Morning News: Sovereign default risk; Pakistan most improved economy: Bloomberg - By Vector Research

Jun 30 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan stands out globally as the most improved economy in terms of reduction in sovereign default risk, as measured by CDS-implied probability. As per the latest data posted by Bloomberg Intelligence, Pakistan leads the world in sovereign risk improvement and tops global EM rankings. Pakistan topped Global EM Rankings in Default Risk Reduction, as the country has recorded the largest drop in sovereign default risk globally over the last 12 months.
  • In a timely supportive move, China has extended rollover and refinancing of its $3.4 billion commercial loans, facilitating Islamabad to meet the IMF condition of keeping the foreign reserves at over $14 billion at the end of the current fiscal year on June 30. China has rolled over $2.1 billion, which has been lying in the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) for the last three years, and also refinanced another $1.3 billion commercial loan, which Islamabad had paid back two months ago. Another $1 billion from Middle Eastern commercial banks and $500 million from multilateral financing has also been received, an official confided.
  • Flood project; Govtseeks $31m financing boost from WB The government of Pakistan has requested the World Bank for increasing the financing envelope by $31 million as well as restructuring of Integrated Flood Resilience and Adaptation Project.

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Pakistan Power: Base tariff cut and circular debt overhaul to reshape energy sector outlook - By AKD Research

Jul 7 2025


AKD Securities


  • The national base tariff is determined at PkR34.0/kwh for FY26, down by 4%YoY compared to PkR35.5/kwh in FY25.
  • GoP has accelerated its power sector reform agenda, with the PkR1.25tn commercial bank borrowing facility to reduce the mounting circular
  • Continued resolution of the circular debt would be beneficial for companies under our coverage space, namely: OGDC (Dec’25 TP: PkR371/sh), PPL (Dec’25 TP: PkR281/sh) and PSO (Dec’25 TP: PkR729/sh).
Autos: Marking FY25 as a year of recovery - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview automobile sales volumes for Jun-2025, expecting the three major players including Indus Motors Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR), and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post combined growth of 33%/9% YoY/MoM, reaching ~14.5k units – highest since Dec-2022.
  • All three companies are projected to post strong YoY volume growth, with HCAR leading peers with 65% YoY growth in Jun2025, followed by PSMC (+31% YoY), and INDU (+25% YoY), helped by pre-budget buying ahead of anticipated negative budgetary measures. Meanwhile, Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd (SAZEW) volumes also rose 55% YoY in Jun-2025.
  • For FY25 cumulatively, the auto sector witnessed a strong recovery, with volumes expected to grow by 37% to ~121k units, supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a rebound in consumer confidence amid stable car prices.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 setting a record - By JS Research

Jul 7 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Bullish momentum continued for the KSE-100 index, which gained 1,262 points to close at 131,949. Trading volumes stood at 733mn shares, compared to 900mn shares previously. The index is likely to retest Friday’s high of 132,130; a break above this level could target 133,412, with potential to rise further toward 135,232. On the downside, support is seen in the 130,710-131,600 range. The RSI and MACD continue to rise, reinforcing the positive outlook. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips,’ with risk defined below 130,716. Immediate support and resistance are placed at 131,067 and 132,480, respectively.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By HMFS Research

Jul 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations. While both sides have reached an understanding, a formal announcement is expected only after the US concludes similar ongoing negotiations with other trade partners. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline. The agreement, when signed, could lead to increased Pakistani imports of US goods — notably crude oil — and potential American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors.
  • The U.S. dollar hovered near its lowest since 2021 against the euro and the weakest since 2015 versus the Swiss franc on Monday, with traders alert for any trade-related headlines in the countdown to President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline. The dollar index , which measures the currency against those three rivals and three more major counterparts, was flat at 96.967, hovering above Tuesday’s nearly 3-1/2-year trough of 96.373.
  • US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he had signed 12 trade letters to be sent out next week ahead of an impending deadline for his tariffs to take effect. “I signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday, probably 12,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, adding that the countries to which the letters would be sent will be announced on the same day. His comments come days before steeper duties — which the president said on Thursday would range between 10 and 70 per cent — are set to take effect on dozens of economies, from Taiwan to the European Union.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By Vector Research

