Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Surges amidst good volumes – By AKD Research

Oct 22 2025

AKD Securities

• The Index started the session on a strong bullish trajectory and maintained its upward momentum throughout the day. It reached an intra day high of 2,171 points before settling with notable gains of 1,104 points at 167,347. Market activity improved significantly, with trading volumes increasing by 43% compared to the previous session. Over the last 50 trading sessions, the index has recorded 22 positive and 28 negative closings, resulting in a net of 6 negative closings. KSE100 opened with an upside gap on normal volume, suggesting the potential formation of a Runaway Gap, typically indicating trend continuation. Price movement during the session remained limited, as reflected by the narrow difference between opening and closing levels. The daily Parabolic SAR (Stop & Reverse) indicator currently appears below the index, reinforcing the ongoing bullish sentiment.

• From a technical standpoint, immediate support lies at 167,000, and a breakdown below this level could trigger further weakness towards 166,400 and 165,500. On the upside, resistance is expected around 167,800, followed by 168,500 and 168,900. Traders are advised to trade with a cautious approach and accumulate positions on weakness.

Morning News: Stocks mostly flat but earnings a positive; gold drops 5% - By Shajar Research

Oct 22 2025

Shajar Capital

• Major stock indexes were mostly near flat on Tuesday, with upbeat results and forecasts from top U.S. companies providing some support, while gold prices dropped more than 5% as investors took profits after a recent rally. (Reuters)

• US President Donald Trump on Monday said he told Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that war with Pakistan must be avoided, highlighting that he has prevented multiple conflicts using diplomacy and trade leverage. (The News)

Morning News: Repatriation of profits jumps 86 percent in Q1 – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Oct 22 2025

Alpha Capital

• Repatriation of profits and dividends by the foreign investors sharply rose by 86 percent in the first quarter of this fiscal year (FY26) mainly due to improved earnings.

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that severe flooding in Pakistan during the third quarter of 2025 may have more adverse effects on growth, inflation, and the current account than currently estimated, although these impacts remain highly uncertain.

• The country’s business community has expressed concern following the announcement of uniform Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) of August 2025 across the country after inclusion of KE’s generation data.

Pakistan Market Wrap: Momentum Builds as Economic Stability Fuels Market Gains – By HMFS Research

Oct 21 2025

HMFS Research

• Bullish momentum carried through at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Tuesday, as the benchmark KSE-100 Index surged over 2,172 points during intraday trading amid renewed investor optimism. Buying interest was pronounced across key sectors including banks, fertilizers, and energy, buoyed by improving macro indicators and institutional participation. Sentiment was further lifted by the government’s successful Staff-Level Agreement (SLA) with the IMF, anticipation ahead of the ongoing results season, and news of the first privatization move — the sell-off of First Women Bank. The index eventually settled around the 167,346 level, closing up by nearly 1,103 points.

• Turnover remained robust, with volumes of ~1bn shares on the KSE-100 Index and ~1.81bn shares on the All-Share Index. Actively traded names included KEL (547mn), WTL (260mn), and BOP (128mn). Adding to the positive backdrop, Pakistan recorded a current account surplus of USD 110mn in September, reversing the previous month’s deficit of USD 325mn — a development that further reinforced confidence in external sector stability. We expect near-term momentum to persist as investors position ahead of major corporate earnings. That said, intermittent profit-taking cannot be ruled out after the recent rally. We advise clients to maintain exposure in fundamentally strong blue-chip names, while selectively realizing gains in overbought counters.

Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Oct 21 2025

Al Habib Capital Markets

• The KSE-100 Index extended its bullish momentum from the previous session, reaching an intraday high of 168,414.13 before settling at 167,346.83, up by 1,103.93 points (0.66%). Renewed investor confidence, driven by reduced geopolitical concerns, improved macroeconomic indicators, and sustained buying in key sectors such as commercial banks, fertilizers, and oil & gas exploration, supported the rally. On the economic front, the IMF noted on Tuesday that economic activity in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan has been “stronger than expected” this year. Top index incliners included, BAHL, FFC, MCB, OGDC & PPL, which collectively pulled the benchmark up by 830.55 points. KEL led volumes with 547.32 million shares; overall market turnover was 1,816.81 million shares.

