Morning News: IMF tightens conditions for Pakistan to get fresh loans: report - By WE Research

May 20 2025



  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has imposed stricter conditions on future loans to Pakistan, urging significant economic reforms and warning of risks stemming from U.S. trade policies and rising tensions with India. As part of its agreement, Pakistan must secure parliamentary approval for its next federal budget, implement agricultural tax reforms, and outline a plan to phase out industrial incentives. The IMF also demands timely adjustments in energy tariffs and legislative action to restructure energy sector debt. Despite avoiding default in 2023, Pakistan continues to face economic uncertainty due to high interest payments and global trade disruptions, with the IMF estimating a need for over $100 billion in external financing by 2029. Recently, the IMF disbursed $1 billion and approved an additional $1.4 billion for climate resilience, though geopolitical tensions with India, particularly over Kashmir, pose continued fiscal and reputational risks.
  • During a visit to the Korangi Association of Trade and Industry (KATI), Chief Commissioner Inland Revenue Zubair Bilal announced potential relief for the salaried class in the upcoming federal budget and reiterated the Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR) zero-tolerance stance on corruption. He encouraged KATI to submit budget proposals for review and assured regular consultations to address industry concerns, emphasizing that business growth directly benefits the national economy. KATI President Junaid Naqi criticized recurring issues such as arbitrary FBR notices, lack of comprehensive policies, and the burden on compliant taxpayers, especially under IMF-driven tax targets. He strongly opposed FBR’s proposed presence in industrial units, citing constitutional violations. Other KATI leaders echoed concerns over tax system inefficiencies and called for digitization, accountability for evaders, and fair treatment of honest taxpayer.
  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb reaffirmed the government's commitment to harnessing private sector expertise to drive structural reforms, productivity, and export -led growth during a meeting with a Deloitte delegation. The discussion, a follow-up to earlier talks at the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings 2025, focused on collaboration in critical sectors like energy, minerals, health, and climate, particularly through the operationalisation of the Country Partnership Framework (CPF). The Minister emphasized Pakistan’s priority areas—climate resilience and population management—highlighting strategic support over financing needs, supported by the recently approved $1.3 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility. Deloitte expressed support for Pakistan’s reform agenda, and both sides agreed to maintain close coordination to identify high-impact, outcome-based initiatives.

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Technical Outlook: KSE-100 entering the resistance range - By JS Research

May 22 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index showed positive movement to close at 119,931, up 960 points DoD. Volumes stood at 668mn shares compared to 438mn shares traded in the last session. The index is expected to face resistance at 120,797 (all-time intraday high) as a break above may start a new momentum towards 123,375 and 125,947 levels, respectively. However, any downside will find support between 118,740 and 119,340 levels. The RSI and the MACD have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ’Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below 118,527. The support and resistance levels are at 119,338 and 120,315, respectively.
Morning News: IMF yet to decide on budget relief request - By Vector Research

May 22 2025


Vector Securities


  • Seeking effective and practical steps for the realisation of agriculture income tax and improvements in retail sector taxation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has yet to take a position on Pakistan’s request for relief measures in the upcoming budget, due on June 2.
  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb said that Pakistan’s exports to United States of America (USA) is $4.4 billion as compared to imports of US$1.9 billion with the trade surplus of $2.5 billion during current Financial Year 2024-25 (up to March).
  • Pakistan’s total investment plunged into the lowest range despite a slight improvement in the outgoing fiscal year 2024-25, mainly due to the assumption of reliance on increased public investments. Private sector investment stagnated, standing at 9.1 percent in the current fiscal year compared to 9 percent in the last financial year.
Morning News: $2.5bn surplus in trade with US: Aurangzeb - By WE Research

