Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 Ends Year Lower Despite Historic Intra-Day High – By HMFS Research

Dec 31 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed the final session of the year on a softer note, capping off a volatile trading day marked by early optimism and subsequent profit-taking. The benchmark KSE-100 Index opened firmly and surged to an intraday high of 175,232.90, crossing the 175,000 level for the first time in history. However, the rally proved short-lived as investors moved swiftly to lock in gains, particularly following the strong year-end performance. Selling pressure emerged soon after the opening surge and intensified through the late morning session, dragging the index to an intraday low of 173,564. At close, the KSE-100 Index settled at 174,054, down 418 points on a day-on-day basis. Despite the index decline, market activity remained steady. Volumes stood at 414mn shares on the benchmark index, while 955mn shares were traded on the broader All-Share index, underscoring sustained investor participation.
  • Among individual names, KEL (96mn shares), PIAHCLA (62mn), and PIBTL (48mn) led the activity chart. Going forward, near-term market direction is likely to remain range-bound and selective, as investors reassess valuations following the sharp rally seen over recent weeks. With key macro triggers largely priced in, incremental upside may now hinge on earnings visibility, sector specific developments, and clarity on policy continuity into the new year. From an investment standpoint, we advise investors to avoid chasing momentum at elevated levels and instead use volatility-driven pullbacks to accumulate fundamentally strong stocks with earnings resilience and balance sheet strength.
Oil Marketing Companies (OMC): OMC sales up 6% YoY and down 5% MoM in Dec 2025;1HFY26 sales up 2% YoY – By Topline Research

Jan 2 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan's Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) recorded sales of 1.35mn tons in Dec 2025, up 6% YoY and down 5% MoM.
  • The YoY increase is due to economic recovery, lower inflation, and control of smuggling, whereas the MoM decrease in sales is attributable to the strike by transporters. To highlight, Transporters went on a nationwide strike on Dec 08, 2025 which continued for 10 days.
  • This takes total sales for 1HFY26 to 8.2mn tons, reflecting a 2% YoY increase compared to 8.02mn tons in 1HFY25.
Pakistan Fertilizers: Pakistan’s Urea sales for Dec 2025 at all time high of 1,356k tons; Inventory at 0.31mn tons – By Topline Research

Jan 2 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Urea sales in Dec 2025 is anticipated to clock in at all time high of 1,356k tons, up by 65% MoM and 37% YoY amid push sales from company/dealers through higher discounts offerings. This takes 2025 urea offtakes to 6.73mn tons, up 2% YoY compared to 6.57mn tons in 2024, respectively. To note, in 11M2025, urea sales was down 4%.
  • As per our checks, EFERT has maintained discount around Rs400/bag during the month of Dec 2025. However, this discount was rolled back to Rs150 /bag at the start of the new year. Similarly, FFC also offered discount of Rs 150–200 per bag during the same period.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Upside to continue – By JS Research

Jan 2 2026


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index showed positive movement to close at 176,355 level, up 2,301 points. Volumes stood at 1,403mn shares versus 957mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to revisit yesterday's high of 176,658 where a break above that will continue the uptrend towards 180,500 level. However, any downside will find support between 174,430 and 175,820 levels, respectively. The RSI and the MACD have moved up, supporting a positive view. We recommend investors to 'Buy on dips', with risk defined below 174,437 level. The support and resistance are at 174,976 and 177,197 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Oil edges higher following biggest annual loss since 2020 - By Shajar Research

Jan 2 2026


Shajar Capital


  • Oil prices edged up on the first day of trade in 2026 after last year posting their biggest annual loss since 2020, as Ukrainian drones targeted Russian oil facilities and a U.S. blockade pressured Venezuela's exports. (Reuters)
  • Stocks kicked off the new year on a positive note, with Asian shares and US equity-index futures advancing, while precious metals rebounded after a soft finish to 2025. (Bloomberg)
Morning News: Urgent need to fast-track govt’s ambitious economic reforms: PM - By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 2 2026


Alpha Capital


  • In a forceful kick-off to 2026, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday directed that ministries take immediate and decisive action, underscoring the urgent need to fast-track the government’s ambitious economic reforms aimed at steering the country’s faltering economy back on track.
  • In a bold move to tackle the country’s crippling energy crisis, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thurs day called for an urgent and aggressive push to explore and extract new oil and gas reserves, warning that continued reliance on costly petroleum imports is unsustainable.
Morning News: T-bills attract $20m in net foreign inflows - By Vector Research

