Commercial Banks: Banks earnings to increase 2% YoY and 3% QoQ in 3Q2025 – By Topline Research

Oct 13 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings increase of 2% YoY due to higher interest income coupled with lower provisioning charge in 3Q2025 which is largely offset by 4% YoY decline expected in Non-Interest Income. Similarly, earnings are up by 3% QoQ due to higher taxation charged in 2Q2025.
  • NII of the banks in the Universe is likely to increase by 6% YoY to Rs330bn due to increase in volumetric growth. Non-Interest Income of the Topline Universe is also likely to post a decline of 4% YoY in 3Q2025, mainly due to lower expected Capital Gains.
  • We maintain market weight stance on banking sector where Bank Alfalah (BAFL), Habib Bank (HBL), and MCB remains our top picks.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Surges amidst good volumes – By AKD Research

Oct 22 2025


AKD Securities


  • The Index started the session on a strong bullish trajectory and maintained its upward momentum throughout the day. It reached an intra day high of 2,171 points before settling with notable gains of 1,104 points at 167,347. Market activity improved significantly, with trading volumes increasing by 43% compared to the previous session. Over the last 50 trading sessions, the index has recorded 22 positive and 28 negative closings, resulting in a net of 6 negative closings. KSE100 opened with an upside gap on normal volume, suggesting the potential formation of a Runaway Gap, typically indicating trend continuation. Price movement during the session remained limited, as reflected by the narrow difference between opening and closing levels. The daily Parabolic SAR (Stop & Reverse) indicator currently appears below the index, reinforcing the ongoing bullish sentiment.
  • From a technical standpoint, immediate support lies at 167,000, and a breakdown below this level could trigger further weakness towards 166,400 and 165,500. On the upside, resistance is expected around 167,800, followed by 168,500 and 168,900. Traders are advised to trade with a cautious approach and accumulate positions on weakness.
Morning News: Stocks mostly flat but earnings a positive; gold drops 5% - By Shajar Research

Oct 22 2025


Shajar Capital


  • Major stock indexes were mostly near flat on Tuesday, with upbeat results and forecasts from top U.S. companies providing some support, while gold prices dropped more than 5% as investors took profits after a recent rally. (Reuters)
  • US President Donald Trump on Monday said he told Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that war with Pakistan must be avoided, highlighting that he has prevented multiple conflicts using diplomacy and trade leverage. (The News)
Morning News: Repatriation of profits jumps 86 percent in Q1 – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Oct 22 2025


Alpha Capital


  • Repatriation of profits and dividends by the foreign investors sharply rose by 86 percent in the first quarter of this fiscal year (FY26) mainly due to improved earnings.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that severe flooding in Pakistan during the third quarter of 2025 may have more adverse effects on growth, inflation, and the current account than currently estimated, although these impacts remain highly uncertain.
  • The country’s business community has expressed concern following the announcement of uniform Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) of August 2025 across the country after inclusion of KE’s generation data.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Momentum Builds as Economic Stability Fuels Market Gains – By HMFS Research

Oct 21 2025


HMFS Research


  • Bullish momentum carried through at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Tuesday, as the benchmark KSE-100 Index surged over 2,172 points during intraday trading amid renewed investor optimism. Buying interest was pronounced across key sectors including banks, fertilizers, and energy, buoyed by improving macro indicators and institutional participation. Sentiment was further lifted by the government’s successful Staff-Level Agreement (SLA) with the IMF, anticipation ahead of the ongoing results season, and news of the first privatization move — the sell-off of First Women Bank. The index eventually settled around the 167,346 level, closing up by nearly 1,103 points.
  • Turnover remained robust, with volumes of ~1bn shares on the KSE-100 Index and ~1.81bn shares on the All-Share Index. Actively traded names included KEL (547mn), WTL (260mn), and BOP (128mn). Adding to the positive backdrop, Pakistan recorded a current account surplus of USD 110mn in September, reversing the previous month’s deficit of USD 325mn — a development that further reinforced confidence in external sector stability. We expect near-term momentum to persist as investors position ahead of major corporate earnings. That said, intermittent profit-taking cannot be ruled out after the recent rally. We advise clients to maintain exposure in fundamentally strong blue-chip names, while selectively realizing gains in overbought counters.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Oct 21 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index extended its bullish momentum from the previous session, reaching an intraday high of 168,414.13 before settling at 167,346.83, up by 1,103.93 points (0.66%). Renewed investor confidence, driven by reduced geopolitical concerns, improved macroeconomic indicators, and sustained buying in key sectors such as commercial banks, fertilizers, and oil & gas exploration, supported the rally. On the economic front, the IMF noted on Tuesday that economic activity in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan has been “stronger than expected” this year. Top index incliners included, BAHL, FFC, MCB, OGDC & PPL, which collectively pulled the benchmark up by 830.55 points. KEL led volumes with 547.32 million shares; overall market turnover was 1,816.81 million shares.
National Foods Limited (NATF): FY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By AKD Research

