Economy: Fiscal Operations: Fiscal deficit narrows by 24%YoY in 9MFY25 - By AKD Research

May 8 2025


AKD Securities


  • Finance division reported consolidated fiscal accounts for 3QFY25, reporting a quarterly budget deficit of PkR1.4tn (1.2% of GDP), compared to a deficit of PkR1.5tn (1.4% of GDP) in SPLY. Cumulatively, country’s 9MFY25 budget deficit amounted to PkR3.0tn (2.4% of GDP), down 24%YoY.
  • Total revenues grew by 23%YoY during 3QFY25, led by increases in tax revenue, which grew by 26%YoY, while non-tax revenues also improved by 7%YoY. Rise in tax revenues was led by increase in direct taxes (↑21%YoY) and sales tax (↑33%YoY), while non-tax revenues surged due to higher collection from Petroleum Levy (↑15%YoY) and three-fold increase in dividends from SOEs during the quarter.
  • Notably, total expenditures rose by 14%YoY during the quarter, although markup payments remained unchanged at PkR1.3tn, possibly due to declining interest rates, partially offsetting the impact of higher debt levels (GoP total debt: PkR73.0tn, up 13%YoY as of Feb'25).

A PHP Error was encountered

Severity: Notice

Message: Undefined variable: share_research

Filename: views/single.php

Line Number: 74

Backtrace:

File: /var/www/html/application/modules/Research/views/single.php
Line: 74
Function: _error_handler

File: /var/www/html/application/third_party/MX/Loader.php
Line: 351
Function: include

File: /var/www/html/application/third_party/MX/Loader.php
Line: 294
Function: _ci_load

File: /var/www/html/application/modules/Research/controllers/Research.php
Line: 135
Function: view

File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 294
Function: require_once

A PHP Error was encountered

Severity: Warning

Message: Invalid argument supplied for foreach()

Filename: views/single.php

Line Number: 74

Backtrace:

File: /var/www/html/application/modules/Research/views/single.php
Line: 74
Function: _error_handler

File: /var/www/html/application/third_party/MX/Loader.php
Line: 351
Function: include

File: /var/www/html/application/third_party/MX/Loader.php
Line: 294
Function: _ci_load

File: /var/www/html/application/modules/Research/controllers/Research.php
Line: 135
Function: view

File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 294
Function: require_once

Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
  • All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
  • For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 setting a record - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Bullish momentum continued for the KSE-100 index, which gained 1,262 points to close at 131,949. Trading volumes stood at 733mn shares, compared to 900mn shares previously. The index is likely to retest Friday’s high of 132,130; a break above this level could target 133,412, with potential to rise further toward 135,232. On the downside, support is seen in the 130,710-131,600 range. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. Immediate support and resistance are placed at 131,067 and 132,480, respectively.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations. While both sides have reached an understanding, a formal announcement is expected only after the US concludes similar ongoing negotiations with other trade partners. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline. The agreement, when signed, could lead to increased Pakistani imports of US goods — notably crude oil — and potential American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors.
  • The U.S. dollar hovered near its lowest since 2021 against the euro and the weakest since 2015 versus the Swiss franc on Monday, with traders alert for any trade-related headlines in the countdown to President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline. The dollar index , which measures the currency against those three rivals and three more major counterparts, was flat at 96.967, hovering above Tuesday’s nearly 3-1/2-year trough of 96.373.
  • US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he had signed 12 trade letters to be sent out next week ahead of an impending deadline for his tariffs to take effect. “I signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday, probably 12,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, adding that the countries to which the letters would be sent will be announced on the same day. His comments come days before steeper duties — which the president said on Thursday would range between 10 and 70 per cent — are set to take effect on dozens of economies, from Taiwan to the European Union.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By Vector Research

Jul 7 2025


Vector Securities


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations, reaching an understanding on a deal that could shape the future of the country’s key export sectors. The delegation arrived in Washington on Monday with the aim of finalising a long-term reciprocal tariff agreement that would prevent the re-imposition of a 29 per cent tariff on Pakistani exports — primarily textiles and agricultural products. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline.
  • Pakistan and Azerbaijan in a major development Friday signed a partnership agreement. The agreement for investment of a total of $2 billion by Azerbaijan in the economic sector of Pakistan.
  • Foreign exchange companies contributed around $450 million to remittance inflows during June, taking their total contribution to approximately $5 billion in FY25, according to the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP). “We sold about $450m to banks in June, highlighting our growing role in supporting the country’s exchange rate stability,” said Zafar Paracha, Secretary General of ECAP.
Morning News: Azerbaijan to invest $2bn in economic sector WE Research

