Fertilizer: Urea Sales Up 21%YoY in Jun’25 - By Sherman Research

Jul 2 2025


Sherman Securities


  • According to provisional data, urea sales during June’25 is expected to clock in at 582k tons (up 21%YoY). Despite weaker farm economics, the YoY increase in urea sales can be mainly attributed due to 1) Subdued sales over the past few months and 2) Pre buying of urea amid concern of imposition of FED in recent budget.
  • Similarly, on MoM basis, urea sales is likely to rebound sharply by 39%MoM mainly due to higher demand owing to seasonal impact (Kharif season).
  • Urea sales of Fauji Group to clock in at 269k tons versus sales of 259k tons during the same period last year (up 4%YoY). Similarly, EFERT is likely to witness sharp recovery in urea sales of 34%YoY to 208k tons, mainly led by low base impact.

A PHP Error was encountered

Severity: Notice

Message: Undefined variable: share_research

Filename: views/single.php

Line Number: 74

Backtrace:

File: /var/www/html/application/modules/Research/views/single.php
Line: 74
Function: _error_handler

File: /var/www/html/application/third_party/MX/Loader.php
Line: 351
Function: include

File: /var/www/html/application/third_party/MX/Loader.php
Line: 294
Function: _ci_load

File: /var/www/html/application/modules/Research/controllers/Research.php
Line: 135
Function: view

File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 294
Function: require_once

A PHP Error was encountered

Severity: Warning

Message: Invalid argument supplied for foreach()

Filename: views/single.php

Line Number: 74

Backtrace:

File: /var/www/html/application/modules/Research/views/single.php
Line: 74
Function: _error_handler

File: /var/www/html/application/third_party/MX/Loader.php
Line: 351
Function: include

File: /var/www/html/application/third_party/MX/Loader.php
Line: 294
Function: _ci_load

File: /var/www/html/application/modules/Research/controllers/Research.php
Line: 135
Function: view

File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 294
Function: require_once

Market Wrap: Banking on Bulls: KSE-100 Hits a New Milestone - By HMFS Research

Jul 4 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) sustained its upward trajectory in today’s session, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index surging to a fresh intra-day high of 132,130 before closing at 131,949, up by a robust 1,262 points (+0.97%). The rally was supported by sustained investor interest—particularly in the banking sector—as participants continued to rotate into fundamentally sound, undervalued plays amid a supportive macroeconomic backdrop. Trading activity remained strong, with the All-Share Index posting a healthy turnover of 731mn shares, while KSE-100 volumes came in at 199mn shares, indicating broad-based participation. Top volume leaders included, WTL (58mn), BML (36mn), and TREET (30mn). The banking sector emerged as the primary driver of index gains, supported by attractive dividend yields, and compelling P/B valuations. The recent softening in Pakistan’s sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads has further improved investor sentiment by lowering perceived external risk, catalyzing flows into equities. While the momentum remains firmly intact, the market’s proximity to psychological resistance levels suggests room for near-term consolidation, especially as investors may opt to lock in recent gains. However, the medium-term narrative remains constructive, underpinned by prospects of continued IMF engagement, fiscal reforms, and easing external account pressures. We continue to advise investors to remain selective and focus on sectors with resilient fundamentals and earnings visibility. In the current phase of the cycle, valuation discipline, liquidity considerations, and macro-driven event positioning will remain critical in navigating market dynamics.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index closed the session on a strong note, gaining 1,262 points to settle at 131,949. Broad-based buying was seen across key sectors, with Autos, banks, and Power leading the charge. Investor sentiment remained upbeat, supported by improved macros and anticipation of further monetary easing. Looking forward, we have a favorable view on the market in the near term, backed by favorable liquidity conditions, positive policy cues, and foreign interest returning to key sectors. However, intermittent consolidation cannot be ruled out as the index approaches resistance levels.
Fertilizers: Sales to recover in June-2025; albeit inventory level remains high - By JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • As per provisional figures, Urea off-take during Jun-2025 is expected to clock in at 580k tons, arriving at a growth of 20% YoY/ 39% MoM. Cumulatively, Urea off-take is likely to post a negative growth of 23% YoY during 1HCY25. On the other hand, DAP off-take is likely to fall 15% YoY during the month.
  • Company-wise, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) is expected to post Urea off-take of 269k tons in Jun-2025, up 4% YoY. This includes 51k tons of granular Urea. Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is likely to post growth 32% YoY, arriving at 205k tons. In terms of market share, EFERT Urea share improved by 3ppts YoY to 35%, while FFC’s share dipped 8ppts YoY during the month.
  • Urea inventory is expected to remain elevated at around 1.3mn tons by the end of 1HCY25. Assuming capacity utilization remains stable at current levels, allowance of export can be a key trigger in our view, helping to mitigate inventory buildup despite the anticipated increase in local sales during 2HCY25.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue - By JS Research

