Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Sustaining above moving averages – By AKD Research

Oct 16 2025


AKD Securities


  • The index opened on a strong positive note and remained volatile throughout the session. It recorded an intraday high of 2,086 points and a low of 119 points before closing with a modest gain of 210 points at 165,686. Market participation strengthened, with trading volumes surg ing by 53% from the previous session. On the daily chart, the Index continues to hold above both its minor and major moving averages. Among momentum indicators, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) stands at 61.14, while the parabolic SAR (Stop & Reverse) remains positioned below the current index level since the last session, indicating continued bullish momentum.
  • From a technical standpoint, immediate support lies at 165,200, and a breakdown below this level could trigger further weakness towards 164,600 and 163,600. On the upside, resistance is expected around 166,800, followed by 167,400 and 168,400. Traders are advised to trade with a cautious approach and accumulate positions on weakness.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Oct 17 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index witnessed another session of heightened volatility, touching an intraday high of 165,031 before settling at 163,806, down -638.51 points (-0.39%). Market sentiment remained cautious, with profit-taking weighing on performance as investors trimmed positions across key sectors, including automobile assemblers, cement, commercial banks, oil and gas exploration companies, OMCs, power generation and refinery.
  • On economic front, The State Bank of Pakistan’s FY25 Annual Report highlights that prudent monetary and fiscal policies, along with IMF support and favorable global conditions, strengthened macroeconomic stability, reducing inflation to an eight-year low, achieving a current account surplus, and cutting the fiscal deficit to a nine-year low. Among key index movers, MARI, UBL, HBL, POL, & ENGROH, cumulatively dragged the benchmark down by -380.52 points. WTL led volumes with 891.36 million shares; overall market turnover was 1,978.65 million shares
Pakistan Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a negative note – By IIS Research

Oct 17 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a negative note, exhibiting volatility throughout the session, primarily due to the absence of any significant positive triggers. Trading volumes decreased to 500mn shares today as compared to 1390mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index lost 639 points to close at 163,806 level, down by -0.39% DoD. Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, Commercial Banks, and Power Generation & Distribution sectors were the major laggards in today's session, cumulatively shedding 497 points from the index.             
Pakistan Market Wrap: Volatility Persists: KSE-100 Slips 1,300 Points – By HMFS Research

Oct 17 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market remained volatile today, trading largely in the red as sentiment oscillated between optimism and caution. The downside was primarily driven by escalating Pakistan–Afghanistan geopolitical tensions, which unsettled investors and triggered broad-based profit-taking. Further pressure emerged after Finance Minister highlighted that recent floods affecting vast agricultural areas could weigh on economic growth this year, amplifying concerns over near-term fundamentals. Consequently, the KSE-100 Index extended its decline, closing 639 points lower at 163,806 level, marking a sharp correction on the last trading session.
  • The KSE-100 index recorded 500mn shares traded, while overall market volumes surged to 1.98bn shares. WTL (891mn), KEL (263mn), and BOP (84mn) emerged as the day’s top volume leaders. Looking ahead, market fundamentals remain robust, underpinned by improving macroeconomic indicators, the anticipated IMF inflow, and ongoing bilateral engagements with key partners. The onset of the quarterly results season is also expected to provide fresh upward momentum to the index. While intermittent volatility and profit-taking may emerge—particularly if geopolitical tensions intensify—the overall sentiment remains constructive. Investors are advised to maintain a balanced and fundamentals-driven approach, focusing on companies with resilient earnings and sustainable growth prospects, while staying mindful of short-term market shifts.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 163,806 down 639points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Oct 17 2025


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market began the session on a strong note but experienced volatility throughout the day. The KSE-100 Index touched an intraday high of 165,031 and a low of 163,118 before settling at 163,806, marking a decline of 639 points. Trading activity remained robust, with a total volume of 550.4 million shares and a traded value of approximately PKR 22 billion.
  • Major contributors to the index’s decline included MARI (-1.5%, -91 points), UBL (-0.7%, -78 points), HBL (-1.3%, -77 points), POL (-2.4%, -68 points), and ENGROH (-0.9%, -67 points). On the volume front, KEL and BOP led the activity with 262.7 million and 84.2 million shares traded, respectively.
Pakistan Cements: Demand uptick to catalyse further rerating – By Insight Research

