Pakistan Market Wrap: Market Suffers a Sharp Setback Amid Geopolitical Strains – By HMFS Research

Oct 13 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index endured a turbulent session today, marked by a wave of aggressive selling pressure as investors reacted to escalating Afghan-Pakistan border tensions. The benchmark index plunged by as much as 5,420 points intraday, before paring some losses to close at 158,443, down 4,655 points from the previous session. Sentiment was further dampened by civil unrest in major cities, which intensified uncertainty and weakened investor confidence. The Banking, Cement, and Oil sectors bore the brunt of the market decline, reflecting widespread caution across key economic segments.
  • Trading activity mirrored the prevailing volatility, with 686mn shares changing hands on the KSE-100 index and 1.36bn shares traded across the broader market. KEL (197mn), BOP (97mn), and WTL (75mn) emerged as the day’s top volume leaders. Looking ahead, the market’s trajectory will depend largely on how swiftly political and border tensions ease. A rebound phase is anticipated once stability returns, with investors likely to re-enter the market on improving sentiment. However, further downside pressure cannot be ruled out in the near term as uncertainty lingers. That said, Pakistan’s underlying macroeconomic resilience and ongoing diplomatic efforts to restore calm at the border are expected to provide a cushion to the index. Investors are advised to remain vigilant, closely monitor developments, and capitalize on attractive valuations by accumulating fundamentally strong, long-term growth stocks during periods of weakness.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Momentum Builds as Economic Stability Fuels Market Gains – By HMFS Research

Oct 21 2025


HMFS Research


  • Bullish momentum carried through at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Tuesday, as the benchmark KSE-100 Index surged over 2,172 points during intraday trading amid renewed investor optimism. Buying interest was pronounced across key sectors including banks, fertilizers, and energy, buoyed by improving macro indicators and institutional participation. Sentiment was further lifted by the government’s successful Staff-Level Agreement (SLA) with the IMF, anticipation ahead of the ongoing results season, and news of the first privatization move — the sell-off of First Women Bank. The index eventually settled around the 167,346 level, closing up by nearly 1,103 points.
  • Turnover remained robust, with volumes of ~1bn shares on the KSE-100 Index and ~1.81bn shares on the All-Share Index. Actively traded names included KEL (547mn), WTL (260mn), and BOP (128mn). Adding to the positive backdrop, Pakistan recorded a current account surplus of USD 110mn in September, reversing the previous month’s deficit of USD 325mn — a development that further reinforced confidence in external sector stability. We expect near-term momentum to persist as investors position ahead of major corporate earnings. That said, intermittent profit-taking cannot be ruled out after the recent rally. We advise clients to maintain exposure in fundamentally strong blue-chip names, while selectively realizing gains in overbought counters.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Oct 21 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index extended its bullish momentum from the previous session, reaching an intraday high of 168,414.13 before settling at 167,346.83, up by 1,103.93 points (0.66%). Renewed investor confidence, driven by reduced geopolitical concerns, improved macroeconomic indicators, and sustained buying in key sectors such as commercial banks, fertilizers, and oil & gas exploration, supported the rally. On the economic front, the IMF noted on Tuesday that economic activity in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan has been “stronger than expected” this year. Top index incliners included, BAHL, FFC, MCB, OGDC & PPL, which collectively pulled the benchmark up by 830.55 points. KEL led volumes with 547.32 million shares; overall market turnover was 1,816.81 million shares.
National Foods Limited (NATF): FY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By AKD Research

Oct 21 2025


AKD Securities


  • Company has two operating segments i.e. its core business and retail (cash and carry). The first encompasses NATF's traditional food and food-related products, while the latter centers on its acquisition of A1 Cash & Carry, a Canadian retail chain.
  • In FY25, NATF reported consolidated earnings of PkR4.4bn (EPS: PkR14.9), against PkR2.8bn in FY24, up 58%YoY, primarily due to operational efficiencies created by the Faisalabad plant.
  • Both the retail segment and the core business delivered growth, with company’s net sales increasing from PkR37bn to PkR45bn, up 19%YoY, while the retail segment also saw a 22%YoY increase in revenue.
National Foods Limited (NATF): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Oct 21 2025



