AirLink Communication Ltd ((AIRLINK): Innovation unplugged - By Foundation Research
May 27 2025
Foundation Securities
We initiate coverage on AirLink Communication Ltd. with an ‘Outperform’ rating and
a Dec’25 TP of PKR 273.3/sh, implying a 67.8% upside. AIRLINK has established a strong
position in the mobile manufacturing market through the local assembly of prominent
brands including Xiaomi, Tecno, and Itel. The company has ambitious plans to expand
its product portfolio further by venturing into the manufacturing of laptops, TV’s and
EV’s.
Our positive outlook on AIRLINK is supported by (1) increasing broadband and
smartphone penetration in Pakistan, (2) strategic expansion aided by a 10-year tax
holiday, (3) rising market share of low budget smartphones, (4) diversification into
laptops and TVs, (5) potential in Xiaomi smartphone exports, and (6) expanding
horizons with EV’s. Despite growing competition, the company’s forward looking
initiatives position it strongly to capitalize on untapped market opportunities.
Increasing broadband and smartphone penetration: Pakistan’s smartphone
penetration (31%) is significantly lower than in neighboring India (47%) and other
developing countries (avg: 54%) with a GDP per capita close to Pakistan’s. Similarly,
smartphone penetration in South-East Asia stood at 79% in 2024, highlighting the gap
and growth opportunity in Pakistan. Improved internet access and evolving popularity
of social apps coupled with digitalization are likely to keep demand for smartphones
robust in the near term.
AirLink Communication Ltd ((AIRLINK): Innovation unplugged - By Foundation Research
May 27 2025
Foundation Securities
We initiate coverage on AirLink Communication Ltd. with an ‘Outperform’ rating and
a Dec’25 TP of PKR 273.3/sh, implying a 67.8% upside. AIRLINK has established a strong
position in the mobile manufacturing market through the local assembly of prominent
brands including Xiaomi, Tecno, and Itel. The company has ambitious plans to expand
its product portfolio further by venturing into the manufacturing of laptops, TV’s and
EV’s.
Our positive outlook on AIRLINK is supported by (1) increasing broadband and
smartphone penetration in Pakistan, (2) strategic expansion aided by a 10-year tax
holiday, (3) rising market share of low budget smartphones, (4) diversification into
laptops and TVs, (5) potential in Xiaomi smartphone exports, and (6) expanding
horizons with EV’s. Despite growing competition, the company’s forward looking
initiatives position it strongly to capitalize on untapped market opportunities.
Increasing broadband and smartphone penetration: Pakistan’s smartphone
penetration (31%) is significantly lower than in neighboring India (47%) and other
developing countries (avg: 54%) with a GDP per capita close to Pakistan’s. Similarly,
smartphone penetration in South-East Asia stood at 79% in 2024, highlighting the gap
and growth opportunity in Pakistan. Improved internet access and evolving popularity
of social apps coupled with digitalization are likely to keep demand for smartphones
robust in the near term.
Air Link Communication Limited (AIRLINK): AIRLINK new land acquisition to bring tax savings – Earnings may revise up - By Topline Research
Jan 21 2025
Topline Securities
In a notice to exchange, Airlink Communication (AIRLINK) informed that it intends to acquire
an industrial plot measuring 3 acres, alongside an acquisition of a 5 acres industrial plot by its
wholly-owned subsidiary, Select Technologies (Pvt.) Limited.
The plot is located in Sundar Green Special Economic Zone, Lahore, and the combined value
of these purchases is Rs572mn.
The benefits of the plot acquisition would include a 10-year tax holiday along with one time
GST exemption on the import of machinery, as per management.
Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research
Jul 7 2025
AKD Securities
The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY
compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP:
PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research
Jul 7 2025
JS Global Capital
We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd
(INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM,
reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative
budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units,
supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 setting a record - By JS Research
Jul 7 2025
JS Global Capital
Bullish momentum continued for the KSE-100 index, which gained 1,262 points to close at
131,949. Trading volumes stood at 733mn shares, compared to 900mn shares previously.
The index is likely to retest Friday’s high of 132,130; a break above this level could target
133,412, with potential to rise further toward 135,232. On the downside, support is seen in
the 130,710-131,600 range. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive
outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. Immediate
support and resistance are placed at 131,067 and 132,480, respectively.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By HMFS Research
Jul 7 2025
HMFS Research
With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the
United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations. While
both sides have reached an understanding, a formal announcement is
expected only after the US concludes similar ongoing negotiations with other
trade partners. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at
risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline. The
agreement, when signed, could lead to increased Pakistani imports of US
goods — notably crude oil — and potential American investment in
Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors.
