Pakistan Market Wrap: Gains Locked, Caution Rules: KSE-100 Navigates Profit-Taking Waves – By HMFS Research

Jan 15 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index remained under pressure during today’s session, extending the ongoing profit-taking phase as investors continued to lock in gains at elevated valuations. Sentiment was tempered by international market jitters, which weighed on risk appetite across the board. That said, improving domestic economic fundamentals provided partial support, resulting in selective buying across certain sectors and allowing the benchmark to briefly trade in positive territory during the session. However, selling pressure resurfaced in the latter half, dragging the index back into the red, where it ultimately closed at 181,456, down 1,113 points from the previous close.
  • Market participation remained healthy, with 281mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and 818mn shares changing hands in the broader market. Leading volume contributors for the day were HASCOL (63mn), MDTL (44mn), and NCPL (37mn). Market activity reflects a cautious yet constructive stance, with investors balancing selective accumulation in value-driven names against profit realization at stretched levels. Global developments are likely to remain a key swing factor in near-term market direction. Meanwhile, ongoing discussions surrounding potential defence equipment exports present a medium-term catalyst, as successful execution could support external reserves and strengthen sentiment. In this backdrop, investors are advised to remain vigilant, adopt a disciplined approach, and focus on fundamentally strong stocks offering sustainable long-term growth.
Oil & Gas Exploration: E&Ps profitability likely to decline by 15% YoY and 7% QoQ in 2QFY26 – By Topline Research

Jan 16 2026


Topline Securities


  • We expect Topline E&P universe to post a 15% YoY decline in earnings in 2QFY26, primarily due to a decline in gas production and oil prices.
  • Oil production averaged 64.7k bpd during the quarter, reflecting a 2% YoY increase, while gas production fell 4% to around 2,732 mmcfd. The impact of this decline in gas volumes was compounded by a 13% YoY decrease in Arab Light crude prices, which averaged USD65.37/barrel in 2QFY26. In addition, a 48% YoY decline in other income, driven by the absence of one-off gains and a lower interest rate, is likely to further weigh on profitability.
  • On a sequential basis, sector earnings are expected to witness a 7% decline, despite a 4% improvement in oil volumes during the quarter, as the decline in gas production combined with weaker oil prices is likely to more than offset the gains.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Testing the support range – By JS Research

Jan 16 2026


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the decline to close at 181,456, down 1,113 points DoD. Volumes stood at 820mn shares versus 1,034mn shares traded previously. The index is likely to test support between 180,590 and 180,790 levels as a drop below that will target 179,043 level. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 181,985-183,720 levels. The RSI and the MACD have continued to move down, supporting a negative view. Investors are recommended to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance are at 180,254 and 183,188 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Govt hikes levy on petrol, HOBC, HSD – By HMFS Research

Jan 16 2026


HMFS Research


  • The government on Thursday increased the Petroleum Levy (PL) on petrol by Rs4.62 per litre and high-speed diesel (HSD) by Re0.80, effectively denying consumers any relief as it opted to maintain the existing pump prices for the next fortnight. The PL on High Octane Blending Component (HOBC) was also raised by Rs4.62 per litre, pushing the total PL on petrol and HOBC from Rs79.62 to Rs84.27 per litre.
  • The PL on HSD has risen to Rs76.21 per litre from Rs75.41. In addition, the government continues to collect a Climate Support Levy (CSL) of Rs2.50 per litre on petrol, HSD and HOBC. Consumers of kerosene and light diesel oil also face a PL of Rs20.36 and Rs15.84 per litre, respectively. Fuel prices are further impacted by the Inland Freight Equalization Margin (IFEM), which stands at Rs8.97 per litre on petrol and Rs7.25 per litre on HSD.
Pakistan Economy: Monetary Policy Survey – By Topline Research