May 22 2025



  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, reported that Pakistan recorded a trade surplus of $2.5 billion with the United States during the current financial year 2024-25 (up to March), with exports at $4.4 billion and imports at $1.9 billion. In the previous year, 2023-24, exports were $5.3 billion and imports $2.2 billion, resulting in a $3.1 billion surplus. Key exports include garments and medical instruments, while major imports consist of cotton, steel scrap, computers, and petroleum products. The U.S. has imposed a 30% reciprocal tariff on Pakistani imports, currently suspended for 90 days, which exporters see as a challenge but also a potential opportunity due to higher tariffs on competitors. In response, the prime minister has formed a Steering Committee and a working group, with the Ministry of Commerce coordinating a comprehensive strategy to engage with U.S. authorities.
  • Gold prices in Pakistan rose significantly on Wednesday, with 24-karat gold reaching Rs349,400 per tola after an increase of Rs6,600, and 10 grams priced at Rs299,554, up Rs5,659, according to the AllPakistan Gems and Jewelers Sarafa Association. The price of 22-karat gold also increased to Rs274,601 per 10 grams. Silver prices followed suit, with 24-karat silver rising to Rs3,466 per tola and Rs2,971 per 10 grams. Internationally, spot gold traded near $3,302 an ounce, up 0.39%, marking its third consecutive daily gain, driven by a softer dollar and heightened safe-haven demand amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
  • Pakistan’s per capita income rose by 9.75% to a record $1,824 in FY2024–25, up from $1,662 the previous year, with the economy’s total size reaching $410.96 billion—a 2.68% annual increase—according to provisional estimates by the Pakistan National Accounts Committee (NAC). In rupee terms, per capita income grew 8.27% to Rs509,174. This growth, driven mainly by a 3.99% rise in the services sector and a modest 1.18% increase in agriculture, helped Pakistan join the world’s 40 largest economies, despite a continued 1.14% contraction in the industrial sector. The NAC also revised earlier quarterly GDP growth estimates and finalized FY23 growth at -0.21% and FY24 at 2.51%. Analysts see the rebound as a sign of resilience amid global and domestic challenges, marking the highest GDP since FY18, when it last approached similar levels before facing economic and political instability.
Power Cement Ltd. (POWER): 9MFY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

May 21 2025


AKD Securities


  • Power cement Ltd. (POWER) held its analyst briefing today to discuss the 9MFY25 financial results and future outlook of the company. Following are the key points:
  • To recall, company posted profit of PkR348mn (EPS: PkR0.07) in 9MFY25 compared to a loss of PkR1.2bn (LPS: PkR1.41) in SPLY. The said improvement in profitability was primarily attributable to lower financial charges (down 35%YoY) during the period amidst falling interest rates and improved operating efficiencies.
  • Company’s total offtakes for 9MFY24 decreased by 19%YoY to 1.7mn tons. This was due to decrease in clinker exports amid falling prices in the international market. Avg. export prices for clinker during the period stood at ~US$30-31/ton
Power Cement Ltd (POWER): Corporate Briefing takeaways - By JS Research

May 21 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Power Cement Ltd (POWER) recently held a corporate briefing session to discuss its results and outlook. The company posted a profit after tax of Rs316mn in 3QFY25, compared to a loss of Rs717mn in 3QFY24. In 9MFY25, earnings stood at Rs349mn compared to a loss of Rs1,187mn in the same period last year.
  • Sales revenue declined by 16% YoY in 3QFY25, mainly due to an 18.9% YoY drop in dispatches. Despite this, gross margins rose 5.6ppts YoY mainly led by cost efficiencies measures and lower coal prices.
  • The management apprised that the company had experienced significantly lower fuel costs in recent quarters, primarily due to lower global coal prices (with current landed cost at Karachi Port around US$100/ton, comprising mostly US coal), and the use of alternative fuels, which now make up 10–20% of the fuel mix and are 25–30% cheaper than coal.
Pakistan Power: Power Generation up 25%YoY in Apr'25 - By AKD Research

May 21 2025


AKD Securities


  • Power generation for Apr’25 clocked in at 10,513GWh, marking an increase of 22%YoY/25% MoM. The rise is driven by elevated cooling demand amid rising temperatures and reduced reliance on captive generation by industries. Key contributors to the power mix during the month were Coal, Hydel, RLNG, and Nuclear sources.
  • Notably, authorities imposed a levy of PkR791/mmbtu on gas-based CPPs during Mar'25, raising gas tariff to PkR4,291/mmbtu. This translates into a significantly higher effective generation cost of ~PkR42/kwh, assuming a thermal efficiency of 35% for off-grid captives utilizing natural gas. The sharp increase in generation cost likely prompted industries to shift towards relatively cheaper grid electricity in the near term, in light of recent reductions in grid tariffs, which is estimated at ~PkR28/kwh (excluding taxes and duties).
  • More positively, the cost of generation declined by 5%YoY/8%MoM to PkR8.95/kWh, compared to PkR9.75/kWh in Apr’24, reflecting improved fuel economics. On a cumulative basis, total power generation during 10MFY25 stood at 100,648GWh, broadly unchanged YoY.
Oil Marketing Companies: OGRA approves ERR for sui companies - By Insight Research

