Pakistan Economy: MPC statement & analyst briefing takeaways – By Insight Research

Dec 15 2025


Insight Securities


  • In today’s MPC meeting, SBP has reduced the policy rate by 50bps to 10.5%. The decision came as surprise to many but remain in line with demands of business community who were asking the authorities to reduce policy rate amid challenging business environment. The committee highlighted that average inflation remained in line with SBP’s target range. While core inflation remains sticky. Economic activity has also recorded an uptick as evident by economic indicators. They also highlighted that despite improvement in macro framework, uncertain global prices can impact the macroeconomic outlook particularly exports.
  • Key developments highlighted by the MPC includes increase in unemployment rate in Labor Force Survey 2024-25 despite higher growth in overall employment compared to previous survey, increase in SBP’s FX reserves even after debt repayment, improvement in consumer confidence, healthy primary surplus on the back of SBP profit and fluid global environment.
Oil Marketing Companies (OMC): OMC sales up 6% YoY and down 5% MoM in Dec 2025;1HFY26 sales up 2% YoY – By Topline Research

Jan 2 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan's Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) recorded sales of 1.35mn tons in Dec 2025, up 6% YoY and down 5% MoM.
  • The YoY increase is due to economic recovery, lower inflation, and control of smuggling, whereas the MoM decrease in sales is attributable to the strike by transporters. To highlight, Transporters went on a nationwide strike on Dec 08, 2025 which continued for 10 days.
  • This takes total sales for 1HFY26 to 8.2mn tons, reflecting a 2% YoY increase compared to 8.02mn tons in 1HFY25.
Pakistan Fertilizers: Pakistan’s Urea sales for Dec 2025 at all time high of 1,356k tons; Inventory at 0.31mn tons – By Topline Research

Jan 2 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Urea sales in Dec 2025 is anticipated to clock in at all time high of 1,356k tons, up by 65% MoM and 37% YoY amid push sales from company/dealers through higher discounts offerings. This takes 2025 urea offtakes to 6.73mn tons, up 2% YoY compared to 6.57mn tons in 2024, respectively. To note, in 11M2025, urea sales was down 4%.
  • As per our checks, EFERT has maintained discount around Rs400/bag during the month of Dec 2025. However, this discount was rolled back to Rs150 /bag at the start of the new year. Similarly, FFC also offered discount of Rs 150–200 per bag during the same period.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue – By JS Research

Jan 2 2026


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index showed positive movement to close at 176,355 level, up 2,301 points. Volumes stood at 1,403mn shares versus 957mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to revisit yesterday's high of 176,658 where a break above that will continue the uptrend towards 180,500 level. However, any downside will find support between 174,430 and 175,820 levels, respectively. The RSI and the MACD have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to 'Buy on dips', with risk defined below 174,437 level. The support and resistance are at 174,976 and 177,197 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Oil edges higher following biggest annual loss since 2020 - By Shajar Research

Jan 2 2026


Shajar Capital


  • Oil prices edged up on the first day of trade in 2026 after last year posting their biggest annual loss since 2020, as Ukrainian drones targeted Russian oil facilities and a U.S. blockade pressured Venezuela's exports. (Reuters)
  • Stocks kicked off the new year on a positive note, with Asian shares and US equity-index futures advancing, while precious metals rebounded after a soft finish to 2025. (Bloomberg)
Morning News: Urgent need to fast-track govt’s ambitious economic reforms: PM - By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 2 2026


Alpha Capital


  • In a forceful kick-off to 2026, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday directed that ministries take immediate and decisive action, underscoring the urgent need to fast-track the government’s ambitious economic reforms aimed at steering the country’s faltering economy back on track.
  • In a bold move to tackle the country’s crippling energy crisis, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thurs day called for an urgent and aggressive push to explore and extract new oil and gas reserves, warning that continued reliance on costly petroleum imports is unsustainable.
Morning News: T-bills attract $20m in net foreign inflows - By Vector Research