  • National Foods Limited (NATF) reported earnings per share of PKR 13.65 for FY25 (FY24: 5.44). Furthermore, in 4QFY25, the company reported earnings per share of PKR 1.40 (4QFY24: 1.23).
  • Gross margins improved in 1QFY26 to 38% from average of 36% in FY25 primarily due to pricing factor and cost efficiencies associated with the Faisalabad plant. Management is confident that this margin is sustainable for the rest of FY26.
  • In the overall portfolio mix, the Faisalabad plant contributes around 70%. While Karachi plant caters the southern part of the country and exports. A critical distribution hub has been set in Canada to serve customers and improve speed to the market.
Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Oct 21 2025



  • Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL) reported loss per share of PKR 7.40 for FY25, compared to earnings per share of PKR 6.45 in FY24. Furthermore, in 1QFY26, the company reported earnings per share of PKR 1.61, compared to loss per share of PKR 3.73 in the same period last year (SPLY).
  • During FY25, the company produced 796k tons of HSD and 300k tons of MS. Crude sourcing relied primarily on the Middle East roughly 70% from ADNOC, 20% from Aramco, and 10% local crude.
  • Capacity utilization remained around 80–85%. Management highlighted that increasing utilization further would require running heavier crude, which would alter yields by increasing furnace oil production. Given the record MS and HSD output this year, management aims to improve efficiency and sustain higher production.
Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL): FY25 & 1QFY26 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Oct 21 2025


Taurus Securities


  • The management of PRL held a corporate briefing session for the results of FY25 and 1QFY26– discussing the achievement of highest ever HSD production i.e. 796,261 MT in FY25 which had minimized overall losses. Further, the Company also achieved highest ever average daily production of MS amounting to 833 MT (7,447 barrels) during FY25. Regarding the update on ongoing Refinery Expansion & Upgrade project (REUP), the management told that EPC-F bids have been received and under evaluation (to be materialized in 1 year) and then major work will be started.
  • In case of crude imports, the Company procured ~70%, 20% and 10% crude from Dubai, Aramco and local channel, respectively during 1QFY26. The current utilization stood at 80-85%. The Company procured a bulk of Bonny crude (Nigerian crude) during FY25 and in 1QFY26 as it is the reason for increase in HSD production due to low sulfur content in it.
  • The current custom duties of crude, HSD and MS are 5%, 10% (2.5% in escrow account) and 10%, respectively. Overall crude average purchase price in FY25 was USD 75/bbl. Moreover, average freight/barrel in FY25 amounted to USD 1.3-1.5. Whereas, average operating/conversion cost in FY25 was USD 3.5/bbl. The management also shared average energy cost per barrel for FY25 which was USD 1/bbl. Total energy requirement per day was PKR 3.5-4 per Megawatt in FY25. As per the management, the average payment cycle from bill of lading to payment (suppliers) is 30 days. The management also highlighted that the IPPs didn’t purchase furnace oil (FO) from the refineries since the imposition of levies on FO.
Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT): Unfavourable dynamics weigh on earnings – By JS Research

Oct 21 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Engro Fertilizers Ltd. (EFERT) has underperformed the KSE-100 index by 38% CYTD, mainly led by the unfavorable business dynamics that has adversely impacted the company throughout the year. To recall, the company posted earnings of Rs14bn, down 21% YoY led by the slowdown in sales volume, ongoing discounts, and higher financial charges.
  • The company’s Urea inventory remained elevated, currently hovering around 550k tons owing to subdued local demand. This led to discount offerings in the range of Rs250-325/bag in the outgoing quarter which are still in place. The management in its recently held corporate briefing session apprised that industry’s inventory levels are likely to remain at 1mn tons by year end.
Pakistan Economy: Sep’25 Balance of Payments (BOP) – By Taurus Research

Oct 21 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Current Account (CA) for Sep’25 arrived in at a surplus of USD 110Mn, as against a deficit of USD 325Mn in Aug’25. Cumulatively, 1QFY26 CAD stood at USD 594Mn, up 18% over the SPLY. Improved performance of CA in Sep’25 can be attributed to: i) 4% MoM decrease in the trade deficit; and ii) 57%MoM decrease in the services deficit, respectively. Overall, balance on goods & ser vices fell 13% on a sequential basis, pushing the CA into a sur plus, after two consecutive months of CA deficit.
  • During the month, goods exports were up 5%MoM mainly driven by the 13%MoM surge in textile exports, amounting to USD 1.6Bn. Wherein, the major contributors were Knitwear, Bedwear and Ready-made Garments, respectively. Food exports were up 7%MoM; Tobacco being the biggest contributor to the growth.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Faces a bullish trading session – By AKD Research

