Morning News: $2.5bn surplus in trade with US: Aurangzeb - By WE Research

May 22 2025



  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, reported that Pakistan recorded a trade surplus of $2.5 billion with the United States during the current financial year 2024-25 (up to March), with exports at $4.4 billion and imports at $1.9 billion. In the previous year, 2023-24, exports were $5.3 billion and imports $2.2 billion, resulting in a $3.1 billion surplus. Key exports include garments and medical instruments, while major imports consist of cotton, steel scrap, computers, and petroleum products. The U.S. has imposed a 30% reciprocal tariff on Pakistani imports, currently suspended for 90 days, which exporters see as a challenge but also a potential opportunity due to higher tariffs on competitors. In response, the prime minister has formed a Steering Committee and a working group, with the Ministry of Commerce coordinating a comprehensive strategy to engage with U.S. authorities.
  • Gold prices in Pakistan rose significantly on Wednesday, with 24-karat gold reaching Rs349,400 per tola after an increase of Rs6,600, and 10 grams priced at Rs299,554, up Rs5,659, according to the AllPakistan Gems and Jewelers Sarafa Association. The price of 22-karat gold also increased to Rs274,601 per 10 grams. Silver prices followed suit, with 24-karat silver rising to Rs3,466 per tola and Rs2,971 per 10 grams. Internationally, spot gold traded near $3,302 an ounce, up 0.39%, marking its third consecutive daily gain, driven by a softer dollar and heightened safe-haven demand amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
  • Pakistan’s per capita income rose by 9.75% to a record $1,824 in FY2024–25, up from $1,662 the previous year, with the economy’s total size reaching $410.96 billion—a 2.68% annual increase—according to provisional estimates by the Pakistan National Accounts Committee (NAC). In rupee terms, per capita income grew 8.27% to Rs509,174. This growth, driven mainly by a 3.99% rise in the services sector and a modest 1.18% increase in agriculture, helped Pakistan join the world’s 40 largest economies, despite a continued 1.14% contraction in the industrial sector. The NAC also revised earlier quarterly GDP growth estimates and finalized FY23 growth at -0.21% and FY24 at 2.51%. Analysts see the rebound as a sign of resilience amid global and domestic challenges, marking the highest GDP since FY18, when it last approached similar levels before facing economic and political instability.

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Technical Outlook: KSE-100 entering the resistance range - By JS Research

May 22 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index showed positive movement to close at 119,931, up 960 points DoD. Volumes stood at 668mn shares compared to 438mn shares traded in the last session. The index is expected to face resistance at 120,797 (all-time intraday high) as a break above may start a new momentum towards 123,375 and 125,947 levels, respectively. However, any downside will find support between 118,740 and 119,340 levels. The RSI and the MACD have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to ’Buy on dips’, keeping stoploss below 118,527. The support and resistance levels are at 119,338 and 120,315, respectively.
Morning News: IMF yet to decide on budget relief request - By Vector Research

May 22 2025


Vector Securities


  • Seeking effective and practical steps for the realisation of agriculture income tax and improvements in retail sector taxation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has yet to take a position on Pakistan’s request for relief measures in the upcoming budget, due on June 2.
  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb said that Pakistan’s exports to United States of America (USA) is $4.4 billion as compared to imports of US$1.9 billion with the trade surplus of $2.5 billion during current Financial Year 2024-25 (up to March).
  • Pakistan’s total investment plunged into the lowest range despite a slight improvement in the outgoing fiscal year 2024-25, mainly due to the assumption of reliance on increased public investments. Private sector investment stagnated, standing at 9.1 percent in the current fiscal year compared to 9 percent in the last financial year.
Morning News: $2.5bn surplus in trade with US: Aurangzeb - By WE Research

