Pakistan Economy: Sep’25 Balance of Payments (BOP) – By Taurus Research

Oct 21 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Current Account (CA) for Sep’25 arrived in at a surplus of USD 110Mn, as against a deficit of USD 325Mn in Aug’25. Cumulatively, 1QFY26 CAD stood at USD 594Mn, up 18% over the SPLY. Improved performance of CA in Sep’25 can be attributed to: i) 4% MoM decrease in the trade deficit; and ii) 57%MoM decrease in the services deficit, respectively. Overall, balance on goods & ser vices fell 13% on a sequential basis, pushing the CA into a sur plus, after two consecutive months of CA deficit.
  • During the month, goods exports were up 5%MoM mainly driven by the 13%MoM surge in textile exports, amounting to USD 1.6Bn. Wherein, the major contributors were Knitwear, Bedwear and Ready-made Garments, respectively. Food exports were up 7%MoM; Tobacco being the biggest contributor to the growth.
Pakistan Economy: Sep’25 Balance of Payments (BOP) – By Taurus Research

Oct 21 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Current Account (CA) for Sep’25 arrived in at a surplus of USD 110Mn, as against a deficit of USD 325Mn in Aug’25. Cumulatively, 1QFY26 CAD stood at USD 594Mn, up 18% over the SPLY. Improved performance of CA in Sep’25 can be attributed to: i) 4% MoM decrease in the trade deficit; and ii) 57%MoM decrease in the services deficit, respectively. Overall, balance on goods & ser vices fell 13% on a sequential basis, pushing the CA into a sur plus, after two consecutive months of CA deficit.
  • During the month, goods exports were up 5%MoM mainly driven by the 13%MoM surge in textile exports, amounting to USD 1.6Bn. Wherein, the major contributors were Knitwear, Bedwear and Ready-made Garments, respectively. Food exports were up 7%MoM; Tobacco being the biggest contributor to the growth.
Interloop Limited (ILP): Reinitiating with a BUY — Back in the Fast Lane – By IIS Research

Nov 4 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • We reinitiate coverage on Interloop Limited (ILP) with a ‘BUY’ recommendation. ILP is one of Pakistan’s largest textile exporters and a global leader in socks, supplying renowned brands such as Nike, Adidas, Puma, and H&M. Our positive stance reflects ILP’s strong export driven earnings trajectory, expected recovery in apparel and denim margins, and robust expansion pipeline across the Denim and Yarn segments following the completion of Hosiery Plant 6.
  • Our DCF based target price for ILP is PKR 108/share by June 2026, representing an upside of 38% from the last closing price of PKR 80.6/share. The stock also offers a dividend yield of 4%. Overall, ILP offers a compelling risk reward profile, supported by strong fundamentals, diversified export relationships, and strategic growth initiatives. With a 38% upside to our target price and ongoing expansion in high margin segments, ILP is well positioned to sustain its leadership in global textile exports while delivering attractive shareholder returns.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 testing resistance at the 30-DMA – By JS Research

Nov 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • KSE-100 index showed positive movement to close at the 162,803 level, up 1,171 points. Volumes stood at 949mn shares versus 953mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to face resistance between 163,490 and 163,940 levels where a break above the said range will target 165,828 and 168,414 levels, respectively. However, any downside will find support within 160,830-161,900 range. The RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator are moving up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to 'Buy on dips', with risk defined below the 50-DMA at 159,566 level. The support and resistance are at 161,819 and 163,861 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Pakistan sets three-year economic plan targeting 5.7% growth – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Nov 4 2025


Alpha Capital


  • The federal government has set ambitious economic targets for the next three years, aiming to raise the GDP growth rate to between 4.2% and 5.7%. Other targets include increasing the size of the national economy to PKR 162,513bn, boosting exports by more than USD 10bn, and increasing remittances to a record USD 44.8bn.
  • Exposing the Power Division’s claims of reforms in the power sector, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has observed that weak regulatory frameworks and governance issues — including lack of transparency and poor performance — continue to prevent power distribution companies (Discos) from accessing commercial borrowing.
Morning News: $636b worth of gold reserves found in Tarbela – By Vector Research

