KseAlert | Market Wrap: Breaking the Ceiling: PSX Rockets Past 128K on Economic Euphoria

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Market Wrap: Banking on Bulls: KSE-100 Hits a New Milestone - By HMFS Research

Jul 4 2025

HMFS Research

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) sustained its upward trajectory in today’s session, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index surging to a fresh intra-day high of 132,130 before closing at 131,949, up by a robust 1,262 points (+0.97%). The rally was supported by sustained investor interest—particularly in the banking sector—as participants continued to rotate into fundamentally sound, undervalued plays amid a supportive macroeconomic backdrop. Trading activity remained strong, with the All-Share Index posting a healthy turnover of 731mn shares, while KSE-100 volumes came in at 199mn shares, indicating broad-based participation. Top volume leaders included, WTL (58mn), BML (36mn), and TREET (30mn). The banking sector emerged as the primary driver of index gains, supported by attractive dividend yields, and compelling P/B valuations. The recent softening in Pakistan’s sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads has further improved investor sentiment by lowering perceived external risk, catalyzing flows into equities. While the momentum remains firmly intact, the market’s proximity to psychological resistance levels suggests room for near-term consolidation, especially as investors may opt to lock in recent gains. However, the medium-term narrative remains constructive, underpinned by prospects of continued IMF engagement, fiscal reforms, and easing external account pressures. We continue to advise investors to remain selective and focus on sectors with resilient fundamentals and earnings visibility. In the current phase of the cycle, valuation discipline, liquidity considerations, and macro-driven event positioning will remain critical in navigating market dynamics.

Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - JS Research

Jul 4 2025

JS Global Capital

The KSE-100 Index closed the session on a strong note, gaining 1,262 points to settle at 131,949. Broad-based buying was seen across key sectors, with Autos, banks, and Power leading the charge. Investor sentiment remained upbeat, supported by improved macros and anticipation of further monetary easing. Looking forward, we have a favorable view on the market in the near term, backed by favorable liquidity conditions, positive policy cues, and foreign interest returning to key sectors. However, intermittent consolidation cannot be ruled out as the index approaches resistance levels.

Fertilizers: Sales to recover in June-2025; albeit inventory level remains high - By JS Research

Jul 4 2025

JS Global Capital

As per provisional figures, Urea off-take during Jun-2025 is expected to clock in at 580k tons, arriving at a growth of 20% YoY/ 39% MoM. Cumulatively, Urea off-take is likely to post a negative growth of 23% YoY during 1HCY25. On the other hand, DAP off-take is likely to fall 15% YoY during the month.

Company-wise, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to post Urea off-take of 269k tons in Jun-2025, up 4% YoY. This includes 51k tons of granular Urea. Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is likely to post growth 32% YoY, arriving at 205k tons. In terms of market share, EFERT Urea share improved by 3ppts YoY to 35%, while FFC’s share dipped 8ppts YoY during the month.

Urea inventory is expected to remain elevated at around 1.3mn tons by the end of 1HCY25. Assuming capacity utilization remains stable at current levels, allowance of export can be a key trigger in our view, helping to mitigate inventory buildup despite the anticipated increase in local sales during 2HCY25.

Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue - By JS Research

Jul 4 2025

JS Global Capital

The KSE-100 Index witnessed a volatile session to close at 130,687, up 343 points DoD. Volumes stood at 900mn shares compared to 1,026mn shares traded in the last session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 131,325 with a break above targeting 132,134, which can extend to 133,412. However, any downside will find support in the range of 129,050-129,870 levels. The RSI and the MACD are heading up, supporting a positive outlook. We advise investors to 'Buy on dips', keeping stoploss below 128,616. The support and resistance levels are placed at 129,867 and 131,415, respectively.

Morning News: SBP reserves hit nearly 40-month high on multilateral, commercial loans - By HMFS Research

Jul 4 2025

HMFS Research

Pakistan’s central bank reserves hit around 40-month high this week, helped by multilateral and commercial loans that pushed the dollar stockpile to reach $14.51 billion as of June 30, 2025. The foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by $3.66 billion or 40.41% WoW to $12.73 billion during the week ended on June 27, 2025. The reserves held by commercial banks rose by $30.9m or 0.58% WoW to $5.36bn. Similarly, the country's total reserves increased by $3.69bn or 25.66% WoW to $18.09bn.

