1.14% contraction in the industrial sector. The NAC also revised earlier quarterly GDP growth estimates and finalized FY23 growth at -0.21% and FY24 at 2.51%. Analysts see the rebound as a sign of resilience amid global and domestic challenges, marking the highest GDP since FY18, when it last approached similar levels before facing economic and political instability.

Morning News: Key policy rate slashed by 100bps to 11pc - By WE Research

May 6 2025

The State Bank of Pakistan's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the key policy rate by 100 basis points to 11%, citing a sharp drop in inflation due to lower electricity tariffs and easing food prices, bringing the total rate cut since June 2024 to 11 percentage points. Inflation fell to 0.3% year-on-year in April, and core inflation also declined, while real GDP grew by 1.7% in Q2-FY25, driven by improved remittances, a current account surplus, and rising business confidence. Despite some weak industrial segments and agricultural output challenges, the MPC maintained its FY25 growth forecast at 2.5– 3.5% and projected further improvement in FY26, though risks remain from global uncertainty, supply -chain issues, and volatile commodity prices. Foreign exchange reserves are expected to rise to $14 billion by June 2025, and the fiscal deficit is likely to remain on target despite challenges in meeting the primary surplus goal, highlighting the need for sustained reforms in taxation and state-owned enterprises.

Efforts are underway to project Pakistan’s real GDP growth at around 3% for FY2024–25, despite low investment and savings rates and weak performance in key sectors. Concerns have been raised over the credibility of this target, especially with contractions in Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM), which declined 1.9% in Jul–Feb FY25, and a significant drop in major crop output, including cotton (down 33%) and maize. Although second-quarter growth was boosted—partly by historically high livestock estimates—reaching 3% would require a nearly 5% growth in the third quarter, which seems unlikely given current sectoral trends. Agriculture remains weak due to water shortages and low crop yields, while multilateral institutions project GDP growth between 2–2.6%. Despite this, internal government bodies, including the Ministry of Planning and Finance, appear eager to portray a higher growth trajectory ahead of the upcoming Economic Survey. The final provisional GDP estimate is expected by May 20, 2025, although independent experts argue growth may not exceed 2% based on the current data trajectory.

In April 2025, Pakistan’s overall Business Confidence Index (BCI) rose by 0.4 points to 56.9, according to the latest Business Confidence Survey conducted by the State Bank of Pakistan and IBA, driven by improvements in both the Industry and Services sectors. The Current Business Confidence Index (CBCI), reflecting perceptions over the past six months, climbed 0.9 points to 56, while the Expected Business Confidence Index (EBCI) remained stable at 57.8. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) also improved by 0.7 points to 53.5, signaling moderate expansion. Businesses’ inflation expectations rose slightly by 0.2 points to 64.2. Notably, the Expected Employment Index increased by 1.3 points to 55.3, with both industry and services sectors showing gains. Additionally, capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector edged up by 0.4% to 64.8%, indicating a slight uptick in production activity

Morning News: Pakistan’s real growth forecast stays unchanged: State Bank - By WE Research

Apr 29 2025

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) projects a more optimistic macroeconomic outlook for FY25, citing improving economic indicators, easing financial conditions, and stronger external balances, with real GDP growth expected between 2.5% and 3.5%. While positive trends like declining commodity prices, rising remittances, and improved exports support this view, risks remain, including global protectionist policies, geopolitical tensions, and potential inflation resurgence. Inflation is now projected lower at 5.5–7.5%, down from earlier estimates of 11.5–13.5%, aided by fiscal consolidation, stable energy prices, and food supply. However, fiscal risks such as potential tax revenue shortfalls and weak agricultural performance—particularly in wheat—could limit growth. The SBP’s report underscores that Pakistan’s outlook remains sensitive to external shocks, particularly in trade and global financial markets.

In the first half of FY25, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions improved notably, with headline inflation falling to a multi-decade low of 0.7% by March 2025, the current account turning surplus, and the fiscal deficit reaching its lowest level in 20 years, largely due to fiscal consolidation, tight monetary policy, and favorable global commodity trends. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) attributed these gains to a coordinated policy stance, IMF program support, and improved credit ratings. Despite easing inflation and a 1000 basis point cut in policy rate from June 2024 to February 2025, real GDP growth remained modest due to weak Kharif crop production and industrial contraction, though services showed relative strength. A rise in exports and remittances also helped bolster foreign reserves. However, the SBP warned of long-term challenges, emphasizing that weak productivity growth has undermined competitiveness and contributed to economic volatility, calling for structural reforms to enhance productivity and economic resilience.

