Morning News: IMF seeks clarity on $11b trade data gap – By HMFS Research

Oct 6 2025


HMFS Research


  • The IMF has asked Pakistan to publicly disclose $11 billion worth of discrepancies in trade data reported by two government entities over the last two fiscal years, raising questions about the credibility of the country's external sector indicators. Government sources told The Express Tribune that imports reported by Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL) were $5.1 billion lower than those reported by Pakistan Single Window (PSW) for fiscal year 2023-24. The difference widened further to $5.7 billion in the following fiscal year, they added.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has arrived in Malaysia on a three-day official visit at the invitation of his Malaysian counterpart Anwar Ibrahim, PM Office said on Sunday. During the visit, Prime Minister Shehbaz will hold talks with his Malaysian counterpart, while the two sides will also engage in delegation-level discussions.
Pakistan Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a positive note – By IIS Research

Oct 20 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a positive note, gradually gaining throughout the session as easing geopolitical pressures and optimism around the ongoing results season lifted sentiment. The market further strengthened toward the close following positive news of a current account surplus of USD 110 million. Trading volumes increased to 704mn shares today as compared to 500mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index gained 2,437 points to close at 166,243 level, up by 1.49% DoD. Commercial Banks, Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, and Fertilizer sectors were the major contributors in today's session, cumulatively adding 1786 points to the index.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 166,243 up 2,437 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Oct 20 2025


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market opened on a strong note and maintained its upward trajectory throughout the session. The KSE-100 Index recorded an intraday high of 166,421 and a low of 164,282, before closing at 166,243, reflecting a significant gain of 2,437 points. Trading activity remained vibrant, with a total volume of 703.7 million shares and a traded value of approximately PKR 36.4 billion.
  • Key contributors to the index’s rise included HBL (4.8%, 285 points), UBL (2.2%, 255 points), BOP (10%, 167 points), NBP (4.1%, 144 points), and AKBL (10%, 138 points). On the volume side, KEL and BOP dominated with 229.3 million and 184.4 million shares traded, respectively.
  • Following a healthy phase of correction and consolidation, the market has begun to regain positive momentum. While short-term volatility may persist, the medium- to long-term outlook remains positive, bolstered by the upcoming corporate earnings season. Robust dividend announcements, particularly from Banks and Fertilizer companies, are anticipated. Investors are advised to focus on fundamentally strong sectors—including E&Ps, OMCs, Fertilizers, and Banks—which offer a combination of attractive dividend yields and sustainable growth potential.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Bulls Regain Control as Optimism Returns to the Bourse – By Topline Research

Oct 20 2025


Topline Securities


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed a strong bullish rally on the KSE-100 index, as renewed optimism lifted investor sentiment across the board. The benchmark surged 2,615 points intraday, driven by improving geopolitical conditions and encouraging macroeconomic signals. Investor confidence strengthened as Pak–Afghan border tensions eased, following the peace talks held in Doha, while positive economic developments added further momentum. Additionally, the Finance Minister’s projection of 3.5–4% GDP growth for FY25— despite the challenges posed by recent monsoon floods—further reinforced market optimism.
  • Amid this upbeat sentiment, the benchmark KSE-100 Index gained 2,356 points over the previous close, settling at 166,242 level. Trading activity remained robust, with 704mn shares changing hands on the KSE-100 and 1.47bn shares traded in the broader market. KEL (229mn), WTL (223mn), and BOP (184mn) emerged as the top volume leaders for the session. Looking ahead, favourable macroeconomic indicators, coupled with the anticipated IMF tranche disbursement, are expected to sustain the market’s positive trajectory. Moreover, the ongoing quarterly earnings season may attract investors toward value-oriented and fundamentally strong stocks. That said, intermittent profit-taking cannot be ruled out as the index consolidates at higher levels. Investors are advised to remain vigilant, monitor market dynamics closely, and focus on stocks offering long-term growth potential.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Oct 17 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index witnessed another session of heightened volatility, touching an intraday high of 165,031 before settling at 163,806, down -638.51 points (-0.39%). Market sentiment remained cautious, with profit-taking weighing on performance as investors trimmed positions across key sectors, including automobile assemblers, cement, commercial banks, oil and gas exploration companies, OMCs, power generation and refinery.
  • On economic front, The State Bank of Pakistan’s FY25 Annual Report highlights that prudent monetary and fiscal policies, along with IMF support and favorable global conditions, strengthened macroeconomic stability, reducing inflation to an eight-year low, achieving a current account surplus, and cutting the fiscal deficit to a nine-year low. Among key index movers, MARI, UBL, HBL, POL, & ENGROH, cumulatively dragged the benchmark down by -380.52 points. WTL led volumes with 891.36 million shares; overall market turnover was 1,978.65 million shares
Pakistan Market Wrap: The benchmark index closed on a negative note – By IIS Research

