Pakistan Economy: Monetary Policy Survey – By Topline Research

Jan 15 2026


Topline Securities


  • State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is scheduled to hold the first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of 2026 on Jan 26, 2026. Unlike previous poll of Dec 2025 MPC meeting, where 70% were expecting status quo, now 80% are expecting a rate cut.
  • Out of 80% rate cut participants, 56.4% expect 50bps cut, 15.4% expect 100bps cut, 5% expect 25 bps cut and 3% expect 75bps cut.
Oil & Gas Exploration: E&Ps profitability likely to decline by 15% YoY and 7% QoQ in 2QFY26 – By Topline Research

Jan 16 2026


Topline Securities


  • We expect Topline E&P universe to post a 15% YoY decline in earnings in 2QFY26, primarily due to a decline in gas production and oil prices.
  • Oil production averaged 64.7k bpd during the quarter, reflecting a 2% YoY increase, while gas production fell 4% to around 2,732 mmcfd. The impact of this decline in gas volumes was compounded by a 13% YoY decrease in Arab Light crude prices, which averaged USD65.37/barrel in 2QFY26. In addition, a 48% YoY decline in other income, driven by the absence of one-off gains and a lower interest rate, is likely to further weigh on profitability.
  • On a sequential basis, sector earnings are expected to witness a 7% decline, despite a 4% improvement in oil volumes during the quarter, as the decline in gas production combined with weaker oil prices is likely to more than offset the gains.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Testing the support range – By JS Research

Jan 16 2026


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 index extended the decline to close at 181,456, down 1,113 points DoD. Volumes stood at 820mn shares versus 1,034mn shares traded previously. The index is likely to test support between 180,590 and 180,790 levels as a drop below that will target 179,043 level. However, any upside will face resistance in the range of 181,985-183,720 levels. The RSI and the MACD have continued to move down, supporting a negative view. Investors are recommended to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance are at 180,254 and 183,188 levels, respectively.
Morning News: Govt hikes levy on petrol, HOBC, HSD – By HMFS Research

Jan 16 2026


HMFS Research


  • The government on Thursday increased the Petroleum Levy (PL) on petrol by Rs4.62 per litre and high-speed diesel (HSD) by Re0.80, effectively denying consumers any relief as it opted to maintain the existing pump prices for the next fortnight. The PL on High Octane Blending Component (HOBC) was also raised by Rs4.62 per litre, pushing the total PL on petrol and HOBC from Rs79.62 to Rs84.27 per litre.
  • The PL on HSD has risen to Rs76.21 per litre from Rs75.41. In addition, the government continues to collect a Climate Support Levy (CSL) of Rs2.50 per litre on petrol, HSD and HOBC. Consumers of kerosene and light diesel oil also face a PL of Rs20.36 and Rs15.84 per litre, respectively. Fuel prices are further impacted by the Inland Freight Equalization Margin (IFEM), which stands at Rs8.97 per litre on petrol and Rs7.25 per litre on HSD.
Pakistan Economy: Monetary Policy Survey – By Topline Research

Jan 15 2026


Topline Securities


  • State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is scheduled to hold the first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of 2026 on Jan 26, 2026. Unlike previous poll of Dec 2025 MPC meeting, where 70% were expecting status quo, now 80% are expecting a rate cut.
  • Out of 80% rate cut participants, 56.4% expect 50bps cut, 15.4% expect 100bps cut, 5% expect 25 bps cut and 3% expect 75bps cut.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Evening Chronicle – By AHCML Research

