Power Cement Ltd. (POWER): 9MFY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

May 21 2025

AKD Securities

• Power cement Ltd. (POWER) held its analyst briefing today to discuss the 9MFY25 financial results and future outlook of the company. Following are the key points:

• To recall, company posted profit of PkR348mn (EPS: PkR0.07) in 9MFY25 compared to a loss of PkR1.2bn (LPS: PkR1.41) in SPLY. The said improvement in profitability was primarily attributable to lower financial charges (down 35%YoY) during the period amidst falling interest rates and improved operating efficiencies.

• Company’s total offtakes for 9MFY24 decreased by 19%YoY to 1.7mn tons. This was due to decrease in clinker exports amid falling prices in the international market. Avg. export prices for clinker during the period stood at ~US$30-31/ton

Power Cement Ltd (POWER): Corporate Briefing takeaways - By JS Research

May 21 2025

JS Global Capital

• Power Cement Ltd (POWER) recently held a corporate briefing session to discuss its results and outlook. The company posted a profit after tax of Rs316mn in 3QFY25, compared to a loss of Rs717mn in 3QFY24. In 9MFY25, earnings stood at Rs349mn compared to a loss of Rs1,187mn in the same period last year.

• Sales revenue declined by 16% YoY in 3QFY25, mainly due to an 18.9% YoY drop in dispatches. Despite this, gross margins rose 5.6ppts YoY mainly led by cost efficiencies measures and lower coal prices.

• The management apprised that the company had experienced significantly lower fuel costs in recent quarters, primarily due to lower global coal prices (with current landed cost at Karachi Port around US$100/ton, comprising mostly US coal), and the use of alternative fuels, which now make up 10–20% of the fuel mix and are 25–30% cheaper than coal.

Pakistan Power: Power Generation up 25%YoY in Apr'25 - By AKD Research

May 21 2025

AKD Securities

• Power generation for Apr’25 clocked in at 10,513GWh, marking an increase of 22%YoY/25% MoM. The rise is driven by elevated cooling demand amid rising temperatures and reduced reliance on captive generation by industries. Key contributors to the power mix during the month were Coal, Hydel, RLNG, and Nuclear sources.

• Notably, authorities imposed a levy of PkR791/mmbtu on gas-based CPPs during Mar'25, raising gas tariff to PkR4,291/mmbtu. This translates into a significantly higher effective generation cost of ~PkR42/kwh, assuming a thermal efficiency of 35% for off-grid captives utilizing natural gas. The sharp increase in generation cost likely prompted industries to shift towards relatively cheaper grid electricity in the near term, in light of recent reductions in grid tariffs, which is estimated at ~PkR28/kwh (excluding taxes and duties).

• More positively, the cost of generation declined by 5%YoY/8%MoM to PkR8.95/kWh, compared to PkR9.75/kWh in Apr’24, reflecting improved fuel economics. On a cumulative basis, total power generation during 10MFY25 stood at 100,648GWh, broadly unchanged YoY.

Oil Marketing Companies: OGRA approves ERR for sui companies - By Insight Research

May 21 2025

Insight Securities

• In a recent development, OGRA has decided a 6.6% increase in gas prices for SNGPL, while reducing SSGCL prices by 5.9%, effective from July’25. OGRA has submitted its decision to the federal government for the issuance of a formal notification outlining category wise consumer gas prices. As per legal requirements, the federal government is expected to finalize the category-wise pricing within 40 days. We believe that the impact of consumers will be marginal due to minimal hike in overall prices. However, RLNG diversion volume remains a key component to look for.

• OGRA approves meager increase for SNGPL; price set at PKR1,895.2/MMBTU The OGRA has issued its decision on SNGPL petition, where OGRA approved a tariff increase of PKR116.9/MMBTU, setting the prescribed price at PKR1,895.2/MMBTU, which represents a 6.6% increase from the current rate against SNGPL's request for an increase of PKR707/MMBTU. This revised revenue requirement stems from a PKR62.2bn downward adjustment in operating expenses, wherein major deviations stems from adjustment in cost of gas and the disallowance of PKR95.9bn on account of late payment surcharge. Notably, OGRA based its calculations on different oil price and exchange rate assumptions of PKR75.3/bbl for crude and PKR280/US$. SNGPL, in contrast, assumed PKR77/bbl, and PKR287.5/US$, respectively. Furthermore, OGRA revised the RLNG volume downwards to 75,556 MMCF, compared to SNGPL's projected 88,185 MMCF. This adjustment is due to confirmation from PLL that arrangements have been made with ENI to divert cargoes outside Pakistan from Jul’25 to Dec’25. Additionally, while SNGPL had requested PKR317.7/MMBTU for RLNG cost of services for the year, OGRA approved PKR210/MMBTU. This adjustment assumes a reduced RLNG input volume of 325,677 MMBTU, against SNGPL's projected 343,960 MMBTU, amid aforementioned diversion.

