Pakistan Cement: 4QFY25 Previews: Profitability to increase by 19% YoY - By Insight Research

Jul 15 2025


Insight Securities


  • We expect ISL cement universe to post a PAT of ~PKR15.8bn in 4QFY25 up by 19% YoY, mainly due to higher retention prices. While on QoQ, profitability is expected to decline by 28%, mainly due to decline in other income by 75% QoQ. Revenue is anticipated to increase by 13%/8% YoY/QoQ due to higher retention prices. Gross margins are expected to clock in at 32% in 4QFY25 vs. 29% in 4QFY24 and 31% in 3QFY25 due to decline in coal prices and grid rates. Finance cost is expected to decline by 54%/33% YoY/QoQ on account of decline in interest rates and debt levels. On company specific basis, we expect LUCK/DGKC/MLCF/FCCL/PIOC/ACPL to post EPS of PKR3.6/5.2/2.7/1.4/6.2/4.9 in 4QFY25, respectively. Alongside, we expect LUCK/DGKC/FCCL/PIOC/ACPL to announce dividend of PKR4.0/3.0/1.5/10.0/3.0 respectively.
  • During the quarter, local cement dispatches remained flat YoY, while QoQ dispatches are down 6%. Similarly, cement exports surged by 34%/56% YoY/QoQ to clock in at 2.7mn tons. To note, capacity utilization of the sector clocked in at 54% in 4QFY25 vs 50% in SPLY.
  • In 4QFY25, cement prices rose by 3% in both the northern and southern region. Notably, prices in the South have surged by 18% YoY vs. 11% increase in the North. To note, for the past 20 months, cement prices in the southern region were trading at a discount. However, they are now trading at a premium, in line with historical trend. Additionally, exports prices of clinker and cement have increased to ~US$37/ton and ~US$45/ton respectively, up from historic average of ~US$30/ton and ~US$40/ton due to global supply shortage primarily benefitting southern players. To note, RB coal prices averaged at US$92/ ton in 4QFY25 vs. US$116/ton in SPLY.

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Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle July 18, 2025 - By AHCML Research

Jul 18 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index surged to an all-time intraday high of 140,585.38 (+1,919.89 points) early in the session but ended the day slightly lower at 138,597.36, down 68.13 points (- 0.05%) due to profit-taking. Investor sentiment was initially buoyed by a significant improvement in Pakistan’s external account, as the current account recorded a surplus of USD 2.1 billion in FY25, a sharp reversal from a USD 2.07 billion deficit in FY24. This turnaround, coupled with strengthening forex reserves, boosted early optimism. Major laggards included SYS, MEBL, HUBC, NBP, and MARI, collectively pulling the index down by 354.88 points. PIBTL led the volumes chart with 53.11 million shares traded, while overall market volume stood at 609.44 million shares.
Market Wrap: Market round up: Jul 18 2025 - By Pearl Research

Jul 18 2025


Pearl Securities


  • The benchmark KSE-100 Index extended its upward trajectory during the week, climbing to new all-time highs on the back of sustained investor optimism. This momentum was primarily driven by strong corporate earnings expectations and continued strengthening of key macroeconomic indicators. The index concluded the week on a solid footing at 138,597 points, marking an impressive week -on-week gain of 4,298 points. Despite the upward momentum, market participation moderated slightly, with average daily all-share volumes declining by 20% WoW to 763 million shares, compared to 948 million shares in the preceding week. Investor sentiment during the week was shaped by a mix of macroeconomic and policy developments, including: 1) Pakistan posting a current account surplus for the first time in 14 years, 2) Moody’s highlighting concerns over Pakistan’s missed tax target amid ongoing trade discussions with the U.S., 3) Pakistan’s substantial external debt obligations of over USD 23 billion due in FY26, 4) Positive growth in LSM for May, though the sector remained in contraction for FY25, 5) Another upward revision in domestic petroleum prices driven by the global crude oil rally, and 6) An increase in SBP’s foreign exchange reserves to USD 14.53 billion. Going forward, we expect the benchmark KSE-100 index to move both ways, and we suggest investors adopt the “Buy on Dip” strategy in the upcoming sessions.
Market Wrap: Highlights of the day July 18, 2025 - By JS Research

Jul 18 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The benchmark KSE-100 Index closed flat at day-end, closing at 138,597 points. Investors booked profits following a record-breaking rally, as the index touched an intraday high of 140,585.38 points. Sentiment remained buoyant on expectations of strong corporate earnings and potential monetary easing, supported by the finance minister’s dovish comments. Looking ahead, market momentum is likely to persist through earnings season, though intermittent profittaking may emerge as valuations stretch and investors await clarity on the State Bank's next policy move.
Economy: Mutual Fund Report June 2025 - By Spectrum Research