Oct 17 2025


Insight Securities


  • Pakistan cement sector has rallied 33% FYTD vs. KSE100’s 32% return. Despite utilization hovering at a depressed level of ~45%, sector’s profitability and stock performance have remained robust. Historically, sector valuations have moved closely in tandem with demand cycles, with P/E multiple stretching towards 10x during boom cycles and contracting to 5x in period of subdued demand. Unlike previous cycles where weak demand triggered price wars and subsequent compressed valuations, cement players have observed strict pricing discipline during current cycle.
  • With political and economic stability, deleveraged balance sheet, lower interest rates and no major capacity additions in short run, the sector appears well positioned to sustain its upward momentum, while any improvement in demand outlook remains a key upside trigger.
Pakistan Fertilizers: Fertilizer off-take down 45%MoM – By Taurus Research

Oct 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Total fertilizer off-take was down significantly i.e. 45%MoM in Sep’25 to 625,692 tons due to the impact of the flood devastation (late Aug’25-early Sep’25), poor farm economics as well as higher input costs which had dropped yields on the cash crops i.e. mainly wheat—likely to disrupt demand for the fertilizer products in the near-term. Elsewhere, the resumption of loan disbursement under the Kissan Card scheme and other incentive schemes may support some demand for Fertilizer products during the upcoming Rabi Season 2025-26.
  • On a YoY basis, total fertilizer off-take was up 6%YoY in Sep’25 on the back of the Government’s stance to provide incentives as well as increase in credit disbursements to the farmers to improve agronomic activities. 
Morning News: Pakistan, IMF mull raising tax rates on solar panels, internet – By Vector Research

Oct 17 2025


Vector Securities


  • Following the rejection of proposals to increase tax rates on fertilizer and pesticides, Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are considering alternative options — raising taxes on rooftop solar panels, internet services and other sectors — as contingency measures in case of a revenue shortfall. These identified contingency measures are expected to be part of the IMF’s second review report, to be released after the approval of a $1 billion tranche under the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The measures would only be triggered under two conditions: if the revenue shortfall for the first half (July-December) of the fiscal year exceeds projections, and if the Finance Ministry is unable to reduce its expenditures. (The News)
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast a gradual improvement in Pakistan’s fiscal indicators over the next five years, including a lower fiscal deficit and a reduced debt-to-GDP ratio. However, it has also warned of persistent revenue shortfalls and rising pension and health expenditures. (Dawn)
Morning News: Asian shares fall, gold claims new record as banking fears weigh – By Shajar Research

Oct 17 2025


Shajar Capital


  • Asian shares tracked Wall Street lower, bonds extended gains and gold hit a fresh record on Friday, with signs of credit stress at U.S. regional banks putting investors on edge. (Reuters)
  • Oil prices edged lower in early trade on Friday, heading for a weekly loss, with uncertainty over global energy supplies after U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to meet in Hungary to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. (Reuters)
Morning News: Macroeconomic stability in FY25 – By Spectrum Research

Oct 17 2025


Spectrum Securities


  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Thursday said a prudent monetary policy stance and continued fiscal consolidation strengthened macroeconomic stability in FY25. Moreover, favourable global commodity prices and IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) further supported improvement in overall macroeconomic conditions.
  • Pakistan is actively working to diversify its international trade settlement mechanisms and promote the use of local currencies.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 Wavers Amid Profit-Taking and Volatility – By HMFS Research

Oct 16 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile trading session, oscillating between optimism and caution as investors weighed short-term gains against the broader economic outlook. The benchmark opened on a positive note, climbing 1,179 points intraday, driven by renewed optimism over the anticipated USD 1.2bn IMF tranche disbursement expected later this week. However, the bullish momentum faded as investors chose to book profits at higher levels, pulling the market into negative territory by the session’s close. The index ultimately settled at 164,445, down 1,242 points from the previous close. The Fertilizer and Technology sectors were the key laggards, exerting downward pressure on the benchmark.
  • Despite the correction, trading activity remained exceptionally strong, reflecting sustained investor engagement. The KSE-100 index recorded 1.39bn shares traded, while overall market volumes surged to 3.08bn shares, marking one of the highest turnover sessions in PSX history. KEL (1.02bn), WTL (953.71mn), and TELE (99.87mn) emerged as the day’s top volume leaders. Looking ahead, market fundamentals remain intact, supported by positive macroeconomic developments, including the expected IMF inflow and ongoing bilateral discussions with key allies. While intermittent volatility and short-term profit taking phases may persist, the underlying sentiment stays constructive. Investors are advised to adopt a balanced approach, focusing on fundamentally sound stocks with long-term growth potential while remaining attentive to near-term market dynamics.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Sustaining above moving averages – By AKD Research