• OGRA has finalized its decision on SSGCL’s petition for FY2025–26, against SSGCL's proposed hike of PKR2,399/MMBTU to bridge a revenue shortfall of PKR888.6bn (including PKR498.7bn from prior years), OGRA has instead recommended a reduction of PKR103.95/MMBTU. This brings the prescribed price down to PKR1,658.56/MMBTU, a 5.9% decrease. OGRA has revised SSGCL’s net revenue requirement down to PKR319.9bn with only PKR34.2bn allowed as prior year adjustment. Major downward revisions include PKR62.2bn in operating expenses. OGRA’s estimates factor in PKR75/bbl for oil and PKR280/US$, contrasting with SSGCL’s assumptions of PKR72.5/bbl and PKR292.

Power Cement Limited (POWER): Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 21 2025

Taurus Securities

• The management of POWER highlighted that the Company turned into profit after five years amid massive developments i.e. successful plant turnaround, significant payment of a finance cost, improving operational efficiency through better fuel mix and capturing huge market share in high grade cement.

• On the production and sales front, the management told that net sales dropped 16%YoY in 9MFY25 due to drastic decline in production and sales of Clinker on the back of significant decline in international Clinker prices. However, they expect some recovery in Clinker export prices until Dec’25 i.e. in between USD 35-37 per ton. This will improve profitability of the Company. Further, Operating profit surged 24%YoY in 9MFY25 on account of drop in finance cost (35%YoY) due to lower interest rates along with reduction in operational costs i.e. fuel saving of around 10% by using Agricultural Waste as alternative fuel. Moreover, the management is expecting to pay off significant portion of dividends to preference shareholders (Currently 74.5Mn as outstanding) once it has settled large amount of debt during FY26.

• According to the management, the Company is using 100% imported coal (mainly from US) with a total cost of around PKR 35-37K per ton. Whereas, total export price per ton of Clicker (70% of total exports) and Cement is currently at USD 35-37 and USD 40-47, respectively. They shared that the recent Plant turnaround made it operating at 100% capacity (capable of utilizing high Sulphur coal to make high grade cement). The current retention price is ~PKR 775-800 per bag.

Power Cement Ltd. (POWER): Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Sheman Research

May 21 2025

Sherman Securities

• Power Cement Ltd. (POWER) conducted its corporate briefing today to discuss 9MFY25 financial result and future outlook. During the period, company posted net earnings of Rs348mn(EPS Rs0.3) versus net loss of Rs1.2bn (LPS Rs1.1) during the same period last year. During the period, company recorded gross margins of 28% as compared to 22% due to lower energy prices and better retention prices in local and export market.

• The company has become 2 nd largest cement player in southern region with market share of 19% just behind Lucky Cement.

• As far as coal mix is concerned, currently plant operates on a mix of Imported and alternate fuel in a ratio of 90% and 10% respectively. Moreover, currently, landed coal price ranges between Rs35-37k. As per management, company is expected to take alternate fuel to 25% in total fuel mix by the next year.

Pakistan Cement: Earnings rise on margin gains, lower finance costs - By JS Research

May 21 2025

JS Global Capital

• We review 3QFY25 performance of the Cement sector with our sample size of 8 companies. Our sample posted a 2.3x YoY surge in earnings during the quarter, driven primarily by margin expansion (+4.1ppt YoY) and dividend income from subsidiaries — MLPL (~Rs5.6bn) for MLCF and LEPCL (~Rs6.0bn) for LUCK. While local cement dispatches witnessed a mild YoY increase of 2%.

