Morning News: Oil Falls Below $55 on Signs of Surplus and Ukraine Peace Talks – By Spectrum Research

Dec 17 2025


Spectrum Securities


  • West Texas Intermediate oil fell below $55 a barrel for the first time since February 2021 on signs that supply is outpacing demand. Signs of weakness are proliferating across the supply side of the oil market, with Middle Eastern crude prices entering a bearish pattern known as contango.
  • The demand side looks similarly fragile, with elevated premiums for fuels like gasoline and diesel relative to crude easing and weak job growth in the US signaling a potential slowdown in demand.
Oil Marketing Companies (OMC): OMC sales up 6% YoY and down 5% MoM in Dec 2025;1HFY26 sales up 2% YoY – By Topline Research

Jan 2 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan's Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) recorded sales of 1.35mn tons in Dec 2025, up 6% YoY and down 5% MoM.
  • The YoY increase is due to economic recovery, lower inflation, and control of smuggling, whereas the MoM decrease in sales is attributable to the strike by transporters. To highlight, Transporters went on a nationwide strike on Dec 08, 2025 which continued for 10 days.
  • This takes total sales for 1HFY26 to 8.2mn tons, reflecting a 2% YoY increase compared to 8.02mn tons in 1HFY25.
Pakistan Fertilizers: Pakistan’s Urea sales for Dec 2025 at all time high of 1,356k tons; Inventory at 0.31mn tons – By Topline Research

Jan 2 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Urea sales in Dec 2025 is anticipated to clock in at all time high of 1,356k tons, up by 65% MoM and 37% YoY amid push sales from company/dealers through higher discounts offerings. This takes 2025 urea offtakes to 6.73mn tons, up 2% YoY compared to 6.57mn tons in 2024, respectively. To note, in 11M2025, urea sales was down 4%.
  • As per our checks, EFERT has maintained discount around Rs400/bag during the month of Dec 2025. However, this discount was rolled back to Rs150 /bag at the start of the new year. Similarly, FFC also offered discount of Rs 150–200 per bag during the same period.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue – By JS Research

Jan 2 2026


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index showed positive movement to close at 176,355 level, up 2,301 points. Volumes stood at 1,403mn shares versus 957mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to revisit yesterday's high of 176,658 where a break above that will continue the uptrend towards 180,500 level. However, any downside will find support between 174,430 and 175,820 levels, respectively. The RSI and the MACD have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to 'Buy on dips', with risk defined below 174,437 level. The support and resistance are at 174,976 and 177,197 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Oil edges higher following biggest annual loss since 2020 - By Shajar Research

Jan 2 2026


Shajar Capital


  • Oil prices edged up on the first day of trade in 2026 after last year posting their biggest annual loss since 2020, as Ukrainian drones targeted Russian oil facilities and a U.S. blockade pressured Venezuela's exports. (Reuters)
  • Stocks kicked off the new year on a positive note, with Asian shares and US equity-index futures advancing, while precious metals rebounded after a soft finish to 2025. (Bloomberg)
Morning News: Urgent need to fast-track govt’s ambitious economic reforms: PM - By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 2 2026


Alpha Capital


  • In a forceful kick-off to 2026, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday directed that ministries take immediate and decisive action, underscoring the urgent need to fast-track the government’s ambitious economic reforms aimed at steering the country’s faltering economy back on track.
  • In a bold move to tackle the country’s crippling energy crisis, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thurs day called for an urgent and aggressive push to explore and extract new oil and gas reserves, warning that continued reliance on costly petroleum imports is unsustainable.
Morning News: T-bills attract $20m in net foreign inflows - By Vector Research

Jan 2 2026


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s short-term local government bonds saw net foreign inflows of $20 million in December, compared with $42.2 million in outflows recorded in the previous month. Overseas investors poured $77.29 million in treasury bills as of December 25 but divested $57.27 million, data from the State Bank of Pakistan showed on Thursday. (The News)
  • Pakistan will benefit from a technical assistance approved by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) that will support member countries in systematically shaping future sustainable transport investments. (Dawn)
Morning News: Inflation in Pakistan clocks in at 5.6% in December 2025: - By HMFS Research