Oct 21 2025


AKD Securities


  • Company has two operating segments i.e. its core business and retail (cash and carry). The first encompasses NATF's traditional food and food-related products, while the latter centers on its acquisition of A1 Cash & Carry, a Canadian retail chain.
  • In FY25, NATF reported consolidated earnings of PkR4.4bn (EPS: PkR14.9), against PkR2.8bn in FY24, up 58%YoY, primarily due to operational efficiencies created by the Faisalabad plant.
  • Both the retail segment and the core business delivered growth, with company’s net sales increasing from PkR37bn to PkR45bn, up 19%YoY, while the retail segment also saw a 22%YoY increase in revenue.
National Foods Limited (NATF): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Oct 21 2025



  • National Foods Limited (NATF) reported earnings per share of PKR 13.65 for FY25 (FY24: 5.44). Furthermore, in 4QFY25, the company reported earnings per share of PKR 1.40 (4QFY24: 1.23).
  • Gross margins improved in 1QFY26 to 38% from average of 36% in FY25 primarily due to pricing factor and cost efficiencies associated with the Faisalabad plant. Management is confident that this margin is sustainable for the rest of FY26.
  • In the overall portfolio mix, the Faisalabad plant contributes around 70%. While Karachi plant caters the southern part of the country and exports. A critical distribution hub has been set in Canada to serve customers and improve speed to the market.
Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Oct 21 2025



  • Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL) reported loss per share of PKR 7.40 for FY25, compared to earnings per share of PKR 6.45 in FY24. Furthermore, in 1QFY26, the company reported earnings per share of PKR 1.61, compared to loss per share of PKR 3.73 in the same period last year (SPLY).
  • During FY25, the company produced 796k tons of HSD and 300k tons of MS. Crude sourcing relied primarily on the Middle East roughly 70% from ADNOC, 20% from Aramco, and 10% local crude.
  • Capacity utilization remained around 80–85%. Management highlighted that increasing utilization further would require running heavier crude, which would alter yields by increasing furnace oil production. Given the record MS and HSD output this year, management aims to improve efficiency and sustain higher production.
Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL): FY25 & 1QFY26 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Oct 21 2025


Taurus Securities


  • The management of PRL held a corporate briefing session for the results of FY25 and 1QFY26– discussing the achievement of highest ever HSD production i.e. 796,261 MT in FY25 which had minimized overall losses. Further, the Company also achieved highest ever average daily production of MS amounting to 833 MT (7,447 barrels) during FY25. Regarding the update on ongoing Refinery Expansion & Upgrade project (REUP), the management told that EPC-F bids have been received and under evaluation (to be materialized in 1 year) and then major work will be started.
  • In case of crude imports, the Company procured ~70%, 20% and 10% crude from Dubai, Aramco and local channel, respectively during 1QFY26. The current utilization stood at 80-85%. The Company procured a bulk of Bonny crude (Nigerian crude) during FY25 and in 1QFY26 as it is the reason for increase in HSD production due to low sulfur content in it.
  • The current custom duties of crude, HSD and MS are 5%, 10% (2.5% in escrow account) and 10%, respectively. Overall crude average purchase price in FY25 was USD 75/bbl. Moreover, average freight/barrel in FY25 amounted to USD 1.3-1.5. Whereas, average operating/conversion cost in FY25 was USD 3.5/bbl. The management also shared average energy cost per barrel for FY25 which was USD 1/bbl. Total energy requirement per day was PKR 3.5-4 per Megawatt in FY25. As per the management, the average payment cycle from bill of lading to payment (suppliers) is 30 days. The management also highlighted that the IPPs didn’t purchase furnace oil (FO) from the refineries since the imposition of levies on FO.
Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT): Unfavourable dynamics weigh on earnings – By JS Research

