Morning News: SBP chief expects broader recovery than IMF forecast – By HMFS Research

Feb 12 2026

HMFS Research

• Central bank chief expects the economy to grow as much as 4.75 percent this fiscal year, pushing back against a recent downgrade by the International Monetary Fund. Governor Jameel Ahmad, in written responses to Reuters, argued the recovery is broader and more durable than headline export data suggest. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised its FY26 growth forecast to 3.75–4.75 percent at its January meeting, 0.5 percentage point higher than its previous range, despite a contraction in exports in the first half of the year and a widening trade deficit.

• The Finance Minister welcomed Pommersheim, Deputy Assistant Secretary, and appreciated the longstanding support and engagement of the United States in Pakistan’s economic development, particularly cooperation in multilateral financial frameworks. Both sides exchanged views on Pakistan’s economic outlook, reform agenda, and avenues for enhancing bilateral economic cooperation. The Finance Minister also highlighted growing investor confidence, citing recent indigenous investment initiatives and increased private-sector participation.

Morning News: Saudi Arabia eyes Pakistan’s rice sector – By IIS Research

Feb 12 2026

Ismail Iqbal Securities

• Saudi Arabia has shown interest in investing in corporate farming in Pakistan’s rice sector to ensure a stable, reliable supply of rice through structured, long-term arrangements between the two countries.

• The Saudi government has dispatched a high-level delegation to Pakistan to explore avenues of cooperation in various sectors, apparently to finalise a priority agenda ahead of the expected visit of Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman.

Bank AL Habib (BAHL): Result Review – By Topline Research

Feb 11 2026

Topline Securities

• Bank AL Habib (BAHL) announced its 4Q2025 result today, where the bank recorded consolidated earnings of Rs5.8bn (EPS of Rs5.20), down 23% YoY and 16% QoQ.

• The 4Q2025 result came lower than industry expectations due to higher-than-expected operating expenses.

• We maintain a buy stance on BAHL, with the stock currently trading at a 2026E PE ratio of 7.2x, PBV ratio of 1.2x, and dividend yield of 9.0%.

Pakistan Market Wrap: PSX Ends Higher Despite Choppy Trade – By HMFS Research

Feb 11 2026

HMFS Research

• The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced a choppy yet decisively positive session, as early selling pressure dragged the index lower before a strong recovery took hold mid-morning. Sentiment improved after the State Bank of Pakistan’s governor signaled confidence in the economic outlook, projecting FY26 growth of up to 4.75%—countering the IMF’s recent downgrade. The SBP has revised its growth range upward to 3.75–4.75%, reflecting improved domestic momentum despite weaker exports and a widening trade gap in the first half of the fiscal year. Additionally, remittance inflows provided further support, rising over 11% YoY to USD 23.2bn during 7MFY26, reinforcing external account stability.

• Strong accumulation in the final trading hours propelled the benchmark index firmly into positive territory, with the KSE-100 closing at 183,050 level—up 896 points. Market participation remained elevated, with traded volumes reaching 350mn shares on the KSE-100 and 731mn shares on the All-Share Index, reflecting sustained investor engagement. KEL (121mn shares), CNERGY (82mn shares), and FNEL (52mn shares) led the activity chart, dominating turnover for the session. In the short term, the market is likely to move within a limited range as investors assess elevated valuations alongside selective earnings strength and evolving macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape. Given this backdrop, a disciplined, stock-specific strategy remains prudent. Investors should capitalize on intermittent pullbacks to build exposure in fundamentally strong counters, while exercising caution in index-heavy names where valuations appear extended.

Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 183,050 up 896 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Feb 11 2026

Alpha Capital

• The equity market commenced the session on a strong footing and remained largely steady throughout the day. However, the KSE-100 Index witnessed notable intraday volatility, fluctuating between a low of 182,055 and a high of 183,802 before settling at 183,050, reflecting a gain of 896 points. Total volumes on the main board reached 349.6 million shares, with an aggregate traded value of PKR 25 billion.

• Key contributors to the index’s positive performance were ENGROH (4.4%, 412 points), LUCK (2.5%, 172 points), FABL (9.1%, 126 points), MCB (2.1%, 124 points), and BAFL (2.9%, 86 points). In terms of trading activity, KEL and CNERGY led the volumes chart, recording 120.6 million and 81.6 million shares traded, respectively.