Oct 21 2025


AKD Securities


  • The index started the session on a strong bullish note and sustained its upward momentum throughout the day. It recorded an intraday high of 2,615 points before closing with substantial gains of 2,437 points at 166,243. Market participation strengthened, as trading volumes rose by 41% compared to the previous session. Currently, KSE-100 stands 28.5% above its 200-period moving average, indicating a firm uptrend. Volatility remains significantly higher than the 10-period average, though there is a fair likelihood of it easing and the Index stabilizing in the near term. Volume indicators suggest balanced inflows and outflows (neutral), while trend forecasting oscillators continue to signal a bullish outlook.
  • From a technical standpoint, immediate support lies at 165,800, and a breakdown below this level could trigger further weakness towards 165,300 and 164,500. On the upside, resistance is expected around 167,100, followed by 167,800 and 168,500. Traders are advised to trade with a cautious approach and accumulate positions on weakness.
Morning News: PRAL, PSW blamed for big import data gap – By AHCML Research

Oct 21 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Ministry of Commerce and the PBS informed the National Assembly Standing Committee on Commerce on Monday that two entities under the FBR. Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL) and PSW were responsible for a discrepancy of USD11 billion in import data reported last year.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday directed authorities to expedite the formal registration of cottage industries and Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), as part of a wider push to revitalize the industrial sector and improve access to finance.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Momentum Builds as Economic Stability Fuels Market Gains – By HMFS Research

Oct 21 2025


HMFS Research


  • Bullish momentum carried through at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Tuesday, as the benchmark KSE-100 Index surged over 2,172 points during intraday trading amid renewed investor optimism. Buying interest was pronounced across key sectors including banks, fertilizers, and energy, buoyed by improving macro indicators and institutional participation. Sentiment was further lifted by the government’s successful Staff-Level Agreement (SLA) with the IMF, anticipation ahead of the ongoing results season, and news of the first privatization move — the sell-off of First Women Bank. The index eventually settled around the 167,346 level, closing up by nearly 1,103 points.
  • Turnover remained robust, with volumes of ~1bn shares on the KSE-100 Index and ~1.81bn shares on the All-Share Index. Actively traded names included KEL (547mn), WTL (260mn), and BOP (128mn). Adding to the positive backdrop, Pakistan recorded a current account surplus of USD 110mn in September, reversing the previous month’s deficit of USD 325mn — a development that further reinforced confidence in external sector stability. We expect near-term momentum to persist as investors position ahead of major corporate earnings. That said, intermittent profit-taking cannot be ruled out after the recent rally. We advise clients to maintain exposure in fundamentally strong blue-chip names, while selectively realizing gains in overbought counters.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Volatility Persists: KSE-100 Slips 1,300 Points – By HMFS Research

Oct 17 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market remained volatile today, trading largely in the red as sentiment oscillated between optimism and caution. The downside was primarily driven by escalating Pakistan–Afghanistan geopolitical tensions, which unsettled investors and triggered broad-based profit-taking. Further pressure emerged after Finance Minister highlighted that recent floods affecting vast agricultural areas could weigh on economic growth this year, amplifying concerns over near-term fundamentals. Consequently, the KSE-100 Index extended its decline, closing 639 points lower at 163,806 level, marking a sharp correction on the last trading session.
  • The KSE-100 index recorded 500mn shares traded, while overall market volumes surged to 1.98bn shares. WTL (891mn), KEL (263mn), and BOP (84mn) emerged as the day’s top volume leaders. Looking ahead, market fundamentals remain robust, underpinned by improving macroeconomic indicators, the anticipated IMF inflow, and ongoing bilateral engagements with key partners. The onset of the quarterly results season is also expected to provide fresh upward momentum to the index. While intermittent volatility and profit-taking may emerge—particularly if geopolitical tensions intensify—the overall sentiment remains constructive. Investors are advised to maintain a balanced and fundamentals-driven approach, focusing on companies with resilient earnings and sustainable growth prospects, while staying mindful of short-term market shifts.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 Wavers Amid Profit-Taking and Volatility – By HMFS Research