Jan 15 2026


Al Habib Capital Markets


  • The KSE-100 Index experienced a volatile session, hitting an intraday high of 183,717.53 before closing at 181,456.33, down 1,113 points (-0.61%) as profit-taking set in. Selling pressure was evident across key sectors, particularly Commercial Banks, accounting for almost half of total index losses, while technology and Oil & Gas E&P names also saw heavy selling.
  • On the macro front, the Government of Pakistan signed an MoU with SC Financial Technologies LLC, an affiliate of World Liberty Financial USA, to promote next-generation digital payment systems and cross-border financial innovation. Separately, customs authorities achieved a key industry-wide reform by mandating the application of official bank exchange rates for international shipping charges, effectively curbing arbitrary and excessive billing practices. Among major laggards, UBL, ENGROH, SYS, MCB and EFERT, which cumulatively shaved - 622.17 points off the benchmark. HASCOL led trading with 62.65 million shares, as total market turnover reached 817.95 mn shares.
Pakistan Market Wrap: Gains Locked, Caution Rules: KSE-100 Navigates Profit-Taking Waves – By HMFS Research

Jan 15 2026


HMFS Research


  • The KSE-100 Index remained under pressure during today’s session, extending the ongoing profit-taking phase as investors continued to lock in gains at elevated valuations. Sentiment was tempered by international market jitters, which weighed on risk appetite across the board. That said, improving domestic economic fundamentals provided partial support, resulting in selective buying across certain sectors and allowing the benchmark to briefly trade in positive territory during the session. However, selling pressure resurfaced in the latter half, dragging the index back into the red, where it ultimately closed at 181,456, down 1,113 points from the previous close.
  • Market participation remained healthy, with 281mn shares traded on the KSE-100 and 818mn shares changing hands in the broader market. Leading volume contributors for the day were HASCOL (63mn), MDTL (44mn), and NCPL (37mn). Market activity reflects a cautious yet constructive stance, with investors balancing selective accumulation in value-driven names against profit realization at stretched levels. Global developments are likely to remain a key swing factor in near-term market direction. Meanwhile, ongoing discussions surrounding potential defence equipment exports present a medium-term catalyst, as successful execution could support external reserves and strengthen sentiment. In this backdrop, investors are advised to remain vigilant, adopt a disciplined approach, and focus on fundamentally strong stocks offering sustainable long-term growth.
Pakistan Market Wrap: View from the Desk – By JS Research

Jan 15 2026


JS Global Capital


  • The KSE-100 Index endured a volatile session today, closing at 181,456 points, down 0.6%. Despite a nearly intraday rally, the market succumbed to renewed selling pressure amid profit-taking. This bearish sentiment was primarily triggered by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over a potential reacceleration of inflation due to rising energy costs and external sector imbalances. While current volatility persists, the long-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic. If corporate earnings for the upcoming quarter exceed expectations and regional stability improves, the index is well-positioned to resume its trajectory toward the 187,000 resistance zone.
Pakistan Market Wrap: KSE-100 closes at 181,456 down 1,113 points – By Alpha-Akseer Research

Jan 15 2026


Alpha Capital


  • The equity market opened on a positive note but failed to maintain momentum. The KSE-100 Index reached an intraday high of 183,718 and a low of 180,784 before closing at 181,456, registering a decline of 1,113 points. Total volumes on the main board stood at 279 million shares, with a traded value of PKR 31 billion.
  • The index’s decline was largely driven by selling pressure in key stocks, including UBL (-1.2%, -172 points), ENGROH (-1.8%, -146 points), SYS (-2.3%, -113 points), MCB (-1.6%, -99 points), and EFERT (-1.8%, -91 points). On the activity front, BOP and PTC led volumes with traded shares of 28.6 million and 19 million, respectively.
Close - End Mutual Fund: Mutual Funds’ AUM tripled over the past 3-years – By JS Research

Jan 15 2026


JS Global Capital


  • As per the data compiled from MUFAP, mutual fund assets under management (AUMs) have tripled over the past three years, recording 11% YoY growth in Dec-2025.
  • Within total AUMs, investments in equity portfolios increased by 56%, while allocations to debt portfolios (income, fixed income, and money market funds) increased by 5% in CY25. Resultantly, equity’s share of total AUMs rose from a low of 10% in Dec-23 to 15% in Dec-25.
  • Ample domestic liquidity and improved equity market attractiveness have not only absorbed FIPI outflows but have also supported a broad-based market re-rating, with valuations rising from 3.5x in Dec-23 to 8x in Dec-25, with further upside potential.
Technical Outlook: KSE-100; Expected to trade in a range – By JS Research

