Morning News: US signs 10-year defence pact with India: Pentagon chief – By HMFS Research

Nov 3 2025


HMFS Research


  • US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth held talks on Friday with counterparts from China and India, among a series of face-to-face meetings at an ASEAN defence summit in Malaysia as Washington seeks to boost its influence and regional security ties. He also hailed as “a cornerstone for regional stability and deterrence” a new 10-year defence cooperation framework signed with Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh.
  • President Asif Ali Zardari will attend the Second World Summit for Social Development in Qatari capital Doha from November 4 to 6, being held under the auspices of the United Nations General Assembly. According to a statement issued from the President’s Secretariat on Sunday, the summit will bring together world leaders and policymakers to discuss ways of advancing social development, promoting decent work and employment opportunities, as well as strengthening inclusive safety nets.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Nov 3 2025


Vector Securities


  • Evening Note.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Nov 3 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index extended its bullish momentum from the previous session, reaching an intraday high of 162,803.15 before settling at 161,631.73, up by 1,171.42 points (0.72%).
  • Investor confidence strengthened amid easing rollover week pressure and a calmer political environment. Sustained buying interest across key sectors including Automobile Assemblers, Cement, Commercial Banks, Fertilizer, Oil & Gas Exploration, OMCs, Power Generation, and Refinery fueled the market’s upward momentum. On the macroeconomic front, Pakistan’s headline inflation for October 2025 came in at 6.2% YoY, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday, slightly above the Ministry of Finance’s projected range of 5–6%. Major contributors to the index included FFC, ENGRO, NBP, HUBC, and TRG, collectively adding 1,131.47 points to the benchmark. HASCOL led the volume chart with 119.51 million shares traded, while overall market turnover stood at 947.85 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note – By IIS Research

Nov 3 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a positive note, with momentum supported by easing rollover week pressure and a relatively stable political backdrop. Trading volumes decreased to 353mn shares today as compared to 409mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 1,171 points to close at 162,803 level, up by 0.72% DoD. Fertilizer, Power Generation & Distribution, and Oil & Gas Exploration Companies sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 751 points to the index.
Pakistan Markets: TEL and TNTPL achieve project completion; HUBC and FFC to be beneficiaries – By AKD Research

Nov 3 2025


AKD Securities


  • Hub Power Company (HUBC) has announced that lenders of Thar Energy Limited (TEL) and ThalNova Power Thar (TN) have formally declared Project Completion Date (PCD) for both 330MW Thar-based coal IPPs as of Oct 31, 2025. With PCD achieved, both projects are now eligible to commence dividend payouts, HUBC holds 60% in TEL and 38.3% in TN. Notably, TEL achieved COD in Oct'22, while TNTPL reached COD in Feb'23, compared to the targeted COD date of Mar'21 for both plants.
  • Notably, we have already incorporated gross dividend assumptions of ~PkR3.0/5.0 per share for both TEL and TNTPL in FY26/27E.
Pakistan Economy: Geo-politics outweigh fundamentals – By JS Research

Nov 3 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index corrected 7% from its recent peak, closing 2.3% lower MoM – its first decline after five months of MoM gains. Profit-taking by insurance companies, mutual funds, and foreign investors led to net selling of US$104mn amid geopolitical unrest. Notably, border tensions with Afghanistan weighed on sentiment, though markets recovered slightly following a ceasefire. Despite strong corporate results and IMF Staff level agreement, external political concerns overshadowed the positive developments. Top gainers included AKBL (+16%), ABL (+8%), ILP (+7%), and FFC (+6%), while trading volumes rose 7% MoM in Oct-2025.
  • Oil prices (WTI) fell to a 5month low in October, closing at US$61/bbl, being the 3rd consecutive monthly decline. The drop was driven by supply-side concerns as OPEC members increased output and US production reached record levels. Meanwhile, the PKR/US$ appreciated by 0.1% MoM, closing at 280.91 – a 6 month high on the back of strong inflows. We believe the continuation of such trend could help in easing pressure on import bill and inflation.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Rebounds amidst good volumes – By AKD Research

Nov 3 2025


AKD Securities


  • The index opened on a positive note and maintained strong bullish momentum throughout the session. It hit an intraday high of 5,461 points before ending with a substantial gain of 4,899 points at 161,632. Market activity improved modestly, with trading volumes rising by 8% compared to the previous session. A large bullish candle formed on the chart, indicating strong upward sentiment as the index closed significantly above its opening level reinforcing the strength of underlying support. Over the last 10 trading sessions, the index has recorded 3 positive and 7 negative closings, resulting in a net of 4 negative sessions.
  • Technically, the immediate support is seen at 161,100 and a breach below this could extend the decline toward 160,700 and 159,700. Conversely, resistance is expected around 161,800, followed by 162,500 and 163,100. It is recommended to accumulate positions near support zone with risk defined closing below it.
Morning News: Oil extends gains after OPEC+ pauses Q1 output hikes – By IIS Research