In the first nine months of FY25, Pakistan’s salaried class paid a record Rs391 billion in income tax— nearly 10% of the country’s total income tax collection—highlighting a starkly disproportionate burden compared to other sectors like traders and retailers, who contributed far less. This represents a 56% increase from last year and already exceeds the government’s full-year target by Rs140 billion. Despite paying taxes on gross income without deductions and bearing the brunt of policy changes like reduced tax slabs and surcharges, their plight was not addressed in recent IMF negotiations. In contrast, retailers and wholesalers, many unregistered, paid a fraction of this amount, undermining the fairness of the tax system. With the IMF team set to review Pakistan’s budget in May, officials suggest high salaried-class collections might deter tax relief. Meanwhile, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) faces revenue shortfalls, attributing underperformance to slower economic growth and inflation, despite Rs1.3 trillion in new taxes introduced in the current budget.

Morning News: Trade gap with ME widens - By WE Research

Apr 15 2025

Pakistan’s trade deficit with the Middle East widened by 9.75% to $9.35 billion in the first eight months of FY25, mainly due to a surge in petroleum imports, particularly a 20.29% increase in crude oil volumes. While exports to the region rose modestly—by 3.56% to $2.095 billion—imports jumped 8.56% to $11.44 billion during the same period. Despite a narrowing of the trade gap in FY24 due to lower petroleum consumption, the deficit has grown again, raising concerns. Pakistan recently signed a free trade agreement with GCC states to address the imbalance, with notable export growth to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Exports to Saudi Arabia rose 10.59% and to the UAE by 5.84% during July-February, while imports from both also fluctuated. However, exports to Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar declined significantly, while imports from these countries mostly increased, further contributing to the widening trade deficit.

In the upcoming 2025–26 federal budget, the Pakistani government is expected to raise taxes on a wide range of food and beverage items to increase tax revenue. Proposed measures include doubling the excise duty on soft drinks, sweetened beverages, and juices from 20% to 40%, while introducing a new 20% tax on industrial dairy products. Meat products, bakery goods, and confectionery items— such as chocolate, pastries, and cereals—are also likely to face a 50% tax increase, along with frozen desserts and products made from animal or vegetable fats. These tax hikes are planned to be implemented gradually over three years. Simultaneously, the defence budget is set to increase by Rs159 billion to Rs2,281 billion for FY26, marking a 7.49% rise from the previous year and a Rs263.2 billion increase since FY24, highlighting a continued focus on national security amid broader fiscal reforms.

Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, chaired a high-level meeting on priority sector lending aimed at aligning Pakistan’s financial sector with the government's export-led growth agenda. Attended by key officials from the State Bank, the Pakistan Banks Association, and leading banks, the session emphasized the banking sector's vital role in facilitating foreign direct investment and supporting export-oriented industries. The minister highlighted the successful Pakistan Minerals Summit and Maersk Line’s $2 billion investment in maritime infrastructure as indicators of investor confidence. He stressed the need for sustainable, investment-led economic growth, avoiding past boom-bust cycles. Notably, this year’s budget process was initiated early, incorporating stakeholder feedback from commerce chambers. Zafar Masud of the PBA presented updates on banking support for agriculture, SMEs, and digital sectors, including initiatives like electronic warehouse receipt finance and SME performance indices. The minister concluded with a call for coordinated efforts to develop fintech-driven credit solutions for smallholder farmers and to ensure long-term economic transformation rooted in stability, inclusivity, and resilience.

Morning News: IMF team due next week to discuss taxation proposals for next budget - By WE Research

Apr 11 2025

A technical team from the IMF is scheduled to visit Pakistan starting April 14, 2025, to engage in discussions with senior officials of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) regarding taxation proposals for the FY2025-26 budget. The talks will focus on expanding the tax base by bringing retailers and other untaxed sectors under the tax net, while the government is also considering reducing tax rates for the salaried class. Both parties are expected to explore the inclusion of high-income pensioners in the tax framework. Meanwhile, the IMF’s governance and anti-corruption diagnostic team will be concluding its visit. Additionally, a high-level Pakistani delegation, headed by Finance Minister Mohammad Aurangzeb, will attend the annual spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, D.C., from April 21 to 26, 2025.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has halted a proposal to waive the 18% sales tax on local supplies of commodities, raw materials, and machinery to registered exporters under the Export Facilitation Scheme (EFS), due to concerns over potential objections from the IMF. The proposal, originally put forth by a committee led by Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal, aimed to restore tax exemptions and reintroduce insurance guarantees to address anomalies that favor imports over local procurement—an issue impacting domestic industries like ginning factories. While some officials suggested revisiting the matter with the IMF, the Prime Minister rejected the idea, instead calling for a balanced solution that does not disadvantage local producers. The government is considering imposing the same 18% tax on imports to level the playing field. The PM emphasized boosting exports remains a top priority and urged the committee to incorporate industry feedback and develop consensus-based recommendations. The EFS, launched in 2021, has undergone stricter controls in recent months to curb misuse, including reduced utilization periods and enhanced monitoring.