• Margin improvement on YoY basis in 3QFY25 was largely driven by declining coal prices across both North & South regions, cost efficiencies, and higher retention prices. However, margins declined 2.7ppt QoQ, primarily due to a drop in cement prices in the North.

• Looking ahead, we expect margins to improve, supported by a recovery in cement prices, especially in the North region (up Rs60/bag since Feb-2025), while low international coal prices are likely to continue benefiting companies operating in the South.

Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Consolidation expected above key averages - By JS Research

May 21 2025

JS Global Capital

• The KSE-100 index after making a high of 119,900 slid to close at 118,971, down 719 points DoD. Volumes stood at 438mn shares compared to 425mn shares traded in the previous session. The index is likely to revisit yesterday’s low of 118,527 where a drop below targeting the range between 115,330 and 115,750 levels. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 119,130-119,900. The RSI has moved down, while the MACD is heading up, supporting a neutral view. We advise investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance levels are at 118,365 and 119,739, respectively

Morning News: Q3FY25; Economy posts 2.4pc growth - By Vector Research

May 21 2025

Vector Securities

• Pakistan’s economy recorded a 2.4 percent growth in the third quarter (January– March) of fiscal year 2024–25, as reported by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Tuesday. Despite a 1.14 percent contraction in the industrial sector during the third quarter (January–March) of fiscal year 2024–25, Pakistan’s economy achieved a 2.4 per cent GDP growth, according to the PBS following the 113th National Accounts Committee (NAC) meeting.

• The World Bank (WB) has deferred the approval of additional International Development Association (IDA) credit in the equivalent amount of $70 million to Pakistan Raises Revenue (PRR) project, which was aimed at providing additional investment financing to the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), in support of its new Transformation Plan, official sources revealed.

• The Petroleum Division (PD) has sent a summary to the Cabinet Committee for Disposal of Legislative Cases (CCLC), seeking carbon levy of Rs2.50 per litre on petrol, diesel and furnace oil by June end for budgetary year FY26. The carbon levy will be hiked to Rs5 per litre on POL products in FY27.

Morning News: SIFC facilitates $2.3 billion in foreign investment since inception, NA informed - By WE Research

May 21 2025

• Since the formation of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) in June 2023, Pakistan has attracted around $2.3 billion in foreign investment, with the council credited for easing investor hurdles and streamlining processes. Federal Minister Dr. Tariq Fazal Chaudhry linked SIFC's work to addressing regional security issues, including tensions related to Indian proxies. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Climate Change highlighted Pakistan’s top ranking on the 2025 Climate Risk Index due to the catastrophic 2022 floods, which caused significant human and economic losses. In cybersecurity, Pakistan advanced into the top tier of the UN Global Cyber Security Index 2024, attributed to institutional reforms and the creation of a national emergency response team. With over 20,700 registered IT companies, the government emphasized its ongoing commitment to economic stability, climate resilience, and technological growth through global collaboration.

• Pakistan’s leading oil refineries have pledged over $6 billion in refinery upgrade projects aimed at modernizing the country’s refining infrastructure and ensuring long-term energy security. In a meeting with Federal Minister for Petroleum Ali Pervaiz Malik, refinery CEOs expressed appreciation for the government's resolution of a long-standing sales tax issue, which they said fosters a more investment-friendly and efficient environment. The CEOs reaffirmed their commitment to upgrading facilities to produce cleaner, Euro-V compliant fuels in line with the Prime Minister’s vision for sustainable energy. Minister Malik emphasized policy consistency and government support as key to sector viability and attracting foreign investment. The upgrades are expected to enhance fuel quality, reduce emissions, cut dependence on imports, and contribute to environmental sustainability, forming a central part of Pakistan’s broader energy and economic strategy.

• Kot Addu Power Company Limited (KAPCO) has announced that the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has approved the TriPartite Power Purchase Agreement (TPPA), involving the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA-G), KAPCO, and the National Grid Company of Pakistan. As per NEPRA’s directives in a letter dated May 19, 2025, the signing of the TPPA is contingent upon conducting the Initial Capacity Test (ICT) and Heat Rate Test (HRT). An Independent Engineer will assess and submit the plant's efficiency benchmarks, including Simple Cycle Efficiency and Heat Rate, to NEPRA. Once these steps are completed, the TPPA will become operational, enabling the power plant to commence operations under the new agreement.