Oct 16 2025


AKD Securities


  • The index opened on a strong positive note and remained volatile throughout the session. It recorded an intraday high of 2,086 points and a low of 119 points before closing with a modest gain of 210 points at 165,686. Market participation strengthened, with trading volumes surg ing by 53% from the previous session. On the daily chart, the Index continues to hold above both its minor and major moving averages. Among momentum indicators, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) stands at 61.14, while the parabolic SAR (Stop & Reverse) remains positioned below the current index level since the last session, indicating continued bullish momentum.
  • From a technical standpoint, immediate support lies at 165,200, and a breakdown below this level could trigger further weakness towards 164,600 and 163,600. On the upside, resistance is expected around 166,800, followed by 167,400 and 168,400. Traders are advised to trade with a cautious approach and accumulate positions on weakness.
Baluchistan Glass Ltd. (BGL): FY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By AKD Research

Oct 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • Company posted a loss of PkR713mn (LPS: PkR1.85) in FY25 vs PkR509mn (LPS: PkR1.94) in SPLY. Management attributed the loss to: i) 6.5 month production shutdown, ii) elevated raw material and energy costs (fuel and energy: 40% of COGS), and iii) higher financing cost due to an increase in short-term borrowings.
  • Company operates three manufacturing facilities with a combined capacity of 375 TPD; however, none of these are currently operational. Sales mix includes tableware, pharmaceutical, and container-ware glass, with all plants designed for multi-purpose production.
  • Company achieved financial restructuring through issuance of 376.9mn new shares to MMM Holding Ltd against its outstanding loans, through by way of other than right offer. This transaction increased paid-up capital from PkR2.6bn to PkR6.3bn, raising MMM Holding’s stake to 93.59% (FY24: 84.34%).
Atlas Battery Ltd. (ATBA): FY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By AKD Research

Oct 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • Company posted topline of PkR35.2bn FY25 vs PkR41.5bn in FY24, a de crease of 15%YoY. Management attributed the drop in revenue to a 10% reduction in Automotive battery (AMB) sales.
  • Management stated, market demand has shifted from heavy to medium sized batteries. Alongside, increasing competition from imported lithium-ion batteries, which are gradually replacing lead-acid batteries in the storage segment, has weighed on demand for lead-storage batteries.
United Bank Limited (UBL): Result Review — Higher asset base led to earnings increase – By AKD Research

Oct 15 2025


AKD Securities


  • United Bank Ltd (UBL) announced its 3QCY25 financial results earlier today, wherein the bank posted NPAT of PkR35.3bn (EPS: PkR14.1) for the quarter, up 93%YoY/24%QoQ. The result is in line with our expectations. In addition to the result, bank announced an interim cash payout of PkR8.0/sh, taking nine month cash payout to PkR21.5/sh.
  • NII recorded at PkR92.0bn in 3QCY25, up by 78%YoY/1%QoQ, primarily due to higher investment book, up 37%YoY and advances, up 78%YoY/4%QoQ.
  • Mark-up earned decreased by 4%YoY/2%QoQ to PkR298bn, while mark-up expensed was recorded at PkR205bn (down 21%YoY/3%QoQ). Notably, the bank’s estimated NIMs moderated to 3.7% in 3QCY25 compared to 3.9% in the previous quarter.
SPEL Limited (SPEL): FY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By AKD Research

Oct 14 2025


AKD Securities


  • To recall, company posted a topline of PkR9.63bn in FY25, compared to PkR6.97bn in the SPLY, up 38%YoY, driven by market expansion and in creased customer reach.
  • Company reported earnings of PkR1.25bn (EPS: PkR6.60) in FY25 vs. PkR641mn (EPS: PkR3.36) in the SPLY, reflecting a 96% YoY increase, primarily driven by lower power cost due to solarization, higher output, and cheaper sea freight. Notably, gross margins rose to 26.9% in FY25 from 18.9% in SPLY.
  • Local sales increased by 25%YoY to PkR8.4bn, due to increased demand in domestic market. In addition, exports surged to PkR1.3bn, up 5.0x YoY, with company expanding footprint in Europe and USA in order to capture high value markets.
Pakistan Automobiles: Carmakers shift into high gear as sales surge in Sep'25 – By AKD Research