Jan 2 2026


Vector Securities


  • Pakistan’s short-term local government bonds saw net foreign inflows of $20 million in December, compared with $42.2 million in outflows recorded in the previous month. Overseas investors poured $77.29 million in treasury bills as of December 25 but divested $57.27 million, data from the State Bank of Pakistan showed on Thursday. (The News)
  • Pakistan will benefit from a technical assistance approved by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) that will support member countries in systematically shaping future sustainable transport investments. (Dawn)
Morning News: Inflation in Pakistan clocks in at 5.6% in December 2025: - By HMFS Research

Jan 2 2026


HMFS Research


  • Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 5.6% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in December 2025, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Thursday, a reading in line with the Ministry of Finance estimate of 5.5-6.5%. The consumer price index (CPI) was recorded at 6.1% in November 2025. The CPI stood at 4.1% in December 2024. On a month-on-month basis, it decreased by 0.4% in December 2025, as compared to an increase of 0.4% in the previous month and an increase of 0.1% in December 2024. This takes the 6MFY26 inflation reading at 5.15% against 7.22% in 6MFY25.
  • In a bold move to tackle the country’s crippling energy crisis, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday called for an urgent and aggressive push to explore and extract new oil and gas reserves, warning that continued reliance on costly petroleum imports is unsustainable. harif made it clear that Pakistan must shift its focus towards domestic energy production or risk deeper economic challenges. “We can no longer afford to rely on expensive imports,” he stated, underscoring the need for swift action. He also called for a digital overhaul of the oil and gas supply chain, from importation to the end consumer, highlighting how this will not only increase efficiency but also tackle the rampant smuggling of petroleum products. The meeting was briefed on recent developments in the oil and gas sector, with officials highlighting a significant discovery by the Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd. (OGDCL), with an estimated 4,100 barrels of oil set to be extracted daily.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Note – By Vector Research

Jan 1 2026


Vector Securities


  • Evening Note.
Pakistan Market Wrap: New Year, New Highs: Bulls Carry Momentum into 2026 – By HMFS Research

Jan 1 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index scaled fresh highs at the start of the new calendar year, extending its bullish run as the benchmark touched an intra-day peak of 176,658. Momentum remained firmly intact throughout the session, underpinned by easing inflationary pressures—December 2025 CPI came in at 5.6%—alongside a reduction in petroleum prices, which collectively supported risk appetite across equities. The index ultimately closed at 176,355, marking a solid gain of 2,301 points for the day. Sectoral leadership came from Banking and E&P stocks, which provided the bulk of the upward thrust.
  • Market participation was notably strong, with volumes rising to 799mn shares on the KSE-100 and 1.40bn shares across the broader market. Activity was concentrated in KEL (373mn), PIBTL (140mn), and BOP (55mn). Looking ahead, the government’s reform-driven policy framework is anticipated to enhance economic resilience, underpinning investor confidence and supporting equity market expansion. While the prevailing trend remains constructive, elevated valuations at current levels may invite intermittent profit-taking. Nonetheless, sustained interest from investors seeking strategic positioning suggests the market’s broader trajectory remains intact. Investors are advised to remain composed amid short-term fluctuations and focus on fundamentally strong names with long-term growth visibility.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 1 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The benchmark KSE-100 Index posted a strong rebound, surging to an intraday high of 176,658.38 before closing at an all-time high of 176,355.49 and registering a gain of 2,301.17 points (1.32%). The rally was driven by broad- based buying, led primarily by Commercial Banks and Oil & Gas stocks, alongside selective strength in cement, fertilizer, and power sectors.
  • Positive sentiment prevailed on the eve of the new year, with fresh fund allocations for investment plans contributing to the momentum. On the macroeconomic front, headline inflation eased to 5.6%YoY in Dec’25, within the Ministry of Finance’s projected range, while the FBR’s provisional tax collection for the 1HFY26 stood at PKR 6,154 billion, falling short of the target by PKR 336 billion. In terms of index contribution, UBL, OGDC, ENGRO, HBL, and MEBL emerged as key drivers, collectively adding 1,086.27 points to the benchmark. On the volumes front, KEL led activity with 372.71 million shares, while overall market turnover stood at 1,399.85 million shares, reflecting healthy participation
Morning News: Inflation in Pakistan clocks in at 5.6% in December 2025: - By HMFS Research

