Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 1 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The benchmark KSE-100 Index posted a strong rebound, surging to an intraday high of 176,658.38 before closing at an all-time high of 176,355.49 and registering a gain of 2,301.17 points (1.32%). The rally was driven by broad- based buying, led primarily by Commercial Banks and Oil & Gas stocks, alongside selective strength in cement, fertilizer, and power sectors.
  • Positive sentiment prevailed on the eve of the new year, with fresh fund allocations for investment plans contributing to the momentum. On the macroeconomic front, headline inflation eased to 5.6%YoY in Dec’25, within the Ministry of Finance’s projected range, while the FBR’s provisional tax collection for the 1HFY26 stood at PKR 6,154 billion, falling short of the target by PKR 336 billion. In terms of index contribution, UBL, OGDC, ENGRO, HBL, and MEBL emerged as key drivers, collectively adding 1,086.27 points to the benchmark. On the volumes front, KEL led activity with 372.71 million shares, while overall market turnover stood at 1,399.85 million shares, reflecting healthy participation
Oil Marketing Companies (OMC): OMC sales up 6% YoY and down 5% MoM in Dec 2025;1HFY26 sales up 2% YoY – By Topline Research

Jan 2 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan's Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) recorded sales of 1.35mn tons in Dec 2025, up 6% YoY and down 5% MoM.
  • The YoY increase is due to economic recovery, lower inflation, and control of smuggling, whereas the MoM decrease in sales is attributable to the strike by transporters. To highlight, Transporters went on a nationwide strike on Dec 08, 2025 which continued for 10 days.
  • This takes total sales for 1HFY26 to 8.2mn tons, reflecting a 2% YoY increase compared to 8.02mn tons in 1HFY25.
Pakistan Fertilizers: Pakistan’s Urea sales for Dec 2025 at all time high of 1,356k tons; Inventory at 0.31mn tons – By Topline Research

Jan 2 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Urea sales in Dec 2025 is anticipated to clock in at all time high of 1,356k tons, up by 65% MoM and 37% YoY amid push sales from company/dealers through higher discounts offerings. This takes 2025 urea offtakes to 6.73mn tons, up 2% YoY compared to 6.57mn tons in 2024, respectively. To note, in 11M2025, urea sales was down 4%.
  • As per our checks, EFERT has maintained discount around Rs400/bag during the month of Dec 2025. However, this discount was rolled back to Rs150 /bag at the start of the new year. Similarly, FFC also offered discount of Rs 150–200 per bag during the same period.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue – By JS Research

Jan 2 2026


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index showed positive movement to close at 176,355 level, up 2,301 points. Volumes stood at 1,403mn shares versus 957mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to revisit yesterday's high of 176,658 where a break above that will continue the uptrend towards 180,500 level. However, any downside will find support between 174,430 and 175,820 levels, respectively. The RSI and the MACD have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to 'Buy on dips', with risk defined below 174,437 level. The support and resistance are at 174,976 and 177,197 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Oil edges higher following biggest annual loss since 2020 - By Shajar Research

Jan 2 2026


Shajar Capital


  • Oil prices edged up on the first day of trade in 2026 after last year posting their biggest annual loss since 2020, as Ukrainian drones targeted Russian oil facilities and a U.S. blockade pressured Venezuela's exports. (Reuters)
  • Stocks kicked off the new year on a positive note, with Asian shares and US equity-index futures advancing, while precious metals rebounded after a soft finish to 2025. (Bloomberg)
Morning News: Urgent need to fast-track govt’s ambitious economic reforms: PM - By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 2 2026


Alpha Capital


  • In a forceful kick-off to 2026, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday directed that ministries take immediate and decisive action, underscoring the urgent need to fast-track the government’s ambitious economic reforms aimed at steering the country’s faltering economy back on track.
  • In a bold move to tackle the country’s crippling energy crisis, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thurs day called for an urgent and aggressive push to explore and extract new oil and gas reserves, warning that continued reliance on costly petroleum imports is unsustainable.
Morning News: T-bills attract $20m in net foreign inflows - By Vector Research

