Technical Outlook: KSE-100 Ends Week Strong, Maintains Bullish Trajectory – HMFS Research

Dec 5 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index concluded the week on a positive note, gaining +802 points (+0.48%) on Friday. Despite heightened volatility throughout the week, the index successfully held above the key support level of 166,024, as highlighted in our earlier chart-based analysis.
  • This resilience reinforces our technical outlook, with the market continuing to respect critical support zones amid fluctuating sentiment. The broader trend remains constructive, and we reiterate our year-end 2025 target of 176,336, implying a potential upside of 6% from current levels.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Dec 12 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index staged a rebound session today, climbing to an intraday high of 170,052.87 before settling at all time high of 169,864.52, up by 1,289.83 points (0.77%). The upward momentum was fuelled by robust buying interest in fertilizer, commercial banks, Technology & Communication, oil and gas exploration companies, OMCs and Cement.
  • On the economic front, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slapped 11 new structural benchmarks (SBs) on Pakistan, including developing and publishing a comprehensive medium-term (3 to 5 years) tax reform strategy, asset declarations of high-level federal civil servants and an action plan to mitigate corruption vulnerabilities in identified departments. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s central bank is expected to retain interest rates at 11% on Monday as analysts push back rate-cut forecasts to late 2026 after the IMF warned inflation risks persist and policy must stay “appropriately tight”. Among major contributors FFC, MCB, SYS, PPL, & HUBC, which collectively added 783.31 points to the benchmark index. HUMNL led volumes with 71.84 million shares; as overall market participation reached 873.03 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Dec 12 2025


Vector Securities


  • Evening Note.
Pakistan Market Wrap: View from the Desk – By JS Research

Dec 12 2025


JS Global Capital


  • PSX rebounded strongly as the KSE 100 Index surged 1,289 points to close at 169,864. The market opened soft but quickly recovered with steady upward momentum. Intraday high touched 170,052, showing strong buying interest. Overall volumes remained healthy at 873mn shares. Optimism returned after yesterday’s pullback, lifting major sectors. Buyers remained dominant throughout the session, driving sustained strength. Near-term outlook stays positive as the market attempts another breakout above170k.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Market Sustains Upward Trajectory Amid Renewed Inflows and Sectoral Developments – By HMFS Research

Dec 12 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index sustained its upward momentum today, with investors displaying renewed optimism on the back of IMF tranche inflows and the World Bank’s approval of a USD 400mn Urban Water and Resilience Project. Sentiment was further reinforced by positive movements in the energy chain, where payments of circular debt provided an additional uplift. Benchmark index touched an intra-day high of 1,478 points before settling at 169,865 points, reflecting a gain of 1,290 points. Market participation remained healthy, with 310mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and overall market volumes reaching 872mn shares.
  • The most actively traded scrips included HUMNL (72mn), DSL (47mn), and WTL (41mn). On the policy front, the IMF has proposed 11 new structural benchmarks aimed at strengthening tax administration and reducing systemic leakages. As discussions continue, the clarity and trajectory of these reforms are likely to guide near-term market direction. Additionally, the MPC meeting scheduled for December 15 is expected to retain the policy rate at 11%. While a status quo stance aligns with market expectations, any deviation would shape the market accordingly. Overall, the improving macroeconomic backdrop and steady progress on policy measures are expected to keep the market supported. Investors are advised to maintain a vigilant stance and allocate capital toward fundamentally strong, long-term growth stories.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 169,865 up 1,290 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Dec 12 2025


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market opened on a strong note and maintained its momentum throughout the session. The KSE-100 Index touched an intraday high of 170,053 and a low of 168,422, before settling at 169,865—up 1,290 points. Trading activity remained healthy, with 310 million shares changing hands and an estimated turnover of PKR 27 billion.
  • Major contributors to the index’s gain included FFC (up 2.2%, adding 372 points), MCB (3%, 150 points), SYS (2.3%, 116 points), PPL (1.5%, 74 points), and HUBC (1.1%, 72 points). In terms of volumes, HUMNL and SSGC led the market with 71.8 million and 31.1 million shares traded, respectively.
Pakistan Economy: SBP Expected to keep Policy Rate unchanged at 11% – By AHCML Research