Jan 2 2026


HMFS Research


  • Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 5.6% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in December 2025, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Thursday, a reading in line with the Ministry of Finance estimate of 5.5-6.5%. The consumer price index (CPI) was recorded at 6.1% in November 2025. The CPI stood at 4.1% in December 2024. On a month-on-month basis, it decreased by 0.4% in December 2025, as compared to an increase of 0.4% in the previous month and an increase of 0.1% in December 2024. This takes the 6MFY26 inflation reading at 5.15% against 7.22% in 6MFY25.
  • In a bold move to tackle the country’s crippling energy crisis, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday called for an urgent and aggressive push to explore and extract new oil and gas reserves, warning that continued reliance on costly petroleum imports is unsustainable. harif made it clear that Pakistan must shift its focus towards domestic energy production or risk deeper economic challenges. “We can no longer afford to rely on expensive imports,” he stated, underscoring the need for swift action. He also called for a digital overhaul of the oil and gas supply chain, from importation to the end consumer, highlighting how this will not only increase efficiency but also tackle the rampant smuggling of petroleum products. The meeting was briefed on recent developments in the oil and gas sector, with officials highlighting a significant discovery by the Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd. (OGDCL), with an estimated 4,100 barrels of oil set to be extracted daily.
Pakistan Market Wrap: New Year, New Highs: Bulls Carry Momentum into 2026 – By HMFS Research

Jan 1 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index scaled fresh highs at the start of the new calendar year, extending its bullish run as the benchmark touched an intra-day peak of 176,658. Momentum remained firmly intact throughout the session, underpinned by easing inflationary pressures—December 2025 CPI came in at 5.6%—alongside a reduction in petroleum prices, which collectively supported risk appetite across equities. The index ultimately closed at 176,355, marking a solid gain of 2,301 points for the day. Sectoral leadership came from Banking and E&P stocks, which provided the bulk of the upward thrust.
  • Market participation was notably strong, with volumes rising to 799mn shares on the KSE-100 and 1.40bn shares across the broader market. Activity was concentrated in KEL (373mn), PIBTL (140mn), and BOP (55mn). Looking ahead, the government’s reform-driven policy framework is anticipated to enhance economic resilience, underpinning investor confidence and supporting equity market expansion. While the prevailing trend remains constructive, elevated valuations at current levels may invite intermittent profit-taking. Nonetheless, sustained interest from investors seeking strategic positioning suggests the market’s broader trajectory remains intact. Investors are advised to remain composed amid short-term fluctuations and focus on fundamentally strong names with long-term growth visibility.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 Ends Year Lower Despite Historic Intra-Day High – By HMFS Research

Dec 31 2025


HMFS Research


  • The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed the final session of the year on a softer note, capping off a volatile trading day marked by early optimism and subsequent profit-taking. The benchmark KSE-100 Index opened firmly and surged to an intraday high of 175,232.90, crossing the 175,000 level for the first time in history. However, the rally proved short-lived as investors moved swiftly to lock in gains, particularly following the strong year-end performance. Selling pressure emerged soon after the opening surge and intensified through the late morning session, dragging the index to an intraday low of 173,564. At close, the KSE-100 Index settled at 174,054, down 418 points on a day-on-day basis. Despite the index decline, market activity remained steady. Volumes stood at 414mn shares on the benchmark index, while 955mn shares were traded on the broader All-Share index, underscoring sustained investor participation.
  • Among individual names, KEL (96mn shares), PIAHCLA (62mn), and PIBTL (48mn) led the activity chart. Going forward, near-term market direction is likely to remain range-bound and selective, as investors reassess valuations following the sharp rally seen over recent weeks. With key macro triggers largely priced in, incremental upside may now hinge on earnings visibility, sector specific developments, and clarity on policy continuity into the new year. From an investment standpoint, we advise investors to avoid chasing momentum at elevated levels and instead use volatility-driven pullbacks to accumulate fundamentally strong stocks with earnings resilience and balance sheet strength.
Morning News: Economy expands 3.71pc in 1QFY26 – By HMFS Research