Jul 7 2025


Vector Securities


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations, reaching an understanding on a deal that could shape the future of the country’s key export sectors. The delegation arrived in Washington on Monday with the aim of finalising a long-term reciprocal tariff agreement that would prevent the re-imposition of a 29 per cent tariff on Pakistani exports — primarily textiles and agricultural products. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline.
  • Pakistan and Azerbaijan in a major development Friday signed a partnership agreement. The agreement for investment of a total of $2 billion by Azerbaijan in the economic sector of Pakistan.
  • Foreign exchange companies contributed around $450 million to remittance inflows during June, taking their total contribution to approximately $5 billion in FY25, according to the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP). “We sold about $450m to banks in June, highlighting our growing role in supporting the country’s exchange rate stability,” said Zafar Paracha, Secretary General of ECAP.
Morning News: Azerbaijan to invest $2bn in economic sector WE Research

Jul 7 2025



  • Pakistan and Azerbaijan have signed a significant $2 billion investment agreement, marking a new milestone in bilateral economic relations. The deal, signed in the presence of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, and Azerbaijani Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov, reflects growing investor confidence in Pakistan. It follows a cordial meeting between Prime Minister Sharif and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Khankandi, with a more detailed agreement to be finalized during the Azerbaijani President’s upcoming visit to Pakistan. Both countries committed to further enhancing cooperation across various sectors, including trade, investment, and climate issues, as emphasized by Prime Minister Sharif during his remarks in Shusha.
  • With less than a week before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have reached a preliminary understanding on a trade agreement aimed at securing Pakistan’s key export sectors, particularly textiles and agriculture, from the re-imposition of a 29% tariff. Led by Commerce Secretary Jawad Paal, the Pakistani delegation concluded four days of negotiations in Washington, with a formal announcement expected after the US finalizes talks with other trade partners. The proposed deal includes reciprocal tariff arrangements, increased Pakistani imports of US goods such as crude oil, and potential American investment in Pakistan’s mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors—including projects like Reko Diq. Officials remain optimistic that the agreement will preserve Pakistan’s access to the US market and revitalize economic ties strained since the Trump-era tariffs.
  • Oil prices dropped over 1% after OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing a larger-than-expected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August, raising fears of oversupply. Brent crude fell to $67.50 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped to $65.68. The hike, up from prior monthly increases of 411,000bpd, reflects a more aggressive push for market share, with Saudi Arabia driving much of the actual output gains. OPEC+ cited strong global demand and low inventories as justification. Goldman Sachs expects a final 550,000bpd increase to be announced for September at the group’s August 3 meeting. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia raised prices for its flagship Arab Light crude in a show of confidence in demand. In a related development, U.S. President Trump indicated higher tariffs will be announced by July 9, with implementation set for August 1.
Market Wrap: Banking on Bulls: KSE-100 Hits a New Milestone - By HMFS Research

