Automobile Assemblers: Earnings Preview: Lower volumes to drag profitability – By Insight Research

Oct 14 2025


Insight Securities


  • We preview quarterly results of INDU, SAZEW, MTL and AGTL for Sep’25, wherein we expect ISL auto universe to post revenue of PKR104.1bn, up by 25% YoY. Whereas, same is expected to go down 8% QoQ, amid lower volumetric sales. In Sep’25, sector is expected to post PAT of PKR10.4bn, down by ~8% QoQ. Company specific, we expect INDU/SAZEW/MTL/ AGTL to post an EPS/LPS of PKR71.6/75.7/1.3/(0.6) in Sep’25, respectively. Furthermore, we expect INDU/SAZEW to announce DPS of ~PKR43.0/15.0.
  • To highlight, passenger cars sales increased by 46% YoY to clock in at 29.3k units in 1QFY26. The increase is attributable to improved economic activity, lower interest rate and low base effect. Whereas on QoQ basis, same is down by ~20%. While, jeeps & pickups sales witnessed an increase of ~72%/25% YoY/QoQ, amid growing trend of SUV’s among consumers. Conversely, tractor companies sold only ~2.9k units in 1QFY26, down by ~43%/50% YoY, primarily due to weak agronomics.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Momentum Builds as Economic Stability Fuels Market Gains – By HMFS Research

Oct 21 2025


HMFS Research


  • Bullish momentum carried through at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Tuesday, as the benchmark KSE-100 Index surged over 2,172 points during intraday trading amid renewed investor optimism. Buying interest was pronounced across key sectors including banks, fertilizers, and energy, buoyed by improving macro indicators and institutional participation. Sentiment was further lifted by the government’s successful Staff-Level Agreement (SLA) with the IMF, anticipation ahead of the ongoing results season, and news of the first privatization move — the sell-off of First Women Bank. The index eventually settled around the 167,346 level, closing up by nearly 1,103 points.
  • Turnover remained robust, with volumes of ~1bn shares on the KSE-100 Index and ~1.81bn shares on the All-Share Index. Actively traded names included KEL (547mn), WTL (260mn), and BOP (128mn). Adding to the positive backdrop, Pakistan recorded a current account surplus of USD 110mn in September, reversing the previous month’s deficit of USD 325mn — a development that further reinforced confidence in external sector stability. We expect near-term momentum to persist as investors position ahead of major corporate earnings. That said, intermittent profit-taking cannot be ruled out after the recent rally. We advise clients to maintain exposure in fundamentally strong blue-chip names, while selectively realizing gains in overbought counters.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Oct 21 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index extended its bullish momentum from the previous session, reaching an intraday high of 168,414.13 before settling at 167,346.83, up by 1,103.93 points (0.66%). Renewed investor confidence, driven by reduced geopolitical concerns, improved macroeconomic indicators, and sustained buying in key sectors such as commercial banks, fertilizers, and oil & gas exploration, supported the rally. On the economic front, the IMF noted on Tuesday that economic activity in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan has been “stronger than expected” this year. Top index incliners included, BAHL, FFC, MCB, OGDC & PPL, which collectively pulled the benchmark up by 830.55 points. KEL led volumes with 547.32 million shares; overall market turnover was 1,816.81 million shares.
National Foods Limited (NATF): FY25 Analyst Briefing Takeaways – By AKD Research

Oct 21 2025


AKD Securities


  • Company has two operating segments i.e. its core business and retail (cash and carry). The first encompasses NATF's traditional food and food-related products, while the latter centers on its acquisition of A1 Cash & Carry, a Canadian retail chain.
  • In FY25, NATF reported consolidated earnings of PkR4.4bn (EPS: PkR14.9), against PkR2.8bn in FY24, up 58%YoY, primarily due to operational efficiencies created by the Faisalabad plant.
  • Both the retail segment and the core business delivered growth, with company’s net sales increasing from PkR37bn to PkR45bn, up 19%YoY, while the retail segment also saw a 22%YoY increase in revenue.
National Foods Limited (NATF): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Oct 21 2025