May 21 2025


Insight Securities


  • In a recent development, OGRA has decided a 6.6% increase in gas prices for SNGPL, while reducing SSGCL prices by 5.9%, effective from July’25. OGRA has submitted its decision to the federal government for the issuance of a formal notification outlining category wise consumer gas prices. As per legal requirements, the federal government is expected to finalize the category-wise pricing within 40 days. We believe that the impact of consumers will be marginal due to minimal hike in overall prices. However, RLNG diversion volume remains a key component to look for.
  • OGRA approves meager increase for SNGPL; price set at PKR1,895.2/MMBTU The OGRA has issued its decision on SNGPL petition, where OGRA approved a tariff increase of PKR116.9/MMBTU, setting the prescribed price at PKR1,895.2/MMBTU, which represents a 6.6% increase from the current rate against SNGPL's request for an increase of PKR707/MMBTU. This revised revenue requirement stems from a PKR62.2bn downward adjustment in operating expenses, wherein major deviations stems from adjustment in cost of gas and the disallowance of PKR95.9bn on account of late payment surcharge. Notably, OGRA based its calculations on different oil price and exchange rate assumptions of PKR75.3/bbl for crude and PKR280/US$. SNGPL, in contrast, assumed PKR77/bbl, and PKR287.5/US$, respectively. Furthermore, OGRA revised the RLNG volume downwards to 75,556 MMCF, compared to SNGPL's projected 88,185 MMCF. This adjustment is due to confirmation from PLL that arrangements have been made with ENI to divert cargoes outside Pakistan from Jul’25 to Dec’25. Additionally, while SNGPL had requested PKR317.7/MMBTU for RLNG cost of services for the year, OGRA approved PKR210/MMBTU. This adjustment assumes a reduced RLNG input volume of 325,677 MMBTU, against SNGPL's projected 343,960 MMBTU, amid aforementioned diversion.
  • OGRA has finalized its decision on SSGCL’s petition for FY2025–26, against SSGCL's proposed hike of PKR2,399/MMBTU to bridge a revenue shortfall of PKR888.6bn (including PKR498.7bn from prior years), OGRA has instead recommended a reduction of PKR103.95/MMBTU. This brings the prescribed price down to PKR1,658.56/MMBTU, a 5.9% decrease. OGRA has revised SSGCL’s net revenue requirement down to PKR319.9bn with only PKR34.2bn allowed as prior year adjustment. Major downward revisions include PKR62.2bn in operating expenses. OGRA’s estimates factor in PKR75/bbl for oil and PKR280/US$, contrasting with SSGCL’s assumptions of PKR72.5/bbl and PKR292.
Power Cement Limited (POWER): Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 21 2025


Taurus Securities


  • The management of POWER highlighted that the Company turned into profit after five years amid massive developments i.e. successful plant turnaround, significant payment of a finance cost, improving operational efficiency through better fuel mix and capturing huge market share in high grade cement.
  • On the production and sales front, the management told that net sales dropped 16%YoY in 9MFY25 due to drastic decline in production and sales of Clinker on the back of significant decline in international Clinker prices. However, they expect some recovery in Clinker export prices until Dec’25 i.e. in between USD 35-37 per ton. This will improve profitability of the Company. Further, Operating profit surged 24%YoY in 9MFY25 on account of drop in finance cost (35%YoY) due to lower interest rates along with reduction in operational costs i.e. fuel saving of around 10% by using Agricultural Waste as alternative fuel. Moreover, the management is expecting to pay off significant portion of dividends to preference shareholders (Currently 74.5Mn as outstanding) once it has settled large amount of debt during FY26.
  • According to the management, the Company is using 100% imported coal (mainly from US) with a total cost of around PKR 35-37K per ton. Whereas, total export price per ton of Clicker (70% of total exports) and Cement is currently at USD 35-37 and USD 40-47, respectively. They shared that the recent Plant turnaround made it operating at 100% capacity (capable of utilizing high Sulphur coal to make high grade cement). The current retention price is ~PKR 775-800 per bag.
Power Cement Ltd. (POWER): Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Sheman Research

May 21 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Power Cement Ltd. (POWER) conducted its corporate briefing today to discuss 9MFY25 financial result and future outlook. During the period, company posted net earnings of Rs348mn(EPS Rs0.3) versus net loss of Rs1.2bn (LPS Rs1.1) during the same period last year. During the period, company recorded gross margins of 28% as compared to 22% due to lower energy prices and better retention prices in local and export market.
  • The company has become 2 nd largest cement player in southern region with market share of 19% just behind Lucky Cement.
  • As far as coal mix is concerned, currently plant operates on a mix of Imported and alternate fuel in a ratio of 90% and 10% respectively. Moreover, currently, landed coal price ranges between Rs35-37k. As per management, company is expected to take alternate fuel to 25% in total fuel mix by the next year.
Pakistan Cement: Earnings rise on margin gains, lower finance costs - By JS Research

