Economy: MPS Preview: A Cautious Pause as Uncertainties Mount - By Pearl Research

Jun 16 2025



  • The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to convene on 16 th June, 2025, wherein we expect the Committee to maintain the key policy rate unchanged at 11%.
  • Our Monetary Policy Announcement History the view that the MPC will opt to hold the policy rate steady at 11% in its forthcoming meeting is predicated on a confluence of evolving global backdrop which may exert external pressure as well as erosion of offsetting base year effects.
  • Persistent global economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks: Notably, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index escalated by 249% YoY in April 2025 amid heightened trade tensions due to uncertainty over tariff measures which can disrupt global supply chains, raise production costs, and delay investment flows, resulting in reemergence of price pressures in Pakistan. Compounding these challenges, the Middle East has witnessed a dangerous escalation in hostilities following Israel’s unprecedented strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Iran’s retaliatory launch, coupled with aggressive rhetoric from both sides has severely heightened regional risk, resulting in a surge in global crude prices. Given the dependence on imported oil, Pakistan external account remains highly vulnerable to sustained oil price volatility as Petroleum imports account for nearly 30% of total imports. Sustained escalation in geopolitical volatility can, therefore, result in depreciation of the PKR and escalation in the import bill which can inflate the CPI.

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Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
  • All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
  • For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 setting a record - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Bullish momentum continued for the KSE-100 index, which gained 1,262 points to close at 131,949. Trading volumes stood at 733mn shares, compared to 900mn shares previously. The index is likely to retest Friday’s high of 132,130; a break above this level could target 133,412, with potential to rise further toward 135,232. On the downside, support is seen in the 130,710-131,600 range. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. Immediate support and resistance are placed at 131,067 and 132,480, respectively.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations. While both sides have reached an understanding, a formal announcement is expected only after the US concludes similar ongoing negotiations with other trade partners. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline. The agreement, when signed, could lead to increased Pakistani imports of US goods — notably crude oil — and potential American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors.
  • The U.S. dollar hovered near its lowest since 2021 against the euro and the weakest since 2015 versus the Swiss franc on Monday, with traders alert for any trade-related headlines in the countdown to President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline. The dollar index , which measures the currency against those three rivals and three more major counterparts, was flat at 96.967, hovering above Tuesday’s nearly 3-1/2-year trough of 96.373.
  • US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he had signed 12 trade letters to be sent out next week ahead of an impending deadline for his tariffs to take effect. “I signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday, probably 12,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, adding that the countries to which the letters would be sent will be announced on the same day. His comments come days before steeper duties — which the president said on Thursday would range between 10 and 70 per cent — are set to take effect on dozens of economies, from Taiwan to the European Union.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By Vector Research

Jul 7 2025


Vector Securities


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations, reaching an understanding on a deal that could shape the future of the country’s key export sectors. The delegation arrived in Washington on Monday with the aim of finalising a long-term reciprocal tariff agreement that would prevent the re-imposition of a 29 per cent tariff on Pakistani exports — primarily textiles and agricultural products. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline.
  • Pakistan and Azerbaijan in a major development Friday signed a partnership agreement. The agreement for investment of a total of $2 billion by Azerbaijan in the economic sector of Pakistan.
  • Foreign exchange companies contributed around $450 million to remittance inflows during June, taking their total contribution to approximately $5 billion in FY25, according to the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP). “We sold about $450m to banks in June, highlighting our growing role in supporting the country’s exchange rate stability,” said Zafar Paracha, Secretary General of ECAP.
Morning News: Azerbaijan to invest $2bn in economic sector WE Research