At the FfD4 conference in Spain, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to international partnerships and economic reforms for sustainable development. He held key bilateral meetings with global counterparts, including officials from the Netherlands, World Bank, IFAD, and ICC, discussing cooperation in trade, climate resilience, institutional capacity, and rural development. Highlights included updates on Pakistan’s IMF program, the upcoming National Green Taxonomy, and the endorsement of the World Bank’s 10-year Country Partnership Framework, reflecting Pakistan’s active engagement in advancing its reform and resilience agenda.

Banks across Pakistan have increased the fee for withdrawing cash from non-host ATMs—from Rs 23.44 to Rs 35 per transaction—effective from July 2025. Of this, Rs 28 goes to the ATM-owning bank to cover operational and maintenance costs, with Rs 7 retained by 1LINK, the interbank network. The move, justified by rising interbank transaction and equipment servicing costs, raises concerns for low-income and rural users, for whom frequent small withdrawals now carry a heavier burden amid inflation and economic strain.

Morning News: Forex reserves climb to $18bn as of June 27 - By Vector Research

Jul 4 2025

Vector Securities

Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves rose by $3.694 billion to $18.09 billion in the week ending June 27, the central bank said on Thursday, indicating a significant improvement in the country’s current account balance and the realisation of planned inflows. The forex reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by $3.66 billion to $12.73 billion in the reporting week due to receipt of the multilateral and commercial loans, the SBP said in the statement.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb advanced strategic partnerships during a series of high-level bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FFD4), held this week in Seville. Representing Pakistan at the UN-backed conference that ran from June 30 to July 3, Aurangzeb held discussions with counterparts and institutional leaders to bolster cooperation in trade, climate resilience, digital transformation and development finance.

Pakistan has adopted an 'open handed policy' to award multibillion-dollar mining contracts, by providing equal opportunities to global competitors including the United States (US), China and Russia. China and Russia have long been arch-rivals of the US. At present, Pakistan is simultaneously engaging with all three countries.

Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note - By IIS Research

Jul 3 2025

Ismail Iqbal Securities

The benchmark index closed on a positive note, marking a new all time high both intraday and at the close. While the index showed strength, it remained somewhat volatile throughout the session, with instances of profit taking observed as investors locked in gains after the recent rally. Trading volumes decreased to 280mn shares today as compared to 346mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 343 points to close at 130,687 level, up by 0.26% DoD. Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, Power Generation & Distribution, and Oil & Gas Marketing Companies sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 392 points to the index.

Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 3 2025

JS Global Capital

The KSE-100 Index rose 342 points at day-end to close at 130,686, after hitting an intraday all-time high of 131,325. The bullish momentum, driven by strong institutional buying and optimism over earnings, particularly in the energy sector (OGDC, MARI, PPL), fueled early gains. Although profit-taking pared initial advances, the index stayed in the green. With positive macroeconomic indicators and sustained investor confidence, the market is expected to maintain its upward trajectory in the near term, though intermittent corrections remain likely.

Market Wrap:; Riding the Wave: PSX Holds Ground After Scaling New Heights - By HMFS Research

Jul 3 2025

HMFS Research

The equity market extended its bullish momentum, with the KSE-100 Index continuing its record-breaking streak, reaching a new intraday high of 131,325—up by 981 points. However, the momentum tapered in the latter half of the session, with the index holding in the green but ultimately closing at 130,687—recording a modest gain of 343 points. Investor confidence remained elevated, underpinned by improving macroeconomic indicators and renewed optimism following the State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign reserves surpassing IMF benchmarks. The rally was primarily supported by strong performance in the banking and energy sectors, both of which contributed significantly to the index's gains. Trading activity remained robust, with 280mn shares traded on the KSE-100 Index and 897mn shares exchanged across the broader market. Volume leaders included WTL (49mn), IMAGE (37mn), and BOP (35mn). Looking ahead, while the bullish momentum is expected to continue, the sharp rally may trigger short-term profit-taking as investors capitalize on recent gains. Nonetheless, improving economic fundamentals are expected to provide a cushion for market stability. Investors are advised to stay vigilant and focus on fundamentally strong stocks with long-term growth potential.

Economy: Tariff rationalization to bring in competitiveness - By AKD Research

Jul 3 2025

AKD Securities

Govt. has issued SROs pertaining to Additional Customs Duty (ACD) and Regulatory Duties (RDs), in line with National Tariff Policy 2025–30.

ACD has been revised to 0%, 2%, 4%, and 6% (previously 2%, 4%, 6%, and 7%), while RD has been removed on multiple PCT codes, with the maximum RD rate reduced from 90% to 50%.

