Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Dec 12 2025

Al Habib Capital Markets

• The KSE-100 Index staged a rebound session today, climbing to an intraday high of 170,052.87 before settling at all time high of 169,864.52, up by 1,289.83 points (0.77%). The upward momentum was fuelled by robust buying interest in fertilizer, commercial banks, Technology & Communication, oil and gas exploration companies, OMCs and Cement.

• On the economic front, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slapped 11 new structural benchmarks (SBs) on Pakistan, including developing and publishing a comprehensive medium-term (3 to 5 years) tax reform strategy, asset declarations of high-level federal civil servants and an action plan to mitigate corruption vulnerabilities in identified departments. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s central bank is expected to retain interest rates at 11% on Monday as analysts push back rate-cut forecasts to late 2026 after the IMF warned inflation risks persist and policy must stay “appropriately tight”. Among major contributors FFC, MCB, SYS, PPL, & HUBC, which collectively added 783.31 points to the benchmark index. HUMNL led volumes with 71.84 million shares; as overall market participation reached 873.03 million shares.

Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Dec 12 2025

Vector Securities

• Evening Note.

Pakistan Market Wrap: View from the Desk – By JS Research

Dec 12 2025

JS Global Capital

• PSX rebounded strongly as the KSE 100 Index surged 1,289 points to close at 169,864. The market opened soft but quickly recovered with steady upward momentum. Intraday high touched 170,052, showing strong buying interest. Overall volumes remained healthy at 873mn shares. Optimism returned after yesterday’s pullback, lifting major sectors. Buyers remained dominant throughout the session, driving sustained strength. Near-term outlook stays positive as the market attempts another breakout above170k.

Pakistan Market Wrap: Market Sustains Upward Trajectory Amid Renewed Inflows and Sectoral Developments – By HMFS Research

Dec 12 2025

HMFS Research

• The KSE-100 Index sustained its upward momentum today, with investors displaying renewed optimism on the back of IMF tranche inflows and the World Bank’s approval of a USD 400mn Urban Water and Resilience Project. Sentiment was further reinforced by positive movements in the energy chain, where payments of circular debt provided an additional uplift. Benchmark index touched an intra-day high of 1,478 points before settling at 169,865 points, reflecting a gain of 1,290 points. Market participation remained healthy, with 310mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and overall market volumes reaching 872mn shares.

• The most actively traded scrips included HUMNL (72mn), DSL (47mn), and WTL (41mn). On the policy front, the IMF has proposed 11 new structural benchmarks aimed at strengthening tax administration and reducing systemic leakages. As discussions continue, the clarity and trajectory of these reforms are likely to guide near-term market direction. Additionally, the MPC meeting scheduled for December 15 is expected to retain the policy rate at 11%. While a status quo stance aligns with market expectations, any deviation would shape the market accordingly. Overall, the improving macroeconomic backdrop and steady progress on policy measures are expected to keep the market supported. Investors are advised to maintain a vigilant stance and allocate capital toward fundamentally strong, long-term growth stories.

Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 169,865 up 1,290 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Dec 12 2025

Alpha Capital

• The equity market opened on a strong note and maintained its momentum throughout the session. The KSE-100 Index touched an intraday high of 170,053 and a low of 168,422, before settling at 169,865—up 1,290 points. Trading activity remained healthy, with 310 million shares changing hands and an estimated turnover of PKR 27 billion.

• Major contributors to the index’s gain included FFC (up 2.2%, adding 372 points), MCB (3%, 150 points), SYS (2.3%, 116 points), PPL (1.5%, 74 points), and HUBC (1.1%, 72 points). In terms of volumes, HUMNL and SSGC led the market with 71.8 million and 31.1 million shares traded, respectively.

Pakistan Economy: SBP Expected to keep Policy Rate unchanged at 11% – By AHCML Research

Dec 12 2025

Al Habib Capital Markets

• The State Bank of Pakistan's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is highly anticipated to maintain the policy rate unchanged at 11% in its upcoming meeting on December 15, 2025. This decision is driven by a complex mix of opposing economic forces. Significant upside risks to inflation from recent flood disruptions is the primary culprits. However, this is countered by strengthening external sector stability, evidenced by a strong forex reserves level along with massive foreign inflows from international financial institutions. Along with stable PKR and a rebound in industrial activity, with the LSM index growing at 4.08%YoY in 1QFY26. The MPC is expected to prioritize anchoring inflation expectations while leveraging the improved external position to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach, assessing the full impact of the flood-induced economic disruptions before making any policy rate cut.