Jan 2 2026


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s short-term local government bonds saw net foreign inflows of $20 million in December, compared with $42.2 million in outflows recorded in the previous month. Overseas investors poured $77.29 million in treasury bills as of December 25 but divested $57.27 million, data from the State Bank of Pakistan showed on Thursday. (The News)
  • Pakistan will benefit from a technical assistance approved by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) that will support member countries in systematically shaping future sustainable transport investments. (Dawn)
Morning News: Inflation in Pakistan clocks in at 5.6% in December 2025: - By HMFS Research

Jan 2 2026


HMFS Research


  • Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 5.6% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in December 2025, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Thursday, a reading in line with the Ministry of Finance estimate of 5.5-6.5%. The consumer price index (CPI) was recorded at 6.1% in November 2025. The CPI stood at 4.1% in December 2024. On a month-on-month basis, it decreased by 0.4% in December 2025, as compared to an increase of 0.4% in the previous month and an increase of 0.1% in December 2024. This takes the 6MFY26 inflation reading at 5.15% against 7.22% in 6MFY25.
  • In a bold move to tackle the country’s crippling energy crisis, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday called for an urgent and aggressive push to explore and extract new oil and gas reserves, warning that continued reliance on costly petroleum imports is unsustainable. harif made it clear that Pakistan must shift its focus towards domestic energy production or risk deeper economic challenges. “We can no longer afford to rely on expensive imports,” he stated, underscoring the need for swift action. He also called for a digital overhaul of the oil and gas supply chain, from importation to the end consumer, highlighting how this will not only increase efficiency but also tackle the rampant smuggling of petroleum products. The meeting was briefed on recent developments in the oil and gas sector, with officials highlighting a significant discovery by the Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd. (OGDCL), with an estimated 4,100 barrels of oil set to be extracted daily.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Jan 1 2026


Vector Securities


  • Evening Note.
Pakistan Market Wrap: New Year, New Highs: Bulls Carry Momentum into 2026 – By HMFS Research

Jan 1 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index scaled fresh highs at the start of the new calendar year, extending its bullish run as the benchmark touched an intra-day peak of 176,658. Momentum remained firmly intact throughout the session, underpinned by easing inflationary pressures—December 2025 CPI came in at 5.6%—alongside a reduction in petroleum prices, which collectively supported risk appetite across equities. The index ultimately closed at 176,355, marking a solid gain of 2,301 points for the day. Sectoral leadership came from Banking and E&P stocks, which provided the bulk of the upward thrust.
  • Market participation was notably strong, with volumes rising to 799mn shares on the KSE-100 and 1.40bn shares across the broader market. Activity was concentrated in KEL (373mn), PIBTL (140mn), and BOP (55mn). Looking ahead, the government’s reform-driven policy framework is anticipated to enhance economic resilience, underpinning investor confidence and supporting equity market expansion. While the prevailing trend remains constructive, elevated valuations at current levels may invite intermittent profit-taking. Nonetheless, sustained interest from investors seeking strategic positioning suggests the market’s broader trajectory remains intact. Investors are advised to remain composed amid short-term fluctuations and focus on fundamentally strong names with long-term growth visibility.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 1 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The benchmark KSE-100 Index posted a strong rebound, surging to an intraday high of 176,658.38 before closing at an all-time high of 176,355.49 and registering a gain of 2,301.17 points (1.32%). The rally was driven by broad- based buying, led primarily by Commercial Banks and Oil & Gas stocks, alongside selective strength in cement, fertilizer, and power sectors.
  • Positive sentiment prevailed on the eve of the new year, with fresh fund allocations for investment plans contributing to the momentum. On the macroeconomic front, headline inflation eased to 5.6%YoY in Dec’25, within the Ministry of Finance’s projected range, while the FBR’s provisional tax collection for the 1HFY26 stood at PKR 6,154 billion, falling short of the target by PKR 336 billion. In terms of index contribution, UBL, OGDC, ENGRO, HBL, and MEBL emerged as key drivers, collectively adding 1,086.27 points to the benchmark. On the volumes front, KEL led activity with 372.71 million shares, while overall market turnover stood at 1,399.85 million shares, reflecting healthy participation
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 1 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The benchmark KSE-100 Index posted a strong rebound, surging to an intraday high of 176,658.38 before closing at an all-time high of 176,355.49 and registering a gain of 2,301.17 points (1.32%). The rally was driven by broad- based buying, led primarily by Commercial Banks and Oil & Gas stocks, alongside selective strength in cement, fertilizer, and power sectors.
  • Positive sentiment prevailed on the eve of the new year, with fresh fund allocations for investment plans contributing to the momentum. On the macroeconomic front, headline inflation eased to 5.6%YoY in Dec’25, within the Ministry of Finance’s projected range, while the FBR’s provisional tax collection for the 1HFY26 stood at PKR 6,154 billion, falling short of the target by PKR 336 billion. In terms of index contribution, UBL, OGDC, ENGRO, HBL, and MEBL emerged as key drivers, collectively adding 1,086.27 points to the benchmark. On the volumes front, KEL led activity with 372.71 million shares, while overall market turnover stood at 1,399.85 million shares, reflecting healthy participation
Pakistan Economy: Pakistan’s Economy Update 1QFY26 – By AHCML Research