Dec 31 2025


HMFS Research


  • Pakistan’s economy grew by 3.71 per cent in the first quarter (July-September) of the current fiscal year, a sizable increase from 1.56pc recorded in the same period last year. However, the economy slowed down when compared with the 6.17pc expansion in the previous quarter (April-June), apparently due to weak consumer demand and the impact of monsoon floods weighing on overall economic activity, according to data released by the National Accounts Committee (NAC) on Tuesday. The year-on-year quarterly growth was mainly driven by a 9.38pc increase in the industrial sector, followed by 2.89pc growth in the agriculture sector and 2.35pc in the services sector. The combined performance of these three key sectors contributed significantly to the overall economic expansion during the quarter.
  • Pakistan and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Tuesday signed two major climate resilience initiatives amounting to USD 304.5 million. These initiatives include: i) the Sindh Coastal Resilience Sector Project (SCRP) amounting to USD 180.5 million, and ii) the Punjab Climate Resilient and Low Carbon Agriculture Mechanization Project amounting to USD 124 million. Muhammad Humair Karim, Secretary, Ministry of Economic Affairs, expressed his sincere appreciation for ADB’s role as a trusted development partner and its continued support to Pakistan in advancing climate resilience, sustainable agriculture, and inclusive growth. He highlighted that the Sindh Coastal Resilience Project will promote integrated water resources and flood risk management, restore nature-based coastal defenses, and strengthen institutional and community capacity for strategic action planning.
Morning News: Oil falls $1 on supply glut: - By HMFS Research

Dec 29 2025


HMFS Research


  • Oil prices fell by more than $1 a barrel on Friday as investors weighed a looming global supply glut and a reduced war risk premium, amid hopes of a Ukraine peace deal ahead of talks this weekend between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump. Brent crude futures fell $1.03 or 1.65pc to $61.21 per barrel by 11:42am EDT (1642 GMT). US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.05 or 1.8pc to $57.30.
  • Amid improving fiscal space, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a declining Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP), rising defence spending and generally stabilising interest payments from the current year onwards through the fiscal year 2030. IMF projections show that interest payments for the last fiscal year (FY25) were originally estimated at 7.7 per cent of GDP but ended at 7.8pc. For the current year, the Fund has revised its estimate to 6.5pc of GDP from 6.7pc in view of lower policy rates. Based on detailed interactions with the government as part of the second review of its $7 billion Extended Fund Facility, the IMF said the PSDP expenditure, originally estimated at 0.9pc of GDP in FY25, had been contained to 0.7pc to make up for the revenue shortfalls. The PSDP has been estimated to stay unchanged at 0.7pc for the current year. Conversely, the size of defence expenditure would make a comeback both in absolute terms and as a share of the national economy.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Muted Activity Keeps KSE-100 in Consolidation Mode – By HMFS Research

Dec 24 2025


HMFS Research


  • The benchmark index endured a relatively subdued session today, trading within a narrow range as investor activity remained largely cautious. The market oscillated between an intraday high of +514 points and a low of -433 points, reflecting a lack of conviction on either side. By close, the index shed 244 points, settling at 170,830, as mild profit-taking capped any upside momentum. Trading volumes offered little support to sentiment, remaining unremarkable with 320mn shares exchanged on the benchmark index and 809mn shares on the All-Share.
  • Activity was concentrated in PIBTL (62mn), BOP (61mn), and PIAHCLA (54mn), indicating selective interest rather than broad-based participation. Going forward, the market’s range-bound behavior underscores growing investor hesitancy near record levels, with participants awaiting clearer macro cues, policy direction, and corporate triggers before committing fresh capital. The absence of strong follow through buying suggests upside may remain capped in the near term unless supported by incremental positive developments. Investors are advised to adopt a selective and disciplined approach, focusing on fundamentally strong names with earnings visibility, while remaining mindful of near-term volatility and potential consolidation at elevated index levels.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 Consolidates Near Record Levels Amid Cautious Trading – By HMFS Research