Pakistan’s total liquid foreign exchange reserves increased by $173 million during the week ending April 4, 2025, reaching $15.75 billion, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). This rise includes a $23 million gain in SBP-held reserves, which stood at $10.699 billion, up from $10.676 billion the previous week. Additionally, net reserves held by commercial banks saw a notable increase of $150 million, reaching $5.053 billion compared to $4.903 billion the week before.

Fauji Cement Company Limited (FCCL): Poised for Continued Growth - Market Weight - By WE Research

Mar 18 2025

Since Jan’2024, the Pakistan cement sector has witnessed a swift recovery on the back of anticipated interest cut, where the industry stock performance increased by 46%. Among the local peers, FCCL has been the key driver on this rally, delivering an 92% return, with its share price surging from PKR 18.95/sh on January 1, 2024, to PKR 36.4/sh on January 1, 2025. However, despite this strong market performance, cement dispatches in CY24 remained stagnant/low, where local demand reached at 38.2 Mn tons, depicting a decline of 4.5% YoY. However, we expect FY25 to be a strong year for the industry, driven by lower interest rates and enhanced purchasing power across both consumer and industrial sectors, where we anticipated local dispatches to clock in at 38Mn tons 4% YoY increase from FY25.

We have a Market Weight stance on FCCL, with a DCF-based target price of PKR 64.40 per share for DEC’25 offering 40% upside potential. FCCL is currently valued at ~US$39.17EV/ton compared to 5-year average of ~US$32.65EV/ton. On EV/EBIDTA basis, stock is trading at ~11.07x as compared to 5-year average of ~6x.

Our liking for the stocks emanate from 1) Healthy gross margins driven by cost efficiency initiatives, 2) Recent capacity expansion to enhance market footprint, 3) Strong cash flow led to higher payouts & 4) Reducing interest rate to increase profitability.

Morning News: Economy seen growing at 3.4pc in FY25 – By WE Research

Jan 13 2025

Pakistan's economy is showing signs of recovery from the 2022-23 downturn, with a projected 3.4% GDP growth in FY25, according to the United Nations' latest economic survey. The IMF’s 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, worth $7 billion, aims to address structural challenges, promote economic stability, and foster sustainable growth by focusing on reforms, policy credibility, competitiveness, state-owned enterprises, and climate resilience. Despite these efforts, risks such as geopolitical tensions, debt challenges, social unrest, and climate-related shocks, including extreme weather events, could hinder growth. The South Asian region is expected to see moderate GDP expansion, with inflation decreasing across most countries, including Pakistan, which has reduced key policy rates to support recovery. However, the region remains vulnerable to climate impacts, which have led to increased food prices and income inequality, particularly affecting rural households.

Pakistan saw a significant increase in workers' remittances, with $3.1 billion inflows in December 2024, reflecting a 29.3% year-on-year growth and a 5.6% month-on-month rise. Cumulatively, remittances reached $17.8 billion in the first half of FY25, up 32.8% from the previous year. Major sources included Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the UK, and the US. Analysts attribute the surge to efforts that narrowed the gap between black market and interbank exchange rates, a stable rupee, and the Pakistan Stock Exchange's strong performance. With ongoing government measures to regulate the remittance sector, including tighter controls on smuggling and improved documentation, remittance inflows are expected to exceed $35 billion by the end of FY25, a 35% increase from FY24. While improvements in dollar-rupee parity have bolstered this trend, experts caution against policies favoring export lobbies, arguing for broader currency stabilization measures.

Inflows through Pakistan's Roshan Digital Account (RDA) reached $203 million in December 2024, marking a 9% increase from November's $186 million, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). Of the December inflows, $13 million was repatriated, and $113 million was used locally, with a net repatriable liability of $76 million. The total number of RDA accounts grew to 778,713, up by 10,319 from the previous month. Cumulatively, RDA inflows reached $9.342 billion, with $1.7 billion repatriated and $5.911 billion utilized locally. The net outstanding liability was $1.73 billion as of Decemberend, with a significant portion in Naya Pakistan Certificates. Additionally, Roshan Equity Investments saw a 16% increase to $59 million. Launched in 2020, the RDA has become a crucial source of foreign exchange for Pakistan, offering competitive returns on dollar investments.