Jan 2 2026


HMFS Research


  • Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 5.6% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in December 2025, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Thursday, a reading in line with the Ministry of Finance estimate of 5.5-6.5%. The consumer price index (CPI) was recorded at 6.1% in November 2025. The CPI stood at 4.1% in December 2024. On a month-on-month basis, it decreased by 0.4% in December 2025, as compared to an increase of 0.4% in the previous month and an increase of 0.1% in December 2024. This takes the 6MFY26 inflation reading at 5.15% against 7.22% in 6MFY25.
  • In a bold move to tackle the country’s crippling energy crisis, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday called for an urgent and aggressive push to explore and extract new oil and gas reserves, warning that continued reliance on costly petroleum imports is unsustainable. harif made it clear that Pakistan must shift its focus towards domestic energy production or risk deeper economic challenges. “We can no longer afford to rely on expensive imports,” he stated, underscoring the need for swift action. He also called for a digital overhaul of the oil and gas supply chain, from importation to the end consumer, highlighting how this will not only increase efficiency but also tackle the rampant smuggling of petroleum products. The meeting was briefed on recent developments in the oil and gas sector, with officials highlighting a significant discovery by the Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd. (OGDCL), with an estimated 4,100 barrels of oil set to be extracted daily.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Jan 1 2026


Vector Securities


  • Evening Note.
Pakistan Market Wrap: New Year, New Highs: Bulls Carry Momentum into 2026 – By HMFS Research

Jan 1 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index scaled fresh highs at the start of the new calendar year, extending its bullish run as the benchmark touched an intra-day peak of 176,658. Momentum remained firmly intact throughout the session, underpinned by easing inflationary pressures—December 2025 CPI came in at 5.6%—alongside a reduction in petroleum prices, which collectively supported risk appetite across equities. The index ultimately closed at 176,355, marking a solid gain of 2,301 points for the day. Sectoral leadership came from Banking and E&P stocks, which provided the bulk of the upward thrust.
  • Market participation was notably strong, with volumes rising to 799mn shares on the KSE-100 and 1.40bn shares across the broader market. Activity was concentrated in KEL (373mn), PIBTL (140mn), and BOP (55mn). Looking ahead, the government’s reform-driven policy framework is anticipated to enhance economic resilience, underpinning investor confidence and supporting equity market expansion. While the prevailing trend remains constructive, elevated valuations at current levels may invite intermittent profit-taking. Nonetheless, sustained interest from investors seeking strategic positioning suggests the market’s broader trajectory remains intact. Investors are advised to remain composed amid short-term fluctuations and focus on fundamentally strong names with long-term growth visibility.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 1 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The benchmark KSE-100 Index posted a strong rebound, surging to an intraday high of 176,658.38 before closing at an all-time high of 176,355.49 and registering a gain of 2,301.17 points (1.32%). The rally was driven by broad- based buying, led primarily by Commercial Banks and Oil & Gas stocks, alongside selective strength in cement, fertilizer, and power sectors.
  • Positive sentiment prevailed on the eve of the new year, with fresh fund allocations for investment plans contributing to the momentum. On the macroeconomic front, headline inflation eased to 5.6%YoY in Dec’25, within the Ministry of Finance’s projected range, while the FBR’s provisional tax collection for the 1HFY26 stood at PKR 6,154 billion, falling short of the target by PKR 336 billion. In terms of index contribution, UBL, OGDC, ENGRO, HBL, and MEBL emerged as key drivers, collectively adding 1,086.27 points to the benchmark. On the volumes front, KEL led activity with 372.71 million shares, while overall market turnover stood at 1,399.85 million shares, reflecting healthy participation
Morning News: Oil Edges Higher with Ukraine Talks and China’s Pledge in Focus - By Spectrum Research

Dec 29 2025


Spectrum Securities


  • Oil tricked higher as US-led talks to end the war in Ukraine failed to yield a breakthrough, and China vowed to support growth next year.
  • Russia has almost doubled exports of liquefied petroleum gas in the January - November period to ex-Soviet republics in Central Asia and Afghanistan to 1.016 million metric tons, industry sources told Reuters on Friday.
  • The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has conveyed to the Inland Revenue officials that the amount of reward for meritorious services shall not be more than 24 salaries during the financial year in the case of each employee.
Morning News: Oil Heads for Weekly Surge on Venezuela Blockade, Nigeria Strike – By Spectrum Research

