Pakistan Cements: Acquisitions and expansion; Implication for the sector – By Insight Research

Jan 12 2026


Insight Securities


  • The cement sector remains in the spotlight following recent industry acquisitions, as major players are focusing on consolidation. While, new capacity expansion has been announced by one manufacturer, at a time when industry capacity utilization is already below psychological threshold of 60%. Encouragingly, demand indicators have begun to show signs of recovery, with local cement dispatches posting a growth of 13% during 6MFY26. Nevertheless, domestic consumption remains below FY22 levels, highlighting the substantial demand potential. The key uncertainty, however, revolves around the timing and magnitude of this demand recovery.
  • The announcement of capacity expansion in the northern region has reignited concerns around the possibility of a price war. We believe such risks remain remote at this stage, despite sub optimal utilization levels. This view is supported by the industry’s strong pricing discipline, which has remained intact since last three years, despite utilization level standing below 60%, in contrast to earlier cycles. Furthermore, ongoing consolidation has materially enhanced the industry structure, as reflected in the market share of the top five manufacturers, which increased from ~54% in FY17 to ~65% in FY22, and is now expected to rise further to ~76% following recent acquisitions and post capacity addition. Given this backdrop, we continue to prefer cement manufacturers with strong balance sheets, lower leverage and diversified revenue streams, which are better positioned to navigate near term volatility.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 14 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced a volatile session, hitting an intraday high of 184,726.60 before closing at 182,569.81, down 1,382 points (-0.75%) as profit-taking set in. Selling pressure was evident across key sectors, particularly Commercial Banks, accounting for nearly half of total index losses, while cement and fertilizer names also saw heavy selling. Power and telecom sectors contributed to broader downside, showing risk-off sentiment across cyclical and defensive sectors alike.
  • On the macro front, the World Bank projects Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3% in FY25–26, rising to 3.4% in FY26–27, supported by agricultural recovery and post-flood reconstruction. However, the current account deficit is expected to widen in FY26–27 due to rising import demand and normalization of remittances. Among major laggards, UBL, MCB, FFC, LUCK and HUBC, which cumulatively shaved -897.26 points off the benchmark. KEL led trading with 56.27 million shares, as total market turnover reached 1,031.36 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Correction Persists Amid Geopolitical Overhangs – By HMFS Research

Jan 14 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index remained under correction phase, extending its decline amid heightened geopolitical tensions that continued to weigh on investor sentiment. The cautious environment dragged the benchmark to close at 182,570, marking a decline of 1,382 points from the previous session. Despite the broader weakness, improving domestic economic fundamentals and the anticipation of upcoming corporate earnings provided selective support, with pockets of buying observed across specific sectors. Trading activity remained steady, with 444mn shares exchanged on the KSE-100 Index and 1.03bn shares traded in the broader market.
  • Volume leadership was dominated by KEL (56mn), WTL (56mn), and PIBTL (48mn), reflecting sustained participation despite the corrective phase. While near-term sentiment remains sensitive to geopolitical developments, potential strategic tailwinds are emerging. Prospective defence agreements with Turkey, possible defence exports to Indonesia, and advancing discussions around a minerals partnership with Saudi Arabia could strengthen foreign inflows and reinforce investor confidence, providing upside catalysts for the equity market. However, any further escalation in global or regional tensions may prolong profit taking activity. In this environment, investors are advised to maintain a vigilant and disciplined approach, focusing on fundamentally strong stocks that offer durable long-term growth potential.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 182,570 down 1,382 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 14 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market opened on a positive footing but remained volatile throughout the session, eventually closing in negative territory. The KSE-100 Index touched an intraday high of 184,727 and a low of 182,370 before settling at 182,570, posting a decline of 1,382 points. Total volumes on the main board stood at 443.3 million shares, with a traded value of PKR 48.9 billion.
  • The index's downturn was primarily driven by selling pressure in UBL (-2.1%, -300 points), MCB (-2.7%, -170 points), FFC (-1%, -164 points), LUCK (-2%, -151 points), and HUBC (-1.2%, -89 points). On the activity front, KEL and PIBTL dominated volumes, recording 56.3 million and 47.5 million shares, respectively.
Pakistan Cement: Profitability to drop 5% YoY in 2QFY26 – By Foundation Research

Jan 14 2026


Foundation Securities


  • FSL Cement universe profitability is forecasted to slide 5% YoY in 2QFY26 despite uptick in domestic sales and easing coal prices. This suppression in the profitability is mainly accredited to (1) normalization of gross margins, (2) higher energy cost, (3) lower exports due to Afghan border closure along with 23% YoY dip in South exports, and (4) weak prices (down 6% YoY).
  • On a quarterly basis, profitability is estimated to recede 19% QoQ in 2QFY26 owing to (1) weak domestic prices in North, (2) shift in energy mix, (3) slump in exports by 21% QoQ, and (4) attrition in other income.
Pakistan Textiles: Cotton arrivals flat YoY; remain short of target – By JS Research