Nov 4 2025


Vector Securities


  • Gold reserves worth $636 billion have been discovered at Tarbela and a briefing on these reserves has been given to the chief of army staff, who responded positively. This revelation was made by Hanif Gohar, Chairman of Air Karachi. He said that the gold reserves found in Tarbela were sufficient to pay off the country's foreign debt and the matter had already been brought to the attention of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) governor. (ET)
  • Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) Chairman Rashid Mahmood Langrial has ruled out any contingency plan in terms of implementing new taxation measures despite a revenue shortfall of Rs 275 billion during the July-October (2025-26) period. FBR’s shortfall in tax collection stood at Rs 275 billion during the first four months of 2025-26, but noted that no emergency tax measures would be required this year. (BR)
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Nov 3 2025


Vector Securities


  • Evening Note.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Nov 3 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index extended its bullish momentum from the previous session, reaching an intraday high of 162,803.15 before settling at 161,631.73, up by 1,171.42 points (0.72%).
  • Investor confidence strengthened amid easing rollover week pressure and a calmer political environment. Sustained buying interest across key sectors including Automobile Assemblers, Cement, Commercial Banks, Fertilizer, Oil & Gas Exploration, OMCs, Power Generation, and Refinery fueled the market’s upward momentum. On the macroeconomic front, Pakistan’s headline inflation for October 2025 came in at 6.2% YoY, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday, slightly above the Ministry of Finance’s projected range of 5–6%. Major contributors to the index included FFC, ENGRO, NBP, HUBC, and TRG, collectively adding 1,131.47 points to the benchmark. HASCOL led the volume chart with 119.51 million shares traded, while overall market turnover stood at 947.85 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note – By IIS Research

Nov 3 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a positive note, with momentum supported by easing rollover week pressure and a relatively stable political backdrop. Trading volumes decreased to 353mn shares today as compared to 409mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 1,171 points to close at 162,803 level, up by 0.72% DoD. Fertilizer, Power Generation & Distribution, and Oil & Gas Exploration Companies sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 751 points to the index.
Pakistan Markets: TEL and TNTPL achieve project completion; HUBC and FFC to be beneficiaries – By AKD Research

Nov 3 2025


AKD Securities


  • Hub Power Company (HUBC) has announced that lenders of Thar Energy Limited (TEL) and ThalNova Power Thar (TN) have formally declared Project Completion Date (PCD) for both 330MW Thar-based coal IPPs as of Oct 31, 2025. With PCD achieved, both projects are now eligible to commence dividend payouts, HUBC holds 60% in TEL and 38.3% in TN. Notably, TEL achieved COD in Oct'22, while TNTPL reached COD in Feb'23, compared to the targeted COD date of Mar'21 for both plants.
  • Notably, we have already incorporated gross dividend assumptions of ~PkR3.0/5.0 per share for both TEL and TNTPL in FY26/27E.
Pakistan Economy: Geo-politics outweigh fundamentals – By JS Research

Nov 3 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index corrected 7% from its recent peak, closing 2.3% lower MoM – its first decline after five months of MoM gains. Profit-taking by insurance companies, mutual funds, and foreign investors led to net selling of US$104mn amid geopolitical unrest. Notably, border tensions with Afghanistan weighed on sentiment, though markets recovered slightly following a ceasefire. Despite strong corporate results and IMF Staff level agreement, external political concerns overshadowed the positive developments. Top gainers included AKBL (+16%), ABL (+8%), ILP (+7%), and FFC (+6%), while trading volumes rose 7% MoM in Oct-2025.
  • Oil prices (WTI) fell to a 5month low in October, closing at US$61/bbl, being the 3rd consecutive monthly decline. The drop was driven by supply-side concerns as OPEC members increased output and US production reached record levels. Meanwhile, the PKR/US$ appreciated by 0.1% MoM, closing at 280.91 – a 6 month high on the back of strong inflows. We believe the continuation of such trend could help in easing pressure on import bill and inflation.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Rebounds amidst good volumes – By AKD Research

Nov 3 2025


AKD Securities


  • The index opened on a positive note and maintained strong bullish momentum throughout the session. It hit an intraday high of 5,461 points before ending with a substantial gain of 4,899 points at 161,632. Market activity improved modestly, with trading volumes rising by 8% compared to the previous session. A large bullish candle formed on the chart, indicating strong upward sentiment as the index closed significantly above its opening level reinforcing the strength of underlying support. Over the last 10 trading sessions, the index has recorded 3 positive and 7 negative closings, resulting in a net of 4 negative sessions.
  • Technically, the immediate support is seen at 161,100 and a breach below this could extend the decline toward 160,700 and 159,700. Conversely, resistance is expected around 161,800, followed by 162,500 and 163,100. It is recommended to accumulate positions near support zone with risk defined closing below it.
Shabbir Tiles & Ceramics Limited (STCL): FY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Oct 31 2025