May 22 2025



  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, reported that Pakistan recorded a trade surplus of $2.5 billion with the United States during the current financial year 2024-25 (up to March), with exports at $4.4 billion and imports at $1.9 billion. In the previous year, 2023-24, exports were $5.3 billion and imports $2.2 billion, resulting in a $3.1 billion surplus. Key exports include garments and medical instruments, while major imports consist of cotton, steel scrap, computers, and petroleum products. The U.S. has imposed a 30% reciprocal tariff on Pakistani imports, currently suspended for 90 days, which exporters see as a challenge but also a potential opportunity due to higher tariffs on competitors. In response, the prime minister has formed a Steering Committee and a working group, with the Ministry of Commerce coordinating a comprehensive strategy to engage with U.S. authorities.
  • Gold prices in Pakistan rose significantly on Wednesday, with 24-karat gold reaching Rs349,400 per tola after an increase of Rs6,600, and 10 grams priced at Rs299,554, up Rs5,659, according to the AllPakistan Gems and Jewelers Sarafa Association. The price of 22-karat gold also increased to Rs274,601 per 10 grams. Silver prices followed suit, with 24-karat silver rising to Rs3,466 per tola and Rs2,971 per 10 grams. Internationally, spot gold traded near $3,302 an ounce, up 0.39%, marking its third consecutive daily gain, driven by a softer dollar and heightened safe-haven demand amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
  • Pakistan’s per capita income rose by 9.75% to a record $1,824 in FY2024–25, up from $1,662 the previous year, with the economy’s total size reaching $410.96 billion—a 2.68% annual increase—according to provisional estimates by the Pakistan National Accounts Committee (NAC). In rupee terms, per capita income grew 8.27% to Rs509,174. This growth, driven mainly by a 3.99% rise in the services sector and a modest 1.18% increase in agriculture, helped Pakistan join the world’s 40 largest economies, despite a continued 1.14% contraction in the industrial sector. The NAC also revised earlier quarterly GDP growth estimates and finalized FY23 growth at -0.21% and FY24 at 2.51%. Analysts see the rebound as a sign of resilience amid global and domestic challenges, marking the highest GDP since FY18, when it last approached similar levels before facing economic and political instability.
Power Cement Ltd. (POWER): 9MFY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways - By AKD Research

May 21 2025


AKD Securities


  • Power cement Ltd. (POWER) held its analyst briefing today to discuss the 9MFY25 financial results and future outlook of the company. Following are the key points:
  • To recall, company posted profit of PkR348mn (EPS: PkR0.07) in 9MFY25 compared to a loss of PkR1.2bn (LPS: PkR1.41) in SPLY. The said improvement in profitability was primarily attributable to lower financial charges (down 35%YoY) during the period amidst falling interest rates and improved operating efficiencies.
  • Company’s total offtakes for 9MFY24 decreased by 19%YoY to 1.7mn tons. This was due to decrease in clinker exports amid falling prices in the international market. Avg. export prices for clinker during the period stood at ~US$30-31/ton
Power Cement Ltd (POWER): Corporate Briefing takeaways - By JS Research

May 21 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Power Cement Ltd (POWER) recently held a corporate briefing session to discuss its results and outlook. The company posted a profit after tax of Rs316mn in 3QFY25, compared to a loss of Rs717mn in 3QFY24. In 9MFY25, earnings stood at Rs349mn compared to a loss of Rs1,187mn in the same period last year.
  • Sales revenue declined by 16% YoY in 3QFY25, mainly due to an 18.9% YoY drop in dispatches. Despite this, gross margins rose 5.6ppts YoY mainly led by cost efficiencies measures and lower coal prices.
  • The management apprised that the company had experienced significantly lower fuel costs in recent quarters, primarily due to lower global coal prices (with current landed cost at Karachi Port around US$100/ton, comprising mostly US coal), and the use of alternative fuels, which now make up 10–20% of the fuel mix and are 25–30% cheaper than coal.
Pakistan Power: Power Generation up 25%YoY in Apr'25 - By AKD Research

May 21 2025


AKD Securities


  • Power generation for Apr’25 clocked in at 10,513GWh, marking an increase of 22%YoY/25% MoM. The rise is driven by elevated cooling demand amid rising temperatures and reduced reliance on captive generation by industries. Key contributors to the power mix during the month were Coal, Hydel, RLNG, and Nuclear sources.
  • Notably, authorities imposed a levy of PkR791/mmbtu on gas-based CPPs during Mar'25, raising gas tariff to PkR4,291/mmbtu. This translates into a significantly higher effective generation cost of ~PkR42/kwh, assuming a thermal efficiency of 35% for off-grid captives utilizing natural gas. The sharp increase in generation cost likely prompted industries to shift towards relatively cheaper grid electricity in the near term, in light of recent reductions in grid tariffs, which is estimated at ~PkR28/kwh (excluding taxes and duties).
  • More positively, the cost of generation declined by 5%YoY/8%MoM to PkR8.95/kWh, compared to PkR9.75/kWh in Apr’24, reflecting improved fuel economics. On a cumulative basis, total power generation during 10MFY25 stood at 100,648GWh, broadly unchanged YoY.
Oil Marketing Companies: OGRA approves ERR for sui companies - By Insight Research