Jan 14 2026


JS Global Capital


  • Pakistan Cotton Ginner’s Association (PCGA) reported flat YoY cotton production at 5.43mn bales as of Dec-2025. At the current run-rate, we expect the annual output to remain close to last year’s level of 7mn bales, implying a ~30% shortfall from the govt target of 10mn bales for FY26.
  • Sindh province reported a 3.6% YoY growth in cotton arrivals while output is down 4.4% YoY in Punjab, primarily reflecting loss of crop from floods.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 likely to resume uptrend – By JS Research

Jan 14 2026


JS Global Capital


  • KSE-100 index after making a low of 180,590 recovered to close at 183,952, up 1,567 points DoD. Volumes stood at 1,037mn shares versus 1,059mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to re-test resistance at 184,305 (yesterday's high) where a break above that will target 185,111 and 186,340 levels, respectively. However, any downside will find support between 181,590 and 182,950 levels. The momentum indicators are mixed, signaling no clear trading view. We recommend investors to 'Buy on dips', with risk defined below the 180,590 level. The support and resistance are at 181,593 and 185,308 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Pakistan could earn up to $60 billion from defence exports: report – By WE Research

Jan 14 2026



  • A report by KASB securities highlights that Pakistan’s defence export pipeline could generate up to $60 billion between 2026 and 2030. The report notes that tracked defence deals already amount to $13 billion, with additional potential agreements under negotiation. Improved diplomatic standing following operation Bunyan e Marsous has strengthened Pakistan’s geostrategic defence ties, opening new export-driven opportunities. Defence exports are expected to become a significant driver of external economic indicators and foreign exchange inflows.
  • This development is positive for the Pakistan stock exchange (PSX). Defence related industries, particularly listed companies in engineering, heavy manufacturing, and technology, could see investor interest rise due to anticipated export revenues. The inflow of foreign exchange would strengthen Pakistan’s external accounts, potentially stabilizing the rupee and improving investor sentiment. Broader market confidence may increase as defence exports diversify Pakistan’s revenue streams, reducing reliance on traditional sectors like textiles and agriculture.
Morning News: Trump hits Iran trade partners with tariffs – By Shajar Research

Jan 14 2026


Shajar Capital


  • US President Donald Trump announced a 25-percent tariff on any country doing business with Iran, ramping up pressure as a rights group estimated a crackdown on protests has killed at least 648 people. (BR)
  • Asian shares edged up on Wednesday, as a weaker yen fueled a record-breaking rally in Japanese equities. (Bloomberg)
Morning News: Oil Steadies After Four-Day Rally with Focus on Iran Meeting – By Spectrum Research

Jan 14 2026


Spectrum Securities


  • Oil steadied after the biggest four-day gain in more than six months, as US officials planned to discuss Iran during a White House meeting.
  • The Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) on Tuesday proposed 183 major amendments in the Companies Act, 2017 to reduce regulatory burden on companies and improve the ease of doing business in Pakistan by streamlining the process of regulatory compliances.
Morning News: WB projects GDP growth at 3pc – By HMFS Research

Jan 14 2026


HMFS Research


  • Pakis-tan’s GDP growth is projected to remain at 3 percent in fiscal year 2025–26 before rising to 3.4 percent in fiscal year 2026–27, driven by a recovery in agricultural production and reconstruction efforts following a series of floods in 2025, the World Bank said. However, Pakistan current account deficit is expected to widen in fiscal year 2026-27, with a rise in import demand, alongside the strengthening growth, and post-flood normalization of remittance inflows, the Bank stated in its latest report on Global Economic Prospects.
  • Minister for Petroleum held a meeting with Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Ibrahim Al-Khorayef and exchanged views on strengthening bilateral cooperation in the mining and minerals sector, exploring joint investment opportunities, and enhancing collaboration across the mineral value chain. The federal minister is currently in Riyadh, leading a Pakistani delegation at the Future Minerals Forum (FMF) 2026, hosted by the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. On the sidelines of the forum, the Saudi minister noted that global focus has increasingly shifted towards mining and critical minerals. He highlighted the vast potential for Pakistan–Saudi cooperation in the minerals sector and assured that Saudi Arabia’s knowledge resources and technical expertise would be available to support Pakistan’s mineral sector.
Pakistan Cements: Acquisitions and expansion; Implication for the sector – By Insight Research

