Pakistan Economy: MPC defies market expectations; cuts PR by 50bp to 10.5% - By JS Research

Dec 16 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) decreases the policy rate by 50bp to 10.5%, noting that inflation outlook remains broadly unchanged, supported by benign global commodity prices and well-anchored inflation expectations under a prudent monetary policy stance.
  • MPC stressed the need to continue strengthening external and fiscal buffers to absorb potential shocks and support the economic recovery, while maintaining coordinated monetary and fiscal policies and advancing structural reforms to ensure sustainable growth without fueling inflationary or external pressures.
  • SBP anticipates a further increase in FX reserves going forward strengthening to US$17.8bn by FY26 end and also expects workers’ remittances to cross US$40bn for FY26. For FY26, external financing needs are projected to remain at levels similar to last year.
Oil Marketing Companies (OMC): OMC sales up 6% YoY and down 5% MoM in Dec 2025;1HFY26 sales up 2% YoY – By Topline Research

Jan 2 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan's Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) recorded sales of 1.35mn tons in Dec 2025, up 6% YoY and down 5% MoM.
  • The YoY increase is due to economic recovery, lower inflation, and control of smuggling, whereas the MoM decrease in sales is attributable to the strike by transporters. To highlight, Transporters went on a nationwide strike on Dec 08, 2025 which continued for 10 days.
  • This takes total sales for 1HFY26 to 8.2mn tons, reflecting a 2% YoY increase compared to 8.02mn tons in 1HFY25.
Pakistan Fertilizers: Pakistan’s Urea sales for Dec 2025 at all time high of 1,356k tons; Inventory at 0.31mn tons – By Topline Research

Jan 2 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Urea sales in Dec 2025 is anticipated to clock in at all time high of 1,356k tons, up by 65% MoM and 37% YoY amid push sales from company/dealers through higher discounts offerings. This takes 2025 urea offtakes to 6.73mn tons, up 2% YoY compared to 6.57mn tons in 2024, respectively. To note, in 11M2025, urea sales was down 4%.
  • As per our checks, EFERT has maintained discount around Rs400/bag during the month of Dec 2025. However, this discount was rolled back to Rs150 /bag at the start of the new year. Similarly, FFC also offered discount of Rs 150–200 per bag during the same period.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue – By JS Research

Jan 2 2026


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index showed positive movement to close at 176,355 level, up 2,301 points. Volumes stood at 1,403mn shares versus 957mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to revisit yesterday's high of 176,658 where a break above that will continue the uptrend towards 180,500 level. However, any downside will find support between 174,430 and 175,820 levels, respectively. The RSI and the MACD have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to 'Buy on dips', with risk defined below 174,437 level. The support and resistance are at 174,976 and 177,197 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Oil edges higher following biggest annual loss since 2020 - By Shajar Research

Jan 2 2026


Shajar Capital


  • Oil prices edged up on the first day of trade in 2026 after last year posting their biggest annual loss since 2020, as Ukrainian drones targeted Russian oil facilities and a U.S. blockade pressured Venezuela's exports. (Reuters)
  • Stocks kicked off the new year on a positive note, with Asian shares and US equity-index futures advancing, while precious metals rebounded after a soft finish to 2025. (Bloomberg)
Morning News: Urgent need to fast-track govt’s ambitious economic reforms: PM - By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 2 2026


Alpha Capital


  • In a forceful kick-off to 2026, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday directed that ministries take immediate and decisive action, underscoring the urgent need to fast-track the government’s ambitious economic reforms aimed at steering the country’s faltering economy back on track.
  • In a bold move to tackle the country’s crippling energy crisis, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thurs day called for an urgent and aggressive push to explore and extract new oil and gas reserves, warning that continued reliance on costly petroleum imports is unsustainable.
Morning News: T-bills attract $20m in net foreign inflows - By Vector Research

Jan 2 2026


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s short-term local government bonds saw net foreign inflows of $20 million in December, compared with $42.2 million in outflows recorded in the previous month. Overseas investors poured $77.29 million in treasury bills as of December 25 but divested $57.27 million, data from the State Bank of Pakistan showed on Thursday. (The News)
  • Pakistan will benefit from a technical assistance approved by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) that will support member countries in systematically shaping future sustainable transport investments. (Dawn)
Morning News: Inflation in Pakistan clocks in at 5.6% in December 2025: - By HMFS Research

Jan 2 2026


HMFS Research


  • Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 5.6% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in December 2025, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Thursday, a reading in line with the Ministry of Finance estimate of 5.5-6.5%. The consumer price index (CPI) was recorded at 6.1% in November 2025. The CPI stood at 4.1% in December 2024. On a month-on-month basis, it decreased by 0.4% in December 2025, as compared to an increase of 0.4% in the previous month and an increase of 0.1% in December 2024. This takes the 6MFY26 inflation reading at 5.15% against 7.22% in 6MFY25.
  • In a bold move to tackle the country’s crippling energy crisis, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday called for an urgent and aggressive push to explore and extract new oil and gas reserves, warning that continued reliance on costly petroleum imports is unsustainable. harif made it clear that Pakistan must shift its focus towards domestic energy production or risk deeper economic challenges. “We can no longer afford to rely on expensive imports,” he stated, underscoring the need for swift action. He also called for a digital overhaul of the oil and gas supply chain, from importation to the end consumer, highlighting how this will not only increase efficiency but also tackle the rampant smuggling of petroleum products. The meeting was briefed on recent developments in the oil and gas sector, with officials highlighting a significant discovery by the Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd. (OGDCL), with an estimated 4,100 barrels of oil set to be extracted daily.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Jan 1 2026