Pakistan Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note – By IIS Research

Feb 11 2026

Ismail Iqbal Securities

• The benchmark index closed on a positive note after an initial dip at the start of the session. Trading activity remained largely stock specific in the absence of any strong positive trigger, as investors positioned themselves ahead of the ongoing results season. Trading volumes decreased to 350mn shares today as compared to 636mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 896 points to close at 183,050 level, up by 0.49% DoD. Banks, Cement, and Power sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 619 points to the index.

Pakistan Chemicals: Profitability to remain muted – By Insight Research

Feb 11 2026

Insight Securities

• LOTCHEM is expected to post a PAT of PKR263mn (EPS: PKR0.17) in 4QCY25 vs. LAT of PKR19mn (LPS: PKR0.01) in SPLY and PAT of PKR94mn (EPS: PKR0.06) in preceding quarter. To note, International PTA prices plunged by ~4%/2% YoY/QoQ to clock in at ~US$644/ton. Consequently, core delta declined by ~16%/5% YoY/QoQ to clock in at ~US$86/ton. Company’s topline is expected to decrease by 4% YoY/QoQ to clock in at PKR19.6bn in 4QCY25 amid lower product prices. Gross margins of the company are estimated to clock in at 2.6% in 4QCY25, witnessing an increase of ~180bps YoY amid one-off in SPLY.

• EPCL is expected to post a consolidated LAT of PKR1.2bn (LPS: PKR1.30) in 4QCY25 vs. PAT of PKR3.4bn (EPS: PKR3.75) in SPLY and LAT of PKR0.2bn (LPS: PKR0.24) in preceding quarter. Company’s topline is expected to decrease by 15%/10% YoY/QoQ to clock in at PKR18.0bn in 4QCY25, amid lower product price. Gross margins are estimated to clock in at 6.2% in 4QCY25. To note, International PVC prices decline by ~19%/7% YoY/QoQ to clock in at ~US$649/ton. Consequently, PVC-Ethylene margins witnessed a decline of ~16%/1% YoY/QoQ. Admin expense is expected to increase by 26% YoY amid higher volumetric sales, whereas same is expected to go down by ~10% QoQ. Financial charges are anticipated to decrease by 24%/6% YoY/QoQ to clock in at PKR1.3bn, primarily due to decline in interest rates and debt level.

Pioneer Cement Limited (PIOC): 2QFY26 EPS clocks in at PKR 7.04, down 9% YoY – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Feb 11 2026

Alpha Capital

• PIOC announced its 2QFY26 results today wherein the company reported an EPS of PKR 7.04, down 9% YoY. This takes cumulative earnings for 1HFY26 to PKR 12.65/share, up 4% YoY. Contrary to expectations, no dividend was announced along with the results.

• Net sales for 2QFY26 clock in at PKR 10.3bn, up 15% YoY from PKR 8.9bn SPLY, driven by a 28% YoY increase in local dispatches to ~0.7mn tons, outpacing the North’s 12% YoY growth and offsetting a 4% YoY decline in net retention.

• Gross margins for 2QFY26 clocked in at 30%, down 12 ppts YoY primarily reflecting the effect of increased royalty charge on 6% of ex-factory price instead of net retention. The compression in margins also reflect upward pressure on fuel cost driven by Afghan border closure.

Pakistan Economy: Sequential dip likely for Banks – By JS Research

Feb 11 2026

JS Global Capital

• We preview 4QCY25 results for Pakistan banks which are expected to broadly report YoY decline in core income due to NIMs contraction amid declining yields.

• Quarterly profits are likely to face pressure from weaker core income and declining asset yields, though non-interest income should offer partial support. Dividend policies for 4QCY25 are expected to be maintained.

Lucky Core Industries Limited (LCI): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Feb 13 2026

• Lucky Core Industries Limited reported earnings per share (EPS) of PKR 120.62 in FY24, compared to PKR 149.12 in FY23. In 1QFY25, the company posted an EPS of PKR 28.10, slightly higher than PKR 27.21 in the same period last year.

• The polyester and pharmaceutical segments performed well during the year, driving improved operating performance.