May 21 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We review 3QFY25 performance of the Cement sector with our sample size of 8 companies. Our sample posted a 2.3x YoY surge in earnings during the quarter, driven primarily by margin expansion (+4.1ppt YoY) and dividend income from subsidiaries — MLPL (~Rs5.6bn) for MLCF and LEPCL (~Rs6.0bn) for LUCK. While local cement dispatches witnessed a mild YoY increase of 2%.
  • Margin improvement on YoY basis in 3QFY25 was largely driven by declining coal prices across both North & South regions, cost efficiencies, and higher retention prices. However, margins declined 2.7ppt QoQ, primarily due to a drop in cement prices in the North.
  • Looking ahead, we expect margins to improve, supported by a recovery in cement prices, especially in the North region (up Rs60/bag since Feb-2025), while low international coal prices are likely to continue benefiting companies operating in the South.
Morning News: $2.5bn surplus in trade with US: Aurangzeb - By WE Research

May 22 2025



  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, reported that Pakistan recorded a trade surplus of $2.5 billion with the United States during the current financial year 2024-25 (up to March), with exports at $4.4 billion and imports at $1.9 billion. In the previous year, 2023-24, exports were $5.3 billion and imports $2.2 billion, resulting in a $3.1 billion surplus. Key exports include garments and medical instruments, while major imports consist of cotton, steel scrap, computers, and petroleum products. The U.S. has imposed a 30% reciprocal tariff on Pakistani imports, currently suspended for 90 days, which exporters see as a challenge but also a potential opportunity due to higher tariffs on competitors. In response, the prime minister has formed a Steering Committee and a working group, with the Ministry of Commerce coordinating a comprehensive strategy to engage with U.S. authorities.
  • Gold prices in Pakistan rose significantly on Wednesday, with 24-karat gold reaching Rs349,400 per tola after an increase of Rs6,600, and 10 grams priced at Rs299,554, up Rs5,659, according to the AllPakistan Gems and Jewelers Sarafa Association. The price of 22-karat gold also increased to Rs274,601 per 10 grams. Silver prices followed suit, with 24-karat silver rising to Rs3,466 per tola and Rs2,971 per 10 grams. Internationally, spot gold traded near $3,302 an ounce, up 0.39%, marking its third consecutive daily gain, driven by a softer dollar and heightened safe-haven demand amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
  • Pakistan’s per capita income rose by 9.75% to a record $1,824 in FY2024–25, up from $1,662 the previous year, with the economy’s total size reaching $410.96 billion—a 2.68% annual increase—according to provisional estimates by the Pakistan National Accounts Committee (NAC). In rupee terms, per capita income grew 8.27% to Rs509,174. This growth, driven mainly by a 3.99% rise in the services sector and a modest 1.18% increase in agriculture, helped Pakistan join the world’s 40 largest economies, despite a continued 1.14% contraction in the industrial sector. The NAC also revised earlier quarterly GDP growth estimates and finalized FY23 growth at -0.21% and FY24 at 2.51%. Analysts see the rebound as a sign of resilience amid global and domestic challenges, marking the highest GDP since FY18, when it last approached similar levels before facing economic and political instability.
Morning News: SIFC facilitates $2.3 billion in foreign investment since inception, NA informed - By WE Research

May 21 2025



  • Since the formation of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) in June 2023, Pakistan has attracted around $2.3 billion in foreign investment, with the council credited for easing investor hurdles and streamlining processes. Federal Minister Dr. Tariq Fazal Chaudhry linked SIFC's work to addressing regional security issues, including tensions related to Indian proxies. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Climate Change highlighted Pakistan’s top ranking on the 2025 Climate Risk Index due to the catastrophic 2022 floods, which caused significant human and economic losses. In cybersecurity, Pakistan advanced into the top tier of the UN Global Cyber Security Index 2024, attributed to institutional reforms and the creation of a national emergency response team. With over 20,700 registered IT companies, the government emphasized its ongoing commitment to economic stability, climate resilience, and technological growth through global collaboration.
  • Pakistan’s leading oil refineries have pledged over $6 billion in refinery upgrade projects aimed at modernizing the country’s refining infrastructure and ensuring long-term energy security. In a meeting with Federal Minister for Petroleum Ali Pervaiz Malik, refinery CEOs expressed appreciation for the government's resolution of a long-standing sales tax issue, which they said fosters a more investment-friendly and efficient environment. The CEOs reaffirmed their commitment to upgrading facilities to produce cleaner, Euro-V compliant fuels in line with the Prime Minister’s vision for sustainable energy. Minister Malik emphasized policy consistency and government support as key to sector viability and attracting foreign investment. The upgrades are expected to enhance fuel quality, reduce emissions, cut dependence on imports, and contribute to environmental sustainability, forming a central part of Pakistan’s broader energy and economic strategy.
  • Kot Addu Power Company Limited (KAPCO) has announced that the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has approved the TriPartite Power Purchase Agreement (TPPA), involving the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA-G), KAPCO, and the National Grid Company of Pakistan. As per NEPRA’s directives in a letter dated May 19, 2025, the signing of the TPPA is contingent upon conducting the Initial Capacity Test (ICT) and Heat Rate Test (HRT). An Independent Engineer will assess and submit the plant's efficiency benchmarks, including Simple Cycle Efficiency and Heat Rate, to NEPRA. Once these steps are completed, the TPPA will become operational, enabling the power plant to commence operations under the new agreement.
Morning News: IMF tightens conditions for Pakistan to get fresh loans: report - By WE Research