Oct 16 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile trading session, oscillating between optimism and caution as investors weighed short-term gains against the broader economic outlook. The benchmark opened on a positive note, climbing 1,179 points intraday, driven by renewed optimism over the anticipated USD 1.2bn IMF tranche disbursement expected later this week. However, the bullish momentum faded as investors chose to book profits at higher levels, pulling the market into negative territory by the session’s close. The index ultimately settled at 164,445, down 1,242 points from the previous close. The Fertilizer and Technology sectors were the key laggards, exerting downward pressure on the benchmark.
  • Despite the correction, trading activity remained exceptionally strong, reflecting sustained investor engagement. The KSE-100 index recorded 1.39bn shares traded, while overall market volumes surged to 3.08bn shares, marking one of the highest turnover sessions in PSX history. KEL (1.02bn), WTL (953.71mn), and TELE (99.87mn) emerged as the day’s top volume leaders. Looking ahead, market fundamentals remain intact, supported by positive macroeconomic developments, including the expected IMF inflow and ongoing bilateral discussions with key allies. While intermittent volatility and short-term profit taking phases may persist, the underlying sentiment stays constructive. Investors are advised to adopt a balanced approach, focusing on fundamentally sound stocks with long-term growth potential while remaining attentive to near-term market dynamics.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Bulls Reclaim the Bourse as Calm Returns – By HMFS Research

Oct 14 2025


HMFS Research


  • After days of bearish sessions, the KSE-100 index witnessed a resounding rebound, igniting renewed optimism across the Pakistan Stock Exchange. As border tensions eased and civil conditions stabilized, investors rushed toward value buying, capitalizing on the attractive valuations created by the previous session’s dip. The return of calm and confidence spurred a buying spree, lifting the benchmark by as much as 7,423 points intraday, before closing at 165,476, marking an impressive 7,033-point gain from the previous close. The Cement and Banking sectors spearheaded today’s bullish momentum, benefiting from improved economic sentiment.
  • Further fuelling the rally were reports of the government’s ongoing efforts to finalize the IMF agreement, with markets anticipating a constructive review outcome and subsequent tranche disbursement — a development viewed as a major stabilizing catalyst for the economy. Trading activity remained vibrant, with 587mn shares changing hands on the KSE-100 index and 1.18bn shares traded across the broader market. BOP (101mn), PTC (80mn), and PACE (75mn) emerged as the top volume leaders, reflecting broad-based investor participation. Looking ahead, the restoration of border calm and improving macroeconomic landscape are expected to sustain investor confidence and maintain upward momentum. While short-term volatility and range-bound movement may follow today’s sharp gains, the market’s medium-term outlook remains constructively positive. Investors are advised to stay attuned to economic developments and continue accumulating fundamentally strong stocks with long-term growth potential.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Market Suffers a Sharp Setback Amid Geopolitical Strains – By HMFS Research

Oct 13 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index endured a turbulent session today, marked by a wave of aggressive selling pressure as investors reacted to escalating Afghan-Pakistan border tensions. The benchmark index plunged by as much as 5,420 points intraday, before paring some losses to close at 158,443, down 4,655 points from the previous session. Sentiment was further dampened by civil unrest in major cities, which intensified uncertainty and weakened investor confidence. The Banking, Cement, and Oil sectors bore the brunt of the market decline, reflecting widespread caution across key economic segments.
  • Trading activity mirrored the prevailing volatility, with 686mn shares changing hands on the KSE-100 index and 1.36bn shares traded across the broader market. KEL (197mn), BOP (97mn), and WTL (75mn) emerged as the day’s top volume leaders. Looking ahead, the market’s trajectory will depend largely on how swiftly political and border tensions ease. A rebound phase is anticipated once stability returns, with investors likely to re-enter the market on improving sentiment. However, further downside pressure cannot be ruled out in the near term as uncertainty lingers. That said, Pakistan’s underlying macroeconomic resilience and ongoing diplomatic efforts to restore calm at the border are expected to provide a cushion to the index. Investors are advised to remain vigilant, closely monitor developments, and capitalize on attractive valuations by accumulating fundamentally strong, long-term growth stocks during periods of weakness.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Caution Reigns as Volatility Tightens Its Grip on the PSX – By HMFS Research