Sector-wise, margins for auto assemblers are likely to normalize from recent highs, while chemical, steel, and textile spinning/weaving sectors would face margin pressures.

Market Wrap: Banking on Bulls: KSE-100 Hits a New Milestone - By HMFS Research

Jul 4 2025

HMFS Research

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) sustained its upward trajectory in today’s session, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index surging to a fresh intra-day high of 132,130 before closing at 131,949, up by a robust 1,262 points (+0.97%). The rally was supported by sustained investor interest—particularly in the banking sector—as participants continued to rotate into fundamentally sound, undervalued plays amid a supportive macroeconomic backdrop. Trading activity remained strong, with the All-Share Index posting a healthy turnover of 731mn shares, while KSE-100 volumes came in at 199mn shares, indicating broad-based participation. Top volume leaders included, WTL (58mn), BML (36mn), and TREET (30mn). The banking sector emerged as the primary driver of index gains, supported by attractive dividend yields, and compelling P/B valuations. The recent softening in Pakistan’s sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads has further improved investor sentiment by lowering perceived external risk, catalyzing flows into equities. While the momentum remains firmly intact, the market’s proximity to psychological resistance levels suggests room for near-term consolidation, especially as investors may opt to lock in recent gains. However, the medium-term narrative remains constructive, underpinned by prospects of continued IMF engagement, fiscal reforms, and easing external account pressures. We continue to advise investors to remain selective and focus on sectors with resilient fundamentals and earnings visibility. In the current phase of the cycle, valuation discipline, liquidity considerations, and macro-driven event positioning will remain critical in navigating market dynamics.

Morning News: SBP reserves hit nearly 40-month high on multilateral, commercial loans - By HMFS Research

Jul 4 2025

HMFS Research

Pakistan’s central bank reserves hit around 40-month high this week, helped by multilateral and commercial loans that pushed the dollar stockpile to reach $14.51 billion as of June 30, 2025. The foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by $3.66 billion or 40.41% WoW to $12.73 billion during the week ended on June 27, 2025. The reserves held by commercial banks rose by $30.9m or 0.58% WoW to $5.36bn. Similarly, the country's total reserves increased by $3.69bn or 25.66% WoW to $18.09bn.

At the FfD4 conference in Spain, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to international partnerships and economic reforms for sustainable development. He held key bilateral meetings with global counterparts, including officials from the Netherlands, World Bank, IFAD, and ICC, discussing cooperation in trade, climate resilience, institutional capacity, and rural development. Highlights included updates on Pakistan’s IMF program, the upcoming National Green Taxonomy, and the endorsement of the World Bank’s 10-year Country Partnership Framework, reflecting Pakistan’s active engagement in advancing its reform and resilience agenda.

Banks across Pakistan have increased the fee for withdrawing cash from non-host ATMs—from Rs 23.44 to Rs 35 per transaction—effective from July 2025. Of this, Rs 28 goes to the ATM-owning bank to cover operational and maintenance costs, with Rs 7 retained by 1LINK, the interbank network. The move, justified by rising interbank transaction and equipment servicing costs, raises concerns for low-income and rural users, for whom frequent small withdrawals now carry a heavier burden amid inflation and economic strain.

Market Wrap:; Riding the Wave: PSX Holds Ground After Scaling New Heights - By HMFS Research

Jul 3 2025

HMFS Research

The equity market extended its bullish momentum, with the KSE-100 Index continuing its record-breaking streak, reaching a new intraday high of 131,325—up by 981 points. However, the momentum tapered in the latter half of the session, with the index holding in the green but ultimately closing at 130,687—recording a modest gain of 343 points. Investor confidence remained elevated, underpinned by improving macroeconomic indicators and renewed optimism following the State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign reserves surpassing IMF benchmarks. The rally was primarily supported by strong performance in the banking and energy sectors, both of which contributed significantly to the index's gains. Trading activity remained robust, with 280mn shares traded on the KSE-100 Index and 897mn shares exchanged across the broader market. Volume leaders included WTL (49mn), IMAGE (37mn), and BOP (35mn). Looking ahead, while the bullish momentum is expected to continue, the sharp rally may trigger short-term profit-taking as investors capitalize on recent gains. Nonetheless, improving economic fundamentals are expected to provide a cushion for market stability. Investors are advised to stay vigilant and focus on fundamentally strong stocks with long-term growth potential.