Jul 7 2025



  • Pakistan and Azerbaijan have signed a significant $2 billion investment agreement, marking a new milestone in bilateral economic relations. The deal, signed in the presence of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, and Azerbaijani Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov, reflects growing investor confidence in Pakistan. It follows a cordial meeting between Prime Minister Sharif and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Khankandi, with a more detailed agreement to be finalized during the Azerbaijani President’s upcoming visit to Pakistan. Both countries committed to further enhancing cooperation across various sectors, including trade, investment, and climate issues, as emphasized by Prime Minister Sharif during his remarks in Shusha.
  • With less than a week before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have reached a preliminary understanding on a trade agreement aimed at securing Pakistan’s key export sectors, particularly textiles and agriculture, from the re-imposition of a 29% tariff. Led by Commerce Secretary Jawad Paal, the Pakistani delegation concluded four days of negotiations in Washington, with a formal announcement expected after the US finalizes talks with other trade partners. The proposed deal includes reciprocal tariff arrangements, increased Pakistani imports of US goods such as crude oil, and potential American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors—including projects like Reko Diq. Officials remain optimistic that the agreement will preserve Pakistan’s access to the US market and revitalize economic ties strained since the Trump-era tariffs.
  • Oil prices dropped over 1% after OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing a larger-than-expected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August, raising fears of oversupply. Brent crude fell to $67.50 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped to $65.68. The hike, up from prior monthly increases of 411,000bpd, reflects a more aggressive push for market share, with Saudi Arabia driving much of the actual output gains. OPEC+ cited strong global demand and low inventories as justification. Goldman Sachs expects a final 550,000bpd increase to be announced for September at the group’s August 3 meeting. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia raised prices for its flagship Arab Light crude in a show of confidence in demand. In a related development, U.S. President Trump indicated higher tariffs will be announced by July 9, with implementation set for August 1.
Market Wrap: Banking on Bulls: KSE-100 Hits a New Milestone - By HMFS Research

Jul 4 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) sustained its upward trajectory in today’s session, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index surging to a fresh intra-day high of 132,130 before closing at 131,949, up by a robust 1,262 points (+0.97%). The rally was supported by sustained investor interest—particularly in the banking sector—as participants continued to rotate into fundamentally sound, undervalued plays amid a supportive macroeconomic backdrop. Trading activity remained strong, with the All-Share Index posting a healthy turnover of 731mn shares, while KSE-100 volumes came in at 199mn shares, indicating broad-based participation. Top volume leaders included, WTL (58mn), BML (36mn), and TREET (30mn). The banking sector emerged as the primary driver of index gains, supported by attractive dividend yields, and compelling P/B valuations. The recent softening in Pakistan’s sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads has further improved investor sentiment by lowering perceived external risk, catalyzing flows into equities. While the momentum remains firmly intact, the market’s proximity to psychological resistance levels suggests room for near-term consolidation, especially as investors may opt to lock in recent gains. However, the medium-term narrative remains constructive, underpinned by prospects of continued IMF engagement, fiscal reforms, and easing external account pressures. We continue to advise investors to remain selective and focus on sectors with resilient fundamentals and earnings visibility. In the current phase of the cycle, valuation discipline, liquidity considerations, and macro-driven event positioning will remain critical in navigating market dynamics.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index closed the session on a strong note, gaining 1,262 points to settle at 131,949. Broad-based buying was seen across key sectors, with Autos, banks, and Power leading the charge. Investor sentiment remained upbeat, supported by improved macros and anticipation of further monetary easing. Looking forward, we have a favorable view on the market in the near term, backed by favorable liquidity conditions, positive policy cues, and foreign interest returning to key sectors. However, intermittent consolidation cannot be ruled out as the index approaches resistance levels.
Fertilizers: Sales to recover in June-2025; albeit inventory level remains high - By JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • As per provisional figures, Urea off-take during Jun-2025 is expected to clock in at 580k tons, arriving at a growth of 20% YoY/ 39% MoM. Cumulatively, Urea off-take is likely to post a negative growth of 23% YoY during 1HCY25. On the other hand, DAP off-take is likely to fall 15% YoY during the month.
  • Company-wise, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to post Urea off-take of 269k tons in Jun-2025, up 4% YoY. This includes 51k tons of granular Urea. Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is likely to post growth 32% YoY, arriving at 205k tons. In terms of market share, EFERT Urea share improved by 3ppts YoY to 35%, while FFC’s share dipped 8ppts YoY during the month.
  • Urea inventory is expected to remain elevated at around 1.3mn tons by the end of 1HCY25. Assuming capacity utilization remains stable at current levels, allowance of export can be a key trigger in our view, helping to mitigate inventory buildup despite the anticipated increase in local sales during 2HCY25.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue - By JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index witnessed a volatile session to close at 130,687, up 343 points DoD. Volumes stood at 900mn shares compared to 1,026mn shares traded in the last session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 131,325 with a break above targeting 132,134, which can extend to 133,412. However, any downside will find support in the range of 129,050-129,870 levels. The RSI and the MACD are heading up, supporting a positive outlook. We advise investors to 'Buy on dips', keeping stoploss below 128,616. The support and resistance levels are placed at 129,867 and 131,415, respectively.
Mari Energies Ltd (MARI): 9MFY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