Jul 4 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) sustained its upward trajectory in today’s session, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index surging to a fresh intra-day high of 132,130 before closing at 131,949, up by a robust 1,262 points (+0.97%). The rally was supported by sustained investor interest—particularly in the banking sector—as participants continued to rotate into fundamentally sound, undervalued plays amid a supportive macroeconomic backdrop. Trading activity remained strong, with the All-Share Index posting a healthy turnover of 731mn shares, while KSE-100 volumes came in at 199mn shares, indicating broad-based participation. Top volume leaders included, WTL (58mn), BML (36mn), and TREET (30mn). The banking sector emerged as the primary driver of index gains, supported by attractive dividend yields, and compelling P/B valuations. The recent softening in Pakistan’s sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads has further improved investor sentiment by lowering perceived external risk, catalyzing flows into equities. While the momentum remains firmly intact, the market’s proximity to psychological resistance levels suggests room for near-term consolidation, especially as investors may opt to lock in recent gains. However, the medium-term narrative remains constructive, underpinned by prospects of continued IMF engagement, fiscal reforms, and easing external account pressures. We continue to advise investors to remain selective and focus on sectors with resilient fundamentals and earnings visibility. In the current phase of the cycle, valuation discipline, liquidity considerations, and macro-driven event positioning will remain critical in navigating market dynamics.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index closed the session on a strong note, gaining 1,262 points to settle at 131,949. Broad-based buying was seen across key sectors, with Autos, banks, and Power leading the charge. Investor sentiment remained upbeat, supported by improved macros and anticipation of further monetary easing. Looking forward, we have a favorable view on the market in the near term, backed by favorable liquidity conditions, positive policy cues, and foreign interest returning to key sectors. However, intermittent consolidation cannot be ruled out as the index approaches resistance levels.
Fertilizers: Sales to recover in June-2025; albeit inventory level remains high - By JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • As per provisional figures, Urea off-take during Jun-2025 is expected to clock in at 580k tons, arriving at a growth of 20% YoY/ 39% MoM. Cumulatively, Urea off-take is likely to post a negative growth of 23% YoY during 1HCY25. On the other hand, DAP off-take is likely to fall 15% YoY during the month.
  • Company-wise, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to post Urea off-take of 269k tons in Jun-2025, up 4% YoY. This includes 51k tons of granular Urea. Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is likely to post growth 32% YoY, arriving at 205k tons. In terms of market share, EFERT Urea share improved by 3ppts YoY to 35%, while FFC’s share dipped 8ppts YoY during the month.
  • Urea inventory is expected to remain elevated at around 1.3mn tons by the end of 1HCY25. Assuming capacity utilization remains stable at current levels, allowance of export can be a key trigger in our view, helping to mitigate inventory buildup despite the anticipated increase in local sales during 2HCY25.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue - By JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index witnessed a volatile session to close at 130,687, up 343 points DoD. Volumes stood at 900mn shares compared to 1,026mn shares traded in the last session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 131,325 with a break above targeting 132,134, which can extend to 133,412. However, any downside will find support in the range of 129,050-129,870 levels. The RSI and the MACD are heading up, supporting a positive outlook. We advise investors to 'Buy on dips', keeping stoploss below 128,616. The support and resistance levels are placed at 129,867 and 131,415, respectively.
Morning News: Pakistan, US reach accord on trade and tariffs - By Vector Research

Jul 7 2025


Vector Securities


  • With less than a week to go before the July 9 deadline, Pakistan and the United States have concluded a critical round of trade negotiations, reaching an understanding on a deal that could shape the future of the country’s key export sectors. The delegation arrived in Washington on Monday with the aim of finalising a long-term reciprocal tariff agreement that would prevent the re-imposition of a 29 per cent tariff on Pakistani exports — primarily textiles and agricultural products. The tariff relief, temporarily paused earlier this year, was at risk of expiring if no progress had been made by the July 9 deadline.
  • Pakistan and Azerbaijan in a major development Friday signed a partnership agreement. The agreement for investment of a total of $2 billion by Azerbaijan in the economic sector of Pakistan.
  • Foreign exchange companies contributed around $450 million to remittance inflows during June, taking their total contribution to approximately $5 billion in FY25, according to the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP). “We sold about $450m to banks in June, highlighting our growing role in supporting the country’s exchange rate stability,” said Zafar Paracha, Secretary General of ECAP.
Morning News: Forex reserves climb to $18bn as of June 27 - By Vector Research

Jul 4 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves rose by $3.694 billion to $18.09 billion in the week ending June 27, the central bank said on Thursday, indicating a significant improvement in the country’s current account balance and the realisation of planned inflows. The forex reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by $3.66 billion to $12.73 billion in the reporting week due to receipt of the multilateral and commercial loans, the SBP said in the statement.
  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb advanced strategic partnerships during a series of high-level bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FFD4), held this week in Seville. Representing Pakistan at the UN-backed conference that ran from June 30 to July 3, Aurangzeb held discussions with counterparts and institutional leaders to bolster cooperation in trade, climate resilience, digital transformation and development finance.
  • Pakistan has adopted an 'open handed policy' to award multibillion-dollar mining contracts, by providing equal opportunities to global competitors including the United States (US), China and Russia. China and Russia have long been arch-rivals of the US. At present, Pakistan is simultaneously engaging with all three countries.
Morning News: June CPI inflation clocks in at 3.2pc YoY - By Vector Research