Oct 17 2025


Ismail Iqbal Securities


  • The benchmark index closed on a negative note, exhibiting volatility throughout the session, primarily due to the absence of any significant positive triggers. Trading volumes decreased to 500mn shares today as compared to 1390mn shares in the previous session. Today, the KSE-100 index lost 639 points to close at 163,806 level, down by -0.39% DoD. Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, Commercial Banks, and Power Generation & Distribution sectors were the major laggards in today's session, cumulatively shedding 497 points from the index.             
Pakistan Market Wrap: Volatility Persists: KSE-100 Slips 1,300 Points – By HMFS Research

Oct 17 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market remained volatile today, trading largely in the red as sentiment oscillated between optimism and caution. The downside was primarily driven by escalating Pakistan–Afghanistan geopolitical tensions, which unsettled investors and triggered broad-based profit-taking. Further pressure emerged after Finance Minister highlighted that recent floods affecting vast agricultural areas could weigh on economic growth this year, amplifying concerns over near-term fundamentals. Consequently, the KSE-100 Index extended its decline, closing 639 points lower at 163,806 level, marking a sharp correction on the last trading session.
  • The KSE-100 index recorded 500mn shares traded, while overall market volumes surged to 1.98bn shares. WTL (891mn), KEL (263mn), and BOP (84mn) emerged as the day’s top volume leaders. Looking ahead, market fundamentals remain robust, underpinned by improving macroeconomic indicators, the anticipated IMF inflow, and ongoing bilateral engagements with key partners. The onset of the quarterly results season is also expected to provide fresh upward momentum to the index. While intermittent volatility and profit-taking may emerge—particularly if geopolitical tensions intensify—the overall sentiment remains constructive. Investors are advised to maintain a balanced and fundamentals-driven approach, focusing on companies with resilient earnings and sustainable growth prospects, while staying mindful of short-term market shifts.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 163,806 down 639points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Oct 17 2025


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market began the session on a strong note but experienced volatility throughout the day. The KSE-100 Index touched an intraday high of 165,031 and a low of 163,118 before settling at 163,806, marking a decline of 639 points. Trading activity remained robust, with a total volume of 550.4 million shares and a traded value of approximately PKR 22 billion.
  • Major contributors to the index’s decline included MARI (-1.5%, -91 points), UBL (-0.7%, -78 points), HBL (-1.3%, -77 points), POL (-2.4%, -68 points), and ENGROH (-0.9%, -67 points). On the volume front, KEL and BOP led the activity with 262.7 million and 84.2 million shares traded, respectively.
Pakistan Cements: Demand uptick to catalyse further rerating – By Insight Research

Oct 17 2025


Insight Securities


  • Pakistan cement sector has rallied 33% FYTD vs. KSE100’s 32% return. Despite utilization hovering at a depressed level of ~45%, sector’s profitability and stock performance have remained robust. Historically, sector valuations have moved closely in tandem with demand cycles, with P/E multiple stretching towards 10x during boom cycles and contracting to 5x in period of subdued demand. Unlike previous cycles where weak demand triggered price wars and subsequent compressed valuations, cement players have observed strict pricing discipline during current cycle.
  • With political and economic stability, deleveraged balance sheet, lower interest rates and no major capacity additions in short run, the sector appears well positioned to sustain its upward momentum, while any improvement in demand outlook remains a key upside trigger.
Pakistan Fertilizers: Fertilizer off-take down 45%MoM – By Taurus Research