Jul 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index witnessed a volatile session to close at 130,687, up 343 points DoD. Volumes stood at 900mn shares compared to 1,026mn shares traded in the last session. The index is expected to revisit yesterday’s high of 131,325 with a break above targeting 132,134, which can extend to 133,412. However, any downside will find support in the range of 129,050-129,870 levels. The RSI and the MACD are heading up, supporting a positive outlook. We advise investors to 'Buy on dips', keeping stoploss below 128,616. The support and resistance levels are placed at 129,867 and 131,415, respectively.
Morning News: SBP reserves hit nearly 40-month high on multilateral, commercial loans - By HMFS Research

Jul 4 2025


HMFS Research


  • Pakistan’s central bank reserves hit around 40-month high this week, helped by multilateral and commercial loans that pushed the dollar stockpile to reach $14.51 billion as of June 30, 2025. The foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by $3.66 billion or 40.41% WoW to $12.73 billion during the week ended on June 27, 2025. The reserves held by commercial banks rose by $30.9m or 0.58% WoW to $5.36bn. Similarly, the country's total reserves increased by $3.69bn or 25.66% WoW to $18.09bn.
  • At the FfD4 conference in Spain, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to international partnerships and economic reforms for sustainable development. He held key bilateral meetings with global counterparts, including officials from the Netherlands, World Bank, IFAD, and ICC, discussing cooperation in trade, climate resilience, institutional capacity, and rural development. Highlights included updates on Pakistan’s IMF program, the upcoming National Green Taxonomy, and the endorsement of the World Bank’s 10-year Country Partnership Framework, reflecting Pakistan’s active engagement in advancing its reform and resilience agenda.
  • Banks across Pakistan have increased the fee for withdrawing cash from non-host ATMs—from Rs 23.44 to Rs 35 per transaction—effective from July 2025. Of this, Rs 28 goes to the ATM-owning bank to cover operational and maintenance costs, with Rs 7 retained by 1LINK, the interbank network. The move, justified by rising interbank transaction and equipment servicing costs, raises concerns for low-income and rural users, for whom frequent small withdrawals now carry a heavier burden amid inflation and economic strain.
Morning News: Forex reserves climb to $18bn as of June 27 - By Vector Research

Jul 4 2025


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves rose by $3.694 billion to $18.09 billion in the week ending June 27, the central bank said on Thursday, indicating a significant improvement in the country’s current account balance and the realisation of planned inflows. The forex reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by $3.66 billion to $12.73 billion in the reporting week due to receipt of the multilateral and commercial loans, the SBP said in the statement.
  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb advanced strategic partnerships during a series of high-level bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FFD4), held this week in Seville. Representing Pakistan at the UN-backed conference that ran from June 30 to July 3, Aurangzeb held discussions with counterparts and institutional leaders to bolster cooperation in trade, climate resilience, digital transformation and development finance.
  • Pakistan has adopted an 'open handed policy' to award multibillion-dollar mining contracts, by providing equal opportunities to global competitors including the United States (US), China and Russia. China and Russia have long been arch-rivals of the US. At present, Pakistan is simultaneously engaging with all three countries.
Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note - By IIS Research

Jul 3 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a positive note, marking a new all time high both intraday and at the close. While the index showed strength, it remained somewhat volatile throughout the session, with instances of profit taking observed as investors locked in gains after the recent rally. Trading volumes decreased to 280mn shares today as compared to 346mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 343 points to close at 130,687 level, up by 0.26% DoD. Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, Power Generation & Distribution, and Oil & Gas Marketing Companies sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 392 points to the index.                                     
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day - By JS Research

Jul 3 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index rose 342 points at day-end to close at 130,686, after hitting an intraday all-time high of 131,325. The bullish momentum, driven by strong institutional buying and optimism over earnings, particularly in the energy sector (OGDC, MARI, PPL), fueled early gains. Although profit-taking pared initial advances, the index stayed in the green. With positive macroeconomic indicators and sustained investor confidence, the market is expected to maintain its upward trajectory in the near term, though intermittent corrections remain likely.
Market Wrap:; Riding the Wave: PSX Holds Ground After Scaling New Heights - By HMFS Research