Jan 15 2026


Topline Securities


  • State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is scheduled to hold the first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of 2026 on Jan 26, 2026. Unlike previous poll of Dec 2025 MPC meeting, where 70% were expecting status quo, now 80% are expecting a rate cut.
  • Out of 80% rate cut participants, 56.4% expect 50bps cut, 15.4% expect 100bps cut, 5% expect 25 bps cut and 3% expect 75bps cut.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 15 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced a volatile session, hitting an intraday high of 183,717.53 before closing at 181,456.33, down 1,113 points (-0.61%) as profit-taking set in. Selling pressure was evident across key sectors, particularly Commercial Banks, accounting for almost half of total index losses, while technology and Oil & Gas E&P names also saw heavy selling.
  • On the macro front, the Government of Pakistan signed an MoU with SC Financial Technologies LLC, an affiliate of World Liberty Financial USA, to promote next-generation digital payment systems and cross-border financial innovation. Separately, customs authorities achieved a key industry-wide reform by mandating the application of official bank exchange rates for international shipping charges, effectively curbing arbitrary and excessive billing practices. Among major laggards, UBL, ENGROH, SYS, MCB and EFERT, which cumulatively shaved - 622.17 points off the benchmark. HASCOL led trading with 62.65 million shares, as total market turnover reached 817.95 mn shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Gains Locked, Caution Rules: KSE-100 Navigates Profit-Taking Waves – By HMFS Research

Jan 15 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index remained under pressure during today’s session, extending the ongoing profit-taking phase as investors continued to lock in gains at elevated valuations. Sentiment was tempered by international market jitters, which weighed on risk appetite across the board. That said, improving domestic economic fundamentals provided partial support, resulting in selective buying across certain sectors and allowing the benchmark to briefly trade in positive territory during the session. However, selling pressure resurfaced in the latter half, dragging the index back into the red, where it ultimately closed at 181,456, down 1,113 points from the previous close.
  • Market participation remained healthy, with 281mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and 818mn shares changing hands in the broader market. Leading volume contributors for the day were HASCOL (63mn), MDTL (44mn), and NCPL (37mn). Market activity reflects a cautious yet constructive stance, with investors balancing selective accumulation in value-driven names against profit realization at stretched levels. Global developments are likely to remain a key swing factor in near-term market direction. Meanwhile, ongoing discussions surrounding potential defence equipment exports present a medium-term catalyst, as successful execution could support external reserves and strengthen sentiment. In this backdrop, investors are advised to remain vigilant, adopt a disciplined approach, and focus on fundamentally strong stocks offering sustainable long-term growth.
Pakistan Market Wrap: View from the Desk – By JS Research

Jan 15 2026


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index endured a volatile session today, closing at 181,456 points, down 0.6%. Despite a nearly intraday rally, the market succumbed to renewed selling pressure amid profit-taking. This bearish sentiment was primarily triggered by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over a potential reacceleration of inflation due to rising energy costs and external sector imbalances. While current volatility persists, the long-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic. If corporate earnings for the upcoming quarter exceed expectations and regional stability improves, the index is well-positioned to resume its trajectory toward the 187,000 resistance zone.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 181,456 down 1,113 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 15 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market opened on a positive note but failed to maintain momentum. The KSE-100 Index reached an intraday high of 183,718 and a low of 180,784 before closing at 181,456, registering a decline of 1,113 points. Total volumes on the main board stood at 279 million shares, with a traded value of PKR 31 billion.
  • The index’s decline was largely driven by selling pressure in key stocks, including UBL (-1.2%, -172 points), ENGROH (-1.8%, -146 points), SYS (-2.3%, -113 points), MCB (-1.6%, -99 points), and EFERT (-1.8%, -91 points). On the activity front, BOP and PTC led volumes with traded shares of 28.6 million and 19 million, respectively.
Close - End Mutual Fund: Mutual Funds’ AUM tripled over the past 3-years – By JS Research

Jan 15 2026


JS Global Capital


  • As per the data compiled from MUFAP, mutual fund assets under management (AUMs) have tripled over the past three years, recording 11% YoY growth in Dec-2025.
  • Within total AUMs, investments in equity portfolios increased by 56%, while allocations to debt portfolios (income, fixed income, and money market funds) increased by 5% in CY25. Resultantly, equity’s share of total AUMs rose from a low of 10% in Dec-23 to 15% in Dec-25.
  • Ample domestic liquidity and improved equity market attractiveness have not only absorbed FIPI outflows but have also supported a broad-based market re-rating, with valuations rising from 3.5x in Dec-23 to 8x in Dec-25, with further upside potential.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Expected to trade in a range – By JS Research