Jul 1 2025


AKD Securities


  • Mari Energies Ltd (MARI) held its analyst briefing yesterday to discuss 9MFY25 financial results and future outlook
  • The company reported net sales of PkR132.3bn during 9MFY25, down 7%YoY, primarily due to a combination of lower production of 29.3mn boe (down 2%YoY) and softening wellhead prices during the period.
  • Net profit declined by 10%YoY to PkR46.3bn (EPS: PkR38.6), with the contraction attributed to the impact of additional royalty applied to Mari D&P lease during the year.
Economy: KSE-100 outperforms all asset classes for second consecutive year - By AKD Research

Jul 1 2025


AKD Securities


  • Aggressive monetary easing, supported by tight fiscal policy and a strong external account, contributed to a 60.1% return for the KSE-100 in FY25, as it emerged as the bestperforming asset class for the second consecutive year.
  • Banks contributed the most to KSE-100 with 15,160 points during FY25, followed by Fertilizer with 8,292 points, E&Ps with 6,845 points, and Cement with 5,596 points.
  • Mutual Funds turned net buyers in FY25 after three consecutive years of selling, absorbed most of the selling by Foreigners.
Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC): OGDC discovers oil and gas at Fakir-1 in Bitrism E.L., Sindh - By AKD Research

Jun 12 2025


AKD Securities


  • Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd (OGDC) has announced an oil and gas discovery at the exploratory well Fakir-1, located in the Bitrism E.L., Khairpur, Sindh. The company (95% working interest), successfully tested the results in the Lower Goru formation with gas flow reaching 6.4mmcfd, alongside crude oil of 55bpd. We anticipate the aforementioned discovery to contribute an annualized EPS impact of ~PkR0.36/sh for the company.
  • We reiterate our ‘BUY’ stance on OGDC with a Dec’25 target price of PkR371/sh, alongside a DY of 9% during the same period. Our outlook is strengthened due to the following aspects: i) strong production profile, ii) higher future exploration prospects on back of improving liquidity situation, iii) 8.33% stake in highly prospective Reko Diq Mining Project, iv) offshore working interest in Abu Dhabi Offshore Block-5, along with consortium partners and v) improvement in cash payouts.
Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd. (SAZEW): 9MFY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

May 22 2025


AKD Securities


  • Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd. (SAZEW) held its analyst briefing to discuss 9MFY25 results and its future outlook. Following are the key highlights:
  • To recall, company posted topline of PkR81.4bn in 9MFY25 vs PkR34.6bn in 9MFY24, an increase of 2.4xYoY. The said increase is primarily attributed to higher volumetric sales of four wheelers, particularly HAVAL.
  • Company posted earnings of PkR12.9bn (EPS: PkR212.7) in 9MFY25, compared to PkR4.4bn (EPS: PkR73.6) in SPLY, an increase of 2.9xYoY.
Economy: Fiscal Operations: Fiscal deficit narrows by 24%YoY in 9MFY25 - By AKD Research

May 8 2025


AKD Securities


  • Finance division reported consolidated fiscal accounts for 3QFY25, reporting a quarterly budget deficit of PkR1.4tn (1.2% of GDP), compared to a deficit of PkR1.5tn (1.4% of GDP) in SPLY. Cumulatively, country’s 9MFY25 budget deficit amounted to PkR3.0tn (2.4% of GDP), down 24%YoY.
  • Total revenues grew by 23%YoY during 3QFY25, led by increases in tax revenue, which grew by 26%YoY, while non-tax revenues also improved by 7%YoY. Rise in tax revenues was led by increase in direct taxes (↑21%YoY) and sales tax (↑33%YoY), while non-tax revenues surged due to higher collection from Petroleum Levy (↑15%YoY) and three-fold increase in dividends from SOEs during the quarter.
  • Notably, total expenditures rose by 14%YoY during the quarter, although markup payments remained unchanged at PkR1.3tn, possibly due to declining interest rates, partially offsetting the impact of higher debt levels (GoP total debt: PkR73.0tn, up 13%YoY as of Feb'25).
Hub Power Company Ltd (HUBC):3QFY25 Preview: Earnings dip amid PPA setbacks - By AKD Research