Jul 2 2025


Vector Securities


  • The Consumer Price Index-based inflation clocked in at 3.2 percent on year-on-year basis in June 2025 as compared to 3.5 percent of the previous month and 12.6 percent in June 2024, says the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, it increased by 0.2per cent in June 2025 as compared to a decrease of 0.2per cent in the previous month and an increase of 0.5per cent in June 2024.
  • According to the PBS data, imports grew 6.57pc to $58.38bn in July-June FY25 from $54.78bn over the last year. Imports surged to $4.86bn in June from $4.96bn last year, a decline of 1.97pc. Month-on-month, imports decreased 7.08pc. The trade deficit in July-June FY25 increased by 9pc to $26.27bn from $24.11bn over the last year. In June, the deficit decelerated by 3.45pc to $2.32bn from $2.41bn last year. The trade gap contracted to $24.08bn in FY24 from $27.47bn in the preceding year.
  • Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) Chairman Rashid Mahmood Langrial Tuesday said that to achieve a national tax-to-GDP ratio of 18 percent by 2027–28, the provinces would be required to contribute three percent (currently 0.8 percent), amounting to Rs5.265 trillion annually (currently Rs961 billion), and the federation 15 percent (currently 11.3 percent, including the petroleum development levy (PDL)).
Morning News: Sovereign default risk; Pakistan most improved economy: Bloomberg - By Vector Research

Jun 30 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan stands out globally as the most improved economy in terms of reduction in sovereign default risk, as measured by CDS-implied probability. As per the latest data posted by Bloomberg Intelligence, Pakistan leads the world in sovereign risk improvement and tops global EM rankings. Pakistan topped Global EM Rankings in Default Risk Reduction, as the country has recorded the largest drop in sovereign default risk globally over the last 12 months.
  • In a timely supportive move, China has extended rollover and refinancing of its $3.4 billion commercial loans, facilitating Islamabad to meet the IMF condition of keeping the foreign reserves at over $14 billion at the end of the current fiscal year on June 30. China has rolled over $2.1 billion, which has been lying in the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) for the last three years, and also refinanced another $1.3 billion commercial loan, which Islamabad had paid back two months ago. Another $1 billion from Middle Eastern commercial banks and $500 million from multilateral financing has also been received, an official confided.
  • Flood project; Govtseeks $31m financing boost from WB The government of Pakistan has requested the World Bank for increasing the financing envelope by $31 million as well as restructuring of Integrated Flood Resilience and Adaptation Project.
Morning News: IMF may object to cap relaxation for transactions by ‘ineligible persons’ in revised finance bill - By Vector Research

Jun 25 2025


Vector Securities


  • The IMF may raise objections to the revised Finance Bill 2025-26 which proposes relaxations for increasing thresholds to ban “ineligible persons” from buying property and vehicles.
  • The government of Pakistan and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Tuesday signed a $350 million loan agreement for the “Women Inclusive Finance Sector Development Program (Subprogram-II)”.
  • Pakistan government has requested the World Bank (WB) for restructuring of the Higher Education Development in Pakistan (HEDP) project worth $393.73 million for the fourth time to allow for completion of critical information technology (IT) and ITrelated activities at the universities whose impact will be seen beyond the project period.
Morning News: Pakistan seeking to get two loans of $3.3bn from Chinese banks - By Vector Research

Jun 24 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan is aiming to secure $3.3 billion in the form of two foreign loans — one a syndicated loan and the other a refinancing of commercial loans — from Chinese banks within the next few days. It is expected that the foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will surpass the $14 billion mark if this deal materialises within the outgoing financial year, which ends on June 30.
  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Monday unveiled additional budget proposals in the National Assembly, introducing new taxation measures and announcing economic initiatives aimed at broadening the tax base and promoting compliance. Aurangzeb proposed an increase in the tax rate on income derived from the debt portion of mutual funds issued to companies, raising it from 25 percent to 29 percent.
  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Monday formally unveiled a Rs36 billion mini budget in the National Assembly and announced to exclude almost the entire population from disclosing source of income before buying a big home, a car or running a bank account.
Morning News: New taxation measures announced - By Vector Research

Jun 23 2025


Vector Securities


  • Chairman Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) Rashid Mahmood Langrial Sunday announced new taxation measures of Rs 36 billion to narrow down financial gap on account of reduction in sales tax from 18 percent to 10 percent on solar panels and proposed increase in salary for government employees. FBR Chairman highlighted that the measures have been proposed to fill the financial gap for 2025-26. National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance approved following three new taxation measures: (i); Federal Excise Duty of 10 percent on Day old Chicks (DOC) of poultry sector. (ii); Rate of tax increased from 25 percent to 29 percent on dividend received by a company from mutual fund deriving income from profit on debt. (iii); Withholding tax has been increased from 15 to 20 percent on profit on government securities paid to any person (institutional investors) other than an individual.
  • Pakistan secured nearly $20bn in foreign loans and grants during the first 11 months (JulyMay) of 2024-25, surpassing the annual target of $19.2bn set for the fiscal year ending June 30. Almost half of this amount comprised legacy rollovers from China, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, while fresh loans and grant inflows totalled $6.89bn — about 9pc lower than the same period last fiscal year.
  • The World Bank said Thursday it is worried that some countries are less and less transparent about their public debt and use complex borrowing tools, making it harder to measure how much they owe. To remedy this the bank called for a fundamental change in the way debtor and creditor countries report and disclose debt. The worries concern in particular lowincome countries that make increasing use of borrowing arrangements the bank considers opaque. These include private placements — a kind of funding round done not publicly but privately, central bank swaps, and collateralized transactions, the bank said in a report on debt transparency.
Morning News: SBP forex reserves rise by $46m to $11.72bn - By Vector Research