  • National Foods Limited (NATF) reported earnings per share of PKR 13.65 for FY25 (FY24: 5.44). Furthermore, in 4QFY25, the company reported earnings per share of PKR 1.40 (4QFY24: 1.23).
  • Gross margins improved in 1QFY26 to 38% from average of 36% in FY25 primarily due to pricing factor and cost efficiencies associated with the Faisalabad plant. Management is confident that this margin is sustainable for the rest of FY26.
  • In the overall portfolio mix, the Faisalabad plant contributes around 70%. While Karachi plant caters the southern part of the country and exports. A critical distribution hub has been set in Canada to serve customers and improve speed to the market.
Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL): Corporate Briefing Notes – By Chase Research

Oct 21 2025



  • Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL) reported loss per share of PKR 7.40 for FY25, compared to earnings per share of PKR 6.45 in FY24. Furthermore, in 1QFY26, the company reported earnings per share of PKR 1.61, compared to loss per share of PKR 3.73 in the same period last year (SPLY).
  • During FY25, the company produced 796k tons of HSD and 300k tons of MS. Crude sourcing relied primarily on the Middle East roughly 70% from ADNOC, 20% from Aramco, and 10% local crude.
  • Capacity utilization remained around 80–85%. Management highlighted that increasing utilization further would require running heavier crude, which would alter yields by increasing furnace oil production. Given the record MS and HSD output this year, management aims to improve efficiency and sustain higher production.
Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL): FY25 & 1QFY26 Corporate Briefing Takeaways – By Taurus Research

Oct 21 2025


Taurus Securities


  • The management of PRL held a corporate briefing session for the results of FY25 and 1QFY26– discussing the achievement of highest ever HSD production i.e. 796,261 MT in FY25 which had minimized overall losses. Further, the Company also achieved highest ever average daily production of MS amounting to 833 MT (7,447 barrels) during FY25. Regarding the update on ongoing Refinery Expansion & Upgrade project (REUP), the management told that EPC-F bids have been received and under evaluation (to be materialized in 1 year) and then major work will be started.
  • In case of crude imports, the Company procured ~70%, 20% and 10% crude from Dubai, Aramco and local channel, respectively during 1QFY26. The current utilization stood at 80-85%. The Company procured a bulk of Bonny crude (Nigerian crude) during FY25 and in 1QFY26 as it is the reason for increase in HSD production due to low sulfur content in it.
  • The current custom duties of crude, HSD and MS are 5%, 10% (2.5% in escrow account) and 10%, respectively. Overall crude average purchase price in FY25 was USD 75/bbl. Moreover, average freight/barrel in FY25 amounted to USD 1.3-1.5. Whereas, average operating/conversion cost in FY25 was USD 3.5/bbl. The management also shared average energy cost per barrel for FY25 which was USD 1/bbl. Total energy requirement per day was PKR 3.5-4 per Megawatt in FY25. As per the management, the average payment cycle from bill of lading to payment (suppliers) is 30 days. The management also highlighted that the IPPs didn’t purchase furnace oil (FO) from the refineries since the imposition of levies on FO.
Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT): Unfavourable dynamics weigh on earnings – By JS Research

Oct 21 2025


JS Global Capital


  • Engro Fertilizers Ltd. (EFERT) has underperformed the KSE-100 index by 38% CYTD, mainly led by the unfavorable business dynamics that has adversely impacted the company throughout the year. To recall, the company posted earnings of Rs14bn, down 21% YoY led by the slowdown in sales volume, ongoing discounts, and higher financial charges.
  • The company’s Urea inventory remained elevated, currently hovering around 550k tons owing to subdued local demand. This led to discount offerings in the range of Rs250-325/bag in the outgoing quarter which are still in place. The management in its recently held corporate briefing session apprised that industry’s inventory levels are likely to remain at 1mn tons by year end.
Pakistan Economy: Sep’25 Balance of Payments (BOP) – By Taurus Research