Vector Securities


  • Evening Note.
Pakistan Market Wrap: New Year, New Highs: Bulls Carry Momentum into 2026 – By HMFS Research

Jan 1 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index scaled fresh highs at the start of the new calendar year, extending its bullish run as the benchmark touched an intra-day peak of 176,658. Momentum remained firmly intact throughout the session, underpinned by easing inflationary pressures—December 2025 CPI came in at 5.6%—alongside a reduction in petroleum prices, which collectively supported risk appetite across equities. The index ultimately closed at 176,355, marking a solid gain of 2,301 points for the day. Sectoral leadership came from Banking and E&P stocks, which provided the bulk of the upward thrust.
  • Market participation was notably strong, with volumes rising to 799mn shares on the KSE-100 and 1.40bn shares across the broader market. Activity was concentrated in KEL (373mn), PIBTL (140mn), and BOP (55mn). Looking ahead, the government’s reform-driven policy framework is anticipated to enhance economic resilience, underpinning investor confidence and supporting equity market expansion. While the prevailing trend remains constructive, elevated valuations at current levels may invite intermittent profit-taking. Nonetheless, sustained interest from investors seeking strategic positioning suggests the market’s broader trajectory remains intact. Investors are advised to remain composed amid short-term fluctuations and focus on fundamentally strong names with long-term growth visibility.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 1 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The benchmark KSE-100 Index posted a strong rebound, surging to an intraday high of 176,658.38 before closing at an all-time high of 176,355.49 and registering a gain of 2,301.17 points (1.32%). The rally was driven by broad- based buying, led primarily by Commercial Banks and Oil & Gas stocks, alongside selective strength in cement, fertilizer, and power sectors.
  • Positive sentiment prevailed on the eve of the new year, with fresh fund allocations for investment plans contributing to the momentum. On the macroeconomic front, headline inflation eased to 5.6%YoY in Dec’25, within the Ministry of Finance’s projected range, while the FBR’s provisional tax collection for the 1HFY26 stood at PKR 6,154 billion, falling short of the target by PKR 336 billion. In terms of index contribution, UBL, OGDC, ENGRO, HBL, and MEBL emerged as key drivers, collectively adding 1,086.27 points to the benchmark. On the volumes front, KEL led activity with 372.71 million shares, while overall market turnover stood at 1,399.85 million shares, reflecting healthy participation
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue – By JS Research

Jan 2 2026


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index showed positive movement to close at 176,355 level, up 2,301 points. Volumes stood at 1,403mn shares versus 957mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to revisit yesterday's high of 176,658 where a break above that will continue the uptrend towards 180,500 level. However, any downside will find support between 174,430 and 175,820 levels, respectively. The RSI and the MACD have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to 'Buy on dips', with risk defined below 174,437 level. The support and resistance are at 174,976 and 177,197 levels, respectively.
Pakistan Market: Dec-2025: Closing the year with 51% YoY gains – By JS Research

Jan 1 2026


JS Global Capital


  • KSE-100 closed at 175k, posting a 4.4% monthly gain and a 51% return in CY25, taking three-year cumulative returns to 331%. The index rallied 7.4k points during the month, driven by a 50bp policy rate cut, improved FX reserves following the IMF’s US$1.2bn EFF and RSF disbursement, and the successful PIA bidding process. Selective year-end profit-taking by institutions was also observed. Foreign investors remained net sellers with outflows of US$42mn, while individuals and banks were net buyers. We also witnessed privatization/ acquisition transaction-led rallies in PIAHCLA and MLCF during the month.
  • At its Monetary Policy Committee meeting this month, the SBP cut the policy rate by 50bps to 10.5%, after maintaining a status quo for the past six months (the last cut was in May 2025). The dovish stance was supported by weak oil prices, manageable inflation, and a stable external outlook. CPI inflation stood at 6.1% in Nov-2025 and is expected to ease to 6.0% in December. Meanwhile, Pakistan posted a current account surplus of US$100mn in Nov-2025, narrowing the 5MFY26 deficit to US$812mn.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 expected to trade in a range – By JS Research

Jan 1 2026


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index posted a loss of 418 points to close at 174,054 level. Volumes stood at 957mn shares versus 851mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to test support at 173,564 (yesterday's low) where a fall below that will initiate a corrective trend with 172,395 and 170,641 in sight. However, any upside will face resistance within 175,000-175,240 range as a break above that will target 175,883, followed by 180,500. The MACD is moving up, while the RSI has shown weakness, signaling no clear trading view. We recommend investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance are at 173,335 and 175,003 levels, respectively.
Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK): Core improvement to uplift valuation; Buy – By JS Research