Jul 7 2025



  • Pakistan and Azerbaijan have signed a significant $2 billion investment agreement, marking a new milestone in bilateral economic relations. The deal, signed in the presence of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, and Azerbaijani Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov, reflects growing investor confidence in Pakistan. It follows a cordial meeting between Prime Minister Sharif and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Khankandi, with a more detailed agreement to be finalized during the Azerbaijani President’s upcoming visit to Pakistan. Both countries committed to further enhancing cooperation across various sectors, including trade, investment, and climate issues, as emphasized by Prime Minister Sharif during his remarks in Shusha.
  • With less than a week before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have reached a preliminary understanding on a trade agreement aimed at securing Pakistan’s key export sectors, particularly textiles and agriculture, from the re-imposition of a 29% tariff. Led by Commerce Secretary Jawad Paal, the Pakistani delegation concluded four days of negotiations in Washington, with a formal announcement expected after the US finalizes talks with other trade partners. The proposed deal includes reciprocal tariff arrangements, increased Pakistani imports of US goods such as crude oil, and potential American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors—including projects like Reko Diq. Officials remain optimistic that the agreement will preserve Pakistan’s access to the US market and revitalize economic ties strained since the Trump-era tariffs.
  • Oil prices dropped over 1% after OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing a larger-than-expected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August, raising fears of oversupply. Brent crude fell to $67.50 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped to $65.68. The hike, up from prior monthly increases of 411,000bpd, reflects a more aggressive push for market share, with Saudi Arabia driving much of the actual output gains. OPEC+ cited strong global demand and low inventories as justification. Goldman Sachs expects a final 550,000bpd increase to be announced for September at the group’s August 3 meeting. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia raised prices for its flagship Arab Light crude in a show of confidence in demand. In a related development, U.S. President Trump indicated higher tariffs will be announced by July 9, with implementation set for August 1.
Market Wrap: Banking on Bulls: KSE-100 Hits a New Milestone - By HMFS Research

Jul 4 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) sustained its upward trajectory in today’s session, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index surging to a fresh intra-day high of 132,130 before closing at 131,949, up by a robust 1,262 points (+0.97%). The rally was supported by sustained investor interest—particularly in the banking sector—as participants continued to rotate into fundamentally sound, undervalued plays amid a supportive macroeconomic backdrop. Trading activity remained strong, with the All-Share Index posting a healthy turnover of 731mn shares, while KSE-100 volumes came in at 199mn shares, indicating broad-based participation. Top volume leaders included, WTL (58mn), BML (36mn), and TREET (30mn). The banking sector emerged as the primary driver of index gains, supported by attractive dividend yields, and compelling P/B valuations. The recent softening in Pakistan’s sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads has further improved investor sentiment by lowering perceived external risk, catalyzing flows into equities. While the momentum remains firmly intact, the market’s proximity to psychological resistance levels suggests room for near-term consolidation, especially as investors may opt to lock in recent gains. However, the medium-term narrative remains constructive, underpinned by prospects of continued IMF engagement, fiscal reforms, and easing external account pressures. We continue to advise investors to remain selective and focus on sectors with resilient fundamentals and earnings visibility. In the current phase of the cycle, valuation discipline, liquidity considerations, and macro-driven event positioning will remain critical in navigating market dynamics.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index closed the session on a strong note, gaining 1,262 points to settle at 131,949. Broad-based buying was seen across key sectors, with Autos, banks, and Power leading the charge. Investor sentiment remained upbeat, supported by improved macros and anticipation of further monetary easing. Looking forward, we have a favorable view on the market in the near term, backed by favorable liquidity conditions, positive policy cues, and foreign interest returning to key sectors. However, intermittent consolidation cannot be ruled out as the index approaches resistance levels.
Fertilizers: Sales to recover in June-2025; albeit inventory level remains high - By JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • As per provisional figures, Urea off-take during Jun-2025 is expected to clock in at 580k tons, arriving at a growth of 20% YoY/ 39% MoM. Cumulatively, Urea off-take is likely to post a negative growth of 23% YoY during 1HCY25. On the other hand, DAP off-take is likely to fall 15% YoY during the month.
  • Company-wise, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to post Urea off-take of 269k tons in Jun-2025, up 4% YoY. This includes 51k tons of granular Urea. Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is likely to post growth 32% YoY, arriving at 205k tons. In terms of market share, EFERT Urea share improved by 3ppts YoY to 35%, while FFC’s share dipped 8ppts YoY during the month.
  • Urea inventory is expected to remain elevated at around 1.3mn tons by the end of 1HCY25. Assuming capacity utilization remains stable at current levels, allowance of export can be a key trigger in our view, helping to mitigate inventory buildup despite the anticipated increase in local sales during 2HCY25.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue - By JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index witnessed a volatile session to close at 130,687, up 343 points DoD. Volumes stood at 900mn shares compared to 1,026mn shares traded in the last session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 131,325 with a break above targeting 132,134, which can extend to 133,412. However, any downside will find support in the range of 129,050-129,870 levels. The RSI and the MACD are heading up, supporting a positive outlook. We advise investors to 'Buy on dips', keeping stoploss below 128,616. The support and resistance levels are placed at 129,867 and 131,415, respectively.
Market Wrap: Market round up Jun 26 2025 - By Pearl Research