Oct 13 2025


AKD Securities


  • In Sep’25, the auto sector witnessed a surge in volumes, up 61%YoY, with total industry sales reaching 18,788 units. The incline in sales was largely attributable to a 67%YoY increase in Passenger cars & LCVs sales. Moreover, trucks sales also witnessed an increase of 168%YoY.
  • Segment-wise, passenger cars with engine capacities of 1,000cc and above emerged as the top-performing segment, clocking in at 6,224 units (up 64%YoY), primarily attributable to increased sales of Alto, Swift, Cultus and Ravi. Alongside, sales of 800cc and below reported at 5,439 units (up 45%YoY).
  • We anticipate above 20%YoY growth in the auto sector for FY26 and FY27, respectively. INDU stands out as our recommended pick with Jun’26 target price PkR3,585/ sh. We anticipate INDU to capture a major chunk of the HEVs market moving forward.
Pakistan Markets: Weekly Market Review – By AKD Research

Oct 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • Market remained under pressure during the week, given investor skepticism amid political uncertainty stemming from tensions between the government and its coalition allies. Sentiment was further dampened as the IMF mission departed without securing a staff level agreement, although the mission chief noted that significant progress had been made, with second phase of discussions to continues in Washington. The benchmark index declined by 5,891pts during the week, down 3.49%WoW, to close at 163,098pts.
  • Moreover, market participation weakened by 7.6%WoW with avg daily traded volume down to 1.6bn shares, compared to 1.8bn shares in the prior week. On the macroeco nomic front, the National Accounts Committee revised Pakistan’s FY25 GDP growth esti mate upward to 3.04%, compared to the earlier provisional figure of 2.68%. In addition, Worker Remittance’s clocked in at US$3.2bn in Sep’25, up 11%YoY. Moreover, SBP held FX reserves increased by US$20mn WoW, ending the week at US$14.4bn as of Oct 3rd. On the currency front, PkR appreciated by 0.03%WoW against the greenback during the week, closing the week at 281.17 PkR/US$.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Volatility Persists in an Uptrend – By AKD Research

Oct 10 2025


AKD Securities


  • The index opened on a strong note but witnessed volatility throughout the trading session. It recorded an intraday high of 1,463 points and a low of 960 points before closing with a significant loss of 736 points at 164,531. Market participation strengthened, with trading volumes rising by 26% compared to the previous session. The KSE-100 Index remains in an uptrend, standing 29.0% above its 200-period moving aver age. However, volatility continues to stay elevated relative to the average of the last 10 sessions, though there are signs it may subside soon, allowing level to stabilize. The momentum oscillator RSI (Relative Strength Index) has hit a new 14-period low, currently standing at 65.88.
  • From a technical standpoint, immediate support lies at 164,300, and a breakdown below this level could trigger further weakness towards 163,800 and 162,400. On the upside, resistance is expected around 166,000, followed by 166,700 and 167,400. Traders are advised to accumulate on dips while maintaining a defined risk below the support zone.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Volatile trading session likely – By AKD Research

Oct 8 2025


AKD Securities


  • The index opened on a positive note but remained volatile throughout the session. It recorded an intraday high of 767 points and a low of 1,755 points before closing with a sharp decline of 1,579 points at 166,174. Trading volumes showed little change, edging up by just 1% from the previous session. The KSE100 closed 20.9% below the upper Bollinger Band, while the bands themselves are 69.03% wider than usual indicating heightened volatility. This broader range suggests an increased likelihood of volatility cooling off, with the index expected to con solidate or trade within a defined range in the near term. Notably, the bands have remained in this expanded state for the past three sessions.
  • As per chart structure immediate support at 165,800, a breach below this level could lead to further downside towards 165,400 and 165,000. Conversely, resistance is seen at 167,300, followed by 168,500 and 169,200. It is advisable to accumulate on dips, keeping risk defined below the support area.