Pakistan Aluminium Beverage Cans Limited (PABC): Hit hardest by border closure; Reiterate Sell – By JS Research

Dec 5 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Despite several rounds of talks mediated by Qatar and Turkiye, as well as a recent brief dialogue in Saudi Arabia, there has been no progress toward resuming trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan. We are now incorporating a three-month border closure, which reduces our CY25E EPS estimate for Pakistan Aluminium Beverage Can (PABC) by 16% to Rs17.39 and lowers our target price to Rs124 (down 5%).
  • In its recent quarterly report, PABC highlighted its plans to construct a 1.3bn can plant in Afghanistan, with an expected project outlay of US$110mn and a construction timeline of 1.5–2 years. As Afghanistan is a landlocked country, the new project will depend on raw material imports through transit trade with Pakistan.
  • We are closely monitoring developments related to Pak–Afghan border issues and PABC’s investment plans, and will revisit our estimates for the company accordingly. In the meantime, we reiterate our Sell rating on PABC. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that every one-month export suspension implies a 5% negative impact on our CY26E EPS for the company.
Pakistan Aluminium Beverage Cans Limited (PABC): Hit hardest by border closure; Reiterate Sell – By JS Research

Dec 5 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Despite several rounds of talks mediated by Qatar and Turkiye, as well as a recent brief dialogue in Saudi Arabia, there has been no progress toward resuming trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan. We are now incorporating a three-month border closure, which reduces our CY25E EPS estimate for Pakistan Aluminium Beverage Can (PABC) by 16% to Rs17.39 and lowers our target price to Rs124 (down 5%).
  • In its recent quarterly report, PABC highlighted its plans to construct a 1.3bn can plant in Afghanistan, with an expected project outlay of US$110mn and a construction timeline of 1.5–2 years. As Afghanistan is a landlocked country, the new project will depend on raw material imports through transit trade with Pakistan.
  • We are closely monitoring developments related to Pak–Afghan border issues and PABC’s investment plans, and will revisit our estimates for the company accordingly. In the meantime, we reiterate our Sell rating on PABC. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that every one-month export suspension implies a 5% negative impact on our CY26E EPS for the company.
Pakistan Aluminium Beverage Cans Limited (PABC): Seasonal dip in 3Q earnings; Reiterate Sell – By JS Research

Oct 13 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We expect PABC to report 13% YoY jump in EPS for 3QCY25 to Rs5.33, taking 9MCY25E EPS to Rs16.10 (+30% YoY). Increase in earnings is primarily led by recovery in domestic sales as well as exports ahead of upcoming regional expansions.
  • We reiterate our Sell rating for PABC, premised on strong run-up in the stock price, expected decline in earnings from CY27E onwards owing to the normalization of taxes and weaker exports outlook from upcoming expansions in Central Asia. Our revised TP of Rs130, implies 14% downside in the stock price from current levels.
  • With ~50% of PABC’s revenues contributed by exports to Afghanistan, the company’s sales and earnings remain exposed to the risk of cross-border tensions between the two countries.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Dec 12 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index staged a rebound session today, climbing to an intraday high of 170,052.87 before settling at all time high of 169,864.52, up by 1,289.83 points (0.77%). The upward momentum was fuelled by robust buying interest in fertilizer, commercial banks, Technology & Communication, oil and gas exploration companies, OMCs and Cement.
  • On the economic front, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slapped 11 new structural benchmarks (SBs) on Pakistan, including developing and publishing a comprehensive medium-term (3 to 5 years) tax reform strategy, asset declarations of high-level federal civil servants and an action plan to mitigate corruption vulnerabilities in identified departments. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s central bank is expected to retain interest rates at 11% on Monday as analysts push back rate-cut forecasts to late 2026 after the IMF warned inflation risks persist and policy must stay “appropriately tight”. Among major contributors FFC, MCB, SYS, PPL, & HUBC, which collectively added 783.31 points to the benchmark index. HUMNL led volumes with 71.84 million shares; as overall market participation reached 873.03 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Dec 12 2025