Morning News: ADB, Sindh launch Rs440m initiative - By HMFS Research

Jul 3 2025

HMFS Research

The Asian Development Bank (ADB), in collaboration with the Government of Sindh, has launched a Rs440 million business recovery and empowerment initiative for families impacted by the 2022 floods. According to a statement issued on Wednesday, ADB's Gender Specialist Judha Bukhari led a delegation to Hyderabad on Wednesday and held a strategic meeting with the Hyderabad Chamber of Small Traders & Small Industry (HCSTSI). During the meeting, Bukhari stated that 2.1 million families were affected by the floods and, in the first phase, over 6,000 households will receive financial assistance ranging from Rs100,000 to Rs300,000 to help them establish small businesses suited to their needs.

The government spent Rs905 billion on development schemes in the last fiscal year, which was lower than the allocation and may now require a downward revision in the 2.7% economic growth rate that had been worked out on the basis of Rs1.1 trillion in expenses. Of the Rs905 billion, a little over half — or Rs456 billion — was spent during the last two months (May-June), also underscoring the need to revisit the current budget strategy that artificially suppresses expenses. According to provisional figures, the federal government spent Rs905 billion under the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) in the fiscal year 2024-25, which ended on Monday.

Pakistan's manufacturing sector showed signs of cooling as the HBL Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slipped to a 10-month low of 50.5 in June, down from 51.1 in the previous month. While the reading remained above the no-change threshold of 50 for the 14th consecutive month, it signaled a notable slowdown in momentum due to weakness in new order volumes. This was the first instance of consecutive new order contractions. To align with softer production needs, firms proactively reduced both employment levels and input procurement. Despite the slowdown, there were encouraging developments on the export front.

Market Wrap: All-Time High for KSE-100: Stability and Liquidity Fuel Market Gains - By HMFS Research

Jul 2 2025

HMFS Research

The Pakistan stock market continued its upward trajectory, marking a significant milestone as the KSE-100 index touched an all-time high of 130,546 points during today’s session. The rally was underpinned by improving investor sentiment, supported by a declining inflationary trend and broadly stable macroeconomic indicators. The banking sector played a pivotal role in driving the index higher, reflecting renewed confidence in cyclical sectors amid expectations of sustained economic stability. By the close, the KSE-100 settled at 130,344, recording a substantial gain of 2,145 points. Trading activity remained robust, with 346mn shares changing hands on the KSE-100 and total market volumes reaching 1.02bn shares. The most actively traded stocks included WTL (90mn shares), BOP (90mn shares), and KOSM (46mn shares). While the short-term outlook remains positive, the sharp rally may lead to some profit-taking or a short pause in the upward trend as the index nears higher levels. Going forward, investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic developments and maintain focus on fundamentally sound stocks with strong long-term growth potential, as market volatility may increase in the sessions ahead

Market Wrap: Breaking the Ceiling: PSX Rockets Past 128K on Economic Euphoria - By HMFS Research

Jul 1 2025

HMFS Research

The KSE-100 index posted a remarkable performance today, registering a new all-time intraday high of 128,476, driven by surging investor confidence following a sharp decline in June’s CPI inflation to 3.2%—down 8.5% m/m. Improved macroeconomic indicators, coupled with optimism over upcoming corporate results post fiscal year-end, fuelled sustained buying interest. The rally was spearheaded by the banking sector, bolstered by favourable external ratings and sector-specific tailwinds. The index closed at 128,199, up 2,572 points, marking a robust session. Trading activity remained healthy, with 337mn shares exchanged on the KSE-100 and 1.02bn shares traded across the broader market. Volume leaders included KOSM (85mn), BOP (74mn), and SSGC (69mn). Going forward, while a short-term correction cannot be ruled out given the steep upward trajectory, overall sentiment is expected to stay buoyant amid continued macroeconomic improvement. Investors are encouraged to monitor market developments and remain focused on fundamentally strong stocks with long-term growth potential.

Mari Energies Limited (MARI): 3QFY25 Strategic Rebranding & Diversification - By HMFS Research

Jun 30 2025

HMFS Research

Rebranded from Mari Petroleum to Mari Energies in Jan 2025, marking a strategic shift into minerals, technology, and cloud services.

Operates as a holding company with full ownership of Mari Technologies and Mari Minerals, and a 25% stake in Pakistan International Oil Ltd. (PIOL), Abu Dhabi.

Covers 97,166 sq. km across 46 ELs and 14 D&PLs, including Offshore Block-5 in Abu Dhabi.