Jul 3 2025


HMFS Research


  • The equity market extended its bullish momentum, with the KSE-100 Index continuing its record-breaking streak, reaching a new intraday high of 131,325—up by 981 points. However, the momentum tapered in the latter half of the session, with the index holding in the green but ultimately closing at 130,687—recording a modest gain of 343 points. Investor confidence remained elevated, underpinned by improving macroeconomic indicators and renewed optimism following the State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign reserves surpassing IMF benchmarks. The rally was primarily supported by strong performance in the banking and energy sectors, both of which contributed significantly to the index's gains. Trading activity remained robust, with 280mn shares traded on the KSE-100 Index and 897mn shares exchanged across the broader market. Volume leaders included WTL (49mn), IMAGE (37mn), and BOP (35mn). Looking ahead, while the bullish momentum is expected to continue, the sharp rally may trigger short-term profit-taking as investors capitalize on recent gains. Nonetheless, improving economic fundamentals are expected to provide a cushion for market stability. Investors are advised to stay vigilant and focus on fundamentally strong stocks with long-term growth potential.
Economy: Tariff rationalization to bring in competitiveness - By AKD Research

Jul 3 2025


AKD Securities


  • Govt. has issued SROs pertaining to Additional Customs Duty (ACD) and Regulatory Duties (RDs), in line with National Tariff Policy 2025–30.
  • ACD has been revised to 0%, 2%, 4%, and 6% (previously 2%, 4%, 6%, and 7%), while RD has been removed on multiple PCT codes, with the maximum RD rate reduced from 90% to 50%.
  • Sector-wise, margins for auto assemblers are likely to normalize from recent highs, while chemical, steel, and textile spinning/weaving sectors would face margin pressures.
Fertilizer: Urea Sales Up 21%YoY in Jun’25 - By Sherman Research

Jul 2 2025


Sherman Securities


  • According to provisional data, urea sales during June’25 is expected to clock in at 582k tons (up 21%YoY). Despite weaker farm economics, the YoY increase in urea sales can be mainly attributed due to 1) Subdued sales over the past few months and 2) Pre buying of urea amid concern of imposition of FED in recent budget.
  • Similarly, on MoM basis, urea sales is likely to rebound sharply by 39%MoM mainly due to higher demand owing to seasonal impact (Kharif season).
  • Urea sales of Fauji Group to clock in at 269k tons versus sales of 259k tons during the same period last year (up 4%YoY). Similarly, EFERT is likely to witness sharp recovery in urea sales of 34%YoY to 208k tons, mainly led by low base impact.
Economy: June CPI Expected at 3.54%YoY - By Sherman Research

Jun 24 2025


Sherman Securities


  • We expect headline inflation in June’25 to be reported at 3.54%YoY, slightly higher than 3.45%YoY recorded in the previous month. This increase is primarily attributed to a pickup in energy and food prices and a low base effect from the previous year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to increase by 0.5%MoM in June’25.
  • Despite a decrease in the heavy-weighted wheat flour (down 14.7%YoY) the food sector is expected to grow by 3.6%YoY mainly due to increase in price of Sugar (up 26.8%YoY), Eggs (up 33%YoY), Beef (up 13.8%YoY) and Fresh Milk (up 9%YoY).
  • On a MoM basis, the food index is expected to increase by 0.53%, driven by increasing prices of Sugar and Eggs by 3.7%MoM and 17.4%MoM respectively, however we expect a decline in prices of Tomatoes and Chicken by 30.7%MoM and 20.5%MoM respectively.
Energy: Levy on FO & Its Impact on Companies - By Sherman Research

Jun 23 2025


Sherman Securities


  • Under IMF’s program for Resilience and Sustainability Financing (RSF), government is expected to impose both Carbon Levy (CL) and Petroleum Levy (PL) on Furnace Oil (FO) from July 01, 2025 to curb excessive fossil fuel consumption and gather additional funds for green energy programs. This is the first time government will impose Levy of Rs79.5 per liter on FO including PL of Rs77 per liter and CL of Rs2.5 per liter. This will inflate price of FO by Rs85,000 per ton (57%) to around Rs235,000 per ton and may impact FO demand in Pakistan. It is to be noted that, if international oil prices stay above US$75 per barrel during rest of the ongoing month, FO price after this Levy may increase by 67% to Rs250,000 per ton.
  • Pakistan is likely to consume around 0.9mn tons (950mn liters) of FO during FY25 compared to 1.2mn tons during F24. Over the last 3 years (FY23-FY25), Pakistan’s FO consumption declined sharply by average 40% per annum. Interestingly, 10 years back Pakistan’s FO consumption was around 9.2mn tons as power sector was the major consumer since FO based electricity generation mix at that time was around 35%. Now Coal and LNG substituted FO as share of FO is now only 1.5% of the electricity generation mix. Local refineries produce around 2.5mn tons while annual export is 1.5mn tons. FO is a dyeing product used as bunker fuel for the ships and thus its global demand is limited.
Auto: SUV Sales Rebounded With 84%MoM Growth - By Sherman Research

