Pakistan Economy: SBP Expected to keep Policy Rate unchanged at 11% – By AHCML Research

Dec 12 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The State Bank of Pakistan's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is highly anticipated to maintain the policy rate unchanged at 11% in its upcoming meeting on December 15, 2025. This decision is driven by a complex mix of opposing economic forces. Significant upside risks to inflation from recent flood disruptions is the primary culprits. However, this is countered by strengthening external sector stability, evidenced by a strong forex reserves level along with massive foreign inflows from international financial institutions. Along with stable PKR and a rebound in industrial activity, with the LSM index growing at 4.08%YoY in 1QFY26. The MPC is expected to prioritize anchoring inflation expectations while leveraging the improved external position to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach, assessing the full impact of the flood-induced economic disruptions before making any policy rate cut.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Dec 12 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index staged a rebound session today, climbing to an intraday high of 170,052.87 before settling at all time high of 169,864.52, up by 1,289.83 points (0.77%). The upward momentum was fuelled by robust buying interest in fertilizer, commercial banks, Technology & Communication, oil and gas exploration companies, OMCs and Cement.
  • On the economic front, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slapped 11 new structural benchmarks (SBs) on Pakistan, including developing and publishing a comprehensive medium-term (3 to 5 years) tax reform strategy, asset declarations of high-level federal civil servants and an action plan to mitigate corruption vulnerabilities in identified departments. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s central bank is expected to retain interest rates at 11% on Monday as analysts push back rate-cut forecasts to late 2026 after the IMF warned inflation risks persist and policy must stay “appropriately tight”. Among major contributors FFC, MCB, SYS, PPL, & HUBC, which collectively added 783.31 points to the benchmark index. HUMNL led volumes with 71.84 million shares; as overall market participation reached 873.03 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Dec 12 2025


Vector Securities


  • Evening Note.
Pakistan Market Wrap: View from the Desk – By JS Research

Dec 12 2025


JS Global Capital


  • PSX rebounded strongly as the KSE 100 Index surged 1,289 points to close at 169,864. The market opened soft but quickly recovered with steady upward momentum. Intraday high touched 170,052, showing strong buying interest. Overall volumes remained healthy at 873mn shares. Optimism returned after yesterday’s pullback, lifting major sectors. Buyers remained dominant throughout the session, driving sustained strength. Near-term outlook stays positive as the market attempts another breakout above170k.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Market Sustains Upward Trajectory Amid Renewed Inflows and Sectoral Developments – By HMFS Research

Dec 12 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index sustained its upward momentum today, with investors displaying renewed optimism on the back of IMF tranche inflows and the World Bank’s approval of a USD 400mn Urban Water and Resilience Project. Sentiment was further reinforced by positive movements in the energy chain, where payments of circular debt provided an additional uplift. Benchmark index touched an intra-day high of 1,478 points before settling at 169,865 points, reflecting a gain of 1,290 points. Market participation remained healthy, with 310mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and overall market volumes reaching 872mn shares.
  • The most actively traded scrips included HUMNL (72mn), DSL (47mn), and WTL (41mn). On the policy front, the IMF has proposed 11 new structural benchmarks aimed at strengthening tax administration and reducing systemic leakages. As discussions continue, the clarity and trajectory of these reforms are likely to guide near-term market direction. Additionally, the MPC meeting scheduled for December 15 is expected to retain the policy rate at 11%. While a status quo stance aligns with market expectations, any deviation would shape the market accordingly. Overall, the improving macroeconomic backdrop and steady progress on policy measures are expected to keep the market supported. Investors are advised to maintain a vigilant stance and allocate capital toward fundamentally strong, long-term growth stories.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 169,865 up 1,290 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Dec 12 2025


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market opened on a strong note and maintained its momentum throughout the session. The KSE-100 Index touched an intraday high of 170,053 and a low of 168,422, before settling at 169,865—up 1,290 points. Trading activity remained healthy, with 310 million shares changing hands and an estimated turnover of PKR 27 billion.
  • Major contributors to the index’s gain included FFC (up 2.2%, adding 372 points), MCB (3%, 150 points), SYS (2.3%, 116 points), PPL (1.5%, 74 points), and HUBC (1.1%, 72 points). In terms of volumes, HUMNL and SSGC led the market with 71.8 million and 31.1 million shares traded, respectively.
Pakistan Economy: SBP Expected to keep Policy Rate unchanged at 11% – By AHCML Research