Nov 3 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Oil prices climbed in early Asian trade on Monday after OPEC+ decided to hold off production hikes in the first quarter of next year, easing rising fears of a supply glut. Brent crude futures rose 47 cents, or 0.73%, to $65.24 a barrel by 2336 GMT after closing 7 cents higher on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $61.43 a barrel, up 45 cents, or 0.74%, after settling up 41 cents in the previous session.
  • The federal government has set ambitious economic targets for the next three years, aiming to raise the GDP growth rate to between 4.2% and 5.7%. Other targets include increasing the size of the national economy to Rs162,513 billion, boosting exports by more than $10 billion, and increasing remittances to a record $44.82 billion.
Morning News: World Bank asks Pakistan to overhaul skewed trade pacts – By Vector Research

Nov 3 2025


Vector Securities


  • The World Bank has asked Pakistan to improve its skewed preferential trade agreements with 10 bilateral partners, ensure a market-determined and flexible exchange rate and push deeper reforms to lower energy and other input costs to turbocharge over three decades of declining exports for sustainable economic growth. (Dawn)
  • The Economic Affairs Division (EAD) has acknowledged that there is no transparent mechanism in place to ensure that loans obtained from the IMF are actually utilised for budgetary support or for maintaining the balance of payments. (BR)
Morning News: Oil extends gains after OPEC+ pauses Q1 output hikes – By Shajar Research

Nov 3 2025


Shajar Capital


  • Oil prices climbed in early Asian trade on Monday after OPEC+ decided to hold off production hikes in the first quarter of next year, easing rising fears of a supply glut. (Reuters)
  • Asian stocks rose on Monday as investors weighed last week's megacap earnings showing significant spending on artificial intelligence, while the dollar held near a three-month high after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers. (Reuters)
Morning News: US signs 10-year defence pact with India: Pentagon chief – By HMFS Research

Nov 3 2025


HMFS Research


  • US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth held talks on Friday with counterparts from China and India, among a series of face-to-face meetings at an ASEAN defence summit in Malaysia as Washington seeks to boost its influence and regional security ties. He also hailed as “a cornerstone for regional stability and deterrence” a new 10-year defence cooperation framework signed with Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh.
  • President Asif Ali Zardari will attend the Second World Summit for Social Development in Qatari capital Doha from November 4 to 6, being held under the auspices of the United Nations General Assembly. According to a statement issued from the President’s Secretariat on Sunday, the summit will bring together world leaders and policymakers to discuss ways of advancing social development, promoting decent work and employment opportunities, as well as strengthening inclusive safety nets.
Morning News: US signs 10-year defence pact with India: Pentagon chief – By HMFS Research

Nov 3 2025


HMFS Research


  • US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth held talks on Friday with counterparts from China and India, among a series of face-to-face meetings at an ASEAN defence summit in Malaysia as Washington seeks to boost its influence and regional security ties. He also hailed as “a cornerstone for regional stability and deterrence” a new 10-year defence cooperation framework signed with Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh.
  • President Asif Ali Zardari will attend the Second World Summit for Social Development in Qatari capital Doha from November 4 to 6, being held under the auspices of the United Nations General Assembly. According to a statement issued from the President’s Secretariat on Sunday, the summit will bring together world leaders and policymakers to discuss ways of advancing social development, promoting decent work and employment opportunities, as well as strengthening inclusive safety nets.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Peace Pact Ignites Rally: KSE-100 Snaps Seven-Day Losing Streak – By HMFS Research

Oct 31 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed a strong rebound today as renewed optimism swept through the market following reports that Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to extend the ceasefire during the Istanbul peace talks. The breakthrough eased geopolitical tensions, restoring investor confidence after a week of sustained pressure. The KSE-100 Index surged by 4,900 points (+3%), closing at the 161,631 level, effectively snapping a seven-day losing streak. The rally reflected broad-based buying, with investors seizing opportunities across key sectors that had seen steep corrections in recent sessions.
  • Trading activity remained robust, underscoring the renewed participation, with 408mn shares traded on the KSE-100 Index and 951mn shares exchanged in the overall market. WTL (98mn), KEL (85mn), and BOP (78mn) led the day’s trading charts as volume leaders. Looking ahead, the market’s trajectory will hinge on the sustainability of the ceasefire and the stability of regional relations. If peace prevails, bullish momentum is likely to persist, supported by improved investor sentiment and undervalued market levels. However, any flare-up in geopolitical tensions could swiftly temper the rally. Investors are advised to remain prudent, capitalize on short-term gains where appropriate, and maintain positions in fundamentally strong scrips that offer long-term growth potential.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Cautious Optimism Dampened by Geopolitical Disruptions – By HMFS Research