Dec 31 2025


JS Global Capital


  • We upgrade LUCK to Buy from Hold, raising our SoTP-based TP to Rs570/sh from Rs480/sh, implying a 17% upside, driven mainly by a stronger contribution from core cement operations (Rs286/sh; 50% of SoTP) following an 8%/ 6% increase in our FY26E/ FY27F standalone earnings forecasts and a reduction in our risk-free rate assumption to 11% from 12% previously.
  • Management apprised that the 1.31mtpa cement capacity expansion through its JV in Congo was long overdue, as the company risked losing market share, with all three overseas cement operations currently running at over 90% capacity utilization. On the domestic front, management expects minimum demand growth of 9% in FY26.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue – By JS Research

Dec 31 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a positive session to close at 174,473 level, up 576 points DoD. Volumes stood at 851mn shares versus 858mn shares traded previously. If the gain continues, the next target will be at 175,883 which may later rise to 180,500. However, any downside will find support between 173,780 and 174,130 levels. The RSI and the MACD are on a rising trend, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to 'Buy on dips', with risk defined below 173,783 level. The support and resistance are at 174,128 and 174,812 levels, respectively.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; A steady uptrend to continue – By JS Research

Dec 30 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Bullish momentum continued as the KSE-100 index closed the session at 173,896 level, up 1,496 points. Volumes stood at 858mn shares versus 798mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to revisit yesterday's high of 174,412 where a break above that will target 175,883 level. However, any downside will find support between 173,200 and 173,840 levels, respectively. Meanwhile, the RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator are heading up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to 'Buy on dips', keeping stoploss below the 173,200 level. The support and resistance are at 173,260 and 174,471 levels, respectively.
Pakistan Economy: Petrochemical margins remain on a downward trend – By JS Research

Dec 29 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Global economic slowdown, bearish oil prices and reduced demand for PVC in Asia coupled with US-China trade in Asia has led to significant decline in PVC-Ethylene core delta on a YoY basis in CY25.
  • The global PVC market is currently grappling with a supply glut, fueled by a surge in Chinese exports and the re-entry of US shipments, which had retreated during COVID-19 but returned as domestic demand softened.
  • PVC-ethylene margins have declined by 17% YoY to ~US$271/ton while PTA-PX margins, dropped 19% YoY to ~US$62/ton from US$74/ton in Dec-2025 on account of a decrease in PTA prices (-3% YoY).
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 resuming the uptrend – By JS Research

Dec 29 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index showed positive movement on Friday to close at 172,401 level, up 1,571 points. Volumes stood at 798mn shares versus 812mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to re-test resistance at Friday's high of 172,583 where a break above that will target 173,031, extendable to 175,883 level. However, any downside will find support between 171,150 and 171,500 levels, respectively. The Stochastic Oscillator and the RSI have moved up, suggesting a positive trend ahead. We recommend investors to 'Buy on dips', with risk defined below 171,146 level. The support and resistance are at 171,504 and 172,940 levels, respectively.
Weekly Roundup: KSE-100 wraps up year at historic high – By JS Research

Dec 26 2025


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index extended its record run, closing the week at 172,400, up 0.6% WoW, although average daily turnover fell by 25% WoW. Sentiment was supported by a key privatization breakthrough, with the government auctioning Pakistan International Airlines Ltd to a consortium led by AHCL for Rs135bn, securing a 75% stake. The deal marks the first major privatization in two decades and meets an important benchmark under the IMF program. External financing momentum also remained firm, with the World Bank approving US$700mn to support macroeconomic stability, while the Asian Development Bank (ADB) signed two financing initiatives totaling US$730mn.
  • Cumulatively, Pakistan received foreign assistance of around US$3bn during 5MFY26. In an encouraging development, The Pakistan Banks Association (PBA) revealed that private sector lending in FY26-TD has reached Rs1.5trn leading to increased liquidity. In the latest T-bill auction, the government raised Rs911bn against a target of Rs471bn, with yields falling 36–78bps across tenors. In another development, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) approved plans to auction 5G spectrum by end-Jan 2026 or early Feb-2026. Lastly, SBP foreign exchange reserves edged up by US$16mn to US$15.9bn, posting a marginal increase of 0.1% WoW.
Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FATIMA): Improving core along with diversification initiatives – By JS Research

Dec 26 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FATIMA) recently held an analyst briefing to discuss its financial results and outlook. To recall, the company reported earnings of Rs28.9bn, translating into an EPS of Rs13.77 for 9MCY25. Management highlighted that fertilizer sales have gained momentum, with urea inventory levels expected to decline to around 700k tons by CY25 end.
  • Management highlighted that allocation of gas from the MARI field to the Sheikhupura plant has been approved, with 52MMCFD of processed gas to be supplied from Ghazij field. Moreover, the pressure enhancement project is also underway ensuring stable gas supplies. The company has a planned plant turnaround at the Sadiqabad plant during CY26.