Jul 18 2025


Spectrum Securities


  • Total AUMs of AMCs decreased 2.3% to Rs 3,397 in June from Rs 3,781bn in May. Al-Meezan remained the largest AMC at Rs 522bn (-6.6%), NBP funds at second place with Rs 464bn assets (-2.5%) and MCB Investment at 3rd with Rs 398bn (+5.3%).
  • Highest Increase in AUMs was recorded by Lucky Investment +11.9%, Atlas AMC +10.5%.
  • Declines in AUMs was recorded by Lakson -7.6%, ABL -7.5%, HBL -6.8%.
Fertilizer: 2QCY25 Results Preview - By Sherman Research

Jul 18 2025


Sherman Securities


  • With result season around the corner, we present earning estimate of Fertilizer sector for 2QCY25. We expect Fertilizer sector earnings to improve by 3%YoY mainly led by rise in Urea sales (up 3%YoY) & DAP sales (up 19%YoY). On sequential basis, earnings are expected to rebound sharply by 57%, thanks to higher urea offtakes (up 14%QoQ) and DAP sales (up 2xQoQ) mainly due to seasonal impact.
  • Fauji Fertilizer (FFC) is expected to post unconsolidated earnings of Rs18.7bn (EPS Rs13.2) in 2QCY25 as compared to Rs15.6bn (Diluted EPS Rs10.9) during the same period last year, up by 21%YoY. The increase in profitability is mainly led by higher contribution from DAP business due to merger with FFBL. We expect gross margin to arrive at 37% versus 54% during the same period last year. The decline in margins is mainly due to higher sales mix of DAP which carries lower margins.
  • On sequential basis, earnings are expected to improve sharply (up 41%QoQ) on the back of higher Urea sales (up 9%QoQ) & DAP sales (up 2.2xQoQ).
Morning News: Oil settles down; build in US fuel inventories offsets signs demand growing - By WE Research

Jul 18 2025



  • Oil prices dipped slightly on Wednesday as rising U.S. fuel inventories and economic concerns tied to U.S. tariffs outweighed signs of stronger global demand. Brent crude settled at $68.52 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate at $66.38. U.S. gasoline and distillate stocks saw larger-than-expected builds, while crude inventories dropped more than forecast. Analysts noted disappointment over weakening gasoline demand during peak driving season. Meanwhile, global economic outlooks improved, with OPEC citing strength in China, India, and Brazil. Chinese refiners are boosting output, and Iraqi oil production has been disrupted by drone attacks. Tariff tensions and speculation over interest rate cuts are adding uncertainty to the market.
  • The European Union and Pakistan reaffirmed their commitment to the 2019 Strategic Engagement Plan (SEP) during the 10th Political Dialogue held on July 17 in Brussels, aiming to deepen cooperation across all SEP areas. Both sides pledged continued collaboration under the GSP+ framework and highlighted progress in migration cooperation, planning a third Comprehensive Migration and Mobility Dialogue in 2025. They discussed regional and global issues, including Ukraine, Jammu and Kashmir, and Gaza, stressing peaceful conflict resolution, respect for international law, and support for a two-state solution in Palestine. Security cooperation, including counter-terrorism and counter-narcotics, was emphasized. The two parties agreed to hold the 7th Strategic Dialogue in 2025 and the next Political Dialogue in 2026 in Islamabad.
  • A World Bank delegation led by Husam Mohamed Beides, Practice Manager for Energy in the MENAAP region, will visit Pakistan from July 20–26, 2025, marking the country's recent transition into the MENAAP portfolio. The visit aims to introduce the team to local energy sector stakeholders and review the World Bank’s ongoing energy projects. A second World Bank team will be in Pakistan from July 21– 29, 2025, to prepare for Phase 1 of the Best-Pak program, which focuses on enhancing energy security through the installation of STATCOM technology by the National Grid Company (formerly NTDC). This initiative, the first large-scale STATCOM deployment in Pakistan, aims to improve voltage stability, enable reliable grid operations, and support renewable energy integration. The mission will consult with key stakeholders including ISMO, the Ministry of Energy, and the Ministry of Economic Affairs.
Morning News; EU, Pakistan reaffirm commitment to implement ‘Strategic Engagement Plan - By IIIS Research