Oct 21 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Engro Fertilizers Ltd. (EFERT) has underperformed the KSE-100 index by 38% CYTD, mainly led by the unfavorable business dynamics that has adversely impacted the company throughout the year. To recall, the company posted earnings of Rs14bn, down 21% YoY led by the slowdown in sales volume, ongoing discounts, and higher financial charges.
  • The company’s Urea inventory remained elevated, currently hovering around 550k tons owing to subdued local demand. This led to discount offerings in the range of Rs250-325/bag in the outgoing quarter which are still in place. The management in its recently held corporate briefing session apprised that industry’s inventory levels are likely to remain at 1mn tons by year end.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Bulls Regain Control as Optimism Returns to the Bourse – By Topline Research

Oct 20 2025


Topline Securities


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed a strong bullish rally on the KSE-100 index, as renewed optimism lifted investor sentiment across the board. The benchmark surged 2,615 points intraday, driven by improving geopolitical conditions and encouraging macroeconomic signals. Investor confidence strengthened as Pak–Afghan border tensions eased, following the peace talks held in Doha, while positive economic developments added further momentum. Additionally, the Finance Minister’s projection of 3.5–4% GDP growth for FY25— despite the challenges posed by recent monsoon floods—further reinforced market optimism.
  • Amid this upbeat sentiment, the benchmark KSE-100 Index gained 2,356 points over the previous close, settling at 166,242 level. Trading activity remained robust, with 704mn shares changing hands on the KSE-100 and 1.47bn shares traded in the broader market. KEL (229mn), WTL (223mn), and BOP (184mn) emerged as the top volume leaders for the session. Looking ahead, favourable macroeconomic indicators, coupled with the anticipated IMF tranche disbursement, are expected to sustain the market’s positive trajectory. Moreover, the ongoing quarterly earnings season may attract investors toward value-oriented and fundamentally strong stocks. That said, intermittent profit-taking cannot be ruled out as the index consolidates at higher levels. Investors are advised to remain vigilant, monitor market dynamics closely, and focus on stocks offering long-term growth potential.
Pakistan Textiles: Textile Exports down 2% YoY while up 3% MoM in Sep-2025 to US$1.6bn – By Topline Research

Oct 16 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Textile exports clocked in at US$1.6bn in Sep 2025, down 2% YoY while up 3% MoM. In 1QFY26 Textile Exports reach US$4.8bn up 6% from US$4.5bn in 1QFY25.
  • The 2% YoY decline in exports in Sep 2025 was primarily driven by a 25% YoY drop in cotton cloth exports, which fell to US$150mn from US$200mn in Sep 2024.
  • The 3% MoM increase in Sep 2025 exports was primarily driven by a 4% MoM rise in the value added segment, led by 4% growth in knitwear and 7% growth in bedwear.
Pakistan Economy: Pakistan and IMF reaches staff level agreement – By Topline Research

Oct 15 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan and IMF have reached a Staff Level Agreement (SLA) for the Second Review for the 37-month Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and a first review of the new 28-month Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) on Oct 14, 2025.
  • Pakistan has managed to get this agreement within 6 days of the completion of IMF team visit to Pakistan from Sep 24 to Oct 08, 2025 and there seems to be no strings attached to board approval for the second consecutive review i.e. completion of any prior actions or seeking financing assurances etc. In the past we have seen conditions like confirmation of necessary financing assurance from Pakistan’s development and bilateral partners linked with board approval (Jul 2024 staff level agreement condition) and some other conditions in recent staff level agreements of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
Commercial Banks: Banks earnings to increase 2% YoY and 3% QoQ in 3Q2025 – By Topline Research

