Pakistan Economy: Geo-politics outweigh fundamentals – By JS Research

Nov 3 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index corrected 7% from its recent peak, closing 2.3% lower MoM – its first decline after five months of MoM gains. Profit-taking by insurance companies, mutual funds, and foreign investors led to net selling of US$104mn amid geopolitical unrest. Notably, border tensions with Afghanistan weighed on sentiment, though markets recovered slightly following a ceasefire. Despite strong corporate results and IMF Staff level agreement, external political concerns overshadowed the positive developments. Top gainers included AKBL (+16%), ABL (+8%), ILP (+7%), and FFC (+6%), while trading volumes rose 7% MoM in Oct-2025.
  • Oil prices (WTI) fell to a 5month low in October, closing at US$61/bbl, being the 3rd consecutive monthly decline. The drop was driven by supply-side concerns as OPEC members increased output and US production reached record levels. Meanwhile, the PKR/US$ appreciated by 0.1% MoM, closing at 280.91 – a 6 month high on the back of strong inflows. We believe the continuation of such trend could help in easing pressure on import bill and inflation.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Nov 3 2025


Vector Securities


  • Evening Note.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Nov 3 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index extended its bullish momentum from the previous session, reaching an intraday high of 162,803.15 before settling at 161,631.73, up by 1,171.42 points (0.72%).
  • Investor confidence strengthened amid easing rollover week pressure and a calmer political environment. Sustained buying interest across key sectors including Automobile Assemblers, Cement, Commercial Banks, Fertilizer, Oil & Gas Exploration, OMCs, Power Generation, and Refinery fueled the market’s upward momentum. On the macroeconomic front, Pakistan’s headline inflation for October 2025 came in at 6.2% YoY, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday, slightly above the Ministry of Finance’s projected range of 5–6%. Major contributors to the index included FFC, ENGRO, NBP, HUBC, and TRG, collectively adding 1,131.47 points to the benchmark. HASCOL led the volume chart with 119.51 million shares traded, while overall market turnover stood at 947.85 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note – By IIS Research

Nov 3 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a positive note, with momentum supported by easing rollover week pressure and a relatively stable political backdrop. Trading volumes decreased to 353mn shares today as compared to 409mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 1,171 points to close at 162,803 level, up by 0.72% DoD. Fertilizer, Power Generation & Distribution, and Oil & Gas Exploration Companies sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 751 points to the index.
Pakistan Markets: TEL and TNTPL achieve project completion; HUBC and FFC to be beneficiaries – By AKD Research

Nov 3 2025


AKD Securities


  • Hub Power Company (HUBC) has announced that lenders of Thar Energy Limited (TEL) and ThalNova Power Thar (TN) have formally declared Project Completion Date (PCD) for both 330MW Thar-based coal IPPs as of Oct 31, 2025. With PCD achieved, both projects are now eligible to commence dividend payouts, HUBC holds 60% in TEL and 38.3% in TN. Notably, TEL achieved COD in Oct'22, while TNTPL reached COD in Feb'23, compared to the targeted COD date of Mar'21 for both plants.
  • Notably, we have already incorporated gross dividend assumptions of ~PkR3.0/5.0 per share for both TEL and TNTPL in FY26/27E.
Pakistan Economy: Geo-politics outweigh fundamentals – By JS Research

Nov 3 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index corrected 7% from its recent peak, closing 2.3% lower MoM – its first decline after five months of MoM gains. Profit-taking by insurance companies, mutual funds, and foreign investors led to net selling of US$104mn amid geopolitical unrest. Notably, border tensions with Afghanistan weighed on sentiment, though markets recovered slightly following a ceasefire. Despite strong corporate results and IMF Staff level agreement, external political concerns overshadowed the positive developments. Top gainers included AKBL (+16%), ABL (+8%), ILP (+7%), and FFC (+6%), while trading volumes rose 7% MoM in Oct-2025.
  • Oil prices (WTI) fell to a 5month low in October, closing at US$61/bbl, being the 3rd consecutive monthly decline. The drop was driven by supply-side concerns as OPEC members increased output and US production reached record levels. Meanwhile, the PKR/US$ appreciated by 0.1% MoM, closing at 280.91 – a 6 month high on the back of strong inflows. We believe the continuation of such trend could help in easing pressure on import bill and inflation.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Rebounds amidst good volumes – By AKD Research