Oct 17 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Total fertilizer off-take was down significantly i.e. 45%MoM in Sep’25 to 625,692 tons due to the impact of the flood devastation (late Aug’25-early Sep’25), poor farm economics as well as higher input costs which had dropped yields on the cash crops i.e. mainly wheat—likely to disrupt demand for the fertilizer products in the near-term. Elsewhere, the resumption of loan disbursement under the Kissan Card scheme and other incentive schemes may support some demand for Fertilizer products during the upcoming Rabi Season 2025-26.
  • On a YoY basis, total fertilizer off-take was up 6%YoY in Sep’25 on the back of the Government’s stance to provide incentives as well as increase in credit disbursements to the farmers to improve agronomic activities. 
Morning News: Pakistan, IMF mull raising tax rates on solar panels, internet – By Vector Research

Oct 17 2025


Vector Securities


  • Following the rejection of proposals to increase tax rates on fertilizer and pesticides, Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are considering alternative options — raising taxes on rooftop solar panels, internet services and other sectors — as contingency measures in case of a revenue shortfall. These identified contingency measures are expected to be part of the IMF’s second review report, to be released after the approval of a $1 billion tranche under the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The measures would only be triggered under two conditions: if the revenue shortfall for the first half (July-December) of the fiscal year exceeds projections, and if the Finance Ministry is unable to reduce its expenditures. (The News)
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast a gradual improvement in Pakistan’s fiscal indicators over the next five years, including a lower fiscal deficit and a reduced debt-to-GDP ratio. However, it has also warned of persistent revenue shortfalls and rising pension and health expenditures. (Dawn)
Pakistan Market Wrap: Volatility Persists: KSE-100 Slips 1,300 Points – By HMFS Research

Oct 17 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market remained volatile today, trading largely in the red as sentiment oscillated between optimism and caution. The downside was primarily driven by escalating Pakistan–Afghanistan geopolitical tensions, which unsettled investors and triggered broad-based profit-taking. Further pressure emerged after Finance Minister highlighted that recent floods affecting vast agricultural areas could weigh on economic growth this year, amplifying concerns over near-term fundamentals. Consequently, the KSE-100 Index extended its decline, closing 639 points lower at 163,806 level, marking a sharp correction on the last trading session.
  • The KSE-100 index recorded 500mn shares traded, while overall market volumes surged to 1.98bn shares. WTL (891mn), KEL (263mn), and BOP (84mn) emerged as the day’s top volume leaders. Looking ahead, market fundamentals remain robust, underpinned by improving macroeconomic indicators, the anticipated IMF inflow, and ongoing bilateral engagements with key partners. The onset of the quarterly results season is also expected to provide fresh upward momentum to the index. While intermittent volatility and profit-taking may emerge—particularly if geopolitical tensions intensify—the overall sentiment remains constructive. Investors are advised to maintain a balanced and fundamentals-driven approach, focusing on companies with resilient earnings and sustainable growth prospects, while staying mindful of short-term market shifts.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 Wavers Amid Profit-Taking and Volatility – By HMFS Research

Oct 16 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index witnessed a volatile trading session, oscillating between optimism and caution as investors weighed short-term gains against the broader economic outlook. The benchmark opened on a positive note, climbing 1,179 points intraday, driven by renewed optimism over the anticipated USD 1.2bn IMF tranche disbursement expected later this week. However, the bullish momentum faded as investors chose to book profits at higher levels, pulling the market into negative territory by the session’s close. The index ultimately settled at 164,445, down 1,242 points from the previous close. The Fertilizer and Technology sectors were the key laggards, exerting downward pressure on the benchmark.
  • Despite the correction, trading activity remained exceptionally strong, reflecting sustained investor engagement. The KSE-100 index recorded 1.39bn shares traded, while overall market volumes surged to 3.08bn shares, marking one of the highest turnover sessions in PSX history. KEL (1.02bn), WTL (953.71mn), and TELE (99.87mn) emerged as the day’s top volume leaders. Looking ahead, market fundamentals remain intact, supported by positive macroeconomic developments, including the expected IMF inflow and ongoing bilateral discussions with key allies. While intermittent volatility and short-term profit taking phases may persist, the underlying sentiment stays constructive. Investors are advised to adopt a balanced approach, focusing on fundamentally sound stocks with long-term growth potential while remaining attentive to near-term market dynamics.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Bulls Reclaim the Bourse as Calm Returns – By HMFS Research