Vector Securities


  • Evening Note.
Pakistan Market Wrap: View from the Desk – By JS Research

Dec 12 2025


JS Global Capital


  • PSX rebounded strongly as the KSE 100 Index surged 1,289 points to close at 169,864. The market opened soft but quickly recovered with steady upward momentum. Intraday high touched 170,052, showing strong buying interest. Overall volumes remained healthy at 873mn shares. Optimism returned after yesterday’s pullback, lifting major sectors. Buyers remained dominant throughout the session, driving sustained strength. Near-term outlook stays positive as the market attempts another breakout above170k.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Market Sustains Upward Trajectory Amid Renewed Inflows and Sectoral Developments – By HMFS Research

Dec 12 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index sustained its upward momentum today, with investors displaying renewed optimism on the back of IMF tranche inflows and the World Bank’s approval of a USD 400mn Urban Water and Resilience Project. Sentiment was further reinforced by positive movements in the energy chain, where payments of circular debt provided an additional uplift. Benchmark index touched an intra-day high of 1,478 points before settling at 169,865 points, reflecting a gain of 1,290 points. Market participation remained healthy, with 310mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and overall market volumes reaching 872mn shares.
  • The most actively traded scrips included HUMNL (72mn), DSL (47mn), and WTL (41mn). On the policy front, the IMF has proposed 11 new structural benchmarks aimed at strengthening tax administration and reducing systemic leakages. As discussions continue, the clarity and trajectory of these reforms are likely to guide near-term market direction. Additionally, the MPC meeting scheduled for December 15 is expected to retain the policy rate at 11%. While a status quo stance aligns with market expectations, any deviation would shape the market accordingly. Overall, the improving macroeconomic backdrop and steady progress on policy measures are expected to keep the market supported. Investors are advised to maintain a vigilant stance and allocate capital toward fundamentally strong, long-term growth stories.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 169,865 up 1,290 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Dec 12 2025


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market opened on a strong note and maintained its momentum throughout the session. The KSE-100 Index touched an intraday high of 170,053 and a low of 168,422, before settling at 169,865—up 1,290 points. Trading activity remained healthy, with 310 million shares changing hands and an estimated turnover of PKR 27 billion.
  • Major contributors to the index’s gain included FFC (up 2.2%, adding 372 points), MCB (3%, 150 points), SYS (2.3%, 116 points), PPL (1.5%, 74 points), and HUBC (1.1%, 72 points). In terms of volumes, HUMNL and SSGC led the market with 71.8 million and 31.1 million shares traded, respectively.
Pakistan Economy: SBP Expected to keep Policy Rate unchanged at 11% – By AHCML Research

Dec 12 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The State Bank of Pakistan's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is highly anticipated to maintain the policy rate unchanged at 11% in its upcoming meeting on December 15, 2025. This decision is driven by a complex mix of opposing economic forces. Significant upside risks to inflation from recent flood disruptions is the primary culprits. However, this is countered by strengthening external sector stability, evidenced by a strong forex reserves level along with massive foreign inflows from international financial institutions. Along with stable PKR and a rebound in industrial activity, with the LSM index growing at 4.08%YoY in 1QFY26. The MPC is expected to prioritize anchoring inflation expectations while leveraging the improved external position to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach, assessing the full impact of the flood-induced economic disruptions before making any policy rate cut.
Pakistan Economy: IMF: Further reforms needed – By Foundation Research