Oct 30 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index continued its recent volatile trajectory, opening the session on a bullish note as investors engaged in value buying across fundamentally strong yet undervalued scrips. The benchmark surged by 1,042 points in early trading, reflecting short-lived optimism. However, sentiment soon turned cautious as reports of escalating geopolitical tensions and the U.S. decision to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods to 47% weighed on market confidence. The development is expected to indirectly impact Pakistan’s export competitiveness in the U.S. market, prompting a wave of profit-taking and risk aversion among investors. Consequently, the index plunged by 2,137 points intraday before partially recovering to close at 156,733 points, down 1,732 points from the previous close.
  • Trading activity remained moderate, with 378mn shares exchanged on the KSE100 index and 847mn shares traded across the broader market. BOP (84mn), WTL (50mn), and KEL (48mn) emerged as the volume leaders for the day. Looking ahead, market direction will hinge on macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. A de-escalation in border tensions could trigger a buying resurgence, while ongoing economic improvements are likely to lend stability in the near term. As the rollover week concludes and a new month commences, improved liquidity and sentiment could provide upward momentum on the bourse. Investors are advised to exercise vigilance, remain selective, and focus on fundamentally robust stocks with strong long-term growth prospects.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Selling Pressure Deepens Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty – By HMFS Research

Oct 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • Selling persisted at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) as investor sentiment remained fragile following the inconclusive talks between Islamabad and Kabul, which failed to yield any diplomatic breakthrough. The benchmark KSE-100 Index lost momentum early in the session, eventually closing 1,636 points lower at 158,465, after oscillating between an intraday high of 160,690 and a low of 158,307, marking an overall swing of nearly 2,383 points. Market activity remained robust, with 390mn shares traded on the benchmark index and 950mn shares across the broader market.
  • Among the most actively traded names were KEL (93mn), HASCOL (54mn), and WTL (51mn). Adding to the day’s lackluster mood was the State Bank’s decision to keep the policy rate unchanged, which offered little support to equities, as investors looked past the announcement despite its optimistic undertone on growth and post-flood recovery. Going forward, market direction is likely to hinge on the evolution of regional tensions and upcoming IMF tranche, external flows and inflation dynamics. We advise investors to maintain a selective stance, focusing on fundamentally resilient names with strong balance sheets and defensive earnings profiles until clarity emerges on the geopolitical and policy fronts.
Morning News: IMF may approve USD1.2bn tranche by Dec – By HMFS Research

Oct 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to hold its board meeting by December 2025 to approve the release of the next USD 1.2 billion tranche to Pakistan. According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmed, the country has successfully met all performance criteria required for the IMF review, paving the way for the disbursement under the ongoing IMF program.
  • Stressing the adverse impact of recent floods, the World Bank has said that it expects the country's real GDP growth to remain at 3% in FY26. Predicated on continued macroeconomic stability and commitment to key economic reforms, growth is projected to pick up to 3.4% in FY27 but will likely remain constrained amid tight fiscal policies aimed at rebuilding buffers amid continuing global policy uncertainty and vulnerability to natural disasters and climate shocks. Improved confidence supported industry and service sector growth, even as agriculture growth underperformed, in part due to adverse weather and pest infestations. While favourable, the economic outlook has been tempered by recent floods, which have resulted in a significant impact on people and damage to urban areas and agricultural land."
Morning News: PM heads to Riyadh for investment summit today – By HMFS Research

Oct 27 2025


HMFS Research


  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will depart for Saudi Arabia today to attend the ninth edition of the two-day Future Investment Initiative (FII9), where he is expected to meet the Saudi leadership as well as leaders from participating countries to advance “economic diplomacy”. According to the Prime Minister’s Office, the premier is leading a high-level delegation to Riyadh from Oct 27 to 29 to participate in the event at the invitation of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
  • Pakistan’s central bank is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 11 per cent on Monday, a Reuters poll showed, as analysts said flood-driven food inflation and a low base effect are likely to limit the scope for further monetary easing. All 10 analysts surveyed expect the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to keep the policy rate unchanged, extending its pause as recent floods ravaged farmland and border closures with Afghanistan drove up prices of staples like tomatoes and apples.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Bulls Lose Steam as Profit-Taking Dominates the Session – By HMFS Research