Dec 12 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The State Bank of Pakistan's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is highly anticipated to maintain the policy rate unchanged at 11% in its upcoming meeting on December 15, 2025. This decision is driven by a complex mix of opposing economic forces. Significant upside risks to inflation from recent flood disruptions is the primary culprits. However, this is countered by strengthening external sector stability, evidenced by a strong forex reserves level along with massive foreign inflows from international financial institutions. Along with stable PKR and a rebound in industrial activity, with the LSM index growing at 4.08%YoY in 1QFY26. The MPC is expected to prioritize anchoring inflation expectations while leveraging the improved external position to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach, assessing the full impact of the flood-induced economic disruptions before making any policy rate cut.
Pakistan Economy: IMF: Further reforms needed – By Foundation Research

Dec 12 2025


Foundation Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released the detailed report upon approval by its Executive Board of the 2nd review of the USD 7.0Bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and 1st review of the USD 1.3Bn Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The IMF report cited the governments’ strong program implementation as 6 of 7 quantitative criteria, 4 of 8 indicative targets, and most continuous and other structural benchmarks were met at end-June 2025. This has maintained stability and improved financing and external conditions.
  • Pakistan’s 37-month EFF was approved on September 25, 2024, and aims to build resilience and enable sustainable growth. The program’s priorities remain centered on (i) entrenching macroeconomic stability through consistent implementation of sound macro policies, including rebuilding international reserve buffers and broadening the tax base; (ii) advancing reforms to strengthen competition and raise productivity and competitiveness; and (iii) reforming SOEs and improving public service provision, developing human and physical capital, and restoring energy sector viability.
Pakistan Economy: IMF releases staff report following review completion – By JS Research

Dec 12 2025


JS Global Capital


  • A detailed Staff report has been released by IMF, following IMF Executive Board’s approval of the second review for the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Completion of the second EFF review has made available SDR 760mn (about US$1bn) bringing total disbursements to US$3.3bn (SDR 2,434mn) including US$200mn (SDR 154mn) under the RSF.
  • IMF’s key priorities include cementing macroeconomic stability through consistent implementation of sound macro policies, including rebuilding international reserve buffers, and broadening the tax base implementation of reforms to boost market competition, enhance productivity & competitiveness, reform state-owned enterprises (SOEs), improve the delivery of public services and ensure the financial viability of the energy sector.
Automobile Assemblers: Nov’25: Passenger Vehicle Sales down 11%MoM – By Taurus Research

Dec 12 2025


Taurus Securities


  • According to data from the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturing Association (PAMA), automobile sales in Nov’25 showed a de crease of 11%MoM in volumes for Passenger Cars, Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs), and Jeeps, totaling 15,420 units. Moreover, on a yearly basis sales experienced a 53% surge as compared to the SPLY. INDU’s market share marginally decreased by 1ppts MoM to 25%, while HCAR’s share improved 2ppts to 17%. Hyundai’s market share remained unchanged, whereas SAZEW’s share marginally decreased~ 1% to 7%. Meanwhile, PSMC’s market share remained stable at 43%. Moreover, 5MFY26 car sales rose 48%YoY to 74,835 units compared to 50,669 units sold last year.
  • The yearly growth in sales during Nov’25 can be attributed to several factors, stable inflation, fuel prices, interest rates and dis counted car prices along with the release of new variants. Moreover, the MoM decrease in auto sales was led by decrease in volumes for PSMC, INDU, Hyundai, SAZEW, GAL and DFML and increase in GHNI reflecting strong competition between the companies in the market. This results in a mixed performance that limits overall growth. Going forward, easing inflation and declining interest rates are expected to support demand recovery, partially offsetting the negative impact of the recent fiscal measures.
Morning News: Pakistan receives $1.2bn from IMF, confirms SBP – By HMFS Research