Jan 15 2026


JS Global Capital


  • KSE-100 index showed negative movement to close at 182,570 level, down 1,382 points DoD. Volumes stood at 1,034mn shares versus 1,037mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to re-test support at 182,370 (yesterday's low) where a fall below that will target the recent low at 180,590. However, any upside will face resistance between 183,220 and 184,730 range, where a break above that will target 185,111 and 186,340 levels. The indicators are mixed, signaling no clear trading view. We recommend investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance are at 181,718 and 184,074 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Govt hikes levy on petrol, HOBC, HSD – By HMFS Research

Jan 16 2026


HMFS Research


  • The government on Thursday increased the Petroleum Levy (PL) on petrol by Rs4.62 per litre and high-speed diesel (HSD) by Re0.80, effectively denying consumers any relief as it opted to maintain the existing pump prices for the next fortnight. The PL on High Octane Blending Component (HOBC) was also raised by Rs4.62 per litre, pushing the total PL on petrol and HOBC from Rs79.62 to Rs84.27 per litre.
  • The PL on HSD has risen to Rs76.21 per litre from Rs75.41. In addition, the government continues to collect a Climate Support Levy (CSL) of Rs2.50 per litre on petrol, HSD and HOBC. Consumers of kerosene and light diesel oil also face a PL of Rs20.36 and Rs15.84 per litre, respectively. Fuel prices are further impacted by the Inland Freight Equalization Margin (IFEM), which stands at Rs8.97 per litre on petrol and Rs7.25 per litre on HSD.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Gains Locked, Caution Rules: KSE-100 Navigates Profit-Taking Waves – By HMFS Research

Jan 15 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index remained under pressure during today’s session, extending the ongoing profit-taking phase as investors continued to lock in gains at elevated valuations. Sentiment was tempered by international market jitters, which weighed on risk appetite across the board. That said, improving domestic economic fundamentals provided partial support, resulting in selective buying across certain sectors and allowing the benchmark to briefly trade in positive territory during the session. However, selling pressure resurfaced in the latter half, dragging the index back into the red, where it ultimately closed at 181,456, down 1,113 points from the previous close.
  • Market participation remained healthy, with 281mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and 818mn shares changing hands in the broader market. Leading volume contributors for the day were HASCOL (63mn), MDTL (44mn), and NCPL (37mn). Market activity reflects a cautious yet constructive stance, with investors balancing selective accumulation in value-driven names against profit realization at stretched levels. Global developments are likely to remain a key swing factor in near-term market direction. Meanwhile, ongoing discussions surrounding potential defence equipment exports present a medium-term catalyst, as successful execution could support external reserves and strengthen sentiment. In this backdrop, investors are advised to remain vigilant, adopt a disciplined approach, and focus on fundamentally strong stocks offering sustainable long-term growth.
Morning News: Pakistan on list as US suspends immigrant visas – By HMFS Research

Jan 15 2026


HMFS Research


  • The US State Department announced on Wednesday that it will suspend immigrant visa processing for Pakistan and 74 other countries, amid concerns that immigrants from these nations often rely on public welfare programmes, or fail security vetting. The freeze will begin on January 21, with no set time for it to end. According to AFP, the latest move does not affect tourist, business or other visas, including for soccer fans seeking to visit for this year’s World Cup, although the Trump administration has vowed to vet all applicants’ social media histories.
  • Oil prices slid more than 2% in early Asian trade on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump said killings in Iran’s crackdown on nationwide protests were stopping, tempering concern over military action against Iran and supply disruption. Brent futures were down $1.67, or 2.5%, at $64.85 a barrel at 0109 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped $1.54, or 2.5%, to $60.48 a barrel.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Correction Persists Amid Geopolitical Overhangs – By HMFS Research