Oct 23 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) opened on a positive note, with the benchmark KSE-100 index gaining a modest 167 points in early trade. However, the initial momentum proved short-lived as profit-taking set in, pushing the index deep into the red zone. The market touched an intraday low of 2,158 points, reflecting investor caution ahead of the upcoming corporate results season. Global cues also weighed on sentiment, as weakness across international markets dampened risk appetite. Despite the volatility, the index managed to hold within a rangebound zone, ultimately closing the session at 164,590 points, down 1,963 points from the previous close. Trading activity remained robust, driven by investors capitalizing on elevated valuations to realize gains.
  • The KSE-100 index recorded 485mn shares traded, while total market volumes stood at 1.5bn shares. WTL (162mn), KEL (138mn) and TELE (91mn) emerged as volume leaders for the day. Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain rangebound in the near term, reflecting broader global volatility. Sentiment could, however, find support upon the anticipated approval of the IMF tranche and further strengthening of macroeconomic indicators. Moreover, the ongoing corporate earnings season may trigger selective buying in fundamentally strong scrips, particularly those expected to deliver resilient results. Investors are advised to adopt a cautious yet strategic stance, focusing on long-term growth stories while remaining vigilant amid short-term fluctuations.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Momentum Builds as Economic Stability Fuels Market Gains – By HMFS Research

Oct 21 2025


HMFS Research


  • Bullish momentum carried through at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Tuesday, as the benchmark KSE-100 Index surged over 2,172 points during intraday trading amid renewed investor optimism. Buying interest was pronounced across key sectors including banks, fertilizers, and energy, buoyed by improving macro indicators and institutional participation. Sentiment was further lifted by the government’s successful Staff-Level Agreement (SLA) with the IMF, anticipation ahead of the ongoing results season, and news of the first privatization move — the sell-off of First Women Bank. The index eventually settled around the 167,346 level, closing up by nearly 1,103 points.
  • Turnover remained robust, with volumes of ~1bn shares on the KSE-100 Index and ~1.81bn shares on the All-Share Index. Actively traded names included KEL (547mn), WTL (260mn), and BOP (128mn). Adding to the positive backdrop, Pakistan recorded a current account surplus of USD 110mn in September, reversing the previous month’s deficit of USD 325mn — a development that further reinforced confidence in external sector stability. We expect near-term momentum to persist as investors position ahead of major corporate earnings. That said, intermittent profit-taking cannot be ruled out after the recent rally. We advise clients to maintain exposure in fundamentally strong blue-chip names, while selectively realizing gains in overbought counters.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Volatility Persists: KSE-100 Slips 1,300 Points – By HMFS Research

Oct 17 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market remained volatile today, trading largely in the red as sentiment oscillated between optimism and caution. The downside was primarily driven by escalating Pakistan–Afghanistan geopolitical tensions, which unsettled investors and triggered broad-based profit-taking. Further pressure emerged after Finance Minister highlighted that recent floods affecting vast agricultural areas could weigh on economic growth this year, amplifying concerns over near-term fundamentals. Consequently, the KSE-100 Index extended its decline, closing 639 points lower at 163,806 level, marking a sharp correction on the last trading session.
  • The KSE-100 index recorded 500mn shares traded, while overall market volumes surged to 1.98bn shares. WTL (891mn), KEL (263mn), and BOP (84mn) emerged as the day’s top volume leaders. Looking ahead, market fundamentals remain robust, underpinned by improving macroeconomic indicators, the anticipated IMF inflow, and ongoing bilateral engagements with key partners. The onset of the quarterly results season is also expected to provide fresh upward momentum to the index. While intermittent volatility and profit-taking may emerge—particularly if geopolitical tensions intensify—the overall sentiment remains constructive. Investors are advised to maintain a balanced and fundamentals-driven approach, focusing on companies with resilient earnings and sustainable growth prospects, while staying mindful of short-term market shifts.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 Wavers Amid Profit-Taking and Volatility – By HMFS Research

Oct 16 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile trading session, oscillating between optimism and caution as investors weighed short-term gains against the broader economic outlook. The benchmark opened on a positive note, climbing 1,179 points intraday, driven by renewed optimism over the anticipated USD 1.2bn IMF tranche disbursement expected later this week. However, the bullish momentum faded as investors chose to book profits at higher levels, pulling the market into negative territory by the session’s close. The index ultimately settled at 164,445, down 1,242 points from the previous close. The Fertilizer and Technology sectors were the key laggards, exerting downward pressure on the benchmark.
  • Despite the correction, trading activity remained exceptionally strong, reflecting sustained investor engagement. The KSE-100 index recorded 1.39bn shares traded, while overall market volumes surged to 3.08bn shares, marking one of the highest turnover sessions in PSX history. KEL (1.02bn), WTL (953.71mn), and TELE (99.87mn) emerged as the day’s top volume leaders. Looking ahead, market fundamentals remain intact, supported by positive macroeconomic developments, including the expected IMF inflow and ongoing bilateral discussions with key allies. While intermittent volatility and short-term profit taking phases may persist, the underlying sentiment stays constructive. Investors are advised to adopt a balanced approach, focusing on fundamentally sound stocks with long-term growth potential while remaining attentive to near-term market dynamics.