Dec 26 2025


Spectrum Securities


  • Oil headed for the biggest weekly gain since late October, as traders tracked a partial US blockade of crude shipments from Venezuela and a military strike by Washington against a militant group in Nigeria.
  • Pakistan’s power sector has been at the crossroads for a while, facing an array of challenges, and grappling with a mix of financial, operational as well as policy issues. Escalating capacity payments only add to the worries.
Morning News: Oil Falls Below $55 on Signs of Surplus and Ukraine Peace Talks – By Spectrum Research

Dec 17 2025


Spectrum Securities


  • West Texas Intermediate oil fell below $55 a barrel for the first time since February 2021 on signs that supply is outpacing demand. Signs of weakness are proliferating across the supply side of the oil market, with Middle Eastern crude prices entering a bearish pattern known as contango.
  • The demand side looks similarly fragile, with elevated premiums for fuels like gasoline and diesel relative to crude easing and weak job growth in the US signaling a potential slowdown in demand.
Morning News: Oil Rises from Lowest Since October on Broader Market Optimism – By Spectrum Research

Dec 12 2025


Spectrum Securities


  • Oil rallied from its lowest close in almost two months, buoyed by bullishness in broader financial markets.
  • The tax machinery on Thursday told Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif that it may miss the first half-year's downward revised target by Rs560 billion without support from the office of the attorney general, amid a warning by the Ministry of Finance about the implications of a huge revenue shortfall for government expenditure.
Morning News: Pakistan tells Afghanistan: Act against TTP or no trade – By Spectrum Research

Nov 17 2025


Spectrum Securities


  • The Foreign Office on Friday made it clear that no meaningful trade or economic engagement with Afghanistan can take place as long as the Afghan Taliban regime continues to harbour and support terrorist groups targeting Pakistan.
  • Oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Monday, erasing last week's gains, as loadings resumed at the key Russian export hub of Novorossiysk after a two-day suspension at the Black Sea port that had been hit by a Ukrainian attack.
Morning News: Macroeconomic stability in FY25 – By Spectrum Research

Oct 17 2025


Spectrum Securities


  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Thursday said a prudent monetary policy stance and continued fiscal consolidation strengthened macroeconomic stability in FY25. Moreover, favourable global commodity prices and IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) further supported improvement in overall macroeconomic conditions.
  • Pakistan is actively working to diversify its international trade settlement mechanisms and promote the use of local currencies.
Morning News: Tighten fiscal, monetary policies, IMF tells Pakistan – By Spectrum Research

Oct 16 2025


Spectrum Securities


  • With the signing of a Staff Level Agreement (SLA), the IMF has asked Pakistan to continue tightening the fiscal and monetary policies as well as reducing intervention in commodity markets.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected an increase of 0.4 percent in Pakistan’s government net debt, increasing from 65.3 percent of GDP in 2025 to 65.7 percent in 2026. According to the IMF report “Fiscal Monitor, Spending Smarter: How Efficient and Well-Allocated Public Spending Can Boost Economic Growth,” the gross debt for the Pakistani government is projected to decrease from 71.6 percent of GDP in 2025 to 71.3 percent in 2026. The Fund has projected a decline in government expenditure from 21.1 percent of GDP in 2025 to 20.4 percent in 2026. The government revenue is projected at 16.2 percent of GDP for 2026, against 15.7 percent for 2025and 12.7 percent during the same period of 2024. The Fund has projected the government’s primary balance at 2.5 percent for 2026 against 2.4 percent in 2025. Further, the government’s overall balance is projected at - 4.1 percent for 2026 against - 5.3 percent in 2025.
Morning News: Oil Holds Sharp Drop with Focus on Gaza Plan and Global Supply – By Spectrum Research

Oct 10 2025


Spectrum Securities


  • Oil held the biggest decline in a week on cautious optimism about easing tensions in the Middle East and the outlook for supply.
  • In a striking courtroom admission, Supreme Court Justice Jamal Khan Mandokhail conceded on Thursday that all 24 judges of the country’s top court, whether “willingly or unwillingly,” have accepted the controversial 26th Constitutional Amendment.