Morning News: The Hague court delivers major blow to India’s IWT suspension - By HMFS Research

Jun 30 2025

HMFS Research

In a major boon for Pakistan in its dispute over the ‘one-sided’ suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague has ruled that India’s actions have no bearing on its competence to adjudicate the matter. The court found that its competence cannot be affected by the unilateral decision of a party taken after the initiation of arbitral proceedings, regardless of whether India’s recent decision was characterised as a suspension of the treaty, or otherwise. The court further found that it has a continuing responsibility to advance proceedings in a timely, efficient and fair manner, notwithstanding India’s position on “abeyance”.

China has rolled over $3.4 billion in loans to Pakistan, two senior Pakistani government officials told Reuters on Sunday, in a move that will help boost Islamabad’s foreign exchange reserves, a requirement of the International Monetary Fund. Beijing rolled over $2.1 billion, which has been in Pakistan’s central bank’s reserves for the last three years, and refinanced another $1.3 billion commercial loan, which Islamabad had paid back two months ago, the sources said.

Oil prices fell 1% on Monday as an easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the prospect of another OPEC+ output hike in August boosted the supply outlook. Brent crude futures fell 66 cents, or 0.97%, to $67.11 a barrel by 0031 GMT, ahead of the August contract’s expiry later on Monday. The more active September contract was at $65.97, down 83 cents. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 94 cents, or 1.43%, to $64.58 a barrel. Last week, both benchmarks posted their biggest weekly decline since March 2023, but they are set to finish higher in June with a second consecutive monthly gain of more than 5%

Morning News: Trade gap with nine states widens to $11.17bn - By HMFS Research

Jun 26 2025

HMFS Research

Pakistan’s trade deficit with nine neighbouring countries widened by 32.82 per cent to $11.17 billion during the first 11 months of the current fiscal year (FY25), up from $8.41bn in the same period a year earlier, official data showed. While exports to Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka recorded notable growth — buoyed in part by changing political dynamics in the region — the overall trade gap continued to expand due to surging imports, particularly from China, India and Bangladesh.

Pakistan and the United States are heading toward finalising trade talks, exploring possibilities of a Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) to incentivize trade on a reciprocal basis. In the aftermath of Field Marshal General Asim Munir’s recent visit to the US, both countries are finalising trade negotiations. Ways are being explored to either finalise the PTA or bilateral trade agreement (BTA). Washington has opted for BTT with those countries where the trade deficit runs into multi-billion-dollars per annum. The US can favour Pakistan by placing its textile exports in the category of 10 percent tariff after receiving incentivized based tariff on its exports of cotton and soybean to Pakistan. Both the countries are exploring incentives in line with the World Trade Organization (WTO) conditions, said the official sources.

The overall Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose by 9.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY25 compared to the preceding quarter, signalling a steady improvement in public sentiment regarding the economy and personal finances. The index, which is measured on a scale of 0 to 200 — with 100 as the neutral point — recorded a score of 96.2 in Q4FY25, up from 88.1 in the previous quarter. A score below 100 indicates pessimism, while a reading above 100 denotes optimism.

Market Wrap: KSE-100 Extends Bullish Run Amid Regional Calm and Economic Optimism - By HMFS Research

Jun 25 2025

HMFS Research

The KSE-100 index sustained its upward momentum today, fuelled by optimism over a potential ceasefire and de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East following the Israel-Iran conflict. The improving geopolitical outlook served as a key confidence booster for investors, encouraging a value-driven rally on the bourse. The withdrawal of the export facilitation scheme on cotton and yarn imports levelled the playing field for local industry, sparking investor interest in textile stocks and boosting confidence in domestic cotton development. The broader economic backdrop also added to investor confidence, with improving macro indicators contributing to bullish sentiment. The banking sector led the charge today, lifting the benchmark index to an intraday high of 1,010 points before the KSE-100 ultimately settled at 122,762, up by 515 points. Trading volumes were moderate, with 221mn shares exchanged on the KSE-100 index and 739mn across the broader market. Volume leaders included WTL (102mn), PRL (47mn), and CNERGY (40mn). Looking ahead, the positive momentum is expected to continue, supported by regional stability, balanced global oil prices, and Pakistan’s improving economic fundamentals. That said, after two consecutive sessions of aggressive buying, a phase of profit-taking or short-term correction may emerge. Investors are advised to remain vigilant, monitor market signals closely, and focus on fundamentally strong stocks with long-term growth potential.