Dec 31 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Pakistan's economy showed vigorous improvement in the 1QFY26, achieving GDP growth of 3.71%YoY. This represents a notable uptick compared to the 1.56% growth observed in the corresponding period of the prior fiscal year. The revival was largely fueled by a robust 9.38% rise in the industrial sector, accompanied by moderate agricultural growth of 2.89% and a stable 2.35% expansion in services.
  • The annual GDP growth rate for FY25 has been adjusted upward to 3.09%, a slight increase from the 3.04% approved in the 114th National Accounts Committee meeting. This revision underscores a marginally stronger economic performance than initially assessed.
Morning News: Jul-Sept retail payments: Total value soars 6pc to Rs166trn QoQ – By AHCML Research

Dec 31 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Retail payments in Pakistan showed strong momentum during the first quarter of this fiscal year (FY26), with transaction volumes climbing to 2.8 billion, a 10 percent increase from the previous quarter, while the total value of payments rose 6 percent to PKR 166 trillion.
  • The government on Tuesday launched the country’s first-ever private-capital-funded Pakistan Skills Impact Bond (PSIB), backed by a guarantee from the Ministry of Finance to operationalize the inaugural Rs one billion pilot tranche of a three-year instrument to fund a wider and scalable Technical Skills Development Programme.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Dec 30 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index continued its upward momentum, reaching an intraday high of 174,805.15 before closing at a record 174,472.79, up 576.45 points (0.33%). Market sentiment was supported by Pakistan’s 1QFY26 GDP growth of 3.71%, according to the Federal Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives. Additionally, Pakistan plans to launch a Panda bond ahead of the Chinese New Year, says the Federal Minister of Finance and Revenue. Key contributors to the index were OGDC, UBL, PPL, PSO, and HUBC, adding a combined 576.45 points. TSBL led trading volumes with 57.46 million shares, while total market participation stood at 842.56 million shares.
Pakistan Economy: CPI for Dec’25 to clock in at 5.5% YoY – By AHCML Research

Dec 30 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Inflation for Dec’25 is likely to come in at 5.5% YoY, compared to same 6.1% YoY in Nov’25 and 4.1%YoY in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to reduce 0.5%MoM, Headline inflation for Dec’25 is expected to ease the pace, primarily driven by a sharp decline in food prices, which make up 35% of the CPI basket.
  • Food inflation is projected at -1.2%MoM due to significant decline in the key food items, due to improving supply as it was hurt by flood in the country. Moreover, the easing POL product prices also to reduce the transport index. The upcoming Ramadan and Eid festival are expected to fuel inflation going forward.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Dec 29 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index extended its upward momentum, hitting an intraday high of 174,411.72 points before closing at a record 173,896.34, up 1,496 points (0.87%). Market sentiment was buoyed by reports of the UAE taking a $1 billion stake in the Fauji Foundation, according to Deputy Prime Minister. Additionally, Pakistan has emerged on the radar of U.S. firms for critical mineral exports, as reported by the Financial Times. Among major contributors were FFC, UBL, PTC, EFERT, and SYS, collectively adding 956.81 points to the index. WTL led trading volumes with 52.8 million shares, while total market participation stood at 855.26 million shares.
Pakistan Economy: UAE's Strategic Investment in Fauji Foundation Group – By AHCML Research

