Pakistan Market Wrap: Momentum Builds as Economic Stability Fuels Market Gains – By HMFS Research

Oct 21 2025

HMFS Research

• Bullish momentum carried through at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Tuesday, as the benchmark KSE-100 Index surged over 2,172 points during intraday trading amid renewed investor optimism. Buying interest was pronounced across key sectors including banks, fertilizers, and energy, buoyed by improving macro indicators and institutional participation. Sentiment was further lifted by the government’s successful Staff-Level Agreement (SLA) with the IMF, anticipation ahead of the ongoing results season, and news of the first privatization move — the sell-off of First Women Bank. The index eventually settled around the 167,346 level, closing up by nearly 1,103 points.

• Turnover remained robust, with volumes of ~1bn shares on the KSE-100 Index and ~1.81bn shares on the All-Share Index. Actively traded names included KEL (547mn), WTL (260mn), and BOP (128mn). Adding to the positive backdrop, Pakistan recorded a current account surplus of USD 110mn in September, reversing the previous month’s deficit of USD 325mn — a development that further reinforced confidence in external sector stability. We expect near-term momentum to persist as investors position ahead of major corporate earnings. That said, intermittent profit-taking cannot be ruled out after the recent rally. We advise clients to maintain exposure in fundamentally strong blue-chip names, while selectively realizing gains in overbought counters.

Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Oct 21 2025

Al Habib Capital Markets

• The KSE-100 Index extended its bullish momentum from the previous session, reaching an intraday high of 168,414.13 before settling at 167,346.83, up by 1,103.93 points (0.66%). Renewed investor confidence, driven by reduced geopolitical concerns, improved macroeconomic indicators, and sustained buying in key sectors such as commercial banks, fertilizers, and oil & gas exploration, supported the rally. On the economic front, the IMF noted on Tuesday that economic activity in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan has been “stronger than expected” this year. Top index incliners included, BAHL, FFC, MCB, OGDC & PPL, which collectively pulled the benchmark up by 830.55 points. KEL led volumes with 547.32 million shares; overall market turnover was 1,816.81 million shares.

National Foods Limited (NATF): FY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By AKD Research

Oct 21 2025

AKD Securities

• Company has two operating segments i.e. its core business and retail (cash and carry). The first encompasses NATF's traditional food and food-related products, while the latter centers on its acquisition of A1 Cash & Carry, a Canadian retail chain.

• In FY25, NATF reported consolidated earnings of PkR4.4bn (EPS: PkR14.9), against PkR2.8bn in FY24, up 58%YoY, primarily due to operational efficiencies created by the Faisalabad plant.

• Both the retail segment and the core business delivered growth, with company’s net sales increasing from PkR37bn to PkR45bn, up 19%YoY, while the retail segment also saw a 22%YoY increase in revenue.

National Foods Limited (NATF): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Oct 21 2025

• National Foods Limited (NATF) reported earnings per share of PKR 13.65 for FY25 (FY24: 5.44). Furthermore, in 4QFY25, the company reported earnings per share of PKR 1.40 (4QFY24: 1.23).

• Gross margins improved in 1QFY26 to 38% from average of 36% in FY25 primarily due to pricing factor and cost efficiencies associated with the Faisalabad plant. Management is confident that this margin is sustainable for the rest of FY26.

• In the overall portfolio mix, the Faisalabad plant contributes around 70%. While Karachi plant caters the southern part of the country and exports. A critical distribution hub has been set in Canada to serve customers and improve speed to the market.

Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Oct 21 2025

• Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL) reported loss per share of PKR 7.40 for FY25, compared to earnings per share of PKR 6.45 in FY24. Furthermore, in 1QFY26, the company reported earnings per share of PKR 1.61, compared to loss per share of PKR 3.73 in the same period last year (SPLY).

• During FY25, the company produced 796k tons of HSD and 300k tons of MS. Crude sourcing relied primarily on the Middle East roughly 70% from ADNOC, 20% from Aramco, and 10% local crude.

• Capacity utilization remained around 80–85%. Management highlighted that increasing utilization further would require running heavier crude, which would alter yields by increasing furnace oil production. Given the record MS and HSD output this year, management aims to improve efficiency and sustain higher production.

Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL): FY25 & 1QFY26 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Oct 21 2025

Taurus Securities

• The management of PRL held a corporate briefing session for the results of FY25 and 1QFY26– discussing the achievement of highest ever HSD production i.e. 796,261 MT in FY25 which had minimized overall losses. Further, the Company also achieved highest ever average daily production of MS amounting to 833 MT (7,447 barrels) during FY25. Regarding the update on ongoing Refinery Expansion & Upgrade project (REUP), the management told that EPC-F bids have been received and under evaluation (to be materialized in 1 year) and then major work will be started.

• In case of crude imports, the Company procured ~70%, 20% and 10% crude from Dubai, Aramco and local channel, respectively during 1QFY26. The current utilization stood at 80-85%. The Company procured a bulk of Bonny crude (Nigerian crude) during FY25 and in 1QFY26 as it is the reason for increase in HSD production due to low sulfur content in it.

• The current custom duties of crude, HSD and MS are 5%, 10% (2.5% in escrow account) and 10%, respectively. Overall crude average purchase price in FY25 was USD 75/bbl. Moreover, average freight/barrel in FY25 amounted to USD 1.3-1.5. Whereas, average operating/conversion cost in FY25 was USD 3.5/bbl. The management also shared average energy cost per barrel for FY25 which was USD 1/bbl. Total energy requirement per day was PKR 3.5-4 per Megawatt in FY25. As per the management, the average payment cycle from bill of lading to payment (suppliers) is 30 days. The management also highlighted that the IPPs didn’t purchase furnace oil (FO) from the refineries since the imposition of levies on FO.

Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT): Unfavourable dynamics weigh on earnings – By JS Research

Oct 21 2025

JS Global Capital

• Engro Fertilizers Ltd. (EFERT) has underperformed the KSE-100 index by 38% CYTD, mainly led by the unfavorable business dynamics that has adversely impacted the company throughout the year. To recall, the company posted earnings of Rs14bn, down 21% YoY led by the slowdown in sales volume, ongoing discounts, and higher financial charges.

• The company’s Urea inventory remained elevated, currently hovering around 550k tons owing to subdued local demand. This led to discount offerings in the range of Rs250-325/bag in the outgoing quarter which are still in place. The management in its recently held corporate briefing session apprised that industry’s inventory levels are likely to remain at 1mn tons by year end.

Pakistan Economy: Sep’25 Balance of Payments (BOP) – By Taurus Research

Oct 21 2025

Taurus Securities

• Current Account (CA) for Sep’25 arrived in at a surplus of USD 110Mn, as against a deficit of USD 325Mn in Aug’25. Cumulatively, 1QFY26 CAD stood at USD 594Mn, up 18% over the SPLY. Improved performance of CA in Sep’25 can be attributed to: i) 4% MoM decrease in the trade deficit; and ii) 57%MoM decrease in the services deficit, respectively. Overall, balance on goods & ser vices fell 13% on a sequential basis, pushing the CA into a sur plus, after two consecutive months of CA deficit.

• During the month, goods exports were up 5%MoM mainly driven by the 13%MoM surge in textile exports, amounting to USD 1.6Bn. Wherein, the major contributors were Knitwear, Bedwear and Ready-made Garments, respectively. Food exports were up 7%MoM; Tobacco being the biggest contributor to the growth.

Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Faces a bullish trading session – By AKD Research

Oct 21 2025

AKD Securities

• The index started the session on a strong bullish note and sustained its upward momentum throughout the day. It recorded an intraday high of 2,615 points before closing with substantial gains of 2,437 points at 166,243. Market participation strengthened, as trading volumes rose by 41% compared to the previous session. Currently, KSE-100 stands 28.5% above its 200-period moving average, indicating a firm uptrend. Volatility remains significantly higher than the 10-period average, though there is a fair likelihood of it easing and the Index stabilizing in the near term. Volume indicators suggest balanced inflows and outflows (neutral), while trend forecasting oscillators continue to signal a bullish outlook.

• From a technical standpoint, immediate support lies at 165,800, and a breakdown below this level could trigger further weakness towards 165,300 and 164,500. On the upside, resistance is expected around 167,100, followed by 167,800 and 168,500. Traders are advised to trade with a cautious approach and accumulate positions on weakness.

Morning News: PRAL, PSW blamed for big import data gap – By AHCML Research

Oct 21 2025

Al Habib Capital Markets

• The Ministry of Commerce and the PBS informed the National Assembly Standing Committee on Commerce on Monday that two entities under the FBR. Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL) and PSW were responsible for a discrepancy of USD11 billion in import data reported last year.

• Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday directed authorities to expedite the formal registration of cottage industries and Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), as part of a wider push to revitalize the industrial sector and improve access to finance.