Pakistan Economy: MPS Surprise 50bps cut in policy rate – By Foundation Research

Dec 15 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Today, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to cut the policy rate by 50bps to 10.5%. The decision was made considering inflation remained within the target range of 5-7% during 5MFY26, despite relatively sticky core inflation. The MPC believes economic activity is gaining traction, driven by improvements in key indicators like large-scale manufacturing. However, global challenges, particularly for exports, may impact the macroeconomic outlook. The MPC noted the available space to reduce the policy rate to support growth on a sustainable basis while maintaining price stability.
  • MPC noted several key developments. The FY25 Labor Force Survey indicates an increase in the unemployment rate from FY21, despite faster employment growth. SBP's FX reserves have risen to USD 15.8Bn, aided by a USD 1.2Bn IMF receipt. Consumer confidence has improved, while business confidence has moderated slightly. The overall and primary fiscal balances recorded surpluses in 1QFY26, led by a sizable SBP profit transfer. Globally, commodity prices are supportive, but financial conditions remain challenging with evolving tariff dynamics.
Oil Marketing Companies (OMC): OMC sales up 6% YoY and down 5% MoM in Dec 2025;1HFY26 sales up 2% YoY – By Topline Research

Jan 2 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan's Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) recorded sales of 1.35mn tons in Dec 2025, up 6% YoY and down 5% MoM.
  • The YoY increase is due to economic recovery, lower inflation, and control of smuggling, whereas the MoM decrease in sales is attributable to the strike by transporters. To highlight, Transporters went on a nationwide strike on Dec 08, 2025 which continued for 10 days.
  • This takes total sales for 1HFY26 to 8.2mn tons, reflecting a 2% YoY increase compared to 8.02mn tons in 1HFY25.
Pakistan Fertilizers: Pakistan’s Urea sales for Dec 2025 at all time high of 1,356k tons; Inventory at 0.31mn tons – By Topline Research

Jan 2 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Urea sales in Dec 2025 is anticipated to clock in at all time high of 1,356k tons, up by 65% MoM and 37% YoY amid push sales from company/dealers through higher discounts offerings. This takes 2025 urea offtakes to 6.73mn tons, up 2% YoY compared to 6.57mn tons in 2024, respectively. To note, in 11M2025, urea sales was down 4%.
  • As per our checks, EFERT has maintained discount around Rs400/bag during the month of Dec 2025. However, this discount was rolled back to Rs150 /bag at the start of the new year. Similarly, FFC also offered discount of Rs 150–200 per bag during the same period.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue – By JS Research

Jan 2 2026


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index showed positive movement to close at 176,355 level, up 2,301 points. Volumes stood at 1,403mn shares versus 957mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to revisit yesterday's high of 176,658 where a break above that will continue the uptrend towards 180,500 level. However, any downside will find support between 174,430 and 175,820 levels, respectively. The RSI and the MACD have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to 'Buy on dips', with risk defined below 174,437 level. The support and resistance are at 174,976 and 177,197 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Oil edges higher following biggest annual loss since 2020 - By Shajar Research

Jan 2 2026


Shajar Capital


  • Oil prices edged up on the first day of trade in 2026 after last year posting their biggest annual loss since 2020, as Ukrainian drones targeted Russian oil facilities and a U.S. blockade pressured Venezuela's exports. (Reuters)
  • Stocks kicked off the new year on a positive note, with Asian shares and US equity-index futures advancing, while precious metals rebounded after a soft finish to 2025. (Bloomberg)
Morning News: Urgent need to fast-track govt’s ambitious economic reforms: PM - By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 2 2026


Alpha Capital


  • In a forceful kick-off to 2026, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday directed that ministries take immediate and decisive action, underscoring the urgent need to fast-track the government’s ambitious economic reforms aimed at steering the country’s faltering economy back on track.
  • In a bold move to tackle the country’s crippling energy crisis, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thurs day called for an urgent and aggressive push to explore and extract new oil and gas reserves, warning that continued reliance on costly petroleum imports is unsustainable.
Morning News: T-bills attract $20m in net foreign inflows - By Vector Research