May 21 2025


Insight Securities


  • In a recent development, OGRA has decided a 6.6% increase in gas prices for SNGPL, while reducing SSGCL prices by 5.9%, effective from July’25. OGRA has submitted its decision to the federal government for the issuance of a formal notification outlining category wise consumer gas prices. As per legal requirements, the federal government is expected to finalize the category-wise pricing within 40 days. We believe that the impact of consumers will be marginal due to minimal hike in overall prices. However, RLNG diversion volume remains a key component to look for.
  • OGRA approves meager increase for SNGPL; price set at PKR1,895.2/MMBTU The OGRA has issued its decision on SNGPL petition, where OGRA approved a tariff increase of PKR116.9/MMBTU, setting the prescribed price at PKR1,895.2/MMBTU, which represents a 6.6% increase from the current rate against SNGPL's request for an increase of PKR707/MMBTU. This revised revenue requirement stems from a PKR62.2bn downward adjustment in operating expenses, wherein major deviations stems from adjustment in cost of gas and the disallowance of PKR95.9bn on account of late payment surcharge. Notably, OGRA based its calculations on different oil price and exchange rate assumptions of PKR75.3/bbl for crude and PKR280/US$. SNGPL, in contrast, assumed PKR77/bbl, and PKR287.5/US$, respectively. Furthermore, OGRA revised the RLNG volume downwards to 75,556 MMCF, compared to SNGPL's projected 88,185 MMCF. This adjustment is due to confirmation from PLL that arrangements have been made with ENI to divert cargoes outside Pakistan from Jul’25 to Dec’25. Additionally, while SNGPL had requested PKR317.7/MMBTU for RLNG cost of services for the year, OGRA approved PKR210/MMBTU. This adjustment assumes a reduced RLNG input volume of 325,677 MMBTU, against SNGPL's projected 343,960 MMBTU, amid aforementioned diversion.
  • OGRA has finalized its decision on SSGCL’s petition for FY2025–26, against SSGCL's proposed hike of PKR2,399/MMBTU to bridge a revenue shortfall of PKR888.6bn (including PKR498.7bn from prior years), OGRA has instead recommended a reduction of PKR103.95/MMBTU. This brings the prescribed price down to PKR1,658.56/MMBTU, a 5.9% decrease. OGRA has revised SSGCL’s net revenue requirement down to PKR319.9bn with only PKR34.2bn allowed as prior year adjustment. Major downward revisions include PKR62.2bn in operating expenses. OGRA’s estimates factor in PKR75/bbl for oil and PKR280/US$, contrasting with SSGCL’s assumptions of PKR72.5/bbl and PKR292.
Power Cement Limited (POWER): Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Taurus Research

May 21 2025


Taurus Securities


  • The management of POWER highlighted that the Company turned into profit after five years amid massive developments i.e. successful plant turnaround, significant payment of a finance cost, improving operational efficiency through better fuel mix and capturing huge market share in high grade cement.
  • On the production and sales front, the management told that net sales dropped 16%YoY in 9MFY25 due to drastic decline in production and sales of Clinker on the back of significant decline in international Clinker prices. However, they expect some recovery in Clinker export prices until Dec’25 i.e. in between USD 35-37 per ton. This will improve profitability of the Company. Further, Operating profit surged 24%YoY in 9MFY25 on account of drop in finance cost (35%YoY) due to lower interest rates along with reduction in operational costs i.e. fuel saving of around 10% by using Agricultural Waste as alternative fuel. Moreover, the management is expecting to pay off significant portion of dividends to preference shareholders (Currently 74.5Mn as outstanding) once it has settled large amount of debt during FY26.
  • According to the management, the Company is using 100% imported coal (mainly from US) with a total cost of around PKR 35-37K per ton. Whereas, total export price per ton of Clicker (70% of total exports) and Cement is currently at USD 35-37 and USD 40-47, respectively. They shared that the recent Plant turnaround made it operating at 100% capacity (capable of utilizing high Sulphur coal to make high grade cement). The current retention price is ~PKR 775-800 per bag.
Power Cement Ltd. (POWER): Corporate Briefing Takeaways - By Sheman Research