Dec 12 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The State Bank of Pakistan's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is highly anticipated to maintain the policy rate unchanged at 11% in its upcoming meeting on December 15, 2025. This decision is driven by a complex mix of opposing economic forces. Significant upside risks to inflation from recent flood disruptions is the primary culprits. However, this is countered by strengthening external sector stability, evidenced by a strong forex reserves level along with massive foreign inflows from international financial institutions. Along with stable PKR and a rebound in industrial activity, with the LSM index growing at 4.08%YoY in 1QFY26. The MPC is expected to prioritize anchoring inflation expectations while leveraging the improved external position to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach, assessing the full impact of the flood-induced economic disruptions before making any policy rate cut.
Pakistan Economy: IMF: Further reforms needed – By Foundation Research

Dec 12 2025


Foundation Securities


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released the detailed report upon approval by its Executive Board of the 2nd review of the USD 7.0Bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and 1st review of the USD 1.3Bn Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The IMF report cited the governments’ strong program implementation as 6 of 7 quantitative criteria, 4 of 8 indicative targets, and most continuous and other structural benchmarks were met at end-June 2025. This has maintained stability and improved financing and external conditions.
  • Pakistan’s 37-month EFF was approved on September 25, 2024, and aims to build resilience and enable sustainable growth. The program’s priorities remain centered on (i) entrenching macroeconomic stability through consistent implementation of sound macro policies, including rebuilding international reserve buffers and broadening the tax base; (ii) advancing reforms to strengthen competition and raise productivity and competitiveness; and (iii) reforming SOEs and improving public service provision, developing human and physical capital, and restoring energy sector viability.
Pakistan Economy: IMF releases staff report following review completion – By JS Research

Dec 12 2025


JS Global Capital


  • A detailed Staff report has been released by IMF, following IMF Executive Board’s approval of the second review for the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Completion of the second EFF review has made available SDR 760mn (about US$1bn) bringing total disbursements to US$3.3bn (SDR 2,434mn) including US$200mn (SDR 154mn) under the RSF.
  • IMF’s key priorities include cementing macroeconomic stability through consistent implementation of sound macro policies, including rebuilding international reserve buffers, and broadening the tax base implementation of reforms to boost market competition, enhance productivity & competitiveness, reform state-owned enterprises (SOEs), improve the delivery of public services and ensure the financial viability of the energy sector.
Automobile Assemblers: Nov’25: Passenger Vehicle Sales down 11%MoM – By Taurus Research

Dec 12 2025


Taurus Securities


  • According to data from the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturing Association (PAMA), automobile sales in Nov’25 showed a de crease of 11%MoM in volumes for Passenger Cars, Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs), and Jeeps, totaling 15,420 units. Moreover, on a yearly basis sales experienced a 53% surge as compared to the SPLY. INDU’s market share marginally decreased by 1ppts MoM to 25%, while HCAR’s share improved 2ppts to 17%. Hyundai’s market share remained unchanged, whereas SAZEW’s share marginally decreased~ 1% to 7%. Meanwhile, PSMC’s market share remained stable at 43%. Moreover, 5MFY26 car sales rose 48%YoY to 74,835 units compared to 50,669 units sold last year.
  • The yearly growth in sales during Nov’25 can be attributed to several factors, stable inflation, fuel prices, interest rates and dis counted car prices along with the release of new variants. Moreover, the MoM decrease in auto sales was led by decrease in volumes for PSMC, INDU, Hyundai, SAZEW, GAL and DFML and increase in GHNI reflecting strong competition between the companies in the market. This results in a mixed performance that limits overall growth. Going forward, easing inflation and declining interest rates are expected to support demand recovery, partially offsetting the negative impact of the recent fiscal measures.
Morning News: Pakistan receives $1.2bn from IMF, confirms SBP – By HMFS Research