Jun 26 2025



  • The benchmark KSE-100 index concluded today’s trading session in the negative territory as profit-taking prevailed amid the ongoing rollover week pressures. Consequently, the benchmark KSE-100 recorded an intraday high of 123,418(+656pts) to close at a 122,046(-715pts) level. The all-share volume marginally increased to 759mn compared to 750mn shares traded (+1.2% DoD) the previous trading day. Volume leaders included PIBTL (38mn), WTL (33mn), SSGC (33mn), PASL (32mn), and KEL (25mn). Going forward, we expect the benchmark KSE-100 index to move both ways, and we suggest investors adopt the “Buy on Dip” strategy in the upcoming sessions.
Market Wrap: Market round up Jun 25 2025 - By Pearl Research

Jun 25 2025



  • The KSE-100 index witnessed bullish momentum during today’s trading session as buying continued following de-escalation in geopolitical tensions after the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel by US President Donald Trump. Consequently, the benchmark KSE-100 recorded an intraday high of 123,257(+1,010pts) and an intraday low of 112,169(-78pts) to close at a 122,762 (+515pts) level. The all-share volume decreased to 750mn compared to 805mn shares traded (-8% DoD) the previous trading day. Volume leaders included WTL (102mn), PRL (47mn), CNERGY (40mn), BML (30mn), and FDPL (18mn). Going forward, we expect the benchmark KSE-100 index to move both ways, and we suggest investors adopt the “Buy on Dip” strategy in the upcoming sessions.
Economy: Analyst Briefing Takeaways: SBP Post-MPS Analyst Briefing - By Pearl Research

Jun 17 2025


Pearl Securities


  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) held a post-MPS Analyst Briefing on 16th June 2025 wherein Executive Director, Monetary Policy and Research Cluster and the Governor SBP explained the rationale of maintaining the policy rate unchanged at 11% and responded to questions.
  • This decision takes into account the recent reacceleration in headline inflation during May— which largely aligned with projections—while acknowledging a modest easing in core inflation and a continued moderation in inflation expectations. The MPC also recognized nascent signs of economic recovery, though external sector vulnerabilities persist, notably in the form of a widening trade imbalance and subdued financial inflows. Furthermore, certain fiscal measures proposed for FY26 are anticipated to exert incremental pressure on the import bill.
  • The MPC deliberations were informed by key macroeconomic indicators. Real GDP growth for FY25 has been provisionally recorded at 2.7%, driven by a marked acceleration in the second half of the fiscal year (3.9% in 2HFY25) relative to the first half (1.4% in 1HFY25). The growth trajectory for FY26 is expected to build on this momentum, supported by easing financial conditions, enhanced business confidence, and sectoral improvements.
Economy: The MPC keeps the policy rate unchanged at 11% - By Pearl Research