Pakistan Economy: IMF: Further reforms needed – By Foundation Research

Dec 12 2025

Foundation Securities

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released the detailed report upon approval by its Executive Board of the 2nd review of the USD 7.0Bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and 1st review of the USD 1.3Bn Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The IMF report cited the governments’ strong program implementation as 6 of 7 quantitative criteria, 4 of 8 indicative targets, and most continuous and other structural benchmarks were met at end-June 2025. This has maintained stability and improved financing and external conditions.

• Pakistan’s 37-month EFF was approved on September 25, 2024, and aims to build resilience and enable sustainable growth. The program’s priorities remain centered on (i) entrenching macroeconomic stability through consistent implementation of sound macro policies, including rebuilding international reserve buffers and broadening the tax base; (ii) advancing reforms to strengthen competition and raise productivity and competitiveness; and (iii) reforming SOEs and improving public service provision, developing human and physical capital, and restoring energy sector viability.

Pakistan Economy: IMF releases staff report following review completion – By JS Research

Dec 12 2025

JS Global Capital

• A detailed Staff report has been released by IMF, following IMF Executive Board’s approval of the second review for the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Completion of the second EFF review has made available SDR 760mn (about US$1bn) bringing total disbursements to US$3.3bn (SDR 2,434mn) including US$200mn (SDR 154mn) under the RSF.

• IMF’s key priorities include cementing macroeconomic stability through consistent implementation of sound macro policies, including rebuilding international reserve buffers, and broadening the tax base implementation of reforms to boost market competition, enhance productivity & competitiveness, reform state-owned enterprises (SOEs), improve the delivery of public services and ensure the financial viability of the energy sector.

Automobile Assemblers: Nov’25: Passenger Vehicle Sales down 11%MoM – By Taurus Research

Dec 12 2025

Taurus Securities

• According to data from the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturing Association (PAMA), automobile sales in Nov’25 showed a de crease of 11%MoM in volumes for Passenger Cars, Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs), and Jeeps, totaling 15,420 units. Moreover, on a yearly basis sales experienced a 53% surge as compared to the SPLY. INDU’s market share marginally decreased by 1ppts MoM to 25%, while HCAR’s share improved 2ppts to 17%. Hyundai’s market share remained unchanged, whereas SAZEW’s share marginally decreased~ 1% to 7%. Meanwhile, PSMC’s market share remained stable at 43%. Moreover, 5MFY26 car sales rose 48%YoY to 74,835 units compared to 50,669 units sold last year.

• The yearly growth in sales during Nov’25 can be attributed to several factors, stable inflation, fuel prices, interest rates and dis counted car prices along with the release of new variants. Moreover, the MoM decrease in auto sales was led by decrease in volumes for PSMC, INDU, Hyundai, SAZEW, GAL and DFML and increase in GHNI reflecting strong competition between the companies in the market. This results in a mixed performance that limits overall growth. Going forward, easing inflation and declining interest rates are expected to support demand recovery, partially offsetting the negative impact of the recent fiscal measures.

Morning News: Pakistan receives $1.2bn from IMF, confirms SBP – By HMFS Research

Dec 12 2025

HMFS Research

• The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday said it has received about $1.2 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The amount would be reflected in SBP’s foreign exchange reserves for the week ending 12 December 2025, which are expected to be published next week, it added.

• The IMF has imposed 11 new structural benchmarks on Pakistan to strengthen fiscal management, governance, and sectoral reforms after noting that the country met 8 of 13 earlier targets. These new benchmarks require the government to finalize an FBR reform roadmap, publish a medium-term tax reform strategy, and enhance transparency by making senior civil servants’ asset declarations public and issuing an action plan to address corruption risks. Additional conditions include studies and action plans to lower remittance costs, boost FX inflows, and develop the local currency bond market. The IMF also demands progress on energy sector reforms by preparing HESCO and SEPCO for private sector participation, signing PSO agreements with major SOEs to improve transparency, and adopting a national sugar market liberalization policy.