Jul 18 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The European Union (EU) and Pakistan reaffirmed their commitment to the implementation of Strategic Engagement Plan (SEP) signed in 2019. Both sides aim at further deepening cooperation in all areas covered under the SEP. The two sides also reiterated their resolve to continue close engagement under the GSP+ framework.
  • A World Bank team comprising Husam Mohamed Beides, Practice Manager for Energy, World Bank Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAAP) Region, will be visiting Pakistan from July 20–26, 2025. According to sources, Pakistan’s Country Management Unit has moved to MENAAP region from July 1, 2025 and this would be introductory meeting with the officials from the sector, understanding Bank’s ongoing energy sector portfolio and supporting its further progress.
  • Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan have signed the Trilateral Framework Agreement on the Joint Feasibility Study for the Naibabad–Kharlachi rail link under the Uzbek–Afghan–Pak (UAP) Railway Corridor in Kabul on Thursday. Deputy Prime and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar witnessed the signing ceremony of UAP Rail Project along with Afghan and Uzbek foreign ministers.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 at its record level - By JS Research

Jul 18 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Bullish momentum continued as the KSE-100 index closed at 138,666, up 2,286 points DoD. Volumes stood at 780mn shares compared to 706mn shares traded in the previous session. If the gain continued, the next target will be at 140,105 which may be extended to 141,686. However, any downside will find support in the range of 137,250-138,100 levels as a fall below can initiate a corrective trend. The RSI and the MACD are on a rising trend, supporting a positive view. We advise investors to ‘Buy on dips’, with risk defined below 136,675. The support and resistance are placed at 137,245 and 139,514, respectively.
Morning News: SBP reserves rise to $14.53bn in a week - By HMFS Research

Jul 18 2025


HMFS Research


  • The foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by $23.4 million or 0.16% WoW to $14.53 billion during the week ended on July 11, 2025. On the other hand, the country's total reserves decreased by $71.6m or 0.36% WoW to $19.96bn. The reserves held by commercial banks fell by $95m or 1.72% WoW to $5.43bn. In the current fiscal year, SBP-held reserves have increased by $5.46bn or 60.25%.
  • Automobile financing in Pakistan has increased to Rs276.61bn in June 2025, witnessing a rise of 1.98% MoM compared to Rs271.24bn recorded in May 2025, according to the latest data released by the central bank. On a year on year basis, car financing increased by 20%, as in the same period last year, the figure for financing was reported at Rs230.5bn.
  • The Cabinet Committee on Regulatory Reforms (CCoRR), chaired by the Federal Minister for Investment concluded a series of three meetings held to review the Regulatory Reform Package-01, prepared and submitted by the Board of Investment (BOI). These meetings marked a key milestone in the government’s efforts to simplify and modernise Pakistan’s regulatory landscape in line with the directives of the prime minister. The reform package, formulated by BOI’s reform team, comprised of 136 targeted proposals aimed at reducing compliance burden, eliminating outdated procedures, and enhancing the ease of doing business.
Oil Marketing Companies: OMC sector earnings to surge 41%YoY in 4QFY25E - By AKD Research

Jul 17 2025


AKD Securities


  • OMC players under our AKD coverage universe i.e. PSO and APL are anticipated to report a combined NPAT increase of 41%YoY/16%QoQ during 4QFY25E.
  • For the full year, earnings for the AKD OMC universe are anticipated to grow by a modest 3%YoY in FY25E.
  • Our coverage universe is expected to record a 31%YoY decline in finance costs during 4QFY25E, where-in full year finance costs are also expected to shrink by 32%YoY.
Pakistan Cement: 4QFY25 Previews: Profitability to increase by 19% YoY - By Insight Research

Jul 15 2025


Insight Securities


  • We expect ISL cement universe to post a PAT of ~PKR15.8bn in 4QFY25 up by 19% YoY, mainly due to higher retention prices. While on QoQ, profitability is expected to decline by 28%, mainly due to decline in other income by 75% QoQ. Revenue is anticipated to increase by 13%/8% YoY/QoQ due to higher retention prices. Gross margins are expected to clock in at 32% in 4QFY25 vs. 29% in 4QFY24 and 31% in 3QFY25 due to decline in coal prices and grid rates. Finance cost is expected to decline by 54%/33% YoY/QoQ on account of decline in interest rates and debt levels. On company specific basis, we expect LUCK/DGKC/MLCF/FCCL/PIOC/ACPL to post EPS of PKR3.6/5.2/2.7/1.4/6.2/4.9 in 4QFY25, respectively. Alongside, we expect LUCK/DGKC/FCCL/PIOC/ACPL to announce dividend of PKR4.0/3.0/1.5/10.0/3.0 respectively.
  • During the quarter, local cement dispatches remained flat YoY, while QoQ dispatches are down 6%. Similarly, cement exports surged by 34%/56% YoY/QoQ to clock in at 2.7mn tons. To note, capacity utilization of the sector clocked in at 54% in 4QFY25 vs 50% in SPLY.
  • In 4QFY25, cement prices rose by 3% in both the northern and southern region. Notably, prices in the South have surged by 18% YoY vs. 11% increase in the North. To note, for the past 20 months, cement prices in the southern region were trading at a discount. However, they are now trading at a premium, in line with historical trend. Additionally, exports prices of clinker and cement have increased to ~US$37/ton and ~US$45/ton respectively, up from historic average of ~US$30/ton and ~US$40/ton due to global supply shortage primarily benefitting southern players. To note, RB coal prices averaged at US$92/ ton in 4QFY25 vs. US$116/ton in SPLY.
United Bank (UBL): 1QCY25 EPS clocked in at PKR28.8 – Above expectation - By Insight Research