Jun 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • The State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held its meeting today wherein the committee decided to maintain the policy rate unchanged at 11% due to emerging risks amid evolving global backdrop which may exert external pressure as well as erosion of offsetting base year effects in its inflation outlook.
  • At its meeting today, the MPC decided to maintain the policy rate at 11%, viewing this stance as appropriate in light of emerging external risks and to safeguard macroeconomic stability and anchor inflation expectations. The Committee observed that the uptick in headline inflation to 3.5% YoY in May 2025 aligned with earlier projections, as the favorable base effects on food prices gradually eroded. At the same time, core inflation recorded a slight moderation, and inflation expectations among households and businesses further softened.
  • Despite the more favorable inflation readings, the MPC highlighted the persistence of significant external risks that could undermine Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability. In particular, the Committee drew attention to heightened global economic uncertainty, driven by escalating trade protectionism and tariff measures, alongside volatile geopolitical conditions that continue to fuel instability. The MPC also highlighted that rising geopolitical tensions are contributing to increased volatility in international oil prices, thereby amplifying external vulnerabilities. Additionally, the potential adverse effects of proposed fiscal measures and the risk of shortfalls in planned external inflows were noted as factors that could further exacerbate inflationary pressures and undermine overall price stability.
Economy: MPS Preview: A Cautious Pause as Uncertainties Mount - By Pearl Research

Jun 16 2025



  • The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to convene on 16 th June, 2025, wherein we expect the Committee to maintain the key policy rate unchanged at 11%.
  • Our Monetary Policy Announcement History the view that the MPC will opt to hold the policy rate steady at 11% in its forthcoming meeting is predicated on a confluence of evolving global backdrop which may exert external pressure as well as erosion of offsetting base year effects.
  • Persistent global economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks: Notably, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index escalated by 249% YoY in April 2025 amid heightened trade tensions due to uncertainty over tariff measures which can disrupt global supply chains, raise production costs, and delay investment flows, resulting in reemergence of price pressures in Pakistan. Compounding these challenges, the Middle East has witnessed a dangerous escalation in hostilities following Israel’s unprecedented strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Iran’s retaliatory launch, coupled with aggressive rhetoric from both sides has severely heightened regional risk, resulting in a surge in global crude prices. Given the dependence on imported oil, Pakistan external account remains highly vulnerable to sustained oil price volatility as Petroleum imports account for nearly 30% of total imports. Sustained escalation in geopolitical volatility can, therefore, result in depreciation of the PKR and escalation in the import bill which can inflate the CPI.
Economy: MPC to cut the policy rate by 50bps in the forthcoming meeting - By Pearl Research

May 2 2025


Pearl Securities


  • The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to convene on 5 th May, 2025, wherein we expect the committee to cut the key policy rate by 50bps to 11.5%.
  • Our view of a 50bps rate cut by the MPC is predicated on continued trajectory of disinflation coupled with forward looking inflationary expectations, Pakistan’s current external position and economic activity needed to improve tax revenue collection, improved credit rating, uptick in financial inflows from bilateral and multilateral lenders as well as emerging upside risks of escalation in inflation volatility amid a heightened global economic policy uncertainty environment.
  • To note, the headline inflation rate of March 2025 was recorded at a 59 year low of 0.7% YoY in the month of March 2025 in stark contrast to 20.7% YoY during SPLY, indicating continued deepening of disinflation compared to 1.5% YoY observed in February 2025. The March 2025 CPI print further pushed real interest rates (RIR) into the deep positive territory of +1100bps. Similarly, the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ending 24th April 2025 recorded a historical deflation rate of =3.52% YoY. Additionally, while core inflation remained relatively elevated at 8.98% YoY in March 2025, it was well below the 5 year trailing average of 12.24%, indicating easing in more persistent measures of inflation. Our forecast indicates that despite attrition of offsetting high base year effects in the medium term, RIR should remain positive on a forward looking basis and we believe inflation expectations should remain anchored. To note, with the exception of the previous MPS on 10th March, 2025, interest rate moves when RIR exceeds 5% are skewed towards a 100-250bps cut, indicating that the MPC may deem it adequate to commence the ongoing monetary easing cycle
Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