The U.S. dollar hovered near its lowest since 2021 against the euro and the
weakest since 2015 versus the Swiss franc on Monday, with traders alert for
any trade-related headlines in the countdown to President Donald Trump’s
tariff deadline. The dollar index , which measures the currency against those
three rivals and three more major counterparts, was flat at 96.967, hovering
above Tuesday’s nearly 3-1/2-year trough of 96.373.
US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he had signed 12 trade letters
to be sent out next week ahead of an impending deadline for his tariffs to
take effect. “I signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday, probably
12,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, adding that the countries to
which the letters would be sent will be announced on the same day. His
comments come days before steeper duties — which the president said on
Thursday would range between 10 and 70 per cent — are set to take effect
on dozens of economies, from Taiwan to the European Union.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By Vector Research
Jul 7 2025
Vector Securities
With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have
concluded a critical round of trade negotiations, reaching an understanding on a deal that
could shape the future of the country’s key export sectors. The delegation arrived in
Washington on Monday with the aim of finalising a long-term reciprocal tariff agreement
that would prevent the re-imposition of a 29 per cent tariff on Pakistani exports — primarily
textiles and agricultural products. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was
at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline.
Pakistan and Azerbaijan in a major development Friday signed a partnership agreement. The
agreement for investment of a total of $2 billion by Azerbaijan in the economic sector of
Pakistan.
Foreign exchange companies contributed around $450 million to remittance inflows during
June, taking their total contribution to approximately $5 billion in FY25, according to the
Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP). “We sold about $450m to banks in
June, highlighting our growing role in supporting the country’s exchange rate stability,” said
Zafar Paracha, Secretary General of ECAP.
Morning News: Azerbaijan to invest $2bn in economic sector WE Research
Jul 7 2025
Pakistan and Azerbaijan have signed a significant $2 billion investment agreement, marking a new milestone in bilateral economic relations. The deal, signed in the presence of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif,
Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, and Azerbaijani Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov, reflects growing
investor confidence in Pakistan. It follows a cordial meeting between Prime Minister Sharif and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Khankandi, with a more detailed agreement to be finalized during the
Azerbaijani President’s upcoming visit to Pakistan. Both countries committed to further enhancing cooperation across various sectors, including trade, investment, and climate issues, as emphasized by
Prime Minister Sharif during his remarks in Shusha.
With less than a week before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have reached a preliminary understanding on a trade agreement aimed at securing Pakistan’s key export sectors, particularly textiles and agriculture, from the re-imposition of a 29% tariff. Led by Commerce Secretary Jawad Paal, the Pakistani delegation concluded four days of negotiations in Washington, with a formal announcement expected after the US finalizes talks with other trade partners. The proposed deal includes reciprocal tariff arrangements, increased Pakistani imports of US goods such as crude oil, and potential
American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors—including projects like Reko Diq. Officials remain optimistic that the agreement will preserve Pakistan’s access to the US market and revitalize economic ties strained since the Trump-era tariffs.
Oil prices dropped over 1% after OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing a larger-than-expected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August, raising fears of oversupply. Brent crude
fell to $67.50 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped to $65.68. The hike, up from prior monthly increases of 411,000bpd, reflects a more aggressive push for market share, with Saudi Arabia
driving much of the actual output gains. OPEC+ cited strong global demand and low inventories as justification. Goldman Sachs expects a final 550,000bpd increase to be announced for September at the group’s August 3 meeting. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia raised prices for its flagship Arab Light crude in a
show of confidence in demand. In a related development, U.S. President Trump indicated higher tariffs will be announced by July 9, with implementation set for August 1.