May 21 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Power Cement Ltd. (POWER) conducted its corporate briefing today to discuss 9MFY25 financial result and future outlook. During the period, company posted net earnings of Rs348mn(EPS Rs0.3) versus net loss of Rs1.2bn (LPS Rs1.1) during the same period last year. During the period, company recorded gross margins of 28% as compared to 22% due to lower energy prices and better retention prices in local and export market.
  • The company has become 2 nd largest cement player in southern region with market share of 19% just behind Lucky Cement.
  • As far as coal mix is concerned, currently plant operates on a mix of Imported and alternate fuel in a ratio of 90% and 10% respectively. Moreover, currently, landed coal price ranges between Rs35-37k. As per management, company is expected to take alternate fuel to 25% in total fuel mix by the next year.
Pakistan Cement: Earnings rise on margin gains, lower finance costs - By JS Research

May 21 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We review 3QFY25 performance of the Cement sector with our sample size of 8 companies. Our sample posted a 2.3x YoY surge in earnings during the quarter, driven primarily by margin expansion (+4.1ppt YoY) and dividend income from subsidiaries — MLPL (~Rs5.6bn) for MLCF and LEPCL (~Rs6.0bn) for LUCK. While local cement dispatches witnessed a mild YoY increase of 2%.
  • Margin improvement on YoY basis in 3QFY25 was largely driven by declining coal prices across both North & South regions, cost efficiencies, and higher retention prices. However, margins declined 2.7ppt QoQ, primarily due to a drop in cement prices in the North.
  • Looking ahead, we expect margins to improve, supported by a recovery in cement prices, especially in the North region (up Rs60/bag since Feb-2025), while low international coal prices are likely to continue benefiting companies operating in the South.
Morning News: $2.5bn surplus in trade with US: Aurangzeb - By WE Research

May 22 2025



  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, reported that Pakistan recorded a trade surplus of $2.5 billion with the United States during the current financial year 2024-25 (up to March), with exports at $4.4 billion and imports at $1.9 billion. In the previous year, 2023-24, exports were $5.3 billion and imports $2.2 billion, resulting in a $3.1 billion surplus. Key exports include garments and medical instruments, while major imports consist of cotton, steel scrap, computers, and petroleum products. The U.S. has imposed a 30% reciprocal tariff on Pakistani imports, currently suspended for 90 days, which exporters see as a challenge but also a potential opportunity due to higher tariffs on competitors. In response, the prime minister has formed a Steering Committee and a working group, with the Ministry of Commerce coordinating a comprehensive strategy to engage with U.S. authorities.
  • Gold prices in Pakistan rose significantly on Wednesday, with 24-karat gold reaching Rs349,400 per tola after an increase of Rs6,600, and 10 grams priced at Rs299,554, up Rs5,659, according to the AllPakistan Gems and Jewelers Sarafa Association. The price of 22-karat gold also increased to Rs274,601 per 10 grams. Silver prices followed suit, with 24-karat silver rising to Rs3,466 per tola and Rs2,971 per 10 grams. Internationally, spot gold traded near $3,302 an ounce, up 0.39%, marking its third consecutive daily gain, driven by a softer dollar and heightened safe-haven demand amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
  • Pakistan’s per capita income rose by 9.75% to a record $1,824 in FY2024–25, up from $1,662 the previous year, with the economy’s total size reaching $410.96 billion—a 2.68% annual increase—according to provisional estimates by the Pakistan National Accounts Committee (NAC). In rupee terms, per capita income grew 8.27% to Rs509,174. This growth, driven mainly by a 3.99% rise in the services sector and a modest 1.18% increase in agriculture, helped Pakistan join the world’s 40 largest economies, despite a continued 1.14% contraction in the industrial sector. The NAC also revised earlier quarterly GDP growth estimates and finalized FY23 growth at -0.21% and FY24 at 2.51%. Analysts see the rebound as a sign of resilience amid global and domestic challenges, marking the highest GDP since FY18, when it last approached similar levels before facing economic and political instability.
Morning News: Key policy rate slashed by 100bps to 11pc - By WE Research