Jan 2 2026


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s short-term local government bonds saw net foreign inflows of $20 million in December, compared with $42.2 million in outflows recorded in the previous month. Overseas investors poured $77.29 million in treasury bills as of December 25 but divested $57.27 million, data from the State Bank of Pakistan showed on Thursday. (The News)
  • Pakistan will benefit from a technical assistance approved by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) that will support member countries in systematically shaping future sustainable transport investments. (Dawn)
Morning News: Inflation in Pakistan clocks in at 5.6% in December 2025: - By HMFS Research

Jan 2 2026


HMFS Research


  • Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 5.6% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in December 2025, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Thursday, a reading in line with the Ministry of Finance estimate of 5.5-6.5%. The consumer price index (CPI) was recorded at 6.1% in November 2025. The CPI stood at 4.1% in December 2024. On a month-on-month basis, it decreased by 0.4% in December 2025, as compared to an increase of 0.4% in the previous month and an increase of 0.1% in December 2024. This takes the 6MFY26 inflation reading at 5.15% against 7.22% in 6MFY25.
  • In a bold move to tackle the country’s crippling energy crisis, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday called for an urgent and aggressive push to explore and extract new oil and gas reserves, warning that continued reliance on costly petroleum imports is unsustainable. harif made it clear that Pakistan must shift its focus towards domestic energy production or risk deeper economic challenges. “We can no longer afford to rely on expensive imports,” he stated, underscoring the need for swift action. He also called for a digital overhaul of the oil and gas supply chain, from importation to the end consumer, highlighting how this will not only increase efficiency but also tackle the rampant smuggling of petroleum products. The meeting was briefed on recent developments in the oil and gas sector, with officials highlighting a significant discovery by the Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd. (OGDCL), with an estimated 4,100 barrels of oil set to be extracted daily.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Jan 1 2026


Vector Securities


  • Evening Note.
Pakistan Market Wrap: New Year, New Highs: Bulls Carry Momentum into 2026 – By HMFS Research

Jan 1 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index scaled fresh highs at the start of the new calendar year, extending its bullish run as the benchmark touched an intra-day peak of 176,658. Momentum remained firmly intact throughout the session, underpinned by easing inflationary pressures—December 2025 CPI came in at 5.6%—alongside a reduction in petroleum prices, which collectively supported risk appetite across equities. The index ultimately closed at 176,355, marking a solid gain of 2,301 points for the day. Sectoral leadership came from Banking and E&P stocks, which provided the bulk of the upward thrust.
  • Market participation was notably strong, with volumes rising to 799mn shares on the KSE-100 and 1.40bn shares across the broader market. Activity was concentrated in KEL (373mn), PIBTL (140mn), and BOP (55mn). Looking ahead, the government’s reform-driven policy framework is anticipated to enhance economic resilience, underpinning investor confidence and supporting equity market expansion. While the prevailing trend remains constructive, elevated valuations at current levels may invite intermittent profit-taking. Nonetheless, sustained interest from investors seeking strategic positioning suggests the market’s broader trajectory remains intact. Investors are advised to remain composed amid short-term fluctuations and focus on fundamentally strong names with long-term growth visibility.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 1 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The benchmark KSE-100 Index posted a strong rebound, surging to an intraday high of 176,658.38 before closing at an all-time high of 176,355.49 and registering a gain of 2,301.17 points (1.32%). The rally was driven by broad- based buying, led primarily by Commercial Banks and Oil & Gas stocks, alongside selective strength in cement, fertilizer, and power sectors.
  • Positive sentiment prevailed on the eve of the new year, with fresh fund allocations for investment plans contributing to the momentum. On the macroeconomic front, headline inflation eased to 5.6%YoY in Dec’25, within the Ministry of Finance’s projected range, while the FBR’s provisional tax collection for the 1HFY26 stood at PKR 6,154 billion, falling short of the target by PKR 336 billion. In terms of index contribution, UBL, OGDC, ENGRO, HBL, and MEBL emerged as key drivers, collectively adding 1,086.27 points to the benchmark. On the volumes front, KEL led activity with 372.71 million shares, while overall market turnover stood at 1,399.85 million shares, reflecting healthy participation
Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK): 1QFY26 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Dec 30 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK PA) conducted its 1QFY26 analyst briefing today to discuss financial/operational performance and outlook of the company. Below are key takeaways from the session.
  • To recall, Lucky Cement Limited’s (LUCK PA) consolidated profitability clocked-in at PKR 23.6Bn (EPS PKR 15.01, up 19/10% YoY/QoQ) in 1QFY26 against a profit of PKR 19.8Bn (EPS PKR 12.24) in 1QFY25.
  • On a standalone basis, profitability was recorded at PKR 14.62Bn in 1QFY26 translating into an EPS of PKR 9.98, against PAT and EPS of PKR 6.5Bn and PKR 4.48, respectively, in the SPLY (up 2.23/2.54x YoY/QoQ).
Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FATIMA): 9MCY25 Analyst Briefing Key Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Dec 26 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited (FATIMA PA) held its analyst briefing on 24 December 2025 to discuss its 9MCY25 financial/operational results and outlook of the company. Following are the key takeaways.
  • Total fertilizer industry volumes declined 3.5% YoY during 9MCY25 as nitrogen fell 1.7% YoY and phosphate plummeted 8.7% YoY. FATIMA increased its market share by 4.6/4.2ppts YoY in Nit/Phos to 26.9/40.9% respectively.
Pakistan Economy: MPS Surprise 50bps cut in policy rate – By Foundation Research