Jan 2 2026


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s short-term local government bonds saw net foreign inflows of $20 million in December, compared with $42.2 million in outflows recorded in the previous month. Overseas investors poured $77.29 million in treasury bills as of December 25 but divested $57.27 million, data from the State Bank of Pakistan showed on Thursday. (The News)
  • Pakistan will benefit from a technical assistance approved by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) that will support member countries in systematically shaping future sustainable transport investments. (Dawn)
Morning News: Inflation in Pakistan clocks in at 5.6% in December 2025: - By HMFS Research

Jan 2 2026


HMFS Research


  • Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 5.6% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in December 2025, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Thursday, a reading in line with the Ministry of Finance estimate of 5.5-6.5%. The consumer price index (CPI) was recorded at 6.1% in November 2025. The CPI stood at 4.1% in December 2024. On a month-on-month basis, it decreased by 0.4% in December 2025, as compared to an increase of 0.4% in the previous month and an increase of 0.1% in December 2024. This takes the 6MFY26 inflation reading at 5.15% against 7.22% in 6MFY25.
  • In a bold move to tackle the country’s crippling energy crisis, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday called for an urgent and aggressive push to explore and extract new oil and gas reserves, warning that continued reliance on costly petroleum imports is unsustainable. harif made it clear that Pakistan must shift its focus towards domestic energy production or risk deeper economic challenges. “We can no longer afford to rely on expensive imports,” he stated, underscoring the need for swift action. He also called for a digital overhaul of the oil and gas supply chain, from importation to the end consumer, highlighting how this will not only increase efficiency but also tackle the rampant smuggling of petroleum products. The meeting was briefed on recent developments in the oil and gas sector, with officials highlighting a significant discovery by the Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd. (OGDCL), with an estimated 4,100 barrels of oil set to be extracted daily.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Jan 1 2026


Vector Securities


  • Evening Note.
Pakistan Market Wrap: New Year, New Highs: Bulls Carry Momentum into 2026 – By HMFS Research

Jan 1 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index scaled fresh highs at the start of the new calendar year, extending its bullish run as the benchmark touched an intra-day peak of 176,658. Momentum remained firmly intact throughout the session, underpinned by easing inflationary pressures—December 2025 CPI came in at 5.6%—alongside a reduction in petroleum prices, which collectively supported risk appetite across equities. The index ultimately closed at 176,355, marking a solid gain of 2,301 points for the day. Sectoral leadership came from Banking and E&P stocks, which provided the bulk of the upward thrust.
  • Market participation was notably strong, with volumes rising to 799mn shares on the KSE-100 and 1.40bn shares across the broader market. Activity was concentrated in KEL (373mn), PIBTL (140mn), and BOP (55mn). Looking ahead, the government’s reform-driven policy framework is anticipated to enhance economic resilience, underpinning investor confidence and supporting equity market expansion. While the prevailing trend remains constructive, elevated valuations at current levels may invite intermittent profit-taking. Nonetheless, sustained interest from investors seeking strategic positioning suggests the market’s broader trajectory remains intact. Investors are advised to remain composed amid short-term fluctuations and focus on fundamentally strong names with long-term growth visibility.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 1 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The benchmark KSE-100 Index posted a strong rebound, surging to an intraday high of 176,658.38 before closing at an all-time high of 176,355.49 and registering a gain of 2,301.17 points (1.32%). The rally was driven by broad- based buying, led primarily by Commercial Banks and Oil & Gas stocks, alongside selective strength in cement, fertilizer, and power sectors.
  • Positive sentiment prevailed on the eve of the new year, with fresh fund allocations for investment plans contributing to the momentum. On the macroeconomic front, headline inflation eased to 5.6%YoY in Dec’25, within the Ministry of Finance’s projected range, while the FBR’s provisional tax collection for the 1HFY26 stood at PKR 6,154 billion, falling short of the target by PKR 336 billion. In terms of index contribution, UBL, OGDC, ENGRO, HBL, and MEBL emerged as key drivers, collectively adding 1,086.27 points to the benchmark. On the volumes front, KEL led activity with 372.71 million shares, while overall market turnover stood at 1,399.85 million shares, reflecting healthy participation
Pakistan Economy: Dec’25 CPI likely to clock in at 5.8% - By Insight Research