May 6 2025



  • The State Bank of Pakistan's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the key policy rate by 100 basis points to 11%, citing a sharp drop in inflation due to lower electricity tariffs and easing food prices, bringing the total rate cut since June 2024 to 11 percentage points. Inflation fell to 0.3% year-on-year in April, and core inflation also declined, while real GDP grew by 1.7% in Q2-FY25, driven by improved remittances, a current account surplus, and rising business confidence. Despite some weak industrial segments and agricultural output challenges, the MPC maintained its FY25 growth forecast at 2.5– 3.5% and projected further improvement in FY26, though risks remain from global uncertainty, supply -chain issues, and volatile commodity prices. Foreign exchange reserves are expected to rise to $14 billion by June 2025, and the fiscal deficit is likely to remain on target despite challenges in meeting the primary surplus goal, highlighting the need for sustained reforms in taxation and state-owned enterprises.
  • Efforts are underway to project Pakistan’s real GDP growth at around 3% for FY2024–25, despite low investment and savings rates and weak performance in key sectors. Concerns have been raised over the credibility of this target, especially with contractions in Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM), which declined 1.9% in Jul–Feb FY25, and a significant drop in major crop output, including cotton (down 33%) and maize. Although second-quarter growth was boosted—partly by historically high livestock estimates—reaching 3% would require a nearly 5% growth in the third quarter, which seems unlikely given current sectoral trends. Agriculture remains weak due to water shortages and low crop yields, while multilateral institutions project GDP growth between 2–2.6%. Despite this, internal government bodies, including the Ministry of Planning and Finance, appear eager to portray a higher growth trajectory ahead of the upcoming Economic Survey. The final provisional GDP estimate is expected by May 20, 2025, although independent experts argue growth may not exceed 2% based on the current data trajectory.
  • In April 2025, Pakistan’s overall Business Confidence Index (BCI) rose by 0.4 points to 56.9, according to the latest Business Confidence Survey conducted by the State Bank of Pakistan and IBA, driven by improvements in both the Industry and Services sectors. The Current Business Confidence Index (CBCI), reflecting perceptions over the past six months, climbed 0.9 points to 56, while the Expected Business Confidence Index (EBCI) remained stable at 57.8. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) also improved by 0.7 points to 53.5, signaling moderate expansion. Businesses’ inflation expectations rose slightly by 0.2 points to 64.2. Notably, the Expected Employment Index increased by 1.3 points to 55.3, with both industry and services sectors showing gains. Additionally, capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector edged up by 0.4% to 64.8%, indicating a slight uptick in production activity
Morning News: Pakistan’s real growth forecast stays unchanged: State Bank - By WE Research

Apr 29 2025



  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) projects a more optimistic macroeconomic outlook for FY25, citing improving economic indicators, easing financial conditions, and stronger external balances, with real GDP growth expected between 2.5% and 3.5%. While positive trends like declining commodity prices, rising remittances, and improved exports support this view, risks remain, including global protectionist policies, geopolitical tensions, and potential inflation resurgence. Inflation is now projected lower at 5.5–7.5%, down from earlier estimates of 11.5–13.5%, aided by fiscal consolidation, stable energy prices, and food supply. However, fiscal risks such as potential tax revenue shortfalls and weak agricultural performance—particularly in wheat—could limit growth. The SBP’s report underscores that Pakistan’s outlook remains sensitive to external shocks, particularly in trade and global financial markets.
  • In the first half of FY25, Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions improved notably, with headline inflation falling to a multi-decade low of 0.7% by March 2025, the current account turning surplus, and the fiscal deficit reaching its lowest level in 20 years, largely due to fiscal consolidation, tight monetary policy, and favorable global commodity trends. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) attributed these gains to a coordinated policy stance, IMF program support, and improved credit ratings. Despite easing inflation and a 1000 basis point cut in policy rate from June 2024 to February 2025, real GDP growth remained modest due to weak Kharif crop production and industrial contraction, though services showed relative strength. A rise in exports and remittances also helped bolster foreign reserves. However, the SBP warned of long-term challenges, emphasizing that weak productivity growth has undermined competitiveness and contributed to economic volatility, calling for structural reforms to enhance productivity and economic resilience.
  • In the first nine months of FY25, Pakistan’s salaried class paid a record Rs391 billion in income tax— nearly 10% of the country’s total income tax collection—highlighting a starkly disproportionate burden compared to other sectors like traders and retailers, who contributed far less. This represents a 56% increase from last year and already exceeds the government’s full-year target by Rs140 billion. Despite paying taxes on gross income without deductions and bearing the brunt of policy changes like reduced tax slabs and surcharges, their plight was not addressed in recent IMF negotiations. In contrast, retailers and wholesalers, many unregistered, paid a fraction of this amount, undermining the fairness of the tax system. With the IMF team set to review Pakistan’s budget in May, officials suggest high salaried-class collections might deter tax relief. Meanwhile, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) faces revenue shortfalls, attributing underperformance to slower economic growth and inflation, despite Rs1.3 trillion in new taxes introduced in the current budget.
Morning News: Trade gap with ME widens - By WE Research