Dec 29 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • This landmark deal represents a major strategic and financial shift for Pakistan. By converting a USD1.0bn UAE deposit into equity stakes within the Fauji Foundation Group, a diversified conglomerate with holdings in fertilizers, energy, food, and banking, Pakistan will erase a significant external liability from its books. This move, to be completed by March 31, 2026, directly eases pressure on the country's balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves. Furthermore, Pakistan has secured assurances for the rollover of an additional USD2bn loan due in 2026, providing crucial medium-term stability. For the United Arab Emirates, the transaction is a strategic pivot from short-term lending to long-term asset acquisition. It grants the UAE direct ownership in profitable, established companies that are central to Pakistan's economic infrastructure, particularly in strategic sectors like energy and food security.
  • This equity-based model transforms a financial claim into a tangible, revenue-generating investment within a key regional partner's economy, aligning with broader sovereign investment goals. The UAE's investment in the Fauji Foundation marks a major shift, bringing sovereign credibility and stable capital to its listed leaders like FFC, FCCL, MARI, and FFL. This partnership de-risks these companies, enhances their governance, and primes them for a valuation re-rating. The resulting surge in investor confidence is poised to positively impact the broader market, offering a compelling opportunity that combines established local market leadership with premier international financial backing.
Pakistan Strategy: Pakistan Investment Strategy 2026 – By AHCML Research

Dec 26 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The PSX is positioned for strong performance in CY26, driven by multiple tailwinds: a rotation from fixed income to equities, continued IMF support, greater political stability, an improved international image, and regional calm post-May '25 ceasefire. Further catalysts include expected defense agreements, declining CDS spreads, sovereign rating upgrades, moderating inflation, lower interest rates, a stable PKR/USD, and improving market liquidity. Growth is amplified by surging new PSX accounts and rising AUM in mutual funds. Trading at a deep discount to regional averages, the KSE-100 offers an attractive entry for alpha-seeking investors. We estimate the KSE-100 Index to reach 206,908 points by Dec’26. This upward trajectory will be driven by a projected 7.5% corporate earnings growth and a 6.0% dividend yield.
  • Pakistan's economy is on track for sustained recovery, with GDP growth projected at 3.2% in FY26 and 3.9% in FY27. This growth is supported by growth in Industrial and service sector as lower interest rates and a stable PKR reduced the cost of production. Inflation is expected to moderate to 7-8%YoY in FY26, aided by stability in PKR against USD, moderate commodity prices fluctuation and completion of major energy tariff adjustments.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Dec 23 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The benchmark KSE-100 Index witnessed another volatile session during the rollover week, touching an intraday high of 171,867.31 points before closing at 171,073.73, down 130.44 points (-0.08%) amid profit-taking. Selling pressure was evident across key sectors, particularly Cement, Fertilizer, Technology & IT Services, and Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, as investors trimmed exposure at elevated valuations.
  • On the sectoral front, the bid-opening process for the divestment of a 75% stake in Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) commenced, with two of the three pre-qualified bidders submitting offers above the minimum expected price of PKR 100bn. Among major laggards, ENGROH, FFC, SYS, LUCK, and OGDC which cumulatively shaved 352.32 points off the benchmark. In the volumes chart, PIAHCLA led activity with 45.03 million shares, while total market participation stood at 650.14 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Dec 22 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index witnessed a volatile trading session owing to the first day of roll-over week, touching a intraday high of 172,167.63 points before succumbing to profit-taking and closing at 171,204.17, down 200.31 points (-0.12%). Selling pressure was evident across key sectors, particularly Commercial Banks, Fertilizer, Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, and Technology & Communication, as investors trimmed exposure at elevated valuations.
  • On the sector front, uncertainty persisted in the power sector due to the ongoing dispute between the Power Division and K-Electric over Tariff Differential Subsidy (TDS) payments. Meanwhile, on the corporate side, Fatima Fertilizer announced a JV between its associate Globacore Minerals (32% stake) and Mari Minerals, while Reko Diq Mining Company awarded remaining major contracts to Metso for its copper-gold project. Among major laggards, HBL, UBL, FFC, PSO, and CHCC which cumulatively shaved 297.00 points off the benchmark. In the volumes chart, KEL led activity with 112.70 million shares, while total market participation stood at 684.55 million shares.