Dec 15 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Today, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to cut the policy rate by 50bps to 10.5%. The decision was made considering inflation remained within the target range of 5-7% during 5MFY26, despite relatively sticky core inflation. The MPC believes economic activity is gaining traction, driven by improvements in key indicators like large-scale manufacturing. However, global challenges, particularly for exports, may impact the macroeconomic outlook. The MPC noted the available space to reduce the policy rate to support growth on a sustainable basis while maintaining price stability.
  • MPC noted several key developments. The FY25 Labor Force Survey indicates an increase in the unemployment rate from FY21, despite faster employment growth. SBP's FX reserves have risen to USD 15.8Bn, aided by a USD 1.2Bn IMF receipt. Consumer confidence has improved, while business confidence has moderated slightly. The overall and primary fiscal balances recorded surpluses in 1QFY26, led by a sizable SBP profit transfer. Globally, commodity prices are supportive, but financial conditions remain challenging with evolving tariff dynamics.
Pakistan Economy: IMF: Further reforms needed – By Foundation Research

Dec 12 2025


Foundation Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released the detailed report upon approval by its Executive Board of the 2nd review of the USD 7.0Bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and 1st review of the USD 1.3Bn Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The IMF report cited the governments’ strong program implementation as 6 of 7 quantitative criteria, 4 of 8 indicative targets, and most continuous and other structural benchmarks were met at end-June 2025. This has maintained stability and improved financing and external conditions.
  • Pakistan’s 37-month EFF was approved on September 25, 2024, and aims to build resilience and enable sustainable growth. The program’s priorities remain centered on (i) entrenching macroeconomic stability through consistent implementation of sound macro policies, including rebuilding international reserve buffers and broadening the tax base; (ii) advancing reforms to strengthen competition and raise productivity and competitiveness; and (iii) reforming SOEs and improving public service provision, developing human and physical capital, and restoring energy sector viability.
Pakistan Cement: Soft turn out in Nov’25 – By Foundation Research

Dec 4 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Cement sector dispatches exhibited a decline of 2.4% YoY in Nov’25 to 4.1Mn tons, while capacity utilization remained muted at 57.2% vs. 57.3% in the SPLY. Local sales recorded a slight increase of 3.3% YoY to 3.5Mn tons, showing mild signs of demand recovery and improved macros. However, exports declined by a sizable 26.5% YoY to reach 0.6Mn tons. This decline is a function of improved domestic demand post floods, high base effect and complete closure of Afghan border which is evident from the slump in North exports.
  • Fall in local dispatches of 9.7% MoM is primarily due to high base effect and weather changes. Local demand continued to show early signs of recovery in the aftermath of floods, aided by improved macros. However, exports were materially impacted, owing to Afghan border closure as evident by a large MoM decline 28.9% and improved local sales.
Kohat Cement Company Limited (KOHC): FY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Nov 11 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Kohat Cement Company Limited (KOHC PA) held its 1QFY26 analyst briefing today to discuss financial/operational performance and outlook of the company.
  • Kohat Cement Company Limited (KOHC PA) profitability clocked in at PKR 2.9Bn (EPS: PKR 3.20/sh) in 1QFY26 vs. PKR 3.4Bn (EPS: PKR 3.74/sh) during 1QFY25. In FY25, KOHC profitability was reported at PKR 11.6Bn (EPS: PKR 12.59/sh) as compared to PKR 8.9Bn (EPS: PKR 9.67/sh) in FY24.
  • In 1QFY26, local retention prices settled at PKR 14.6k/ton vs. cost incurred of PKR 9.6k/ton. However retention prices in FY25 stood at PKR 16.1k/ton vs. PKR 14.9k/ton in the year prior. Recently prices have increased which would offset impact of surge in coal prices thereby gross margins will sustain.
Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC): Analyst Briefing Key Takeaways – By Foundation Research