Oct 13 2025


Topline Securities


  • Topline Banking Universe is likely to post an earnings increase of 2% YoY due to higher interest income coupled with lower provisioning charge in 3Q2025 which is largely offset by 4% YoY decline expected in Non-Interest Income. Similarly, earnings are up by 3% QoQ due to higher taxation charged in 2Q2025.
  • NII of the banks in the Universe is likely to increase by 6% YoY to Rs330bn due to increase in volumetric growth. Non-Interest Income of the Topline Universe is also likely to post a decline of 4% YoY in 3Q2025, mainly due to lower expected Capital Gains.
  • We maintain market weight stance on banking sector where Bank Alfalah (BAFL), Habib Bank (HBL), and MCB remains our top picks.
Pakistan Automobiles: Pakistan Car sales in Sep 2025 up 67% YoY and 22% MoM to 17,174 units – By Topline Research

Oct 10 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Car sales in Pakistan (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 17,174 units in Sep 2025, reflecting a 67% YoY and 22% MoM rise.
  • YoY growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, introduction of more variants, lower interest rates, easing inflation, and improving consumer sentiment.
  • This took 1QFY26 sales to 42,267 units a 53% YoY rise from 27,585 units in 1QFY25.
National Bank of Pakistan (NBP): Management Meeting Takeaways – By Topline Research

Oct 8 2025


Topline Securities


  • We had a management meeting with the senior management of National Bank CEO, Mr. Rehmat Ali Hasnie and CFO, Mr. Abdul Wahid Sethi on the recent financial results and outlook.
  • Regarding the Shariah conversion of all banks, the banks stated that they are well on their way to starting the transformation and have already submitted their plans. However, the government and the central bank will need to resolve certain issues, particularly those related to making government securities investments Shariah compliant. The structure of bank balance sheets shows that a significant portion of their assets consists of government securities. Therefore, the conversion process will largely depend on resolving this matter.
  • Regarding dividends, management noted that the bank holds a very strong capital position, with a Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of 27%. Excessive availability of capital and accumulation may effect ROE hence bank have sufficient liquidity for dividend payouts in the coming years while robust profitability may continue to enhance equity and CAR. To highlight, Banks regulatory requirement for CAR has increased to 14%.
The Hub Power Company (HUBC): Management Meeting Takeaways – By Topline Research

Oct 7 2025


Topline Securities


  • We had a management meeting with the senior management of HUBC CEO, Mr. Kamran Kamal and CFO, Mr. Muhammad Saqib on the recent financial results and outlook.
  • Regarding the recent power circular debt resolution, the company stated that they are not aware of any talks made on the waiver of the late payment surcharge. They further mentioned that any discussions on this matter will take place at the government-to-government (G2G) level, as these are CPEC-related plants, and the relevant forum for such discussions is the JCC.
  • Management stated that due to the government’s focus on this area and timely release of the planned subsidies, the Company’s recoveries have improved, particularly for its coal-fired power plants. This is one reason for reduction in the Company’s finance cost along with lower interest rate.
The Searle Company Limited (SEARL): Result Review – By Topline Research

Oct 6 2025


Topline Securities


  • Searle Company (SEARL) announced its 4QFY25 result today, where the company recorded unconsolidated profit of Rs165mn (EPS of Rs0.32) vs. a loss of Rs3,442mn in 4QFY24. The same is down by 46% QoQ due to higher tax charge recorded in this quarter. Earning is lower than our expectation due to lower than estimated sales.
  • This takes full year FY25 earnings to Rs434mn (EPS of Rs0.85) vs loss of Rs3,331mn in FY24. To highlight, company has recorded impairment loss on investment on subsidiary of Rs927mn in FY25, we exclude this impact, EPS would have been Rs1.9 in FY25.