Oct 8 2025


HMFS Research


  • Volatility from yesterday’s session carried into today with renewed intensity, as the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) endured another turbulent session. The benchmark KSE-100 Index oscillated sharply in both directions before succumbing to selling pressure, closing 907 points lower at 165,266.74. Intraday, the index slipped as much as 1,063.9 points amid persistent profit-taking. Weakness was most pronounced in the banking, fertilizer, and cement sectors, reflecting broader investor unease.
  • Sentiment turned cautious after the World Bank revised Pakistan’s GDP growth forecast downward by 50bps to 2.6% for FY26 (from 3.1% in June 2025), dampening hopes of a near-term recovery. Albeit, market activity remained robust, with volumes on the KSE-100 and All-Share indices standing at 555mn and 1.27bn shares, respectively. PTC (114mn), BOP (88mn), and KEL (87mn) emerged as the most actively traded scrips during the session. Today’s choppy performance underscores investors’ growing sensitivity to macro headwinds and global cues, particularly as growth expectations soften. Going forward, volatility is likely to persist amid shifting sentiment around the IMF review and global oil dynamics. We advise investors to maintain a selective approach, focusing on fundamentally strong, dividend-yielding blue chips, while avoiding leveraged positions until market direction becomes clearer.
Pakistan Market Wrap: PSX Retreats from Highs Amid IMF Caution and Sectoral Pullback – By HMFS Research

Oct 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • After a brief spell of optimism, the Pakistan Stock Exchange succumbed to profit taking on Tuesday, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index plunging over 1,755 points intraday before closing at 166,173.7, down 1,578.7 points (-0.94%). The sell-off was broad-based, led by commercial banks, cement, and power sectors, as investors opted to secure gains following the recent rally near record highs. Market participation remained robust, with 629.7mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and 1.26bn shares on the All-Share Index. PTC (181mn), BOP (135mn), and CNERGY (91mn) emerged as the most actively traded stocks, reflecting heightened retail and institutional activity despite the bearish tilt. Sentiment was largely shaped by uncertainty surrounding the ongoing IMF review, as investors await clarity on whether the Fund will share the draft Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) this week.
  • A mutual consensus on the MEFP could expedite a staff-level agreement, unlocking the next tranche of financing and reinforcing policy continuity. Conversely, any divergence on fiscal targets—especially post-flood rehabilitation spending—may prolong negotiations and dampen near-term confidence. In essence, the market appears to be entering a consolidation phase after months of exuberant gains, with investors shifting focus from valuation expansion to policy execution risks and the evolving macrofinancial dialogue with the IMF. Consequently, investors are advised to tread cautiously, closely tracking developments on the IMF front, while selectively accumulating blue-chip names on dips amid potential bouts of volatility.
Morning News: PM hails Bloomberg’s positive reports on Pak economy – By HMFS Research

Oct 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday welcoming Bloomberg’s recent positive report on Pakistan’s economy said that the notable decrease in the price of Pakistan’s Credit Default Swap (CDS) reflected a consistent increase in global investors’ confidence in the country’s economy. According to the report, there has been a significant reduction of 2,200 basis points in the default risk implied in Pakistan’s CDS, a press statement issued by the PM Office said. Pakistan is now the second country among emerging economies, following Turkiye, in the global rankings, which is great news for our economy, the prime minister said adding that at the end of the previous government’s tenure, the country was on the brink of default.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has announced the revisions in trade data, however no major changes is expected in the current account (C/A) statistics. SBP on Monday said that in response to recently circulating news that due to recent Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) trade data revisions, there will be similar revisions in SBP trade data and current account (C/A) balance outturns as well. In this regard, SBP has clarified that SBP’s trade data is computed mainly on the basis of trade payments data received from banks; hence, there will be no significant revision in C/A balance data already published by SBP. Minor revisions may continue as per practice, the SBP said.
Morning News: IMF seeks clarity on $11b trade data gap – By HMFS Research

Oct 6 2025


HMFS Research


  • The IMF has asked Pakistan to publicly disclose $11 billion worth of discrepancies in trade data reported by two government entities over the last two fiscal years, raising questions about the credibility of the country's external sector indicators. Government sources told The Express Tribune that imports reported by Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL) were $5.1 billion lower than those reported by Pakistan Single Window (PSW) for fiscal year 2023-24. The difference widened further to $5.7 billion in the following fiscal year, they added.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has arrived in Malaysia on a three-day official visit at the invitation of his Malaysian counterpart Anwar Ibrahim, PM Office said on Sunday. During the visit, Prime Minister Shehbaz will hold talks with his Malaysian counterpart, while the two sides will also engage in delegation-level discussions.