Apr 15 2025



  • Pakistan’s trade deficit with the Middle East widened by 9.75% to $9.35 billion in the first eight months of FY25, mainly due to a surge in petroleum imports, particularly a 20.29% increase in crude oil volumes. While exports to the region rose modestly—by 3.56% to $2.095 billion—imports jumped 8.56% to $11.44 billion during the same period. Despite a narrowing of the trade gap in FY24 due to lower petroleum consumption, the deficit has grown again, raising concerns. Pakistan recently signed a free trade agreement with GCC states to address the imbalance, with notable export growth to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Exports to Saudi Arabia rose 10.59% and to the UAE by 5.84% during July-February, while imports from both also fluctuated. However, exports to Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar declined significantly, while imports from these countries mostly increased, further contributing to the widening trade deficit.
  • In the upcoming 2025–26 federal budget, the Pakistani government is expected to raise taxes on a wide range of food and beverage items to increase tax revenue. Proposed measures include doubling the excise duty on soft drinks, sweetened beverages, and juices from 20% to 40%, while introducing a new 20% tax on industrial dairy products. Meat products, bakery goods, and confectionery items— such as chocolate, pastries, and cereals—are also likely to face a 50% tax increase, along with frozen desserts and products made from animal or vegetable fats. These tax hikes are planned to be implemented gradually over three years. Simultaneously, the defence budget is set to increase by Rs159 billion to Rs2,281 billion for FY26, marking a 7.49% rise from the previous year and a Rs263.2 billion increase since FY24, highlighting a continued focus on national security amid broader fiscal reforms.
  • Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, chaired a high-level meeting on priority sector lending aimed at aligning Pakistan’s financial sector with the government's export-led growth agenda. Attended by key officials from the State Bank, the Pakistan Banks Association, and leading banks, the session emphasized the banking sector's vital role in facilitating foreign direct investment and supporting export-oriented industries. The minister highlighted the successful Pakistan Minerals Summit and Maersk Line’s $2 billion investment in maritime infrastructure as indicators of investor confidence. He stressed the need for sustainable, investment-led economic growth, avoiding past boom-bust cycles. Notably, this year’s budget process was initiated early, incorporating stakeholder feedback from commerce chambers. Zafar Masud of the PBA presented updates on banking support for agriculture, SMEs, and digital sectors, including initiatives like electronic warehouse receipt finance and SME performance indices. The minister concluded with a call for coordinated efforts to develop fintech-driven credit solutions for smallholder farmers and to ensure long-term economic transformation rooted in stability, inclusivity, and resilience.
Morning News: IMF team due next week to discuss taxation proposals for next budget - By WE Research

Apr 11 2025



  • A technical team from the IMF is scheduled to visit Pakistan starting April 14, 2025, to engage in discussions with senior officials of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) regarding taxation proposals for the FY2025-26 budget. The talks will focus on expanding the tax base by bringing retailers and other untaxed sectors under the tax net, while the government is also considering reducing tax rates for the salaried class. Both parties are expected to explore the inclusion of high-income pensioners in the tax framework. Meanwhile, the IMF’s governance and anti-corruption diagnostic team will be concluding its visit. Additionally, a high-level Pakistani delegation, headed by Finance Minister Mohammad Aurangzeb, will attend the annual spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, D.C., from April 21 to 26, 2025.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has halted a proposal to waive the 18% sales tax on local supplies of commodities, raw materials, and machinery to registered exporters under the Export Facilitation Scheme (EFS), due to concerns over potential objections from the IMF. The proposal, originally put forth by a committee led by Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal, aimed to restore tax exemptions and reintroduce insurance guarantees to address anomalies that favor imports over local procurement—an issue impacting domestic industries like ginning factories. While some officials suggested revisiting the matter with the IMF, the Prime Minister rejected the idea, instead calling for a balanced solution that does not disadvantage local producers. The government is considering imposing the same 18% tax on imports to level the playing field. The PM emphasized boosting exports remains a top priority and urged the committee to incorporate industry feedback and develop consensus-based recommendations. The EFS, launched in 2021, has undergone stricter controls in recent months to curb misuse, including reduced utilization periods and enhanced monitoring.
  • Pakistan’s total liquid foreign exchange reserves increased by $173 million during the week ending April 4, 2025, reaching $15.75 billion, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). This rise includes a $23 million gain in SBP-held reserves, which stood at $10.699 billion, up from $10.676 billion the previous week. Additionally, net reserves held by commercial banks saw a notable increase of $150 million, reaching $5.053 billion compared to $4.903 billion the week before.
Fauji Cement Company Limited (FCCL): Poised for Continued Growth - Market Weight - By WE Research