Market Wrap: Banking on Bulls: KSE-100 Hits a New Milestone - By HMFS Research
Jul 4 2025
HMFS Research
The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) sustained its upward trajectory in today’s session,
with the benchmark KSE-100 Index surging to a fresh intra-day high of 132,130 before
closing at 131,949, up by a robust 1,262 points (+0.97%). The rally was supported by
sustained investor interest—particularly in the banking sector—as participants
continued to rotate into fundamentally sound, undervalued plays amid a supportive
macroeconomic backdrop. Trading activity remained strong, with the All-Share Index
posting a healthy turnover of 731mn shares, while KSE-100 volumes came in at
199mn shares, indicating broad-based participation. Top volume leaders included,
WTL (58mn), BML (36mn), and TREET (30mn). The banking sector emerged as the
primary driver of index gains, supported by attractive dividend yields, and compelling
P/B valuations. The recent softening in Pakistan’s sovereign credit default swap (CDS)
spreads has further improved investor sentiment by lowering perceived external risk,
catalyzing flows into equities. While the momentum remains firmly intact, the
market’s proximity to psychological resistance levels suggests room for near-term
consolidation, especially as investors may opt to lock in recent gains. However, the
medium-term narrative remains constructive, underpinned by prospects of continued
IMF engagement, fiscal reforms, and easing external account pressures. We continue
to advise investors to remain selective and focus on sectors with resilient
fundamentals and earnings visibility. In the current phase of the cycle, valuation
discipline, liquidity considerations, and macro-driven event positioning will remain
critical in navigating market dynamics.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - JS Research
Jul 4 2025
JS Global Capital
The KSE-100 Index closed the
session on a strong note, gaining
1,262 points to settle at 131,949.
Broad-based buying was seen across
key sectors, with Autos, banks, and
Power leading the charge. Investor
sentiment remained upbeat,
supported by improved macros and
anticipation of further monetary
easing. Looking forward, we have a
favorable view on the market in the
near term, backed by favorable
liquidity conditions, positive policy
cues, and foreign interest returning
to key sectors. However,
intermittent consolidation cannot
be ruled out as the index
approaches resistance levels.
Fertilizers: Sales to recover in June-2025; albeit inventory level remains high - By JS Research
Jul 4 2025
JS Global Capital
As per provisional figures, Urea off-take during Jun-2025 is expected to clock in at 580k tons, arriving at a growth of 20%
YoY/ 39% MoM. Cumulatively, Urea off-take is likely to post a negative growth of 23% YoY during 1HCY25. On the other
hand, DAP off-take is likely to fall 15% YoY during the month.
Company-wise, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to post Urea off-take of 269k tons in Jun-2025, up 4% YoY. This
includes 51k tons of granular Urea. Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is likely to post growth 32% YoY, arriving at 205k tons. In terms
of market share, EFERT Urea share improved by 3ppts YoY to 35%, while FFC’s share dipped 8ppts YoY during the month.
Urea inventory is expected to remain elevated at around 1.3mn tons by the end of 1HCY25. Assuming capacity utilization
remains stable at current levels, allowance of export can be a key trigger in our view, helping to mitigate inventory buildup
despite the anticipated increase in local sales during 2HCY25.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue - By JS Research
Jul 4 2025
JS Global Capital
The KSE-100 Index witnessed a volatile session to close at 130,687, up 343 points DoD.
Volumes stood at 900mn shares compared to 1,026mn shares traded in the last session.
The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 131,325 with a break above targeting
132,134, which can extend to 133,412. However, any downside will find support in the
range of 129,050-129,870 levels. The RSI and the MACD are heading up, supporting a
positive outlook. We advise investors to 'Buy on dips', keeping stoploss below 128,616.
The support and resistance levels are placed at 129,867 and 131,415, respectively.
Oil Marketing Companies: Sales upswing on better economics - By Foundation Research
Jul 2 2025
Foundation Securities
POL sales surged 7% YoY to settle at 16.3mn tons during FY25 given increase of 8%
YoY in white oil sales driven by (1) pickup in economic activity amid sharply declining
inflation and receding interest rates, (2) lower petroleum prices, and (3) favourable
base effect. During FY25, MS/HSD sales enhanced 6/10% YoY whereas FO sales
plummeted 23% YoY. Company-wise analysis depicts that WAFI/HASCOL volumes
expanded 8/39% YoY whereas PSO/APL volumes shrank 5/6% YoY in FY25. Whereas,
sales jumped 8% YoY during Jun’25.
White oil: Domestic petroleum sales (ex-non Energy) witnessed a 7% YoY
improvement during FY25 while white oil sales climbed by 8% YoY given strong
demand amid pickup in economic activities and lower petroleum prices (avg. of
Rs255.8/258.1/liter, down 9/9% YoY, respectively in FY25). Product-wise analysis
reveals that MS/HSD sales clocked-in at 7.6/6.9mn tons, up 6/10% YoY in FY25.
In the black oil segment, FO sales slumped 23% YoY to 806K tons in FY25 given lower
demand from power producers given higher proportion of hydel, nuclear, RLNG, gas
and coal power generation.