Apr 28 2025


AKD Securities


  • We expect Hub Power Company Ltd (HUBC) to post NPAT of PkR10.7bn (EPS: PkR8.25) for 3QFY25, down 38%YoY.
  • HUBC is anticipated to record its lowest consolidated topline in four years, expected to clock in at PkR14.3bn (down 55%YoY/8%QoQ).
  • Mar’25 marked the first month of BYD’s official entry into the domestic auto market, with the commencement of sales for the Atto-3 and Seal models.
Economy: Successful IMF Review to clear the path for KSE-100 - By AKD Research

Mar 3 2025


AKD Securities


  • The KSE-100 remained slightly negative in Feb’25 due to lower-than-expected rate cut and investors awaiting the upcoming IMF review along with concerns over the impact of the U.S. actions.
  • We expect successful completion of upcoming first biannual review of Pakistan’s US$7bn EFF amid expected monetary easing would turn KSE-100 positive.
  • IMF green light to provide impetus: The KSE-100 remained slightly negative in Feb’25 due to lower-than-expected rate cut in Jan’25 MPC and investors awaiting the upcoming IMF review along with concerns over the impact of the U.S. aid freeze and tariffs. We expect successful completion of upcoming first biannual review of Pakistan’s US$7bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF) amid expected monetary easing would turn KSE100 positive. Moreover, significant reduction in inflation and controlled external account position amid subdued economic activity has strengthened case for further monetary easing. With real positive interest rates at 7.5% based on our 12-month forward projections, we anticipate the SBP will cut interest rates by another 250 bps in CY25.
Pakistan Auto: Autos Result Preview: Profitability on the rise - By AKD Research

Jan 21 2025


AKD Securities


  • INDU 2QFY25E earnings to clock in at PAT PkR4.7bn (EPS: PkR60.3): We anticipate INDU to report earnings of PkR4.7bn (EPS: PkR60.3) in 2QFY25E compared to PkR1.7bn (EPS: PkR22.2), a 2.7xYoY increase. The said growth is primarily driven by an increase in total sales volumes, up by 2.4xYoY to 6,383 units compared to 2,687 units in SPLY, given a low base due to supply chain disruptions leading to multiple days of plant shutdown in SPLY. Topline is anticipated to rise by 2.5xYoY, primarily attributed to the aforementioned reasons, and inclusion of Corolla Cross sales. Moreover, gross margins are expected to improve to 14.8% amid decline in CRC/HRC prices, down 12.9%YoY. With regards to opex, higher volumes along with elevated advertisement expenses associated with the launch of Corolla Cross sales would lead to a 27%YoY increase in operating expenses. Overall, 1HFY25, earnings are expected to reach PkR125.1/sh, up 98%YoY. Additionally, we anticipate INDU to announce an interim dividend of PkR36.0/sh, bringing the dividend for the first half to PkR75.0/sh. We maintain a ‘BUY’ call on the scrip with a Dec’25 target price of PkR3,350/sh.
  • HCAR – 3QMY25E earnings to clock in at PAT PkR498mn (EPS: PkR3.49): Honda Atlas Cars (Pakistan) Ltd. (HCAR)’s board is scheduled to announce their 3QMY25E earnings on Jan 22nd 2025, where we expect earnings to clock in at PkR498mn (EPS: PkR3.5) vs. PkR143mn (EPS: PkR1.0) in SPLY, an increase of 3.5xYoY. The said increase in profitability is due to 57%YoY increase in sales volumetric sales, where volumes were slashed during SPLY due to multiple days of plant shutdown amidst supply chain constraints. Subsequently, topline is projected to increase by 50%YoY to PkR18.6bn (vs. PkR12.4bn in 3QMY24). Additionally, gross margins are projected to increase to 8.6%, mainly due to decline in CRC/HRC prices, down 12.9%YoY and enhanced proportion of Civic in sales mix. Additionally, other income is expected to contract by 76%YoY given the absence of ST investments amid decline in customer advances. We have a ‘BUY’ call on the stock with Dec’25 target price of PkR426/sh.