Jan 15 2026


JS Global Capital


  • KSE-100 index showed negative movement to close at 182,570 level, down 1,382 points DoD. Volumes stood at 1,034mn shares versus 1,037mn shares traded previously. The index is expected to re-test support at 182,370 (yesterday's low) where a fall below that will target the recent low at 180,590. However, any upside will face resistance between 183,220 and 184,730 range, where a break above that will target 185,111 and 186,340 levels. The indicators are mixed, signaling no clear trading view. We recommend investors to stay cautious on the higher side and wait for dips. The support and resistance are at 181,718 and 184,074 levels, respectively.
Oil & Gas Exploration: E&Ps profitability likely to decline by 15% YoY and 7% QoQ in 2QFY26 – By Topline Research

Jan 16 2026


Topline Securities


  • We expect Topline E&P universe to post a 15% YoY decline in earnings in 2QFY26, primarily due to a decline in gas production and oil prices.
  • Oil production averaged 64.7k bpd during the quarter, reflecting a 2% YoY increase, while gas production fell 4% to around 2,732 mmcfd. The impact of this decline in gas volumes was compounded by a 13% YoY decrease in Arab Light crude prices, which averaged USD65.37/barrel in 2QFY26. In addition, a 48% YoY decline in other income, driven by the absence of one-off gains and a lower interest rate, is likely to further weigh on profitability.
  • On a sequential basis, sector earnings are expected to witness a 7% decline, despite a 4% improvement in oil volumes during the quarter, as the decline in gas production combined with weaker oil prices is likely to more than offset the gains.
Pakistan Economy: Monetary Policy Survey – By Topline Research

Jan 15 2026


Topline Securities


  • State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is scheduled to hold the first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of 2026 on Jan 26, 2026. Unlike previous poll of Dec 2025 MPC meeting, where 70% were expecting status quo, now 80% are expecting a rate cut.
  • Out of 80% rate cut participants, 56.4% expect 50bps cut, 15.4% expect 100bps cut, 5% expect 25 bps cut and 3% expect 75bps cut.
Pakistan Economy: Takeaways from Debt Management Office Briefing – By Topline Research

Jan 13 2026


Topline Securities


  • The Debt Management Office of Ministry of Finance held a meeting with financial market participants at PSX on Jan 12, 2026 to communicate their strategy and debt management plan through various new initiatives under pipeline.
  • The debt management office is also working on exchange rate linked notes/bonds for local investors to attract dollar liquidity within country or to meet demand of investors with dollar liquidity in place.
  • The government is also expected to issue 4 RFPs in global markets for issuance of Panda Bond and dollar bond. The 10-year Chinese bond currently yields less than 2%, while US bond of similar tenor yields between 4-4.5%. The Government expects rate on new issuance well within existing secondary market yields of Pakistan bonds, while Panda bonds likely to be further competitive.
Automobile Assemblers: Pakistan Car sales in Dec 2025 up 35% YoY and down 14% MoM to 13,280 units – By Topline Research

Jan 12 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Car sales (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 13,280 units in Dec 2025, reflecting a 35% YoY rise and 14% MoM decline. This took 1HFY26 sales to 88,322 units, a 46% YoY rise from 60,676 units in 1HFY25.
  • The yearly growth numbers are fueled by new entrants alongside lower interest, easing inflation, and improving macroeconomic sentiments.
Mari Energies (MARI): Allocation of Gas from Mari Field – By Topline Research