Dec 12 2025


HMFS Research


  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday said it has received about $1.2 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The amount would be reflected in SBP’s foreign exchange reserves for the week ending 12 December 2025, which are expected to be published next week, it added.
  • The IMF has imposed 11 new structural benchmarks on Pakistan to strengthen fiscal management, governance, and sectoral reforms after noting that the country met 8 of 13 earlier targets. These new benchmarks require the government to finalize an FBR reform roadmap, publish a medium-term tax reform strategy, and enhance transparency by making senior civil servants’ asset declarations public and issuing an action plan to address corruption risks. Additional conditions include studies and action plans to lower remittance costs, boost FX inflows, and develop the local currency bond market. The IMF also demands progress on energy sector reforms by preparing HESCO and SEPCO for private sector participation, signing PSO agreements with major SOEs to improve transparency, and adopting a national sugar market liberalization policy.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Market Sustains Upward Trajectory Amid Renewed Inflows and Sectoral Developments – By HMFS Research

Dec 12 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index sustained its upward momentum today, with investors displaying renewed optimism on the back of IMF tranche inflows and the World Bank’s approval of a USD 400mn Urban Water and Resilience Project. Sentiment was further reinforced by positive movements in the energy chain, where payments of circular debt provided an additional uplift. Benchmark index touched an intra-day high of 1,478 points before settling at 169,865 points, reflecting a gain of 1,290 points. Market participation remained healthy, with 310mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and overall market volumes reaching 872mn shares.
  • The most actively traded scrips included HUMNL (72mn), DSL (47mn), and WTL (41mn). On the policy front, the IMF has proposed 11 new structural benchmarks aimed at strengthening tax administration and reducing systemic leakages. As discussions continue, the clarity and trajectory of these reforms are likely to guide near-term market direction. Additionally, the MPC meeting scheduled for December 15 is expected to retain the policy rate at 11%. While a status quo stance aligns with market expectations, any deviation would shape the market accordingly. Overall, the improving macroeconomic backdrop and steady progress on policy measures are expected to keep the market supported. Investors are advised to maintain a vigilant stance and allocate capital toward fundamentally strong, long-term growth stories.
Morning News: Pakistan receives $1.2bn from IMF, confirms SBP – By HMFS Research

Dec 12 2025


HMFS Research


  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday said it has received about $1.2 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The amount would be reflected in SBP’s foreign exchange reserves for the week ending 12 December 2025, which are expected to be published next week, it added.
  • The IMF has imposed 11 new structural benchmarks on Pakistan to strengthen fiscal management, governance, and sectoral reforms after noting that the country met 8 of 13 earlier targets. These new benchmarks require the government to finalize an FBR reform roadmap, publish a medium-term tax reform strategy, and enhance transparency by making senior civil servants’ asset declarations public and issuing an action plan to address corruption risks. Additional conditions include studies and action plans to lower remittance costs, boost FX inflows, and develop the local currency bond market. The IMF also demands progress on energy sector reforms by preparing HESCO and SEPCO for private sector participation, signing PSO agreements with major SOEs to improve transparency, and adopting a national sugar market liberalization policy.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Bullish Spark Dimmed by Profit-Taking as Valuations Rise – By HMFS Research

Dec 11 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index opened the session on a strong bullish note, surging by 850 points during intra-day trading as optimism built around the approved IMF tranche disbursement and progress on clearing circular debt stock. These developments initially lifted market confidence, keeping the benchmark firmly in the green. However, elevated valuations provided investors with an incentive to realize gains, triggering broad-based profit-taking that gradually reversed the early momentum. Key sectors—including Fertilizer, Cement, and Banking—came under selling pressure, collectively pulling the index into negative territory. By the close of the session, the KSE-100 had retreated by 877 points, settling at 168,575 level.
  • Trading activity remained robust, with 657mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and 1.29bn across the broader market. The day’s top volume leaders were HUMNL (188mn), PKGP (180mn), and TPLP (110mn). Looking ahead, the broader market direction is expected to remain constructive, supported by improving macroeconomic indicators, IMF impeding inflow, continued foreign interest in projects such as Reko Diq, and potential liquidity relief for energy companies through circular debt payments. Even so, as valuations rise and economic developments evolve, intermittent phases of profit-taking are likely to remain part of the trading landscape. Investors are advised to stay vigilant, monitor key policy and economic updates closely, and focus on fundamentally sound stocks that offer sustained long-term growth potential.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Market Achieved Historic 170k Mark – By HMFS Research