Dec 12 2025


Foundation Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released the detailed report upon approval by its Executive Board of the 2nd review of the USD 7.0Bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and 1st review of the USD 1.3Bn Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The IMF report cited the governments’ strong program implementation as 6 of 7 quantitative criteria, 4 of 8 indicative targets, and most continuous and other structural benchmarks were met at end-June 2025. This has maintained stability and improved financing and external conditions.
  • Pakistan’s 37-month EFF was approved on September 25, 2024, and aims to build resilience and enable sustainable growth. The program’s priorities remain centered on (i) entrenching macroeconomic stability through consistent implementation of sound macro policies, including rebuilding international reserve buffers and broadening the tax base; (ii) advancing reforms to strengthen competition and raise productivity and competitiveness; and (iii) reforming SOEs and improving public service provision, developing human and physical capital, and restoring energy sector viability.
Pakistan Economy: IMF releases staff report following review completion – By JS Research

Dec 12 2025


JS Global Capital


  • A detailed Staff report has been released by IMF, following IMF Executive Board’s approval of the second review for the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Completion of the second EFF review has made available SDR 760mn (about US$1bn) bringing total disbursements to US$3.3bn (SDR 2,434mn) including US$200mn (SDR 154mn) under the RSF.
  • IMF’s key priorities include cementing macroeconomic stability through consistent implementation of sound macro policies, including rebuilding international reserve buffers, and broadening the tax base implementation of reforms to boost market competition, enhance productivity & competitiveness, reform state-owned enterprises (SOEs), improve the delivery of public services and ensure the financial viability of the energy sector.
Automobile Assemblers: Nov’25: Passenger Vehicle Sales down 11%MoM – By Taurus Research

Dec 12 2025


Taurus Securities


  • According to data from the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturing Association (PAMA), automobile sales in Nov’25 showed a de crease of 11%MoM in volumes for Passenger Cars, Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs), and Jeeps, totaling 15,420 units. Moreover, on a yearly basis sales experienced a 53% surge as compared to the SPLY. INDU’s market share marginally decreased by 1ppts MoM to 25%, while HCAR’s share improved 2ppts to 17%. Hyundai’s market share remained unchanged, whereas SAZEW’s share marginally decreased~ 1% to 7%. Meanwhile, PSMC’s market share remained stable at 43%. Moreover, 5MFY26 car sales rose 48%YoY to 74,835 units compared to 50,669 units sold last year.
  • The yearly growth in sales during Nov’25 can be attributed to several factors, stable inflation, fuel prices, interest rates and dis counted car prices along with the release of new variants. Moreover, the MoM decrease in auto sales was led by decrease in volumes for PSMC, INDU, Hyundai, SAZEW, GAL and DFML and increase in GHNI reflecting strong competition between the companies in the market. This results in a mixed performance that limits overall growth. Going forward, easing inflation and declining interest rates are expected to support demand recovery, partially offsetting the negative impact of the recent fiscal measures.
Morning News: Pakistan receives $1.2bn from IMF, confirms SBP – By HMFS Research

Dec 12 2025


HMFS Research


  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday said it has received about $1.2 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The amount would be reflected in SBP’s foreign exchange reserves for the week ending 12 December 2025, which are expected to be published next week, it added.
  • The IMF has imposed 11 new structural benchmarks on Pakistan to strengthen fiscal management, governance, and sectoral reforms after noting that the country met 8 of 13 earlier targets. These new benchmarks require the government to finalize an FBR reform roadmap, publish a medium-term tax reform strategy, and enhance transparency by making senior civil servants’ asset declarations public and issuing an action plan to address corruption risks. Additional conditions include studies and action plans to lower remittance costs, boost FX inflows, and develop the local currency bond market. The IMF also demands progress on energy sector reforms by preparing HESCO and SEPCO for private sector participation, signing PSO agreements with major SOEs to improve transparency, and adopting a national sugar market liberalization policy.
Pakistan Market Wrap: View from the Desk – By JS Research

Dec 12 2025


JS Global Capital


  • PSX rebounded strongly as the KSE 100 Index surged 1,289 points to close at 169,864. The market opened soft but quickly recovered with steady upward momentum. Intraday high touched 170,052, showing strong buying interest. Overall volumes remained healthy at 873mn shares. Optimism returned after yesterday’s pullback, lifting major sectors. Buyers remained dominant throughout the session, driving sustained strength. Near-term outlook stays positive as the market attempts another breakout above170k.
Pakistan Economy: IMF releases staff report following review completion – By JS Research