Taurus Securities


  • STCL was founded in 1978 by one of Pakistan’s largest conglomerates - House of Habib. STCL is the pioneer and first private sector enterprise in the ceramic industry of Pakistan. The Company is primarily engaged in the manufacture and sale of tiles and trading of allied building products. The Company’s brand “STILE” enjoys the leading position in the tile industry of Pakistan. It is the only Company in Pakistan which produces Porcelain.
  • In FY25, the Company’s sales declined 11%YoY to PKR 13.8Bn from PKR 15.6Bn, mainly due to decline in sales volumes and slowdown within construction sector. To add the volumes declined 20%YoY during the year. Gross margins declined 3ppts. Consequently, LAT arrived at PKR 192Mn as compared to the PAT in the SPLY of PKR 320Mn, down 1.6xYoY. Resultantly, LPS arrived at PKR 0.80/sh.
Attock Refinery Limited (ATRL): FY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Oct 31 2025


Taurus Securities


  • ATRL’s management discussed some major developments during FY25 results; depicting pressure on utilization (65% in FY25) due to lower crude receipts i.e. SNGPL gas issues and lower demand which reduced crude production in the North region – forcing ATRL to refine less crude during the period. In order to mitigate this issue, the management requested the Government to procure local crude (~5K barrels per day) from the South region to maintain utilization while giving incentives on the transportation cost through IFEM disbursement – decision is still in pending.
  • During FY25, gross margins plunged by ~5pptsYoY due to lower GRM amid normalized international crude prices (inventory losses) along with lower throughput due to lower crude receipts from North region. Inventory losses during 1QFY26 were recorded at PKR 1Bn. GRMs during FY25 and 1QFY26 were recorded at USD 9/bbl and USD 8/bbl, respectively. Moreover, the Company exported LSFO (Low sulphur furnace oil) during FY25 at a premium to domestic LSFO sales but the margins deteriorated due to higher transportation cost from Site to Karachi port i.e. PKR 13-15K/bbl. The current conversion cost is in between USD 6-7/bbl.
Century Paper & Board Mills Limited (CEPB): FY25 & 1QFY26 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Oct 30 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Century Paper and Board Mills Limited (CEPB) is involved in manufacturing and marketing paper, board, and related products. CEPB produces: multi-ply, clay-coated and uncoated packaging boards for folding carton needs; machine-finished writing and printing papers for the publishing, exercise books, computer stationery, photocopying, inkjet/laser printing, and general printing markets; machine-glazed papers designed for foil/poly lamination and wrappings; and corrugated boxes.
  • CEPB has annual capacities of 280,000MT for paper and paper board production and 35,000 for their conversion. In FY25, it produced 157,285MT (down 12%YoY) and converted 24,353MT (up 11%YoY) of paper and board.
Interloop Limited (ILP): FY25 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Oct 30 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Sales clocked in at PKR 173Bn as compared to PKR 156Bn, up 11% in FY25, attributable to a multi-category strategy. Gross margin decreased ~8ppts arriving at 20% primarily due to inflationary pressure of costs, high energy costs, PKR depreciation and higher costs of ramp up phase of apparel division. Finance costs declined ~6%YoY driven by lower interest rates.
  • Consequently, PAT clocked in at PKR 5Bn as compared to PKR 16Bn, down 69%. As a result, EPS arrived at PKR 3.84/sh. ILP also announced a dividend of PKR 1/share for FY25.
The Hub Power Company Limited (HUBC): 1QFY26 Result Review – By Taurus Research

Oct 30 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Net sales declined 46%YoY to PKR 17.4Bn, mainly due to the absence of the base plant’s earnings and lower tariffs for NEL. On a QoQ basis, revenue fell 7%, reflecting lower plant utilization at Laraib.
  • Earnings from associates came around PKR 10.8Bn, up 4%YoY, primarily due to better profit contribution from CPHGC. However, sequentially, contribution from Mega Motors is also likely to have increased.
  • Finance costs declined 54%YoY to PKR 2.5Bn, driven by lower interest rates and debt repayments on loans previously taken for Chinese IPPs, which have eased borrowing pressures. The Company continues deleveraging its balance sheet, containing finance charges.
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL): 1QFY26 Result Review - By Taurus Research