Jun 13 2025


Sherman Securities


  • SUVs posted robust growth in sales with 2,638 units (up 84%MoM). This is the highest monthly sales numbers of the current year– barring one-off sales in January due to year end phenomenon.
  • Within SUVs, Tucson sales grew to 569 units compared to only 5 units last month. Havel sales also climbed by 70%MoM.
  • Company wise, highest sales was recorded by SAZEW ( Up 67%MoM) on back of elevated Havel sales. In 11MFY25, SAZEW lead the industry with the most sales growth (Up 2.3xYoY)
Pakistan Economy: FEDERAL BUDGET FY26, Key Budgetary Measures - By Sherman Research

Jun 11 2025


Sherman Securities


  • We view the FY26 budget as Positive for the stock market, given that the announced targets appear realistic and largely aligned with IMF expectations.
  • With the budget now behind us, investor attention will shift toward macroeconomic indicators—particularly inflation trends and the external account. In this context, the trajectory of international oil prices will play a key role during FY26.
  • We do not foresee any material changes to our corporate earnings estimates, as key heavyweight sectors such as Energy and Banks remain largely insulated from new taxation measures. Accordingly, we maintain our FY26 earnings growth projection at 12%.
Refinery: GRMs Sharply Recovering - By Sherman Research

Jun 4 2025


Sherman Securities


  • After plunging to lowest level of US$4.5 per barrel in April 25, Gross Refining Margins (GRMs) of local refineries significantly recovered to US$9.3 per barrel during ongoing month of June. This is positive for local refineries as their earnings are directly linked with changes in GRMs.
  • Just to recall, highest GRM was recorded at US$30 per barrel during July 2022 while average GRMs during last 5 years stood at US$7 per barrel.
  • GRM is the sum of the weighted average spread of products which a refinery is yielding on every barrel of crude it processes. Major products include Diesel (HSD), Gasoline (MS) and Furnace oil (FO).
Economy: May CPI Clocked in at 3.5%YoY - By Sherman Research

Jun 2 2025


Sherman Securities


  • CPI for May’2025 was recorded at 3.5%, the highest level recorded in CY25 so far, primarily driven by a sharp rise in the Food and Clothing indices.
  • The food index posted inflation of 3.5%YoY in May’25. This increase was mainly driven by a increase fall in the prices of essential food items such as Meat (up 11.8%YoY), Chicken (up 52%YoY), Milk fresh (up 11%YoY), and Fresh fruits (up 30%YoY).
  • On a MoM basis, CPI declined by 0.2%MoM primarily driven by housing index (down 1.2%MoM) aimed decline in electricity charges (down 7.02%MoM). The food index also fell by 0.2% MoM, largely due to continued decline in the prices of wheat, onions, and tomatoes.
Fertilizer: Urea Sales Up 5%YoY, Inventory at 8-Year High - By Sherman Research

Jun 2 2025


Sherman Securities


  • According to provisional data, urea sales during May’25 is expected to clock in at 418k tons (up 5%YoY). Despite weaker farm economics, the YoY increase in urea sales can be mainly attributed due to subdued sales over the past few months.
  • Similarly, on MoM basis, urea sales is likely to rebound sharply by 67%MoM mainly due to seasonal impact along with base impact due to canal protest in several parts of Sindh during the last month.
  • Urea sales of Fauji Group to clock in at 207k tons versus sales of 289k tons during the same period last year, down 28%YoY. On the flip side, EFERT is likely to witness sharp recovery in urea sales of 85%YoY to 142k tons, mainly led by low base impact.
Economy: Pakistan’s Trade Deficit Widens to 2–Year High - By Sherman Research

May 19 2025


Sherman Securities


  • A detailed breakdown of trade numbers released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) shows that, on a monthly basis, imports of goods posted growth of 17%MoM at US$5.6bn during April’25. The growth was primarily driven by imports in the Machinery and Petroleum group on a weighted average basis, while Food imports remained flat.
  • Wherein exports clocked in at US$2.1bn (down 18%MoM) mainly due to decrease in exports in the textile sector.
  • Thus, the monthly trade deficit widened to US$3.4bn (up 59%MoM) in Apr’25 highest since May’23. On cumulative basis, import bill was recorded at US$48.3bn (up 8%YoY) during 10MFY25 mainly due to higher imports of Machinery, Textile and Metals, while Petroleum imports declined. Thus, cumulative trade deficit clocked US$21.4bn (up 9%YoY) for 10MFY25.
Auto: Car Sales Expected to Remain Flat in April’25 -- By Sherman Research

May 7 2025


Sherman Securities


  • The sales of leading car assemblers registered with PAMA are expected to remain flat clocking at 8,970 units in April’25 (down 1%MoM).
  • The flat sales are driven by decline in sales of PSMC following price hikes on popular models. Additionally, INDU’s moderate sales aimed losing market share to rising competition from new players.
  • Indus Motors (INDU) expected to report sales of 3,259 units (up 4%MoM) during the month. This growth in sales is mainly due to higher sale of Yaris, Corolla and Hilux