Mar 18 2025



  • Since Jan’2024, the Pakistan cement sector has witnessed a swift recovery on the back of anticipated interest cut, where the industry stock performance increased by 46%. Among the local peers, FCCL has been the key driver on this rally, delivering an 92% return, with its share price surging from PKR 18.95/sh on January 1, 2024, to PKR 36.4/sh on January 1, 2025. However, despite this strong market performance, cement dispatches in CY24 remained stagnant/low, where local demand reached at 38.2 Mn tons, depicting a decline of 4.5% YoY. However, we expect FY25 to be a strong year for the industry, driven by lower interest rates and enhanced purchasing power across both consumer and industrial sectors, where we anticipated local dispatches to clock in at 38Mn tons 4% YoY increase from FY25.
  • We have a Market Weight stance on FCCL, with a DCF-based target price of PKR 64.40 per share for DEC’25 offering 40% upside potential. FCCL is currently valued at ~US$39.17EV/ton compared to 5-year average of ~US$32.65EV/ton. On EV/EBIDTA basis, stock is trading at ~11.07x as compared to 5-year average of ~6x.
  • Our liking for the stocks emanate from 1) Healthy gross margins driven by cost efficiency initiatives, 2) Recent capacity expansion to enhance market footprint, 3) Strong cash flow led to higher payouts & 4) Reducing interest rate to increase profitability.
Morning News: Economy seen growing at 3.4pc in FY25 – By WE Research

Jan 13 2025



  • Pakistan's economy is showing signs of recovery from the 2022-23 downturn, with a projected 3.4% GDP growth in FY25, according to the United Nations' latest economic survey. The IMF’s 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, worth $7 billion, aims to address structural challenges, promote economic stability, and foster sustainable growth by focusing on reforms, policy credibility, competitiveness, state-owned enterprises, and climate resilience. Despite these efforts, risks such as geopolitical tensions, debt challenges, social unrest, and climate-related shocks, including extreme weather events, could hinder growth. The South Asian region is expected to see moderate GDP expansion, with inflation decreasing across most countries, including Pakistan, which has reduced key policy rates to support recovery. However, the region remains vulnerable to climate impacts, which have led to increased food prices and income inequality, particularly affecting rural households.
  • Pakistan saw a significant increase in workers' remittances, with $3.1 billion inflows in December 2024, reflecting a 29.3% year-on-year growth and a 5.6% month-on-month rise. Cumulatively, remittances reached $17.8 billion in the first half of FY25, up 32.8% from the previous year. Major sources included Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the UK, and the US. Analysts attribute the surge to efforts that narrowed the gap between black market and interbank exchange rates, a stable rupee, and the Pakistan Stock Exchange's strong performance. With ongoing government measures to regulate the remittance sector, including tighter controls on smuggling and improved documentation, remittance inflows are expected to exceed $35 billion by the end of FY25, a 35% increase from FY24. While improvements in dollar-rupee parity have bolstered this trend, experts caution against policies favoring export lobbies, arguing for broader currency stabilization measures.
  • Inflows through Pakistan's Roshan Digital Account (RDA) reached $203 million in December 2024, marking a 9% increase from November's $186 million, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). Of the December inflows, $13 million was repatriated, and $113 million was used locally, with a net repatriable liability of $76 million. The total number of RDA accounts grew to 778,713, up by 10,319 from the previous month. Cumulatively, RDA inflows reached $9.342 billion, with $1.7 billion repatriated and $5.911 billion utilized locally. The net outstanding liability was $1.73 billion as of Decemberend, with a significant portion in Naya Pakistan Certificates. Additionally, Roshan Equity Investments saw a 16% increase to $59 million. Launched in 2020, the RDA has become a crucial source of foreign exchange for Pakistan, offering competitive returns on dollar investments.