Nov 3 2025


AKD Securities


  • The index opened on a positive note and maintained strong bullish momentum throughout the session. It hit an intraday high of 5,461 points before ending with a substantial gain of 4,899 points at 161,632. Market activity improved modestly, with trading volumes rising by 8% compared to the previous session. A large bullish candle formed on the chart, indicating strong upward sentiment as the index closed significantly above its opening level reinforcing the strength of underlying support. Over the last 10 trading sessions, the index has recorded 3 positive and 7 negative closings, resulting in a net of 4 negative sessions.
  • Technically, the immediate support is seen at 161,100 and a breach below this could extend the decline toward 160,700 and 159,700. Conversely, resistance is expected around 161,800, followed by 162,500 and 163,100. It is recommended to accumulate positions near support zone with risk defined closing below it.
Morning News: Oil extends gains after OPEC+ pauses Q1 output hikes – By IIS Research

Nov 3 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • Oil prices climbed in early Asian trade on Monday after OPEC+ decided to hold off production hikes in the first quarter of next year, easing rising fears of a supply glut. Brent crude futures rose 47 cents, or 0.73%, to $65.24 a barrel by 2336 GMT after closing 7 cents higher on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $61.43 a barrel, up 45 cents, or 0.74%, after settling up 41 cents in the previous session.
  • The federal government has set ambitious economic targets for the next three years, aiming to raise the GDP growth rate to between 4.2% and 5.7%. Other targets include increasing the size of the national economy to Rs162,513 billion, boosting exports by more than $10 billion, and increasing remittances to a record $44.82 billion.
Morning News: World Bank asks Pakistan to overhaul skewed trade pacts – By Vector Research

Nov 3 2025


Vector Securities


  • The World Bank has asked Pakistan to improve its skewed preferential trade agreements with 10 bilateral partners, ensure a market-determined and flexible exchange rate and push deeper reforms to lower energy and other input costs to turbocharge over three decades of declining exports for sustainable economic growth. (Dawn)
  • The Economic Affairs Division (EAD) has acknowledged that there is no transparent mechanism in place to ensure that loans obtained from the IMF are actually utilised for budgetary support or for maintaining the balance of payments. (BR)
Morning News: Oil extends gains after OPEC+ pauses Q1 output hikes – By Shajar Research

Nov 3 2025


Shajar Capital


  • Oil prices climbed in early Asian trade on Monday after OPEC+ decided to hold off production hikes in the first quarter of next year, easing rising fears of a supply glut. (Reuters)
  • Asian stocks rose on Monday as investors weighed last week's megacap earnings showing significant spending on artificial intelligence, while the dollar held near a three-month high after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers. (Reuters)
Morning News: US signs 10-year defence pact with India: Pentagon chief – By HMFS Research

Nov 3 2025


HMFS Research


  • US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth held talks on Friday with counterparts from China and India, among a series of face-to-face meetings at an ASEAN defence summit in Malaysia as Washington seeks to boost its influence and regional security ties. He also hailed as “a cornerstone for regional stability and deterrence” a new 10-year defence cooperation framework signed with Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh.
  • President Asif Ali Zardari will attend the Second World Summit for Social Development in Qatari capital Doha from November 4 to 6, being held under the auspices of the United Nations General Assembly. According to a statement issued from the President’s Secretariat on Sunday, the summit will bring together world leaders and policymakers to discuss ways of advancing social development, promoting decent work and employment opportunities, as well as strengthening inclusive safety nets.
Pakistan Economy: Geo-politics outweigh fundamentals – By JS Research