May 2 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates.
Commercial Bank: Banking Sector’s Dividends Payouts to Persist Despite Earnings Attrition in 1QCY25 - By Pearl Research

Apr 16 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We preview 1QCY25 earnings result for commercial banks within our coverage. We expect earnings of the Pearl banking universe to witness erosion of 3.6% QoQ due to NIM compression coupled with tapering off of growth in non-core income.
  • Notably, we expect the lagged impact of asset repricing and declining asset yields amid aggressive monetary easing measures to serve as a headwind for interest income, which nonetheless should partly be counteracted by volumetric balance sheet growth.
  • Additionally, we anticipate the offsetting decline in cost of deposit to remain relatively muted compared to the previous quarter despite strategic shift into low-cost deposits by the sector, thereby resulting in core income witnessing a contraction of ~6% QoQ, according to our estimates
Economy: Further deepening in disinflation to a six decade low level of 0.8% in March 2025 - By Pearl Research

Mar 27 2025


Pearl Securities


  • We project the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI)-based inflation rate for March 2025 to decelerate to ↑0.8 YoY, the lowest level observed since December 1965, in sharp contrast to ↑20.68% YoY observed in the corresponding period last year, thereby depicting a ↓71ps deceleration from ↑1.52% YoY observed in February 2025. On a month-on-month basis, we project a ↑1% MoM uptick in the CPI, indicating reacceleration as compared to ↓0.86% MoM observed in February 2025 and marginally below the trailing 5-year average MoM inflation rate of ↑1.18%.
  • Notably, we anticipate food inflation to plunge to a multi-decades low to record deflation of ↓4.83% YoY in March 2025 despite a 2.26% MoM acceleration, indicating deepening of deflation as compared to ↓4.22% YoY in February 2025 and a trailing 5-year average rate of ↑18.32% YoY, in part due to elevated base year effects. Notably, we expect sizable reduction in prices of onions (↓16.17% MoM), garlic (↓7.14% MoM), pulse mash (↓4.18% MoM) and pulse gram (↓4.19% MoM) to contribute to deflation in the food index. In contrast, food items that we expect to register escalation in prices include bananas (↑31.18% MoM), tomatoes (↑25.25% MoM), eggs (↑10.25% MoM) and chicken (↑10.16% MoM).
  • Similarly, we project deflation in the housing index at ↓1.8% YoY in March 2025 as compared to ↑0.57% YoY recorded in February 2025, ↑36.6% YoY in SPLY and a trailing 5-year average YoY rate of ↑14.15% owing to reduction in administered electricity prices due to negative monthly FCA. Additionally, we also expect a ↓2% MoM reduction in the transport index given the decline in administered fuel prices. In contrast, we anticipate core inflation to remain elevated in the high single digit territory.
Economy: Headline inflation to plunge to a 9-year low at 2.7% in January 2025 - By Pearl Research

Jan 31 2025



  • We project the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI)-based inflation rate for January 2025 to decelerate to 2.7% YoY, the lowest level observed since the November 2015 CPI print, in sharp contrast to 28.34% YoY observed in the corresponding period last year. Our estimates indicate that January 2025 CPI print should depict a 133bps deceleration from 4.07% YoY observed in December 2024.
  • On a month-on-month basis, in contrast, we project a 0.54% MoM increase in the CPI in January 2025, indicating reacceleration compared to 0.06% MoM in December 2024. Nonetheless, this uptick is well below the trailing 5-year average month-on-month inflation rate of 1.17%.
  • Notably, we anticipate food and housing inflation to plunge to multi-year lows to -1.48% and +0.18% YoY in January 2025, in part due to elevated base year effects. Additionally, we expect a 0.31% uptick in the transport index given flattish administered fuel prices. In contrast, we anticipate core inflation to remain elevated in the high single digit territory.