Dec 12 2025


JS Global Capital


  • A detailed Staff report has been released by IMF, following IMF Executive Board’s approval of the second review for the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Completion of the second EFF review has made available SDR 760mn (about US$1bn) bringing total disbursements to US$3.3bn (SDR 2,434mn) including US$200mn (SDR 154mn) under the RSF.
  • IMF’s key priorities include cementing macroeconomic stability through consistent implementation of sound macro policies, including rebuilding international reserve buffers, and broadening the tax base implementation of reforms to boost market competition, enhance productivity & competitiveness, reform state-owned enterprises (SOEs), improve the delivery of public services and ensure the financial viability of the energy sector.
Shifa International Hospitals Ltd (SHFA): Expansion phase resumes; earnings strengthen – By JS Research

Dec 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Shifa International Hospitals Ltd (SHFA) held its analyst briefing to review its FY25 performance and outline the growth trajectory ahead. The company posted earnings of Rs2.3bn for the year, a 71% increase YoY, taking EPS to Rs36.84.
  • Management explained that the group has completed its consolidation phase and has now entered a new cycle of expansion.
  • The ongoing projects include Shifa National Hospital Faisalabad (Pvt.) Ltd (SNHF), Shifa Medical Centre Islamabad (Pvt.) Ltd (SMCI) and SIHT (Pvt.) Ltd, each intended to strengthen the group’s presence across key cities.
  • The upcoming SNHF facility is expected to begin operations by 4QFY26. Management anticipates the hospital will reach break-even within three years and turn profitable in the fourth year, with net margins projected at 7 to 8%.
Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL): Engulfing Bull on weekly chart – By JS Research

Dec 8 2025


JS Global Capital


  • PRL is picking up momentum as the interim resistance lies within 38-39 range where a break above that will confirm the start of a bullish move. An Engulfing Bull has occurred on weekly chart with the MACD Buy signal. Also, the PRL is trading above key averages keeping the trend bullish. The short term target is expected at 45.7 which may later rise to 52.5 which is defined as the medium term target for PRL. The said levels will provide a return of 21% and 39% from the current close. The short term risk is defined below 33.8 (200-DMA), while a fall below 30.1 will invalidate the above view.
Pakistan Market Wrap: View from the Desk – By JS Research

Dec 5 2025


JS Global Capital


  • PSX closed on a strong note as the KSE-100 Index gained 802 points to settle at 167,085, rebounding sharply after recent pressure. The index traded between166,369 and 167,923, showing resilience amid selective buying. Total volume stood at 687mn shares, indicating renewed investor participation. E&P and fertilizer sectors drove the rally, while sentiment remained supported by optimism over economic stability. The near-term outlook stays positive with potential testing of 168k resistance.
Pakistan Aluminium Beverage Cans Limited (PABC): Hit hardest by border closure; Reiterate Sell – By JS Research

Dec 5 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Despite several rounds of talks mediated by Qatar and Turkiye, as well as a recent brief dialogue in Saudi Arabia, there has been no progress toward resuming trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan. We are now incorporating a three-month border closure, which reduces our CY25E EPS estimate for Pakistan Aluminium Beverage Can (PABC) by 16% to Rs17.39 and lowers our target price to Rs124 (down 5%).
  • In its recent quarterly report, PABC highlighted its plans to construct a 1.3bn can plant in Afghanistan, with an expected project outlay of US$110mn and a construction timeline of 1.5–2 years. As Afghanistan is a landlocked country, the new project will depend on raw material imports through transit trade with Pakistan.
  • We are closely monitoring developments related to Pak–Afghan border issues and PABC’s investment plans, and will revisit our estimates for the company accordingly. In the meantime, we reiterate our Sell rating on PABC. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that every one-month export suspension implies a 5% negative impact on our CY26E EPS for the company.
Automobile Assemblers: Volumes rebound YoY despite MoM pullback – By JS Research