Jan 8 2026


Topline Securities


  • Mari Energies (MARI) has announced the approval of gas allocation from its Ghazij/Shawal discoveries in the Mari field at well head gas prices notified by OGRA (i.e. Petroleum Policy 2012 prices). The gas will be transported to consumers through Sui companies' network under the Third-Party Access (TPA) rules 2018 with applicable wheeling charges, in our view.
  • Under the revised allocation, the flows from MARI from HRL, Ghazij/Shawal, Deep and SML/SUL will increase to 1054mmcfd from the current direct allocation of ~850-900mmcfd over the next 2-3 years, following the development of the required infrastructure. This is a whopping increase of 180mmcfd. Until the completion of these developments, the gas supply will continue in its current form.
Oil Marketing Companies (OMC): OMC sales up 6% YoY and down 5% MoM in Dec 2025;1HFY26 sales up 2% YoY – By Topline Research

Jan 2 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan's Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) recorded sales of 1.35mn tons in Dec 2025, up 6% YoY and down 5% MoM.
  • The YoY increase is due to economic recovery, lower inflation, and control of smuggling, whereas the MoM decrease in sales is attributable to the strike by transporters. To highlight, Transporters went on a nationwide strike on Dec 08, 2025 which continued for 10 days.
  • This takes total sales for 1HFY26 to 8.2mn tons, reflecting a 2% YoY increase compared to 8.02mn tons in 1HFY25.
Pakistan Fertilizers: Pakistan’s Urea sales for Dec 2025 at all time high of 1,356k tons; Inventory at 0.31mn tons – By Topline Research

Jan 2 2026


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan Urea sales in Dec 2025 is anticipated to clock in at all time high of 1,356k tons, up by 65% MoM and 37% YoY amid push sales from company/dealers through higher discounts offerings. This takes 2025 urea offtakes to 6.73mn tons, up 2% YoY compared to 6.57mn tons in 2024, respectively. To note, in 11M2025, urea sales was down 4%.
  • As per our checks, EFERT has maintained discount around Rs400/bag during the month of Dec 2025. However, this discount was rolled back to Rs150 /bag at the start of the new year. Similarly, FFC also offered discount of Rs 150–200 per bag during the same period.
Pakistan Economy: Pakistan GDP grew 3.7% in 1QFY26 – By Topline Research

Dec 31 2025


Topline Securities


  • National Accounts Committee (NAC) released GDP estimates for 1QFY26, showing growth of 3.7% YoY which is highest first quarter growth in 4 years and higher than last 8 years average 1Q growth of 3.3%. While the committee has also revised up FY25 growth estimates marginally to 3.09% from earlier 3.04%.
  • The growth estimates of 1Q are higher than our expectations mainly due to 8-year high 1Q industrial growth of 9.4%, thanks to 25% growth in electricity, gas and water supply sectors and 21% growth in construction sector.
Pakistan Market: Local Manufacturing/Assembly of Mobile Phones up 7% MoM in Nov-25 – By Topline Research

Dec 29 2025


Topline Securities


  • As per the latest data released by the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA), local mobile phone companies manufactured/assembled 2.49mn units during Nov 2025, up 8% YoY compared to 2.31mn units in Nov 2024.
  • The modest increase in local production is due to a slight recovery as production has begun to normalise following the earlier slowdown and inventory build up.
  • Cumulatively, local manufacturing/assembly reached 27.6mn units in 11M2025, down 3% YoY.
Pakistan Technology: IT Exports in Nov-25 up by 14% YoY to record US$356mn – By Topline Research

Dec 17 2025


Topline Securities


  • Pakistan recorded monthly IT exports of US$356mn in Nov-25, up 14% YoY but down 8% MoM. These monthly IT exports in Nov-25 are higher than the last 12-month average of US$337mn.
  • YoY growth in IT exports during the month is due to (1) IT export companies growing client base globally, especially in the GCC region, (2) relaxation in the permissible retention limit by the State Bank of Pakistan, increasing it from 35% to 50% in the Exporters’ Specialized Foreign Currency Accounts, (3) allowance of equity investment abroad through these foreign currency accounts and (4) stability in PKR encouraging IT exporters to bring higher portion of profits back to Pakistan.