Jan 12 2026


Insight Securities


  • The cement sector remains in the spotlight following recent industry acquisitions, as major players are focusing on consolidation. While, new capacity expansion has been announced by one manufacturer, at a time when industry capacity utilization is already below psychological threshold of 60%. Encouragingly, demand indicators have begun to show signs of recovery, with local cement dispatches posting a growth of 13% during 6MFY26. Nevertheless, domestic consumption remains below FY22 levels, highlighting the substantial demand potential. The key uncertainty, however, revolves around the timing and magnitude of this demand recovery.
  • The announcement of capacity expansion in the northern region has reignited concerns around the possibility of a price war. We believe such risks remain remote at this stage, despite sub optimal utilization levels. This view is supported by the industry’s strong pricing discipline, which has remained intact since last three years, despite utilization level standing below 60%, in contrast to earlier cycles. Furthermore, ongoing consolidation has materially enhanced the industry structure, as reflected in the market share of the top five manufacturers, which increased from ~54% in FY17 to ~65% in FY22, and is now expected to rise further to ~76% following recent acquisitions and post capacity addition. Given this backdrop, we continue to prefer cement manufacturers with strong balance sheets, lower leverage and diversified revenue streams, which are better positioned to navigate near term volatility.
Pakistan Economy: Dec’25 CPI likely to clock in at 5.8% - By Insight Research

Dec 31 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is estimated at ~5.8% for Dec’25, compared to ~4.1% in SPLY and ~6.2% in preceding month. On MoM basis, inflation is expected to fell by ~0.2%. The decline is primarily led by softer food prices, in line with seasonal trend. To highlight, food basket is expected to record a MoM decline of ~1.5%. While, higher Policy rate vs. Inflation 45% 40% 35% 30% LPG price is likely to lift housing index by ~0.4% MoM. This will take 6MFY26 average inflation to 5.2% compared to 7.3% in SPLY. Core inflation is likely to remain sticky at 7.1% and 8.3% for urban and rural baskets, respectively.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, LPG (14.9↑%), Cooking oil (3.1↑%), Eggs (2.2%↑), Chicken (2.1%↑) & Vegetable ghee (1.8%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Tomatoes (51.7%↓), Onions (30.7%↓), Potatoes (18.8%↓), Sugar (9.0%↓) & Pulse gram (3.9%↓).
Pakistan Strategy: Pakistan Investment Strategy – By Insight Research

Dec 19 2025


Insight Securities


  • ‘2026’– Momentum to continue: Pakistan’s equity market continued its phenomenal performance in CY25, extending the strong momentum started in Jun’23. The index has delivered ~49% YTD return, while the cumulative return since Jun’23 stands at an impressive ~315%. We believe the market still offers meaningful upside and the rally is expected to continue into next calendar year where we expect KSE-100 index to reach 213,600 by Dec’26, although in a less broad based manner. Our thesis is supported by i) noticeable stabilization in key economic indicators over recent quarters under IMF’s watch, ii) a sharp decline in policy rate and iii) favorable commodity prices. Furthermore, energy sector reforms have remained a central priority for policymakers as well as the IMF. While significant progress has been made, considerable work still needs to be done. These reform gives us confidence that energy chain will continue to shape the narrative in 2026, with the upstream segment positioned as a primary beneficiary.
  • From an asset allocation standpoint, despite a robust rally and substantial re-rating, PSX continues to offer superior return potential relative to other asset classes. The sharp decline in policy rates has reduced the attractiveness of fixed income instruments, although the gap between equity earnings yields and money market returns has narrowed compared to previous years. Nonetheless, we expect domestic liquidity to remain a key driver for market performance, supported by continued formalization and channeling of household savings into the system. Moreover, successful progress on landmark projects like Reko Diq, along with anticipated FDI inflows into the mining and E&P sectors, is likely to bolster foreign investor participation. From a broader global perspective, downgrade in US growth expectations driven by policy uncertainty and tariff volatility, challenges the narrative of US exceptionalism. In this backdrop, emerging markets may regain investors attention due to their relative resilience. Pakistan, despite being a very small player, could benefit from potential spillovers.
Pakistan Economy: MPC statement & analyst briefing takeaways – By Insight Research

Dec 15 2025


Insight Securities


  • In today’s MPC meeting, SBP has reduced the policy rate by 50bps to 10.5%. The decision came as surprise to many but remain in line with demands of business community who were asking the authorities to reduce policy rate amid challenging business environment. The committee highlighted that average inflation remained in line with SBP’s target range. While core inflation remains sticky. Economic activity has also recorded an uptick as evident by economic indicators. They also highlighted that despite improvement in macro framework, uncertain global prices can impact the macroeconomic outlook particularly exports.
  • Key developments highlighted by the MPC includes increase in unemployment rate in Labor Force Survey 2024-25 despite higher growth in overall employment compared to previous survey, increase in SBP’s FX reserves even after debt repayment, improvement in consumer confidence, healthy primary surplus on the back of SBP profit and fluid global environment.
Roshan Packages Limited (RPL): Analyst briefing takeaways – By Insight Research