Dec 12 2025


HMFS Research


  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday said it has received about $1.2 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The amount would be reflected in SBP’s foreign exchange reserves for the week ending 12 December 2025, which are expected to be published next week, it added.
  • The IMF has imposed 11 new structural benchmarks on Pakistan to strengthen fiscal management, governance, and sectoral reforms after noting that the country met 8 of 13 earlier targets. These new benchmarks require the government to finalize an FBR reform roadmap, publish a medium-term tax reform strategy, and enhance transparency by making senior civil servants’ asset declarations public and issuing an action plan to address corruption risks. Additional conditions include studies and action plans to lower remittance costs, boost FX inflows, and develop the local currency bond market. The IMF also demands progress on energy sector reforms by preparing HESCO and SEPCO for private sector participation, signing PSO agreements with major SOEs to improve transparency, and adopting a national sugar market liberalization policy.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Dec 12 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index staged a rebound session today, climbing to an intraday high of 170,052.87 before settling at all time high of 169,864.52, up by 1,289.83 points (0.77%). The upward momentum was fuelled by robust buying interest in fertilizer, commercial banks, Technology & Communication, oil and gas exploration companies, OMCs and Cement.
  • On the economic front, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slapped 11 new structural benchmarks (SBs) on Pakistan, including developing and publishing a comprehensive medium-term (3 to 5 years) tax reform strategy, asset declarations of high-level federal civil servants and an action plan to mitigate corruption vulnerabilities in identified departments. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s central bank is expected to retain interest rates at 11% on Monday as analysts push back rate-cut forecasts to late 2026 after the IMF warned inflation risks persist and policy must stay “appropriately tight”. Among major contributors FFC, MCB, SYS, PPL, & HUBC, which collectively added 783.31 points to the benchmark index. HUMNL led volumes with 71.84 million shares; as overall market participation reached 873.03 million shares.
Pakistan Economy: SBP Expected to keep Policy Rate unchanged at 11% – By AHCML Research

Dec 12 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The State Bank of Pakistan's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is highly anticipated to maintain the policy rate unchanged at 11% in its upcoming meeting on December 15, 2025. This decision is driven by a complex mix of opposing economic forces. Significant upside risks to inflation from recent flood disruptions is the primary culprits. However, this is countered by strengthening external sector stability, evidenced by a strong forex reserves level along with massive foreign inflows from international financial institutions. Along with stable PKR and a rebound in industrial activity, with the LSM index growing at 4.08%YoY in 1QFY26. The MPC is expected to prioritize anchoring inflation expectations while leveraging the improved external position to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach, assessing the full impact of the flood-induced economic disruptions before making any policy rate cut.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Dec 10 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s benchmark KSE-100 Index witnessed a volatile trading session, touching an all time high of 170,697.74 before closing at 169,451.86, down -4.52 points (0.00%). Market sentiment remained cautious as profit-taking dominated the day, with investors reducing exposure across key sectors including Fertilizer, Leather & Tanneries, and Oil & Gas Exploration Companies.
  • On the economic front, a major development emerged as the US Export-Import Bank approved $1.25 billion in financing to support the mining of critical minerals at Reko Diq, marking a significant boost to Pakistan’s strategic minerals sector and long-term investment outlook. Among major laggards, FFC, SRVI, PPL, ENGROH, and HUBC collectively dragged the index by -524.62 points. In the volumes chart, HUMNL led activity with 132.04 million shares, while total market participation stood at 1,190.53 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Dec 8 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index continued its upward momentum, surging to a intraday high of 168,755.18 points before settling at a closing level of 168,303, up 1,217.66 points (0.73%). The bullish sentiment was underpinned by strong investor interest across key sectors, particularly Fertilizer, Technology and communication, commercial banks, Cement, oil and gas exploration companies and OMCs. On the macro front, the IMF Executive Board is scheduled to convene today to review Pakistan’s Second Review under the 37-month EFF as well as the First Review of the 28-month RSF a key event that may shape near-term macroeconomic expectations.
  • Meanwhile, concerns re-emerged on the external account side, as Pakistan’s continued import tariff rationalization paired with further reductions anticipated under the National Tariff Policy 2025-30 is expected to place additional pressure on the already elevated trade deficit. Among major contributors FFC, SYS, NBP, PTC, & DGKC, which collectively added 845.68 points to the benchmark index. PTC led volumes with 60.90 million shares; as overall market participation reached 783.08 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Dec 4 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index remained volatile, touching an intraday high of 166,837 before closing 138 points higher (+0.08%) at 166,284. Market sentiment improved by the following key developments, The Saudi Arabia Fund for Development extended the USD 3.0 billion deposit for another year, Pakistan’s external debt-to-GDP ratio dropped to 26% in FY25, the long-delayed NFC session finally began, and Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan signed 15 MoUs to boost bilateral cooperation. Top contributors included SRVI, PIOC, PTC, ENGROH, and PPL, collectively adding 287.87 points. LPL led the volumes with 108.92 million shares, while total market turnover stood at 607.79 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Dec 1 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index continued its upward momentum, surging to a intraday high of 168,246.22 points before settling at a closing level of 168,062, up 1,384.50 points (0.83%). The bullish sentiment was underpinned by strong investor interest across key sectors, particularly automobile assemblers, cement, commercial banks, fertiliser, oil and gas exploration companies and OMCs. On the macro front, Pakistan’s headline inflation came in at 6.1% YoY for November 2025, slightly above the Ministry of Finance’s projected range of 5–6%, reflecting persistent cost pressures.
  • Meanwhile, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb noted that recent climate-induced disruptions, including widespread flooding, are expected to shave approximately 0.5% off Pakistan’s GDP growth, underscoring the economy’s heightened exposure to extreme weather events. Among major contributors HUBC, OGDC, LUCK, MARI, & MCB, which collectively added 621.75 points to the benchmark index. FNEL led volumes with 70.035 million shares; as overall market participation reached 735.52 million shares.
Morning News: Govt to share list of 250 Pakistani business houses with Egypt – By AHCML Research