Oct 14 2025


HMFS Research


  • After days of bearish sessions, the KSE-100 index witnessed a resounding rebound, igniting renewed optimism across the Pakistan Stock Exchange. As border tensions eased and civil conditions stabilized, investors rushed toward value buying, capitalizing on the attractive valuations created by the previous session’s dip. The return of calm and confidence spurred a buying spree, lifting the benchmark by as much as 7,423 points intraday, before closing at 165,476, marking an impressive 7,033-point gain from the previous close. The Cement and Banking sectors spearheaded today’s bullish momentum, benefiting from improved economic sentiment.
  • Further fuelling the rally were reports of the government’s ongoing efforts to finalize the IMF agreement, with markets anticipating a constructive review outcome and subsequent tranche disbursement — a development viewed as a major stabilizing catalyst for the economy. Trading activity remained vibrant, with 587mn shares changing hands on the KSE-100 index and 1.18bn shares traded across the broader market. BOP (101mn), PTC (80mn), and PACE (75mn) emerged as the top volume leaders, reflecting broad-based investor participation. Looking ahead, the restoration of border calm and improving macroeconomic landscape are expected to sustain investor confidence and maintain upward momentum. While short-term volatility and range-bound movement may follow today’s sharp gains, the market’s medium-term outlook remains constructively positive. Investors are advised to stay attuned to economic developments and continue accumulating fundamentally strong stocks with long-term growth potential.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Market Suffers a Sharp Setback Amid Geopolitical Strains – By HMFS Research

Oct 13 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index endured a turbulent session today, marked by a wave of aggressive selling pressure as investors reacted to escalating Afghan-Pakistan border tensions. The benchmark index plunged by as much as 5,420 points intraday, before paring some losses to close at 158,443, down 4,655 points from the previous session. Sentiment was further dampened by civil unrest in major cities, which intensified uncertainty and weakened investor confidence. The Banking, Cement, and Oil sectors bore the brunt of the market decline, reflecting widespread caution across key economic segments.
  • Trading activity mirrored the prevailing volatility, with 686mn shares changing hands on the KSE-100 index and 1.36bn shares traded across the broader market. KEL (197mn), BOP (97mn), and WTL (75mn) emerged as the day’s top volume leaders. Looking ahead, the market’s trajectory will depend largely on how swiftly political and border tensions ease. A rebound phase is anticipated once stability returns, with investors likely to re-enter the market on improving sentiment. However, further downside pressure cannot be ruled out in the near term as uncertainty lingers. That said, Pakistan’s underlying macroeconomic resilience and ongoing diplomatic efforts to restore calm at the border are expected to provide a cushion to the index. Investors are advised to remain vigilant, closely monitor developments, and capitalize on attractive valuations by accumulating fundamentally strong, long-term growth stocks during periods of weakness.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Caution Reigns as Volatility Tightens Its Grip on the PSX – By HMFS Research