Dec 31 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is estimated at ~5.8% for Dec’25, compared to ~4.1% in SPLY and ~6.2% in preceding month. On MoM basis, inflation is expected to fell by ~0.2%. The decline is primarily led by softer food prices, in line with seasonal trend. To highlight, food basket is expected to record a MoM decline of ~1.5%. While, higher Policy rate vs. Inflation 45% 40% 35% 30% LPG price is likely to lift housing index by ~0.4% MoM. This will take 6MFY26 average inflation to 5.2% compared to 7.3% in SPLY. Core inflation is likely to remain sticky at 7.1% and 8.3% for urban and rural baskets, respectively.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, LPG (14.9↑%), Cooking oil (3.1↑%), Eggs (2.2%↑), Chicken (2.1%↑) & Vegetable ghee (1.8%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Tomatoes (51.7%↓), Onions (30.7%↓), Potatoes (18.8%↓), Sugar (9.0%↓) & Pulse gram (3.9%↓).
Pakistan Strategy: Pakistan Investment Strategy – By Insight Research

Dec 19 2025


Insight Securities


  • ‘2026’– Momentum to continue: Pakistan’s equity market continued its phenomenal performance in CY25, extending the strong momentum started in Jun’23. The index has delivered ~49% YTD return, while the cumulative return since Jun’23 stands at an impressive ~315%. We believe the market still offers meaningful upside and the rally is expected to continue into next calendar year where we expect KSE-100 index to reach 213,600 by Dec’26, although in a less broad based manner. Our thesis is supported by i) noticeable stabilization in key economic indicators over recent quarters under IMF’s watch, ii) a sharp decline in policy rate and iii) favorable commodity prices. Furthermore, energy sector reforms have remained a central priority for policymakers as well as the IMF. While significant progress has been made, considerable work still needs to be done. These reform gives us confidence that energy chain will continue to shape the narrative in 2026, with the upstream segment positioned as a primary beneficiary.
  • From an asset allocation standpoint, despite a robust rally and substantial re-rating, PSX continues to offer superior return potential relative to other asset classes. The sharp decline in policy rates has reduced the attractiveness of fixed income instruments, although the gap between equity earnings yields and money market returns has narrowed compared to previous years. Nonetheless, we expect domestic liquidity to remain a key driver for market performance, supported by continued formalization and channeling of household savings into the system. Moreover, successful progress on landmark projects like Reko Diq, along with anticipated FDI inflows into the mining and E&P sectors, is likely to bolster foreign investor participation. From a broader global perspective, downgrade in US growth expectations driven by policy uncertainty and tariff volatility, challenges the narrative of US exceptionalism. In this backdrop, emerging markets may regain investors attention due to their relative resilience. Pakistan, despite being a very small player, could benefit from potential spillovers.
Pakistan Economy: MPC statement & analyst briefing takeaways – By Insight Research

Dec 15 2025


Insight Securities


  • In today’s MPC meeting, SBP has reduced the policy rate by 50bps to 10.5%. The decision came as surprise to many but remain in line with demands of business community who were asking the authorities to reduce policy rate amid challenging business environment. The committee highlighted that average inflation remained in line with SBP’s target range. While core inflation remains sticky. Economic activity has also recorded an uptick as evident by economic indicators. They also highlighted that despite improvement in macro framework, uncertain global prices can impact the macroeconomic outlook particularly exports.
  • Key developments highlighted by the MPC includes increase in unemployment rate in Labor Force Survey 2024-25 despite higher growth in overall employment compared to previous survey, increase in SBP’s FX reserves even after debt repayment, improvement in consumer confidence, healthy primary surplus on the back of SBP profit and fluid global environment.
Roshan Packages Limited (RPL): Analyst briefing takeaways – By Insight Research

Nov 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • RPL posted topline of PKR9.7bn in FY25 vs. PKR10.3bn in SPLY, down by ~6% YoY. Similarly, company’s PAT fell by ~33% YoY mainly due to inflationary pressure and demand contraction. In 1QFY26, company’s revenue recorded an increase of ~28% YoY.
  • Regarding lower gross margins, management mentioned that due to subdued demand company is unable to pass on the inflationary pressure. However, company is focused on increasing its market share.
Oil & Gas Exploration: From caution to conviction – By Insight Research