Dec 1 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said on Sunday that Pakistan will share a list of 250 leading Pakistani business houses with Egypt to boost bilateral commercial engagement.
  • The business community has welcomed the decision of government to abolish the Export Development Surcharge imposed on export-oriented industries, terming it a step in the right direction towards support to export growth receipts, while urging the government to continue the facilitation to exporters for enhancing the competitiveness of Pakistani products in the global markets.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Nov 28 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index continued its upward momentum despite the ongoing rollover week, surging to a intraday high of 167,005 points before settling at a closing level of 166,678, up 1,304.38 points (0.79%). The bullish sentiment was underpinned by strong investor interest across key sectors, particularly Technology & Communications, Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, Cement, and Commercial Banks. On the economic front, expectations of a reduction in domestic petroleum prices from December 1, 2025 driven by softer international crude and refined product prices further supported market sentiment. Concurrently.
  • The government, through SIFC, plans to abolish the super tax and cut the corporate tax rate to 25% a move expected to boost PSX-listed companies, attract investment, and support export led growth, though its execution hinges on IMF commitments and the upcoming finance bill. Among major contributors SYS, PPL, HUBC, OGDC, & LUCK, which collectively added 608.81 points to the benchmark index. SSGC led volumes with 39.182 million shares; as overall market participation reached 592.75 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Nov 27 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index continued its upward momentum despite the ongoing rollover week, surging to a intraday high of 165,611 points before settling at a closing level of 165,373, up 2,184.78 points (1.34%). The upward momentum was fueled by robust buying interest in commercial banks, cement, fertilizer, oil and gas exploration companies, OMCs, power generation and refinery.
  • On the economic front, addressing the Pakistan Business Council’s Dialogue on the Economy 2025, the Finance Minister projected GDP growth of 3.5% for the current year, with expectations of 4% growth over the next two to three years. He further highlighted the potential for 6–7% medium-term growth, contingent upon continued reforms and sustained momentum in agriculture, manufacturing, and services sectors. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s annual fuel oil exports reached an all-time high this year, with volumes expected to remain steady or trend higher next year. Among major contributors MEBL, LUCK, PPL, OGDC, & ENGROH, which collectively added 941.96 points to the benchmark index. DSL led volumes with 48.39 million shares; as overall market participation reached 498.36 million shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Nov 25 2025


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced another volatile trading session today, climbing to an intraday high of 162,820 before settling at 161,692, down -291.59 points (-0.18%). Investor sentiment remained restrained amid the ongoing rollover week, with profit-taking exerting pressure as market participants reduced exposure across key sectors, including Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, Commercial Banks, Power & Energy, and Oil & Gas Marketing Companies. On the economic front, the government has announced the immediate withdrawal of the 0.25% Export Development Surcharge (EDS) on exports offering long- awaited relief to exporters and enhancing Pakistan’s competitiveness in international markets. Top drags to index included ENGROH, PPL, NBP, BAHL, & HUBC, which collectively pulled the benchmark down by -302.69 points. WTL led volumes with 59.20 million shares; overall market turnover was 590.54 million shares.