Nov 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • RPL posted topline of PKR9.7bn in FY25 vs. PKR10.3bn in SPLY, down by ~6% YoY. Similarly, company’s PAT fell by ~33% YoY mainly due to inflationary pressure and demand contraction. In 1QFY26, company’s revenue recorded an increase of ~28% YoY.
  • Regarding lower gross margins, management mentioned that due to subdued demand company is unable to pass on the inflationary pressure. However, company is focused on increasing its market share.
Oil & Gas Exploration: From caution to conviction – By Insight Research

Nov 26 2025


Insight Securities


  • After several years of stagnation and structural inefficiencies, Pakistan’s upstream oil and gas sector is poised for a long awaited inflection point. The government’s renewed focus on energy sector reforms, particularly pass through of energy tariffs along with emphasis on clearance of accumulated circular debt, has begun to restore optimism across the E&P chain. With meaningful progress visible on both policy and fiscal fronts, the market’s perception of the E&P sector is gradually shifting from caution to conviction.
  • At the same time, companies are taking proactive steps to sustain and enhance production level. Leading E&P companies are ramping up exploration activity, acquiring new blocks and accelerating drillings to secure long term output stability. This is reflected in the sector’s reserves with leading listed E&P companies achieving a reserve replacement ratio of over 100% in FY25.
Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC): Strong earnings with shariah push – By Insight Research

Nov 12 2025


Insight Securities


  • FFC has delivered capital gain of ~29% during CYTD, supported by robust profitability despite weak agronomic conditions. The company’s earnings have been boosted by dividend income from its subsidiaries and associates, generating steady dividend income. Along with this, significant cash reserves also contributes to bottom line by generating other income. The said trend is expected to continue, driven by recurring dividend inflows and an anticipated recovery in offtakes.
  • The combination of robust cashflow generation and strong balance sheet provides FFC with the flexibility to pursue growth opportunities. Company is exploring the feasibility of a Thar coal gasification project, which, if materialized, would provide a reliable and cost-effective feedstock source and potentially enable urea exports. Additionally, the proposed gas supply from Mari Gas Field to FFC’s Port Qasim plant could reduce feedstock costs and enhance margins going forward.
Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited (MLCF): Analyst briefing takeaways – By Insight Research

Nov 7 2025


Insight Securities


  • Maple Leaf Cement Pakistan has conducted its analyst briefing to discuss its financial result and outlook. We have summarized following key takeaways from the briefing.
  • According to the management, company’s retention price stood at PKR15,195/ton in 1QFY26.
  • Regarding demand outlook, management expect a double digit growth in FY26. To note, local demand increased by 18.8% in 4MFY25.
Hub Power Company Limited (HUBC): 1QFY26 EPS clocked in at PKR9.0 – By Insight Research

Oct 30 2025


Insight Securities


  • HUBC has announced its 1QFY26 results wherein the company has posted consolidated PAT of PKR11.6bn (EPS: PKR9.0) vs. PKR19.1bn (EPS: PKR14.7), down by 39% YoY. The result is inline with our expectations.
  • Revenue of the company decreased by 46% YoY, to clock in at PKR17.4bn in 1QFY26, due to termination of base plant and tariff renegotiation of NEL plant. While on QoQ basis, same is down by 7%.
  • Share of profit from associates increased by 4% YoY to clock in at PKR10.8bn.
Pakistan Economy: Oct’25 CPI likely to clock in at 5.8% - By Insight Research

Oct 29 2025


Insight Securities


  • Headline inflation is estimated at ~5.8% for Oct’25, compared to ~7.2% in SPLY and ~5.6% in preceding month. On MoM basis, inflation is expected to inch up by ~1.4%, primarily driven by a ~2.2% increase in food prices coupled with 1.8% increase in housing index. The increase in food index is mainly led by higher prices of wheat, onion and tomato. While increase in housing index is attributable to quarterly adjustment in house rent coupled with higher FCA.
  • Within the SPI basket, items that recorded significant increase in prices during the period are as follows, Tomato (63.9↑%), Onions (15.7↑%), Wheat flour (6.8%↑), Eggs (5.4%↑) & Fresh vegetables (2.3%↑). On the flip side, prices of the following items eased off during the month, Chicken (23.4%↓), Fresh fruits (12.9%↓), Pulse gram (3.9%↓), Potatoes (3.1%↓) & Pulse moong (1.2%↓).