Nov 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • After several years of stagnation and structural inefficiencies, Pakistan’s upstream oil and gas sector is poised for a long awaited inflection point. The government’s renewed focus on energy sector reforms, particularly pass through of energy tariffs along with emphasis on clearance of accumulated circular debt, has begun to restore optimism across the E&P chain. With meaningful progress visible on both policy and fiscal fronts, the market’s perception of the E&P sector is gradually shifting from caution to conviction.
  • At the same time, companies are taking proactive steps to sustain and enhance production level. Leading E&P companies are ramping up exploration activity, acquiring new blocks and accelerating drillings to secure long term output stability. This is reflected in the sector’s reserves with leading listed E&P companies achieving a reserve replacement ratio of over 100% in FY25.
Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC): Strong earnings with shariah push – By Insight Research

Nov 12 2025


Insight Securities


  • FFC has delivered capital gain of ~29% during CYTD, supported by robust profitability despite weak agronomic conditions. The company’s earnings have been boosted by dividend income from its subsidiaries and associates, generating steady dividend income. Along with this, significant cash reserves also contributes to bottom line by generating other income. The said trend is expected to continue, driven by recurring dividend inflows and an anticipated recovery in offtakes.
  • The combination of robust cashflow generation and strong balance sheet provides FFC with the flexibility to pursue growth opportunities. Company is exploring the feasibility of a Thar coal gasification project, which, if materialized, would provide a reliable and cost-effective feedstock source and potentially enable urea exports. Additionally, the proposed gas supply from Mari Gas Field to FFC’s Port Qasim plant could reduce feedstock costs and enhance margins going forward.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited (MLCF): Analyst briefing takeaways – By Insight Research

Nov 7 2025


Insight Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement Pakistan has conducted its analyst briefing to discuss its financial result and outlook. We have summarized following key takeaways from the briefing.
  • According to the management, company’s retention price stood at PKR15,195/ton in 1QFY26.
  • Regarding demand outlook, management expect a double digit growth in FY26. To note, local demand increased by 18.8% in 4MFY25.
Hub Power Company Limited (HUBC): 1QFY26 EPS clocked in at PKR9.0 – By Insight Research

Oct 30 2025


Insight Securities


  • HUBC has announced its 1QFY26 results wherein the company has posted consolidated PAT of PKR11.6bn (EPS: PKR9.0) vs. PKR19.1bn (EPS: PKR14.7), down by 39% YoY. The result is inline with our expectations.
  • Revenue of the company decreased by 46% YoY, to clock in at PKR17.4bn in 1QFY26, due to termination of base plant and tariff renegotiation of NEL plant. While on QoQ basis, same is down by 7%.
  • Share of profit from associates increased by 4% YoY to clock in at PKR10.8bn.
Pakistan Economy: Oct’25 CPI likely to clock in at 5.8% - By Insight Research

Oct 29 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is estimated at ~5.8% for Oct’25, compared to ~7.2% in SPLY and ~5.6% in preceding month. On MoM basis, inflation is expected to inch up by ~1.4%, primarily driven by a ~2.2% increase in food prices coupled with 1.8% increase in housing index. The increase in food index is mainly led by higher prices of wheat, onion and tomato. While increase in housing index is attributable to quarterly adjustment in house rent coupled with higher FCA.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, Tomato (63.9↑%), Onions (15.7↑%), Wheat flour (6.8%↑), Eggs (5.4%↑) & Fresh vegetables (2.3%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Chicken (23.4%↓), Fresh fruits (12.9%↓), Pulse gram (3.9%↓), Potatoes (3.1%↓) & Pulse moong (1.2%↓).
HUB Power Company Limited (HUBC): 1QCY26 EPS to arrive at PKR8.7 – By Insight Research

Oct 29 2025


Insight Securities


  • We expect HUB power company limited to post EPS of PKR8.7/sh in 1QFY26 vs. EPS of PKR14.7/sh in SPLY and PKR9.2/sh in preceding quarter, down by 41%/5% YoY/QoQ.
  • In1QFY26, power generation clocked in at 40,933 kwh in 1QFY26 vs. 40,546 kwh in 1QFY25, up by 1% YoY. The increase in power generation is attributable to low base effect, shift of captive power consumers to grid amid grid levy and reduction in power tariff.