Oct 21 2025


Taurus Securities


  • Current Account (CA) for Sep’25 arrived in at a surplus of USD 110Mn, as against a deficit of USD 325Mn in Aug’25. Cumulatively, 1QFY26 CAD stood at USD 594Mn, up 18% over the SPLY. Improved performance of CA in Sep’25 can be attributed to: i) 4% MoM decrease in the trade deficit; and ii) 57%MoM decrease in the services deficit, respectively. Overall, balance on goods & ser vices fell 13% on a sequential basis, pushing the CA into a sur plus, after two consecutive months of CA deficit.
  • During the month, goods exports were up 5%MoM mainly driven by the 13%MoM surge in textile exports, amounting to USD 1.6Bn. Wherein, the major contributors were Knitwear, Bedwear and Ready-made Garments, respectively. Food exports were up 7%MoM; Tobacco being the biggest contributor to the growth.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100: Faces a bullish trading session – By AKD Research

Oct 21 2025


AKD Securities


  • The index started the session on a strong bullish note and sustained its upward momentum throughout the day. It recorded an intraday high of 2,615 points before closing with substantial gains of 2,437 points at 166,243. Market participation strengthened, as trading volumes rose by 41% compared to the previous session. Currently, KSE-100 stands 28.5% above its 200-period moving average, indicating a firm uptrend. Volatility remains significantly higher than the 10-period average, though there is a fair likelihood of it easing and the Index stabilizing in the near term. Volume indicators suggest balanced inflows and outflows (neutral), while trend forecasting oscillators continue to signal a bullish outlook.
  • From a technical standpoint, immediate support lies at 165,800, and a breakdown below this level could trigger further weakness towards 165,300 and 164,500. On the upside, resistance is expected around 167,100, followed by 167,800 and 168,500. Traders are advised to trade with a cautious approach and accumulate positions on weakness.
Morning News: PRAL, PSW blamed for big import data gap – By AHCML Research

Oct 21 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Ministry of Commerce and the PBS informed the National Assembly Standing Committee on Commerce on Monday that two entities under the FBR. Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL) and PSW were responsible for a discrepancy of USD11 billion in import data reported last year.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday directed authorities to expedite the formal registration of cottage industries and Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), as part of a wider push to revitalize the industrial sector and improve access to finance.
Pakistan Cements: Demand uptick to catalyse further rerating – By Insight Research

Oct 17 2025


Insight Securities


  • Pakistan cement sector has rallied 33% FYTD vs. KSE100’s 32% return. Despite utilization hovering at a depressed level of ~45%, sector’s profitability and stock performance have remained robust. Historically, sector valuations have moved closely in tandem with demand cycles, with P/E multiple stretching towards 10x during boom cycles and contracting to 5x in period of subdued demand. Unlike previous cycles where weak demand triggered price wars and subsequent compressed valuations, cement players have observed strict pricing discipline during current cycle.
  • With political and economic stability, deleveraged balance sheet, lower interest rates and no major capacity additions in short run, the sector appears well positioned to sustain its upward momentum, while any improvement in demand outlook remains a key upside trigger.
Mari Energies Limited (MARI): Fundamentals priced in, ambitions yet to materialize – By Insight Research

Oct 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • MARI has demonstrated commendable operational performance in recent years, underpinned by consistent reserve accretion with reserve growing at a 5-year CAGR of 11%. MARI’s reserve and resources (2P+2C) increased to an all time high of 952 MMBOE as of Jun’25, translating into a Reserve Replacement Ratio (RRR) of 278%.
  • Given the significant improvement in reserve base, sustained exploration efforts and company’s diversification into mining and cloud storage, we upgrade our stance to Hold, with a revised Dec’26 SOTP based target price of PKR725/sh. MARI’s diversification initiatives, however, remain in early stages and have been conservatively incorporated. Meanwhile, MARI continues to pursue an aggressive exploration strategy across new and existing blocks, which could unlock incremental value over the medium term.
Attock Cement Pakistan Limited (ACPL): Analyst briefing takeaways – By Insight Research