Jan 14 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index remained under correction phase, extending its decline amid heightened geopolitical tensions that continued to weigh on investor sentiment. The cautious environment dragged the benchmark to close at 182,570, marking a decline of 1,382 points from the previous session. Despite the broader weakness, improving domestic economic fundamentals and the anticipation of upcoming corporate earnings provided selective support, with pockets of buying observed across specific sectors. Trading activity remained steady, with 444mn shares exchanged on the KSE-100 Index and 1.03bn shares traded in the broader market.
  • Volume leadership was dominated by KEL (56mn), WTL (56mn), and PIBTL (48mn), reflecting sustained participation despite the corrective phase. While near-term sentiment remains sensitive to geopolitical developments, potential strategic tailwinds are emerging. Prospective defence agreements with Turkey, possible defence exports to Indonesia, and advancing discussions around a minerals partnership with Saudi Arabia could strengthen foreign inflows and reinforce investor confidence, providing upside catalysts for the equity market. However, any further escalation in global or regional tensions may prolong profit taking activity. In this environment, investors are advised to maintain a vigilant and disciplined approach, focusing on fundamentally strong stocks that offer durable long-term growth potential.
Morning News: WB projects GDP growth at 3pc – By HMFS Research

Jan 14 2026


HMFS Research


  • Pakis-tan’s GDP growth is projected to remain at 3 percent in fiscal year 2025–26 before rising to 3.4 percent in fiscal year 2026–27, driven by a recovery in agricultural production and reconstruction efforts following a series of floods in 2025, the World Bank said. However, Pakistan current account deficit is expected to widen in fiscal year 2026-27, with a rise in import demand, alongside the strengthening growth, and post-flood normalization of remittance inflows, the Bank stated in its latest report on Global Economic Prospects.
  • Minister for Petroleum held a meeting with Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Ibrahim Al-Khorayef and exchanged views on strengthening bilateral cooperation in the mining and minerals sector, exploring joint investment opportunities, and enhancing collaboration across the mineral value chain. The federal minister is currently in Riyadh, leading a Pakistani delegation at the Future Minerals Forum (FMF) 2026, hosted by the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. On the sidelines of the forum, the Saudi minister noted that global focus has increasingly shifted towards mining and critical minerals. He highlighted the vast potential for Pakistan–Saudi cooperation in the minerals sector and assured that Saudi Arabia’s knowledge resources and technical expertise would be available to support Pakistan’s mineral sector.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Profit Booking at the Open, Fundamentals Drive the Close – By HMFS Research

Jan 13 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index opened the session on a cautious note, with early selling pressure emerging as investors moved to lock in gains following last week’s strong rally. Lingering geopolitical tensions also weighed on sentiment in the initial hours of trading. However, market direction improved as the session progressed, with selective value buying emerging in fundamentally strong and blue-chip stocks amid the onset of the results season. The Banking sector played a pivotal role in steering the benchmark back into positive territory. Consequently, the index reversed its early losses and closed at 183,952, registering a gain of 1,567 points from the previous close.
  • Trading activity remained steady, with volumes clocking in at 437mn shares on the KSE-100 and 1.0bn shares in the broader market. Volume leaders for the day included BOP (74mn), MDTL (67mn), and WTL (43mn). Market sentiment remains underpinned by expectations of improving economic activity and supportive corporate earnings, which could continue to drive selective upside in the benchmark. That said, intermittent bouts of profit-taking cannot be ruled out, particularly amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties. In this environment, investors are advised to maintain a measured approach and focus on fundamentally strong stocks with sustainable long-term growth prospects.
Morning News: President to undertake three-day Bahrain visit – By HMFS Research

Jan 13 2026


HMFS Research


  • President Asif Ali Zardari will undertake an official visit to the Kingdom of Bahrain from January 13-16, 2026. He will be accompanied by a high-level delegation. The visit seeks to reinforce Pakistan’s longstanding cooperation with the brotherly Gulf nation while expanding opportunities for collaboration in trade and economic partnership, defence and security, and people-to-people ties.
  • The government on Monday rolled out a long-term master plan to establish a Port Industrial Complex at Port Qasim, a project expected to strengthen Pakistan’s industrial base, boost exports and enhance the port’s role as a regional trade and logistics hub. The plan was announced by Federal Minister for Maritime Affairs Muhammad Junaid Anwar Chaudhry. During the meeting, the minister said Port Qasim’s integrated planning and phased development were designed to transform the port into a globally competitive industrial and logistics hub, aligned with Pakistan’s broader objectives of trade expansion, industrialization and blue economy growth. the master plan spans a total area of more than 14,590 acres, structured to ensure balanced industrial development, efficient port operations and sustainable land use over five decades. The maritime minister noted the industrial complex has been divided into three zones, including the North Western Zone, the Eastern Zone and the South Western Zone. “The North Western Zone, covering 3,061 acres, has been earmarked for diversified industrial activity, supporting value-added manufacturing and ancillary services linked to port operations,” he added. He said the Eastern Zone, the largest component of the complex at 7,273 acres, is being developed as the primary industrial backbone, offering space for heavy industries, export-oriented units and logistics facilities. Chaudhry added that the South Western Zone, spread over 2,258 acres, has been allocated for specialized industrial and commercial uses, while 1,997 acres of low-lying area are being managed through phased development and environmental safeguards to ensure sustainable utilization.
Pakistan Market Wrap: A Tactical Pause: Profit-Taking Dominates After Strong Upside – By HMFS Research