Nov 3 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index corrected 7% from its recent peak, closing 2.3% lower MoM – its first decline after five months of MoM gains. Profit-taking by insurance companies, mutual funds, and foreign investors led to net selling of US$104mn amid geopolitical unrest. Notably, border tensions with Afghanistan weighed on sentiment, though markets recovered slightly following a ceasefire. Despite strong corporate results and IMF Staff level agreement, external political concerns overshadowed the positive developments. Top gainers included AKBL (+16%), ABL (+8%), ILP (+7%), and FFC (+6%), while trading volumes rose 7% MoM in Oct-2025.
  • Oil prices (WTI) fell to a 5month low in October, closing at US$61/bbl, being the 3rd consecutive monthly decline. The drop was driven by supply-side concerns as OPEC members increased output and US production reached record levels. Meanwhile, the PKR/US$ appreciated by 0.1% MoM, closing at 280.91 – a 6 month high on the back of strong inflows. We believe the continuation of such trend could help in easing pressure on import bill and inflation.
Pakistan Cements: 1QFY26 in pictures – By JS Research

Oct 31 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We review 1QFY26 performance of the Cement sector in this report with our sample size of 8 companies.
  • Our sample posted a 56% YoY surge in standalone earnings during the quarter, driven by a 17% YoY rise in dispatches, better export prices, and a 56% YoY decline in financial charges amid lower interest rates and deleveraging efforts owing to improved cashflows for cement players.
  • On a QoQ basis, standalone profitability rose 27%, primarily driven by a 7% QoQ increase in dispatches and higher dividend income, e.g. LUCK receiving ~Rs6bn from LEPCL.
Interloop Limited (ILP): Management foresees earnings rebound to continue in FY26-27 – By JS Research

Oct 30 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Interloop Ltd (ILP) management conducted its CBS yesterday where the management discussed the financial performance of 1QFY26/FY25 and the outlook for the company.
  • To recall, the company posted EPS of Rs2.00 for 1QFY26 compared to mere break-even levels of Rs0.16 recorded during 1QFY25, mainly led by decline in losses reported by Apparels plant, improvement in hosiery margins and drop in financial charges.
Engineering: 1QFY26 result previews – By JS Research

Oct 29 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We preview earnings estimates for Mughal Iron and Steel Ltd. (MUGHAL) and Amreli Steels Ltd. (ASTL).
  • We expect MUGHAL to post earnings of Rs455mn, translating in to an EPS of Rs1.4 in 1QFY26 compared to earnings of Rs7mn mainly led by the significant reduction in finance cost amid lower interest rates and borrowing. We do not expect the company to announce any cash dividend.
  • ASTL’s earnings are likely to remain in the negative zone, with an LPS of Rs2.4 during the 1QFY26 compared to a loss of Rs3.3 per share during the same period last year, owing to weak capacity utilization amid working capital constraints.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 expected to test support at the 50-DMA – By JS Research

Oct 29 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Bears continued to dominate the session as KSE-100 index declined by 2,063 points to close at 160,101 level. Volumes stood at 1,019mn shares versus 1,007mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to test support at the 50-DMA that is currently at 158,736 where a fall below that will target the recent low at 157,678 level. Meanwhile, any upside will be restricted at the 30-DMA standing at 163,163 level. The RSI and the MACD have continued to decline, supporting a negative view. We recommend investors to stay cautious at current level. The support and resistance are at 158,810 and 162,386 levels, respectively.
Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT): Unfavourable dynamics weigh on earnings – By JS Research