Apr 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • UBL has announced its 1QCY25 result, wherein it has posted consolidated PAT of PKR36.1bn (EPS: PKR28.8) vs. PAT of PKR16.1bn (EPS: PKR12.9) in SPLY. The result is above our expectation due to higher than estimated NII and reversal in provisioning expense.
  • Net interest income clocked in at PKR84.2bn, up by 200%/24% YoY/QoQ. The increase is attributable to favorable pricing of investment book aided by healthy volumetric growth and higher share of zero cost deposits.
  • Non markup income declined by 21%/38% YoY/QoQ despite a healthy increase of 26%/90% YoY/QoQ in fee income. The decline is primarily driven by elevated gain on securities in preceding quarters.
Pakistan Economy: Power tariff got slashed - By Insight Research

Apr 4 2025


Insight Securities


  • In a recent development, Prime Minister has announced a reduction in electricity tariffs by PKR7.41/unit for residential consumers and PKR7.59/unit for industrial users. This long-awaited relief had been widely anticipated in recent months, as rising administered energy prices were significantly eroding consumer purchasing power and were negatively impacting the overall economic activity. According to government sources, the IMF has endorsed this plan.
  • To address the issue, the government initiated measures such as revising/terminating contracts with IPPs and increasing the rate of PDL on petroleum products by PKR10/ltr last month, to finance tariff differential subsidy.
  • The primary contributors to the PKR7/unit tariff reduction includes termination of Power Purchase Agreements with certain IPPs along with renegotiation regarding hybrid take and pay model with others. Furthermore, the government plans to utilize the incremental revenue from the recent PKR10/ltr hike in PDL to fund Tariff Differential Subsidy. Moreover, Quarterly Tariff Adjustment of ~PKR1.9/unit, effective from Apr’25, along with expected fuel cost adjustments, will further support the government in implementing the announced relief of ~PKR7/unit.
Nishat Chunian Limited (NCL): 2QFY24 EPS clocked in at PKR0.96 – Below expectation - By Insight Research

Feb 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • NCL has announced its 2QFY25 result, wherein the company has posted consolidated PAT of PKR231mn (EPS: PKR0.96) vs. LAT of PKR911mn (LPS: PKR3.8) in SPLY. The result is below our expectation due to higherthan-expected tax expense.
  • In 2QFY25, company’s revenue clocked in at PKR20.7bn (US$74.2mn) compared to PKR20.1bn (US$71.0mn) in SPLY, up by ~3% YoY. The increase in topline is possibly attributable to higher volumetric sales. However, same is down by ~11% on QoQ basis.
  • Gross margins clocked in at ~11% depicting an increase of ~2.3ppts QoQ, possibly due to operational efficiency and lower cotton prices.
Oil & Gas Exploration: 2QFY25 Previews: Profitability to decrease by 41% YoY - By Insight Research

Jan 22 2025


Insight Securities


  • We preview ISL E&P universe 2QFY25 results, where we estimate sector’s profitability to decrease by 41% YoY to clock in at ~PKR82bn. The decrease is mainly attributable to lower oil prices coupled with decline in hydrocarbon production. Similarly, on QoQ basis, profits are expected to decline by 5% due to aforementioned reason coupled with decline in other income.
  • Revenue of our universe is expected to decrease by 12%/6% YoY/QoQ mainly due to decline in hydrocarbon. Other income is expected to increase by 27% YoY due to absence of exchange loss amid relatively stable currency. The same is down by 37% QoQ mainly due to lower interest income. Company wise, we estimate 2QFY25 EPS for OGDC/PPL/MARI/ POL at PKR9.5/7.7/11.6/23.8, respectively. We expect OGDC/ PPL/MARI/POL to announce a DPS of PKR3.8/2.0/11.0/15.0.
  • We expect company to post earnings of PKR9.5/sh in 2QFY25, down by 45% YoY due to i) one-off tax adjustment, ii) lower oil prices, and iii) lower hydrocarbon production. Topline is expected to decrease by 15%/8% YoY/QoQ due to aforementioned reason. Other income is expected to increase by 37% YoY due to absence of FX losses while same is down by 41% QoQ. We expect company to announce cash dividend of PKR3.8/sh.