Dec 22 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index remained largely range-bound, indicating consolidation after the recent record-setting rally. The benchmark opened higher and gained traction in early trade, touching an intraday high of 763 points on selective buying in indexheavy stocks. However, the move lacked sustainability as investors adopted a cautious stance at elevated levels, leading to mild profit-taking and sideways movement for the rest of the session.
  • The index closed at 171,204 points, down 200 points, reflecting a pause in momentum rather than a shift in the broader trend. Market activity stayed moderate, with KSE-100 volumes at 327mn shares and total market volumes at 682mn shares, signaling measured participation. Trading interest remained concentrated in a few names, led by KEL with 113mn shares, followed by TPLRF1 (49mn shares) and PIAHCLA (29mn shares), underscoring continued rotation within speculative and high-beta stocks. Going forward, market direction is likely to hinge on incremental triggers, with consolidation at current levels viewed as healthy in the context of improving macro fundamentals. Investors are advised to remain vigilant and focus on fundamentally strong stocks that offer sustainable long-term growth potential.
Morning News: C/A swings to $100m surplus in November – By HMFS Research

Dec 18 2025


HMFS Research


  • The current account posted a $100 million surplus in November, offering a respite after deficits in earlier months of the current fiscal year, according to the latest data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). The surplus followed a current account deficit of $291m in October. However, the SBP figures suggest the improvement in November was largely driven by lower imports, although exports also fell during the month. Exports and imports both declined in November compared with October. Exports fell 10pc, while imports dropped 12pc over the previous month, helping narrow the external gap.
  • Pakistan’s cargo transporters – including those operating between Karachi seaports and factories nationwide – called off the wheel jam strike on Wednesday, stating that the government had agreed to address their demands including increasing time for “20-feet long 10-wheel cargo vehicles” to 19 hours a day on roads. TGA, along with other nine transporters associations, remained on the strike for about seven days - from last Thursday to Wednesday – giving millions of rupees economic losses a day to the government exchequer and factory owners. “Moreover, the government has promised to allot 50 acres of land for the vehicle parking at Karachi NLC near American embassy.” https://www.brecorder.com/news/40397941/pakistan-cargo-transpor
Pakistan Market Wrap: Range-Bound Session Sees Investors Lock in Gains at Elevated Levels – By HMFS Research

Dec 17 2025


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced a largely range-bound and indecisive session on the PSX, as early optimism gave way to measured profit-taking at elevated levels. The benchmark opened in positive territory; however, as valuations stretched beyond the 170k mark, investors opted to lock in gains, gradually shifting the session into negative territory. Selling pressure intensified during the day, dragging the index to an intra-day low of 1,217 points, though intermittent buying attempts briefly lifted the benchmark before renewed pressure capped the recovery.
  • Consequently, the index closed at 170,314, marginally lower by 133 points. Volumes stood at 435mn shares on the KSE-100, while total market turnover reached 1.07bn shares. Trading activity was concentrated in select names, with BOP (91mn), HASCOL (84mn), and TPL (53mn) leading the volume charts. From a macro perspective, the market is expected to draw underlying support from improving external dynamics in the days forward. Further developments align with the November trade surplus of USD 100mn, which has reinforced confidence in external account stabilization which would help cushioning downside pressure and sustaining equity valuations amid intermittent selling. In this environment, investors are advised to remain vigilant to evolving developments and focus on fundamentally strong stocks with long-term growth potential.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Early Gains Fade as Investors Lock in Profits – By HMFS Research

Dec 16 2025


HMFS Research


  • The market opened on a firm footing but failed to sustain momentum, slipping into a range-bound session as early optimism gave way to profit taking. Despite the post-MPC rate cut of 50bps — the first after four consecutive holds — investors opted to lock in gains, particularly in key index heavyweights that had already seen sharp run-ups.
  • The KSE-100 oscillated between an intraday high of 1,181 points and a low of 549 points before closing at 170,447, down 294 points. Trading activity remained healthy, with volumes clocking in at 475mn shares on the KSE100 and 1.17bn shares on the All-Share Index. PIBTL (102mn), BOP (89mn) and TPLP (80mn) led volumes for the day. Near-term market direction is likely to remain choppy, as the rate cut appears largely priced in and investors reassess valuations amid selective profit-taking. Investors should remain selective, using any volatility-driven dips to accumulate fundamentally strong names while avoiding momentum driven trades.