Oct 16 2025


Insight Securities


  • InFY25, company posted net sales of PKR33bn vs. PKR28bn in SPLY, up by 17% YoY. The growth was primarily driven by higher retention prices and increased export volumes. To note, ACPL local retention price stood at ~PKR16k/ton in FY25 vs. ~PKR15k/ton in SPLY.
  • Company profitability declined by 51% YoY in FY25, mainly due to the one-off gain on disposal of a subsidiary recorded in FY24.
  • The company’s sales mix during FY25 comprised of 44% local sales and 56% exports, compared to 53% and 47%, respectively, in FY24.
Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW): 1QFY26 EPS clocked in at PKR73.1 – Inline with expectation – By Insight Research

Oct 15 2025


Insight Securities


  • During 1QFY26, revenue witnessed an increase of ~28%/24% YoY/QoQ, to clock in at PKR33.8bn, primarily due to higher volumetric sales.
  • Gross margins decreased by ~370bps YoY to clock in at ~25.2% in 1QFY26, attributable to imposition of carbon levy.
  • Selling and distribution expense recorded an increase of 30%/7% YoY/QoQ amid higher volumetric sales.
Commercial Banks: 3QCY25 Previews: Volumetric expansion to offset pressure on NIMs – By Insight Research

Oct 15 2025


Insight Securities


  • We estimate profitability of ISL coverage bank to inch up by ~4.2%/0.3% YoY/QoQ. The YoY increase is mainly driven by volumetric growth, while on QoQ basis earning are expected to remain flat. Net Interest Income for coverage banks is expected to stay broadly unchanged, as the impact of NIMs compression is likely to be offset by volumetric growth in the asset base on QoQ basis. We expect dividend payouts to remain robust amid healthy profits and decent buffer on adequacy ratios. We project HBL/UBL/MCB/MEBL/BAFL to post EPS of PKR11.1/13.5/10.9/12.8/4.8, respectively. On dividend payouts, we expect HBL/UBL/MCB/MEBL/BAFL to announce DPS of PKR4.5/8.0/9.0/7.0/2.5, respectively.
  • The sector's net interest margins (NIMs) are expected to witness some moderation in 3QCY25, primarily due to the decline in yields. However, the impact is likely to be offset by volumetric growth. Cost of funds are likely to remain stable as SBP maintained policy rate at 11% in last 4 MPC meetings. Non funded income are likely to decline amid softening in capital gains, while fee income is likely to inch up amid improved economic activity and remittance flows.
Automobile Assemblers: Earnings Preview: Lower volumes to drag profitability – By Insight Research

Oct 14 2025


Insight Securities


  • We preview quarterly results of INDU, SAZEW, MTL and AGTL for Sep’25, wherein we expect ISL auto universe to post revenue of PKR104.1bn, up by 25% YoY. Whereas, same is expected to go down 8% QoQ, amid lower volumetric sales. In Sep’25, sector is expected to post PAT of PKR10.4bn, down by ~8% QoQ. Company specific, we expect INDU/SAZEW/MTL/ AGTL to post an EPS/LPS of PKR71.6/75.7/1.3/(0.6) in Sep’25, respectively. Furthermore, we expect INDU/SAZEW to announce DPS of ~PKR43.0/15.0.
  • To highlight, passenger cars sales increased by 46% YoY to clock in at 29.3k units in 1QFY26. The increase is attributable to improved economic activity, lower interest rate and low base effect. Whereas on QoQ basis, same is down by ~20%. While, jeeps & pickups sales witnessed an increase of ~72%/25% YoY/QoQ, amid growing trend of SUV’s among consumers. Conversely, tractor companies sold only ~2.9k units in 1QFY26, down by ~43%/50% YoY, primarily due to weak agronomics.