Oct 29 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QFY26 EPS: PKR 7.4; 1QFY26 DPS: 2.0. 1QFY26 PAT: ~PKR 20Bn; down 15%YoY/up 4%QoQ – in line with expectations. Additionally, the Company also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.0.
  • Net sales for the quarter arrived at PKR 56.8Bn, down 14%YoY, up 10%QoQ. Wherein, the YoY decline is mainly attributable to lower production amid continuing forced curtailment as well as lower realized prices. However, QoQ uptick can be attributed to slightly better flows, and 4%QoQ increase in average Arab Light prices.
Power Generation & Distribution: 1QFY26 Result Previews – By Taurus Research

Oct 27 2025


Taurus Securities


  • NPL is expected to post a PAT of PKR 431Mn (EPS: PKR 1.22) in 1QFY26, down 74%YoY/1xQoQ. Revenues are estimated at PKR 1.7Bn, declining 37%YoY due to lower plant utilization, which restricted capacity payments as ROE entitlement remained capped at 35%. Moreover, revenue also declined 7%QoQ on sea sonal fall in demand. Other income is expected at PKR 532Mn, supported by interest earnings on sizable cash reserves. Finally, we expect NPL to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.0/sh. for the quarter.
  • NCPL is projected to post a PAT of PKR 280Mn (EPS: PKR 0.76) in 1QFY26, down 39%YoY/17%QoQ, driven by lower plant utilization. Net sales are expected at PKR 1.3Bn, down 39%YoY, de spite flat generation, primarily due to lower fuel indexation. On a sequential basis, revenue to drop 17%, reflecting lower dispatch es. On the back of healthy cash reserves, we expect the Company to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 2.00/sh. in 1QFY26.
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL): 1QFY26 EPS clocked-in at PKR 2.6; PAT Down 17%YoY – By Taurus Research

Oct 27 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 4QFY25: EPS: PKR 2.6; DPS: NIL; PAT: PKR 514Mn, down 66%QoQ.
  • MTL’s revenue stood at PKR 7.5Bn in 1QFY26, down 6%YoY and 39%QoQ, primarily due to a 46% decline in units sold to 2,177 tractors during the quarter (vs. 4,062 units in 4QFY25). This drop was attributed to the floods mainly which subdued agricultural activity and weakened farm economics, adversely impacting tractor demand. Looking ahead, we expect demand to remain muted in the upcoming quarter due to weaker farm economics largely.
  • Gross margin improved by 2ppts to 27% from 25%; however, the benefit was offset by lower sales volumes and contraction in net margin due to higher admin and distribution expenses (as % of sales), dragging PBT to PKR 790Mn down 19%YoY and 58%QoQ. Meanwhile, finance cost declined to PKR 471Mn, down 25%YoY and 30%QoQ, driven by lower interest rates.
Gul Ahmed Textile Mills Limited (GATM): Result Review – By Taurus Research

Oct 27 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Board Meeting: October 25, 2025
  • 1QFY26: – EPS: PKR 0.41, PAT: PKR 307Mn, down ~8% over the SPLY.
  • In 1QFY26, GATM posted a top line of PKR 48.8Bn, stable YoY/up 7%QoQ amid softer home textile exports and overall lower demand. Gross margins increased slightly i.e. 1ppsYoY but declined 8pptsQoQ, mainly due to the higher costs of production. While, other income fell sharply by 60%YoY and 3.2xQoQ, respectively.
Agha Steel Industries Limited (AGHA): 1QFY26 Result Review – By Taurus Research

Oct 23 2025


Taurus Securities


  • 1QFY26 LPS: PKR 1.9; LAT: PKR 1.2Bn, down 43%QoQ – lower loss than expected.
  • AGHA’s net sales arrived at ~PKR 2.2Bn, down 17%QoQ due to lower construction demand; resulting in a decline of sales volume i.e. mainly in the South region. Gross loss hovered at 15% in 1QFY26, down 16ppts compared to the previous quarter. Albeit, higher cost of production and lower capacity utilization will keep the margins under pressure, going forward. Further, selling and admin expenses went up significantly by 3.0xQoQ and 29%QoQ in 1QFY26. Moreover, finance cost arrived at PKR 731Mn in 1QFY26, down 4%QoQ due to lower interest rates during the period. 1QFY26 LAT clocked-in at PKR 1.2Bn, down significantly by 43%QoQ. Lastly, the Company posted LPS of PKR 1.9 during the quarter.
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