Dec 10 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market extended yesterday’s bullish momentum, hitting an intraday high of nearly 1,200 points and crossing the 170k level for the first time in the history of KSE-100. Sentiment remained strongly positive following the IMF Executive Board’s approval, which unlocked ~USD 1.2bn under the EFF and RSF facilities. Further support came from the U.S. EXIM Bank’s USD 1.25bn financing approval for critical mineral development at Reko Diq—an endorsement expected to catalyze economic activity in Balochistan and deepen U.S.–Pakistan commercial cooperation. These developments fuelled robust value-buying throughout the session.
  • However, investors opted to realize gains near the close, leading the index to end marginally lower by 4.52 points at 169,452 level. Trading volumes were robust, totaling 497mn shares on the KSE-100, while the broader market saw 1.19bn shares traded. Major contributors to volume included HUMNL (132mn), BML (103mn), and TPLP (52mn). Looking ahead, we expect the market to maintain a positive bias, albeit range-bound, as investors await the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 15th December, where a status-quo outcome remains the dominant expectation. Meanwhile, PSX’s record performance is reviving corporate interest in equity listings, with bankers projecting up to 16 IPOs in 2026, according to Bloomberg, indicating renewed confidence in capital-market fundraising. That said, political uncertainty may introduce intermittent pressure. We advise investors to remain selective, maintain vigilance, and prioritize long-term fundamentals amid short-term volatility.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Bullish Start to the Week as IMF Review Lifts Investor Sentiment – By HMFS Research

Dec 8 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index opened the week on a strong footing, gained over 1,600 points intraday as sentiment improved ahead of the IMF Executive Board meeting scheduled for today to approve the disbursement under the USD 1.2bn review. Over the weekend, the newly concluded Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Pakistan and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) emerged as a key development at the 23rd Doha Forum. The market maintained strong momentum throughout the session, driven by value buying. At the end of the day, the bourse settled at 168,303 level, up by 1,218 points. Trading activity remained moderate, with 328mn shares traded on KSE-100, while the broader market recorded 781mn shares. PTC (61mn), BNL (52mn), and KEL (47mn) led the volumes.
  • Going forward, market sentiment is expected to remain bullish on the back of the IMF review. If the review is successfully concluded, the tranche is likely to be disbursed within a few days, supporting continued optimism throughout the week. Further, tomorrow’s meeting with the Economic Co-ordination Committee (ECC) to discuss an 11-point agenda including talking about the circular debt plan for FY26 and electricity purchase agreement with Iran, among others, would shape the market accordingly. Investors are advised to stay attuned to these meetings, track key economic developments, and remain focused on fundamentally strong stocks with sustainable long-term growth potential.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100 Ends Week Strong, Maintains Bullish Trajectory – HMFS Research

Dec 5 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index concluded the week on a positive note, gaining +802 points (+0.48%) on Friday. Despite heightened volatility throughout the week, the index successfully held above the key support level of 166,024, as highlighted in our earlier chart-based analysis.
  • This resilience reinforces our technical outlook, with the market continuing to respect critical support zones amid fluctuating sentiment. The broader trend remains constructive, and we reiterate our year-end 2025 target of 176,336, implying a potential upside of 6% from current levels.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Market Shows Restraint Amid Volatile Intra-Day Swings – By HMFS Research

Dec 4 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange witnessed a lackluster session today, as the benchmark KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note but soon slipped into negative territory amid early selling pressure. The market later regained momentum and climbed as much as 692 points during intra-day trade. Sentiment stabilized further after Saudi Arabia extended its USD 3bn deposit for Pakistan for one year, helping the index recover lost ground.
  • Ultimately, the KSE-100 closed at 166,284, posting a modest gain of 138 points. Trading activity remained subdued, with 168mn shares changing hands on the KSE-100, while the broader market recorded 607mn shares. LPL (109mn), PIAHCLA (38mn), and PTC (34mn) emerged as the top volume leaders. Looking ahead, market direction is expected to remain sensitive to macroeconomic developments, particularly external account indicators and the inflation trajectory. With volatility likely to persist, investors are advised to maintain caution and prioritize fundamentally resilient scrips amid short-term fluctuations.
Morning News: Debt-to-GDP ratio falls to 26pc: SBP governor – By HMFS Research