National Foods Limited (NATF): FY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By AKD Research

Oct 21 2025

AKD Securities

• Company has two operating segments i.e. its core business and retail (cash and carry). The first encompasses NATF's traditional food and food-related products, while the latter centers on its acquisition of A1 Cash & Carry, a Canadian retail chain.

• In FY25, NATF reported consolidated earnings of PkR4.4bn (EPS: PkR14.9), against PkR2.8bn in FY24, up 58%YoY, primarily due to operational efficiencies created by the Faisalabad plant.

• Both the retail segment and the core business delivered growth, with company’s net sales increasing from PkR37bn to PkR45bn, up 19%YoY, while the retail segment also saw a 22%YoY increase in revenue.

National Foods Limited (NATF): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Oct 21 2025

• National Foods Limited (NATF) reported earnings per share of PKR 13.65 for FY25 (FY24: 5.44). Furthermore, in 4QFY25, the company reported earnings per share of PKR 1.40 (4QFY24: 1.23).

• Gross margins improved in 1QFY26 to 38% from average of 36% in FY25 primarily due to pricing factor and cost efficiencies associated with the Faisalabad plant. Management is confident that this margin is sustainable for the rest of FY26.

• In the overall portfolio mix, the Faisalabad plant contributes around 70%. While Karachi plant caters the southern part of the country and exports. A critical distribution hub has been set in Canada to serve customers and improve speed to the market.

Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Oct 21 2025

• Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL) reported loss per share of PKR 7.40 for FY25, compared to earnings per share of PKR 6.45 in FY24. Furthermore, in 1QFY26, the company reported earnings per share of PKR 1.61, compared to loss per share of PKR 3.73 in the same period last year (SPLY).

• During FY25, the company produced 796k tons of HSD and 300k tons of MS. Crude sourcing relied primarily on the Middle East roughly 70% from ADNOC, 20% from Aramco, and 10% local crude.

• Capacity utilization remained around 80–85%. Management highlighted that increasing utilization further would require running heavier crude, which would alter yields by increasing furnace oil production. Given the record MS and HSD output this year, management aims to improve efficiency and sustain higher production.

Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL): FY25 & 1QFY26 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Oct 21 2025

Taurus Securities

• The management of PRL held a corporate briefing session for the results of FY25 and 1QFY26– discussing the achievement of highest ever HSD production i.e. 796,261 MT in FY25 which had minimized overall losses. Further, the Company also achieved highest ever average daily production of MS amounting to 833 MT (7,447 barrels) during FY25. Regarding the update on ongoing Refinery Expansion & Upgrade project (REUP), the management told that EPC-F bids have been received and under evaluation (to be materialized in 1 year) and then major work will be started.

• In case of crude imports, the Company procured ~70%, 20% and 10% crude from Dubai, Aramco and local channel, respectively during 1QFY26. The current utilization stood at 80-85%. The Company procured a bulk of Bonny crude (Nigerian crude) during FY25 and in 1QFY26 as it is the reason for increase in HSD production due to low sulfur content in it.

• The current custom duties of crude, HSD and MS are 5%, 10% (2.5% in escrow account) and 10%, respectively. Overall crude average purchase price in FY25 was USD 75/bbl. Moreover, average freight/barrel in FY25 amounted to USD 1.3-1.5. Whereas, average operating/conversion cost in FY25 was USD 3.5/bbl. The management also shared average energy cost per barrel for FY25 which was USD 1/bbl. Total energy requirement per day was PKR 3.5-4 per Megawatt in FY25. As per the management, the average payment cycle from bill of lading to payment (suppliers) is 30 days. The management also highlighted that the IPPs didn’t purchase furnace oil (FO) from the refineries since the imposition of levies on FO.

Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT): Unfavourable dynamics weigh on earnings – By JS Research

Oct 21 2025

JS Global Capital

• Engro Fertilizers Ltd. (EFERT) has underperformed the KSE-100 index by 38% CYTD, mainly led by the unfavorable business dynamics that has adversely impacted the company throughout the year. To recall, the company posted earnings of Rs14bn, down 21% YoY led by the slowdown in sales volume, ongoing discounts, and higher financial charges.

• The company’s Urea inventory remained elevated, currently hovering around 550k tons owing to subdued local demand. This led to discount offerings in the range of Rs250-325/bag in the outgoing quarter which are still in place. The management in its recently held corporate briefing session apprised that industry’s inventory levels are likely to remain at 1mn tons by year end.