Mari Energies Limited (MARI): Analyst Briefing Key Takeaways - By Foundation Research
Jul 1 2025
Foundation Securities
Mari Energies Limited (MARI) held its Conference call yesterday to discuss the company’s financial
performance in 9MFY25 and future plans. Following are the key takeaways of the call:
Mari Energies Limited’s (MARI) profitability clocked-in at PKR 15.9Bn (EPS PKR 13.25, up 13% YoY) in 3QFY25
as compared to profit of PKR 14.1Bn (EPS PKR 11.76) in 3QFY24. In 9MFY25, profits contracted 10% YoY to
PKR 46.3Bn (EPS PKR 38.56) vs. PKR 51.6Bn (EPS PKR 43.00) in the SPLY. This decline in profitability was on
the back of 1) incremental royalty of 15%, 2) forced curtailment of indigenous production due to back
pressure in the system, and 3) FX stability.
The management reiterated the company’s dominance in the exploration and production sector with an area
under exploration and production of 97,166 square km while boasting 46 exploration blocks and 14 D&P
licenses.
Economy: Large Scale Manufacturing Industrial activity posts modest growth - By Foundation Research
Jun 18 2025
Foundation Securities
LSM output witnessed an increase of 2.3% YoY in Apr’25 due to low base effect.
During 10MFY25, output contracted 1.5% YoY given lagged second round effects of
tight monetary stance and weak domestic demand. Prominent sectors that fueled the
monthly progress were Automobiles (↑60.2%), Other transport Equipment (↑41.6%),
Paper & Board (↑12.1%), Tobacco (↑9.1%), Textile (↑7.9%), Pharmaceuticals
(↑7.5%), Coke & Petroleum Products (↑5.5%), Computer, electronics & Op prods
(↑5.1%), Fertilizers (↑5.1%), Beverages (↑4.3%), Food (↑3.5%), Wood Products
(↑3.0%), Electrical Equipment (↑2.6%), Rubber Products (↑2.3%), Non Metallic
Mineral Products (↑1.9%) and Leather Products(↑1.8%). On the flipside, negative
contributors were Machinery and Equipment (↓50.7%), Other Manufacturing
(Football) (↓41.5%), Furniture (↓40.3%), Chemicals Products (↓10.8%), Wearing
Apparel (↓8.6%), Iron & Steel Products (↓1.8%), and Fabricated Metal (↓0.1%).
Textile sector underwent a surge of 7.9% YoY as spinning/weaving reported
enhancement of 8.7/0.4% YoY. Food production rose 3.5% YoY as sugar, bakery, &
chocolate production shot up by 184% YoY during the month. Pharma output grew
7.5% YoY on the back of 6.7/10.3% YoY increase in tablets/syrups production.
Pakistan Fertilizer: Recovery sets in - By Foundation Research
Jun 16 2025
Foundation Securities
The dry spell in the Fertilizer sector is beginning to end with urea dispatches up 5/67%
YoY/MoM respectively to 418KT in May’25. However, fertilizer offtake continued with its
sluggish trend in 5MCY25 fueled by Govt’s decision to abolish support prices that has
severely impacted farmer income. During 5MCY25, Urea/DAP sales recorded a decline of
31/19% YoY to only 1,768/340KT. Company wise analysis reveals that FFC urea offtake
declined/inclined 28/92% YoY/MoM to 207KT in May’25, whereas EFERT/FATIMA
recorded a jump of 86%/3.7x YoY and 76/84% MoM to 142/54KT, respectively. AGL urea
offtake dwindled 26/25% YoY/MoM to reach 15KT in May’25. Industry DAP offtake
jumped 2.4x YoY (flat MoM) in May’25 to 95KT. FFC/EFERT DAP offtake inclined 2.2/7.6x
YoY and surged/dropped 27/57% MoM to 68/14KT, respectively, in May’25.
Fertilizer sales picked up pace in May’25: Pakistan domestic Urea offtake increased
by 5/67% YoY/MoM in May’25, reaching 418KT. DAP offtake increased 2.4x YoY to 95KT,
whereas no change was observed on a MoM basis. NP offtake jumped 60/6% YoY/MoM
in May’25 to 76KT, while CAN offtake increased 147/86% YoY/MoM to 83KT. In May’25,
industry urea inventory levels increased drastically to 1,316KT, an eight year high, due to
sluggish demand amid weak crop pricing and previously high stock levels. Similarly, DAP
inventory has reached 238KT. Company-wise urea inventory was recorded at
359/570/321/66KT for FFC/EFERT/FATIMA/AGL, respectively, in May’25. DAP inventory
of FFC/EFERT reached 139/19KT.