Oct 8 2025


HMFS Research


  • Volatility from yesterday’s session carried into today with renewed intensity, as the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) endured another turbulent session. The benchmark KSE-100 Index oscillated sharply in both directions before succumbing to selling pressure, closing 907 points lower at 165,266.74. Intraday, the index slipped as much as 1,063.9 points amid persistent profit-taking. Weakness was most pronounced in the banking, fertilizer, and cement sectors, reflecting broader investor unease.
  • Sentiment turned cautious after the World Bank revised Pakistan’s GDP growth forecast downward by 50bps to 2.6% for FY26 (from 3.1% in June 2025), dampening hopes of a near-term recovery. Albeit, market activity remained robust, with volumes on the KSE-100 and All-Share indices standing at 555mn and 1.27bn shares, respectively. PTC (114mn), BOP (88mn), and KEL (87mn) emerged as the most actively traded scrips during the session. Today’s choppy performance underscores investors’ growing sensitivity to macro headwinds and global cues, particularly as growth expectations soften. Going forward, volatility is likely to persist amid shifting sentiment around the IMF review and global oil dynamics. We advise investors to maintain a selective approach, focusing on fundamentally strong, dividend-yielding blue chips, while avoiding leveraged positions until market direction becomes clearer.
Pakistan Market Wrap: PSX Retreats from Highs Amid IMF Caution and Sectoral Pullback – By HMFS Research

Oct 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • After a brief spell of optimism, the Pakistan Stock Exchange succumbed to profit taking on Tuesday, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index plunging over 1,755 points intraday before closing at 166,173.7, down 1,578.7 points (-0.94%). The sell-off was broad-based, led by commercial banks, cement, and power sectors, as investors opted to secure gains following the recent rally near record highs. Market participation remained robust, with 629.7mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and 1.26bn shares on the All-Share Index. PTC (181mn), BOP (135mn), and CNERGY (91mn) emerged as the most actively traded stocks, reflecting heightened retail and institutional activity despite the bearish tilt. Sentiment was largely shaped by uncertainty surrounding the ongoing IMF review, as investors await clarity on whether the Fund will share the draft Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) this week.
  • A mutual consensus on the MEFP could expedite a staff-level agreement, unlocking the next tranche of financing and reinforcing policy continuity. Conversely, any divergence on fiscal targets—especially post-flood rehabilitation spending—may prolong negotiations and dampen near-term confidence. In essence, the market appears to be entering a consolidation phase after months of exuberant gains, with investors shifting focus from valuation expansion to policy execution risks and the evolving macrofinancial dialogue with the IMF. Consequently, investors are advised to tread cautiously, closely tracking developments on the IMF front, while selectively accumulating blue-chip names on dips amid potential bouts of volatility.
Morning News: PM hails Bloomberg’s positive reports on Pak economy – By HMFS Research

Oct 7 2025


HMFS Research


  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday welcoming Bloomberg’s recent positive report on Pakistan’s economy said that the notable decrease in the price of Pakistan’s Credit Default Swap (CDS) reflected a consistent increase in global investors’ confidence in the country’s economy. According to the report, there has been a significant reduction of 2,200 basis points in the default risk implied in Pakistan’s CDS, a press statement issued by the PM Office said. Pakistan is now the second country among emerging economies, following Turkiye, in the global rankings, which is great news for our economy, the prime minister said adding that at the end of the previous government’s tenure, the country was on the brink of default.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has announced the revisions in trade data, however no major changes is expected in the current account (C/A) statistics. SBP on Monday said that in response to recently circulating news that due to recent Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) trade data revisions, there will be similar revisions in SBP trade data and current account (C/A) balance outturns as well. In this regard, SBP has clarified that SBP’s trade data is computed mainly on the basis of trade payments data received from banks; hence, there will be no significant revision in C/A balance data already published by SBP. Minor revisions may continue as per practice, the SBP said.
Morning News: IMF seeks clarity on $11b trade data gap – By HMFS Research

Oct 6 2025


HMFS Research


  • The IMF has asked Pakistan to publicly disclose $11 billion worth of discrepancies in trade data reported by two government entities over the last two fiscal years, raising questions about the credibility of the country's external sector indicators. Government sources told The Express Tribune that imports reported by Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL) were $5.1 billion lower than those reported by Pakistan Single Window (PSW) for fiscal year 2023-24. The difference widened further to $5.7 billion in the following fiscal year, they added.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has arrived in Malaysia on a three-day official visit at the invitation of his Malaysian counterpart Anwar Ibrahim, PM Office said on Sunday. During the visit, Prime Minister Shehbaz will hold talks with his Malaysian counterpart, while the two sides will also engage in delegation-level discussions.