Oct 21 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Engro Fertilizers Ltd. (EFERT) has underperformed the KSE-100 index by 38% CYTD, mainly led by the unfavorable business dynamics that has adversely impacted the company throughout the year. To recall, the company posted earnings of Rs14bn, down 21% YoY led by the slowdown in sales volume, ongoing discounts, and higher financial charges.
  • The company’s Urea inventory remained elevated, currently hovering around 550k tons owing to subdued local demand. This led to discount offerings in the range of Rs250-325/bag in the outgoing quarter which are still in place. The management in its recently held corporate briefing session apprised that industry’s inventory levels are likely to remain at 1mn tons by year end.
Lucky Cement Ltd (LUCK): 1QFY26 result previews – By JS Research

Oct 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We present 1QFY26 earnings expectations for Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd (MLCF) and Lucky Cement Ltd (LUCK).
  • MLCF is expected to post standalone EPS of Rs2.36 in 1QFY26, reflecting a 2.4x YoY increase, driven by a 17% rise in domestic dispatches, a 5.5ppt improvement in gross margins, and a substantial reduction in finance costs. On a consolidated basis, EPS is projected at Rs2.67, up 2.1x YoY.
  • LUCK, on the other hand, is expected to post 17% YoY growth in standalone profitability in 1QFY26, with EPS estimated at Rs5.25/share, supported by a 10% increase in dispatches and a 2.4ppt YoY improvement in gross margins amid lower coal prices and continued cost efficiencies. On a consolidated basis, EPS is projected at Rs14.65, reflecting a 20% YoY increase.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd (MLCF): 1QFY26 result previews – By JS Research

Oct 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We present 1QFY26 earnings expectations for Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd (MLCF) and Lucky Cement Ltd (LUCK).
  • MLCF is expected to post standalone EPS of Rs2.36 in 1QFY26, reflecting a 2.4x YoY increase, driven by a 17% rise in domestic dispatches, a 5.5ppt improvement in gross margins, and a substantial reduction in finance costs. On a consolidated basis, EPS is projected at Rs2.67, up 2.1x YoY.
  • LUCK, on the other hand, is expected to post 17% YoY growth in standalone profitability in 1QFY26, with EPS estimated at Rs5.25/share, supported by a 10% increase in dispatches and a 2.4ppt YoY improvement in gross margins amid lower coal prices and continued cost efficiencies. On a consolidated basis, EPS is projected at Rs14.65, reflecting a 20% YoY increase.
Tariq Glass Industries Limited (TGL): FY25 Corporate Analyst Briefing – By JS Research

Oct 15 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Tariq Glass Industries Limited (TGL) conducted its corporate briefing today to discuss the FY25 results and outlook. To recall, TGL announced FY25 EPS of Rs27.75, reflecting a 9% YoY increase. The company announced a cash dividend of Rs4/sh alongside the results. We present key takeaways from the briefing session.
  • TGL reported a 9% YoY increase in net earnings during FY25, mainly due to improved pricing, recovery in margins and 31% YoY decline in financial charges. We highlight, TGL recorded Rs915mn one-time gain led by the acquisition of Baluchistan Glass (BGL) last year, thus excluding the impact of this, the recurring PBT is up 37% YoY in FY25.
  • During the year, MMM Holding (50% owned by TGL) converted its long-term debt given to BGL, into equity thus increasing its stake in the company to 94% from 84% and thereby increasing TGL’s indirect stake to 47% from 42% earlier.
Atlas Battery Limited (ATBA): Corporate analyst briefing takeaways – By JS Research

Oct 15 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The company reported a topline of around Rs35bn in FY25, reflecting a 15% YoY decline. The drop is primarily led by a 10% decrease in Atlas Maintenance-Free Battery (AMB) sales volume in the replacement market and a consumer shift from heavy to medium-sized batteries, which carry lower realizations.
  • Accordingly, the management highlighted that the shift in sales mix from heavy to medium-sized batteries has also impacted margins, as gross margins declined 3ppt YoY to 11% in FY25. Going forward, margins are expected to remain under pressure unless heavy battery demand improves.