Oil Marketing Companies: Expansion continues steadily - By Foundation Research
Jun 3 2025
Foundation Securities
POL sales surged 10% YoY (↑5% MoM) to 1.5mn tons during the month of May’25
driven by pickup in economic activity amid reduced pilferage of Iranian fuel. Productwise breakdown reveals that MS/HSD sales enhanced 15/5% YoY during May’25
whereas FO sales grew 16% YoY. Company-wise analysis depicts that WAFI/HASCOL
volumes expanded 23/31% YoY whereas PSO/APL volumes shrank 3/2% YoY during
the month. Total sales during 11MFY25 settled at 14.8mn tons, up 7% YoY.
White oil: Domestic petroleum sales (ex-non Energy) improved 10% YoY in May’25
in line with white oil sales that increased by the same magnitude. Sequentially,
volumes went up 7%. Product-wise analysis reveals that MS/HSD sales clocked-in at
700/672K tons, up 15/5% YoY (↑6/8% MoM) while prices of MS/HSD declined
marginally to PKR 254/257/ltr (down PKR 2/3/ltr). This takes 11MFY25 sales of
MS/HSD to 6.9/6.3mn tons, reflecting growth of 7/10% YoY respectively.
In the black oil segment, FO sales rose 16% YoY to 80K tons in May’25. During
11MFY25, FO sales fell 28% YoY amid lower demand from power producers given
higher proportion of hydel, nuclear, RLNG, gas and coal power generation.
AirLink Communication Ltd ((AIRLINK): Innovation unplugged - By Foundation Research
May 27 2025
Foundation Securities
We initiate coverage on AirLink Communication Ltd. with an ‘Outperform’ rating and
a Dec’25 TP of PKR 273.3/sh, implying a 67.8% upside. AIRLINK has established a strong
position in the mobile manufacturing market through the local assembly of prominent
brands including Xiaomi, Tecno, and Itel. The company has ambitious plans to expand
its product portfolio further by venturing into the manufacturing of laptops, TV’s and
EV’s.
Our positive outlook on AIRLINK is supported by (1) increasing broadband and
smartphone penetration in Pakistan, (2) strategic expansion aided by a 10-year tax
holiday, (3) rising market share of low budget smartphones, (4) diversification into
laptops and TVs, (5) potential in Xiaomi smartphone exports, and (6) expanding
horizons with EV’s. Despite growing competition, the company’s forward looking
initiatives position it strongly to capitalize on untapped market opportunities.
Increasing broadband and smartphone penetration: Pakistan’s smartphone
penetration (31%) is significantly lower than in neighboring India (47%) and other
developing countries (avg: 54%) with a GDP per capita close to Pakistan’s. Similarly,
smartphone penetration in South-East Asia stood at 79% in 2024, highlighting the gap
and growth opportunity in Pakistan. Improved internet access and evolving popularity
of social apps coupled with digitalization are likely to keep demand for smartphones
robust in the near term.
Pakistan Fertilizer: Recovery still far away - By Foundation Research
May 15 2025
Foundation Securities
The dry spell continues for the Fertilizer sector with urea dispatches recorded at only
1,350KT (↓37% YoY) in 4MCY25. Fertilizer offtake continued with its sluggish trend
fueled by Govt’s decision to abolish support prices that has severely impacted farmer
income. In Apr’25, Urea sales recorded a decline of 24/18% YoY/MoM to only 251KT, a
five-year low. Company wise analysis reveals that FFC urea offtake declined 52/42%
MoM/YoY to 108KT in Apr’25, whereas EFERT/FATIMA recorded an incline of 7/56% YoY
and 38/14% MoM to 81/42KT, respectively. AGL urea offtake dwindled 17% MoM but
picked up 11.2x YoY to reach 20KT in Apr’25. Industry DAP offtake jumped 3/96%
YoY/MoM in Apr’25 to 95KT. FFC/EFERT DAP offtake declined/inclined 34%/3.1x YoY and
surged 2.0/3.8x MoM to 54/31KT, respectively.
Fertilizer sales remained lethargic in Apr’25: Pakistan domestic Urea offtake declined
by 24/18% YoY/MoM in Apr’25, reaching 251KT. DAP offtake increased 3/96% YoY/MoM
to 95KT. NP offtake remained jumped 46/31% YoY/MoM in Apr’25 to 71KT, while CAN
offtake increased 28/15% YoY/MoM to 45KT. In Apr’25, industry urea inventory levels
increased drastically to 1,104KT, a five year high, due to sluggish demand amid weak crop
pricing. Similarly, DAP inventory has reached 204KT. Company-wise urea inventory was
recorded at 292/487/279/46KT for FFC/EFERT/FATIMA/AGL, respectively, in Apr’25. DAP
inventory of FFC/EFERT reached 129/32KT.