Nov 10 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC PA) held its analyst briefing today to discuss financial/operational performance and outlook of the company.
  • Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC PA) reported a profit of PKR 1.3Bn (EPS: PKR 5.6/sh), up 25% YoY in 1QFY26, against PKR 1.0Bn (EPS: PKR 4.5/sh) in 1QFY25. The company earned a profit of PKR 4.9Bn (EPS: PKR 21.5/sh) in FY25 as against profit of PKR 5.2bn (EPS: PKR 22.8/sh) in FY24.
Oil Marketing Companies: Volumetric pick-up continues – By Foundation Research

Nov 6 2025


Foundation Securities


  • During Oct’25, POL sales remained flat YoY (up 9% MoM) to 1.5Mn tons. Whereas in 4MFY26 sales witnessed an increase of 4% YoY to 5.4Mn tons despite low utilization of FO. Product-wise data revealed that MS/HSD sales were down/up 2/4% YoY whereas FO sales nosedived 52% YoY during Oct’25. Company-wise analysis depicts that PSO/WAFI volumes fell/rose 8/14% YoY, respectively, while APL volume remained steady YoY in Oct’25.
  • White oil: Domestic petroleum sales (ex-non Energy) depicted unchanged growth YoY during the month, while white oil sales climbed 1% YoY (up 8% MoM). Product wise, HSD sales increased 4% YoY (up 21% MoM) to clock-in at 714K tons. Whereas, MS sales dropped 2% YoY (down 4% MoM) to 657K tons during Oct’25. During 4MFY26, sales accelerated 4% YoY due to an increase of 7% YoY in White oil sales given improved macros. MS/HSD sales boosted 4/11% YoY during 4MFY26. In the outgoing month, MS/HSD prices moderated by 0.4/1.7% MoM to average Rs267.0/277.7/liter, respectively.
Pakistan Cement: Local demand maintains uptrend in Oct’25 – By Foundation Research

Nov 6 2025


Foundation Securities


  • Cement sector dispatches recorded a growth of 6.1% YoY in Oct’25 to 4.8Mn tons, while capacity utilization increased to 65.8%. Local sales exhibited a jump of 15.3% YoY to 3.9Mn tons, which we believe is due to low base effect and improved macros. However, exports declined by a sizable 23.2% YoY to reach 0.8Mn tons. This decline is a function of improved domestic demand post floods, high base effect of exports and closure of Afghan border.
  • Surge in local dispatches of 12.5% MoM is primarily due to post floods impact as water levels were receding during the period under discussion. Domestic demand continued to show early signs of recovery in the aftermath of floods, aided by improved macros. However, a mild 0.2% MoM decline in exports limited the overall increase.
Pakistan Economy: MSCI Nov’25 Quarterly Index Review: 3 additions to MSCI Pakistan Index and 11 additions/2 deletions to MSCI FM Small Cap (Pakistan) Index – By Foundation Research

Nov 6 2025


Foundation Securities


  • MSCI, the leading global provider of research-based indexes and analytics, earlier today announced the results of its Nov’25 Frontier Markets Quarterly Index Review. All changes will be implemented from 24th November 2025.
  • In MSCI Pakistan Index, there have been 3 additions which are Askari Bank (AKBL), Bank of Punjab (BOP) and Meezan Bank (MEBL).