May 20 2025



  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has imposed stricter conditions on future loans to Pakistan, urging significant economic reforms and warning of risks stemming from U.S. trade policies and rising tensions with India. As part of its agreement, Pakistan must secure parliamentary approval for its next federal budget, implement agricultural tax reforms, and outline a plan to phase out industrial incentives. The IMF also demands timely adjustments in energy tariffs and legislative action to restructure energy sector debt. Despite avoiding default in 2023, Pakistan continues to face economic uncertainty due to high interest payments and global trade disruptions, with the IMF estimating a need for over $100 billion in external financing by 2029. Recently, the IMF disbursed $1 billion and approved an additional $1.4 billion for climate resilience, though geopolitical tensions with India, particularly over Kashmir, pose continued fiscal and reputational risks.
  • During a visit to the Korangi Association of Trade and Industry (KATI), Chief Commissioner Inland Revenue Zubair Bilal announced potential relief for the salaried class in the upcoming federal budget and reiterated the Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR) zero-tolerance stance on corruption. He encouraged KATI to submit budget proposals for review and assured regular consultations to address industry concerns, emphasizing that business growth directly benefits the national economy. KATI President Junaid Naqi criticized recurring issues such as arbitrary FBR notices, lack of comprehensive policies, and the burden on compliant taxpayers, especially under IMF-driven tax targets. He strongly opposed FBR’s proposed presence in industrial units, citing constitutional violations. Other KATI leaders echoed concerns over tax system inefficiencies and called for digitization, accountability for evaders, and fair treatment of honest taxpayer.
  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb reaffirmed the government's commitment to harnessing private sector expertise to drive structural reforms, productivity, and export -led growth during a meeting with a Deloitte delegation. The discussion, a follow-up to earlier talks at the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings 2025, focused on collaboration in critical sectors like energy, minerals, health, and climate, particularly through the operationalisation of the Country Partnership Framework (CPF). The Minister emphasized Pakistan’s priority areas—climate resilience and population management—highlighting strategic support over financing needs, supported by the recently approved $1.3 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility. Deloitte expressed support for Pakistan’s reform agenda, and both sides agreed to maintain close coordination to identify high-impact, outcome-based initiatives.
Morning News: Over $1bn received from IMF - By WE Research

May 15 2025



  • Pakistan has received over $1 billion from the IMF as the second tranche under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), bringing total disbursements under the program to $2.1 billion. This follows the IMF Executive Board’s first review of Pakistan’s economic progress, which also approved a separate $1.4 billion loan under the Climate Resilience Fund. The EFF, totaling $7 billion over 37 months, aims to support economic stability, structural reforms, and investor confidence. The IMF praised Pakistan’s progress despite global challenges, and SBP Governor Jameel Ahmed expressed optimism that foreign reserves will reach $14 billion by June 2025, aided by strong remittances and a current account surplus.
  • In its latest semi-annual review, Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) has added seven Pakistani companies to its Frontier Market and Small Cap Indexes, enhancing the country's presence in global equity markets. Three cement firms—Fauji Cement, DG Khan Cement, and Maple Leaf Cement—have joined the Frontier Markets Index, increasing Pakistan's representation to 26 companies and potentially drawing $5–8 million in passive inflows. Four additional firms were added to the Small Cap Index, while DG Khan Cement was upgraded and two firms were removed. Despite some not meeting minimum thresholds, a buffer rule allowed their retention. This development is seen as a step toward restoring investor confidence following Pakistan’s 2021 downgrade from Emerging Market to Frontier Market status.
  • Yields on short-term government securities in Pakistan dropped by up to 90 basis points in the May 14, 2025 Treasury Bills (T-bills) auction, reflecting market optimism following the State Bank of Pakistan’s recent 100-bps policy rate cut. The auction saw strong participation, with bids totaling Rs 1.987 trillion, led by high interest in 1-month T-bills. The government accepted Rs 664 billion in bids—exceeding its Rs 550 billion target but below the Rs 716 billion in maturing debt. Cut-off yields now range between 11.24% and 11.35% across different tenors. The decline signals positive investor sentiment and expectations of continued monetary easing, although foreign investment in T-bills has reportedly been impacted by the rate cut.
Morning News: Roshan Digital Accounts cross 0.8 million, total funds surpass $10 billion - By WE Research