Dec 4 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We expect, the three major auto players including Indus Motor Company Ltd (INDU), Honda Atlas Cars Ltd (HCAR) and Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd to post a cumulative growth of 50% YoY to ~13k units in Nov-2025. On a MoM basis, volumes are likely to decline by 10%, mainly due to drop in Pak Suzuki sales.
  • INDU and HCAR are expected to rise 75% and 135% YoY, respectively, while Pak Suzuki volumes are likely to increase 23% YoY (-11% MoM). Overall, auto sales for our sample companies are projected to post 46% YoY growth in 5MFY26, with broad-based strength across all three major OEMs.
  • Rising auto financing (+34% YoY in Oct-2025), alongside tighter IMF-driven restrictions on tax-free import schemes for overseas Pakistanis, are expected to support local assemblers. However, as average tariffs on imported cars gradually decline, the industry may face heightened competition in the long run.
Pakistan Fertilizers: Strong Urea sales likely in Nov-2025 – By JS Research

Dec 3 2025


JS Global Capital


  • As per the provisional figures, Urea off-take during the month of Nov-2025 is likely to post a significant growth of 25% YoY, clocking in at 817k tons. On the other hand, DAP off-take is likely to be down 14% YoY for the month. Cumulatively, Urea industry off-take to clock in at 5.4mn tons in 11MCY25, down 4% YoY.
  • Specifically, FFC is expected to report sales volume of 387k tons, up 37% YoY which includes 77k tons of granular Urea. EFERT, on the other hand, is likely to report sales of 269k tons (+39%YoY). While FATIMA is likely to report a volume of 125k tons, flattish on a YoY basis.
  • Continuation of discounts on Urea remained intact during the month, with FFC offering discount of up to Rs100/bag and EFERT’s discount of up to Rs350/bag. Inventory levels likely to drop to 1.15mn tons as of Nov-2025, which we expect to drop further to 0.8-0.9mn tons by the end of CY25 led by higher demand during Dec-2025 as well as turnaround at FFC plant-II.
Oil Marketing Companies (OMC): 10% YoY decline in Nov-2025 sales – By JS Research

Dec 2 2025


JS Global Capital


  • OMC sales volume clocked in at 1.4mn tons, down 10% on a YoY basis during Nov-2025. On a product-wise basis, Motor Spirit (MS) volume dropped 9% YoY, Hi-Speed Diesel (HSD) volume decreased 13% YoY, whereas Furnace Oil (FO) sales dropped 32% YoY during the month. Cumulatively, OMC sales volumes recorded a 1% YoY growth during 5MFY26.
  • PSO’s market share has stabilized recently, rising to 45% in Nov-2025, its highest level in nearly a year versus the 41–43% range over the past 10 months.
  • We estimate PDL collection for 5MFY26 to be around Rs642bn. We believe that with elevated rates of levy for MS & HSD, the annual target is likely to be achieved at sticky volumes.
Pakistan Economy: Taking 11MCY25 gains to 45% YoY – By JS Research

Dec 1 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Lack of triggers and ongoing unrest between Pakistan and Afghanistan kept KSE-100 performance restricted in Nov-2025, with the index posting 3% MoM gains. Foreign investors remained net sellers, while individuals and banks were net buyers. PIOC (+64% MoM) and MLCF (+10%) were among the best performers, following MLCF’s announcement of its intention to acquire 58% stake in PIOC. FFC also gained 20% MoM on its inclusion in the KMI-30 Index. Conversely, PABC was the worst-performing stock, losing 15% MoM due to its more than 50% revenue exposure to Afghanistan.
  • In its quarterly review, MSCI added MEBL, BOP, and AKBL to the MSCI Frontier Market Index (MSCI FM), along with 11 additions and one deletion in the MSCI FM Small Caps Index, bringing the total count of Pakistani constituents to 106.
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