Jun 20 2025


Vector Securities


  • The country’s total liquid foreign reserves rose by $130 million to $17.005 billion. The reserves of commercial banks increased by $83 million to $5.283 billion. The SBP’s reserves continued to increase due to a current account surplus. Inflows from the International Monetary Fund, rollovers from friendly nations, and the SBP’s dollar buying from the market also played a crucial role in bolstering forex reserves.
  • Federal Minister for Energy Ali Pervaiz Malik is leading Pakistan's delegation to the St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) 2025 from June 18–21, 2025. According to an official statement issued Thursday, Malik held key meetings on the sidelines of the forum, including one with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Tsivilev, who also chairs the Pakistan Russia Inter-Governmental Commission (IGC). Both sides discussed avenues for cooperation in energy, connectivity, trade, investment, banking, insurance, mining, and people-to-people exchanges.
  • The government has flagged a series of critical risks to next year’s budget and medium-term outlook, including slower than targeted GDP growth, inflation shocks, exchange rate volatility, lower revenue buoyancy, debt servicing costs, poor performance of state-owned entities (SOEs) and unexpected climatic and other natural disasters.
Morning News: Pakistan returns to commercial debt market, clinches $1bn loan facility - By Vector Research

Jun 19 2025


Vector Securities


  • In the aftermath of the IMF program, Pakistan has resumed commercial financing from international banks and signed a syndicated loan of $1 billion for five years. Islamabad is also making arrangements for securing refinancing of a $1.3 billion loan from Chinese banks, and it is expected that a total of $2.3 billion will be obtained by June 30, 2025. The foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan are expected to go up in the coming weeks with the help of borrowed dollar inflows. The foreign exchange reserves may go close to $14 billion mark against $11.6 billion standing on June 6, 2025. The two separate commercial loan facility will help Pakistan to increase its foreign exchange reserves.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Wednesday said the government successfully convinced the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to exempt Pakistan’s agriculture sector from taxation, despite persistent demands from the global lender.
  • Financial inclusion in Pakistan has seen a remarkable fourfold increase over the past decade, rising from just 8.0 per cent in 2013 to 35 per cent in 2024, according to the newly released Karandaaz Financial Inclusion Survey (K-FIS) 2024. The survey, launched by Karandaaz Pakistan, provides vital demand-side data and marks 10 years of tracking financial behaviours across the country.
Morning News: $3bn financing for Reko Diq project advances with IFC/IDA approval of loan - By Vector Research

Jun 18 2025


Vector Securities


  • Reko Diq Mining Company (RDMC) is continuing to progress with the raising of up to $3 billion of limited recourse project finance to support the development of Phase 1 of the Reko Diq project involving a group of lenders including the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the International Development Association (IDA), Asian Development Bank (ADB), US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), Export-Import Bank of the United States (US EXIM), Export Development Canada (EDC), Euler Hermes AG and KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH of Germany, Export kreditnämnden (EKN) of Sweden, and Finnvera Oyi (Finnvera) of Finland, together with a covered commercial bank tranche. RDMC remains on track to sign project finance documents and have the project loan available for initial drawdown in the second half of 2025.
  • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) fell by 7.6 per cent to $1,979 million during the first 11 months of FY25 compared to $2,142m in the same period last fiscal year, showed data issued by the State Bank on Tuesday. FDI in May declined by 36 per cent year-on-year to $111m. The inflow in April was $140m, March $26m, February $94.7m and January $194m.
  • Pakistan’s current account recorded a surplus of $1.8 billion during the first 11 months of the current fiscal year (FY25), largely supported by robust inflows of workers’ remittances.