May 8 2025



  • As of March 2025, the number of Roshan Digital Accounts (RDA) has exceeded 805,000, with over 8,000 new accounts added in the month, and total funds received crossing the $10 billion mark. Launched in 2020 by the State Bank of Pakistan in partnership with commercial banks, the RDA initiative provides Non-Resident Pakistanis (NRPs) and Pakistan Origin Card holders with digital banking and investment services. In March alone, $235 million was added to these accounts. Of the total inflows, $6.368 billion has been used locally, while $1.733 billion has been repatriated, leaving a net repatriate liability of $1.901 billion. The initiative aims to deepen financial inclusion for overseas Pakistanis, enabling them to participate in property, vehicle, stock market, and charitable ventures in Pakistan.
  • In alignment with its commitments to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Pakistani government plans to phase out the tax-free status of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) over the next decade, starting with reducing the current tax exemption period to nine years from July 2025. The policy shift includes amending tax laws to eliminate fiscal incentives such as tax breaks and subsidies for companies operating in SEZs. A report by consultancy firm AT Kearney, due by June 2025, will evaluate the fiscal impact and effectiveness of these incentives. Going forward, no new or renewed fiscal incentives will be offered, and existing ones will be gradually replaced with cost-based incentives by 2035, while respecting any binding contractual obligations.
  • In response to rising regional tensions following recent Indian aggression, Pakistan's Finance Ministry held an emergency meeting to assess the country's financial resilience and national security. Chaired by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb via Zoom, the meeting included top officials from the State Bank, SECP, and Finance Division. Participants conducted a rapid risk assessment of equity, debt, FX, and interbank markets, reaffirming the stability of Pakistan’s financial system and the government’s commitment to business continuity. The meeting emphasized enhanced vigilance, particularly in cybersecurity and communication infrastructure, and reinforced contingency planning. Regular situation reviews were agreed upon to ensure proactive oversight and reassure financial markets and the broader business community
Morning News: Investment drive launched in UK - By WE Research

May 7 2025



  • Muhammad Ali, Adviser to the Prime Minister on Privatisation, and Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb have launched a strategic investment initiative in the UK to attract foreign direct investment and strengthen Pakistan’s global economic ties. During their two-day visit to London, they are engaging with major international financial institutions—including Deutsche Bank, Berenberg Bank, and Amundi Fund Group—to highlight Pakistan’s privatisation roadmap and long-term investment potential. A key feature of the visit is the Pakistan Investors Day, hosted by Jefferies on May 8, 2025, where Pakistan’s economic reforms and investor-friendly agenda will be showcased. The visit underscores the government’s commitment to transparency, economic stability, and private sector-led growth, positioning Pakistan as an emerging destination for global capital.
  • President Asif Ali Zardari reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to deepening bilateral ties with Russia, emphasizing expanded cooperation in trade, investment, technology, and people-to-people exchanges. Speaking at the 80th Anniversary of Russia's Victory in the Great Patriotic War, he highlighted the growing momentum in Pakistan-Russia relations and praised recent high-level engagements as a foundation for stronger ties. President Zardari extended congratulations to President Putin and the Russian people, acknowledging their resilience and commitment to peace. He recalled Pakistan's historical contributions during World War II and his own 2011 visit to Russia, lauding Russia's role in promoting regional stability and peace, particularly in easing Pakistan-India tensions. He underscored the importance of continued collaboration for regional and global progress.
  • The recent visit of the US Chamber of Commerce and US-Pakistan Business Council (USPBC) delegation to Pakistan, led by Charles Freeman and accompanied by US Charge d’Affaires Ms. Natalie A. Baker, highlighted growing trade and economic ties between the United States and Pakistan. During meetings with Commerce Minister Jam Kamal Khan, the resumption of US soybean exports was praised as a sign of pragmatic cooperation and deepening agricultural trade, with further potential in the cotton sector. Both sides expressed commitment to enhancing bilateral trade and investment, with Pakistan emphasizing its appreciation of the US as its largest export destination and pledging to improve the trade environment through transparent and fair practices. A 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs presents a critical opportunity for dialogue and strategy development. The visit underscored the importance of continued engagement to strengthen economic relations, support job creation, and foster mutual growth
Morning News: Key policy rate slashed by 100bps to 11pc - By WE Research