Jan 12 2026


HMFS Research


  • Profit-taking dominated trading at the Pakistan Stock Exchange, as investors moved to lock in gains following the recent sharp rally and elevated valuations. The selling pressure was further amplified by heightened international uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which weighed on broader risk appetite. Despite these near-term headwinds, Pakistan’s underlying economic fundamentals remain relatively stable, supporting expectations of market sustainability over the medium to long term. The correction—widely viewed as overdue—was led by the Banking and Fertilizer sectors, which exerted the most pressure on the benchmark.
  • Although the KSE-100 briefly ventured into positive territory during the session, posting a marginal intra-day gain of 29 points, renewed selling interest dragged the index lower by close. The benchmark ultimately settled at 182,384, reflecting a decline of 2,026 points. Trading activity remained steady, with 419mn shares exchanged on the KSE-100 and approximately 1.1bn shares traded across the broader market. Volume leaders for the session included FFL (66mn), WTL (51mn), and HASCOL (47mn). Looking ahead, the market is likely to remain susceptible to profit-taking pressures, particularly amid lingering geopolitical concerns. However, any easing on this front—alongside expected defence engagements of Turkey and Pak-Saudi Arabia pact—could help restore confidence. Moreover, the upcoming corporate results season may act as a near-term catalyst, offering selective support to market momentum. Investors are advised to maintain a measured approach, avoid reactive trading, and focus on fundamentally strong stocks offering sustainable long-term growth potential.
Morning News: GDP seen growing 3.5pc in 2026 – By HMFS Research

Jan 12 2026


HMFS Research


  • Pakistan’s economy is expected to expand by a modest 3.5 per cent in 2026, as implementation of the reform programme under the IMF remains robust, with economic recovery on track, says the ‘World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026’ published by the United Nations.
  • The report, released by the United Nations Department of Social Affairs (DESA) and made available to Dawn on Friday, notes that the current account posted a surplus for the FY25, the fiscal primary balance exceeded targets, inflation remained contained, and external buffers strengthened. However, adverse shocks like the recent floods pose significant threats to economic and development progress, increasing risk to economic growth, fiscal consolidation and poverty reduction efforts, the report fears.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 Reprices on Profit-Taking – By HMFS Research

Jan 9 2026


HMFS Research


  • The market extended its corrective phase as investors continued to lock in gains following the recent sharp rally. Selling pressure remained broad-based, with pronounced weakness in index-heavy names exerting downward pressure on the benchmark throughout the session. The index experienced heightened volatility, shedding up to 1,842 points intraday, reflecting cautious sentiment and aggressive profit-booking at elevated levels. Despite intermittent recovery attempts, the lack of sustained buying interest led the index to close at 184,410 level, down 1,133 points.
  • Trading activity remained robust, with 393mn shares exchanged in the KSE-100, while volumes on the All-Share Index stood at 1.0bn shares. Active participation was seen in FFL (76mn shares), HASCOL (68mn shares), and MDTL (56mn shares). Going forward, the market is likely to remain volatile amid ongoing profit-taking and elevated geopolitical tensions, which could intermittently weigh on investor sentiment. While these factors may limit near-term upside, selective buying interest may emerge on further corrections, particularly in fundamentally strong names, as broader macro developments and policy-related expectations continue to provide underlying support. Investors are advised to remain cautious, maintain disciplined positioning, and utilize market pullbacks for strategic accumulation.