EFERT offtake picked up: EFERT/FATIMA urea offtake inclined 7/56% YoY,
respectively, to reach 81/42KT, in Apr’25. We attribute this incline to the seasonality
factor and company incentives to clear inventory. AGL urea offtake showed a massive
jump of 11.2x YoY, due to low-base effect. Where the whole industry has undergone a
jump in offtake, FFC experienced a decline in Urea dispatches to the tune of 52/42%
YoY/MoM to reach 108KT
Oil Marketing Companies: Fuel demand picks up further - By Foundation Research
May 5 2025
Foundation Securities
POL sales surged 32% YoY (↑20% MoM) to 1.5mn tons during the month of Apr’25
driven by the low base effect and pickup in economic activities amid reduced pilferage
of Iranian fuel. Product-wise breakdown reveals that MS/HSD sales enhanced 24/33%
YoY during Apr’25 whereas FO sales grew 182% YoY. Company-wise analysis depicts
that PSO/APL/WAFI/HASCOL volumes expanded 12/28/23/76% YoY during the
month. Total sales during 10MFY25 settled at 13.2mn tons, up 6% YoY.
White oil: Domestic petroleum sales (ex-non Energy) improved 32% YoY in Apr’25
while white oil sales increased 28% YoY. Sequentially, volumes went up 20%. Productwise analysis reveals that MS/HSD sales clocked-in at 660/622K tons, up 24/33% YoY
(↑14/28% MoM) while prices of MS/HSD remained stable MoM. This takes 10MFY25
sales of MS/HSD to 6.2/5.6mn tons, reflecting growth of 6/11% YoY respectively.
In the black oil segment, FO sales shot up 182% YoY to 84K tons during Apr’25.
During 10MFY25, FO sales fell 31% YoY amid lower demand from power producers
given higher proportion of hydel, nuclear, RLNG, gas and coal power generation.
Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC): 3QFY25 EPS recorded at PKR 11.0/sh, DPS PKR 3.0/sh - By Foundation Research
Apr 30 2025
Foundation Securities
Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC PA) earnings in 3QFY25 remained stable at PKR 47.1Bn (EPS PKR
11.0/sh) vs. PKR 47.8Bn (EPS PKR 11.1/sh) during 3QFY24. While in 9MFY25, the profitability clocked-in at
PKR 129.6Bn (EPS PKR 30.1/sh), down 24% YoY, against PKR 171.1Bn (EPS PKR 39.8/sh) in the SPLY. The
earnings are in-line with our expectation.
The result was accompanied by a cash payout of PKR 3.0/sh taking 9M payout to PKR 10.1/sh.
The bottom-line in 3QFY25 remained stable despite a 17% YoY decline in gross profit. We attribute this to (1)
stable PKR-USD parity, (2) steady other income (↑5% YoY), and (3) effective tax rate of only 30% against 41%
in the SPLY which we believe is due to depletion.
Pakistan Oil and Gas: Lower production and softer oil prices to hamper sector profitability in 3Q - By Foundation Research
Apr 24 2025
Foundation Securities
We expect E&P sector profitability to decline 11% YoY during 3QFY25. This is
attributable to: 1) avg. oil prices tumbling 5% YoY in 3Q, 2) oil/gas avg. production
plummeting 12/5% YoY, and 3) stable PKR/USD parity. On a QoQ basis, we expect
sector profitability to inch up 4% on the back of improvement in production stats
(oil/gas avg. production surge by 1/7% QoQ) and receding exploration costs.
Oil and gas industry production receded in 3QFY25 due to forced curtailment:
Oil/gas production declined 12/5% YoY in 3Q, this trend has been ongoing for the last 4
quarters mainly due to forced curtailment of local production to facilitate imported
RLNG flows. It is pertinent to highlight that pressure of gas supply led to constraints in
system capacity forcing domestic oil & gas production to fall. Considering the same and
following some resentment from domestic players, the government has delayed some
planned shipments.
Status of drilling activity: In 9MFY25, a total of 15/23 of exploratory/development
wells were spud as against planned 27/40 in the beginning of FY25. Last year, 11/30
exploratory/development wells were spud against 21/35 planned. Improved
exploration activity in the E&P’s space symbolizes easing of cash flows along with
multiple block auctions.