May 6 2025



  • The State Bank of Pakistan's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the key policy rate by 100 basis points to 11%, citing a sharp drop in inflation due to lower electricity tariffs and easing food prices, bringing the total rate cut since June 2024 to 11 percentage points. Inflation fell to 0.3% year-on-year in April, and core inflation also declined, while real GDP grew by 1.7% in Q2-FY25, driven by improved remittances, a current account surplus, and rising business confidence. Despite some weak industrial segments and agricultural output challenges, the MPC maintained its FY25 growth forecast at 2.5– 3.5% and projected further improvement in FY26, though risks remain from global uncertainty, supply -chain issues, and volatile commodity prices. Foreign exchange reserves are expected to rise to $14 billion by June 2025, and the fiscal deficit is likely to remain on target despite challenges in meeting the primary surplus goal, highlighting the need for sustained reforms in taxation and state-owned enterprises.
  • Efforts are underway to project Pakistan’s real GDP growth at around 3% for FY2024–25, despite low investment and savings rates and weak performance in key sectors. Concerns have been raised over the credibility of this target, especially with contractions in Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM), which declined 1.9% in Jul–Feb FY25, and a significant drop in major crop output, including cotton (down 33%) and maize. Although second-quarter growth was boosted—partly by historically high livestock estimates—reaching 3% would require a nearly 5% growth in the third quarter, which seems unlikely given current sectoral trends. Agriculture remains weak due to water shortages and low crop yields, while multilateral institutions project GDP growth between 2–2.6%. Despite this, internal government bodies, including the Ministry of Planning and Finance, appear eager to portray a higher growth trajectory ahead of the upcoming Economic Survey. The final provisional GDP estimate is expected by May 20, 2025, although independent experts argue growth may not exceed 2% based on the current data trajectory.
  • In April 2025, Pakistan’s overall Business Confidence Index (BCI) rose by 0.4 points to 56.9, according to the latest Business Confidence Survey conducted by the State Bank of Pakistan and IBA, driven by improvements in both the Industry and Services sectors. The Current Business Confidence Index (CBCI), reflecting perceptions over the past six months, climbed 0.9 points to 56, while the Expected Business Confidence Index (EBCI) remained stable at 57.8. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) also improved by 0.7 points to 53.5, signaling moderate expansion. Businesses’ inflation expectations rose slightly by 0.2 points to 64.2. Notably, the Expected Employment Index increased by 1.3 points to 55.3, with both industry and services sectors showing gains. Additionally, capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector edged up by 0.4% to 64.8%, indicating a slight uptick in production activity
Morning News: IMF rejects India’s request on Pakistan loans - By WE Research

May 5 2025



  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has declined India’s request to reconsider Pakistan’s loan arrangements, with IMF representative Mahir Binici confirming that the Executive Board is scheduled to meet on May 9 to review Pakistan’s current loan program and also consider a proposed new climate financing initiative.
  • The Pakistani government is tentatively setting an ambitious tax revenue target of Rs14.3 trillion for fiscal year 2025-26, up by Rs2 trillion from the current year’s downward-revised Rs12.3 trillion target. This new target, representing 11% of projected GDP, may require Rs500 billion in fresh tax measures in addition to the Rs1.3 trillion already imposed this year. Despite these efforts, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is currently facing an Rs830 billion shortfall, reflecting the economy’s limited capacity to bear more tax without structural reforms. The upcoming budget, expected in early June, is being shaped amid IMF scrutiny, with the Fund visiting Pakistan on May 14 to review fiscal plans. Meanwhile, the government has not finalized its stance on business community proposals, including those from the Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry (OICCI), which has advocated for measures like exempting lower income groups, easing tax burdens on compliant taxpayers and businesses, reducing corporate and dividend taxes, and restoring export-related tax benefits. However, many of these are at odds with IMF conditions, complicating fiscal planning ahead of what officials warn will be a “tough” budget cycle.
  • In April 2025, Pakistan’s cement industry recorded a 13.24% year-on-year growth in total cement despatches, reaching 3.342 million tons, driven by a 7.64% increase in domestic sales and a strong 34.56% rise in exports. North-based mills contributed 2.239 million tons, while South-based mills saw a larger growth rate of 27.81%, despatching 1.10 million tons. Despite export gains—especially from the South—domestic sales remained sluggish, with the first ten months of FY25 showing a 5.55% decline in domestic demand and a minor 0.32% dip in total despatches. Exports surged 28.77% during the same period, partially offsetting weak local consumption. The APCMA spokesperson welcomed the export growth but emphasized that one-third of production capacity remains underutilized due to low domestic demand, urging the government to introduce pro-industry policies in the upcoming budget to stimulate construction and boost global competitiveness.
Morning News: SBP buys $5.7bn from interbank market to boost forex reserves - By WE Research