Dec 4 2025


HMFS Research


  • Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Jameel Ahmad on Wednesday said Pakistan’s external debt burden has begun to ease, with the debt-to-GDP ratio falling from 31 percent to 26 percent. Speaking to the media at the Pakistan Women Entrepreneurship Day 2025 ceremony at SBP head office, he said this is the first meaningful improvement in several years. He added that Pakistan has not added to its external debt stock since 2022, breaking a long trend of steady annual increases. The Governor SBP noted that previously between 2015 and 2022 the external debt had been rising by an average of USD 6.4 billion every year. “The direction has changed. We’re now seeing stability instead of continuous accumulation,” he said. He added that the current account deficit will remain contained between zero and one percent of GDP this fiscal year, despite higher imports. He said the improvement reflects better discipline, stronger inflows and more balanced trade flows.
  • Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Wednesday said the federal government will finalise an action plan by December 31 for the implementation of 15 priority recommendations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to improve governance to end corruption in various departments. The Finance Minister informed the National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance that the short-term and long-term recommendations would be implemented in a two to three-year period to control corruption in government departments. Terming the report an indictment of both the government and parliament, the Finance Minister read out all 15 major recommendations of the IMF from the report, commenting that most of them are implemented, or a lot of these recommendations are work in progress. Fifteen major recommendations of the IMF are related to different areas, including governance, taxation, corruption, regulatory and the rule of law.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Bulls Step Back, Leaving the Market in a Mild Retreat – By HMFS Research

Dec 3 2025


HMFS Research


  • Negative sentiment prevailed at the Pakistan Stock Exchange today, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index facing sustained selling pressure and shedding over 1,527 points during intra-day trading. Investors opted to lock in gains following the strong valuations achieved earlier in the week, triggering broad-based profit taking across key sectors. Fertilizer and banking stocks bore the brunt of the decline, contributing significantly to the downward movement, as the index ultimately closed at 166,145—down 1,497 points from the intraday high.
  • Trading activity remained moderate, with 259mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and 591mn shares exchanged across the broader market. WTL (79mn), HUBC (47mn), and TRG (33mn) emerged as the top volume leaders. Looking ahead, market direction will continue to hinge on evolving macroeconomic indicators. While November's inflation reading remained stable, the sharp rise in the trade deficit poses a downside risk to investor sentiment in the near term. Investors are advised to maintain vigilance, monitor key economic developments, and prioritize fundamentally resilient scrips that offer sustained long-term growth potential.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Bullish Start Fades as Trade Deficit Dampens Momentum – By HMFS Research

Dec 2 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 index opened the session by extending its bullish streak, supported by signs of macroeconomic stability as November inflation eased to 6.1%, maintaining the steady trend observed in October. Additionally, continued foreign interest in Pakistan—particularly in the IT and E&P sectors—helped sustain early momentum, pushing the index to an intra-day high of 1,227 points. However, sentiment weakened as the session progressed, triggered by the release of November 2025 trade data, which revealed a 33% y/y surge in the trade deficit to USD 2.9bn. The deteriorating external account weighed heavily on investor confidence, ultimately driving the benchmark into negative territory.
  • The index closed at 167,642, down 420 points from the previous session. Trading activity remained healthy, with 292mn shares exchanged on the KSE-100 and 773mn shares across the broader market. Volume leaders for the day included WTL (169mn), KEL (41mn), and FNEL (37mn). Looking ahead, market direction will primarily depend on upcoming macroeconomic indicators, external account developments, and clarity on policy measures aimed at stabilizing the fiscal position. While broader sentiment remains supported by improving inflation dynamics and sector-specific growth prospects, bouts of volatility may persist as investors reassess external risks. Investors are advised to maintain a vigilant stance, focus on fundamentally robust scrips, and position portfolios for longterm resilience amid evolving economic conditions.