May 2 2025



  • Between June 2024 and January 2025, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) purchased $5.677 billion from the interbank market to boost foreign exchange reserves and meet external debt obligations. In January alone, it bought $154 million, a decline from December’s $536 million. Pakistan posted a current account surplus of $1.2 billion in March and a cumulative surplus of $1.9 billion for the first nine months of FY2025, reversing a $1.7 billion deficit from the previous year. Of the $26 billion in external debt repayments due for FY2025, $16 billion is expected to be refinanced, and $8 billion of the $10 billion net payable has already been repaid. SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad highlighted these measures during meetings with global financial institutions, noting the buildup of forex reserves through market purchases and a strengthened external account.
  • Chairman OGRA Masroor Khan informed the National Assembly Standing Committee on Petroleum that Pakistan has sufficient petroleum reserves to meet both domestic and defense needs and is leveraging technology to combat fuel smuggling. The committee, chaired by Syed Mustafa Mehmood, reviewed petroleum quality, smuggling control, and sectoral strategies. OGRA is collaborating with the FBR to implement a track and trace system and has launched a mobile app for fuel quality verification. Pricing mechanisms based on PSO benchmarks and freight margins were scrutinized, with calls for a review. Newly appointed Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik stressed institutional reforms, enhanced sector sustainability, and a new gas sector plan amid declining consumption. Smuggling remains a challenge despite enforcement actions, including vehicle seizures and tighter border controls, though issues persist in areas like Attock and Chakwal. Discussions also covered dealer margin increases, LPG supply through an MoU between JJVL and SSGC, and constraints on importing oil from Iran due to IMF and FATF obligations. The committee called for stronger border measures and a detailed briefing from the Ministry of Interior on anti-smuggling efforts.
  • The World Bank has approved $108 million in additional financing for two key development projects in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Pakistan, aimed at enhancing rural accessibility and strengthening the tourism sector. The funding includes $78 million for the KP Rural Accessibility Project (KPRAP) to upgrade climate-resilient rural roads, benefiting 1.76 million people, especially in remote and disasterprone areas, with a focus on gender inclusion such as safe school transport for girls. Additionally, $30 million has been allocated to the KP Integrated Tourism Development Project (KITE) to complete road infrastructure to key tourist sites, improve destination management, and support local job creation and heritage preservation. These initiatives are expected to boost access to essential services, climate and economic resilience, and create opportunities for inclusive growth, particularly for women and youth in the province
Morning News: Pakistan’s real growth forecast stays unchanged: State Bank - By WE Research

Apr 29 2025



  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) projects a more optimistic macroeconomic outlook for FY25, citing improving economic indicators, easing financial conditions, and stronger external balances, with real GDP growth expected between 2.5% and 3.5%. While positive trends like declining commodity prices, rising remittances, and improved exports support this view, risks remain, including global protectionist policies, geopolitical tensions, and potential inflation resurgence. Inflation is now projected lower at 5.5–7.5%, down from earlier estimates of 11.5–13.5%, aided by fiscal consolidation, stable energy prices, and food supply. However, fiscal risks such as potential tax revenue shortfalls and weak agricultural performance—particularly in wheat—could limit growth. The SBP’s report underscores that Pakistan’s outlook remains sensitive to external shocks, particularly in trade and global financial markets.
  • In the first half of FY25, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions improved notably, with headline inflation falling to a multi-decade low of 0.7% by March 2025, the current account turning surplus, and the fiscal deficit reaching its lowest level in 20 years, largely due to fiscal consolidation, tight monetary policy, and favorable global commodity trends. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) attributed these gains to a coordinated policy stance, IMF program support, and improved credit ratings. Despite easing inflation and a 1000 basis point cut in policy rate from June 2024 to February 2025, real GDP growth remained modest due to weak Kharif crop production and industrial contraction, though services showed relative strength. A rise in exports and remittances also helped bolster foreign reserves. However, the SBP warned of long-term challenges, emphasizing that weak productivity growth has undermined competitiveness and contributed to economic volatility, calling for structural reforms to enhance productivity and economic resilience.
  • In the first nine months of FY25, Pakistan’s salaried class paid a record Rs391 billion in income tax— nearly 10% of the country’s total income tax collection—highlighting a starkly disproportionate burden compared to other sectors like traders and retailers, who contributed far less. This represents a 56% increase from last year and already exceeds the government’s full-year target by Rs140 billion. Despite paying taxes on gross income without deductions and bearing the brunt of policy changes like reduced tax slabs and surcharges, their plight was not addressed in recent IMF negotiations. In contrast, retailers and wholesalers, many unregistered, paid a fraction of this amount, undermining the fairness of the tax system. With the IMF team set to review Pakistan’s budget in May, officials suggest high salaried-class collections might deter tax relief. Meanwhile, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) faces revenue shortfalls, attributing underperformance to slower economic growth and inflation, despite Rs1.3 trillion in new taxes introduced in the current budget.